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Relegation odds.
Posted: Fri Apr 01, 2022 5:21 pm
by daveyclaret
I was at the Bookies this afternoon putting my bet on the Saturday Long List football. While I was there, I fancied a £50 flutter on Claret's staying so I asked the Bookie what were Claret's relegation odds. I was told that Clarets are 4/7 to go down and 5/4 to stay up. The staying up odds are pretty stingy given the Claret's current position and their form this season. At 5/4, I was told that the return for a £50 bet would be £112 which is just over double the original bet. I didn't take the 5/4 as I'm thinking that these odds will lengthen after after City have beaten Clarets tomorrow and after the weekend results of the other relegation contenders. I'll check the staying up odds next week before the home game with Everton and, as I'm optimistic, then look to put £50 on Clarets staying up..
Re: Relegation odds.
Posted: Fri Apr 01, 2022 5:26 pm
by MACCA
What a waste of £50, and them odds are terrible.
Re: Relegation odds.
Posted: Fri Apr 01, 2022 5:39 pm
by Burnley1989
I’d have had us at like 3/1 to stay up, bookies always win though so those odds don’t surprise me
Re: Relegation odds.
Posted: Fri Apr 01, 2022 9:49 pm
by Tall Paul
daveyclaret wrote: ↑Fri Apr 01, 2022 5:21 pm
I was at the Bookies this afternoon putting my bet on the Saturday Long List football. While I was there, I fancied a £50 flutter on Claret's staying so I asked the Bookie what were Claret's relegation odds. I was told that Clarets are 4/7 to go down and 5/4 to stay up. The staying up odds are pretty stingy given the Claret's current position and their form this season. At 5/4, I was told that the return for a £50 bet would be £112 which is just over double the original bet. I didn't take the 5/4 as I'm thinking that these odds will lengthen after after City have beaten Clarets tomorrow and after the weekend results of the other relegation contenders. I'll check the staying up odds next week before the home game with Everton and, as I'm optimistic, then look to put £50 on Clarets staying up..
Losing to Man City won't move the odds at all.
Re: Relegation odds.
Posted: Fri Apr 01, 2022 9:54 pm
by Tall Paul
Burnley1989 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 01, 2022 5:39 pm
I’d have had us at like 3/1 to stay up, bookies always win though so those odds don’t surprise me
If you give us a 25% chance of staying up, bookies odds of 4/7 to be relegated should be free money then as it represents 64%.
Re: Relegation odds.
Posted: Fri Apr 01, 2022 10:00 pm
by paulatky
Burnley1989 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 01, 2022 5:39 pm
I’d have had us at like 3/1 to stay up, bookies always win though so those odds don’t surprise me
If you think 3/1 should be reasonable odds for us staying up then 4/7 to be relegated must be very good odds in your opinion
Re: Relegation odds.
Posted: Fri Apr 01, 2022 10:05 pm
by Devils_Advocate
The bookies obviously think that accepting bets for Burnley to stay up is printing money and who can blame them. If you wanna back Burnley staying up then fill your boots but just be realistic and accept that you are pretty much taking a punt
Re: Relegation odds.
Posted: Fri Apr 01, 2022 10:06 pm
by Jakubclaret
Tall Paul wrote: ↑Fri Apr 01, 2022 9:49 pm
Losing to Man City won't move the odds at all.
So if I go on to the relegation odds checkers & have a look now & if we lose to Man City things will still be the same. It’ll be judged on 1 game less not that anybody expects us to get anything they’ll be a slight shift especially if the others pick up.
Re: Relegation odds.
Posted: Fri Apr 01, 2022 10:12 pm
by BurnleyFC
If you put 50 quid on us to stay up you’ll lose 50 quid.
You might as well give it to charity.
Re: Relegation odds.
Posted: Fri Apr 01, 2022 10:14 pm
by Milltown1882
Jakubclaret wrote: ↑Fri Apr 01, 2022 10:06 pm
So if I go on to the relegation odds checkers & have a look now & if we lose to Man City things will still be the same. It’ll be judged on 1 game less not that anybody expects us to get anything they’ll be a slight shift especially if the others pick up.
Brentford, Leeds and Norwich all play at the same time as us tomorrow. There’s a lot more variables than just ‘it’ll stay the same’.
Re: Relegation odds.
Posted: Fri Apr 01, 2022 10:24 pm
by Tall Paul
BurnleyFC wrote: ↑Fri Apr 01, 2022 10:12 pm
If you put 50 quid on us to stay up you’ll lose 50 quid.
You might as well give it to charity.
So you think there's a 100% chance that we're relegated? How much have you got on it at 4/7?
Re: Relegation odds.
Posted: Fri Apr 01, 2022 10:27 pm
by Jakubclaret
Milltown1882 wrote: ↑Fri Apr 01, 2022 10:14 pm
Brentford, Leeds and Norwich all play at the same time as us tomorrow. There’s a lot more variables than just ‘it’ll stay the same’.
I’ll screenshot the odds now & permutations going against us (no reason why some couldn’t possibly) & losing to Man City things won’t remain the same as somebody was suggesting odds wise, just because nobody (us lot) expects us to get anything Ladbrokes & the eagle eyed analysts at William hill etc (won’t be sure) the markets will shift considerably if Leeds & Norwich & Watford all win & we lose. Man City is a must win game every game is as I said about a dozen games ago until houseboy corrected me in the most technical sense & lo & behold we are where we are exactly as I predicted,
Re: Relegation odds.
Posted: Fri Apr 01, 2022 10:29 pm
by Tall Paul
Our odds probably won't be the same on Saturday evening, but it'll be Leeds' and Brentford's results that affect them not a loss against Man City.
Re: Relegation odds.
Posted: Fri Apr 01, 2022 10:29 pm
by Devils_Advocate
Tall Paul wrote: ↑Fri Apr 01, 2022 10:24 pm
So you think there's a 100% chance that we're relegated? How much have you got on it at 4/7?
If someone offered you a £50 wager whether Burnley would stay up or go down Im guessing you would back us to go down. Is that right or would you back us to stay up on a straight £50 wager?
Re: Relegation odds.
Posted: Fri Apr 01, 2022 10:31 pm
by Tall Paul
Devils_Advocate wrote: ↑Fri Apr 01, 2022 10:29 pm
If someone offered you a £50 wager whether Burnley would stay up or go down Im guessing you would back us to go down. Is that right or would you back us to stay up on a straight £50 wager?
Yes, I'd back us to go down if you offered me evens. I'd expect to lose that £50 around 40% of the time though.
Re: Relegation odds.
Posted: Fri Apr 01, 2022 10:34 pm
by Jakubclaret
Tall Paul wrote: ↑Fri Apr 01, 2022 10:29 pm
Our odds probably won't be the same on Saturday evening, but it'll be Leeds' and Brentford's results that affect them not a loss against Man City.
So the bookies don’t factor games gone without any point accrued & the less likelihood of points being recovered, no wonder this cutsy/other alias bloke played a blinder.
Re: Relegation odds.
Posted: Fri Apr 01, 2022 10:44 pm
by Devils_Advocate
Jakubclaret wrote: ↑Fri Apr 01, 2022 10:34 pm
So the bookies don’t factor games gone without any point accrued & the less likelihood of points being recovered, no wonder this cutsy/other alias bloke played a blinder.
To be fair the correct point TP is making is that its pretty much certain we'll get beat off City but how Leeds, Everton & Watford do this weekend will be what really effects our chances/odds of staying up
Re: Relegation odds.
Posted: Fri Apr 01, 2022 10:49 pm
by Jakubclaret
Devils_Advocate wrote: ↑Fri Apr 01, 2022 10:44 pm
To be fair the correct point TP is making is that its pretty much certain we'll get beat off City but how Leeds, Everton & Watford do this weekend will be what really effects our chances/odds of staying up
The bookies won’t think that way nobody thought palace would beat them & that’s away, it’s no good writing the team off listening to nick pope on radio lancs earlier he said it’s not a result to be handed over if the fans have given up that’s not a good sign.
Re: Relegation odds.
Posted: Fri Apr 01, 2022 10:55 pm
by BurnleyFC
Tall Paul wrote: ↑Fri Apr 01, 2022 10:24 pm
So you think there's a 100% chance that we're relegated? How much have you got on it at 4/7?
Of course there’s not a 100% chance we’ll be relegated.
It doesn’t alter the fact that we will be, though.
Re: Relegation odds.
Posted: Fri Apr 01, 2022 11:02 pm
by Devils_Advocate
Jakubclaret wrote: ↑Fri Apr 01, 2022 10:49 pm
The bookies won’t think that way nobody thought palace would beat them & that’s away, it’s no good writing the team off listening to nick pope on radio lancs earlier he said it’s not a result to be handed over if the fans have given up that’s not a good sign.
You seem to be struggling with very basic concepts so I'll try to dumb it down for you
Scenario 1: Man City beat Burnley and Watford, Everton and Leeds all win
Scenario 2: Man City beat Burnley and Watford, Everton and Leeds all ;ose
According to you the relegation odds for Burnley is the same for both scenario 1 and scenario 2. For the rest of us who have a reasonable level of intelligence we can see that the Everton, Watford and Leeds results have a direct and substantial impact on the chances/odds that Burnley get relegated or staying up
Re: Relegation odds.
Posted: Fri Apr 01, 2022 11:10 pm
by Jakubclaret
Devils_Advocate wrote: ↑Fri Apr 01, 2022 11:02 pm
You seem to be struggling with very basic concepts so I'll try to dumb it down for you
Scenario 1: Man City beat Burnley and Watford, Everton and Leeds all win
Scenario 2: Man City beat Burnley and Watford, Everton and Leeds all ;ose
According to you the relegation odds for Burnley is the same for both scenario 1 and scenario 2. For the rest of us who have a reasonable level of intelligence we can see that the Everton, Watford and Leeds results have a direct and substantial impact on the chances/odds that Burnley get relegated or staying up
No I’m suggesting regardless of other results if we lose to Man City we’ve 1 less game to pull ourselves out of the poo irrespective of any other factors, buying lottery tickets the more tickets you have means more chance of winning less tickets less chance. Every single game we have left & more importantly results achieved from the games left maximises our points thus chances of success. The bookie will consider our points total & the potential points total.
Re: Relegation odds.
Posted: Fri Apr 01, 2022 11:22 pm
by Jakubclaret
If the odds remained the same & we had 11 games left with a potential 33pts but had a game in hand on the rest of the pack but lost a game & could only achieve 30pts with 10 left, do you think the bookies would discount that when we’ve narrowed & minimised our potential points total. The fact that the potential achievement is shorter can’t be ignored.
Re: Relegation odds.
Posted: Fri Apr 01, 2022 11:22 pm
by Devils_Advocate
Jakubclaret wrote: ↑Fri Apr 01, 2022 11:10 pm
No I’m suggesting regardless of other results if we lose to Man City we’ve 1 less game to pull ourselves out of the poo irrespective of any other factors, buying lottery tickets the more tickets you have means more chance of winning less tickets less chance. Every single game we have left & more importantly results achieved from the games left maximises our points thus chances of success. The bookie will consider our points total & the potential points total.
You really dont do nuance and absolutely miss the basics. If Burnley draw against Man City and Everton, Leeds and Watford win we are in a a far better position than if Burnley lose to City and Everton, Leeds and Watford lose.
If you really cant see that our chances of staying up is as much impacted by others results than it is our own then I suggest you focus your mind on something simple that you are able to cope with
Re: Relegation odds.
Posted: Fri Apr 01, 2022 11:27 pm
by Devils_Advocate
Jakubclaret wrote: ↑Fri Apr 01, 2022 11:22 pm
If the odds remained the same & we had 11 games left with a potential 33pts but had a game in hand on the rest of the pack but lost a game & could only achieve 30pts with 10 left, do you think the bookies would discount that when we’ve narrowed & minimised our potential points total. The fact that the potential achievement is shorter can’t be ignored.
You really dont do nuance and absolutely miss the basics. If Burnley draw against Man City and Everton, Leeds and Watford win we are in a a far
worse position than if Burnley lose to City and Everton, Leeds and Watford lose.
If you really cant see that our chances of staying up is as much impacted by others results than it is our own then I suggest you focus your mind on something simple that you are able to cope with
Re: Relegation odds.
Posted: Fri Apr 01, 2022 11:28 pm
by Jakubclaret
Devils_Advocate wrote: ↑Fri Apr 01, 2022 11:22 pm
You really dont do nuance and absolutely miss the basics. If Burnley draw against Man City and Everton, Leeds and Watford win we are in a a far better position than if Burnley lose to City and Everton, Leeds and Watford lose.
If you really cant see that our chances of staying up is as much impacted by others results than it is our own then I suggest you focus your mind on something simple that you are able to cope with
I’m focussing solely on a potential points tally irrespective of anything else, you are looking at the other variables & determining a picture based upon that, if you think bookies don’t factor in games gone without points accrued & the less likelihood of points being recovered based upon that, I don’t know what else to say apart from do you fancy like a bet & I’ll invite your mate TP to a wager as well?
Re: Relegation odds.
Posted: Fri Apr 01, 2022 11:35 pm
by Devils_Advocate
Jakubclaret wrote: ↑Fri Apr 01, 2022 11:28 pm
I’m focussing solely on a potential points tally irrespective of anything else, you are looking at the other variables & determining a picture based upon that, if you think bookies don’t factor in games gone without points accrued & the less likelihood of points being recovered based upon that, I don’t know what else to say apart from do you fancy like a bet & I’ll invite your mate TP to a wager as well?
Bookies factor in everything. Its no use being able to get to 40 points if the team above you is already on 39 points compared to being able to get to 36 points if the team above you is only on 32 points.
Give me a shout if you ever open a bookies cos you dont often get a chance to win free money and I'd hate to miss out
Re: Relegation odds.
Posted: Fri Apr 01, 2022 11:46 pm
by Jakubclaret
Devils_Advocate wrote: ↑Fri Apr 01, 2022 11:35 pm
Bookies factor in everything. Its no use being able to get to 40 points if the team above you is already on 39 points compared to being able to get to 36 points if the team above you is only on 32 points.
Give me a shout if you ever open a bookies cos you dont often get a chance to win free money and I'd hate to miss out
It’s what we could potentially fashion ourselves regardless, if all the other relegation threatened teams (say 3 teams) started on 30pts tomorrow with 5 games left but no teams played tomorrow apart from us we lost with 4 left the odds would adjust accordingly, because the other 3 could potentially achieve 15pts not playing each other & we could only achieve 12pts. You can’t just play a game even when expected to lose & not expect the odds to change when you do lose because the potential points total won’t be as high when tbe games gone.
Re: Relegation odds.
Posted: Sat Apr 02, 2022 8:14 am
by willsclarets
I'd want 10/1 to make that bet
Re: Relegation odds.
Posted: Sat Apr 02, 2022 8:24 am
by dandeclaret
Jakubclaret wrote: ↑Fri Apr 01, 2022 10:49 pm
The bookies won’t think that way nobody thought palace would beat them & that’s away, it’s no good writing the team off listening to nick pope on radio lancs earlier he said it’s not a result to be handed over if the fans have given up that’s not a good sign.
If only there was a way to tell how the bookies are thinking…… sort of like them thinking there’s an 85% chance of Manchester City winning today, or something like that.
Re: Relegation odds.
Posted: Sat Apr 02, 2022 8:27 am
by dandeclaret
willsclarets wrote: ↑Sat Apr 02, 2022 8:14 am
I'd want 10/1 to make that bet
Then you should swallow your pride, beg borrow and steal everything you can and have it on relegation, because the odds of 4/7 are free money. You’ve just found a 46% hole in the market.
Re: Relegation odds.
Posted: Sat Apr 02, 2022 8:28 am
by dandeclaret
Devils_Advocate wrote: ↑Fri Apr 01, 2022 11:35 pm
Bookies factor in everything. Its no use being able to get to 40 points if the team above you is already on 39 points compared to being able to get to 36 points if the team above you is only on 32 points.
Give me a shout if you ever open a bookies cos you dont often get a chance to win free money and I'd hate to miss out
And I’d like account number 2 please, plus all my mates would like to sign up. We’ll even do it without any sign up bonus.
Re: Relegation odds.
Posted: Sat Apr 02, 2022 8:31 am
by Newcastleclaret93
dandeclaret wrote: ↑Sat Apr 02, 2022 8:27 am
Then you should swallow your pride, beg borrow and steal everything you can and have it on relegation, because the odds of 4/7 are free money. You’ve just found a 46% hole in the market.
Posters were saying the same thing when we were 2-1 to be relegated after the newcastle game.
Re: Relegation odds.
Posted: Sat Apr 02, 2022 8:46 am
by dandeclaret
Newcastleclaret93 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 02, 2022 8:31 am
Posters were saying the same thing when we were 2-1 to be relegated after the newcastle game.
Well… yes….. if you assess a situation to be more or less likely of happening than the bookies odds dictate, then you should take advantage of it. If you found Petrol for a quid a litre now what would you do?
Re: Relegation odds.
Posted: Sat Apr 02, 2022 8:46 am
by Jakubclaret
dandeclaret wrote: ↑Sat Apr 02, 2022 8:24 am
If only there was a way to tell how the bookies are thinking…… sort of like them thinking there’s an 85% chance of Manchester City winning today, or something like that.
The point I was trying to get across is that whoever we are playing & how slim the chances are of accruing points is that games which have passed/expired are accountable when calculating odds in a post/after sense.
Re: Relegation odds.
Posted: Sat Apr 02, 2022 8:52 am
by dandeclaret
Jakubclaret wrote: ↑Sat Apr 02, 2022 8:46 am
The point I was trying to get across is that whoever we are playing & how slim the chances are of accruing points is that games which have passed/expired are accountable when calculating odds in a post/after sense.
In an approximately 43 event calculation, how much do you think a single event, given an 85% likelihood of happening, actually happening will affect the odds?
Enough to create a price change? Bearing in mind that the next price available to bookmakers from 4/7 is 8/15 reflecting an approximately 4% change in the overall likelihood of an event happening.
So does Burnley losing today, change their overall chance of relegation by at least 4%?
The only likely price change today given expected outcomes is if Burnley win, as that would increase their chances of staying up by greater than the next price tick (8/13), or events in other games where the percentage changes of a likely event aren’t as strong.
Re: Relegation odds.
Posted: Sat Apr 02, 2022 9:08 am
by Tall Paul
You're wasting your time Dan.
BurnleyFC wrote: ↑Fri Apr 01, 2022 10:55 pm
Of course there’s not a 100% chance we’ll be relegated.
It doesn’t alter the fact that we will be, though.
I don't think you know what a fact is
Re: Relegation odds.
Posted: Sat Apr 02, 2022 9:16 am
by claretandy
You have to take into consideration the amount of money bookies are exposed to, there will be more money on Leeds and Newcastle to stay up as they have more fans than smaller clubs.
Re: Relegation odds.
Posted: Sat Apr 02, 2022 9:24 am
by dandeclaret
I would say the amount of “loyalty” money on a market like this regularly won’t affect the exposure too much. Relegation betting doesn’t tend to draw too much loyalty money. Fans don’t like betting on their clubs to be relegated, and there’s not many setting out at the start of the season to have their stay up bets, especially fans of clubs like Newcastle and Leeds.
League winner markets, top scorer, World Cup markets etc are heavily loyalty money influenced though.
Re: Relegation odds.
Posted: Sat Apr 02, 2022 10:18 am
by claretandy
dandeclaret wrote: ↑Sat Apr 02, 2022 9:24 am
I would say the amount of “loyalty” money on a market like this regularly won’t affect the exposure too much. Relegation betting doesn’t tend to draw too much loyalty money. Fans don’t like betting on their clubs to be relegated, and there’s not many setting out at the start of the season to have their stay up bets, especially fans of clubs like Newcastle and Leeds.
League winner markets, top scorer, World Cup markets etc are heavily loyalty money influenced though.
But if more Newcastle and Leeds fans are betting on us Norwich and Watford to go down instead of them, then weight of money does skew the market.
Re: Relegation odds.
Posted: Sat Apr 02, 2022 10:19 am
by dandeclaret
claretandy wrote: ↑Sat Apr 02, 2022 10:18 am
But if more Newcastle and Leeds fans are betting on us Norwich and Watford to go down instead of them, then weight of money does skew the market.
That’s not the evidence we see at the bookmaker businesses I work for. Relegation isn’t a huge betting market.
Re: Relegation odds.
Posted: Sat Apr 02, 2022 10:35 am
by claretandy
dandeclaret wrote: ↑Sat Apr 02, 2022 10:19 am
That’s not the evidence we see at the bookmaker businesses I work for. Relegation isn’t a huge betting market.
We are usually favourites to go down at the beginning of most seasons, even when we have done well, our odds are shorter than bigger clubs who are lower down than us, how do you explain that ?
Re: Relegation odds.
Posted: Sat Apr 02, 2022 10:51 am
by dandeclaret
Odds are based on expected performance. Burnley have for many years performed above expected levels. Each year, the slate is reset, and the models will throw out expected performance with all factors thrown in.
Re: Relegation odds.
Posted: Sat Apr 02, 2022 11:04 am
by willsclarets
dandeclaret wrote: ↑Sat Apr 02, 2022 8:27 am
Then you should swallow your pride, beg borrow and steal everything you can and have it on relegation, because the odds of 4/7 are free money. You’ve just found a 46% hole in the market.
Neither side of that bet represents any value to me at those odds. I think it's really unlikely we survive, but the risk reward on 4/7 means any stake would have to be massive to be worthwhile. I don't throw a huge amount at gambling over a long period, not trying to find an edge.
Re: Relegation odds.
Posted: Sat Apr 02, 2022 11:26 am
by Newcastleclaret93
Best odds of the weekend have to got to be paddy powers offer on Salah.
Salah to have one shot on target 1-1
Re: Relegation odds.
Posted: Sat Apr 02, 2022 11:32 am
by Bordeauxclaret
Newcastleclaret93 wrote: ↑Sat Apr 02, 2022 11:26 am
Best odds of the weekend have to got to be paddy powers offer on Salah.
Salah to have one shot on target 1-1
As do Skybet