The Run In

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huw.Y.WattfromWare
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The Run In

Post by huw.Y.WattfromWare » Sun Mar 14, 2021 3:09 pm

Even though we all know we are safe I felt I had to include us as we are level with Saints.
Many twists to come in this extraordinary season.
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Re: The Run In

Post by claretburns » Sun Mar 14, 2021 3:16 pm

Southampton have Spurs away to come.

It was scheduled for next week but presume that has been moved to a yet announced date due to FA Cup.
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Re: The Run In

Post by expoultryboy » Sun Mar 14, 2021 3:31 pm

Looking at those fixtures , ain't looking good for the geordies .

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Re: The Run In

Post by Spijed » Sun Mar 14, 2021 3:35 pm

expoultryboy wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 3:31 pm
Looking at those fixtures , ain't looking good for the geordies .
However, they are likely to have a few players back - Almiron, Saint-Maximan and Callum Wilson.

All match winners on their day.

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Re: The Run In

Post by jojomk1 » Sun Mar 14, 2021 3:35 pm

Next Fri - Fulham v Leeds
Next Sat - Brighton v Newcastle

Squeaky bum time for all ;)

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Re: The Run In

Post by evensteadiereddie » Sun Mar 14, 2021 3:36 pm

Or Fulham.

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Re: The Run In

Post by Top Claret » Sun Mar 14, 2021 3:38 pm

Looking at fixtures and form it will be a 3 legged race between Fulham, Newcastle and Southampton.

huw.Y.WattfromWare
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Re: The Run In

Post by huw.Y.WattfromWare » Sun Mar 14, 2021 3:59 pm

claretburns wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 3:16 pm
Southampton have Spurs away to come.

It was scheduled for next week but presume that has been moved to a yet announced date due to FA Cup.
Cheers. I’ll make it tbc.

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Re: The Run In

Post by bfcjg » Sun Mar 14, 2021 4:01 pm

I think it will be Fulham who drop.

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Re: The Run In

Post by EricaJacko » Sun Mar 14, 2021 4:03 pm

Top Claret wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 3:38 pm
Looking at fixtures and form it will be a 3 legged race between Fulham, Newcastle and Southampton.
Take another look at Brighton's fixtures. Southampton are 33 the same as us, and almost safe.

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Re: The Run In

Post by huw.Y.WattfromWare » Sun Mar 14, 2021 4:04 pm

Spijed wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 3:35 pm
However, they are likely to have a few players back - Almiron, Saint-Maximan and Callum Wilson.

All match winners on their day.
That’s fine if they all come back firing. Some players take a few games to get up to speed.

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Re: The Run In

Post by claptrappers_union » Sun Mar 14, 2021 4:06 pm

I know there’s no easy fixture at this level, but that Newcastle run-in, yikes

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Re: The Run In

Post by burnleysteve » Sun Mar 14, 2021 4:18 pm

last day should be interesting fulham v newcastle

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Re: The Run In

Post by burnleysteve » Sun Mar 14, 2021 4:18 pm

last day should be interesting fulham v newcastle

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Re: The Run In

Post by Spijed » Sun Mar 14, 2021 4:27 pm

bfcjg wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 4:01 pm
I think it will be Fulham who drop.
If they lose to Leeds I suspect that will be the case. Newcastle under Bruce seem to know how to grind out results, whereas Fulham give the impression they only know how to play one way.

It was telling the way they conceded against us. Instead of trying to protect the lead for a few minutes their defence had completely disappeared.

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Re: The Run In

Post by mdd2 » Sun Mar 14, 2021 4:29 pm

This year The Saints have won two drawn one and lost the rest. There are a few seasons where a team ostensibly safe go on a shocking run and get sucked into a relegation battle. Could be them this season.Hope their form doesn't start to pick up when we play them.

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Re: The Run In

Post by Dark Cloud » Sun Mar 14, 2021 4:31 pm

We're definitely not out of it and very time we produce a brilliant result like yesterday a number of the others produce something too. (Like Fulham getting the win at Anfield last week) which keeps the pressure up and keeps us looking over our shoulder. Every team there has (on paper) some easier fixtures and (on paper) some real toughies, including us, but as we know there really isn't any such thing, especially this season with teams quite capable of ripping up the form book and getting totally unexpected results. Fulham have come to at a good time for them, but I still think they're the most likely to drop. We have to make sure we keep doing what we've been doing for several weeks now and make it count in the games that ultimately will really matter to us. Saints away, Fulham away and Newcastle home as they will determine our future. (Hopefully Sheff U away will be irrelevant!) I really enjoyed yesterday, but now the dust has settled it's clear the finishing line is still some way off!

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Re: The Run In

Post by huw.Y.WattfromWare » Sun Mar 14, 2021 4:34 pm

After our last 3 performances what a dreadful time to have 3 weeks off.
Ings will likely be back for our game and you know he’ll score, so we need two.

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Re: The Run In

Post by Spijed » Sun Mar 14, 2021 4:55 pm

Dark Cloud wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 4:31 pm
but now the dust has settled it's clear the finishing line is still some way off!
How many points do you think we need?

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Re: The Run In

Post by Dark Cloud » Sun Mar 14, 2021 5:22 pm

Spijed wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 4:55 pm
How many points do you think we need?
It's like gazing into a crystal ball as nobody really knows the answer and looking at it historically really doesn't mean things will happen in the same way. The traditional target of 40 will mean certain survival I'd say (especially if we get a decent number of those points from our games with Saints, Newcastle and Fulham) but I'd like to think 38 will be sufficient. If we'd beaten Fulham and WBA at home as expected we'd be dipping for the finishing tape by now!

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Re: The Run In

Post by Rileybobs » Sun Mar 14, 2021 5:25 pm

Dark Cloud wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 5:22 pm
It's like gazing into a crystal ball as nobody really knows the answer and looking at it historically really doesn't mean things will happen in the same way. The traditional target of 40 will mean certain survival I'd say (especially if we get a decent number of those points from our games with Saints, Newcastle and Fulham) but I'd like to think 38 will be sufficient. If we'd beaten Fulham and WBA at home as expected we'd be dipping for the finishing tape by now!
Realistically we’re no longer in a the relegation fight. Time to start looking up the table.

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Re: The Run In

Post by Dark Cloud » Sun Mar 14, 2021 5:34 pm

Rileybobs wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 5:25 pm
Realistically we’re no longer in a the relegation fight. Time to start looking up the table.
I disagree. A GLANCE at the table is deceptive, but a longer look shows we're still not safe by any means. We need to stay free of injuries to key players and produce the level of performances we have for the past 3 games and I definitely agree we'll be fine, but as I said above, the finishing line is still some way off and we'll need to make sure we don't chuck in stinkers like we did against WBA in the games against those around us. I'd still sooner be us than anyone else down there, but that doesn't mean I'm sleeping properly (Yet!!)
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huw.Y.WattfromWare
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Re: The Run In

Post by huw.Y.WattfromWare » Sun Mar 14, 2021 5:38 pm

Dark Cloud wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 5:22 pm

If we'd beaten Fulham and WBA at home as expected we'd be dipping for the finishing tape by now!
If we’d played Fulham when we should have and had a weeks rest before the Baggies we’d have won them both. Fulham’s covid issues screwing us twice.
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Re: The Run In

Post by Rileybobs » Sun Mar 14, 2021 5:40 pm

Dark Cloud wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 5:34 pm
I disagree. A GLANCE at the table is deceptive, but a longer look shows we're still not safe by any means. We need to stay free of injuries to key players and produce the level of performances we have for the past 3 games and I definitely agree we'll be fine, but as I said above, the finishing line is still some way off and we'll need to make sure we don't chuck in stinkers like we did against WBA in the games against those around us. I'd still sooner be us than anyone else down there, but that doesn't mean I'm sleeping properly (Yet!!)
I didn’t say that we’re safe now, just like Man City were not safe after 5 games. The chance of us not picking up enough points in the next 9 games to avoid the drop is minimal, hence my claim that realistically we are not in a relegation battle. The bookies have us at a best price of 16/1 to be relegated which suggests I’m right.

For context, we’re closer to 10th position than 18th and have a very reasonable run in.

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Re: The Run In

Post by Jakubclaret » Sun Mar 14, 2021 5:54 pm

Rileybobs wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 5:40 pm
I didn’t say that we’re safe now, just like Man City were not safe after 5 games. The chance of us not picking up enough points in the next 9 games to avoid the drop is minimal, hence my claim that realistically we are not in a relegation battle. The bookies have us at a best price of 16/1 to be relegated which suggests I’m right.

For context, we’re closer to 10th position than 18th and have a very reasonable run in.
You said realistically we aren’t in a relegation battle but that’s not strictly true because we aren’t mathematically safe, we are unlikely to go down which reflects the bookies odds but we are still looking over our shoulders & still involved in a relegation battle on the fringes, are you boldly suggesting we will stop caring if Brighton & Fulham start collecting points.

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Re: The Run In

Post by Rileybobs » Sun Mar 14, 2021 5:56 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 5:54 pm
You said realistically we aren’t in a relegation battle but that’s not strictly true because we aren’t mathematically safe, we are unlikely to go down which reflects the bookies odds but we are still looking over our shoulders & still involved in a relegation battle on the fringes, are you boldly suggesting we will stop caring if Brighton & Fulham start collecting points.
Unlikely = not realistically.

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Re: The Run In

Post by Jakubclaret » Sun Mar 14, 2021 5:58 pm

Rileybobs wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 5:56 pm
Unlikely = not realistically.
Well if you say that from the outset without suddenly changing tact when challenged wouldn’t be any confusion :roll:

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Re: The Run In

Post by Rileybobs » Sun Mar 14, 2021 6:00 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 5:58 pm
Well if you say that from the outset without suddenly changing tact when challenged wouldn’t be any confusion :roll:
’Realistically we’re no longer in a the relegation fight.’

...what I said at the outset.

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Re: The Run In

Post by Jakubclaret » Sun Mar 14, 2021 6:02 pm

Rileybobs wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 6:00 pm
’Realistically we’re no longer in a the relegation fight.’

...what I said at the outset.
Realistically we could still be relegated albeit unlikely, for me there a distinct difference between the 2 definitions.

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Re: The Run In

Post by Rileybobs » Sun Mar 14, 2021 6:05 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 6:02 pm
Realistically we could still be relegated albeit unlikely, for me there a distinct difference between the 2 definitions.
To be honest Jakub, you having a contrary view to mine only serves to make me more certain that I’m right.

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Re: The Run In

Post by Jakubclaret » Sun Mar 14, 2021 6:06 pm

Rileybobs wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 6:05 pm
To be honest Jakub, you having a contrary view to mine only serves to make me more certain that I’m right.
When are you ever wrong? I give up you are right as always, goodnight :D

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Re: The Run In

Post by Rileybobs » Sun Mar 14, 2021 6:07 pm

Jakubclaret wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 6:06 pm
When are you ever wrong? I give up you are right as always, goodnight :D
Finally you post something that I agree with. ;)
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Re: The Run In

Post by Devils_Advocate » Sun Mar 14, 2021 6:09 pm

Still on a knife-edge

14 Brighton 10 pts - 39 pts
15 Southampton 6 pts - 39 pts
16 Burnley 5 pts - 38 pts
17 Fulham 11 pts - 37 pts
18 Newcastle 9 pts - 37 pts

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Re: The Run In

Post by matttheclaret » Sun Mar 14, 2021 6:15 pm

Devils_Advocate wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 6:09 pm
Still on a knife-edge

14 Brighton 10 pts - 39 pts
15 Southampton 6 pts - 39 pts
16 Burnley 5 pts - 38 pts
17 Fulham 11 pts - 37 pts
18 Newcastle 9 pts - 37 pts
Seems pretty pessimistic. We've just got five points from Leicester, Arsenal and Everton. Seems pretty likely (but not a certainty) the next nine games will bring more than just five more.

I bet you'd also get good odds on us getting the fewest points between now and the end of the season out of those five teams.
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Re: The Run In

Post by Culmclaret » Sun Mar 14, 2021 6:19 pm

We are not going down. We’ve got points in the bag and there is nothing in our run of form to suggest we won’t comfortably pass the 40 point mark. We have a good defence, a brilliant keeper, 4 serviceable strikers, a wonderful young midfielder and great team spirit. I am looking forward to that run in.

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Re: The Run In

Post by leelad » Sun Mar 14, 2021 6:58 pm

One game at a time. But first of all, let's savour the result against Everton. If Burnley play anywhere near the level & standard of football they played against Everton, I have confidence that they will pick up a few more points before the end of the season. Hopefully Dyche will give the team a good break over the next three weeks which gives our remaining injured players some time to get back to fitness and also refreshes the squad.

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Re: The Run In

Post by dougcollins » Sun Mar 14, 2021 8:01 pm

It's absolutely nailed on Sheff Utd will beat us in the final game.

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Re: The Run In

Post by tiger76 » Sun Mar 14, 2021 8:11 pm

dougcollins wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 8:01 pm
It's absolutely nailed on Sheff Utd will beat us in the final game.
They might but who cares we'll already be on the beach by then. :)

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Re: The Run In

Post by huw.Y.WattfromWare » Sun Mar 21, 2021 3:43 pm

After this weekend.
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Re: The Run In

Post by evensteadiereddie » Sun Mar 21, 2021 4:13 pm

We should be home and dry with at least four games left.

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Re: The Run In

Post by elwaclaret » Sun Mar 21, 2021 4:13 pm

I think the defeats this weekend mean it would take a blow out of epic proportions for us to be caught by Fulham, I think we can now look fairly comfortably down with dispassionate interest and look up for the extra money we get for our final position.
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Re: The Run In

Post by CrosspoolClarets » Sun Mar 21, 2021 5:22 pm

We should avoid the temptation to look at those fixtures and see wins for our rivals everywhere. Crunch matches tend to end in draws, and matches against big teams tend to end in defeat at this stage. So I still feel as I did a week or two ago that 33 may well be enough, and 36 certainly will be. I suspect Newcastle will drop on about 32 points.

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Re: The Run In

Post by huw.Y.WattfromWare » Sun Mar 21, 2021 6:38 pm

Newcastle could easily lose every game until the last two. Win them both and stay up on 34pts.

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Re: The Run In

Post by tiger76 » Sun Mar 21, 2021 7:49 pm

It's heading for a Final day Fulham-Newcastle shoot out, it's tough to see anyone else being dragged in now, not impossible but unlikely.

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Re: The Run In

Post by bobinho » Sun Mar 21, 2021 8:15 pm

All very interesting, and I see us getting 11 from what’s remaining. Some will see more, some less.

I personally believe both us and saints are out of it.

It would take a catastrophe for us to be anywhere near relegation. Not absolutely mathematically impossible I’ll grant you, but a catastrophic downturn in form and performances that I don’t believe we are capable of.

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Re: The Run In

Post by jurek » Sun Mar 21, 2021 8:46 pm

If we lose out next two games then we're right back in it
even more so if Fulham manage to pick up some points in their next two.
Especially with Man U, Wolves and West Ham to follow.

Is that likely to happen?
Wouldn't wish to bet big money on it.

But then if we did lose our next two we're just as likely to get something
at Old Trafford or against Wolves and West Ham.

it's been that sort of season.

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Re: The Run In

Post by Wile E Coyote » Sun Mar 21, 2021 10:32 pm

things not looking good for the geordies with that run in.

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Re: The Run In

Post by tiger76 » Sun Mar 21, 2021 10:44 pm

We'll pick points up in the Southampton and Newcastle games, can peeps have some confidence in the manager and the squad for once.

And without even kicking a ball this weekend we've taken a large step to safety due to Fulham and Newcastle both losing.

Yes in theory we can still be sucked into trouble, but it won't happen.

Worst case scenario we'll pick up 6/7 points from the 27 available, and there's no way Fulham and Newcastle will match 39/40 come the end of the season, let alone beat it, and for those who still fear the worst remember they meet on the final day, so they can't both claim 3 points should they need to.

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Re: The Run In

Post by BurnleyFC » Sun Mar 21, 2021 11:11 pm

For me, it’s either Fulham or Brighton who’ll drop.

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Re: The Run In

Post by houseboy » Mon Mar 22, 2021 9:35 am

EricaJacko wrote:
Sun Mar 14, 2021 4:03 pm
Take another look at Brighton's fixtures. Southampton are 33 the same as us, and almost safe.
But unlike us Southampton are in dire form. Haven’t looked but are they currently bottom of the form table? Currently doesn’t appear to be a worse team in the PL. Brighton will be fine I think, it’s just that some on here have this great desire for them to go down. The bottom three are going I think, definitely the bottom two.

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