Will 35 points be enough?

[houseboy]

We need a 2 point gap from Fulham and Newcastle going into the last game.

We’ll have a 10 point gap on those by then, Dyche will play the reserves in the last game and rest the first team.

[houseboy]

It would prevent people saying “ I KNOW FOR A FACT that we can’t get relegated” when it’s far from mathematically certain.....

There is a point in the season when it’s mathematically possible for City to be relegated. At that point do you think their message boards are full of people saying ‘we’re not safe yet, mathematically’? We’re not getting relegated...end of.

[ewanrob]

Could see Fulham reasonably getting 9 points, then there is the chance of a freak result/s...so I'd say we need 38.

Newcastle will.pull away...their luck has to change

[burnley007]

It wouldn't surprise me if Fulham & Newcastle both struggle to catch us at 33 points.
Fulham will struggle to get another 8 points, to pass us on 33.

1 more win should do it, especially against the Mags!

[dsr]

Could see Fulham reasonably getting 9 points, then there is the chance of a freak result/s...so I'd say we need 38.

Newcastle will.pull away...their luck has to change

I haven't seen any signs of Newcastle's run being unlucky. As Len Shackleton (I think) was first to say, against Brighton they were lucky to get nil.

[ewanrob]

I haven't seen any signs of Newcastle's run being unlucky. As Len Shackleton (I think) was first to say, against Brighton they were lucky to get nil.

Meant more with injuries and loss of form....youd think at some point they will pick up some wins....although, that run in !!

[Stalbansclaret]

I haven't seen any signs of Newcastle's run being unlucky. As Len Shackleton (I think) was first to say, against Brighton they were lucky to get nil.

Their unluckiness has been with injuries. As soon as both Wilson and St Maximin were ruled out simultaneously they were always going to struggle to score goals. Almiron was also out until the other day when Isaac Hayden's season looks to have been ended.

Having said that any club signing Joelinton for £40m on a 6 year deal deserve what they get.

[houseboy]

Most of the talk seems to be about Fulham, Newcastle, Brighton and us on here. Odd that so little is said about Southampton who have an identical record to us but form that is scraping the barrel. The reasons why we won’t go down are simple.
A. Fulham are 7 points behind us and are simply not as good.
B. We have averaged over a point per game including our awful start with no real reason to see that changing.
C. Newcastle are in complete melt down, 5 points behind us with a goal difference that’s worth a point to us.
D. Southampton can hardly buy a point at the moment let alone a win. If we win there they are well in the mix.
E. Brighton are not out of the woods yet but to be fair they are probably too good to go down.
F. Our run in is hardly scarey and even our two toughest looking games (Utd & Liverpool) are not the worst historically against the big 6.

Rest your weary heads guys, we are looking at mid table.

[CleggHall]

That’s reassuring houseboy!

[box_of_frogs]

There is a point in the season when it’s mathematically possible for City to be relegated. At that point do you think their message boards are full of people saying ‘we’re not safe yet, mathematically’? We’re not getting relegated...end of.

I assume you’ve bet your house on it? Especially given our City like performances?

Do I expect us to go down? No. Am I arrogant enough to say we aren’t getting relegated ‘end of’. No.

[boatshed bill]

I assume you’ve bet your house on it? Especially given our City like performances?

Do I expect us to go down? No. Am I arrogant enough to say we aren’t getting relegated ‘end of’. No.

Exactly this.
And maybe 35-37 points will be enough, but is it satisfactory?
Is there any point in being just good enough to stay up?

[Dark Cloud]

As always, I'll be a bag of nerves until it's mathematically impossible to go down. It's clear that the Fulham and Newcastle games are where the crunch will come and to a lesser extent Southampton. Assuming we get nothing from Utd or Liverpool (I know we SOMETIMES do, but...) you'd have to think beating Fulham and Newcastle would make it pretty much impossible for us to be relegated by one of them, particularly by Fulham. If we still need something going into the last game it really would be our own fault and playing against a team already down with nowt to play for isn't necessarily as easy as it sounds.

[taio]

Exactly this.
And maybe 35-37 points will be enough, but is it satisfactory?
Is there any point in being just good enough to stay up?

Yes. Because we aim to improve the following season. We have obviously done more than just enough to stay up in the past like when we finished 7th and 10th.

[boatshed bill]

Yes. Because we aim to improve the following season. We have obviously done more than just enough to stay up in the past like when we finished 7th and 10th.

Yes, on those occasions.
I'd like to know what the board considers good enough.
Frankly, seasons like this, with so many posters on here just checking out what's likely to be below us in May just doesn't cut it.

[taio]

Yes, on those occasions.
I'd like to know what the board considers good enough.
Frankly, seasons like this, with so many posters on here just checking out what's likely to be below us in May just doesn't cut it.

I would guess the first priority of the board is premier league survival and anything more than that is a huge bonus which seems realistic and fair enough to me.

[Dark Cloud]

Yes. Because we aim to improve the following season. We have obviously done more than just enough to stay up in the past like when we finished 7th and 10th.

I agree with this. If you take this season in isolation it would be easy to say we might just "cling on" and where's the fun in that and we're only postponing the inevitable and it's hardly been inspiring stuff much of the time and overall what's the point if it's just going to be more of the same next season? But it's not been like that every season and this season injuries have been our real issue for the first time in the PL meaning our thin squad and lack of transfer activity has caught up with us to some extent. We now have new owners and we just might (maybe?) see some more serious intent during the summer window, but that's going to be dependent on staying up. Things COULD really change and therefore I desperately hope we do stay up so we can see what their intentions really are. If they don't address things and it's like the last 3 or 4 transfer windows, then we'll get what we deserve at some stage and it'll be a long hard slog next season and we'll probably (deservedly) slip out, but I want to see them given that opportunity this summer.

[Bigvince]

Yes, on those occasions.
I'd like to know what the board considers good enough.
Frankly, seasons like this, with so many posters on here just checking out what's likely to be below us in May just doesn't cut it.

I think on this occasion, doing enough to stay up will do just fine. It’s been an extraordinary 12 months, with the last summer transfer window being a washout, probably down to the fact MG didn’t want to spend with the takeover in the offing. And added to that our injury crisis, particularly at the beginning of the current campaign with injuries in key areas. And on top of that the effect of the COVID pandemic on the game.
Let’s get this season over with, retain our premier league status, and go again next season. UTC!

[boatshed bill]

I think on this occasion, doing enough to stay up will do just fine. It’s been an extraordinary 12 months, with the last summer transfer window being a washout, probably down to the fact MG didn’t want to spend with the takeover in the offing. And added to that our injury crisis, particularly at the beginning of the current campaign with injuries in key areas. And on top of that the effect of the COVID pandemic on the game.
Let’s get this season over with, retain our premier league status, and go again next season. UTC!

I get all this, Vince, can't disagree with what you are saying about this season, just that I believe that if you aim for 17th often enough you eventually come 18th.
The other point is that BFC is meant to be in an entertainment business. Not sure we all accept a lack of entertainment for the sake of PL status.
Strangely, wer have been quite entertaining lately... as long as we don't play other relegation candidates

[tiger76]

Most of the talk seems to be about Fulham, Newcastle, Brighton and us on here. Odd that so little is said about Southampton who have an identical record to us but form that is scraping the barrel. The reasons why we won’t go down are simple.
A. Fulham are 7 points behind us and are simply not as good.
B. We have averaged over a point per game including our awful start with no real reason to see that changing.
C. Newcastle are in complete melt down, 5 points behind us with a goal difference that’s worth a point to us.
D. Southampton can hardly buy a point at the moment let alone a win. If we win there they are well in the mix.
E. Brighton are not out of the woods yet but to be fair they are probably too good to go down.
F. Our run in is hardly scarey and even our two toughest looking games (Utd & Liverpool) are not the worst historically against the big 6.

Rest your weary heads guys, we are looking at mid table.

Excellent summary houseboy, we've lost 1 in 8, and just played Everton off their own pitch, meanwhile Fulham, Newcastle & Southampton can't buy a win, and yet some folks still think we'll be involved in a relegation scrap come May, the only reason we're even discussing this is because we had a sluggish start to the campaign, plus many fans are bored and want to inject an element of suspense towards the end of the long season.

Even being extremely conservative we'll pick up between 7-9 points from our remaining games, and I strongly suspect we'll collect more than that.

Like you my one large regret is our cup exit to Bournemouth, Southampton dispatched them with ease, and on any given day I'd fancy us beating Southampton, especially with the home advantage we'd have enjoyed.

[houseboy]

I assume you’ve bet your house on it? Especially given our City like performances?

Do I expect us to go down? No. Am I arrogant enough to say we aren’t getting relegated ‘end of’. No.

I don’t gamble.
It’s not arrogant to state a reasonably acceptable fact.

[dsr]

Exactly this.
And maybe 35-37 points will be enough, but is it satisfactory?
Is there any point in being just good enough to stay up?

Obviously. The chances of finishing in the top half in 2017-18 and 2019-20 were greatly improved by having been just good enough to stop up the year before. If we had gone down in 2017, we wouldn't have finished 7th and qualified for Europe the year after.

[houseboy]

Excellent summary houseboy, we've lost 1 in 8, and just played Everton off their own pitch, meanwhile Fulham, Newcastle & Southampton can't buy a win, and yet some folks still think we'll be involved in a relegation scrap come May, the only reason we're even discussing this is because we had a sluggish start to the campaign, plus many fans are bored and want to inject an element of suspense towards the end of the long season.

Even being extremely conservative we'll pick up between 7-9 points from our remaining games, and I strongly suspect we'll collect more than that.

Like you my one large regret is our cup exit to Bournemouth, Southampton dispatched them with ease, and on any given day I'd fancy us beating Southampton, especially with the home advantage we'd have enjoyed.

I like having a bit of banter with the relegation fearers but truly I do think that many are just bored and fed up with not being able to attend games. Classic case I suppose of too much time on our hands. Thing some don’t seem to realise is that our recent form is actually BETTER than our average form over the season, which means we are improving not struggling at all. We are on the up unlike the teams around us and even Fulham, who many seem to want to big up, win few games. They don’t lose many but right now they absolutely need wins. Earlier on this thread someone posted a predicted haul of just 5 points for the rest of the season and that was before the 3 points we got away to Everton. That is the kind of thinking we are batting against. We have 9 games left and without getting any better than we have been all season that will give us around 10 points, 43 to finish, and like you I think it will be more.
I think too many have vision blurred by the awful display against WBA but hey, we didn’t lose, and they seem to forget the wonderful displays against Palace and Everton, not to mention 4 points from the Gooners and the robbery at Leeds, the win at Liverpool and the draw with CL hopefuls Leicester. As you say, 1 defeat in 8 with breathing space below us and for some bizarre reason people are mentioning the R word in the same sentence as the Clarets. Makes me smile.

[elwaclaret]

There are a few reasons why Burnley traditionally have set off like a train and then spluttered, whereas now each season in recent years our form has steadily improved as the season progressed. The good seasons are when we get a better but not even good start, otherwise we are about mid table. We wobble a few places here and there but are widely accepted to be the most mentally solid unit in the Premier. It’s why none of the pundits have been interested in discussing us from week one in regards to the bottom.

[ElectroClaret]

I'll be amazed if Fulham get to even 33 points now.

[tiger76]

I'll be amazed if Fulham get to even 33 points now.

So would I TBH they look a deflated team, and their body language wasn't good today, once the 2nd goal went in they literally threw in the towel.

However Fulham will be looking at the next 2 fixtures Burnley & Southampton and thinking if (big if) admittedly they could somehow get 6 points from those games, then they would still have a small glimmer of hope going into the last 2 weeks of the season, but Brighton's win today coupled with our win at Wolves has made their task pretty nigh impossible, and they're giving off the air of a team resigned to the drop now.

[mdd2]

Dont forget WBA whose form has improved of late-we need two teams to be in 19th and 18th place after 38 games wothout us being there
I think WBA will finish above Fulham starting on Monday when they beat Wolves.

[Vegas Claret]

Dont forget WBA whose form has improved of late-we need two teams to be in 19th and 18th place after 38 games wothout us being there
I think WBA will finish above Fulham starting on Monday when they beat Wolves.

I would expect a huge reaction from Wolves after last week

[Longsider]

I would expect a huge reaction from Wolves after last week

My thoughts exactly. Can't see fat Sam's WBA doing the double over the dog heads.

[dsr]

Dont forget WBA whose form has improved of late-we need two teams to be in 19th and 18th place after 38 games wothout us being there
I think WBA will finish above Fulham starting on Monday when they beat Wolves.

West Brom's form has improved only to the extent of getting 13 points from their last 10 games, beating Brighton, Chelsea, Sounthampton. Now they have five games left - Wolves, Arsenal, Liverpool, West Ham, Leeds. Will they win four of those games?

[Spijed]

Dont forget WBA whose form has improved of late-we need two teams to be in 19th and 18th place after 38 games wothout us being there
I think WBA will finish above Fulham starting on Monday when they beat Wolves.

Form has improved of late?

You mean being 3-0 down at half time to Leicester, before dropping two points in the last minute to Villa?

[tiger76]

There's absolutely no way West Brom will get 37 points, they'll be lucky to pass the 30 point mark, all they and Fulham are now playing for is to see who finishes 2nd and 3rd bottom, and that does matter due to the prize money, but neither has a hope in hell of catching anyone else now.