I know it is a similar thread to '3from 5' but we regularly read on here that 35 points should (will be?) enough to escape relegation. Personally I do not see it that way. Looking at the table , and knowing obviously that the relegation candidates have to play each other at least once I seriously doubt if 35 will be anywhere near enough. TC compares previous seasons when 35 has been enough but there is no rule for this. I seem to recall ( without checking, ) that West Ham were once relegated with 43 points. It looks as though 40 might be enough and this means Burnley maintaining a point a game average.

Yep. 35 gets it done...

nope 35 will not be enough

claret59 wrote: ↑

Sun Mar 07, 2021 8:57 pm

I know it is a similar thread to '3from 5' but we regularly read on here that 35 points should (will be?) enough to escape relegation. Personally I do not see it that way. Looking at the table , and knowing obviously that the relegation candidates have to play each other at least once I seriously doubt if 35 will be anywhere near enough. TC compares previous seasons when 35 has been enough but there is no rule for this. I seem to recall ( without checking, ) that West Ham were once relegated with 43 points. It looks as though 40 might be enough and this means Burnley maintaining a point a game average.

Wasn't the West Ham relegation with the 22 team league?

I have a strange feeling we will only get 4 more points out of the remaining games. 4 draws or 3 points off Newcastle and one off dirty Leeds. Will just stay up.

LongSider75 wrote: ↑

Sun Mar 07, 2021 9:10 pm

I have a strange feeling we will only get 4 more points out of the remaining games. 4 draws or 3 points off Newcastle and one off dirty Leeds. Will just stay up.

If we get four more points, we'll be looking forward to a trip to deadwood next season.

A point a game should do it. 38 should be enough but I now would like 40.

Quickenthetempo wrote: ↑

Sun Mar 07, 2021 9:02 pm

Wasn't the West Ham relegation with the 22 team league?

It was the 2002/3 season. It was 38 games and they actually went down with 42 points

No, normally Im of the 32-33 will do it but I think this year with 5 teams being involed so far... it'll be well closer to 40

No 35 won't be enough now, 37-38 might be, so we'll need at least 2 wins and 2 draws from our remaining 10 games, as it happens I suspect we'll manage more than that, but I wouldn't be confident of staying in this league with only 35 points, if anyone did now they'd have to be incredibly fortunate given how the table sits.

I think from a quick look at the remaining fixtures we'll get 9 more points and I think that will be enough to keep us up fairly comfortably.

I think a point a game is always the target but might need to be 39-40 this season

CBT wrote: ↑

Sun Mar 07, 2021 9:27 pm

I think a point a game is always the target but might need to be 39-40 this season

If we aim for a point a game we will fall short.

boatshed bill wrote: ↑

Sun Mar 07, 2021 9:56 pm

If we aim for a point a game we will fall short.

Sorry meant point a game from start of season i.e. 38 points would usually see us safe

boatshed bill wrote: ↑

Sun Mar 07, 2021 9:56 pm

If we aim for a point a game we will fall short.

Sorry meant point a game from start of season i.e. 38 points would usually see us safe

Out if our remaining 10 we have 8 games that we could conceivably get something from other 2 Man Utd and Liverpool I would write off. I can see us getting at least Another 10 points at least our run in does look to be the easiest. The max I can see Fulham getting is probably 10 points they have quite a hard run I think.

If we aim for a point a game you think we will fail? However if we gain a point a game we will stay up with 40 points

We will win at least 3 more games
That will make us safe

Hedontplayforyou wrote: ↑

Sun Mar 07, 2021 10:02 pm

If we aim for a point a game you think we will fail? However if we gain a point a game we will stay up with 40 points

Simply because we should be aiming for 3 points a game, then we may actually achieve the required amount

boatshed bill wrote: ↑

Sun Mar 07, 2021 10:04 pm

Simply because we should be aiming for 3 points a game, then we may actually achieve the required amount

Do you not think we will be aiming for 3 points a game then...

I do and I believe we will win 3, draw 3 and lose 4 of our remaing 10 matches

No.

No, I don’t think it will.

I won’t be happy until we reach at least 38 points, particularly with our goal difference.

No

If 35 points were to be enough assuming it was us that got to 35
t'would mean Newcastle would only get 7 or less points and
either Brighton and/or Fulham get 8 points or less.
I think it's more than likely that at least one, if not 2 of those currently
below us will manage 9, possibly more points.
That's 3 wins or 2 wins and 3 draws. 1 win and 6 draws might not be possible.

So that could mean a minimum of 36 points would be required.
But even then not necessarily enough.

Newcastle have to play us, Brighton, Fulham and Sheff. United
and their chances will probably depend on how well they fare in those games.
Brighton have Newcastle and Sheff. United.
We have Newcastle, Fulham and Sheff. Utd
Fulham have us and Newcastle.

Outcomes in those games will probably determine who is likely to go down.

But I do feel 36 points may not suffice. Possibly one or two more.

DCWat wrote: ↑

Sun Mar 07, 2021 10:10 pm

No, I don’t think it will.

I won’t be happy until we reach at least 38 points, particularly with our goal difference.

We could be in 39 points after our next 3 I expect nearer 34 but it is certainly 3 winnable games.

We need to win some games.
There seems to be a whole lot of back-slapping over 4 draws in 5 games, isn't that including dropping 8 points from 12 at home?

I have us down for 22 more points but I think 5 more will be enough....

We play the following teams

Winnable

Southampton
Fulham
Newcastle
Sheffield United

All games we should get something from

Possibles

Everton
Leeds
West Ham
Wolves

All games we could get something from

Write off

Man Utd
Liverpool

It doesn’t always work out as we expect but If we don’t get 10 points from those games I think we deserve to be relegated!!!!!

boatshed bill wrote: ↑

Sun Mar 07, 2021 10:53 pm

We need to win some games.
There seems to be a whole lot of back-slapping over 4 draws in 5 games, isn't that including dropping 8 points from 12 at home?

We absolutely do need to start winning games, it's fine picking up the odd draw, but if Fulham are winning like they have been draws alone won't be enough to keep us up, we'll probably have to win at least one of our 2 games against Fulham and Newcastle, and probably notch a win elsewhere, that fixture list isn't too demanding on paper, but of course you don't win games on paper.

5 successive home draws mean we've only amassed 5/15 points from those games, and although we got the win at Palace, that's our only PL win in 9, and that stat will have to improve over the rest of the season if we're to survive.

Agree we have to win a few games but our last 7 games have produced 1 win 5 draws and 1 loss.
8 points in total. S if we could manage the same over the next 7 then we'd have 37 points
with 3 games to play.
Still not necessarily out of it but one win away from safety?

jurek wrote: ↑

Sun Mar 07, 2021 10:32 pm

If 35 points were to be enough assuming it was us that got to 35
t'would mean Newcastle would only get 7 or less points and
either Brighton and/or Fulham get 8 points or less.
I think it's more than likely that at least one, if not 2 of those currently
below us will manage 9, possibly more points.
That's 3 wins or 2 wins and 3 draws. 1 win and 6 draws might not be possible.

So that could mean a minimum of 36 points would be required.
But even then not necessarily enough.

Newcastle have to play us, Brighton, Fulham and Sheff. United
and their chances will probably depend on how well they fare in those games.
Brighton have Newcastle and Sheff. United.
We have Newcastle, Fulham and Sheff. Utd
Fulham have us and Newcastle.

Outcomes in those games will probably determine who is likely to go down.

But I do feel 36 points may not suffice. Possibly one or two more.

Only three get relegated. If any one of Newcastle, Brighton and Fulham finish on 34 or less, assuming WBA and Sheff U aren't going to go mad, then 35 would be safe. And unlike some people on the thread, I don't think it is tied on that Newcastle, Fulham and Brighton are all certainties for 9 more points.

If we lose every game, we'll go down. If we win every game, we'll stay up. More likely than not, IMO, 35 will be enough but we will get 40+.

I think you can stop looking at Fulham as the team to get away from, they’ve got a tough run in but can see them doing just enough, but the form of both Brighton & Newcastle means they are bang in danger. Can’t see either picking up many points, certainly Newcastle with their injuries to key attacking players.


35 will do it. We’ll finish on 39. It’s next season that’s the real concern....

To go down:-

Sheffield Utd
WBA
Newcastle

I wouldn't be writing the Liverpool game off, we are more than capable of getting a point.

All I know is there's a long way to go and plenty of points for all the teams down there to play for. Fulham have found their feet and found real form eventually and that's really set the cat among the pigeons. Plus we've to go there yet which is going to be absolutely crucial. I really don't think 35 will be enough this year, but maybe 37 will. I'm actually worried because we are so inconsistent and you never know what you'll get with us. We've played really,really well in certain games, including some we've narrowly lost to so called big teams, but we've also had some absolute stinkers. The way the fixtures are laid out we COULD get nothing at Everton and look in serious danger by the time we play again, putting us under real pressure. I can't help feeling Brighton are a decent side on a bad run and Newcastle will be ok if Saint Maxim is fit. 37 looks a long way off to me right now.
Oh, and as others have said, re those times when teams went down with 40+ points, people have to remember there were more teams in the league then, so it's very mis leading.

No good comparing the fixture run in when the likes of Liverpool and Man Utd are getting beat by teams at the bottom.

We trounced Crystal Palace and then failed to beat any of the teams below us and with 'Home advantage' supposedly on our side.

They are all easy when you win or hard when you don't and there have been more hard one's so far.

JarrowClaret wrote: ↑

Sun Mar 07, 2021 11:09 pm

We play the following teams

Winnable

Southampton
Fulham
Newcastle
Sheffield United

All games we should get something from

Possibles

Everton
Leeds
West Ham
Wolves

All games we could get something from

Write off

Man Utd
Liverpool

It doesn’t always work out as we expect but If we don’t get 10 points from those games I think we deserve to be relegated!!!!!

Why right the Man Utd game off? We have a great record there recently.

Don't think 35 will be sufficient this year. I think it is too close to call. Anyone of Fulham, Brighton, Newcastle or us could go down along with the current bottom 2. I just hope that with Sean's influence we will give the new owners a chance to show what they can bring to a Premier League club.

Dark Cloud wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 08, 2021 8:50 am

All I know is there's a long way to go and plenty of points for all the teams down there to play for. Fulham have found their feet and found real form eventually and that's really set the cat among the pigeons. Plus we've to go there yet which is going to be absolutely crucial. I really don't think 35 will be enough this year, but maybe 37 will.

Even then, Fulham's "real form" has got them 14 points in 12 games. Continue that form for the last 10 and they finish on 37 or 38. Even if they continue their current form, they're still well in the relegation battle.

JarrowClaret wrote: ↑

Sun Mar 07, 2021 11:09 pm

We play the following teams

Winnable

Southampton
Fulham
Newcastle
Sheffield United

All games we should get something from

Possibles

Everton
Leeds
West Ham
Wolves

All games we could get something from

Write off

Man Utd
Liverpool

It doesn’t always work out as we expect but If we don’t get 10 points from those games I think we deserve to be relegated!!!!!

I wouldn't write off the Utd and Liverpool games just yet. I'd say the only team that has the indian side over us is City.

Liverpool out of sorts, and we seem to have some kind of hold over Utd at Old Trafford.

It would be quite delicious if Brighton went down playing their "Barca style" Potterball.

The Fulham away game looks massive, as does Newcastle at home. I said a while ago we would get around 44 points, so I'm sticking to that.

From a marketing perspective, out of the bottom 10 Clubs, we will not be in the top 8 of the nuetrals 'favourite underdog'.

dsr wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 08, 2021 9:24 am

Even then, Fulham's "real form" has got them 14 points in 12 games. Continue that form for the last 10 and they finish on 37 or 38. Even if they continue their current form, they're still well in the relegation battle.

I wasn't suggesting that Fulham aren't well and truly in the battle and will be until the final kick I'd suggest, whichever way it goes, but I was saying that not long ago people were suggesting that they wouldn't get 22 points and that's proved rubbish. They've come from nowhere and given themselves a real fighting chance and by doing so they've dragged Brighton, Newcastle and us (mainly) into a fight we thought probably wouldn't happen. Just when you get a result and start to relax a little, your bum start squeaking again!!!

I think we're looking at about 38 this year.

Easy run in for us but we don't want it to go to the final day against Sheff U.

Everton, Wolves, Leeds and Southampton will be key games. Inconsistent sides who don't have much to play for.

Beating Newcastle or Fulham could be knockout blows but realistically we'll settle for draws.

We might get a point or two from Liverpool and United. Maybe a draw against West Ham as well.

I looked at Burnley, BHA, Newcastle, Fulham and Palace's fixtures a couple of weeks ago (before our Spurs game) and had a go at predicting the outcomes to the end of the season.....dangerous, I know!!! My guess back then was that Fulham and Newcastle would both finish on 35 points with Fulham relegating Newcastle on the final day on goal difference.

After the latest round of matches Palace seem to have escaped (just about). Of the rest I have the 4 who appear to be in 'relegation play' finishing;

Fulham 38
Burnley 38
Newcastle 36
BHA 34

So, before I started on all this, I expected 36 to be needed to stay up. I think it could be 35 now. That being said, I now think the BHA v Newcastle game could be the 'loser gets relegated' game. (I have that down as a draw, by the way).

Liverpool are joint bottom of the form table over six games with Sheffield United. Burnley have not lost at Old Trafford since 2015.

All to play for in every game.

Even 33 points may be enough IF we beat Newcastle at home.

Their fixtures are shocking, they have virtually all of the top teams, then us and Fulham away. Then add to that zero form.

Bad luck may strike us but otherwise - panic not

No way. 37 points imo we need

I think 37/38 will be enough, not sure about 35- that'll be "touch and go". I'd like to think we'll get to 40 which is the traditional safety point - hopefully before that last round of matches comes up (Fulham v Newcastle, Sheff U v Clarets, Arsenal v BHA, Leeds v WBA).

I'll need extra beta-blockers 23rd May if it gets to that.

I think WBA and Sheff Utd might give up the fight soon-the former seem to have already done so. I think however than 18th could hold a relatively high points level as high as 35/36. Its conceivable it might even be close to the record number of points for a relegated side which might have been 41 by WHU ????. At this stage BFC should be focusing on 40 points, bearing in mind we have a relatively poor goal difference. Once the next 5 rounds of fixtures have been played we will have a better idea. Remember some of the key Newcastle injuries should be back after the International break, and they have missed them

LeadBelly wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 08, 2021 10:28 am

I think 37/38 will be enough, not sure about 35- that'll be "touch and go". I'd like to think we'll get to 40 which is the traditional safety point - hopefully before that last round of matches comes up (Fulham v Newcastle, Sheff U v Clarets, Arsenal v BHA, Leeds v WBA).

I'll need extra beta-blockers 23rd May if it gets to that.

Didn't realise that Brighton played Arsenal the last game of the season. If Brighton needed to win to send us down would the Gunners do the dirty on us?

14/15 18th got 35 points (Hull)
15/16 18th got 37 points (Newcastle)
16/17 18th got 34 points (Hull)
17/18 18th got 33 points (Swansea)
18/19 18th got 34 points (Cardiff)
19/20 18th got 34 points (Bournemouth)