SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

This Forum is the main messageboard to discuss all things Claret and Blue and beyond
mdd2
Posts: 6012
Joined: Thu Jan 14, 2016 8:47 pm
Been Liked: 1665 times
Has Liked: 700 times

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by mdd2 » Wed Oct 21, 2020 8:50 pm

Fingers crossed US, fingers legs and toes crossed :)

keith1879
Posts: 865
Joined: Thu Apr 21, 2016 1:28 pm
Been Liked: 262 times
Has Liked: 363 times

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by keith1879 » Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:18 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 8:30 pm

To put this into perspective we are around forty days into the second peak. Forty days into the first peak (25 Apr) the seven day moving average was 798 and falling. The top of the first peak was 943 on 14 Apr. It took around 29 days to reach this figure. After this it fell quite sharply to 212 by the end of May and 60 by the end of June. Of course the spring weather was good and we were in a stricter lockdown having shipped many elderly patients into care homes and we were not wearing masks.
I think what is more significant is what had happened in the 3 weeks or so prior to those 40 days. We were making no effort at all to curb the spread of the virus, no social distancing, everyone acting as normal....hence when you start your 40 day count in mid March we had already sowed the seeds of the exponential growth in deaths....plus of course the sudden offloading of infected patients into care homes.

It would be appalling indeed if we reached the same sort of figures now with all the behavioural changes in place.

UnderSeige
Been Liked: 1 time
Has Liked: 826 times

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Thu Oct 22, 2020 11:08 am

keith1879 wrote:
Wed Oct 21, 2020 9:18 pm
I think what is more significant is what had happened in the 3 weeks or so prior to those 40 days. We were making no effort at all to curb the spread of the virus, no social distancing, everyone acting as normal....hence when you start your 40 day count in mid March we had already sowed the seeds of the exponential growth in deaths....plus of course the sudden offloading of infected patients into care homes.

It would be appalling indeed if we reached the same sort of figures now with all the behavioural changes in place.
There was a complacency in February and even into March. The 'World Health Organisation' calmed down fears of a pandemic and did not even declare the pandemic until March 11th. They then went on to say that mask wearing was counter productive.

The French Army burned over a billion face masks in a 'cost saving exercise' just before the pandemic began leaving the French Healthcare system with a shortage of PPI and contributing to the general PPI shortage in Western Europe. The UK supplies of PPI were low and the UK health authorities were telling Care Homes and 'Home Care Companies' that they didn't need to stock up on PPI.
The facemask fiasco has had a tremendous impact on public faith in President Macron, who faces accusations of incompetence. Leading pollsters say the news has 'really damaged his image'.

The centrist president's government has also been accused of dishonesty for initially telling the public there was no point in wearing masks outside.

Some say this message was an attempt to disguise the fact that there were not enough masks for everyone. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... avirus.html
Flights rolled in from China and Italy with no checks. I can remember Nigel Farage going balistic about this when he had an LBC radio programme.

Track and trace was dropped and a brief flirtation with a 'herd immunity policy' was adopted in the UK. Once the 'inbound infection had been allowed in we did not go into lockdown until it looked like the NHS was going to be overwhelmed.

It all reminds me of a Churchill quote "those chilling words from history - too late".

tiger76
Posts: 25697
Joined: Sat Jun 24, 2017 9:43 pm
Been Liked: 4644 times
Has Liked: 9849 times
Location: Glasgow

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by tiger76 » Thu Oct 22, 2020 8:17 pm

This is a positive development, if we can't eradicate or contain this disease then at least we can treat it much better than we could in the spring and that's important.https://uk.yahoo.com/news/very-ill-covi ... 0117.html

And another couple of good news articles here.

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-n ... 6508.html

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/covid-19-not- ... 8933.html

UnderSeige
Been Liked: 1 time
Has Liked: 826 times

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Thu Oct 22, 2020 8:56 pm

tiger76 wrote:
Thu Oct 22, 2020 8:17 pm
This is a positive development, if we can't eradicate or contain this disease then at least we can treat it much better than we could in the spring and that's important.https://uk.yahoo.com/news/very-ill-covi ... 0117.html

And another couple of good news articles here.

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-n ... 6508.html

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/covid-19-not- ... 8933.html
I wouldn't be surprised if there are a number of further treatments over the coming months. There has also been quite a bit of evidence that simple supplements can go a long way to helping people fight off the virus before it begins to develop into the COVID-19 illness that causes hospitalisation. I take Vitamin D, C and zinc and also elderberry syrup.

Even the UK government (PHE or whoever) recommend a small dose of vit D 400 IU per day but seem reluctant to advise people to take a larger dose for COVID-19 protection. Most western governments are reluctant to recommend the cheaper medicines and supplements - even when research is indicating that they have a positive affect.
https://www.nutraingredients.com/Articl ... =copyright

The other articles you posted are good too. Yet another scientist (Professor Paul Lehner of the University of Cambridge) arguing that we are edging towards 'herd immunity'.
This user liked this post: Quicknick

mdd2
Posts: 6012
Joined: Thu Jan 14, 2016 8:47 pm
Been Liked: 1665 times
Has Liked: 700 times

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by mdd2 » Thu Oct 22, 2020 9:08 pm

I take 40,000 units of colecalciferol (vit D) once per month as a just in case scenario knowing that it may do some good and cannot do me harm as I do not have any disease where such a dose could be harmful. Caution is needed when dosing with fat soluble vitamins like D which is why the UK Government remains wary of recommending bigger doses than 400IU/day because of the vitamin D poisoning that occurred here in the late 1940's from fortifying dried milk powder to be given to babies. Dexamethasone remains the big life saver as well as better ventilation methods whilst we await the culmination of trials as mentioned above. Remdesivir unfortunately is not effective in those who need ITU but does reduce recovery time in the milder cases. Manchester is getting clobbered (as is Liverpool) with cases at present with in some hospitals a five fold increase in patients in the last 6 weeks.
Looking like there maybe an expectation of a fall off in deaths after about the next 4-5 weeks as the number of new cases does appear to be dropping for now.

UnderSeige
Been Liked: 1 time
Has Liked: 826 times

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Thu Oct 22, 2020 9:27 pm

First Nightingale Hospital re-opens to treat patients who are in recovery from COVID-19.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ients.html

Curiously in the same article there is a list of charts for ' Daily Case Rates' for a number of towns in the Greater Manchester Area. Some of these graphs show a 'flattening off'. Some of them are still showing an increase. The Manchester one looks to be in decline. Here's a short selection. More can be seen on the link.

Image

Image

Image

Image

UnderSeige
Been Liked: 1 time
Has Liked: 826 times

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Thu Oct 22, 2020 9:31 pm

mdd2 wrote:
Thu Oct 22, 2020 9:08 pm
Looking like there maybe an expectation of a fall off in deaths after about the next 4-5 weeks as the number of new cases does appear to be dropping for now.
Is this just in the North West? The national cases look to be rising unfortunately.

UnderSeige
Been Liked: 1 time
Has Liked: 826 times

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Thu Oct 22, 2020 10:03 pm

mdd2 wrote:
Thu Oct 22, 2020 9:08 pm
I take 40,000 units of colecalciferol (vit D) once per month as a just in case scenario knowing that it may do some good and cannot do me harm as I do not have any disease where such a dose could be harmful. Caution is needed when dosing with fat soluble vitamins like D which is why the UK Government remains wary of recommending bigger doses than 400IU/day because of the vitamin D poisoning that occurred here in the late 1940's from fortifying dried milk powder to be given to babies. Dexamethasone remains the big life saver as well as better ventilation methods whilst we await the culmination of trials as mentioned above. Remdesivir unfortunately is not effective in those who need ITU but does reduce recovery time in the milder cases. Manchester is getting clobbered (as is Liverpool) with cases at present with in some hospitals a five fold increase in patients in the last 6 weeks.
Ivermectin is looking like a cheap and effective treatment. Especially in combination with the following: Ivermectin, Doxycycline, Zinc and Vitamin D3.
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... 601262.ece
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 4220302011
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... 601262.ece
https://www.trialsitenews.com/well-resp ... covid-19/
https://vaccineindia.org/article/iverme ... -in-covid
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bbGG79WGmu4

Countries such as India and Pakistan are using Ivermectin. They have also been using hydroxychloraquin up to Ivermectin being proved more effective.

India is probably one of the countries that that you would expect to see high 'mortality rates' in. Dense population in many areas; overcrowding, a lot of slum type accommodation etc.

India Total cases 7,759,640 (as you would expect)
UK Total cases----- 810,467

India Total Deaths 117,336 (Daily rate has been falling since mid September)
UK --Total Deaths - 44,347

India Deaths per 1 million of the population: 85
UK...Deaths per 1 million of the population: 652

What are they getting right that we failed to grasp in the West? Cheap 'already approved' medicines that are effective in treating COVID-19 perhaps?
This user liked this post: Quicknick

dsr
Posts: 15138
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:47 pm
Been Liked: 4549 times
Has Liked: 2241 times

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by dsr » Thu Oct 22, 2020 10:49 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Thu Oct 22, 2020 10:03 pm
Ivermectin is looking like a cheap and effective treatment. Especially in combination with the following: Ivermectin, Doxycycline, Zinc and Vitamin D3.
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... 601262.ece
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 4220302011
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... 601262.ece
https://www.trialsitenews.com/well-resp ... covid-19/
https://vaccineindia.org/article/iverme ... -in-covid
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bbGG79WGmu4

Countries such as India and Pakistan are using Ivermectin. They have also been using hydroxychloraquin up to Ivermectin being proved more effective.

India is probably one of the countries that that you would expect to see high 'mortality rates' in. Dense population in many areas; overcrowding, a lot of slum type accommodation etc.

India Total cases 7,759,640 (as you would expect)
UK Total cases----- 810,467

India Total Deaths 117,336 (Daily rate has been falling since mid September)
UK --Total Deaths - 44,347

India Deaths per 1 million of the population: 85
UK...Deaths per 1 million of the population: 652

What are they getting right that we failed to grasp in the West? Cheap 'already approved' medicines that are effective in treating COVID-19 perhaps?
Essentially, what Indians are doing "right" is dying of something else before they reach the vulnerable age. Average age of coronavirus victims is 82 in this country, at least. Average life expectancy in the UK, 81.0. Average life exepctancy in India, 67.6.

And I know that may be skewed by infant mortality, so look at it another way. 4.7% of the UK population are over 80; 0.9% of the India population are over 80. Hence they have fewer people made vulnerable by old age which is bound to help their death rates.

And of course, as you are surely aware, the UK figure for total cases is utterly meaningless. (So may the Indian one be, for all I know.) They weren't counting asymptomatic cases in March/April, they are now.
This user liked this post: Quicknick

UnderSeige
Been Liked: 1 time
Has Liked: 826 times

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:05 am

dsr wrote:
Thu Oct 22, 2020 10:49 pm
Essentially, what Indians are doing "right" is dying of something else before they reach the vulnerable age. Average age of coronavirus victims is 82 in this country, at least. Average life expectancy in the UK, 81.0. Average life exepctancy in India, 67.6.

And I know that may be skewed by infant mortality, so look at it another way. 4.7% of the UK population are over 80; 0.9% of the India population are over 80. Hence they have fewer people made vulnerable by old age which is bound to help their death rates.

And of course, as you are surely aware, the UK figure for total cases is utterly meaningless. (So may the Indian one be, for all I know.) They weren't counting asymptomatic cases in March/April, they are now.
Some very good points that explain a lot but you would still expect a much higher death rate in India where many people live closely together in slum conditions. It would be interesting to know how many are receiving these cheap treatments and recovering.

mdd2
Posts: 6012
Joined: Thu Jan 14, 2016 8:47 pm
Been Liked: 1665 times
Has Liked: 700 times

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by mdd2 » Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:51 am

within those papers (and have not looked at all of them as there is a tendency to avoid the placebo controlled double blinded studies) is one such single use good study showing primary prevention of covid-19 with ivermectin and this is a very well known drug in the "third world" for treating worm infestations. Five trials in Europe on going on the efficacy of ivermectin for Covid-19

dsr
Posts: 15138
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 12:47 pm
Been Liked: 4549 times
Has Liked: 2241 times

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by dsr » Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:57 am

UnderSeige wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:05 am
Some very good points that explain a lot but you would still expect a much higher death rate in India where many people live closely together in slum conditions. It would be interesting to know how many are receiving these cheap treatments and recovering.
It could also be that a virus left essentially unchecked has different characteristics than a virus bottled up. Brazil's excess death rate to June was well below ours, though I'm not sure what's happened since; they had no official lockdown at all and so many of their people are too poor to give up work for any reason, so I dare say their virus was more or less unchecked.

A report by the University of Princeton (USA) and the University of Brasilia put their excess deaths for any reason for those months at 22%. The UK was about 45% for that period.

Peru, incidentally had very strict lockdown for April to June. But when it was released, deaths went through the roof - they have the highest coronavirus death rate of any country in the world that keeps good records.

(Brazil does not keep good coronavirus records, which is why their total deaths from all causes is a more useful statistic.)

IAmAClaret
Posts: 776
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:38 am
Been Liked: 349 times
Has Liked: 306 times
Location: Only in your Imagination

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by IAmAClaret » Fri Oct 23, 2020 10:04 am

For much more detailed and local numbers, look at https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/about-d ... -area-msoa

Download the 'xlsx' and use the various options.

Here are some quick snippets of areas over the past 5 weeks - some clear trends can be seen.

Burnley:
msoa_burnley_areas.jpg
msoa_burnley_areas.jpg (46.79 KiB) Viewed 2930 times
Rossendale:
msoa_rossendale_areas.jpg
msoa_rossendale_areas.jpg (26.91 KiB) Viewed 2930 times


Hyndburn:
msoa_hyndburn_areas.jpg
msoa_hyndburn_areas.jpg (30.8 KiB) Viewed 2930 times
Last edited by IAmAClaret on Fri Oct 23, 2020 10:57 am, edited 1 time in total.

IAmAClaret
Posts: 776
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:38 am
Been Liked: 349 times
Has Liked: 306 times
Location: Only in your Imagination

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by IAmAClaret » Fri Oct 23, 2020 10:08 am

Ribble:
ribble_msoa_areas.jpg
ribble_msoa_areas.jpg (31.05 KiB) Viewed 2925 times

UnderSeige
Been Liked: 1 time
Has Liked: 826 times

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Fri Oct 23, 2020 11:39 am

mdd2 wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:51 am
within those papers (and have not looked at all of them as there is a tendency to avoid the placebo controlled double blinded studies) is one such single use good study showing primary prevention of covid-19 with ivermectin and this is a very well known drug in the "third world" for treating worm infestations. Five trials in Europe on going on the efficacy of ivermectin for Covid-19
Lets hope the trials are successful. This could be a big game changer and allow society to get back to some kind of normal before a vaccine or herd immunity.

The only problem is that there is no money to be made out of it.
This user liked this post: Quicknick

cricketfieldclarets
Posts: 21464
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:59 pm
Been Liked: 8585 times
Has Liked: 11285 times

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Fri Oct 23, 2020 11:49 am

UnderSeige wrote:
Thu Oct 22, 2020 10:03 pm
Ivermectin is looking like a cheap and effective treatment. Especially in combination with the following: Ivermectin, Doxycycline, Zinc and Vitamin D3.
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... 601262.ece
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 4220302011
https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/ ... 601262.ece
https://www.trialsitenews.com/well-resp ... covid-19/
https://vaccineindia.org/article/iverme ... -in-covid
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bbGG79WGmu4

Countries such as India and Pakistan are using Ivermectin. They have also been using hydroxychloraquin up to Ivermectin being proved more effective.

India is probably one of the countries that that you would expect to see high 'mortality rates' in. Dense population in many areas; overcrowding, a lot of slum type accommodation etc.

India Total cases 7,759,640 (as you would expect)
UK Total cases----- 810,467

India Total Deaths 117,336 (Daily rate has been falling since mid September)
UK --Total Deaths - 44,347

India Deaths per 1 million of the population: 85
UK...Deaths per 1 million of the population: 652

What are they getting right that we failed to grasp in the West? Cheap 'already approved' medicines that are effective in treating COVID-19 perhaps?
As pointed out probably a number of factors not necesarily treatment.

Younger age range (as is the case in Africa)
Perhaps by living more closely together there is more herd immunity (from this and other coronaviruses)
Perhaps an under reporting of the stats (both infections and deaths)
Perhaps the weather.
Diet - Despite what people may think, the diet in india is likely to be reasonably good as they have far less processed and junk foods

UnderSeige
Been Liked: 1 time
Has Liked: 826 times

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:06 pm

dsr wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 9:57 am
It could also be that a virus left essentially unchecked has different characteristics than a virus bottled up. Brazil's excess death rate to June was well below ours, though I'm not sure what's happened since; they had no official lockdown at all and so many of their people are too poor to give up work for any reason, so I dare say their virus was more or less unchecked.

A report by the University of Princeton (USA) and the University of Brasilia put their excess deaths for any reason for those months at 22%. The UK was about 45% for that period.

Peru, incidentally had very strict lockdown for April to June. But when it was released, deaths went through the roof - they have the highest coronavirus death rate of any country in the world that keeps good records.

(Brazil does not keep good coronavirus records, which is why their total deaths from all causes is a more useful statistic.)
From the perspective of March, once the inbound infection had entered the UK and was growing exponentially it looked like there was no option but to lock down. The health services would have been overwhelmed otherwise.

What we know now is that the pandemic is only severely affecting a proportion of the population (the z's vulnerable group). There is another part of the population that it just bounces off without any effect (x's) and a middle group that have a short term illness but quickly recover (y's).

Like you say if you have lockdowns all that it does is buy you time at the expense of economic slowdown,' government debt building' and peoples livelyhoods. Once the lockdown is lifted the virus starts to take off again. From what I can see through the current UK data, most of the 'severe damage' was done in March/April.

The virus is now moving through the Y's who are socially active. It does not look like it is growing exponentially. It does not look like it is going to overwhelm hospitals except for a few hotspot regions. The mortality rates are bad but low compared to April. There comes a time in the not to distant future when it ceases to be a pandemic but is likely to remain a nasty illness/virus for some time that is comparable to some of the other illnesses and viruses that the health services face every year.
These 3 users liked this post: Vintage Claret cricketfieldclarets Quicknick

bfcmik
Posts: 3594
Joined: Thu Jan 14, 2016 2:03 pm
Been Liked: 891 times
Has Liked: 1100 times
Location: Solihull Geriatric Centre

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by bfcmik » Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:25 pm

I have just watched a video of a guy who sent for a covid test kit. He didn't swab anything just unwrapped it, put it straight into the container, snapped off the handle part, sealed it in the pot, sealed it in the non-unsealable plastic bag and placed it into the larger plastic packaging and box. 5 days later he got a positive result back from SERCO along with email and text messages about his 10 day quarantine.

Vintage Claret
Posts: 2201
Joined: Sun Jan 24, 2016 3:03 pm
Been Liked: 932 times
Has Liked: 607 times

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by Vintage Claret » Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:34 pm

Video was mentioned on another Covid thread, there appears to be some doubts as to it's authenticity..

bfcmik
Posts: 3594
Joined: Thu Jan 14, 2016 2:03 pm
Been Liked: 891 times
Has Liked: 1100 times
Location: Solihull Geriatric Centre

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by bfcmik » Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:02 pm

Vintage Claret wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:34 pm
Video was mentioned on another Covid thread, there appears to be some doubts as to it's authenticity..
Someone my cousin's wife knows went for a walk-in test in Burnley. They had no symptoms but at the time they were trying to get everyone tested. Registered and queued for two hours, got fed up of waiting and went home without a test. 48 hours later she was informed that she was positive!

keith1879
Posts: 865
Joined: Thu Apr 21, 2016 1:28 pm
Been Liked: 262 times
Has Liked: 363 times

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by keith1879 » Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:06 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:06 pm


The virus is now moving through the Y's who are socially active. It does not look like it is growing exponentially. It does not look like it is going to overwhelm hospitals except for a few hotspot regions. The mortality rates are bad but low compared to April. There comes a time in the not to distant future when it ceases to be a pandemic but is likely to remain a nasty illness/virus for some time that is comparable to some of the other illnesses and viruses that the health services face every year.
Currently confirmed cases are doubling every 16/17 days (using 7dma figures) while deaths are doubling every 9/10 days. Surely that is exponential growth? I still hope that you are right in your optimism.

UnderSeige
Been Liked: 1 time
Has Liked: 826 times

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:37 pm

bfcmik wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:02 pm
Someone my cousin's wife knows went for a walk-in test in Burnley. They had no symptoms but at the time they were trying to get everyone tested. Registered and queued for two hours, got fed up of waiting and went home without a test. 48 hours later she was informed that she was positive!
I wonder if they are getting the tests mixed up and people are receiving results from other peoples tests?

There is a general principle with any form of 'virus testing'. 'The greater the number of test cases' the more inacurate they become'. In April all tests were for people admitted to hospital with symptoms. It was fairly obvious they had covid. The test just confirmed it.

The NHS tests are testing for 'virus particles'. Dead virus particles can still be in a persons system from catching the virus months ago. The tests could be falsely identifying these people as positive. There are some more accurate forms of testing that also turn the results around within a short time. I believe that airports are using them

Larger numbers also give rise to more administrative errors.

UnderSeige
Been Liked: 1 time
Has Liked: 826 times

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Fri Oct 23, 2020 2:00 pm

keith1879 wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:06 pm
Currently confirmed cases are doubling every 16/17 days (using 7dma figures) while deaths are doubling every 9/10 days. Surely that is exponential growth? I still hope that you are right in your optimism.
If mortalities continue to double every 10 days (7day average):
Current: 150
Nov 1st: 300
Nov 11th: 600
Nov 21st: 1,200
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Yes your right. If that continues we will be above the April rate by mid November. The peak was 943 per day in April.
In March/April it took 15 days to get to that peak from where we are now (around 150 per day).

The first mortality was on March 10th. The peak occurred on April 14th. It took around 18 days to get to where we are now (150). The second peak has taken around 52 days to get to where we are now.

Mortalities after April 14th declined rapidly. It is likely that many of the early April mortalities were a result of the NHS moving untested patients into care homes.

cricketfieldclarets
Posts: 21464
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:59 pm
Been Liked: 8585 times
Has Liked: 11285 times

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Fri Oct 23, 2020 2:15 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 12:06 pm
From the perspective of March, once the inbound infection had entered the UK and was growing exponentially it looked like there was no option but to lock down. The health services would have been overwhelmed otherwise.

What we know now is that the pandemic is only severely affecting a proportion of the population (the z's vulnerable group). There is another part of the population that it just bounces off without any effect (x's) and a middle group that have a short term illness but quickly recover (y's).

Like you say if you have lockdowns all that it does is buy you time at the expense of economic slowdown,' government debt building' and peoples livelyhoods. Once the lockdown is lifted the virus starts to take off again. From what I can see through the current UK data, most of the 'severe damage' was done in March/April.

The virus is now moving through the Y's who are socially active. It does not look like it is growing exponentially. It does not look like it is going to overwhelm hospitals except for a few hotspot regions. The mortality rates are bad but low compared to April. There comes a time in the not to distant future when it ceases to be a pandemic but is likely to remain a nasty illness/virus for some time that is comparable to some of the other illnesses and viruses that the health services face every year.
Spoke with my cousin today who is a doctor in one of the ICU units (for babies).

This is anecdotal and not advice to people about how cautious to be or otherwise. But felt worth sharing.

She said that cases are increasing - for example LOTS of pregnant mums who are having routine tests are coming back positive. BUT the positive thing is (for now at least) almost all of these have no illness let alone complications.

She said hospitals are much busier than spring. Partly because of the rise in infections. But not dramatically different to any other autumn going into winter.

Caution is still definitely needed. But she also said that there is next to no admissions for things she usually sees. Croup. Flu and other seasonal viruses.

You have to expect that it will get bad through winter. But perhaps thats part of it - seasonal as many expected.

She also said that almost all of the badly ill people are elderly with pre existing conditions. Again something we expected and kind of knew.

In the first wave I knew nobody who had it. Either here or in Italy where I have some friends.

Now I know lots of people who have. Some young, some older. One or two with some pre existing conditions. Including one lad who is just over 40 but has a heart condition. All of them have recovered perfectly well. The lad mentioned above was probably hardest hit but he isn't the healthiest (through choice or otherwise).

Caution is still needed. None of us know how this will pan out or mutate. But the evidence continues to suggest most people will be ok. So try not to live in fear even if you have to change your way of living for now.
This user liked this post: UnderSeige

UnderSeige
Been Liked: 1 time
Has Liked: 826 times

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Fri Oct 23, 2020 2:26 pm

There is loads of links on the internet about patients recovering in hospital more rapidly with the use of Ivermectin.
If interested try the following google search 'patients recovering in hospital from ivermectin'.

UnderSeige
Been Liked: 1 time
Has Liked: 826 times

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Fri Oct 23, 2020 2:40 pm

cricketfieldclarets wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 2:15 pm
Spoke with my cousin today who is a doctor in one of the ICU units (for babies).

This is anecdotal and not advice to people about how cautious to be or otherwise. But felt worth sharing.
...
Caution is still needed. None of us know how this will pan out or mutate. But the evidence continues to suggest most people will be ok. So try not to live in fear even if you have to change your way of living for now.
My recent experience is similar to yours. I didn't know of anyone who had it during the first peak. At the time I spoke to a doctor about where the cases were occurring. She said that they were mostly in care homes in our neck of the woods.

I think the lockdown possibly saved a lot of vulnerable people from the first peak in the North West. London had it very bad. Now things are reversed. There is likely a greater proportion of vulnerable people open to the virus in the North West/Yorkshire/Midlands but a lesser proportion London and the South East.

A carer who visits my Mother told me that some of her family caught it including a baby who ended up in hospital. All are now recovered though. My niece also has it at University.

cricketfieldclarets
Posts: 21464
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:59 pm
Been Liked: 8585 times
Has Liked: 11285 times

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Fri Oct 23, 2020 2:46 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 2:40 pm
My recent experience is similar to yours. I didn't know of anyone who had it during the first peak. At the time I spoke to a doctor about where the cases were occurring. She said that they were mostly in care homes in our neck of the woods.

I think the lockdown possibly saved a lot of vulnerable people from the first peak in the North West. London had it very bad. Now things are reversed. There is likely a greater proportion of vulnerable people open to the virus in the North West/Yorkshire/Midlands but a lesser proportion London and the South East.

A carer who visits my Mother told me that some of her family caught it including a baby who ended up in hospital. All are now recovered though. My niece also has it at University.
I think greater focus needs to be on workable solutions that protect those vulnerable. I genuinely believe as lockdown 1 proved, we would almost all buy into protecting those at most risk. Its the current strategy that is so unclear that is causing more damage (imo).

Vintage Claret
Posts: 2201
Joined: Sun Jan 24, 2016 3:03 pm
Been Liked: 932 times
Has Liked: 607 times

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by Vintage Claret » Fri Oct 23, 2020 4:17 pm

bfcmik wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:02 pm
Someone my cousin's wife knows went for a walk-in test in Burnley. They had no symptoms but at the time they were trying to get everyone tested. Registered and queued for two hours, got fed up of waiting and went home without a test. 48 hours later she was informed that she was positive!
When I went for a walk-in test in Burnley nobody 'registered' until they had literally reached the front of the queue and were inside the 1st section of the marquee where they did the test.

They took my details then I had the test about 2 mins later in the 2nd section of the tent which took about 30 seconds so I don't get how there could have been a 2 hour wait in a queue between them 'registering' and having the test.
This user liked this post: UnderSeige

mdd2
Posts: 6012
Joined: Thu Jan 14, 2016 8:47 pm
Been Liked: 1665 times
Has Liked: 700 times

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by mdd2 » Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:08 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Thu Oct 22, 2020 9:31 pm
Is this just in the North West? The national cases look to be rising unfortunately.
Yes and I hope it continues as things are not looking all that good at some hospitals in the NW with some of the basic NHS stuff now being put on hold again.

Grumps
Posts: 4145
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:15 am
Been Liked: 954 times
Has Liked: 359 times

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by Grumps » Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:24 pm

bfcmik wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 1:02 pm
Someone my cousin's wife knows went for a walk-in test in Burnley. They had no symptoms but at the time they were trying to get everyone tested. Registered and queued for two hours, got fed up of waiting and went home without a test. 48 hours later she was informed that she was positive!
That story has been doing the rounds for months now, sometimes they gave up because it was raining, other times because they got fed up, always worded in a similar way, and always false, stop spreading this rubbish.
This user liked this post: UnderSeige

bfcmik
Posts: 3594
Joined: Thu Jan 14, 2016 2:03 pm
Been Liked: 891 times
Has Liked: 1100 times
Location: Solihull Geriatric Centre

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by bfcmik » Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:08 pm

Grumps wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:24 pm
That story has been doing the rounds for months now, sometimes they gave up because it was raining, other times because they got fed up, always worded in a similar way, and always false, stop spreading this rubbish.
1st time I've ever heard about it. I've never seen it before nor have I seen it debunked. Getting told it is rubbish does not make it so unless you can show some sort of proof it is rubbish.

I don't live anywhere near the north west so things that might be told to you in your neighbourhood almost certainly wouldn't reach my neighbourhood.

UnderSeige
Been Liked: 1 time
Has Liked: 826 times

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:19 pm

Grumps wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 5:24 pm
That story has been doing the rounds for months now, sometimes they gave up because it was raining, other times because they got fed up, always worded in a similar way, and always false, stop spreading this rubbish.
I can't understand why someone would make something up like that. Is it a story that is made up to undermine the government and Health Authorities and make them sound incompetent?

It makes you wonder about a lot of the other crud being levelled at the government at this time. I don't think that the UK government have done much worst or better than most other equivalent European governments. President Macron lost the trust of many French people early on and Spain's mortality rate is higher than ours with France and Italy not far behind. Italy's health services were overwhelmed and I have heard some very bad stories about Spanish Care homes that I don't want to repeat in case they are not true.

The government have done a brilliant job with the Nightingale hospitals. Even if staffing is low, I dare say that staff could be shipped in from other regions and reinforced by Army Medics in the hardest hit areas when needed.

Grumps
Posts: 4145
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:15 am
Been Liked: 954 times
Has Liked: 359 times

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by Grumps » Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:28 pm

bfcmik wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:08 pm
1st time I've ever heard about it. I've never seen it before nor have I seen it debunked. Getting told it is rubbish does not make it so unless you can show some sort of proof it is rubbish.

I don't live anywhere near the north west so things that might be told to you in your neighbourhood almost certainly wouldn't reach my neighbourhood.
Nothing to do with the North West, been repeated many times on social media, from all over the country.

UnderSeige
Been Liked: 1 time
Has Liked: 826 times

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:35 pm

bfcmik wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:08 pm
1st time I've ever heard about it. I've never seen it before nor have I seen it debunked. Getting told it is rubbish does not make it so unless you can show some sort of proof it is rubbish.

I don't live anywhere near the north west so things that might be told to you in your neighbourhood almost certainly wouldn't reach my neighbourhood.
Maybe someone has hoodwinked you. It certainly had me fooled when I first read what you said. If it wasn't for Grumps and Vintage Claret I would most likely be telling the story to other people.

PeterWilton
Posts: 847
Joined: Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:17 am
Been Liked: 111 times
Has Liked: 71 times

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by PeterWilton » Sat Oct 24, 2020 2:24 am

bfcmik wrote:
Fri Oct 23, 2020 7:08 pm
1st time I've ever heard about it. I've never seen it before nor have I seen it debunked. Getting told it is rubbish does not make it so unless you can show some sort of proof it is rubbish.

I don't live anywhere near the north west so things that might be told to you in your neighbourhood almost certainly wouldn't reach my neighbourhood.
Why are you placing the burden of proof on grumps and not on the person telling you the story?

And the NHS aren't testing "everyone". You can pay for a private test, but the NHS require you to have met their criteria to get tested.

mdd2
Posts: 6012
Joined: Thu Jan 14, 2016 8:47 pm
Been Liked: 1665 times
Has Liked: 700 times

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by mdd2 » Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:29 am

NHS is only just starting to test staff working in clinical areas where patients maybe at serious risk from Covid when it has been known for months now that 1) nosocomial infections of Covid were rising 2) a lot of young people were carrying the virus and never getting ill 3) NHS staff include a lot of young people.

UnderSeige
Been Liked: 1 time
Has Liked: 826 times

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Sat Oct 24, 2020 10:31 am

A bit of good vaccine news.
Oxford Uni & AstraZeneca’s coronavirus vaccine ‘works perfectly’ & builds strong immunity, study says.
Dr David Matthews, from Bristol's School of Cellular and Molecular Medicine (CMM), who led the research, said: “Until now, the technology hasn't been able to provide answers with such clarity, but we now know the vaccine is doing everything we expected and that is only good news in our fight against the illness.”

While the results are encouraging the vaccine is still undergoing phase three trials and needs to be to be fully tested and approved by health watchdogs before it can be rolled out to the general public.

Last week, the UK's deputy chief medical officer Jonathan Van-Tam said the NHS was preparing to launch the AstraZeneca vaccine shortly after Christmas.

Another drug giant - Pfizer - is also creating Covid vaccines that could be available by the New Year.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13001638/ ... -immunity/
https://metro.co.uk/2020/10/23/oxford-c ... -13467677/
These 2 users liked this post: Vintage Claret FactualFrank

FactualFrank
Posts: 25445
Joined: Sat Mar 26, 2016 12:46 am
Been Liked: 6930 times
Has Liked: 11660 times
Location: Leeds

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by FactualFrank » Sat Oct 24, 2020 10:38 am

UnderSeige wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 10:31 am
A bit of good vaccine news.
https://metro.co.uk/2020/10/23/oxford-c ... -13467677/
Great stuff. It sounds like it's no longer really a case of whether we'll find a vaccine that works, but more about making sure we're finding one that works and isn't a major health risk. Risk vs reward.
This user liked this post: cricketfieldclarets

UnderSeige
Been Liked: 1 time
Has Liked: 826 times

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Sat Oct 24, 2020 2:39 pm

The following article has a lot of good news about both treatments and vaccines.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... r-uk-news/

A few highlights:
The world's first coronavirus treatment that significantly reduces the risk of death is already being given to NHS patients following groundbreaking trials by British scientists.

In a breakthrough described by Boris Johnson as a "remarkable achievement", the common steroid dexamethasone was shown to radically improve the chances of survival for the most ill patients... the Prime Minister hailed the result as the "biggest breakthrough yet" in the treatment of coronavirus, both in Britain and globally.

The Government has been stockpiling dexamethasone since March in case the trials were successful. There are already supplies for 200,000 patients, and enough to cope with any second wave of the virus.
Another vaccine candidate is being developed by the University of Cambridge which hopes to start clinical trials in the autumn after it received £1.9 million in funding from the British government.
Forty million coronavirus vaccines could be heading to the UK in the winter after US multinational pharmaceutical corporation Pfizer revealed in October that it had started the manufacturing process.
Britain is preparing to revise laws to allow the emergency use of any effective coronavirus vaccine before it is fully licensed — but only if it meets required safety standards.
Moderna's vaccine trial showed promising early results ... Moderna's vaccine will be available between January and June 2021.
The first coronavirus vaccine that aims to protect people with a single shot has entered the final stages of testing in the US in an international trial that will recruit up to 60,000 participants. The experimental vaccine being developed by pharmaceutical giant Johnson & Johnson is the fourth vaccine to enter the large, Phase 3 trials in the US.
SinoVac, the Chinese pharmaceutical firm, says its vaccine is nearly ready and will be rolled-out across the world early next year.
Australian biotech company Ena Respiratory has said that a nasal spray it is developing to improve the human immune system to fight the common cold and flu significantly reduced the growth of coronavirus in a recent study on animals.
UK scientists believe they have identified a protein on the surface of human cells that makes coronavirus "highly infectious"... this protein is thought to help Sars-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, rapidly spread across human cells.

University of Bristol researchers say the findings, published in the journal Science, could help in developing antiviral treatments that could block the "newly discovered interaction between virus and host".

The team said: "To defeat Covid-19 we will be relying on an effective vaccine and an arsenal of anti-viral therapeutics.

"Our discovery of the binding of the Sars-CoV-2 Spike to neuropilin-1 and its importance for viral infectivity provides a previously unrecognised avenue for anti-viral therapies to curb the current Covid-19 pandemic."

UnderSeige
Been Liked: 1 time
Has Liked: 826 times

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Sat Oct 24, 2020 8:54 pm

Dr Mike Yeadon.
For anyone with a couple of hours to spare and wanting to get a different angle on the virus the following Delingpod interview with Dr Mike Yeadon is a must. I am not saying that I agree with what he says and haven't even got my head round it but he is a top scientist who has a very dim view of the SAGE group that is advising the government.

He says that the pandemic is virtually over and SARS-COV2 is now just one of around 60 virus's that are floating around during the winter time. He also says that it is the 'mass testing' that is keeping the pandemic going. The testing is giving off numerous 'false positives' that give the impression that there is a second wave. He explains that there is no such thing as a second wave in virology.

He argues that what he says is 'first year text book stuff' and that most of the SAGE group are basically mathematicians rather than virologists.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbMJoJ6i39k
Dr Mike Yeadon has a degree in biochemistry and toxicology, a research-based PhD in respiratory pharmacology, has spent over 30 years leading new medicines research in the pharmaceuticals industry, and founded his own biotech company which he sold to the world’s biggest drug company Novartis in 2017.

He talks to James about his devastating paper What SAGE has Got Wrong (https://lockdownsceptics.org/what-sag...) in which he says that the Covid pandemic is over, that there will be no Second Wave, that we have already achieved herd immunity and that Sir Patrick Vallance, Britain’s Chief Scientific Adviser, is a **** and that the vaccine is more or less a waste of time. He doesn’t pull his punches
This user liked this post: HahaYeah

cricketfieldclarets
Posts: 21464
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:59 pm
Been Liked: 8585 times
Has Liked: 11285 times

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Sat Oct 24, 2020 8:54 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 2:39 pm
The following article has a lot of good news about both treatments and vaccines.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-heal ... r-uk-news/

A few highlights:
All really promising. I said at the start i imagined it would be a tough, long year. Winter in particular. But come March I imagine things will be much closer to normal and improving massively.

UnderSeige
Been Liked: 1 time
Has Liked: 826 times

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:22 pm

cricketfieldclarets wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 8:54 pm
All really promising. I said at the start i imagined it would be a tough, long year. Winter in particular. But come March I imagine things will be much closer to normal and improving massively.
I am confident of that also.

mdd2
Posts: 6012
Joined: Thu Jan 14, 2016 8:47 pm
Been Liked: 1665 times
Has Liked: 700 times

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by mdd2 » Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:31 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 8:54 pm
Dr Mike Yeadon.
For anyone with a couple of hours to spare and wanting to get a different angle on the virus the following Delingpod interview with Dr Mike Yeadon is a must. I am not saying that I agree with what he says and haven't even got my head round it but he is a top scientist who has a very dim view of the SAGE group that is advising the government.

He says that the pandemic is virtually over and SARS-COV2 is now just one of around 60 virus's that are floating around during the winter time. He also says that it is the 'mass testing' that is keeping the pandemic going. The testing is giving off numerous 'false positives' that give the impression that there is a second wave. He explains that there is no such thing as a second wave in virology.

He argues that what he says is 'first year text book stuff' and that most of the SAGE group are basically mathematicians rather than virologists.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sbMJoJ6i39k
Perhaps he would like to come and visit the NW hospitals-he may be right about no second wave as we are still in the first recrudescence of the first wave; either that or my colleagues are admitting healthy patients with positive swabs but no illness to the tune now of 1000 patients per day across the UK with about 300+ of those in the NW. In the absence of physical illness it is impossible to know if a positive test is coming from live virus or bits of the virus and only proper culture of the virus which can takes weeks can confirm infection is someone not ill and only about 80% of patients with Covid-19 will have a first test that is positive-but the reality has to be that we are seeing more infections and this is translating into more sick people and deaths from Covid-19.
Dr Yeadon may be a well renowned virologist but I would question the veracity of what you have posted US concerning the present state of play with the virus in the NW and we will see if the number of hospital admissions up here hits the highs of March/April despite the measures we have tried to take.

cricketfieldclarets
Posts: 21464
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:59 pm
Been Liked: 8585 times
Has Liked: 11285 times

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:41 pm

confirmed that September 2020 was the LEAST deadly month in Swedish History!

Devils_Advocate
Posts: 12345
Joined: Sun Oct 30, 2016 2:43 pm
Been Liked: 5202 times
Has Liked: 920 times

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by Devils_Advocate » Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:42 pm

Id suggest paying attention to someone like Prof Devi Sridhar than listening to anything linked to James Delingpole.

Below is an article she wrote back in Aug foretelling what was gonna come this winter with our failure to follow through on the success of the initial lockdown by implementing a robust track and trace system supported by several other strong and sensible measures

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/14/opin ... ation.html

UnderSeige
Been Liked: 1 time
Has Liked: 826 times

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:45 pm

mdd2 wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:31 pm
Perhaps he would like to come and visit the NW hospitals-he may be right about no second wave as we are still in the first recrudescence of the first wave; either that or my colleagues are admitting healthy patients with positive swabs but no illness to the tune now of 1000 patients per day across the UK with about 300+ of those in the NW. In the absence of physical illness it is impossible to know if a positive test is coming from live virus or bits of the virus and only proper culture of the virus which can takes weeks can confirm infection is someone not ill and only about 80% of patients with Covid-19 will have a first test that is positive-but the reality has to be that we are seeing more infections and this is translating into more sick people and deaths from Covid-19.
Dr Yeadon may be a well renowned virologist but I would question the veracity of what you have posted US concerning the present state of play with the virus in the NW and we will see if the number of hospital admissions up here hits the highs of March/April despite the measures we have tried to take.
I'm not saying that I agree with the whole flow of what he is saying. I need to look into it a bit more. It's worth a listen though.

cricketfieldclarets
Posts: 21464
Joined: Thu Jan 21, 2016 9:59 pm
Been Liked: 8585 times
Has Liked: 11285 times

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:58 pm

Devils_Advocate wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:42 pm
Id suggest paying attention to someone like Prof Devi Sridhar than listening to anything linked to James Delingpole.

Below is an article she wrote back in Aug foretelling what was gonna come this winter with our failure to follow through on the success of the initial lockdown by implementing a robust track and trace system supported by several other strong and sensible measures

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/14/opin ... ation.html
I am more inclined to think we wasted a chance to edge toward herd immunity in summer when hospitals were underwhelmed.

I agree though that winter will likely be very tough.

mdd2
Posts: 6012
Joined: Thu Jan 14, 2016 8:47 pm
Been Liked: 1665 times
Has Liked: 700 times

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by mdd2 » Sat Oct 24, 2020 10:06 pm

US you are one for graphs and I think you will agree that whatever the false positive rate maybe as the numbers testing positive have increased so as the number of hospital admissions with Covid-19 as well as the numbers having to go to ITU and the number of deaths. This also appears to be the case in much of Europe and Sweden is also getting more cases again with the 1500 cases on October 21st just 200 short of their peak in June. Based on those data how on earth can he claim the pandemic is nearly over (unless he is implying that by next spring it will be) and that we have reached herd immunity?

mdd2
Posts: 6012
Joined: Thu Jan 14, 2016 8:47 pm
Been Liked: 1665 times
Has Liked: 700 times

Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by mdd2 » Sat Oct 24, 2020 10:10 pm

cricketfieldclarets wrote:
Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:58 pm
I am more inclined to think we wasted a chance to edge toward herd immunity in summer when hospitals were underwhelmed.

I agree though that winter will likely be very tough.
I don't think people realise how tough it could be because the front line NHS staff are cream crackered already from the first wave and this time it is the intention to try and manage this without stopping most other NHS work and Inchy in his informative posts on the subject has explained how it could be even worse despite perhaps fewer cases of Covid due to staff shortages this time around for ITU patients (and others).

Locked