Back to back wins at such a crucial time - 6 points would really see us on the march. If we have had a great start to season like say Brentford then these points against Utd and Arsenal would be superb points but when your at the bottom drip feeding points doesn't seem to change much.
Last night's performance gives hope that we can start getting these vital wins and ease the pressure.

s6t9a2f3f wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 09, 2022 9:50 am

Back to back wins at such a crucial time - 6 points would really see us on the march. If we have had a great start to season like say Brentford then these points against Utd and Arsenal would be superb points but when your at the bottom drip feeding points doesn't seem to change much.
Last night's performance gives hope that we can start getting these vital wins and ease the pressure.

Three games v Arsenal, watford and Manchester United

Optimistically you'd say three points and probably a negative goal difference

Three points and three pretty solid defensive performances (and one very good half of an all-round performance) is pretty good I'd say

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 09, 2022 9:55 am

Three games v Arsenal, watford and Manchester United

Optimistically you'd say three points and probably a negative goal difference

Three points and three pretty solid defensive performances (and one very good half of an all-round performance) is pretty good I'd say

3 pts was meets expectations and nothing more. To get out of this mess we are gonna need to get points from games where we dont expect to get any so to pull off two very good performances and get 2 pts from Man Utd and Arsenal and then fail to beat Watford is not good enough and doesnt get us any nearer to staying up

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 09, 2022 9:55 am

Three games v Arsenal, watford and Manchester United

Optimistically you'd say three points and probably a negative goal difference

Three points and three pretty solid defensive performances (and one very good half of an all-round performance) is pretty good I'd say

Very true, especially when you throw in the fact we were missing our top scorer for one and since he’s been getting back up to speed from AFCON. As well as Weghorst having to adapt to his new team and league.

I like looking at fixtures in blocks of 3 - and I think you’d also take 3 points from these next three of Liv (H), Brighton (A) and Spurs (H).

If we were only ever going to get 3 points out of the last 3 games it would have been much better to have got them against Watford than a point from each.

That said, whilst in isolation the Watford result looks like a poor one, the three games taken as a whole suggests a much more positive outlook than was thought possible after the three games immediately before.

I think you have to look at each game individually of course, but the last three performances do suggest that we are back to being hard to beat, and we crafted a wonderful goal last night

Its still going to be a huge struggle, but we've got a chance

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:05 am

I think you have to look at each game individually of course, but the last three performances do suggest that we are back to being hard to beat, and we crafted a wonderful goal last night

Its still going to be a huge struggle, but we've got a chance

duncandisorderly wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:03 am

If we were only ever going to get 3 points out of the last 3 games it would have been much better to have got them against Watford than a point from each.

That said, whilst in isolation the Watford result looks like a poor one, the three games taken as a whole suggests a much more positive outlook than was thought possible after the three games immediately before.

But in terms of league positions improving we are even further behind. We aren’t doing any better than our rivals & that’s something that needs rectifying if we are lifting ourselves out of the mess.

As Sean Dyche has said several times over the past few weeks, “positive signs” mean nothing if you don’t quickly translate them into wins.

We showed plenty of positive signs earlier this season (draws at Chelsea, Leicester, Wolves etc). The difficulty has been kicking on. That pretty much needs to happen this month or the gap will start to look too large to bridge.

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 09, 2022 9:55 am

Three games v Arsenal, watford and Manchester United

Optimistically you'd say three points and probably a negative goal difference

Three points and three pretty solid defensive performances (and one very good half of an all-round performance) is pretty good I'd say

Fair point but I think a win against Watford to achieve the 3 points would have been more positive.

Sitting in and grinding out points against the better teams while being unable to beat those at the bottom have been the pattern of the season and led to the problems we have because that's not how you survive in this division.

The problem we have is the press, second phase, the wing backs and converting defence into attack very quickly and effectively. What the last 3 games suggest is that the consequence of becoming more solid has led to to even less ability to create chances. The goal against United was individual brilliance by two forwards given space by United pushing forward. Watford didn't do that and neither will many other teams in the division

s6t9a2f3f wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 09, 2022 9:50 am

Back to back wins at such a crucial time - 6 points would really see us on the march. If we have had a great start to season like say Brentford then these points against Utd and Arsenal would be superb points but when your at the bottom drip feeding points doesn't seem to change much.
Last night's performance gives hope that we can start getting these vital wins and ease the pressure.

Totally agree back to back wins are gold dust in this league, and although we're picking up plenty of draws, unless we can translate a few of them into victories we'll struggle to climb the table.

Our last 15 games reads 1 win, 10 draws, and only 4 defeats, so we are difficult to beat now which wasn't the case early in the season, but those precious wins still remain elusive as ever.

tiger76 wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 09, 2022 11:25 am

Totally agree back to back wins are gold dust in this league, and although we're picking up plenty of draws, unless we can translate a few of them into victories we'll struggle to climb the table.

Our last 15 games reads 1 win, 10 draws, and only 4 defeats, so we are difficult to beat now which wasn't the case early in the season, but those precious wins still remain elusive as ever.

In Sept/Oct we secured 3 points in 4 consecutive games (0.75 per game) and in Oct/ Nov we secured 6 point in 4 consecutive games (1.5 per game). Our most successful run of consecutive games was 3 months ago just prior to losing to Newcastle.

In January we conceded 6 goals against Man Utd and Leeds our worst defensive performance in consecutive games.

I suppose you'd have to crunch the numbers properly but a superficial look suggest that the narrative of getting tighter/better looks to be untrue.

btw for our current run to beat the one achieved in Oct/Nov we would have to beat Liverpool

The last time we were in this mess was 2018-19. The difference then for us when we brought Heaton and McNeil in was that we managed 5 wins and 3 draws from the 8 game spell after Everton on Boxing Day to drag us clear.

I can’t see us having a similar run. We would need a run of 3-4 wins to give us some comfort I think.

We need to be looking at getting 22 points or thereabouts from our remaining 18 matches.

Spijed wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 09, 2022 1:18 pm

We need to be looking at getting 22 points or thereabouts from our remaining 18 matches.

You think 36pts will be enough? We are goosed whatever due to the teams in & around us being stronger, Newcastle & Everton notably 2. I don’t see 3 weaker teams & Brentford will take some catching.

Jakubclaret wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 09, 2022 1:25 pm

You think 36pts will be enough? We are goosed whatever due to the teams in & around us being stronger, Newcastle & Everton notably 2. I don’t see 3 weaker teams & Brentford will take some catching.

I've felt in recent seasons that it should be. Purely based on the ability of the so-called big six clubs to take more points off teams at the lower end of the table.

As a result the teams in 18th (last relegation spot) have started to get around 33/34 points for the last 4/5 seasons which has been a bit lower than before. Hence why Villa managed to stop up with 35 points two seasons ago and Bournemouth went down.

However, what can also distort a table come the end of the season are the meaningless points that teams win or lose when they are either safe or already relegated. So a team that finished on 40 points might not necessarily have got that many if they were in a dog-fight right at the end of the season due to pressure from below being applied.

That's why if we get to 36 it'll give us a real chance of stopping up.

Trend to agree with Jakubclaret as not sure 36 points will suffice
to keep us up.

If you look at those above us then:
Brentford would require 13 points from their 15 remaining games
Leeds 14 from 17, Everton 17 from 17, Newcastle 18 from 16,
Norwich 20 from 16, Watford 21 from 16
whilst we would need 22 points from our remaining 18 games.

If per chance the above happened then we would more than likely stay up on goal difference.

But somehow can't see any of Brentford, Leeds, Everton and Newcastle
not managing to get to 36 points not without a disasterous run of form.

I think we will need 39 points so another 25 points from our remaining 22 games.
7 wins and 4 draws in essence. Whilst hoping at least one if not two of the teams
above doesn't achieve much more than estimated.

We've done it before but it's a tall order.

Looking at the program ahead I think we are in for one almighty struggle for survival this season.

If SD and the players pull this one off, they all deserve a statue

jurek wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 09, 2022 3:34 pm

Trend to agree with Jakubclaret as not sure 36 points will suffice
to keep us up.

If you look at those above us then:
Brentford would require 13 points from their 15 remaining games
Leeds 14 from 17, Everton 17 from 17, Newcastle 18 from 16,
Norwich 20 from 16, Watford 21 from 16
whilst we would need 22 points from our remaining 18 games.

Points per game required for those examples to reach 36 points vs (what the teams have achieved so far) vs [last 8 games]

Leeds 0.82 (1.05) [1.25]
Brentford 0.87 (1.0) [0.75]
Everton 1.0 (0.9) [0.5]
Newcastle 1.13 (0.82) [1.38]
Norwich 1.25 (0.73) [0.75]
Watford 1.31 (0.68) [0.25]

Compared to Burnley 1.22 (0.7) [0.63]

I'm not sure I'd put money on more than 3 of the 6 we're in competition with reaching 36 points given their PPG so far and current form.

We have remained unbeaten away to Chelsea, Arsenal and at home to Man U. Those are not stats of a team getting relegated any time soon tbh. We don’t need to do what anyone else has done, we just need to keep on picking up points and finish above 3 teams. I can see us finishing above 3 teams, who they will be time will tell but my guess would be Watford, Brentford and one other, most probably Norwich. I wouldn’t rule Everton out either, particularly if we can beat them in the re-arranged game.

Jakubclaret wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:07 am

But in terms of league positions improving we are even further behind. We aren’t doing any better than our rivals & that’s something that needs rectifying if we are lifting ourselves out of the mess.

Way to find the negative in everything.......you go buddy!

s6t9a2f3f wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 09, 2022 9:50 am

Back to back wins at such a crucial time - 6 points would really see us on the march. If we have had a great start to season like say Brentford then these points against Utd and Arsenal would be superb points but when your at the bottom drip feeding points doesn't seem to change much.
Last night's performance gives hope that we can start getting these vital wins and ease the pressure.

Completely agree about the potential importance of last night's performance.

There has been a definite shift from earlier in the season when we were a side conceding soft goals leading to us consistently losing points from winning positions.

You are absolutely right in pointing out that we don't have the points in the bag like Brentford but of the 2 sides I am now more confident in us picking up more wins in the second half of the season. Back to back wins would definitely go a long way to reassuring my confidence.

Claretforever wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 09, 2022 1:08 pm

The last time we were in this mess was 2018-19. The difference then for us when we brought Heaton and McNeil in was that we managed 5 wins and 3 draws from the 8 game spell after Everton on Boxing Day to drag us clear.

I can’t see us having a similar run. We would need a run of 3-4 wins to give us some comfort I think.

The difference was we were not playing in Athens and Turkey on the Thursday.

s6t9a2f3f wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 09, 2022 9:50 am

Back to back wins at such a crucial time - 6 points would really see us on the march. .

Oh, well that's easy then..... now where did I put my magic wand?

We had to beat Watford. No excuses for that.

dougcollins wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 09, 2022 7:37 pm

We had to beat Watford. No excuses for that.

The dropped points at home to Leeds, Norwich and Watford could be costly come the end of the season, and if we're to give ourselves a chance we simply have to start beating the teams around us, as well as picking up a win or two against some of the lower half sides, play as we did in the 2nd half last night and that's a distinct possibility, but we need to turn up in the crunch games, otherwise these hard earned points against the big hitters will count for nowt.

Taffy on the wing wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 09, 2022 4:28 pm

Way to find the negative in everything.......you go buddy!

I fail to see any positives in getting bent over & dry power bummed.

One thing I’d not really noticed is that we’ve only lost 8 games. In reality that’s good going. That’s the same as West Ham in 4th. Really just need a few more goals and turn a couple of draws into wins. Play like we did 2nd half yesterday and they will come.

SydneyClaret wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:16 pm

One thing I’d not really noticed is that we’ve only lost 8 games. In reality that’s good going. That’s the same as West Ham in 4th. Really just need a few more goals and turn a couple of draws into wins. Play like we did 2nd half yesterday and they will come.

Nail on the head, if 2/3 of those 11 draws had been converted into wins we'd be bang on track, shows how close we really are, but equally how far away at the same time,

I do agree that 2nd half showing should give us hope, but yet again we couldn't nick a win, and that's been the story of our season.

We're by no means down and out yet, but we do need a win or two soon, if only to keep us in touch before the run-in.

SydneyClaret wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:16 pm

One thing I’d not really noticed is that we’ve only lost 8 games. In reality that’s good going. That’s the same as West Ham in 4th. Really just need a few more goals and turn a couple of draws into wins. Play like we did 2nd half yesterday and they will come.

A few more goals?

Certainly more hopeful.

Spijed wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 09, 2022 2:42 pm

I've felt in recent seasons that it should be. Purely based on the ability of the so-called big six clubs to take more points off teams at the lower end of the table.

As a result the teams in 18th (last relegation spot) have started to get around 33/34 points for the last 4/5 seasons which has been a bit lower than before. Hence why Villa managed to stop up with 35 points two seasons ago and Bournemouth went down.

However, what can also distort a table come the end of the season are the meaningless points that teams win or lose when they are either safe or already relegated. So a team that finished on 40 points might not necessarily have got that many if they were in a dog-fight right at the end of the season due to pressure from below being applied.

That's why if we get to 36 it'll give us a real chance of stopping up.

We have already dropped points against our relegation rivals at home & failed to even score, in order to get on a even keel we would need to go their place & do 1 better even scoring a goal would help, I keep asking the same question who apart from Newcastle are we going to pull into the mixer because there aren’t going in? We can’t win & Brentford have a good lead, maybe the idea is to keep on drawing & hope Norwich & Watford & Brentford all lose is that the masterplan?

Jakubclaret wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 09, 2022 11:44 pm

We have already dropped points against our relegation rivals at home & failed to even score, in order to get on a even keel we would need to go their place & do 1 better even scoring a goal would help, I keep asking the same question who apart from Newcastle are we going to pull into the mixer because there aren’t going in? We can’t win & Brentford have a good lead, maybe the idea is to keep on drawing & hope Norwich & Watford & Brentford all lose is that the masterplan?

Given the chance to question yourself what is it that you are not sure about? Something that makes you think ' I don't know maybe we can get out of this? '

You come over as a quitter

Elizabeth wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 10, 2022 12:05 am

Given the chance to question yourself what is it that you are not sure about? Something that makes you think ' I don't know maybe we can get out of this? '

You come over as a quitter

I’d love to know 3 other teams who are prime candidates ahead of us for relegation, because everybody else appears to be better than us, I know we have games in hand if we do something with them.

Yes, those games in hand might yet save us .
While I agree they give us hope , I also think that they will catch up with us and might only give us a couple of extra points on the teams above us.
We are in the proverbial Jakub but despite that I think we are going to do it.
Not because I want it, I'd much prefer the Championship , but because I think Dyche is over the worst this season and will come up trumps again

It’s rank bad management & the fans aren’t to blame.

You're right , fans deserve the best. I've rarely had a bad feeling about any Burnley manager and Dyche is one of the best we have ever had, if not the best in my lifetime after Harry Potts. .
Bad management? Absolutely not in my opinion. He's brought a wind of change to our club , let's be clear about that.


.

Elizabeth wrote: ↑

Thu Feb 10, 2022 12:44 am

You're right , fans deserve the best. I've rarely had a bad feeling about any Burnley manager and Dyche is one of the best we have ever had, if not the best in my lifetime after Harry Potts. .
Bad management? Absolutely not in my opinion. He's brought a wind of change to our club , let's be clear about that.


.

Definitely been some sort of a wind, night lady/fella.

I love the lady / fella bit. That's amusing.

My worst moments on this board have been compared to Ringo , a guy with seriously good emotions but spiked by confusion

Jakubclaret wrote: ↑

Wed Feb 09, 2022 10:16 pm

I fail to see any positives in getting bent over & dry power bummed.

Strange!