Rapid tests - how important?

[cricketfieldclarets]

For me the news on rapid tests yesterday was very positive against a backdrop of negativity and probably hasn’t got the attention it warrants. In part that’s probably down to understandable scepticism.

But of rolled out how much of an impact can this make?

To me I feel this is not important than a vaccine for many reasons.

No unknown long term side effects
More ethical
Instant knowledge as to how prevelent and even dangerous the virus is (highlighting truer mortality rates)
Ability to quickly test large groups and allow services to reopen fully with virus free people (think shops, pubs, schools even stadiums and airports). Preventing infectious people going into care homes or even parts of hospitals and surgeries. Allowing the vulnerable to re enter society.


Obviously treatments and vaccines will be crucial longer term. But even just improved testing could see a way out of this mess.

There is obviously the concern around accuracy both false positives and negatives. But surely we can take that into consideration with any strategy.

I also feel there will be much bigger uptake and trust of this than vaccines.

Will need investment. And cooperation. And people just being honest and isolating when they need to.

Hopefully the governments Statement on this is backed up by investment to create and deploy.

[Iloveyoubrady]

Yes definitely. Could even let us get back on the turf. If prices of rapid testing come down a lot, which I think they will, I don’t think fans would mind if they had to pay extra to cover the cost.

[cricketfieldclarets]

Yes definitely. Could even let us get back on the turf. If prices of rapid testing come down a lot, which I think they will, I don’t think fans would mind if they had to pay extra to cover the cost.

I’d happily take one a day to get back to some normality.

Saying that if we weren’t playing so poorly I’d take a Russian vaccine to go on turf.

[Devils_Advocate]

If its gonna work it has to be Test, Trace, Isolate & Support. Its useless unless we can do the full package and this means a financial reward package from the govt to ensure people can and will isolate

People will abuse it but we have to accept that whilst some will fleece the system the overall benefit outweighs the cost of the fraudulent claims

[FactualFrank]

If its gonna work it has to be Test, Trace, Isolate & Support. Its useless unless we can do the full package and this means a financial reward package from the govt to ensure people can and will isolate

People will abuse it but we have to accept that some will fleece the system but the overall benefit outweighs the cost of fraudulent claims

More like Test, Trace, Isolate & make sure they are feckin isolating.

[Grumps]

Need to be used on teachers, nurses, care home staff regularly ... Then there was talk about testing all cities... Good luck with that one
Eventually could be used for sporting events, but I think that will be long down the line.

[cricketfieldclarets]

If its gonna work it has to be Test, Trace, Isolate & Support. Its useless unless we can do the full package and this means a financial reward package from the govt to ensure people can and will isolate

People will abuse it but we have to accept that some will fleece the system but the overall benefit outweighs the cost of fraudulent claims

I think we’d have to factor in that there will be a percentage that slip through. Either false negatives or selfish *****. Or just genuine cases that somehow spread.

But yes may need some incentive. Especially if people can’t work.

[cricketfieldclarets]

Need to be used on teachers, nurses, care home staff regularly ... Then there was talk about testing all cities... Good luck with that one
Eventually could be used for sporting events, but I think that will be long down the line.

Yes stadiums is far from priority number one.

[cricketfieldclarets]

Need to be used on teachers, nurses, care home staff regularly ... Then there was talk about testing all cities... Good luck with that one
Eventually could be used for sporting events, but I think that will be long down the line.

Slovakia tested half the entire country in one day. 2.5m with 1% positive. That’s some effort. And possibly a brilliant way to get back to some normality. Granted that those hospitalised will pose a threat to nurses who pose a threat their household. But still a way to make huge progress there.

[Devils_Advocate]

More like Test, Trace, Isolate & make sure they are feckin isolating.

We do but to work it relies on a somewhat compliant society and without the financial support people wont engage with the track & trace systems and they wont proactively get tested for fear of having to lockdown in what could financially be a very difficult situation

No way do we have the capability to make this work without the peoples consent and participation and that will take govt spending

[Grumps]

Slovakia tested half the entire country in one day. 2.5m with 1% positive. That’s some effort. And possibly a brilliant way to get back to some normality. Granted that those hospitalised will pose a threat to nurses who pose a threat their household. But still a way to make huge progress there.

Thats a fantastic effort..... What confidence do we have that we could get anywhere near that.
I guess Blackburn could be first, seeing its got the worst figures, how would they manage 120k in a day? Not a chance.

[CombatClaret]

April
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ntists-say
Coronavirus 'game changer' testing kits could be unreliable, UK scientists say

This government has told us countless times the magic bullet is just around the corner. This also helps feeds the idea that people can afford be less careful than they should.

Prior a vaccine, testing is the way we can keep a handle on this virus. But for rapid tests to be used in the way some have described eg: Want to go on turf, turn up, have a test, wait 5minutes, ok in you go. You would need numbers equivalent to paper cups, millions a day.

[TheFamilyCat]

We do but to work it relies on a somewhat compliant society and without the financial support people wont engage with the track & trace systems and they wont proactively get tested for fear of having to lockdown in what could financially be a very difficult situation

No way do we have the capability to make this work without the peoples consent and participation and that will take govt spending

If only they'd not spunked billions away on a third rate track and trace system.

[Devils_Advocate]

If only they'd not spunked billions away on a third rate track and trace system.

Its been an absolute disgrace and there is good work going on to bring them to account for this. That said we are where we are now and we have to look forward so if the govt can get a good strategy around Test, trace, isolate & support which the majority of the people could unite behind then they will get my full support.

I am not confident but I will remain hopeful

[mdd2]

Superficially this is excellent news but as someone has posted it is important that the specificity and sensitivity is published so that we know how reliable the test is. Specificity is how often there is a false positive so that a test that is 95% specific means a 5% false positive rate so 1 in 20 of those who do not have the virus would have a positive test. Sensitivity is the percentage of false negatives. A test that is 80% sensitive (which is the present testing used with the swabs) means 20% false negatives so that 1 in 5 of those with the virus will test negative on a single test.
One of the things that was rarely mentioned when every man and his dog were clamouring for testing was the inherent inaccuracies with testing and this is particularly so when assessing those who are well. When you have someone with clear symptoms of Covid who tests negative, armed with the chances of a false negative test, one would re-test.

CFC posted about the test
No unknown long term side effects

A false negative test could be pretty bad news if one passes on infection to vulnerable relatives in the belief that you do not have the virus.
When I last checked, death was pretty long term.

[cricketfieldclarets]

April
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ntists-say
Coronavirus 'game changer' testing kits could be unreliable, UK scientists say

This government has told us countless times the magic bullet is just around the corner. This also helps feeds the idea that people can afford be less careful than they should.

Prior a vaccine, testing is the way we can keep a handle on this virus. But for rapid tests to be used in the way some have described eg: Want to go on turf, turn up, have a test, wait 5minutes, ok in you go. You would need numbers equivalent to paper cups, millions a day.

Do you have ANY optimism at all

[tim_noone]

Keep Calm and drink tea.

[cricketfieldclarets]

CFC posted about the test
No unknown long term side effects

A false negative test could be pretty bad news if one passes on infection to vulnerable relatives in the belief that you do not have the virus.
When I last checked, death was pretty long term.

I accept that. But if it helps bring down the overall death toll. And if someone with symptoms tests positive either remains cautious or retests...

[CombatClaret]

Do you have ANY optimism at all

Viruses don't care about optimism.
But.
False hope or complacency can kill.

[mdd2]

I accept that. But if it helps bring down the overall death toll. And if someone with symptoms tests positive either remains cautious or retests...

Agree CFC but with regard to picking up carriers with no symptoms needs a pretty sensitive test and you can bet thw 15 minute job will be less sensitive than the present one which can give a result in a few hours but it is difficult to do hundreds of thousand/day in that turn around time.
Our best chance is a good track and trace once we get the R number <1 and cases are in hundreds and thousands/day not the present numbers (I think)
stay safe in lockdown and don't lose the key!!!!!!

[Zlatan]

The thing I have raised with my Conservative MP (who is also a junior health minister I believe) is this. As someone who is having regular blood tests every 8 weeks for my chronic health condition (which also puts me in high risk group) is why aren’t my blood samples being tested for Covid or Covid antibodies? The NHS have a vast amount of high risk patients who are similar to me who could be regularly tested as a matter of course, if someone actually decided to do it.

[taio]

The thing I have raised with my Conservative MP (who is also a junior health minister I believe) is this. As someone who is having regular blood tests every 8 weeks for my chronic health condition (which also puts me in high risk group) is why aren’t my blood samples being tested for Covid or Covid antibodies? The NHS have a vast amount of high risk patients who are similar to me who could be regularly tested as a matter of course, if someone actually decided to do it.

The test for Covid is not a blood test because it's a viral rather than bacterial infection.

[ksrclaret]

Viruses don't care about optimism.
But.
False hope or complacency can kill.

But.
Lack of hope kills.
Something about mental health.

[cricketfieldclarets]

Viruses don't care about optimism.
But.
False hope or complacency can kill.

Absolutely. But your posts on this subject always lack any balance, hope, positivity or optimism.

[Zlatan]

The test for Covid is not a blood test because it's a viral rather than bacterial infection.

The antibody test uses a blood sample

[taio]

The antibody test uses a blood sample

You also said Covid test i.e. antigen which is why I explained why that wasn't possible in the way you asked about.

[Zlatan]

You also said Covid test i.e. antigen which is why I explained why that wasn't possible in the way you asked about.

Thanks for that. Apologies for the mistake. I won’t do it again.

Now, how about answering why they won’t routinely check for antibodies in all hospital blood tests? Thanks.

[CombatClaret]

Absolutely. But your posts on this subject always lack any balance, hope, positivity or optimism.

I don't really care about optimism, it's not a scientific. Saying everything will be alright, when perhaps it won't be can be very dangerous.
My posts are usually balanced though because they follow the overwhelming scientific consensus or pragmatism.

I don't see much balance in the poster on this forum amplifying, for example interviews from one anti-lockdown scientist who is in direct opposition of the 300+ doctors and scientists who work for SAGE for example. They do this in the name of balance
That's not balance, it's false equivalence. It is not true to say that person's opinion is EQUALLY valid where they are massively outweighed by the overwhelming majority of scientific consensus to the contrary.

[taio]

Thanks for that. Apologies for the mistake. I won’t do it again.

Now, how about answering why they won’t routinely check for antibodies in all hospital blood tests? Thanks.

I was merely answering your question trying to help.

Antibody tests aren't always reliable and can create a false sense security for the extremely clincially vulnerable and clinically vulnerable because we don't know how long antibodies last or for certain that people can't be reinfected.

[Somethingfishy]

If they can get rapid tests up and running then surely we have a way out of this? Maybe we could use the hotels not being used as covid isolation centres. Anyone found positive isolates together away from the rest of society for 2 weeks. If we could get everyone to test themselves and the positives do this surely we could do a good job of killing this virus and getting back to normality a lot quicker. Yes a bit of hardship breaking families up etc but the ability to mass test and isolate could be a gamechanger.

[FactualFrank]

So long as nobody ever says that these rapid tests are "world beating", then they might actually work.

[Zlatan]

I was merely answering your question trying to help.

Antibody tests aren't always reliable and can create a false sense security for the extremely clincially vulnerable and clinically vulnerable because we don't know how long antibodies last or for certain that people can't be reinfected.

Fair enough, your responses did appear to be a little condescending though. I have read articles where blood samples can be used for testing for active Covid though, hence the way I worded my original query.

[taio]

Fair enough, your responses did appear to be a little condescending though. I have read articles where blood samples can be used for testing for active Covid though, hence the way I worded my original query.

The NHS doesn't test blood for Covid. Who is testing blood for Covid?

[Devils_Advocate]

I've seen several Tory MPs come out and state they will vote against the Govts lockdown measures. For this lockdown to have a real long term value it needs all the people in the governing party to really get behind it otherwise the sniping, negativity and in fighting will stop the govt from putting everything in place and getting a large part of the population onboard as is needed.

The vote will get through because of Labour and the other partys but this just sets up the libertarian/brexit right of the party to take no accountability which again will just undermine it

It wont (and really shouldnt) happen but there is a part of me that would like Labour and the SNP to come out and say we fully support the lockdown but it will only work with full support from the Tory party. With that in mind they should abstain from voting and put the onus and accountability on the govt and their party to make the decision (whilst being clear they support the lockdown)

This will really force the Tory MPs to consider their actions as any negative consequences of their votes will clearly rest on their shoulders with the general public and their constituents

As it stands I really hope the few anti lockdown MPs are just an exceptional few but it doesnt fill me with hope that the party running the country will make a success of this essential lockdown