Yes
Yes they do
Feel free to provide the facts
Yes
You seem to be arguing against yourself. The risk of unforeseen circumstances is why you don't want leveraged buyouts not a j.ustification for why they can go wrong. That is the point of why people are concerned.GodIsADeeJay81 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:56 amPotentially it hasn't helped though, because the club has had to put money aside to pay for the rebate instead of spending on players etc.
It's all linked together.
I never said you know the square root of naff all? you know the debt exists like I do and you're more than capable of fag packet maths and coming up with a number.GodIsADeeJay81 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:58 amNo, I'm asking you for the full facts.
What you're doing now is giving partial facts because that's all you've got and you're desperately clinging onto it.
If you're going to call me out and claim I know the square root of naff all about what's going on I expect you to have the full information to hand.
You haven't got anything, unsurprisingly, so here's an idea, stop trying to call me out with your sly little digs at me, you're nowhere near clued up enough to take me on.
GeniusKRBFC wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 12:05 pmI never said you know the square root of naff all? you know the debt exists like I do and you're more than capable of fag packet maths and coming up with a number.
You want to argue over the exact total, penny for penny, so I won't attempt to provide that figure to give you the satisfaction of further squabbling over something relatively insignificant.
Fans are worried by the fact debt is there, the stories coming out aren't good, half of our squad will need replacing in 6 months, we're bottom of the league and have yet to replace our main striker. Squabbling with me about an exact figure adds absolutely nothing to this topic but bore everyone to death.
Why are you quoting me, begging for my attention
Don’t kid yourself that Charlatan Mike wasn’t always going to cash in and sell us down the river.dandeclaret wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 9:14 amA painful lesson for the sizable, vocal group who were ungrateful for what they had when the club was well run.
Because you are someone who has a track record of talking utter s**te. Thats your MO mate, not mine!KRBFC wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 12:12 pmWhy are you quoting me, begging for my attention
There's plenty of other worried fans on here, why did you single me out?
I said nothing controversial and nothing worth responding to
I know your game, you want me to provide an estimate so you can continue to argue penny for penny, tit for tat.
So we've established you have nothing beyond a debt existing, which I agree with.KRBFC wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 12:05 pmI never said you know the square root of naff all? you know the debt exists like I do and you're more than capable of fag packet maths and coming up with a number.
You want to argue over the exact total, penny for penny, so I won't attempt to provide that figure to give you the satisfaction of further squabbling over something relatively insignificant.
Fans are worried by the fact debt is there, the stories coming out aren't good, half of our squad will need replacing in 6 months, we're bottom of the league and have yet to replace our main striker. Squabbling with me about an exact figure adds absolutely nothing to this topic but bore everyone to death.
Principle of this point is spot on but the trouble is there are a quite few posters who have good knowledge about finances but start with a predetermined ideological view and then use their expertise to support their view regardless of the wider facts.Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 12:10 pmThere are people on here who clearly know about finances and back it up, and there are people on here who don't have a clue, so only really watch these threads until someone comes on who knows what they are talking about, and there are those who are experts in their own mind and want to tell everybody else about their, er, "unique" expertise.
Its very frustrating when you want to read actual facts, or opinions from actual experts
DefoDevils_Advocate wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 12:22 pmPrinciple of this point is spot on but the trouble is there are a quite few posters who have good knowledge about finances but start with a predetermined ideological view and then use their expertise to support their view regardless of the wider facts.
Paul Waine is the perfect example of this and on the other side of the discussion you have someone like DSR. Both these are able to talk well around finances but I would never rely on anything they say on this as on this subject I think they are somewhat disingenuous
My opinions on this have been very much aligned with DSR but it doesnt stop the fact that when he talks about it he conveniently ignores certain things and focuses and goes over the top on other things in order to best support is view (rather than maybe adapt some of his thinking).Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 12:27 pmDefo
I disagree with DSR on absolutely everything but we were both in full agreement about the direction of the club under Garlick (ie it was safe and boring)
He's a lot more negative than me about it now, and there is no doubt that the leveraged buy out is less than ideal
I was thinking of other posters though tbf and one (at least) doesn't post anymore
I said nothing of note on here worthy of a response, I never claimed to be any expert, I have no inside scoop, I rely on others to provide me with facts when it comes to football finance.Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 12:18 pmBecause you are someone who has a track record of talking utter s**te. Thats your MO mate, not mine!
I worry about the debt but I also counter balance that with the actual evidence of what has been done, and I refuse to panic or get more than slightly worried until I see where we are in terms of signings on Feb 1st.
For example, in todays newspapers, you have the Sun report (which Alan Nixon very quickly distanced himself from) and the Express report on us putting in a bid for Azmoun of St Petersburg.
Both could be true, both might not be true, but if we were in as much c**p as the Sun tried to imply, then there would be a lot more, and crucially, not just rehashing stuff we already know
Argh, where to start?jedi_master wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 12:42 pmLancaster,
You say you’ll judge the clubs status/financial well-being on our transfer activity this window. Whilst I understand the sentiment, do you not feel that is largely irrelevant to the long-term concerns within the article?
Trying to sign players to desperately hope we stay up so that the potential (POTENTIAL - Note I say that, until it happens or doesn’t, it’s hearsay but the noises continue to get louder from both the press and amongst the fanbase) financial Armageddon doesn’t arrive is just that - desperate. I don’t see it as anything other than a last gasp effort to avoid the relegation. It certainly wouldn’t make me comfortable about our clubs financial position if we spend (example) £40m in the next week on three players. In fact, it would worry me more. I’d far rather see loans with options to buy if we stay up - though I appreciate they’re difficult deals to do.
You’re absolutely right to say the facts aren’t there r.e debt level, for that all anyone can do is speculate. I’m not a finance guy, not my area of business, so nothing I put is anything other than my opinion based on what I hear and read. The ‘facts’ as I understand them (or what I deem them to be, is perhaps better to say) are:
- The MSD loan is noted to be £60m (we do not know the interest rate, the repayment schedule or where we are in repayment on this)
- A large sum is still owed to our former owners (no point guessing here, but The Sun article today said £102m outstanding to them. I doubt this and also you’d hope these shareholders have the club at heart and wouldn’t be in a rush to claw this back)
- We have 10 players out of contract this summer, some of which we will happily wave bye to, some will be massive losses.
- The remaining squad is largely comprised of aging players lacking any value to sell on - and on high wages (exceptions being McNeil, Pope, Taylor, Cornet, Brownhill, Roberts and Collins).
Taking all of this on board, my personal concern is how we expect to repay that MSD loan (and other debts) any other way than selling our saleable assets as well as using our parachute money. My concern then would be how do we build a new squad to replace those players sold as well as the 10 leaving when our money has already been spent?
Again - I confess - MASS conjecture in my post, and the repayment schedule from MSD could assuage my fears if we knew it, but we don’t. When I see what’s happening at Derby County who also have a loan with MSD, and then we get repeat articles and local hearsay buzzing around the club it worries people. I think that’s a reasonable stance to have right now.
Nobody knows what the future holds, we all want to stay up and are all thinking with the clubs best interests at heart. Apologies for the feature length post - and I’m not here to argue with anyone, it’s just my personal opinion on the ‘situation’ as it stands.
2nd time you've said I'm begging for your attention
Oh no doubtDevils_Advocate wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 12:42 pmMy opinions on this have been very much aligned with DSR but it doesnt stop the fact that when he talks about it he conveniently ignores certain things and focuses and goes over the top on other things in order to best support is view (rather than maybe adapt some of his thinking).
There are a good few posters with good knowledge and who you can see are taking there position on the facts and are open to changing their opinion as circumstances changed and new info comes out
GodIsADeeJay81 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 11:51 amMatchday revenue was slashed.
Due to the number of televised games bring reduced there were/are rebates to be paid.
Both attributable to Covid and both have caused an issue with the club's income.
Blimey Lancaster VH Holdings is a 1.5 billion dollar company - this is ALKs web site https://alkcapital.com/Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 1:02 pmArgh, where to start?
No one is saying that the leveraged buy out is anything but worrying, but Pace isn't the Venkys, he must have known that relegation was a possibility every season, and he must have factored that into his calculations (he might not have, but nothing suggests he hasn't)
Agree but I’ll miss you when you are goneLancasterclaret wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 1:07 pmOh no doubt
More of posters who know what they are talking about, much less of those that don't!
And?ClaretPete001 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 1:08 pmBlimey Lancaster VH Holdings is a 1.5 billion dollar company - this is ALKs web site https://alkcapital.com/
He has factored the risk of relegation into his calculations. He's put none of his own money into the club, risked nothing, and can walk away with no consequences.Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 1:02 pmNo one is saying that the leveraged buy out is anything but worrying, but Pace isn't the Venkys, he must have known that relegation was a possibility every season, and he must have factored that into his calculations (he might not have, but nothing suggests he hasn't)
Think everyone feels the same. I haven’t seen Burnley win at home (live) since 2020.Ric_C wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 1:03 pmDon't know about anyone else, but I'm pretty depressed about Burnley at the moment. I've seen us win once in the flesh coming up to 2 years in February (I'm a season ticket holder). All news about the club seems to be negative. The only bright spark has been Cornet, but of course he's been injured and unavailable. I'm just desperate for a glimmer of hope, either with a couple of wins and a couple of decent signings, it's not much to ask is it?
Then we are in the championship under Garlick I presume? (not too sure about that bit)daveisaclaret wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 1:16 pmHe has factored the risk of relegation into his calculations. He's put none of his own money into the club, risked nothing, and can walk away with no consequences.
How do you know he's put none of his own money in? In fact, I'd probably bet he's put a significant chunk of his own net wealth into this project. ALK is his company, it's believed they put in 15m, it's run by him and one or two others. It's normal with private equity that they use their own funds initially.daveisaclaret wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 1:16 pmHe has factored the risk of relegation into his calculations. He's put none of his own money into the club, risked nothing, and can walk away with no consequences.
Everyone does feel the same sadlyjedi_master wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 1:17 pmThink everyone feels the same. I haven’t seen Burnley win at home (live) since 2020.
People can talk about figures & what’s happened previously arriving where we are today I think it’s more helpful & constructive to talk about the future & here & now without dwelling negatively, the club is well & truly in the crap & that’s undeniable, far too many people in my view are sticking their heads in the sand & hoping the problems will disappear or trivialising the state of affairs without fully understanding the severity.jedi_master wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 9:16 amAbsolutely.
The warning signs were there that evening when we first got wind of the purchase being completed and that massive loan being immediately put on us. As a fan, you always want whats happening at your club to be for the best and we were all frustrated with Garlick and ready for a change. We all had to be optimistic.
Looking back though with hindsight, it always seemed not quite right. Little things like Alan Pace's LinkedIn profile, ALK's substandard website, the AI Scout app having about a thousand downloads yet being talked up to high heaven. Everything had a massive air of 'amateur' about it from the get-go if we are being absolutely honest with ourselves.
Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 1:19 pmThen we are in the championship under Garlick I presume? (not too sure about that bit)
I'm pretty sure if we get relegated it won't be because of the ALK takeover
It will because of a combination of stuff, the chief one being the lack of investment in the playing squad over numerous transfer windows
Oh, its not good dave, I'm 100% not saying its gooddaveisaclaret wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 1:21 pmI think so yes LC. I don't think either being in the championship or being owned by Garlick again are inherently a bad thing (depending on the Dyche-Garlick relationship which was clearly bad but that isn't set in stone), and I agree the relegation won't be due to the takeover. The bad thing is the club will have the debt to MSD with absolutely nothing to show for it.
Where did I pretend to know stuff? I stated the simple fact, there is debt owed to MSD and Garlick. You can pretend that's crap but it's really not, it's reality.Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 1:05 pm2nd time you've said I'm begging for your attention
I'll just spell it out for you
When posters talk crap and pretend they know stuff they don't, I tend to react and post that they are talking crap and pretending to know stuff they don't
I wish it was just you mate I really do!
The chief one being an unwillingness to dive into the overspend debt model of the premier league? Where clubs chase to compete with the wealth of whole countries?Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 1:19 pmThen we are in the championship under Garlick I presume? (not too sure about that bit)
I'm pretty sure if we get relegated it won't be because of the ALK takeover
It will because of a combination of stuff, the chief one being the lack of investment in the playing squad over numerous transfer windows
Will relegation to the Championship (a fairly likely scenario at this stage) be anything but a financial disaster for the club?Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 1:28 pmI'm not going to say "Exciting times" or anything like that, but I'm also fairly confident that we aren't in as bad a position as some of the posters seem determined to put us into
To be fair folks, he has got a point. Of all the posters on this board I think he is the one who gets the most grief, most times unwarranted.
Yes I feel that’s very fair. Everyone respected Garlick’s prudent management, however it needed to return to what it had been in the 15-18 era (I.e, Keane out/Tarky in, Gray out/Wood in) where we had a clear succession plan in place, but I don’t think anyone expected anything beyond that. The only issue with Garlick for myself was the situation with Dyche which seemed destined to end with one of them leaving.Bordeauxclaret wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 1:38 pmLet’s not rewrite history and pretend everyone was demanding we spend ridiculous amounts of money under Garlick.
There was a huge middle ground between taking that approach and the approach we actually did that the vast majority were in.
Hold your horses there Dan, no one was more supportive of Garlick and his model on here than medandeclaret wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 1:32 pmThe chief one being an unwillingness to dive into the overspend debt model of the premier league? Where clubs chase to compete with the wealth of whole countries?
It will be a financial disaster whenever it happens JohnJohnMcGreal wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 1:37 pmWill relegation to the Championship (a fairly likely scenario at this stage) be anything but a financial disaster for the club?
It’s all too easy to become a target when extreme opinions are at play & find yourself easily overwhelmed & outnumbered, some people fully understand what’s going on, some people kind of understand what’s going on & some people don’t have a clue but pretend to, whilst people continue to ignore what’s happening in front of their eyes sadly more & more people will continue to disagree.
I know but you seem to be arguing against your own point. Let's put aside the idea that the Venky's are fools VH Holdings is a massive well established company with deep pockets and a successful track record of running business across South Asia. However, they stepped outside of their geographical location and business model and it has required those deep pockets to keep things afloat.Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 1:12 pmAnd?
Venkys famously didn't realise you could get relegated when they took over (to all accounts)
They are doing an excellent job these days with Rovers, but its costing them a small fortune, and fair play to them for not pulling out when they could have and completely finishing them
My point is that Pace must have known the relegation consequences, and I'm 100% sure that he and Garlick must have talked about it during the protracted selling process
I think Garlick saw some poor recruitment and lost full trust in Dyche to spend, wasn't long after CT was claiming Garlick was trying to sign Harry Wilson and Dyche didn't want him. I don't know the exact figures but I'd guess Gibson, Vydra and Hart cost the club a pretty penny and we got barely any return out of them.jedi_master wrote: ↑Fri Jan 21, 2022 1:44 pmYes I feel that’s very fair. Everyone respected Garlick’s prudent management, however it needed to return to what it had been in the 15-18 era (I.e, Keane out/Tarky in, Gray out/Wood in) where we had a clear succession plan in place, but I don’t think anyone expected anything beyond that. The only issue with Garlick for myself was the situation with Dyche which seemed destined to end with one of them leaving.