Some reasons to be cheerful. Son told me an interesting stat this morning.

Anyone know how many games we’ve lost with Cornet in the starting line up? And which ones they were?

NewClaret wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 01, 2022 8:49 am

Some reasons to be cheerful. Son told me an interesting stat this morning.

Anyone know how many games we’ve lost with Cornet in the starting line up? And which ones they were?

City away and Newcastle away (but was subbed off at 30 min)

If he stays fit all season and Weghorst proves to be a reliable goalscorer - we have a chance. Nobody can dispute that (they will try to, though).

Leeds Utd away ?

RVclaret wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 01, 2022 8:50 am

City away and Newcastle away (but was subbed off at 30 min)

Yep. I was quite staggered by that.

Given both we’re away, one was City & the other he only played 30 minutes, I think that gives us some real hope if he stays fit.

Claretsi wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 01, 2022 8:55 am

Leeds Utd away ?

Came on at HT.

NewClaret wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 01, 2022 8:56 am

Yep. I was quite staggered by that.

Given both we’re away, one was City & the other he only played 30 minutes, I think that gives us some real hope if he stays fit.

http://www.uptheclarets.com/messageboar ... f#p1729310

Here is a thread I posted after the Arsenal game which shows the stark contrast in stats between having him starting v not.

Missed that thread, sorry RV. Staggering.

Reposting the stats if you don’t mind.

With Cornet v Without Cornet

Starts: 7 v 10
Goals: 12 v 4
Points: 8 v 3
Goals per Game: 1.7 v 0.4
Points per Game: 1.1 v 0.3

If we can keep him fit and in that form we stand a chance.

NewClaret wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:04 am

Missed that thread, sorry RV. Staggering.

Reposting the stats if you don’t mind.

With Cornet v Without Cornet

Starts: 7 v 10
Goals: 12 v 4
Points: 8 v 3
Goals per Game: 1.7 v 0.4
Points per Game: 1.1 v 0.3

If we can keep him fit and in that form we stand a chance.

Completely agree. Plus if Weghorst adds more to our overall play, which I think he will based on what I've seen and read, it could well improve those stats further.

RVclaret wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:09 am

Completely agree. Plus if Weghorst adds more to our overall play, which I think he will based on what I've seen and read, it could well improve those stats further.

Even if it sustains that 1.7pts per game average, takes us to 46 pts.

NewClaret wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:31 am

Even if it sustains that 1.7pts per game average, takes us to 46 pts.

That’s goals per game at 1.7, pts per game is 1.1, which as I commented would take us to 33.

RVclaret wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:40 am

That’s goals per game at 1.7, pts per game is 1.1, which as I commented would take us to 33.

Ah you’re right, sorry.

Need the Wout to do the business then!!!!

RVclaret wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:09 am

Completely agree. Plus if Weghorst adds more to our overall play, which I think he will based on what I've seen and read, it could well improve those stats further.

You did a very good analysis on this and that's why I don't think our season is a lost cause if Cornet stays fit.

If we could beat Watford then it very much is all to play for.

RVclaret wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:40 am

That’s goals per game at 1.7, pts per game is 1.1, which as I commented would take us to 33.

Indeed we need about 1.3 points per game. When we came 7th we achieved just under 1.45, which gives a measure of the size of the task ahead to achieve 38 points.

35/36 points should be enough.

Watford H - 3
Man Utd H - 1
Liverpool H - 0
Brighton A - 1
Palace A - 1
Chelsea H - 0
Brentford A - 1
Southampton H - 3
City H - 0
Norwich A - 3
West Ham A - 1
Wolves H - 3
Watford A - 3
Villa H - 3
Spurs A - 0
Newcastle H - 3

There you go, I have us getting 26 points from now till the end of the season giving us 38. That's before even looking at the other Covid postponement games that have not got new dates yet.

Does that really look unrealistic?

We have a bloody chance.

jedi_master wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 01, 2022 10:03 am

Watford H - 3
Man Utd H - 1
Liverpool H - 0
Brighton A - 1
Palace A - 1
Chelsea H - 0
Brentford A - 1
Southampton H - 3
City H - 0
Norwich A - 3
West Ham A - 1
Wolves H - 3
Watford A - 3
Villa H - 3
Spurs A - 0
Newcastle H - 3

There you go, I have us getting 26 points from now till the end of the season giving us 38. That's before even looking at the other Covid postponement games that have not got new dates yet.

Does that really look unrealistic?

We have a bloody chance.

I'm beginning to hate being cast in the role of miserabilist but ho hum.

Of course it doesn't look reasonable - it looks ridiculous.

It would mean transforming the team from one that has won one game to one that plays as well as at any time in the Premiership when we came 7th or 10th after losing a double digit Premiership striker to be replace with an unknown from the Bundesliga.

Of course, it may happen stranger things happen at sea but at this point it's not reasonable to suggest it will.

I'm very hopefully because I can sustain the kind of irrationality that probably helped human beings survive the ice age.

ClaretPete001 wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 01, 2022 10:20 am

I'm beginning to hate being cast in the role of miserabilist but ho hum.

Of course it doesn't look reasonable - it looks ridiculous.

It would mean transforming the team from one that has won one game to one that plays as well as at any time in the Premiership when we came 7th or 10th after losing a double digit Premiership striker to be replace with an unknown from the Bundesliga.

Of course, it may happen stranger things happen at sea but at this point it's not reasonable to suggest it will.

I'm very hopefully because I can sustain the kind of irrationality that probably helped human beings survive the ice age.

You can think it looks ridiculous, and that’s not miserablist it, it’s probably realistic.

I think our remaining fixtures are far ‘easier’ than the ones we have have suffered so far. I also think the Arsenal game showed a different mentality. Cornet now back and Wood (regardless of his historic record) replaced with someone seemingly more mobile is also cause for some optimism.

jedi_master wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 01, 2022 10:29 am

You can think it looks ridiculous, and that’s not miserablist it, it’s probably realistic.

I think our remaining fixtures are far ‘easier’ than the ones we have have suffered so far. I also think the Arsenal game showed a different mentality. Cornet now back and Wood (regardless of his historic record) replaced with someone seemingly more mobile is also cause for some optimism.

We are not done yet I agree - let's hope for the best....!

Better hope we can keep Cornet fit then, and the big chap can also bang a few in.

We have been in every game this season, what's been lacking is the killer touch in front of goal, and if we can remedy that then we've got hope of turning the draws into victories.

Defence has generally been fairly solid recently, so if they can maintain that form, and we can nick goals then we do have a chance.

Need to beat Watford though otherwise we'll be leaving ourselves an awful lot of ground to make up even with the games in hand.

To have any hope , and assuming we can beat Watford, we need to keep the first XI fit. Any injury to key players, especially Cornet, Weghorst (assuming he's decent !) and McNeil and we just don't have any depth at all to be able to cope. The major concern, assuming no injuries, is the lack of any midfield creativity .....I think we are going down in truth but will stick with the hope that kills you !

I feel performances in the 1st half of the season were better than our record suggests.

Norwich at home denied 2 penalties, Palace at home should have been down to 10 men and Vydra's miss in the last minute, Chelsea away and Vydra's chance in the last minute.

There will be more but from memory, happy to be corrected, our only 2 awful performances were Newcastle and Leeds away.

My point is that if the team can click and Wout can chip in with some goals, we have had performances this year suggesting we can win some games and hopefully give us a fighting chance.

claretburns wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 01, 2022 11:18 am

I feel performances in the 1st half of the season were better than our record suggests.

Norwich at home denied 2 penalties, Palace at home should have been down to 10 men and Vydra's miss in the last minute, Chelsea away and Vydra's chance in the last minute.

There will be more but from memory, happy to be corrected, our only 2 awful performances were Newcastle and Leeds away.

My point is that if the team can click and Wout can chip in with some goals, we have had performances this year suggesting we can win some games and hopefully give us a fighting chance.

Leicester and Leeds were another 2 we let slip in the dying minutes, so we could and possibly should have 3/4 wins on the board rather than only the 1.

However you don't get points for hard luck stories, so we need to ensure we close out games when we get ahead, this used to be something we were experts at, but recently we've dropped a lot of points from winning positions, and given we're never going to score loads it's crucial we maximise any goals we can conjure up.

What still gives me some hope is we've yet to play a lot of the lower half sides, and they're the games where we'll need to secure points if we've to have any hope of survival.

jedi_master wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 01, 2022 8:51 am

If he stays fit all season and Weghorst proves to be a reliable goalscorer - we have a chance. Nobody can dispute that (they will try to, though).

I wouldn't try to dispute it.
However, that chance we have is now a pretty slim one, now we failed to reinforce the midfield.

I hope I'm wrong, obviously, but I think we'll come up short.

Hopefully Weghorst and Cornet can click quickly. Weghorst on the end of Roberts’ long throws could certainly be interesting.

RVclaret wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 01, 2022 9:40 am

That’s goals per game at 1.7, pts per game is 1.1, which as I commented would take us to 33.

1.1 pts per game for the remaining 20 games would take us to 34 not 33 - another 22 pts on top of the 12 we already have

Was Cornet injured much at his previous club? Wondering whether he's picked up his little niggles this season because of the physical demands of the Premier League or whether this has been a regular problem?

With Weghorst scoring 1 in 2 over his career, I very much doubt he could carry that into the Premier league but could see him scoring 1 in 3 and over a full season around 12/14, I'd like to think he could pick up 6 or 7 from now until the end of the season with cornet scoring the same amount, with this the rest of the team needs to step up and start helping out if we are to stand a chance of staying up.

I can't see us overtaking Newcastle but you never know, on the plus side Cornet and Weghorst up front would terrorise the championship and hopefully score 40+ goals between them

JohnDearyMe wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 01, 2022 12:48 pm

Was Cornet injured much at his previous club? Wondering whether he's picked up his little niggles this season because of the physical demands of the Premier League or whether this has been a regular problem?

No very few injuries. Think this has been the adaptation to the PL and our ‘off the ball’ system rather than having most of the possession with Lyon. Requires different fitness, more sprints etc.

With regards to Newcastle can they say they have a better player up front that's more likely to score than Cornet?

We would have won our games against weakened sides that blagged a cancellation Watford, Villa, Everton and Spurs were poor at the time the weather intervened
That's 12 points .The predictions v games we can get points in is pretty much spot on, although United are far from a decent team.
With Wout against their very shaky defence a win is a likely outcome and I feel Liverpool at home again is a win.

jedi_master wrote: ↑

Tue Feb 01, 2022 10:03 am

Watford H - 3
Man Utd H - 1
Liverpool H - 0
Brighton A - 1
Palace A - 1
Chelsea H - 0
Brentford A - 1
Southampton H - 3
City H - 0
Norwich A - 3
West Ham A - 1
Wolves H - 3
Watford A - 3
Villa H - 3
Spurs A - 0
Newcastle H - 3

There you go, I have us getting 26 points from now till the end of the season giving us 38. That's before even looking at the other Covid postponement games that have not got new dates yet.

Does that really look unrealistic?

We have a bloody chance.

We've played 18 games. You've only got 16 there. I think you need to add Spurs H, Leicester H, Villa A and another.

dibraidio wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 02, 2022 8:08 am

We've played 18 games. You've only got 16 there. I think you need to add Spurs H, Leicester H, Villa A and another.

He does mention the postponed games to be fair mate.

Jambounchained wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 02, 2022 8:14 am

He does mention the postponed games to be fair mate.

He does, you're right, I was getting confused with Watford also being a postponed game.
So there's still Spurs H, Leicester H, Villa A, Everton H.

In seasons past I'd have been disappointed if we hadn't got 5 points or more from those games. Some winnable games at Turf Moor on a Tuesday night.

How do you feel the extra load of those postponed games will be born by your squad?
When is Cornet back for you?

TheFish wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 02, 2022 11:11 am

How do you feel the extra load of those postponed games will be born by your squad?
When is Cornet back for you?

Cornet is back in training today.

TheFish wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 02, 2022 11:11 am

How do you feel the extra load of those postponed games will be born by your squad?
When is Cornet back for you?

I prefer the team playing regular and in a routine. We don't change tactics that often so games have to be more worthwhile than training.

The rest didn't do us any good either.

Although we're in an evidently parlous situation, I genuinely feel like we're only 1 or 2 additions off being very competitive.

The stats about Cornet's starts vs without Cornet seem to bear that out.

Rowls wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 02, 2022 12:20 pm

Although we're in an evidently parlous situation, I genuinely feel like we're only 1 or 2 additions off being very competitive.

The stats about Cornet's starts vs without Cornet seem to bear that out.

I agree 1 or 2 now would be enough; however, by the end of the season I suspect that it will be more like 5 or 6.

Get Collins starting in a back 3 with Tarks and Mee and play 3-5-2 with Cornet and WW up front and we will have a chance. At least we will have fire power and a top class back 3 plus Pope.

ClaretPete001 wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 02, 2022 12:31 pm

I agree 1 or 2 now would be enough; however, by the end of the season I suspect that it will be more like 5 or 6.

And of course our net transfers incomings was zero with one in, one out.

All we can do is sing our hearts out and cheer them on.

Quickenthetempo wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 02, 2022 12:08 pm

I prefer the team playing regular and in a routine. We don't change tactics that often so games have to be more worthwhile than training.

The rest didn't do us any good either.

Makes sense. I guess it also means that should you stumble in one game, another one will be along to pick yourselves up sooner rather than later.

I think the next month or so is going to be pivotal for the relegation battle. Everton could get dragged into it, so could Brentford. So them + Burnley, Leeds, Newcastle, Norwich and Watford are all in it. It's going to be tighter than most seasons, I reckon.