Russia Invades

[Bordeauxclaret]

Zero proof of Russian interference in referendum.


Lancasterclaret will never ever admit he was wrong. Never.

Literally two minutes earlier

[Lancasterclaret]

Literally two minutes earlier

I blocked him because he is abusive and basically ended up stalking me on here

Which he is still doing

[Hibsclaret]

Interesting listening to the Latvian deputy PM absolutely rip into Germany and Central Europe about the lack of action in relation to removing Russia from SWIFT. Also intimidated that the UK and US are some of the only states helping with ammo etc. Unbelievable that countries put finance above the shed of human lives. Also makes you wonder about the authenticity of the temporary halt of the pipeline deal and whether that is some kind of smokescreen.

The parallels between this and the start of ww2 are deafening. Absolutely incredible that this sort of stuff can still happen. I don’t think you can trust any countries as allies when it comes down to it and I think we should all be feeling as uneasy as we have felt within our lives.

[Lancasterclaret]

Interesting listening to the Latvian deputy PM absolutely rip into Germany and Central Europe about the lack of action in relation to removing Russia from SWIFT. Also intimidated that the UK and US are some of the only states helping with ammo etc. Unbelievable that countries put finance above the shed of human lives. Also makes you wonder about the authenticity of the temporary halt of the pipeline deal and whether that is some kind of smokescreen.

The parallels between this and the start of ww2 are deafening. Absolutely incredible that this sort of stuff can still happen. I don’t think you can trust any countries as allies when it comes down to it and I think we should all be feeling as uneasy as we have felt within our lives.

Certainly the timing of the attack so soon after retirement of Angela Merkel are key here

Scholz might be a brilliant chancellor, but he's had about 48 hours to make decisions that will change his country position on international conflicts, potentially for ever, and its not easy

Merkel would have just done it, and she would have had the political capital to pull it off

[Hibsclaret]

Absolutely agree about Merkel. There is weak leadership throughout the west and a perfect time for Putin.

[TsarBomba]

Russians really hitting hard around Kiev and Chernihiv to force a breakthrough, if not already.

Not seeing a great deal of reporting from the east.

And I can’t make out what is happening in the south, and whether there is any sort of coherent defensive line.

[Andreshotboots]

I feel really sorry for the normal Russian people too, I'm sure millions of which are dead against this invasion. Like the vast majority of us on this board, they probably all work hard then love their sport as a release from their everyday working lives and worries.

From a purely sporting point of view, you just can't see any Russian club teams, National teams or anthletes being involved in any tournaments, or competitions anytime soon.

Just no winners in any of this..

[Steve1956]

FB_IMG_1645788582527.jpg (78.73 KiB) Viewed 1779 times

[TsarBomba]

Lots of videos, which are difficult to verify, of streams of armoured columns still waiting to enter Ukraine, from both Ukraine and Belarus.

Estimates last night put the invasion force on day 1 between 30-60,000.

Estimates before the invasion were anything up to 200,000 amassed on Ukraines borders.

Russia very much has the capability to ratchet this up a lot further, if needed.

[TsarBomba]

Odessa being mined by the Ukrainians.

Still not seen any sort of amphibious landing in the south which was expected.

[elwaclaret]

Two weeks ago BP was boasting of record profits…. Just one great ‘British’ institution up to its neck in Russian coercion. Pretending this is not the result of Western greed and corruption at the top that has gone on thirty years too long is frankly, politically blind. We need to look long and hard at our own country, for sure but now is the time for clear and strong leadership not naval gazing. We need Russia back in its box and then we can look at ourselves. It is no coincidence Angela Martel has left the European stage either. There is no established ‘leader’ in the EU, to Putin it looks weak. Would Britain still being in Europe make a difference? I doubt it, it was never a harmonious relationship and I think those who consider Brexit pivotal overestimate Putin’s respect for our country, he sees us as weak and soft ‘old world’ Western corruption… a minor irritant with an accommodating money laundering system and a parliament that can be bought, whenever he needs a quick fix.

[Sottpark1 !]

Agree Lancaster Claret but the way protests were suppressed in Belorussia give a clue as to what would happen even with tv there they didn’t care ..and as to how the inevitable rubber stamping referendum will turn out, we have to get out of the mindset of thinking logically and rationally we are dealing with an autocrat here , we need to go in hard and harder than we have with sanctions to date, kicking out Russian sports team , kicking out some Russian oligarchs now, and yes when Chelsea come to town a team followed by many in Russia showing that we re with the Ukraine maybe displaying flags etc

[Lancasterclaret]

Lots of videos, which are difficult to verify, of streams of armoured columns still waiting to enter Ukraine, from both Ukraine and Belarus.

Estimates last night put the invasion force on day 1 between 30-60,000.

Estimates before the invasion were anything up to 200,000 amassed on Ukraines borders.

Russia very much has the capability to ratchet this up a lot further, if needed.

Yeah, but its all their version of the National Guard

I'm seeing lots more T-72s rather than T-80s for starters, which are not state of the art

The more older and less well trained troops they field, the higher their costs are (equipment/human lives)

Potentially also a sign of desperation as well, but I don't think it can be that

They must have known they would take very heavy casualties taken on essentially the 2nd strongest army in Europe surely?

[elwaclaret]

Odessa being mined by the Ukrainians.

Still not seen any sort of amphibious landing in the south which was expected.

They need to Odessa will definitely be a goal. The October revolution will be seen as Putin as the Revolution that should have stuck… its a major event in Russian historic propaganda. The Steps signalled pre- Bolshevik Revolution, and fits Putin’s agenda perfectly.

[Lancasterclaret]

They need to Odessa will definitely be a goal. The October revolution will be seen as Putin as the Revolution that should have stuck… its a major event in Russian historic propaganda. The Steps signalled pre- Bolshevik Revolution, and fits Putin’s agenda perfectly.

Well, no

Its a major port that could be used to resupply Ukrainian forces

[Hibsclaret]

Putin showed exactly what he thought of the UK with the novichok disgrace. He’s been testing the water for the last 2 decades and we still faff around with nonsense sanctions that have never and will never work. Heard someone say this morning that the increased oil prices more than offset the impact of our sanctions. We are pretty much doing the square root of nothing about this at the minute. Much like the Americans amongst others did during ww2 until Pearl Harbour.

[Lancasterclaret]

До біса Путіна

[Lancasterclaret]

Thats "F**k Putin" in Ukrainian

[elwaclaret]

Well, no

Its a major port that could be used to resupply Ukrainian forces

Not sure what “well no” is supposed to mean? It may be an important port it is also swamped in Russian history and legend. I suggest you look at the propaganda work of Eisenstein et Al of the Soviet montage period of film… Battleship Potemkin and The Odessa Steps. Frankly it is only my respect for you that has illicited a reply, but I would remind you, you are not alone in being a graduate of History (far from it) and such responses (as your reply) are utter nonsense.

[RingoMcCartney]

I blocked him because he is abusive and basically ended up stalking me on here

Which he is still doing

Hahaha. Rewriting history has you've with your ridiculous unfounded claim that " Putin backed brexit !"

You haven't blocked me for any other reason than that I've proven you time and time again to be wrong .

[RingoMcCartney]

Certainly the timing of the attack so soon after retirement of Angela Merkel are key here

Scholz might be a brilliant chancellor, but he's had about 48 hours to make decisions that will change his country position on international conflicts, potentially for ever, and its not easy

Merkel would have just done it, and she would have had the political capital to pull it off

Is that the same Merkel that touted EU membership to Ukraine that is part of where we find ourselves today?

School girl error on her part.

[Lancasterclaret]

Not sure what “well no” is supposed to mean? It may be an important port it is also swamped in Russian history and legend. I suggest you look at the propaganda work of Eisenstein et Al of the Soviet montage period of film… Battleship Potemkin and The Odessa Steps. Frankly it is only my respect for you that has illicited a reply, but I would remind you, you are not alone in being a graduate of History (far from it) and such responses (as your reply) are utter nonsense.

Ok

The symbolism of various places in Russia history isn't relevant on Day 2 of a war to take over a country

The ammunition, supply and equipment status of the Ukrainian army is

Realistically, that can come from two sources, the land borders with Poland, Slovakia, Hungary or through the Port of Odessa on the Black Sea

If a ship, flagged by an EU nation (for example) carrying military equipment heads towards Odessa, do you think the Russians are going to attack it?

No (well you'd certainly hope not)

But if the Port is occupied, then it can't be used as supply source*

*there is a very convincing argument that they don't need to take it, they just need to make it too dangerous for ships to enter

Does that explain it better?

No disrespect intended by the way, its just that the military priorities will take precedence over the symbolic ones

[RingoMcCartney]

Callers on Talkradio very angry for EU not towing the line on sanctions , mainly SWIFT , and we all know why .

[PeterWilton]

Putin showed exactly what he thought of the UK with the novichok disgrace. He’s been testing the water for the last 2 decades and we still faff around with nonsense sanctions that have never and will never work. Heard someone say this morning that the increased oil prices more than offset the impact of our sanctions. We are pretty much doing the square root of nothing about this at the minute. Much like the Americans amongst others did during ww2 until Pearl Harbour.

Novichok and Polonium. And each time our responses were weak. Did we even sanction them after Litvinenko's murder? I wasn't paying attention to UK politics back then.

[TsarBomba]

Yeah, but its all their version of the National Guard

I'm seeing lots more T-72s rather than T-80s for starters, which are not state of the art

The more older and less well trained troops they field, the higher their costs are (equipment/human lives)

Potentially also a sign of desperation as well, but I don't think it can be that

They must have known they would take very heavy casualties taken on essentially the 2nd strongest army in Europe surely?

Difficult to judge.

There were stories 2-3 days before the invasion that Russia was putting their 18 year old conscripts straight into the trenches in the Donbas.

With the amount of NLAWs and Javelins delivered, it’s very possible that the Russians have done the opposite of what we would expect, and have committed more of their less experienced and lesser equipped BTG’s first.

[RingoMcCartney]

Gary stick to virtue signalling

Screenshot_20220225-111921_Samsung Internet.jpg (310.57 KiB) Viewed 1651 times

What an absolute tool

[CoolClaret]

I do agree with the sentiment that Putin started to believe his own **** and thought he could roll Ukraine in a day. Surrounded by yes men too scared to tell him that he’s off his rocker.

Seems obvious that there troops aren’t motivated, as they soon probably realised that they aren’t you know, liberating Ukraine from Nazis…

A young Russian soldier probably thinking ‘these people are the same as me, what are we really doing here?!’

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dedovshchina

^ that is important in the context of the Russian army.

[Lancasterclaret]

Difficult to judge.

There were stories 2-3 days before the invasion that Russia was putting their 18 year old conscripts straight into the trenches in the Donbas.

With the amount of NLAWs and Javelins delivered, it’s very possible that the Russians have done the opposite of what we would expect, and have committed more of their less experienced and lesser equipped BTG’s first.

Could be, but they stripped all their borders to put 75% of their front line troops for this

I'm still convinced that Putin has believed his own propaganda here, and expected Ukraine to cave in

Course, its also an excellent way of highlighting Russian military strength, but with the response that will get from the West long term you do wonder how he wins long term

[elwaclaret]

Ok

The symbolism of various places in Russia history isn't relevant on Day 2 of a war to take over a country

The ammunition, supply and equipment status of the Ukrainian army is

Realistically, that can come from two sources, the land borders with Poland, Slovakia, Hungary or through the Port of Odessa on the Black Sea

If a ship, flagged by an EU nation (for example) carrying military equipment heads towards Odessa, do you think the Russians are going to attack it?

No (well you'd certainly hope not)

But if the Port is occupied, then it can't be used as supply source*

*there is a very convincing argument that they don't need to take it, they just need to make it too dangerous for ships to enter

Does that explain it better?

No disrespect intended by the way, its just that the military priorities will take precedence over the symbolic ones

Again, with respect I disagree. Putin has made it very clear this IS about Russian history. I read it that Ukraine was mining Odessa in preparation of attack, sadly mid post I cannot check that it was I that was in error there… for that reason I’m certainly not willing to back my reading over yours of the post, without rechecking that. Taking control of Odessa will puff out Russian chests like little else in Ukraine and convince the Russian public (through manipulation of the facts) that this is the shared history Putin keeps banging on about.

[Gibbo]

I don't think Putin has showcased Russian military strength, as the Ukrainians seem to be causing them a few problems. If anything it should boost the West confidence that it should be able to deal with Russia in a conventional war.

[PeterWilton]

I don't think Putin has showcased Russian military strength, as the Ukrainians seem to be causing them a few problems. If anything it should boost the West confidence that it should be able to deal with Russia in a conventional war.

There's a non-zero chance that if Ukraine exceed everyone's expectations and holds back the Russians for weeks or months, that Putin decides to use one of his 2,000-ish "battlefield" nuclear weapons to basically force an unconditional surrender, if for no other reason than to save face from losing a war with Ukraine.

That might prompt Germany to reconsider SWIFT access. lol.

[elwaclaret]

There's a non-zero chance that if Ukraine exceed everyone's expectations and holds back the Russians for weeks or months, that Putin decides to use one of his 2,000-ish "battlefield" nuclear weapons to basically force an unconditional surrender, if for no other reason than to save face from losing a war with Ukraine.

That might prompt Germany to reconsider SWIFT access. lol.

I find your continued use of words like ‘funny’ and ‘lol’ as frankly quite unfathomable. You seem to think you live in a bubble, I repeat there is nothing funny about what is happening in Europe and self illusion of the seriousness of what is happening does your potentially relevant points an injustice.

[Lancasterclaret]

Again, with respect I disagree. Putin has made it very clear this IS about Russian history. I read it that Ukraine was mining Odessa in preparation of attack, sadly mid post I cannot check that it was I that was in error there… for that reason I’m certainly not willing to back my reading over yours of the post, without rechecking that. Taking control of Odessa will puff out Russian chests like little else in Ukraine and convince the Russian public (through manipulation of the facts) that this is the shared history Putin keeps banging on about.

Ok

Do you think the Russians are going for K'yiv because its the home of the Orthodox church and the birthplace of the Russian state?

Or because its the capital of Ukraine and the seat of the government, and capturing it would almost certainly condemn Ukraine to defeat?

I appreciate where you are coming from, and I like the theory, but the military realities will have precedence

[PeterWilton]

This might be full of hopium but sometimes a dose of hopium is what we need.

After one of my @CNN appearances, one of the anchors asked me off-air why I had confidence in Ukraine's army to push back agains the illegal Russian military onslaught.

I used a bit of "battlefield math" to explain my rationale. 1/16
Their are two major factors most military folks consider to determine combat power: the force's resources and the force's will.

There are more elements under each of these categories that contribute to military capabilities. 2/
The force's RESOURCES: that's quantity (size of the force, Number of different capabilities...like air, artillery, # of soldiers), quality of equipment, extent and specificity of their training, their logistics & ability to resupply, their intelligence, etc. 3/
The force's WILL: soldiers' morale, a belief in the cause for which they fight, support they receive from both their fellow citizens & their government's leadership, their unit leaders...and especially, what they get from their comrades. Values are a big piece of this. 4/
There are historical examples where a force with superior WILL can defeat a force with superior RESOURCES.

Forces with an unshakable belief in what they are fighting for - with the right support - can overcome a force that seemingly has superior resources. 5/
The Russians currently have an advantage in resources. The quantity of their force provides a quality all its own, their equipment is relatively good (not great), their artillery and long range fires are devastating, and they have air superiority.

But... 6/
Russian training sucks (I say this having seen Russians train & seeing how they conduct "exercises"). Their log & intel is clumsy. Their soldiers are mostly 1-yr conscripts, not professionals, and they have a poor NCO Corps. Their officers - for the most part - are terrible. 7/
When I first served w Ukrainian soldiers (in 2004), they were also poorly led, trained & disciplined. But they have improved, significantly, because of revamped training, more battlefield experience & good leaders.
BTW, I wrote this piece about my experience w/them in 2014: 8/
armytimes.com/opinion/2014/1… 9/

Opinion: A case for doing more for Ukraine
Retired Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling, former commander of U.S. Army Europe, issues a call to action in support of Ukraine.
https://www.armytimes.com/opinion/2014/ ... r-ukraine/
Since then, Ukraine's Army has continued to evolve...and now, they have an extremely supportive population, good officer & NCO leadership, they are a professional force w/ a good reserve ready to support, & their government is also supportive. 10/
Add to this, Ukraine now has allies...all over the world. More support.

Putin has turned the Russian effort into one receiving scorn, because of the lies and crimes HE has committed. That will worsen as RU forces continue to commit battlefield atrocities, which they will. 11/
Ukraine had a tough first day. Tomorrow will be tougher. Combined RU conventional, unconventional, cyber, air, arty & special ops tools will be tough to address.

But Russia is still on the *offensive* so they have to act, and must continue to "move." They will wear down. 12/
Though Ukraine's initial defense wasn't great today, it will improve. Whether called an "insurgency" or a "guerilla war," UKR will wear down an enemy that already has low morale & an even lower support from their population back in mother RU (see protests). 13/
Don't discount the RU Army's increasingly unwillingness to fight for Putin. They will see their *cause* as being suspect....if they don't already. And they will experience more battlefield deaths than they anticipated, which will cause even more protests at home. 14/
It will likely be a long fight.

Putin will be increasingly portrayed as a loser.

He not a risk taker, he's a gambler. You can mitigate risk, but you can't overcome a losing gamble.

Putin will go the way of Stalin,Hitler, Ceausescu, Saddam. 15/
And Ukraine will be a stronger nation...but only if we continue to stand beside. 16/end

Thread: https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status ... 6139738125

[CombatClaret]

I don't think Putin has showcased Russian military strength, as the Ukrainians seem to be causing them a few problems. If anything it should boost the West confidence that it should be able to deal with Russia in a conventional war.

Russian military strength still as ever relives heavily on strength of number. Thing's we've not seen which we in the west are used to seeing:

- Precision-guided missile strikes at the outset. Russia does not have a large enough stockpile and will have kept in reserve in case of another party joining the conflict.
- Successful cyber-attacks or cutting of internet/cell services.
- Unmanned aircraft (drones)

Russia is still very much in control as it has air superiority, with that you can move your troops freely which you opponent is restricted to the areas they are deployed to.
Ukraine is now limited to fighting on foot with rifles, molotovs, the occasional anti-tank misile or RPG.

[Lancasterclaret]

Just waiting to see if its independently verified, but there are reports of a Romanian flagged cargo ship being hit by a Russian missile off the coast of Ukraine

That isn't going to help

[atlantalad]

There are plenty of discussions covering what the EU/UK did, ( or did not do), that lead to Putin perceiving the West as being weak. Hindsight is always a great attribute ( many on here have it by the bucket full). Stand back and think. Being realistic, what would "you" have done to prevent Putin invading Russia? He knew we could and would impose sanctions. Does that mean we should have imposed hard hitting sanction years ago so as to undermine his power? If so, how do you think the ordinary Russian population would have perceived the West? He knew we had military deterrents as an option. To me he has called our bluff knowing that we would not use the ultimate option. Sadly, he is reinstating the Iron curtain on mainland Europe and there is nothing we can do but accept it - unless we go to war.

[GodIsADeeJay81]

https://twitter.com/Frances_Coppola/sta ... gi-5A&s=19

Interesting move by the USA, side stepping Swift by shutting out Russia's two biggest banks from international dollar clearing.

Looks like they didn't want to wait for the EU/Belgium to act

[Gibbo]

No chance the Russian Elite will allow Putin to use nuclear weapons to force an outcome, the ramifications would be to great. More likely will claim the two region's in the east were their objectives all along and claim victory. Unfortunately long term resistance by Ukraine is unlikely.

[Lowbankclaret]

They are not going to stop Russia using Swift, the reason. That instantly stops EU countries buying oil and gas from Russia. That puts the lights out across Europe.

I am seeing messages already Burnley fuel stations are once again running out of petrol and diesel as people start to panic buy.

[Lancasterclaret]

Worth mentioning whatever happens, but the Snake Island incident will be remember in Ukraine whatever happens, and the that is the sort of story that countries treasure as part of their history

Essentially, even if it is occupied, the memory of a free Ukraine won't go away, and this is why I don't understand the Russian long term vision here

[Lowbankclaret]

It’s interesting that the uk was the only country to ban Aeroflot from its country.
That’s resulted in all Uni flights being banned from Russian airspace.

Hope everyone follows suit.

Also F1 just cancelled the Russian GP.

[CombatClaret]

Stand back and think. Being realistic, what would "you" have done to prevent Putin invading Russia? He knew we could and would impose sanctions. Does that mean we should have imposed hard hitting sanction years ago so as to undermine his power?

US Spokesperson made this very point quite well. Firstly you have to pursue peace through diplomatic means until the last minute.
Impose sanctions in advance and he can use that as evidence of western aggression.
Impose sanctions in advance and Putin may think "We'll I'm paying for something I haven't done yet, so I may as well take what I'm paying for".

[Lowbankclaret]

Worth mentioning whatever happens, but the Snake Island incident will be remember in Ukraine whatever happens, and the that is the sort of story that countries treasure as part of their history

Essentially, even if it is occupied, the memory of a free Ukraine won't go away, and this is why I don't understand the Russian long term vision here

Yes There are some moments in history of war remembered.

There is a village in France left as a monument to what happened there.

[elwaclaret]

Ok

Do you think the Russians are going for K'yiv because its the home of the Orthodox church and the birthplace of the Russian state?

Or because its the capital of Ukraine and the seat of the government, and capturing it would almost certainly condemn Ukraine to defeat?

I appreciate where you are coming from, and I like the theory, but the military realities will have precedence

Again I accept your argument in- toto, but as you know spiders webs not single points drive history; Odessa is a totem and a major badge of what Putin sees as anti- (western supported) imperialism. It is another reason he has been attacking Lenin’s memory ( yet noticeably relatively little regarding Stalin). Putin’s argument are designed to appeal to a very different view of history, of Russia resisting tyranny. The same propaganda the Soviet Union has pushed since before the Russian Civil War… the Bolshevik’s were past masters of manipulation and spin…. The same repeated nonsense we are hearing again, it may not fit factual history, but it correlates perfectly with the long established propaganda campaign of the Soviets. Which is why it is more than Ukraine… this will spill into the Balkans if it is not stopped quickly; even not allowing for China’s interest in mopping up their own zone of influence. After todays meeting with Moscow I expect China to start making moves within days… a second front. As the old Chinese curse goes… may we live in interesting times.

[Lowbankclaret]

How many businesses in the UK would be screwed if we stopped buying from China?

A lot, but they invade Taiwan we might have to make that sacrifice.

[GodIsADeeJay81]

It’s interesting that the uk was the only country to ban Aeroflot from its country.
That’s resulted in all Uni flights being banned from Russian airspace.

Hope everyone follows suit.

Also F1 just cancelled the Russian GP.

Man Utd just cancelled their sponsorship deal with Aeroflot

[Lowbankclaret]

I doubt that Lowbank to take the whole of Ukraine he would need nearer 1 million troops and to hold it he would probably need double that.

I suspect his initial goal was to join the Russian controlled enclaves which I think he has more or less don. Then surround Kiev and impose a puppet Government after the prime minister surrenders or is killed.

Just from reading Osint stuff online no idea if true but putin seemingly has a relatively small amount of hardened troops near Ukraine maybe around 30,000 ish the rest are conscript types.

They are expecting a heavy air bombardment in Kiev shortly according to Ukraine officials let’s see what is left when we wake up.

If that’s not all in, I don’t know what is, these are the areas of fighting.

6C68276F-85BA-459C-AA24-0D094C79D1B8.jpeg (1.37 MiB) Viewed 1405 times

[atlantalad]

There are plenty of discussions covering what the EU/UK did, ( or did not do), that lead to Putin perceiving the West as being weak. Hindsight is always a great attribute ( many on here have it by the bucket full). Stand back and think. Being realistic, what would "you" have done to prevent Putin invading Ukraine? He knew we could and would impose sanctions. Does that mean we should have imposed hard hitting sanction years ago so as to undermine his power? If so, how do you think the ordinary Russian population would have perceived the West? He knew we had military deterrents as an option. To me he has called our bluff knowing that we would not use the ultimate option. Sadly, he is reinstating the Iron curtain on mainland Europe and there is nothing we can do but accept it - unless we go to war.

[elwaclaret]

Difficult to judge.

There were stories 2-3 days before the invasion that Russia was putting their 18 year old conscripts straight into the trenches in the Donbas.

With the amount of NLAWs and Javelins delivered, it’s very possible that the Russians have done the opposite of what we would expect, and have committed more of their less experienced and lesser equipped BTG’s first.

The modern equivalent of sending the serfs to the front line… hopefully with similar results to WW1. But Putin also has Stalingrad to draw on… where Commissars re-I forced the line by giving their young men… die fighting or die a traitor, which seems to fit more with Putin’s vision.