SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

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Grumps
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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by Grumps » Fri Oct 30, 2020 5:38 pm

CombatClaret wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 5:26 pm
Coronavirus: Second wave death toll set to exceed worst-case scenario, Sage warns

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/heal ... 51614.html

The number of deaths caused by coronavirus is likely to exceed the government’s worst-case scenario predictions with ministers being told the second wave is too far advanced now for a short circuit-breaker lockdown to stop it.
Iam not saying what they say is right or wrong, but so many of these predictions have turned out to be so far off the mark people have started dismissing them.
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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by CombatClaret » Fri Oct 30, 2020 5:39 pm

Grumps wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 5:38 pm
Iam not saying what they say is right or wrong, but so many of these predictions have turned out to be so far off the mark people have started dismissing them.
That's the most fundamental mistake possible, they were only were off the mark because we did something to change it.

And the most recently prediction people poopoo'd was when Whitty & Vallance said in September there would be 200 deaths a day by mid November and people lined up to say they were scaremongering.
They were not, and we've hit that milestone nearly a month early.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by Devils_Advocate » Fri Oct 30, 2020 5:45 pm

ksrclaret wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 5:26 pm
I don't think everyone who sees lockdown as an answer are revelling in misery - I know some people reluctantly come to this view from seeing things close up, like those who work in hospitals. I completely understand and accept that.

It was more in response to those who've suggested good news should be banned for a while, and that posting updates on potential breakthroughs was a dangerous agenda. That I can't get my head around. If we don't have hope, what's left?
I get the good news / hope stuff and I think there's a lot of stuff what the poster I have an issue with posts that is good and interesting.

There is also some very dubious stuff which outside this forum is fueling the kind of people marching against lockdowns and wearing masks and who support theories around it being a hoax, hugely exaggerated or away of govts controlling the masses

What I see is someone who claims to do a lot of research and source checking and claims they havent got an agenda completely ignore any counter argument and commonly held expert views that this discredits the info they are sharing

This is what I have a problem with though to be fair I have largely just ignored it however when someone is now getting rounded on and called out for challenging this view then I will support them

For the record I dont have a set view on how we manage this because I think there isnt one single right solution and also I am no way informed enough to think I have the answer

I read a lot and I try and read views from all sides and debates where views are challenged and discussed (unlike echo chamber youtube channels) and I think that there are good ways to manage and exist with this virus without being locked down but our whole society's set up towards facts, news, experts, leadership, public interest etc means that we gonna stumble through this going from extreme to extreme with the population at loggerheads with each other until a vaccine is found

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by Grumps » Fri Oct 30, 2020 5:48 pm

CombatClaret wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 5:39 pm
That's the most fundamental mistake possible, they were only were off the mark because we did something to change it.

And the most recently prediction people poopoo'd was when Whitty & Vallance said in September there would be 200 deaths a day by mid November and people lined up to say they were scaremongering.
They were not, and we've hit that milestone nearly a month early.
Even in the article Whitty states the current restrictions will not get the R rate under 1, yet two more weeks following the last two, it will be under that figure.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by CombatClaret » Fri Oct 30, 2020 5:53 pm

Grumps wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 5:48 pm
Even in the article Whitty states the current restrictions will not get the R rate under 1, yet two more weeks following the last two, it will be under that figure.
"In two weeks time we will be back under 200 deaths per day." says Grumps
Just going to bookmark this
Last edited by CombatClaret on Fri Oct 30, 2020 6:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by Grumps » Fri Oct 30, 2020 6:06 pm

CombatClaret wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 5:53 pm
"In two weeks time we will be back under 200 deaths per day." says Grumps
Just going to bookmark this
Where in gods name did I say that.
The R rate is the only thing I've mentioned..... Linked to infections... It's fallen two weeks in a row... Now at 1.1 to 1.3. If it follows the same rate for the next two weeks it will be under 1.
Bookmark it all you want, misquote all you want.. But NOT Once did I mention death rates, this week, next week, or a month next Sunday.

The trouble with certain posters on this board is they just tell bare faced lies, the quote you attribute to me has never been said and should be removed, otherwise I might just have to report it.
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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by CombatClaret » Fri Oct 30, 2020 6:42 pm

Grumps wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 6:06 pm
Where in gods name did I say that.
The R rate is the only thing I've mentioned..... Linked to infections... It's fallen two weeks in a row... Now at 1.1 to 1.3. If it follows the same rate for the next two weeks it will be under 1.
Bookmark it all you want, misquote all you want.. But NOT Once did I mention death rates, this week, next week, or a month next Sunday.

The trouble with certain posters on this board is they just tell bare faced lies, the quote you attribute to me has never been said and should be removed, otherwise I might just have to report it.
I legitimately apologies for that, I referred to deaths in what Whitty said, you referred to R in what Whitty said. I mistook your prediction on one for the other.
If I disagreed with you I wouldn't happily say so, in this case I mistook you, sorry.
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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:58 pm

Grumps wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 5:48 pm
Even in the article Whitty states the current restrictions will not get the R rate under 1, yet two more weeks following the last two, it will be under that figure.
Hi Grumps I posted a short video yesterday by Dr John Campbell. He was saying a very similar thing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tSzq39X ... Qg&index=1

Highlights
  • He thinks the government strategy is working. I agree.
  • From 20th to 27th October the cases have gone up by 7.3%. From the 9th to 16th October cases increased by 14%. In late Sept cases were doubling every 7 days. So the 'level of increase' is going down.
  • Increases have been halving every week.
  • The rate of increase will likely continue to decline until a point at which the numbers start to decline.
  • He reckons it will take about a month to get to the point at which there is no increase in cases at all. Once the increase is stopped the R value will be less than 1 and the figures will start to go down.
  • Peak mortalities should also be reached in about 4 weeks time.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by Grumps » Fri Oct 30, 2020 8:05 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:58 pm
Hi Grumps I posted a short video yesterday by Dr John Campbell. He was saying a very similar thing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tSzq39X ... Qg&index=1

Highlights
  • He thinks the government strategy is working. I agree.
  • From 20th to 27th October the cases have gone up by 7.3%. From the 9th to 16th October cases increased by 14%. In late Sept cases were doubling every 7 days. So the 'level of increase' is going down.
  • Increases have been halving every week.
  • The rate of increase will likely continue to decline until a point at which the numbers start to decline.
  • He reckons it will take about a month to get to the point at which there is no increase in cases at all. Once the increase is stopped the R value will be less than 1 and the figures will start to go down.
  • Peak mortalities should also be reached in about 4 weeks time.
I hope he's right, I also hope there isn't a knee jerk reaction from the government if we have a couple of really bad days

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:17 pm

Devils_Advocate wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 3:56 pm
Anyone pushing the lockdown sceptic narrative thats pedalled by people like James Delingpole and Julia Hartley Brewer and funded by big business with an agenda to protect the billions they make in their businesses and city property portfolios needs calling out and challenging. Especially so if they are dressing it up in good intellectual debate

If you consider this as personal attacks and dont like it then thats up to you but I equally dislike people spreading misinformation and/or misrepresenting real data in a way that becomes misinformation.

When you stop pedalling this anti lockdown agenda I'll have sympathy about your objection to people being frank and critical of you.
Hi DA I read this by accident when another poster replied to it. Please don't misrepresent what I say.

I am not particularly bothered about people having a go at me. It's 'water off a ducks back'. What I object to is people hijacking the debate and turning it into an excuse for 'personal abuse'. It is not necessary. We are all Burnley Fans and suffering from the virus and should be able to debate without resorting to attacking personalities rather than ideas.

There are also certain things that are like a 'red rag to a bull' with me. One of them is the 'dehumanising of groups within our society'. Whether this is racism, ageism, anti-semitism, personal abuse on the internet or whatever else. They are all the same to me. There has been a good deal of progress in kicking racism out of football. I think that we should be kicking all the lot of the ism's out with it.

You are wrong if you think I am peddling a 'lockdown sceptic argument (whatever that is) '. Totally wrong. In the spring I was keenly in support of the government lockdown. I even thought that we came out of it too early in June. My posts at the time will testify to this.

What has changed my mind since then? The data and increasing knowledge of how the virus is working. I believe that we should be following all the current restrictions and think that the government have got it right for the moment. The idea that I am advocating a 'herd immunity policy' that some posters are peddling is also wrong. I am saying that we are heading towards a 'natural herd immunity' and might not be far off this occurring at which stage the virus will become endemic.

The idea that talking about T-Cells is some sort of dangerous idea is also rubbish. They teach about them in A-Level biology.

In my entire life I have only ever listened to one Delingpod interview - in order to hear what Dr Mike Yeadon had to say. I thought that Delingpole was a good interviewer and that DR Yeadon was very informative. I can't go along with some of the things he says because I can see SARS-COV2 cases rising in the North of England and the Midlands. However, he is very knowledgeable and informative and I learned a lot from it especially his calls for a much improved testing regime. I make no apologies for that I will likely be revisiting it. Neither Delingpole nor Dr Yeadon make any suggestions that people should disobey the restrictions in that interview as far as I recall. Nor does Julia Hartley Brewer.

The link to lockdown sceptics website that some posters are raging about was to access the report that Dr Yeadon had written. For some reason that is where it is. I haven't bothered to look at anything else on the site not that it would be a crime if I had. I am just not interested in what they have to say. I do agree that some of these people are being dangerously unhelpful in encouraging people to disobey the restrictions.

The links that I reference are from a variety of sites. These include newspapers such as the Mirror, The Times, Daily Telegraph, Daily Mail, The Guardian etc. I refer to scientific publications. I linked to a study on the 'Nature' journal earlier today. I also refer to videos on YouTube mainly by John Campbell and Chris Martenson, Talk Radio and LBC. I also link to sites such as the BBC, SKY etc. Hardly sites that are peddling an anti-lockdown agenda.

I even posted a link to a momentum video earlier in the year. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bQDPQ8bz7cU Since I am not peddling any political agenda I can look at all points of view as long as they are law abiding and not racist.

Please don't misrepresent what I say or what anyone else says in the future. I think that you need to make some positive contributions whichever side of the debate your on instead of attacking people all of the time.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:31 pm

Devils_Advocate wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 5:18 pm
I never said it was just big business but these are the people paying the likes of James Delingpole and JHB who have platforms to spread their misinformation.
You shouldn't be making such assertions unless you can prove that they are true. Even then you should be very very careful.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by Devils_Advocate » Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:43 pm

Get over yourself mate and go back to your bullsh*t youtube videos 😩🔫

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:00 pm

Devils_Advocate wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 9:43 pm
Get over yourself mate and go back to your bullsh*t youtube videos 😩🔫
Water off a ducks back. God bless. :D

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by mdd2 » Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:02 pm

It's more phrasing that you used was ageist and bigotry. I have seen many elderly people in A&E. I can't recall any that were drunk.

Sorry to return to this Undersiege but you have libelled me by calling me a bigot when you have not a shred of evidence of the truth of your accusation which seems to flow from my rhyming slang term for alcohol intoxication. If you have not seen elderly intoxicated people in A&E it does not mean they do not exist. Indeed alcohol misuse in the elderly can be quite common and occult even to their near relatives, often picked up on finding abnormal blood results
Alcohol misuse is a big problem across all ages and tolerance falls with age. An old person does not have to be obviously intoxicated to be involved in a fall and I suppose it depends in part where you are in UK, but in my inner city area there are a large number of elderly fallers some of whom are intoxicated when they fall and in other alcohol consumption is sufficient to precipitate a fall so please do not accuse me of bigotry and when all I have posted is rhyming slang for intoxication. As my first game at the Turf was August 1950- why would I slag off the elderly? That would be like shooting myself in the foot!!!
Was my post ageist -sure it was-we were talking about the elderly and more specifically the frail elderly. Do the elderly have problems from alcohol misuse-yes, does that result in some falls-yes. Is the safe level of alcohol lower in the elderly than the young-yes.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:09 pm

ksrclaret wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 4:18 pm
Oh dear. Laziest post I've seen a while. I can assure you it's not just people with big business interests that don't want another lockdown. The whole idea of lockdown sceptics is bizarre. Every single person should be sceptical of a lockdown. Doesn't mean you "want to let the virus rip", it just means you're very wary of causing more untold suffering and, yes, deaths. Very, very concerning that it's just become an accepted thing to do.
I agree. Sensible debate. With evidence. Facts. And even theories is a good thing. On BOTH sides.

It’s just like anything. It’s the extremes that get the most attention.

Like left and right wing politics. Most of us share views on both sides of that fence but are in the main pretty central.

It’s the exact same with Covid.

I can see arguments for and against the measures. Far and against wanting to end the measures.

Balance is crucial.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:12 pm

CombatClaret wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 5:26 pm
Coronavirus: Second wave death toll set to exceed worst-case scenario, Sage warns

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/heal ... 51614.html

The number of deaths caused by coronavirus is likely to exceed the government’s worst-case scenario predictions with ministers being told the second wave is too far advanced now for a short circuit-breaker lockdown to stop it.
Perhaps one day their doomsday predictions will be right.

But what’s sad about that is it’s almost like Peter and the wolf.

They’ve lied and over egged so many things it’s little wonder even the most obedient people are doing their own thing.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by Devils_Advocate » Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:15 pm

cricketfieldclarets wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:09 pm
I agree. Sensible debate. With evidence. Facts. And even theories is a good thing. On BOTH sides.

It’s just like anything. It’s the extremes that get the most attention.

Like left and right wing politics. Most of us share views on both sides of that fence but are in the main pretty central.

It’s the exact same with Covid.

I can see arguments for and against the measures. Far and against wanting to end the measures.

Balance is crucial.
The post you quoted was having a go at me (to which I responded) so if you have a problem with me being unbalanced and not focused on facts and sensible debate please pull me up on it and I'll happily converse

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:18 pm

Devils_Advocate wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:15 pm
The post you quoted was having a go at me (to which I responded) so if you have a problem with me being unbalanced and not focused on facts and sensible debate please pull me up on it and I'll happily converse
Yes. I agree with a specific part of said quote.


—-

The whole idea of lockdown sceptics is bizarre. Every single person should be sceptical of a lockdown. Doesn't mean you "want to let the virus rip", it just means you're very wary of causing more untold suffering and, yes, deaths.

——

Particularly the first part of that quote.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by mdd2 » Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:25 pm

Hi CF but if we are not obedient we will continue with rising or levelling of deaths and 200/day from Covid is 6000/month potentially from now to the end of March. The deaths presently are despite better care of the airways, dexamathasone (which has been a real game changer) and there is nothing apart from remdsivir which only shortens illness but not of use for those who need ITU and may die and experimental treatments presently in trials.
Just read that Bojo may be going for National Lockdown next week.
CF I can assure you that in the NW this thing is for real and NHS staff are by and large cream crackered and the situation is dire and without a fall in cases we will soon be back to last April in terms of admissions although hopefully fewer will die due to the above.
I think you have said you won't be for taking the vaccine(s) but the sooner we know how good/bad they will be the better for everyone

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:34 pm

mdd2 wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:25 pm
Hi CF but if we are not obedient we will continue with rising or levelling of deaths
Completely appreciate that. My point wasn’t we shouldn’t be obedient but understand why many aren’t.

Take the masks for instance.

Every single expert from Vallance to Whitty to Van Tam insisted on tv that there was no evidence that they worked. And went as far as saying could make things worse.

Anyone with half a brain could see that the only reason they said this was so normal folk didn’t buy up the nhs resources.

Then the advice changed. And it wasn’t based on changing evidence. It was because of the above.

So it’s little wonder many lost trust.

Had they come out and said ‘masks may offer protection. We encourage you to make your own. Or use other methods. But until the nhs stocks are replenished we urge you to be mindful of stockpiling.’ All of us would’ve had far more respect for them. The honesty would have been worrying but appreciated.

Instead because the nhs didn’t have sufficient stockpiles (who’s fault is that) they just lied.

It’s just one small example.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:37 pm

mdd2 wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:25 pm

I think you have said you won't be for taking the vaccine(s) but the sooner we know how good/bad they will be the better for everyone
Indeed. And it could largely be seen as for selfish reasons. I assure you I’m not. And have stuck to rules and advice as strictly as anyone I know. For the first three months I barely left the house. Never went in a shop. Didn’t eat anything we hadn’t prepared. Never visited family. Didn’t allow anyone to visit our newborn. Etc.

So it’s not for selfish reasons per se. But my own personal risk tolerance etc means that I wouldn’t take it.

If I was

Over 70
Diabetic
BAME
Overweight
Suffering any sort of lung or serious condition

I’d be volunteering for them now!

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by mdd2 » Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:52 pm

No I get most of that in regard to yourself CFC
Must confess I had not thought that the non wearing of masks was to avoid lack of NHS supplies and that there truly was no evidence for them at the start and that the evidence came later which is why we changed tac
If I have time I might do a search to see if we followed fact or fiction at that time
Stay safe

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:56 pm

mdd2 wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:52 pm
No I get most of that in regard to yourself CFC
Must confess I had not thought that the non wearing of masks was to avoid lack of NHS supplies and that there truly was no evidence for them at the start and that the evidence came later which is why we changed tac
If I have time I might do a search to see if we followed fact or fiction at that time
Stay safe
That’s my interpretation at least.

Thanks mdd2 you too.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by Devils_Advocate » Fri Oct 30, 2020 11:05 pm

cricketfieldclarets wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:18 pm
Yes. I agree with a specific part of said quote.


—-

The whole idea of lockdown sceptics is bizarre. Every single person should be sceptical of a lockdown. Doesn't mean you "want to let the virus rip", it just means you're very wary of causing more untold suffering and, yes, deaths.

——

Particularly the first part of that quote.
I agree but some of the stuff that has been posted that I have a problem with is the stuff that is really fact free, is agenda driven (and if you read as much as I do is worryingly political driven) and is anything but sensible debate.

My whole perspective is being open minded and ready to challenge our own views as much as everyone elses. There's links being posted to people who are promoting a lockdown sceptic agenda because it profits them and not because they are concerned about the potential suffering of the people they use to support their argument

I get your perspective that you want to be positive and look for positive news and have no problem with that but equally I am very passionate that unless we have a realistic view with an honest agenda with public interest at its heart then we will all suffer because we wont work together and take the actions as a unified society to combat this virus

If you doubt or disagree where I am coming from then get on Twitter and follow the views of Prof. Devi Sridhar. I think you will then see what a positive hopeful outlook can be without the agenda driven bullsh*t that some are posting (I dont hail her as the expert of experts but think she articulates my position better than anyone else)
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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by cricketfieldclarets » Fri Oct 30, 2020 11:15 pm

Devils_Advocate wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 11:05 pm
I agree but some of the stuff that has been posted that I have a problem with is the stuff that is really fact free, is agenda driven (and if you read as much as I do is worryingly political driven) and is anything but sensible debate.

My whole perspective is being open minded and ready to challenge our own views as much as everyone elses. There's links being posted to people who are promoting a lockdown sceptic agenda because it profits them and not because they are concerned about the potential suffering of the people they use to support their argument

I get your perspective that you want to be positive and look for positive news and have no problem with that but equally I am very passionate that unless we have a realistic view with an honest agenda with public interest at its heart then we will all suffer because we wont work together and take the actions as a unified society to combat this virus

If you doubt or disagree where I am coming from then get on Twitter and follow the views of Prof. Devi Sridhar. I think you will then see what a positive hopeful outlook can be without the agenda driven bullsh*t that some are posting (I dont hail her as the expert of experts but think she articulates my position better than anyone else)
I agree with a lot of that. With the exception of get on Twitter.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by Devils_Advocate » Fri Oct 30, 2020 11:19 pm

cricketfieldclarets wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 11:15 pm
With the exception of get on Twitter.
Haha thats fair enough :D :D :D

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by Jakubclaret » Fri Oct 30, 2020 11:20 pm

UnderSeige wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 2:18 pm
You will find that one thing that I can't stand is any form of bigotry or discrimination.

You need to provide facts and figures to prove the 'alcohol claim' otherwise your accusation against the elderly is disgusting and also ageist (a form of bigotry that aims to dehumanise and create prejudice against a certain group of people within the population like racism or homophobia).

Many of the people who end up in A&E are aged and disabled. Many are frail and weak. Just because they are frail and elderly doesn't mean that their lives don't matter and we can castigate them. The NHS treats the problem of accidents at home very seriously.

Get back to debate. You provide some good arguments but don't target groups of the population.
You'll get some falling because of alcohol but let's be honest it doesn't really matter what age you are if you've had a few you are hitting the deck 18 or 80 you are going on your arse, pinning the blame on alcohol blanket covering any age group is extremely shortsighted & smacks of a lack of understanding regarding the elderly population.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by CombatClaret » Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:07 am

cricketfieldclarets wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:12 pm
Perhaps one day their doomsday predictions will be right.
But what’s sad about that is it’s almost like Peter and the wolf.
They’ve lied and over egged so many things it’s little wonder even the most obedient people are doing their own thing.
SAGE predicted a worse case scenario before the first lockdown, it didn't come true, because we had a lockdown. They told us what would happen if we didn't acted, we acted, it didn't come to pass. This is not lying or over egging.

Since then they've been bang on the money, people have accused them of scaremongering when they told us this is the exact situation we would be in. The Government in their infinite wisdom decided to part ways with SAGE advise and we find ourselves doing worse than the SAGE modeling predicted.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by dsr » Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:10 am

CombatClaret wrote:
Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:07 am
SAGE predicted a worse case scenario before the first lockdown, it didn't come true, because we had a lockdown. They told us what would happen if we didn't acted, we acted, it didn't come to pass. This is not lying or over egging.

Since then they've been bang on the money, people have accused them of scaremongering when they told us this is the exact situation we would be in. The Government in their infinite wisdom decided to part ways with SAGE advise and we find ourselves doing worse than the SAGE modeling predicted.
That Sage model predicted that if we didn't have a lockdown, we would have 500,000 deaths, and if Sweden didn't have a lockdown, they would have 85,000 deaths. Their modelling is not gospel.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by CombatClaret » Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:12 am

dsr wrote:
Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:10 am
That Sage model predicted that if we didn't have a lockdown, we would have 500,000 deaths, and if Sweden didn't have a lockdown, they would have 85,000 deaths. Their modelling is not gospel.
I'm unaware of the UK body SAGE doing any modeling for other countries, can you post a link so I can look into this.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by Billy Balfour » Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:15 am

@piersmorgan
Where ARE you @BorisJohnson ? Stop hiding & lead.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by dsr » Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:32 am

CombatClaret wrote:
Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:12 am
I'm unaware of the UK body SAGE doing any modeling for other countries, can you post a link so I can look into this.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/1 ... th-crisis/

In case it's firewalled, the first paragraph says:

"All theoretical models are wrong, some are just less wrong than others. Cast your minds back to March – Professor Neil Ferguson’s, now infamous, estimation of 500,000 deaths had just thrown the Government into disarray. Despite similar apocalyptic predictions in Sweden of 85,000 deaths, their government held their nerve. Their total of just under 6,000 fatalities shines an unflattering light on Ferguson’s predictions. Sweden’s overall excess mortality is lower than many countries, and whilst positive test results skyrocket on most of the Continent, the Swedes are on a milder trajectory."

You would certainly expect the model to produce similar results for Sweden and the UK based on the same assumptions; what needs to be addressed is why the actual results were similar for the two countries when they didn't follow the same policies.

[Edit] It was Uppsala University who produced the Swedish figure using Ferguson's (Sage's) model.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by CombatClaret » Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:43 am

dsr wrote:
Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:32 am
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/1 ... th-crisis/

In case it's firewalled, the first paragraph says:

"All theoretical models are wrong, some are just less wrong than others. Cast your minds back to March – Professor Neil Ferguson’s, now infamous, estimation of 500,000 deaths had just thrown the Government into disarray. Despite similar apocalyptic predictions in Sweden of 85,000 deaths, their government held their nerve. Their total of just under 6,000 fatalities shines an unflattering light on Ferguson’s predictions. Sweden’s overall excess mortality is lower than many countries, and whilst positive test results skyrocket on most of the Continent, the Swedes are on a milder trajectory."

You would certainly expect the model to produce similar results for Sweden and the UK based on the same assumptions; what needs to be addressed is why the actual results were similar for the two countries when they didn't follow the same policies.

[Edit] It was Uppsala University who produced the Swedish figure using Ferguson's (Sage's) model.
Oh yes I do remember Ferguson and his infamous modeling. It's getting late for me but I'll try and respond at some point. One thing people point out is that while Sweden did not have an official lockdown, large swathes of the population took it upon themselves to change their behavior so in essence created one without being told to.

Anyway sleep well and stay safe!

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by dsr » Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:46 am

CombatClaret wrote:
Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:43 am
Oh yes I do remember Ferguson and his infamous modeling. It's getting late for me but I'll try and respond at some point. One thing people point out is that while Sweden did not have an official lockdown, large swathes of the population took it upon themselves to change their behavior so in essence created one without being told to.

Anyway sleep well and stay safe!
And if we hadn't been whipped by fools into following a different set of rules every week, we might have found it easier and more reasonable to follow the guidance as well.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by Devils_Advocate » Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:52 am

dsr wrote:
Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:46 am
And if we hadn't been whipped by fools into following a different set of rules every week, we might have found it easier and more reasonable to follow the guidance as well.
Compare Norway and Sweden and let me know your thoughts around what has worked to balance the health and economical challenges

Alternatively if you are just happy to compare any country like for like with us without the context of the similar countries around them then please let me know why we shouldnt have taken the same path as New Zealand

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by PeterWilton » Sat Oct 31, 2020 4:14 am

dsr wrote:
Sat Oct 31, 2020 12:10 am
That Sage model predicted that if we didn't have a lockdown, we would have 500,000 deaths, and if Sweden didn't have a lockdown, they would have 85,000 deaths. Their modelling is not gospel.
But we did have a lockdown, and so we had fewer deaths than if we didn't have one.

And I'm fairly certain you have replaced the word "could" with "would" in their prediction.

Edit: yep. The model predicted "up to 500,000" deaths in a worst case scenario.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... rus-crisis

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by joey13 » Sat Oct 31, 2020 6:33 am

UnderSeige wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 11:13 am
It's possible that SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the next two or three months and almost certainly by the spring. Reasons why I am thinking this:
  • The UK lags Spain by around 6-8 weeks. The the daily case rate in Spain began to rise in early July peaked at 10,909 (7 day average) on 18th September. It has been declining now for a full three weeks and currently stands at 7,189. The mortality daily rate has been below 130 for the whole of this current peak. None of this points to evidence that virus is spreading exponentially in the country that is currently leading the European pack.
  • Spain shows the data relating to how the virus is currently behaving.
  • The current UK case peak began in late August and is still rising. It took Spain just over two and a half months to reach it's current case peak. If the behaviour of the virus follows the Spain pattern, it should continue it's upward trajectory into November and then start to fall.
  • Pandemics (e.g. Spanish Flu) are usually measured in terms of mortalities. The current media/BBC hysteria is measuring SARS-COV2 in terms of the daily case rate. The daily mortality rate (7 day average) currently stands at 56. In April it reached 941 and was above 500 for over a month.
  • The XYZ hypothesis is the best explanation that I have heard regarding the way in which the virus moves through a population. The bottom line is that it only affects a proportion of the population. However, the proportion that it does affect are highly vulnerable to receiving the infection. Once it has swept through the highly vulnerable proportion, there are less people that it can infect leading to herd immunity. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yRwlxZ- ... e=youtu.be
  • Other SARS viruses have reeked havoc for a year or so and then virtually disappeared.
  • Increase use of face masks. It sounds a bit odd but the science (that the current media hysteria is ignoring) is showing that face mask use can virtually vaccinate a person. If a small amount of virus does get through the mask it can be so small that the immune system has time to overwhelm it and develop antibodies. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KANNNty9V3o
  • SARS-COV2 is not the flu. There is yet little evidence that it spreads like the flu in winter. However, it does spread more easily indoors and especially in poorly ventilated areas. It also thrives in the darkness and the cold. I think that this is the current unknown.
  • It sounds like a vaccine is on the way. The US and China look to be the most likely early runners. There is the possibility that the US will start vaccinating in late November. The Oxford vaccine is having toxicity issues.
On the ball again , you must get fed up of being right all the time

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by Siddo » Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:24 am

UnderSeige wrote:
Fri Oct 09, 2020 11:13 am
It's possible that SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the next two or three months and almost certainly by the spring. Reasons why I am thinking this:
  • The UK lags Spain by around 6-8 weeks. The the daily case rate in Spain began to rise in early July peaked at 10,909 (7 day average) on 18th September. It has been declining now for a full three weeks and currently stands at 7,189. The mortality daily rate has been below 130 for the whole of this current peak. None of this points to evidence that virus is spreading exponentially in the country that is currently leading the European pack.
  • Spain shows the data relating to how the virus is currently behaving.
  • The current UK case peak began in late August and is still rising. It took Spain just over two and a half months to reach it's current case peak. If the behaviour of the virus follows the Spain pattern, it should continue it's upward trajectory into November and then start to fall.
  • Pandemics (e.g. Spanish Flu) are usually measured in terms of mortalities. The current media/BBC hysteria is measuring SARS-COV2 in terms of the daily case rate. The daily mortality rate (7 day average) currently stands at 56. In April it reached 941 and was above 500 for over a month.
  • The XYZ hypothesis is the best explanation that I have heard regarding the way in which the virus moves through a population. The bottom line is that it only affects a proportion of the population. However, the proportion that it does affect are highly vulnerable to receiving the infection. Once it has swept through the highly vulnerable proportion, there are less people that it can infect leading to herd immunity. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yRwlxZ- ... e=youtu.be
  • Other SARS viruses have reeked havoc for a year or so and then virtually disappeared.
  • Increase use of face masks. It sounds a bit odd but the science (that the current media hysteria is ignoring) is showing that face mask use can virtually vaccinate a person. If a small amount of virus does get through the mask it can be so small that the immune system has time to overwhelm it and develop antibodies. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KANNNty9V3o
  • SARS-COV2 is not the flu. There is yet little evidence that it spreads like the flu in winter. However, it does spread more easily indoors and especially in poorly ventilated areas. It also thrives in the darkness and the cold. I think that this is the current unknown.
  • It sounds like a vaccine is on the way. The US and China look to be the most likely early runners. There is the possibility that the US will start vaccinating in late November. The Oxford vaccine is having toxicity issues.
Not sure the opening post has worn well?

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:34 am

mdd2 wrote:
Fri Oct 30, 2020 10:02 pm
It's more phrasing that you used was ageist and bigotry. I have seen many elderly people in A&E. I can't recall any that were drunk.

Sorry to return to this Undersiege but you have libelled me by calling me a bigot when you have not a shred of evidence of the truth of your accusation which seems to flow from my rhyming slang term for alcohol intoxication. If you have not seen elderly intoxicated people in A&E it does not mean they do not exist. Indeed alcohol misuse in the elderly can be quite common and occult even to their near relatives, often picked up on finding abnormal blood results
Alcohol misuse is a big problem across all ages and tolerance falls with age. An old person does not have to be obviously intoxicated to be involved in a fall and I suppose it depends in part where you are in UK, but in my inner city area there are a large number of elderly fallers some of whom are intoxicated when they fall and in other alcohol consumption is sufficient to precipitate a fall so please do not accuse me of bigotry and when all I have posted is rhyming slang for intoxication. As my first game at the Turf was August 1950- why would I slag off the elderly? That would be like shooting myself in the foot!!!
Was my post ageist -sure it was-we were talking about the elderly and more specifically the frail elderly. Do the elderly have problems from alcohol misuse-yes, does that result in some falls-yes. Is the safe level of alcohol lower in the elderly than the young-yes.
No. Your not a bigot. It was likely out of character what you said. it was not good though.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Sat Oct 31, 2020 9:00 am

Siddo wrote:
Sat Oct 31, 2020 8:24 am
Not sure the opening post has worn well?
Give it time. It's less than a month since the opening thread.

The opening sentence was:

It's possible that SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the next two or three months and almost certainly by the spring.

Following the data, nearly one month on, Spain has been disappointing over the last few weeks but the death toll there has been virtually flat since September. Two months looks extremely optimistic now. Possibly a turn around in the data by end of November for reasons that I posted yesterday (please quote me again at the time)

A significant part of the UK has not seen a big increase in cases or deaths. The pandemic level virus spreading is concentrated in the North and areas of the Midlands. There are tentative signs that some of these areas may be topping. Most notably Burnley, Liverpool and West Lancashire (posted links on this earlier in the week).

Also, it looks like a vaccine will be available (see opening post) by December to start the roll out. This should be a big help in bringing the numbers down. It also looks like new and improved testing kits are becoming available. They are already available at some airports. Chemists will be stocking them in the near future. I just hope that the government starts to purchase these tests for the NHS.

There has also been a study by Kings College London this week that says that the r rate is down to 1.1 and that the real daily case rate is doubling every 29 days. Not sure whether this is correct or whether the Imperial College report that is saying that 'the real daily case rate is doubling every 9 days' is correct. Bit of a difference. One of or both of them are wrong. I will post more on that later if I get the time.

I think that 'pandemic end by spring' is not unrealistic.
Last edited by UnderSeige on Sat Oct 31, 2020 9:50 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by mdd2 » Sat Oct 31, 2020 9:45 am

The stats to worry about are hospital admissions for this, deaths and excess deaths from things other than Covid and for sure I think we will start to see a rise in excess deaths if admissions continue to rise. Deaths from Covid may not exceed the 40K before the summer but that will be down to the care we now know helps. It is looking like we will go into lockdown this next week which should help to get R<1 which if that happens will bring cases down by your end on November early December. However if we have not beefed up T&T by then it will just be off again but could just but us the time to get vaccination going IF we have an effective vaccine. The NW is in for a tough six weeks-minimum and the poor people awaiting non-urgent care have yet more suffering to endure, not to mention those needing chemo where the balance between benefit and harm changes with the prevalence of this bug.
Personally I think we are in for major difficulties over the next few months if we do not have a lockdown which allows us to rebalance things.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by mdd2 » Sat Oct 31, 2020 10:02 am

Take the masks for instance.

Every single expert from Vallance to Whitty to Van Tam insisted on tv that there was no evidence that they worked. And went as far as saying could make things worse.

Anyone with half a brain could see that the only reason they said this was so normal folk didn’t buy up the nhs resources.

Then the advice changed. And it wasn’t based on changing evidence. It was because of the above.

Hi CFC I have been firtling around and pasted below regarding face masks
Reading this I think at the time at best there was not much evidence for the widespread use of masks and there may have been an element initially to protect the NHS but not sure advice changed because there became an abundance of masks. The evidence base for use is not great but they are of some use which makes me wonder why one of the Experts in the US said he would wear a mask in preference to taking a vaccine if the latter were only 50% protective claiming the mask was better. There is no doubt some masks are much more effective than 50% like the types worn by staff caring for Covid patients but no sure of the bog standard ones in use and reusable ones we see folk wearing may be more harmful than good if not washed regularly and correctly-60 degrees is the advice i have been given.

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S2213-2600(20)30352-0

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Sat Oct 31, 2020 10:14 am

mdd2 wrote:
Sat Oct 31, 2020 9:45 am
The stats to worry about are hospital admissions for this, deaths and excess deaths from things other than Covid and for sure I think we will start to see a rise in excess deaths if admissions continue to rise. Deaths from Covid may not exceed the 40K before the summer but that will be down to the care we now know helps. It is looking like we will go into lockdown this next week which should help to get R<1 which if that happens will bring cases down by your end on November early December. However if we have not beefed up T&T by then it will just be off again but could just but us the time to get vaccination going IF we have an effective vaccine. The NW is in for a tough six weeks-minimum and the poor people awaiting non-urgent care have yet more suffering to endure, not to mention those needing chemo where the balance between benefit and harm changes with the prevalence of this bug.
Personally I think we are in for major difficulties over the next few months if we do not have a lockdown which allows us to rebalance things.
Let's hope that we don't have to lock down. If we do have to lock down, lets hope that it will be in conjunction with the start of a 'vaccine rollout'. I posted this week that there are three vaccine projects that are all confident of a vaccine that will offer at least some partial protection. Like you say it's "IF we have a vaccine". It's not 100% guaranteed but three projects are confident - two of which are claiming that the vaccine will be effective for the elderly.

If we lockdown with a vaccine rollout we could come out of it with a 'fighting chance'.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by FactualFrank » Sat Oct 31, 2020 10:15 am

UnderSeige wrote:
Sat Oct 31, 2020 10:14 am
Let's hope that we don't have to lock down. If we do have to lock down, lets hope that it will be in conjunction with the start of a 'vaccine rollout'. I posted this week that there are three vaccine projects that are all confident of a vaccine that will offer at least some partial protection. Like you say it's "IF we have a vaccine". It's not 100% guaranteed but three projects are confident - two of which are claiming that the vaccine will be effective for the elderly.

If we lockdown with a vaccine rollout we could come out of it with a 'fighting chance'.
It seems almost certain that Boris is going to announce a lockdown next week. What I do hope is that in that 4 week period they improve the heap of shite track and trace system.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by mdd2 » Sat Oct 31, 2020 10:29 am

Vaccine will be too late for that US_even if it were available it is a massive task to vaccinate NHS staff care home staff and residents as well as all those over say 65 in a few weeks
It is track and trace that needs to be up and running pari passu (that better than rhyming slang :D :D ) easing of lock down and of course a vaccine if available

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Sat Oct 31, 2020 11:00 am

mdd2 wrote:
Sat Oct 31, 2020 10:02 am
Take the masks for instance.

Every single expert from Vallance to Whitty to Van Tam insisted on tv that there was no evidence that they worked. And went as far as saying could make things worse.

Anyone with half a brain could see that the only reason they said this was so normal folk didn’t buy up the nhs resources.

Then the advice changed. And it wasn’t based on changing evidence. It was because of the above.

Hi CFC I have been firtling around and pasted below regarding face masks
Reading this I think at the time at best there was not much evidence for the widespread use of masks and there may have been an element initially to protect the NHS but not sure advice changed because there became an abundance of masks. The evidence base for use is not great but they are of some use which makes me wonder why one of the Experts in the US said he would wear a mask in preference to taking a vaccine if the latter were only 50% protective claiming the mask was better. There is no doubt some masks are much more effective than 50% like the types worn by staff caring for Covid patients but no sure of the bog standard ones in use and reusable ones we see folk wearing may be more harmful than good if not washed regularly and correctly-60 degrees is the advice i have been given.

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/S2213-2600(20)30352-0
The World Health Organisation also advised against masks until June.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52945210

I was wearing masks from March onwards. I bought some washable one's from Amazon. I believe they came from China.

It is now a legal requirement to wear them in shops but I still see many people not bothering to wear them.

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Re: SARS-COV2 could cease to be a pandemic in the near future

Post by UnderSeige » Sat Oct 31, 2020 11:10 am

FactualFrank wrote:
Sat Oct 31, 2020 10:15 am
It seems almost certain that Boris is going to announce a lockdown next week. What I do hope is that in that 4 week period they improve the heap of shite track and trace system.
If they do a National Lockdown they will go ballistic in the South where the case rates are still relatively low. Do you think he might do a Level 4 (lockdown) or something just for the North and Midlands?

Locked