Russia Invades

[JarrowClaret]

When you look at the speed of advances towards Kyiv the Ukrainians seem to be doing better in the east I wonder if that is deliberate to drag the Russians into guerrilla warfare around Kyiv on the west. Clearly they had to take back the airfield can’t remember name of it for strategic reasons so maybe that has played apart in the slow advance from the North East.

[TsarBomba]

I don't think Putin has showcased Russian military strength, as the Ukrainians seem to be causing them a few problems. If anything it should boost the West confidence that it should be able to deal with Russia in a conventional war.

We haven’t seen anything like the full capability of the Russian military.

So far, it has been very limited. Hypersonic missiles have not been employed.

The intention so far has been to tie Ukrainian forces down and insert quickly into Kiev to remove the govt.

If this doesn’t work, then the military operation may broaden considerably.

[AlargeClaret]

It’s almost like a training with live rounds exercise for Russia . While they dwarf the UKR with military prowess , strictly from a tactical view this is up there with “ prime blitzkreig” when the Germans defeated Belgium and Holland before pushing the BEF into the sea and forcing the almost thinkable surrender of France . Was rather hoping the UKR we’re gonna put up more of a fight

[elwaclaret]

When you look at the speed of advances towards Kyiv the Ukrainians seem to be doing better in the east I wonder if that is deliberate to drag the Russians into guerrilla warfare around Kyiv on the west. Clearly they had to take back the airfield can’t remember name of it for strategic reasons so maybe that has played apart in the slow advance from the North East.

Without doubt the game plan has to be very much based on what the Fins did to Russia prior to WW2. Blowing away Russian lines of supply is very much the way to go, isolate pockets of invaders and drain Russian moral by significant disruption of their ability to make war effectively.

[elwaclaret]

It’s almost like a training with live rounds exercise for Russia . While they dwarf the UKR with military prowess , strictly from a tactical view this is up there with “ prime blitzkreig” when the Germans defeated Belgium and Holland before pushing the BEF into the sea and forcing the almost thinkable surrender of France . Was rather hoping the UKR we’re gonna put up more of a fight

Personally I think the Ukraine are doing better than I expected. Air domination means ‘line defence’ is impossible for the Ukraine.. far better to let them in and then cut them off… look what happened to Russia in Afghanistan for another example.

(Edit - further example)

[CombatClaret]

We haven’t seen anything like the full capability of the Russian military.
So far, it has been very limited. Hypersonic missiles have not been employed.

You only need hypersonic missiles when your opponent has first-class anti-missle defenses and targets intact worth hitting.
Ukraine has neither as far as I can tell.
Russia will be keeping them in reserve in case the US or a coalition tries to sail a carrier battlefleet into the Black Sea.

The biggest obstacle to Russia is now an insurgency war, which they will probably try throwing more and better-trained soldiers at along with conventional airstrikes if they spot enough troops holed up in one place.

[JarrowClaret]

If that’s not all in, I don’t know what is, these are the areas of fighting.

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I could be wrong Lowbank but I think the areas to the west air air strikes/ missile strikes on strategic places rather than ground troops fighting.

Anyway main advances currently are towards Kyiv from the North West.

[TsarBomba]

Kremlin- ready to send delegation to Minsk for talks.

[PeterWilton]

When you look at the speed of advances towards Kyiv the Ukrainians seem to be doing better in the east I wonder if that is deliberate to drag the Russians into guerrilla warfare around Kyiv on the west. Clearly they had to take back the airfield can’t remember name of it for strategic reasons so maybe that has played apart in the slow advance from the North East.

I believe i read that 50% of the Ukraine forces were east-facing, and that they generally had more combat experience.

[elwaclaret]

I could be wrong Lowbank but I think the areas to the west air air strikes/ missile strikes on strategic places rather than ground troops fighting.

Anyway main advances currently are towards Kyiv from the North West.

Reports last night suggest that Russia took advantage of the no-go area around Chernobyl to move troops along the border and into the interior.

[RingoMcCartney]

Putin saying he's sending a delegation to Minsk for peace talks. According to radio.

[RingoMcCartney]

Ukraine MOD reporting more than a 1000 Russian casualties

[elwaclaret]

Britain still feeding Putin… we will not risk escalation by creating a no fly zone. Green light to Putin that the UK will roll over at te first opportunity. Things like that may have been decided but announcing such is manor from heaven for Putin’s ambition Naivety does not begin to explain the British Government position.

[Stayingup]

Terrible this. Putin is a monster. Sanctions abd cancelling sports events aren't going to hurt too much. India and China - the two major countries who didn't sign up.to Cop26 agreements- are still trading with Russia so they can get most requirements from them. If its a European requirement they can go through Belarus.

Most galling is that they Russia is still selling gas and oil to Europe at inflated prices making them richer and Europe poorer.

[PeterWilton]

Britain still feeding Putin… we will not risk escalation by creating a no fly zone. Green light to Putin that the UK will roll over at te first opportunity. Things like that may have been decided but announcing such is manor from heaven for Putin’s ambition Naivety does not begin to explain the British Government position.

Expecting NATO to enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine is ******* insane. It would be even worse than putting boots on the ground in Ukraine because there is a near 100% certainty that Russia would violate it and we'd have to shoot them down. That means a war with Russia... that we started.

I get the desire to help Ukraine militarily, I have that desire too, but we just can't, yet. If we do then WE would be the aggressors against Russia. The only way we can help Ukraine is if Russia attacks NATO first.

[Lowbankclaret]

Terrible this. Putin is a monster. Sanctions abd cancelling sports events aren't going to hurt too much. India and China - the two major countries who didn't sign up.to Cop26 agreements- are still trading with Russia so they can get most requirements from them. If its a European requirement they can go through Belarus.

Most galling is that they Russia is still selling gas and oil to Europe at inflated prices making them richer and Europe poorer.

The real problem with oil and gas is most EU countries electric supplies would be disrupted if they didn’t continue to buy Russia gas and oil. That’s why Putin knew he could do this and we could not put sanctions on him that would have any effect. Apparently Russia gets $700 million a day from the world from oil and gas.

[elwaclaret]

Expecting NATO to enforce a no-fly zone over Ukraine is ******* insane. It would be even worse than putting boots on the ground in Ukraine because there is a near 100% certainty that Russia would violate it and we'd have to shoot them down. That means a war with Russia... that we started.

I get the desire to help Ukraine militarily, I have that desire too, but we just can't, yet. If we do then WE would be the aggressors against Russia. The only way we can help Ukraine is if Russia attacks NATO first.

You seem to misinterpreting; what NATO decides is one thing… announcing it to the Media is NOT what you do when facing a potential direct threat. Ruling anything out is weakness… can you imagine Putin being anything but delighted to get confirmation that the UK continues to look at the short term.

[PeterWilton]

You seem to misinterpreting; what NATO decides is one thing… announcing it to the Media is NOT what you do when facing a potential direct threat. Ruling anything out is weakness… can you imagine Putin being anything but delighted to get confirmation that the UK continues to look at the short term.

ah, I see what you're saying.

I don't see the virtue of not ruling it out. It'd be so insane that Putin already knows we're never going to do it unless we're attacked first, even if our leaders refuse to answer a question about it.

When asked questions we want our leaders to give answers. There are certainly some questions where our leaders will have to play their cards close to their chest for the reason you highlight - to keep Putin in the dark. But Putin isn't in the dark as to what the real answer would be here, so there's no reason not to give an answer to that question. The only thing avoiding any such question would do would be to undermine the times when the cards are played close.

To continue the poker analogy, to try to dupe Putin on the possibility of us enforcing a no-fly zone, when he knows we won't, would be like trying to bluff after he already knows what our hand is.

[elwaclaret]

ah, I see what you're saying.

I don't see the virtue of not ruling it out. It'd be so insane that Putin already knows we're never going to do it unless we're attacked first, even if our leaders refuse to answer a question about it.

When asked questions we want our leaders to give answers. There are certainly some questions where our leaders will have to play their cards close to their chest for the reason you highlight - to keep Putin in the dark. But Putin isn't in the dark as to what the real answer would be here, so there's no reason not to give an answer to that question. The only thing avoiding any such question would do would be to undermine the times when the cards are played close.

To continue the poker analogy, to try to dupe Putin on the possibility of us enforcing a no-fly zone, when he knows we won't, would be like trying to bluff after he already knows what our hand is.

I think you are over crediting Putin with (western) reasoning. Drawing a line in the sand for the enemy to stand over has president - Poland and ‘peace in our time’ most obviously.

[PeterWilton]

I think you are over crediting Putin with (western) reasoning. Drawing a line in the sand for the enemy to stand over has president - Poland and ‘peace in our time’ most obviously.

But since the effect of it would mean WE would be the aggressors the question is, effectively, "are we going to be an aggressor?", and Putin knows the answer to that. The only effect of not answering that question honestly would be to cause doubt among our own population. And that would be stupid to do when you have no reason to.

[Lancasterclaret]

You can't have a No-fly zone over Ukraine

The chances of NATO and Russian aircraft fighting each other would be massively increased

Look, if the reports are true that Russia are willing to negotiate, and they are serious, then its because the sanctions plus the Ukrainian defence have pushed him to that stage

I suspect its a ruse to try to avoid worse sanctions while Russia goes full on to grab as much land as it can get

But who knows?

Only a madman starts a war with a country as big and as well armed as Ukraine (and they have had eight years combat experience, which will probably make them some of the best trained troops in the world)

[FCBurnley]

Only following this on here but it reads to me that Putin has the upper hand thru his gas and oil supplies to rest of Europe.
Who on earth agreed to Russia having that power over other countries especially UK ?

[PeterWilton]

Only following this on here but it reads to me that Putin has the upper hand thru his gas and oil supplies to rest of Europe.
Who on earth agreed to Russia having that power over other countries especially UK ?

Everyone who didn't listen to the rest of us who said "hey, maybe instead of letting ourselves be dependent on Russia for our energy, perhaps we can instead take advantage of all this ******* wind and coastline we have". But noooo.

[Lancasterclaret]

Only following this on here but it reads to me that Putin has the upper hand thru his gas and oil supplies to rest of Europe.
Who on earth agreed to Russia having that power over other countries especially UK ?

tbf, I don't think he has

He thinks he has though

I'm pretty sure that public opinion in the EU is massively against Russia, and that will translate into actions that will further hit the Russian economy

But its only been 48 hours, there really hasn't been enough time yet for anything other than understandable levels of condemnation and sanctions

[FCBurnley]

Everyone who didn't listen to the rest of us who said "hey, maybe instead of letting ourselves be dependent on Russia for our energy, perhaps we can instead take advantage of all this ******* wind and coastline we have". But noooo.

Wow that is shocking. I had no idea. Think America will be in the same position very soon now we are no longer self dependent for gas and oil !

[Stayingup]

Everyone who didn't listen to the rest of us who said "hey, maybe instead of letting ourselves be dependent on Russia for our energy, perhaps we can instead take advantage of all this ******* wind and coastline we have". But noooo.

Particularly wave power. Its surely got to be activated. Meantime and when the wind doesn't blow we need to use our own resources. Note. Meantime. As things stand when the wind does blow it provides @24% of the countries requirement. Not enough.

[Stayingup]

Wow that is shocking. I had no idea. Think America will be in the same position very soon now we are no longer self dependent for gas and oil !

America is self sufficient and exports LNG. We buy from them. Yes they frack

[PeterWilton]

America is self sufficient and exports LNG. We buy from them. Yes they frack

They also have flammable tap water and earthquakes nowhere near fault lines.


Anyway, stayingup, i did some digging and you and some clever fellow in 2018 seemed to agree on this even back then.

You said, "It would be good not to have to rely on Arab and Russian oil and gas and be self sufficient."
And your fellow foreseer of problems replied, "An excellent argument for exploiting the renewable energy sources we have."

You and he should run this country.

[Vegas Claret]

https://twitter.com/Frances_Coppola/sta ... gi-5A&s=19

Interesting move by the USA, side stepping Swift by shutting out Russia's two biggest banks from international dollar clearing.

Looks like they didn't want to wait for the EU/Belgium to act

it's a fantastic move

[KateR]

I don't believe it's peace talks he will be looking at, it will be an ultimatum to surrender, look you've lost, your tiny and we will win and kill so many of you, yes we'll lose some to but you're going to lose far more, the west simply isn't going to help you out of the inevitable, you'll be welcomed home like our long lost brother. It'll be peace talks while holding a gun to their heads.

[PeterWilton]

Particularly wave power. Its surely got to be activated. Meantime and when the wind doesn't blow we need to use our own resources. Note. Meantime. As things stand when the wind does blow it provides @24% of the countries requirement. Not enough.

Yeah. Intermittency is an issue, but it's a predictable one. This is why I think we should saturate ourselves in wind, solar, tidal etc. And move towards only using fossil fuels as a secondary source.

I know we like to make fun of our weather forecasts but they're incredibly accurate, and while we might not know when and where it's going to rain, we can predict wind and sunlight quite easily (and obviously tidal is just basically a clock). So we'll always know how much energy our renewables will produce.

Every roof that can hold solar panels should have solar panels. Turn the entire country into a solar farm and no home would need to pay for electricity again [citation needed lol].

[FCBurnley]

Huge anti solar panel lobbying in Florida by guess who ? Yes you got it. The Electricty suppliers ! My average electricity bill is about $400 per month
!!!

[Lancasterclaret]

Putin is ranting on TV about Nazis in charge in K'yiv and wants the Ukrainian army to change sides

I think its safe to say he's not all there

[Vegas Claret]

sanctions are biting and it isn't the walk in the park Putin thought it would be - those two things give Ukraine and the West far more power than it had 2 days ago

[RicardoMontalban]

Putin is ranting on TV about Nazis in charge in K'yiv and wants the Ukrainian army to change sides

I think its safe to say he's not all there

Neo-nazis and drug users apparently. He’s gonna flip when he finds out that Zelensky is Jewish.

[Lancasterclaret]

Neo-nazis and drug users apparently. He’s gonna flip when he finds out that Zelensky is Jewish.

This is really serious if he's genuinely unhinged

A madman with no control over his power, with nuclear weapons and a huge looming economic crisis

They have also threatened Sweden and Finland if they join NATO within the last hour

[Hibsclaret]

sanctions are biting and it isn't the walk in the park Putin thought it would be - those two things give Ukraine and the West far more power than it had 2 days ago

Sanctions are biting…really. Sanctions are doing literally nothing.

[Vegas Claret]

time to break out the Area 51 stuff

[Vegas Claret]

Sanctions are biting…really. Sanctions are doing literally nothing.

you aren't paying attention then, the US shutting out Russia's two biggest banks from international dollar clearing is a gigantic move.

[Hibsclaret]

That threat on Sweden and Finland is very worrying. More and more parallels with ww2

[Hibsclaret]

Not paying attention. It took Biden a full 12 hours plus to respond and then he was over an hour late to his press conference. The US have done nothing.

[Hibsclaret]

I think Putin needs to bomb Pearl Harbour in order for the US to wake up…again

[KateR]

sanctions are biting and it isn't the walk in the park Putin thought it would be - those two things give Ukraine and the West far more power than it had 2 days ago

I doubt he even knows what sanctions are in place or what effect they have, it's 2 days and he's fixated on one thing, the west are just an annoyance at the moment, let them weep and tear their hair out, it changes nothing.

[KateR]

you aren't paying attention then, the US shutting out Russia's two biggest banks from international dollar clearing is a gigantic move.

No it's not, they been working with China and their currency and clearing, crypto currency is an easy way to avoid this move, and it's actually faster and cheaper than using traditional clearing banks, little to no effect in my opinion.

[Vegas Claret]

Not paying attention. It took Biden a full 12 hours plus to respond and then he was over an hour late to his press conference. The US have done nothing.

you are so wide of the mark it's embarrassing

[Vegas Claret]

...

[Hibsclaret]

That press conference with Biden yesterday was beyond embarrassing. It made some of the classic Trump ones look almost professional. Biden is too old and absolutely not cut out to deal with a world war as leader of the biggest superpower. Putin knows this and is taking full advantage. He has just been sniping at the US like a madman again.

[Vegas Claret]

No it's not, they been working with China and their currency and clearing, crypto currency is an easy way to avoid this move, and it's actually faster and cheaper than using traditional clearing banks, little to no effect in my opinion.

great, I disagree, that's my opinion

[Hibsclaret]

you are so wide of the mark it's embarrassing

The irony. All talk and no action. The American way.

[Lancasterclaret]

Not paying attention. It took Biden a full 12 hours plus to respond and then he was over an hour late to his press conference. The US have done nothing.

There is a lot of stuff flying around, chiefly from people who back the former, very compromised President

US sanctions are the strongest, and they have basically got their allies in the Pacific regions (Japan, Singapore, Australia) to replicate them

That is far more than the EU (good, but not enough) and us (good, but bizarrely and worryingly not targeting enough of the oligarchs) have managed

He's been spot on so far, and he's sent another 7,00o troops to Europe

Plus I would not be surprised if a lot more US units, specifically the armoured cavalry ones, are now on full stand by for deployment to NATO