SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

[SingaporeClarets]

I thought you can only be immune for a few months?

If the cases are falling in Burnley because of herd immunity, does that mean wave 3 is coming in a few months once the immunity expires?

[HahaYeah]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5y51GICqL9E

Dr Mike Yeadon Former CSO & VP Allergy Respiratory Research Pfizer Global R&D 29th Oct 2020

Talking to Anna Brees.

[UnderSeige]

A couple of days ago Imperial College released a report in which they concluded that antibodies fall rapidly after infection. I pointed out that, on the BBC lunchtime news, Professor Chris Smith from Cambridge University explained that antibodies are not the whole story. Whilst the Imperial research is likely to be correct he explained that the immune system also has 'T-Cell Immunity'.

There then followed a discussion on this thread about whether 'T-Cell Immunity' exists. I have now found out that not only Professor Chris Smith and others say it exists but also the 'Imperial College report', that claims that 'antibodies fall', also says that it exists.

Word for word the report says "It is currently not clear what T-Cell Immunity responses and T-Cell memory will play in protective immunity during re-exposure. As such it is not possible to say with certainty that the loss of antibody positivity would correlate with an increased risk of an individual being re-infected".

How did I find this out? Julia Hartley Brewer interviewed the chief architect of the report (Professors Paul Elliott Imperial College) and also Professor Anthonty Brookes (Genetisist and professor of Health Data Sciences at Leicester University). The bit where the transcript of the report is read is 13:30 minutes into the following clip:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vYqpiH1Q8bQ

[dsr]

I thought you can only be immune for a few months?

If the cases are falling in Burnley because of herd immunity, does that mean wave 3 is coming in a few months once the immunity expires?

All that's been suggested is that people who have had coronavirus get progressively fewer antibodies as the disease gets further into the past.

This is normal with viruses.

We know that having the disease provides almost certain immunity for at least 6 months. We don't yet know how much longer than 6 months. It could be for life for all we know, like measles; it could be no less than a year.

[UnderSeige]

I thought you can only be immune for a few months?

If the cases are falling in Burnley because of herd immunity, does that mean wave 3 is coming in a few months once the immunity expires?

Hi Singapore
You get T-Cell immunity. This is the mechanism that the immune system has for destroying cells that are infected with the virus. This lasts for years if not decades.

There are also B memory cells. Once you have recovered from the virus the immune system makes these cells. They are a kind of 'antibody factory'. If the virus is detected again they manufacture enough antibodies for the immune system to fight off the virus.

B memory cells: B lymphocytes are the cells of the immune system that make antibodies to invading pathogens like viruses. They form memory cells that remember the same pathogen for faster antibody production in future infections.
https://bio.libretexts.org/Bookshelves/ ... nfections.

These concepts are not offbeat radical ideas. They are studied in A-Level biology.
https://alevelbiology.co.uk/notes/the-immune-system/

[UnderSeige]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5y51GICqL9E

Dr Mike Yeadon Former CSO & VP Allergy Respiratory Research Pfizer Global R&D 29th Oct 2020

Talking to Anna Brees.

I'll have a listen that later.

[UnderSeige]

Twenty million doses of German Vaccine could be available to the UK by Christmas

The government believes that a German vaccine backed by Pfizer could be ready to distribute before Christmas, with the first doses earmarked for the elderly and vulnerable.

Albert Bourla, the chief executive of Pfizer, said that the vaccine was in the “last mile” and that the pharmaceutical company expected results within a matter of weeks.

Britain has already bought enough doses for 20 million people and is anticipating that some will be available for use immediately if the drug is shown to be successful. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/scie ... -nv03jlvb3

That gives us two vaccine chances this year.

[UnderSeige]

Authorities in US are finding ways of speeding up the second batch of vaccines next year.

Second wave of late-phase Covid-19 vaccine trials unlikely to require a higher efficacy bar for FDA authorisation.
https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/com ... ne-trials/

[UnderSeige]

T cell diversity- A scientific study undertaken and published in one of the worlds foremost scientific journals.

T cells control viral infections and provide immunological memory that enables long-lasting protection1,2,3. Whereas CD4+ helper T cells orchestrate the immune response and enable B cells to produce antibodies, CD8+ cytotoxic T cells eliminate virus-infected cells. For both, recognition of viral antigens in the form of short peptides presented on HLAs is fundamental. In consequence, characterization of such viral T cell epitopes4,5,6 is crucial for the understanding of immune defense mechanisms, but also a prerequisite for the development of vaccines and immunotherapies3

A new study shows that diversity of T cell responses to SARS-CoV-2 was associated with milder symptoms of COVID-19, indicating that immunity requires recognition of multiple viral protein fragments (or epitopes). These findings could guide the design of more effective multi-peptide vaccines. The study also shows that 100% of COVID-19 convalescent individuals had T cell responses to these different epitopes, even if they had no detectable antibodies.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41590-020-00808-x

[UnderSeige]

Good news for older adults
The other day it was reported that the Oxford vaccine is likely to offer some protection to the elderly. It is now looking like the Moderna vaccine will do likewise. This is a vaccine that will be available early next year.

A small study with older adults (over 55 years of age) shows that Moderna´s mRNA-1273 vaccine induced neutralizing-antibody titers similar to those in the 18-55 year-old group, and higher than the levels observed in plasma from convalescent patients.

[cricketfieldclarets]

I thought you can only be immune for a few months?

If the cases are falling in Burnley because of herd immunity, does that mean wave 3 is coming in a few months once the immunity expires?

there is almost no solid evidence that this is the case in most instances. Just anecdotal evidence and one offs.

[mdd2]

The elderly is not a homogenous group and our responses to infection vary as do the young (lost a man in his 20"s from covid recently). We are still awaiting results of the vaccine trials which show a response from the immune system in both antibody responses and T cell responses. We have no idea how these will translate into protection from infection, severity of illness or death nor for how long the effects if any will last.
We do know that native immunity from other seasonal coronaviruses lasts for a short time of the order of 6-12 months but Sars-Covid 1 antibodies hang around a little longer and up to 3 years.
We will need longitudinal studies to follow patients immunity over a prolonged period to try and ascertain the duration of immunity and what the risks are of re-infection over time. The last part is tricky as re-infection will depend on re-exposure.
Presently whilst it is possible to speculate on what might confer immunity we await how the antibody and T cell responses correlate with immunity from infection and if present the duration.

[CombatClaret]

‘Futile and immoral’ to seek herd immunity, says Sweden’s chief epidemiologist.

www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe ... 21541.html?

Mr Tegnell told the German newspaper Die Zeit: 'There has up to now been no infectious disease whose transmission was fully halted by herd immunity without a vaccine.'

Mr Tegnell had previously said there was a 'mixed picture' on immunity, dampening hopes that Sweden's strategy would bring the virus to a standstill once enough people have recovered.

The idea of 'herd immunity' has been touted by those opposed to lockdowns but Mr Tegnell has maintained that it is not part of Sweden's strategy.

He previously said: 'We are measuring it, like many countries are measuring it. When we look at different groups we sometimes find very low values.

'When we look at blood donors, less than 10 per cent of them are immune, if we look at hospital workers in some hospitals, more than 20 per cent of them are immune.

'So it's a really mixed picture and what it means is probably that the spread in the society is very, very uneven.

'So I don't think we're leaning too much on that, we've never done, but now we're mainly looking at number of new cases try to trace them back to their source and doing quite a lot of contact tracing and testing to stop the spread as effectively as possible.'

[SingaporeClarets]

there is almost no solid evidence that this is the case in most instances. Just anecdotal evidence and one offs.

No need for lockdown then, once we all have had it we got t cell immunity?

Or is that just anecdotal evidence too?

[mdd2]

We have no evidence in populations as yet what the T cell immunity implies with Covid-19 only the knowledge that CD4 and CD8 T cells play a role in cell based immunity with the ability to kill cells which carry the virus as well as T cells which promote antibody production in B lymphocytes. Based on other coronaviruses we know that the 4 or5 which cause colds and sniffles that re-infection occurs commonly roughly every 3 years whilst we have no idea about SARS1 as it has gone for now. A lot of info coming out suggesting that the common form of Covid-19 is a mutation which was first noticed in summer in northern Spain and spread rapidly across Europe seemingly coinciding with the easing of lockdowns and foreign travel and is responsible for 90% of UK cases presently. This is a different mutation from a second believed to have made the virus more infectious but less deadly which is still in circulation especially in US and Asia. There is no evidence as yet that there is no cross immunity to these mutations. (All in the Mail but not likely to be fake news-as viruses like this are always mutating-although this seems to be less active than flu at mutating)

[Jakubclaret]

That's a good principle. There is a lot to consider with the elderly during the pandemic:

• There is a danger of 'falls' if left alone for long periods of time. Once on the floor many can't get up and will remain there injured until someone calls. Anyone who has a frail elderly relative and cannot visit them at intervals throughout the day should try to arrange a telecare service so that the emergency services will be contacted when they fall.

• If it's at all possible and within the regulations, try to give them a trip out if that's what they enjoy.

• Most elderly people look forward to relatives visiting but some don't.

• Some elderly relatives get things mixed up.

• We should be careful not to tell them lot's of 'doom mongering' stories about the pandemic that will scare the hell out of them. Explain what is going on in clear terms without trying to scare them.

• We all need to ensure that they are eating properly and that they are not cold. A lot of little practical things can go a long way to help them stay reasonably happy.

Good points, I honestly believe old people are safer indoors generally, regarding the falls you can triple & go far beyond the likelihood outside as opposed to inside & generally lots live in bungalows so no staircases need to be navigated & inside you don't tend to see ice on the floor & the exposure to the cold outside brings lots of health ailments, I'd legitimately argue the old people I've experienced the last place they want to be is outside especially with covid, the reasons are endless, The points above you've mentioned can be addressed by visiting periodically (daily) or if you aren't available another relative or a neighbour can ensure they are being kept warm & fed & socially involved with the outside world.

[mdd2]

There is no need for "the elderly" to be housebound at all. The elderly are not all frail and frequent fallers, there are degrees of frailty too so we need to be careful when talking about those at most risk from Covid. Being out and about but avoiding social mixing and keeping SD wearing masks is perfectly OK for many elderly-even working if that floats their boat. For those immured indoors we need to ensure they are safe, warm, fed and risk assessed for how their home is in regard to being if I can use the term "fall friendly" with light sensors fitted so that they do not get up in the night in the dark. And for the vitamin D lovers make sure they are supplemented appropriately.

[UnderSeige]

No need for lockdown then, once we all have had it we got t cell immunity?

Or is that just anecdotal evidence too?

We are moving towards that point in time when the pandemic ends. That is why are started this thread to start a discussion about how near to the end we are. My uneducated guestimate is spring at the latest.

[mdd2]

We are moving towards that point in time when the pandemic ends. That is why are started this thread to start a discussion about how near to the end we are. My uneducated guestimate is spring at the latest.

So have you moved from your original given that the pandemic remains out of control? I quote "It's possible that SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the next two or three months and almost certainly by the spring."
As you know I have always felt you were optimistic and depending how you define Spring that too maybe a tad early. If the vaccine does not impact on infections other than over a short time frame and only reduces the severity of the illness then although excellent news and a probable end to all the restrictions it will remain a pandemic well into next year to later become endemic. There will always remain the risk of mutations which could fire off another pandemic although if/when it occurs we will be far better prepared to get a vaccine and have better antivirals.
If the vaccine(s) however are much more effective which i doubt then you will be spot on and i hope you are.
My reason for having doubts about vaccines is clinical trials are sometimes halted because the trial drug is harmful or because pretty early on it is obvious that the drug is far more effective than originally considered and it would be unethical to continue using placebo in the at risk group. Now it maybe that in the trial populations there have been too few deaths in either arms of the trials to show a significant reduction in deaths between vaccine treated and placebo. This could have been compounded by selecting a young study group where deaths are unlikely as I do not think the over 60's have been a large group studied in the vaccine trials.
Let's hope your second projection proves correct.

[CombatClaret]

We are moving towards that point in time when the pandemic ends. That is why are started this thread to start a discussion about how near to the end we are. My uneducated guestimate is spring at the latest.

Two days ago you were saying we should all "start to chill out a bit" at time when the virus is running rampant through the county. All the while you post content from lockdownskeptics.org
Every time you're claims are shot down you move the goals post or say it was just idle chat.
It's clear you are trying to spread a false narrative of underplaying the severity of the virus and subtly post content that favors a herd immunity or anti lockdown bias, albeit with the façade that you are just 'looking at all the options', have a 'scientific curiosity' or 'being optimistic'.

I think that whilst following the guidelines we should start to chill out a bit and look forward to the end of the thing. I really don't think that it will be all that long before we can enjoy a pint down at the local.

[UnderSeige]

There is no need for "the elderly" to be housebound at all. The elderly are not all frail and frequent fallers, there are degrees of frailty too so we need to be careful when talking about those at most risk from Covid. Being out and about but avoiding social mixing and keeping SD wearing masks is perfectly OK for many elderly-even working if that floats their boat. For those immured indoors we need to ensure they are safe, warm, fed and risk assessed for how their home is in regard to being if I can use the term "fall friendly" with light sensors fitted so that they do not get up in the night in the dark. And for the vitamin D lovers make sure they are supplemented appropriately.

At this point in time I would argue that 'falls' are a much greater threat to the elderly than Covid. Last year the fantastic North West Ambulance Service attended 91,285 patients who had fallen. Goodness knows what the national figure was. "Around a third of people aged 65 and over, and around half of people aged 80 and over, fall at least once a year"(NWAS).

Many elderly people can't even stand up or get out of bed without help. A number of elderly people can just about move around their house with the help of grab bars and such. These are the one's at risk of falling. If you take a trip down to the A&E department at any time of day or night I can guarantee that there will be several elderly people in the waiting area nursing their wounds.

The NHS recognises this as a very serious problem. So much so that they have set up 'falls teams' all over the North West. In conjunction with the fantastic North West Ambulance Service they do wonderful work. This is the NHS at it's very best.
One of these teams saved my Mothers life when they identified that a 'GP prescribed medication' was causing her to blank out and fall.

There was a 'falls prevention week' in September. The North West Ambulance Service promoted several facts during this week:

• "Every year we respond to thousands of calls where people have fallen".

• "Around a third of people aged 65 and over, and around half of people aged 80 and over, fall at least once a year".

• "Unaddressed fall hazards in the home are estimated to cost the NHS in England £435 million – a staggering amount".

• Last year we attended to 91,285 patients who had fallen.

• Our joint Falls Response Service is trying to tackle this and provides specialist emergency support to people aged 65 and over who have fallen at home or in residential or nursing care.

https://www.nwas.nhs.uk/news/it-is-fall ... week-2020/
https://www.lscft.nhs.uk/Falls-Prevention

[UnderSeige]

We have no evidence in populations as yet what the T cell immunity implies with Covid-19 only the knowledge that CD4 and CD8 T cells play a role in cell based immunity with the ability to kill cells which carry the virus as well as T cells which promote antibody production in B lymphocytes. Based on other coronaviruses we know that the 4 or5 which cause colds and sniffles that re-infection occurs commonly roughly every 3 years whilst we have no idea about SARS1 as it has gone for now. A lot of info coming out suggesting that the common form of Covid-19 is a mutation which was first noticed in summer in northern Spain and spread rapidly across Europe seemingly coinciding with the easing of lockdowns and foreign travel and is responsible for 90% of UK cases presently. This is a different mutation from a second believed to have made the virus more infectious but less deadly which is still in circulation especially in US and Asia. There is no evidence as yet that there is no cross immunity to these mutations. (All in the Mail but not likely to be fake news-as viruses like this are always mutating-although this seems to be less active than flu at mutating)

T cell diversity- A scientific study undertaken and published in one of the worlds foremost scientific journals.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41590-020-00808-x

[CombatClaret]

T cell diversity- A scientific study undertaken and published in one of the worlds foremost scientific journals.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41590-020-00808-x

So many T-Cell posts, he want's us to talk about Herd Immunity.

[cricketfieldclarets]

No need for lockdown then, once we all have had it we got t cell immunity?

Or is that just anecdotal evidence too?

I'm not a scientist or virologist or whatever term. But its pretty well known that thats how viruses work. Im not being blase about it. If there is evidence to suggest reinfection is common and a major issue. obviously it would be a concern. But there is next to no evidence this is the case. Which would suggest that antibodies or t cells or whatever else are at least effective for 6 months minimum now. Thats evident.

[UnderSeige]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5y51GICqL9E

Dr Mike Yeadon Former CSO & VP Allergy Respiratory Research Pfizer Global R&D 29th Oct 2020

Talking to Anna Brees.

That was a very good interview. Like all of his interviews I always come away with a bit more understanding than I had before listening to it.

I think that only time will tell whether he is right or wrong about the 'end of the pandemic'. I do think that he is on to something in saying that we need to shake up testing and get a better testing regime in place.

I think that I will keep following the government guidelines. I think that they have got it about right at the moment.

Thanks for that HahaYeah I don't think I would have come across it if you hadn't posted it.

[UnderSeige]

I'm not a scientist or virologist or whatever term. But its pretty well known that thats how viruses work. Im not being blase about it. If there is evidence to suggest reinfection is common and a major issue. obviously it would be a concern. But there is next to no evidence this is the case. Which would suggest that antibodies or t cells or whatever else are at least effective for 6 months minimum now. Thats evident.

Your right cricketfield. Antibodies are the last line of defence for those who become seriously ill with a respiritory virus. The immune system has several mechanisms for combating virus's. T-Cells destroy cells that have become infected. B memory cells store the memory of the structure of a virus. If the virus invades again they produce new antibodies. There are also cytakins and the macrophage.

T-Cells, B memory cells etc are not some evil plot to undermine the government and get people to ignore the restrictions. They are common knowledge amongst scientists. They are even taught at A-Level.

[FactualFrank]

Your right cricketfield. Antibodies are the last line of defence for those who become seriously ill with a respiritory virus. The immune system has several mechanisms for combating virus's. T-Cells destroy cells that have become infected. B memory cells store the memory of the structure of a virus. If the virus invades again they produce new antibodies. There are also cytakins and the macrophage.

T-Cells, B memory cells etc are not some evil plot to undermine the government and get people to ignore the restrictions. They are common knowledge amongst scientists. They are even taught at A-Level.

There are also Monocytes, Lymphocytes, Neutrophils, and a couple of other Phil's, which the names escape me.

[UnderSeige]

A few stats (not really making any point with these - just adding a bit of perspective)

• Since the beginning of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic (between the period 2 March to 12 June 2020, registered up to 20 June 2020), there were 66,112 deaths of care home residents (wherever the death occurred); of these, 19,394 involved COVID-19, which is 29.3% of all deaths of care home residents. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... rovisional

• From 2 March 2020, of all deaths in hospital involving COVID-19, 15.5% could be accounted for by care home residents.

• Of the deaths involving covid-19 that occured in England and Wales in March to June 2020, there was at least one pre-existing condition in 91.1% of cases.https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... sesofdeath

• Over 9,000 older people die every year as the result of a fall [2] and injuries from falls are one of the leading causes of death for over-75s [3]. For others, the impact of a fall and the resulting injuries can be life-changing, leaving many feeling isolated, anxious and reluctant to leave home. https://www.ageuk.org.uk/latest-press/a ... very-year/

• Age UK has today revealed that 250,000 people aged 65+ in England are treated in hospital as the result of a fall every year https://www.ageuk.org.uk/latest-press/a ... very-year/

[mdd2]

No mention of plasma cells yet. They produce immunoglobulins IgG, IgA, IgD IgE and IgM and are derived from lymphocytes but are bigger and reside in the bone marrow.
IgA is important as a lining antibody and for Covid would be of use in the airways.
AS CF has alluded it may be better, if assuming anything, until proved otherwise that re-infection with Covid increases as antibodies decline in a way similar to the four cold viruses where "immunity" is 1-3 years before you are likely to get a second dose.
Personally this virus is so new we should assume nothing until studies show 1) what "cures" this 2) when can you get re-infected 3) whether the vaccines affect the chances of getting infected, the duration of the disease and its severity 4) the duration of 3 after having had a vaccine.

[CombatClaret]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5y51GICqL9E
Dr Mike Yeadon Former CSO & VP Allergy Respiratory Research Pfizer Global R&D 29th Oct 2020
Talking to Anna Brees.

Is this the same Mike Yeadon writing for https://lockdownsceptics.org/what-sage-got-wrong/
The same site UnderSeige likes to post content from

Well done for managing to cherry pick one scientist who back ups your fringe views and is in opposition of the 300+ scientist and doctors on the SAGE group and sub committees.

[cricketfieldclarets]

A few stats (not really making any point with these - just adding a bit of perspective)

• Since the beginning of the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic (between the period 2 March to 12 June 2020, registered up to 20 June 2020), there were 66,112 deaths of care home residents (wherever the death occurred); of these, 19,394 involved COVID-19, which is 29.3% of all deaths of care home residents. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... rovisional

• From 2 March 2020, of all deaths in hospital involving COVID-19, 15.5% could be accounted for by care home residents.

• Of the deaths involving covid-19 that occured in England and Wales in March to June 2020, there was at least one pre-existing condition in 91.1% of cases.https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... sesofdeath

• Over 9,000 older people die every year as the result of a fall [2] and injuries from falls are one of the leading causes of death for over-75s [3]. For others, the impact of a fall and the resulting injuries can be life-changing, leaving many feeling isolated, anxious and reluctant to leave home. https://www.ageuk.org.uk/latest-press/a ... very-year/

• Age UK has today revealed that 250,000 people aged 65+ in England are treated in hospital as the result of a fall every year https://www.ageuk.org.uk/latest-press/a ... very-year/

Good to understand the context.

[cricketfieldclarets]

No mention of plasma cells yet. They produce immunoglobulins IgG, IgA, IgD IgE and IgM and are derived from lymphocytes but are bigger and reside in the bone marrow.
IgA is important as a lining antibody and for Covid would be of use in the airways.
AS CF has alluded it may be better, if assuming anything, until proved otherwise that re-infection with Covid increases as antibodies decline in a way similar to the four cold viruses where "immunity" is 1-3 years before you are likely to get a second dose.
Personally this virus is so new we should assume nothing until studies show 1) what "cures" this 2) when can you get re-infected 3) whether the vaccines affect the chances of getting infected, the duration of the disease and its severity 4) the duration of 3 after having had a vaccine.

all fair points

[CombatClaret]

I think that I will keep following the government guidelines. I think that they have got it about right at the moment.

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[mdd2]

Age UK has today revealed that 250,000 people aged 65+ in England are treated in hospital as the result of a fall every year https://www.ageuk.org.uk/latest-press/a ... very-year/
And a fair number because they are Brahms and Liszt. Save from that problem and getting rid of a lot of medications they are on, falls prevention in the frail elderly is not easy or successful in my experience.

[UnderSeige]

Age UK has today revealed that 250,000 people aged 65+ in England are treated in hospital as the result of a fall every year https://www.ageuk.org.uk/latest-press/a ... very-year/
And a fair number because they are Brahms and Liszt. Save from that problem and getting rid of a lot of medications they are on, falls prevention in the frail elderly is not easy or successful in my experience.

You will find that one thing that I can't stand is any form of bigotry or discrimination.

You need to provide facts and figures to prove the 'alcohol claim' otherwise your accusation against the elderly is disgusting and also ageist (a form of bigotry that aims to dehumanise and create prejudice against a certain group of people within the population like racism or homophobia).

Many of the people who end up in A&E are aged and disabled. Many are frail and weak. Just because they are frail and elderly doesn't mean that their lives don't matter and we can castigate them. The NHS treats the problem of accidents at home very seriously.

Get back to debate. You provide some good arguments but don't target groups of the population.

[UnderSeige]

I think that personal attacks both on other posters and 'groups of society' are beginning to creep into the debate. This is unnecessary. To those doing it, calm down. Let's have a bit of maturity. It's not that important if someone disagrees with you. It shows that you are losing the debate when you resort to this.

[HahaYeah]

Is this the same Mike Yeadon writing for https://lockdownsceptics.org/what-sage-got-wrong/
The same site UnderSeige likes to post content from

Well done for managing to cherry pick one scientist who back ups your fringe views and is in opposition of the 300+ scientist and doctors on the SAGE group and sub committees.

A, Yes.

B, Thanks, you're welcome.

[Devils_Advocate]

Anyone pushing the lockdown sceptic narrative thats pedalled by people like James Delingpole and Julia Hartley Brewer and funded by big business with an agenda to protect the billions they make in their businesses and city property portfolios needs calling out and challenging. Especially so if they are dressing it up in good intellectual debate

If you consider this as personal attacks and dont like it then thats up to you but I equally dislike people spreading misinformation and/or misrepresenting real data in a way that becomes misinformation.

When you stop pedalling this anti lockdown agenda I'll have sympathy about your objection to people being frank and critical of you.

[ksrclaret]

It would be very nice to have some balance to this debate. I think people need to realise that a lockdown in an extreme position, just as "letting the virus rip" is an extreme position. Amazing that people view a lockdown as something so blasé, so much so it becomes an "agenda" to say "hang on minute, is this really the best option with all the non-covid suffering it causes?"

Totally bizarre behaviour.

[mdd2]

Oh dear US unlike you to shoot from the hip
Let me educate you
One of the questions to elderly fallers and their relatives is their medication and alcohol consumption as covert drink problems are a real problem in some elderly and this is sometimes missed by caters and relatives and medics if you are not aware as clearly you are not
My posting on this is from more years of experience than you may have had of life depending upon your age of course
Assuming I think I know a bit about you, I accept your apology

[ksrclaret]

Anyone pushing the lockdown sceptic narrative thats pedalled by people like James Delingpole and Julia Hartley Brewer and funded by big business with an agenda to protect the billions they make in their businesses and city property portfolios needs calling out and challenging. Especially so if they are dressing it up in good intellectual debate

If you consider this as personal attacks and dont like it then thats up to you but I equally dislike people spreading misinformation and/or misrepresenting real data in a way that becomes misinformation.

When you stop pedalling this anti lockdown agenda I'll have sympathy about your objection to people being frank and critical of you.

Oh dear. Laziest post I've seen a while. I can assure you it's not just people with big business interests that don't want another lockdown. The whole idea of lockdown sceptics is bizarre. Every single person should be sceptical of a lockdown. Doesn't mean you "want to let the virus rip", it just means you're very wary of causing more untold suffering and, yes, deaths. Very, very concerning that it's just become an accepted thing to do.

[mdd2]

I think I have stated it before and it is striking a balance and we will never get it right
How a lockdown affects you as an individual will be how you judge a lockdown
The benefits are known from the last one
The downsides are also largely known
What is not known is how best to protect society from Covid whilst also preserving the economy mental and physical health as well as not stopping the other NHS work and importantly education in schools and University

[ksrclaret]

Well lockdown was a bit of a pain for me, I like being able to do things, but on the whole I came out of it just fine. No loss of income, no prospect of losing my job, no worries about putting food on the table or keeping a roof over my head. Sure I had to adapt to doing things online which I didn't enjoy that much, but it barely affected me at all. And yet, I judged it to be a complete disaster on so many levels - education, mental health, unemployment, the economy, undiagnosed diseases, more deaths at home from non-communicable diseases.

You're right that we don't know how best to work through it all and how best to manage all the risks, but just going back to the the most extreme measure whilst we try and work it out doesn't really wash. I can see why people will default back to that position because it's a safety blanket for some, but it's the total clarity that people do it with that terrifies me. "Anti-lockdown agendas" and "lockdown sceptics" are the new and fashionable labels for someone who wants a debate about whether there's a better alternative. Scary times indeed.

[UnderSeige]

Oh dear. Laziest post I've seen a while. I can assure you it's not just people with big business interests that don't want another lockdown. The whole idea of lockdown sceptics is bizarre. Every single person should be sceptical of a lockdown. Doesn't mean you "want to let the virus rip", it just means you're very wary of causing more untold suffering and, yes, deaths. Very, very concerning that it's just become an accepted thing to do.

I think that the government have got things about right at the moment. We should be following the guidelines and supporting one another. That doesn't mean that people cannot have points of view. I am somewhere in the middle of all this.

I would not like us to go into further restricted lockdown because I don't think it will be necessary but I do believe that the government are doing a good job at the moment. Testing needs to be improved with better high qualities tests but the restrictions are about right as I have posted many times.

This 'herd immunity' argument that I make is not an argument for an 'herd immunity policy'. It is an argument that the population is moving towards 'herd immunity' naturally. We may even be nearly there and this is my hope. I want to see the end of this thing and have not yet seen much in the data that is contradictory to this view. I have also said many times that if the data changes so will my viewpoint.

Debate should include all types of opinions from a variety of sources. As long as those sources are not peddling bigotry or law breaking I am happy to hear all points of view. In the 1980's I liked both Margaret Thatcher and Tony Ben. Two extremes you might think. Yes they opposed one another but they were also best of friends.

[Grumps]

I think that the government have got things about right at the moment. We should be following the guidelines and supporting one another. That doesn't mean that people cannot have points of view. I am somewhere in the middle of all this.

I would not like us to go into further restricted lockdown because I don't think it will be necessary but I do believe that the government are doing a good job at the moment. Testing needs to be improved with better high qualities tests but the restrictions are about right as I have posted many times.

This 'herd immunity' argument that I make is not an argument for an 'herd immunity policy'. It is an argument that the population is moving towards 'herd immunity' naturally. We may even be nearly there and this is my hope. I want to see the end of this thing and have not yet seen much in the data that is contradictory to this view. I have also said many times that if the data changes so will my viewpoint.

Debate should include all types of opinions from a variety of sources. As long as those sources are not peddling bigotry or law breaking I am happy to hear all points of view. In the 1980's I liked both Margaret Thatcher and Tony Ben. Two extremes you might think. Yes they opposed one another but they were also best of friends.

I agree completely with this post... Common sense, no abuse because others think differently, fair and balanced.

[UnderSeige]

I think I have stated it before and it is striking a balance and we will never get it right
How a lockdown affects you as an individual will be how you judge a lockdown
The benefits are known from the last one
The downsides are also largely known
What is not known is how best to protect society from Covid whilst also preserving the economy mental and physical health as well as not stopping the other NHS work and importantly education in schools and University

And a fair number because they are Brahms and Liszt.

It's more phrasing that you used was ageist and bigotry. I have seen many elderly people in A&E. I can't recall any that were drunk.

Burnley Football Club do a lot to help the elderly and disabled. They make special areas in the ground where they can sit and the elderly get concessions on their season tickets. They make the elderly and disabled feel welcome. It's something that every Burnley fan should be proud of. It's not just racism that we need to kick out of football it's all the 'ism's'.

As far as I am concerned we need to get back to the debate but I make no apology for defending one of the weakest groups in society from bigotry.

[Devils_Advocate]

Oh dear. Laziest post I've seen a while. I can assure you it's not just people with big business interests that don't want another lockdown. The whole idea of lockdown sceptics is bizarre. Every single person should be sceptical of a lockdown. Doesn't mean you "want to let the virus rip", it just means you're very wary of causing more untold suffering and, yes, deaths. Very, very concerning that it's just become an accepted thing to do.

I never said it was just big business but these are the people paying the likes of James Delingpole and JHB who have platforms to spread their misinformation.

My post wasn't aimed at you as you've just been posting your very strong opinion and been pretty clear and straightforward about your views. Whilst I disagree with you and think making out that the media is ignoring positive news and that people who see some form of lockdown and measures (alongside other stuff) are revelling in misery is not a great look ive no problem with you representing it honestly like you have done.

My issue is with people who are in my view are deliberately posting misinformation to support an agenda driven view which is no good way to debate and tackle a virus. They can take that approach but they need to accept that people will call them out on it like Combat has done

[ksrclaret]

I think that the government have got things about right at the moment. We should be following the guidelines and supporting one another. That doesn't mean that people cannot have points of view. I am somewhere in the middle of all this.

I would not like us to go into further restricted lockdown because I don't think it will be necessary but I do believe that the government are doing a good job at the moment. Testing needs to be improved with better high qualities tests but the restrictions are about right as I have posted many times.

This 'herd immunity' argument that I make is not an argument for an 'herd immunity policy'. It is an argument that the population is moving towards 'herd immunity' naturally. We may even be nearly there and this is my hope. I want to see the end of this thing and have not yet seen much in the data that is contradictory to this view. I have also said many times that if the data changes so will my viewpoint.

Debate should include all types of opinions from a variety of sources. As long as those sources are not peddling bigotry or law breaking I am happy to hear all points of view. In the 1980's I liked both Margaret Thatcher and Tony Ben. Two extremes you might think. Yes they opposed one another but they were also best of friends.

Agree entirely with that. With regards to your posts about herd immunity, everyone rational could see that you were not advocating such a policy, but as you say were simply stating that we're moving towards that with every infection. Everyone hopes that can be achieved quickly, that's why everyone is so eager to have a vaccine. Sadly, some people see the term "herd immunity" and immediately attack without actually reading the words.

It is scary how quickly debate is shut down on this topic though. I've seen your posts described as dangerous. In my opinion, the dangerous thing is not hearing different opinions at all.

[ksrclaret]

I never said it was just big business but these are the people paying the likes of James Delingpole and JHB who have platforms to spread their misinformation.

My post wasn't aimed at you as you've just been posting your very strong opinion and been pretty clear and straightforward about your views. Whilst I disagree with you and think making out that the media is ignoring positive news and that people who see some form of lockdown and measures (alongside other stuff) are revelling in misery is not a great look ive no problem with you representing it honestly like you have done.

My issue is with people who are in my view are deliberately posting misinformation to support an agenda driven view which is no good way to debate and tackle a virus. They can take that approach but they need to accept that people will call them out on it like Combat has done

I don't think everyone who sees lockdown as an answer are revelling in misery - I know some people reluctantly come to this view from seeing things close up, like those who work in hospitals. I completely understand and accept that.

It was more in response to those who've suggested good news should be banned for a while, and that posting updates on potential breakthroughs was a dangerous agenda. That I can't get my head around. If we don't have hope, what's left?

[CombatClaret]

Coronavirus: Second wave death toll set to exceed worst-case scenario, Sage warns

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/heal ... 51614.html

The number of deaths caused by coronavirus is likely to exceed the government’s worst-case scenario predictions with ministers being told the second wave is too far advanced now for a short circuit-breaker lockdown to stop it.