3 from 5 already

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RalphCoatesComb
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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by RalphCoatesComb » Sat Feb 13, 2021 8:10 pm

As we leave the bottom 5 for the first time, things are looking so much better. Bottom 3 to go down now !
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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Jeffbfc » Sat Feb 13, 2021 8:41 pm

Look even better if none of them three win this weekend

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by ElectroClaret » Sat Feb 13, 2021 8:50 pm

I think the bottom three have in reality been doomed for a few weeks now, tbh.

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by RalphCoatesComb » Sat Feb 13, 2021 10:05 pm

You blink, and we're back in the bottom 5 :(

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by tiger76 » Sat Feb 13, 2021 10:05 pm

It's looking grim for the bottom 3 now, and indeed it has for a while, but the fact that all the teams above them have been picking up points at a regular rate makes their task even more difficult, Fulham have a slim chance of mounting a late survival bid, but they'll probably have to beat us twice, not impossible by any means, but not something I'd be putting any money on.

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Spijed » Sun Feb 14, 2021 10:05 pm

Just had a quick look at the form table for last ten matches:
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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Spijed » Mon Feb 15, 2021 12:14 am

Worth looking at the table from last season after we'd played 23 matches. Villa were four points up on where Fulham are currently are and they finished on 35 points. Even Norwich who looked doomed only had one point less.

Very similar in terms of points. Interesting to note as well that if you swap Wolves & Sheff United for Villa and West Ham you get a similar table to this season with both Spurs and Arsenal struggling and Leicester in the top four.
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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by dibraidio » Mon Feb 15, 2021 8:32 am

Interesting that last season there were 5 teams below 25 points, this season just 3. Last season the gap between 16th and 18th was just 1 point, 16th and bottom only 6. This season 16th to 18th is 8 points and 16th to bottom is 15.

Brighton have had great form of late as have Burnley despite playing some top teams which must be demoralising for the bottom three. Having said that Newcastle, Southampton and Palace look like they're determined to gatecrash this party.

Burnley could be up to 12th by Saturday tea time if results go our way.

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Conroysleftfoot » Mon Feb 15, 2021 8:46 am

Geordies must be somewhat concerned without Wilson for the next few weeks.

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by jojomk1 » Mon Feb 15, 2021 8:57 am

Conroysleftfoot wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 8:46 am
Geordies must be somewhat concerned without Wilson for the next few weeks.
And without a fair few centre backs. They could be the team that fall

Also Southampton on a long losing streak

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Longsider » Mon Feb 15, 2021 9:03 am

I don't think we can be complacent. It's in our blood as Burnley fans to be over cautious.

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by MACCA » Mon Feb 15, 2021 9:21 am

4 points from this weeks 2 home games and we are all but safe.

Would mean we are on 30 points with 13 games remaining, but more importantly fulham needing 4 wins just to catch us, when they'd only won 3 of the first 25 games.

That's without factoring in Newcastle, Southampton and Palace that seem to be in poor form.

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Marney&Mee » Mon Feb 15, 2021 9:31 am

MACCA wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 9:21 am
4 points from this weeks 2 home games and we are all but safe.

Would mean we are on 30 points with 13 games remaining, but more importantly fulham needing 4 wins just to catch us, when they'd only won 3 of the first 25 games.

That's without factoring in Newcastle, Southampton and Palace that seem to be in poor form.
Agreed Macca. I just can't see Burnley letting Fulham and/or WBA beating us at home. Looking up not down

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by kentonclaret » Mon Feb 15, 2021 9:37 am

If the stat that they quoted on Saturday regarding Palace (lost 18 out of 20 games played without Zaha) was correct then they need to get him fit as soon as.

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by warksclaret » Mon Feb 15, 2021 10:06 am

Its in our own hands-we just need to pick up points as we have been doing and prayer no injuries to Tarks, Pope and Mee. And of course hope we dont go any of those long bad runs, but Saturday was huge. Having said that Fulham will ne push overs on Wednesday.

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by evensteadiereddie » Mon Feb 15, 2021 10:28 am

A point a game will do us just fine. Any advance on that just brings safety that much sooner.

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Firthy » Mon Feb 15, 2021 10:33 am

Marney&Mee wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 9:31 am
Agreed Macca. I just can't see Burnley letting Fulham and/or WBA beating us at home. Looking up not down
I bet Everton fans thought the same thing. Can't take anything for granted, especially with the refs and VAR being so inept.

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by ewanrob » Mon Feb 15, 2021 10:41 am

The teams who turn up chasing the pack, always seem to have the edge....nothing to lose but to go for it.

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by brexit » Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:18 am

I have WBA, Newcastle and Southampton to go down at 66-1

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by dsr » Mon Feb 15, 2021 3:03 pm

brexit wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:18 am
I have WBA, Newcastle and Southampton to go down at 66-1
I think you've been diddled on the odds. Sheffield United need to win 6 just to catch up with Southampton, and that's if Southampton lose their last 15. Since Sheff U have so far managed to beat 1 football team, plus home wins against an abysmal West Brom and an even worse 10-man Newcastle, I wouldn't hold my breath!

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by RalphCoatesComb » Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:19 pm

brexit wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:18 am
I have WBA, Newcastle and Southampton to go down at 66-1
Surely, that's a typo.

666-1 more like. Sheffield are already down ;)

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Firthy » Tue Feb 16, 2021 9:09 am

RalphCoatesComb wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:19 pm
Surely, that's a typo.

666-1 more like. Sheffield are already down ;)
And no chance of Newcastle getting relegated with Hendrick in the team.

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Spijed » Wed Feb 17, 2021 10:12 pm

Fulham have only lost 3 of their last 13 matches, drawing 9 of them but only winning 1.

Us on the other hand have won 5 games during the same period.

Failure to turn draws into wins could be the reason Fulham get relegated.

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by RalphCoatesComb » Wed Feb 17, 2021 10:18 pm

Good to see us out of the bottom 5

Newcastle are looking in trouble :D

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by tiger76 » Wed Feb 17, 2021 10:22 pm

The bottom 2 need the miracle of miracles, and it ain't gonna happen, so Fulham are the only ones with any realistic survival prospects, and the form & injuries of some of the teams above them offers them hope, notably Newcastle, Palace & Southampton, but they still have a fair number of points to make up, and the games are slowly beginning to run out, they'll need at least 4 points from the Sheff Utd & Palace games to keep them in touch, and ideally they could do with 6 really, they are tough to beat, but until they start turning these draws into wins they'll struggle to close the gap, unless one or more of the sides above them completely implodes.

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by boatshed bill » Wed Feb 17, 2021 10:39 pm

A point a game gives us 41. I can see us doing that.

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Spijed » Sat Feb 20, 2021 7:00 pm

boatshed bill wrote:
Wed Feb 17, 2021 10:39 pm
A point a game gives us 41. I can see us doing that.
We are one point behind where I thought we might be after these last four games.

I thought we might get two home wins, plus a draw and possibly lose away at Palace.

All in all I suppose six points from these four games is better than nothing, especially as we stopped any of the other sides gaining any points on us.

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by warksclaret » Sat Feb 20, 2021 7:11 pm

boatshed bill wrote:
Wed Feb 17, 2021 10:39 pm
A point a game gives us 41. I can see us doing that.
I said a few games ago we would average a point a game. Its just a bit worrying when after 180 minutes of playing WBA we could not score. Think we will finish now between 38 and 40

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by RalphCoatesComb » Sat Feb 20, 2021 7:13 pm

boatshed bill wrote:
Wed Feb 17, 2021 10:39 pm
A point a game gives us 41. I can see us doing that.
We SHOULD manage that which will be enough, then we need to regroup and strengthen the squad.

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Dark Cloud » Sat Feb 20, 2021 7:15 pm

A point a game takes into account us beating teams who are rubbish and losing to the good ones. Well let's just think about this past week (and our next game(s).

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Spijed » Sun Feb 21, 2021 7:06 pm

A good analysis of who has got results against others:
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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by ElectroClaret » Sun Feb 21, 2021 7:08 pm

35 points will be quite sufficient.

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by tiger76 » Sun Feb 21, 2021 7:12 pm

ElectroClaret wrote:
Sun Feb 21, 2021 7:08 pm
35 points will be quite sufficient.
I hope your right, but even 35 points seems a long way away ATM, and I think 37-38 will be a more likely number needed, due to Fulham suddenly sparking to life over the past week.

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by RalphCoatesComb » Sun Feb 21, 2021 8:49 pm

tiger76 wrote:
Sun Feb 21, 2021 7:12 pm
I think 37-38 will be a more likely number needed
I'm with you but I think it's very achievable :)

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by tiger76 » Sun Feb 21, 2021 8:58 pm

RalphCoatesComb wrote:
Sun Feb 21, 2021 8:49 pm
I'm with you but I think it's very achievable :)
Very achievable if we get our regulars back fit and firing yes, and our long term form does suggest we're perfectly capable of notching that figure as a minimum, however the growing injury list, and the obvious fatigue in the squad is a worry.
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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Spijed » Sun Feb 21, 2021 9:07 pm

in the following seasons the teams in 18th got the following points:

12/13 Wigan 36
13/14 Norwich 36
14/15 Hull 35
15/16 Newcastle 37
16/17 Hull 34
17/18 Swansea 33
18/19 Cardiff 34
19/20 Bournemouth 34

Haven't checked how many of those teams were already relegated before the last match, and whether any points they accumulated thereafter were irrelevant.

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by boatshed bill » Sun Feb 21, 2021 9:16 pm

Spijed wrote:
Sun Feb 21, 2021 9:07 pm
in the following seasons the teams in 18th got the following points:

12/13 Wigan 36
13/14 Norwich 36
14/15 Hull 35
15/16 Newcastle 37
16/17 Hull 34
17/18 Swansea 33
18/19 Cardiff 34
19/20 Bournemouth 34

Haven't checked how many of those teams were already relegated before the last match, and whether any points they accumulated thereafter were irrelevant.
So 38 is the required number?

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Spijed » Sun Feb 21, 2021 9:21 pm

boatshed bill wrote:
Sun Feb 21, 2021 9:16 pm
So 38 is the required number?
Just checked and Newcastle were already relegated on 34 points, along with Norwich that season. They just happen to win their last game against Spurs.

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Wokingclaret » Sun Feb 21, 2021 9:21 pm

tiger76 wrote:
Sun Feb 21, 2021 8:58 pm
Very achievable if we get our regulars back fit and firing yes, and our long term form does suggest we're perfectly capable of notching that figure as a minimum, however the growing injury list, and the obvious fatigue in the squad is a worry.
The two made of Glass wingers are a real concern, we need them both fit

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by bobinho » Sun Feb 21, 2021 9:26 pm

Nope, not necessarily Bill.

FWIW, I think 34 this year sees us safe. 35 for sure...

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by tiger76 » Sun Feb 21, 2021 9:33 pm

Wokingclaret wrote:
Sun Feb 21, 2021 9:21 pm
The two made of Glass wingers are a real concern, we need them both fit
We do but let's be honest we shouldn't be :o both have missed a number of games this season, it's not like their niggling injuries are a new thing is it. JBG is the one who was really starting to show his worth in recent games, and even if we get him fit it would be a big boost to our hopes.

Robbie has been more hit and miss in recent weeks, and for me he's not as big a loss to us, of course any player being unavailable isn't ideal when you're carrying a small squad to start with, but Robbie hasn't really impacted in a game for several weeks now.

Plus it's a problem that Dwight is also off colour this season for whatever reason. this means we're a lot easier to defend against, and probably explains our lack of goals, even yesterday West Brom kept us comfortably at arms length with only 10 men because we couldn't stretch the play.
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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Elizabeth » Sun Feb 21, 2021 9:46 pm

Fulham have given themselves a fighting chance , nothing more. Credit to them but let’s see how they do after playing Palace next week.

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Wokingclaret » Sun Feb 21, 2021 10:00 pm

Elizabeth wrote:
Sun Feb 21, 2021 9:46 pm
Fulham have given themselves a fighting chance , nothing more. Credit to them but let’s see how they do after playing Palace next week.
They have, but the press are blowing their trumpet, played Everton when the toffees didn't show, toothless really against us and then apart from dominating Sheff U won by one goal and should have given a penalty away........

Interesting week to see how Palace do against Brighton and Fulham

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Wokingclaret » Sun Feb 21, 2021 10:01 pm

tiger76 wrote:
Sun Feb 21, 2021 9:33 pm
We do but let's be honest we shouldn't be :o both have missed a number of games this season, it's not like their niggling injuries are a new thing is it. JBG is the one who was really starting to show his worth in recent games, and even if we get him fit it would be a big boost to our hopes.

Robbie has been more hit and miss in recent weeks, and for me he's not as big a loss to us, of course any player being unavailable isn't ideal when you're carrying a small squad to start with, but Robbie hasn't really impacted in a game for several weeks now.

Plus it's a problem that Dwight is also off colour this season for whatever reason. this means we're a lot easier to defend against, and probably explains our lack of goals, even yesterday West Brom kept us comfortably at arms length with only 10 men because we couldn't stretch the play.
Enjoy your posts Tiger76

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Elizabeth » Sun Feb 21, 2021 10:13 pm

Wokingclaret wrote:
Sun Feb 21, 2021 10:00 pm
They have, but the press are blowing their trumpet, played Everton when the toffees didn't show, toothless really against us and then apart from dominating Sheff U won by one goal and should have given a penalty away........

Interesting week to see how Palace do against Brighton and Fulham
Yes , Palace were awful against us and could be the team to slide into trouble

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by jurek » Sun Feb 21, 2021 10:40 pm

If Fulham can manage another win against Palace
then it's going to make it very interesting and it's going to make it
any one from up to six including ourselves and Southampton.

We've got some tough fixtures coming up in our next 4/5 games
but then so do Fulham. Both Newcastle, Brighton have games coming up
where they are likely to get some points on the board.
On paper we and Fulham seem to have the most difficult run in
and they'll need to win 2 more games than us to catch and possibly go above us.

It's likely to be a dog fight unless Fulham do not continue
in the same or better form than in their last 5'6 games.

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Wokingclaret » Sun Feb 21, 2021 10:56 pm

The good thing for us against Fulham and WBA, if you can't win don't lose them.

The worry for us is the injuries, we looked knackered (Fulham don't). Nothing on the bench, will we get these players back, can they stay fit.

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by Wokingclaret » Sun Feb 21, 2021 10:58 pm

Leicester home game getting scheduled after Spurs is not going to help.

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by brexit » Sun Feb 21, 2021 11:12 pm

RalphCoatesComb wrote:
Mon Feb 15, 2021 11:19 pm
Surely, that's a typo.

666-1 more like. Sheffield are already down ;)
It was pre season but I think it will be WBA, sheff utd and Southampton

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Re: 3 from 5 already

Post by RalphCoatesComb » Sun Feb 21, 2021 11:15 pm

brexit wrote:
Sun Feb 21, 2021 11:12 pm
It was pre season but I think it will be WBA, sheff utd and Southampton
Southampton?? Currently around 70/1 to go down. Could make some serious coin there ;)

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