Like many others I've been looking at the EPL Table trying to envisage how the season might play out and what are our chances of survival are this season. Came up with the following formula based upon the BBC current league table. 1. Take the average current league positions of the opponents for the remaining fixtures 2. Multiply this by current form over last 5 games. 3. add goal difference.

Burnley = (12.6 *10) + (-16) = 110
Leeds = (6.2* 11) + (-30) = 38.2
Everton = (9.7*04) + (-21) = 17.8
Watford = (12.4*03) + (-36) = 1.2
Norwich = (9.0*4) + (-47) = -11

A combination of the difficulty of the remaining opponents, current form and season long goal difference. The larger the number - the better the outcome? I really should get out more. COYC

1 - That we have started to win games and show a bit of resilience and determination to play football.

2 - We have the better run in on paper

3 - That we have players who are up for a fight

4 - That we have 2 winnable home games with a full and rocking turf moor.

Good but perhaps no cigar.

Is the current form over the last 5 games that of the opponents? Because we have 10 points and there is no correlation between an opponents league position and our form.

In reality, you would have to work out the form of each of the 5/6 opponents (of our opponents) and then multiply that by their league position.

Of course, the problem then is the better the form the higher the points so you would have to find some of representing poor form as a higher number.

Perhaps, you need to stay in more.

We've finally found a way to win games now.

The players are enjoying their football.

We've finally climbed out of the bottom 3.

Jackson seems to got the squad motivated and playing for one another.

tiger76 wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 27, 2022 9:42 am

We've finally found a way to win games now.

The players are enjoying their football.

We've finally climbed out of the bottom 3.

Jackson seems to got the squad motivated and playing for one another.

I think at some point that ‘bounce’ is going to fall flat and we will get undone, I think I’m the first Villa game. I do also think we will have enough to repurpose and get going again.

We have 20 points from our last 16 games. 17 points from the last 12. That's 1.25 or 1.4 points per game.
Everton have 11 points from their last 15 games. That 0.7 points per game.

In our last 5 games we've picked up 10 points (2.0), Everton have 4 (0.8)

Their overall season form is 0.9 points per game, ours is only 0.93 but it was only 0.65 for the first 17 games of the season.

Our recent form is improved, Everton's is worse.

Whichever way you look at it our form is better than theirs BUT they still have a game in hand and 18 points to play for and as Sean Dyche used to say, the last one doesn't guarantee the next one.

We need to go and get at least a point from Watford to keep Everton in the bottom 3.

We have rediscovered winning, defending, and enjoying our football
Tactics are vastly improved
Use of substitutions is the best its been for a very long time
The players are playing as a unit and look galvanised
From a certainty of relegations, we now have a chance
Our run in of games could be a lot worse

I think the collapse in interest as teams become safe/can't get into Europe is going to have a huge effect

We just need to keep collecting points and putting the pressure on both Leeds and Everton

Win on Saturday, and that puts all the pressure on those two sides

Lose, and the pressure is back on us

Recent form counts for little. All that matters is what happens next.

For instance, if the OP calculation had been performed 5 games ago it would be very different

That all said we have momentum, can we keep it going for a couple more games

Fans and players alike are enjoying their football again.

There's been a few grounding remarks in the afters of the recent run, which are fair enough.

Whether performances have been better or not, results have improved and the desire to work for them has been evident.

We helped with the momentum, and continuing that might just haul us over the line.

A bit less nay-saying and a bit more getting behind them is required.

Be positive folks.

Down_Rover wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 27, 2022 10:05 am

Recent form counts for little. All that matters is what happens next.

For instance, if the OP calculation had been performed 5 games ago it would be very different

That all said we have momentum, can we keep it going for a couple more games

I think recent form is important.

We have put a run together at the perfect time. We need to keep it going for the next five games, of course but I'd rather be going into the crucial final games with our form than Everton's.

We have points in the bag over Everton and Leeds next 3 games are not ideal for them. I really think so much depends on our next match. Not just because they play in yellow but I really do see the Watford game as a potential banana skin. A win will hopefully see us above Leeds and at least 4 points clear of Everton and keep our positivity and momentum going, whilst a draw wouldn't be the end of the world a loss could knock the wind out of our sails and derail us. Last time I expected a win against Norwich and the other teams to drop points, the exact opposite happened so I'll keep my thoughts to myself this time and think positively.

Getting bent over at Norwich may yet prove to be our best result of the season.

Notwithstanding the very accurate points made, this thread could age very badly at 5pm Saturday.

We’re behind Leeds and only ahead of Everton by two points with them holding a game in hand. Their run ins may look tougher on paper but this is a part of the season where strange results are thrown out, with some teams on the beach, complacency, and the chasing pack battling for their lives. It means nothing.

This weekend is crucial and so far we’ve failed to capitalise in these kind of games against the teams around us. Watford also have some very capable players - more so than Norwich, I’d say, who undid us with a lucky one and then capitalising on our overcommitting in search of an equaliser - so cannot be underestimated at all.

We just need to focus on one game at a time & getting results.

We sometimes forget about the form of our opponents. Norwich have scored a few recently and West Ham look to be concentrating on Europe. Thankfully Watford have slipped a little again recently and coupled with our own resurgent form I think we have a great chance of not losing there. In fact I think we will win.

1) Attitude of players and supporters has changed. There is now more positivity from the players. You could see the way Wout stayed on the pitch and absorbed the atmosphere after the Wolves game. Also the footage from the tunnel at the end of the game.

2) Momentum, at this time of the season, having positive momentum is huge.

3) Being outside the relegation zone is a huge lift to the players.

4) Breaking through 30 points, big psychological boost for the players as well.

All can change quickly though but I'm positive we will survive.

Just a few positives about some of the players. No intention of balancing it with any negatives.
Nick Pope, much more comfortable on the ball. Looks to throw at any opportunity. 2 great long passes.
Connor Roberts, seems more included in the forward play. Allowed to drift inside. Allowed some wing back positioning.
Charlie Taylor, Still making deep, powerful runs beyond their full back.
James Tarkowski, organising. Positive actions. Reading the game well when we seem outnumbered.
Nathan Collins, Confident, making good choices. Dangerous for us at set pieces.
Jack Cork, pacing himself better and covering the runs of others.
Josh Brownhill, decisive on the ball, works hard to retrieve lost possession. Recovering quicker.
Dwight McNeill, head up. Making more positive runs. Looking to shoot.Gets right back at it when something goes wrong.
Maxwel Cornet, continuing his improvement since AFCON. Covering more ground.
Jay Rodriguez, looking more dangerous in forward positions. Playing well in tight spaces. Finding space up front.
Wout Weghorst, works tremendously hard all game. Ties things together in midfield and up front. Will create and score.
Matej Vydra, keeping his head up. Goes again. Scored, will score again. Creates. Creates space.

Look at the form of each team. Aston Villa catchable?

Looking at each sides run in from the opposite angle. If we have the easier? run in it is because we have already played the tougher? opponents that Everton and Leeds have coming up and yet we are still with them.
The one defeat in 5, from the table posted above was at Norwich, where I’m still convinced we would have gone on to win if Max hadn’t missed that sitter.

We can only focus on ourselves. Reasons to be optimistic:
-Watford in theory is a game we should win. Start of the season you'd always back us.
-Villa are wildly inconsistent, playing them twice in quick succession isn't ideal but they're so erratic that we can get something, and even losing the first one wouldn't mean we can't win the second.
-Spurs have dropped a few clangers and we've beaten them already, albeit under different management to now but still won.
-Newcastle will have nothing to play for doubly so as many of the team likely fear being replaced in the summer.

Blakesboots wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 27, 2022 9:53 am

I think at some point that ‘bounce’ is going to fall flat and we will get undone, I think I’m the first Villa game. I do also think we will have enough to repurpose and get going again.

And that's when Pace will bring in his new manager and another 'bounce' will occur!!!

LoveCurryPies wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 27, 2022 1:07 pm

Look at the form of each team. Aston Villa catchable?

Yes Leeds looking good and so are we -albeit in a more perilous position than Leeds. Looks the Gerrard 'bounce' has gone flat.

Out of the bottom 3 for first time since Brentford game.
It appears that there is a team spirit at the club where all staff (on and off pitch) are working as one so that we stay in the Prem.
Dwight McNeil playing on the right hand side, looks a different player from previous months.
A manager who looks like he can make substitutions at the right time.
Momentum.
The players are managing the situation and taking control of their destinies more than at any other time in the season.

Still think there is a lot to do yet, but we have more of a chance of staying up compared to this time last week.

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 27, 2022 10:03 am

I think the collapse in interest as teams become safe/can't get into Europe is going to have a huge effect

We just need to keep collecting points and putting the pressure on both Leeds and Everton

Win on Saturday, and that puts all the pressure on those two sides

Lose, and the pressure is back on us

Both Everton and Leeds have fixtures against squads with a lot to play for...

Everton have both Chelsea and Arsenal, who are playing for Champions league spots... and with Arsenal the last day, they might need 3 to stay in the top 4.

Leeds have arsenal, chelsea and man city, all wanting to secure their spots.

A win Saturday for us puts us in the driving positon.

There is every reason to be positive, but the main worry for me is the current frailty of the bench.

Gudmundsson, Westwood, Pieters, Mee all out for the remaining games. Cornet and Rodriguez carrying injuries and the fringe players Stephens, Bardsley, Long and Barnes with little or no match sharpness.

That’s 10 players missing or under cooked, so we are very reliant on the current 11 plus Lennon and Lowton. Let’s hope and pray for no more injuries or a sending off.

Well - I have just got back in from the allotment (I didn't take ClaretPete001's advice to "stay in more") and have read through the interesting and varied comments. I guess I was trying to take a light-hearted view of things - but not in a descriptive manner - more trying to put a (semi) quantitative view on the current situation. Leeds (score 38.2) - was better than I had imagined - given lots of comments about their difficult run-in. However, using 'current form' (last 5 games) as a multiplier this tends to emphasise 'current form' . This in turn made me think about 1) is there a new manager 'bounce' and how long does it/will it last? All the bottom 5 clubs have changed manger this season - and BFC were the last to do it. Could this mean that the positive effect will last longest for BFC?? 2. Like some other posters -it got me thinking about Aston Villa too - they score 11.4 using the formula in the OP. Recall - BFC 110, Leeds 38.2, Everton 17.8, AV 11.4, Watford 1.2 and Norwich -11. Food for thought.

Watford's last ten home fixtures:

The trouble is, Spijed, that records like that are bound to be broken sometime.

Spijed wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 27, 2022 7:17 pm

Watford's last ten home fixtures:

You’ve done it now!!!!

Blakesboots wrote: ↑

Wed Apr 27, 2022 9:53 am

I think at some point that ‘bounce’ is going to fall flat and we will get undone, I think I’m the first Villa game. I do also think we will have enough to repurpose and get going again.

Not sure how that works, why would we fall flat?

Bump.

3 wins on the spin now.

Fought back from a goal down to snatch a late win.

Midfield now contributing goals (something which we've lacked for ages)

Barnes got a good half hour on Saturday, and put himself about, we'll need more of that fighting spirit in the next 4 games.

Winnable home game v Villa, which if we win will ramp up the pressure on Everton & Leeds.

Full week to prepare for Villa, and hopefully get some injured players back in the fold.