Up at this ungodly hour, I have gone back over the last 30 years of the Championship and researched the number of points required to finish as Runners-up ( note : NOT the number the Runners up got, but the points needed to finish 1 point above third ).

Since the 1992-93, season the average is 83.6 points, 84 in reality ... To look at the extremes, in 1993-94, Forest finished on 83 points but nine points clear of Millwall, on 74 points, so they'd only have needed 75 points. In contrast, in 1997-98, Sunderland finished on 90 points in finishing 3rd, with a Goal Difference of +36, and then lost out to Charlton in the Play-Offs. In any other season over the last 30 years, they'd have been automatically promoted !!

To summarise, any side who's averaged 2 points a game over the last 30 years in the 2nd Tier, has gone up automatically. To do that, we need 23 points from the remaining 15 games. Even if we average a point a game from here on in, we'll hit 84 points, and to match that 'Boro would have to have a record of W9, D3, L2 from their remaining 14 games ...

I think we'll be OK ....

Like I've said on another thread, mathematically we're already promoted so you have nothing to worry about.

Magic numbers tell you all you need to know

I was gutted to read this morning that we only have six home games left. Only six more games of this phenomenal season to enjoy.

Rileybobs wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 17, 2023 11:24 am

Like I've said on another thread, mathematically we're already promoted so you have nothing to worry about.

How are we mathematically promoted when two or more teams can still finish above us? I am pretty sure we will go up but it’s not mathematical until no other outcomes are possible surely!

DHClaret wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 17, 2023 11:51 am

How are we mathematically promoted when two or more teams can still finish above us? I am pretty sure we will go up but it’s not mathematical until no other outcomes are possible surely!

Pleeeeaaase go and argue that with him on the other thread…

Next Tuesday, Feb 21 - that’s the evening to count chickens. We will only have two teams to play who are in proximity in the table after that

If he had said ‘I have done a statistical analysis of the previous 25 seasons and there is a 97.2% chance we will be promoted’ I could have accepted it

DHClaret wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 17, 2023 11:51 am

How are we mathematically promoted when two or more teams can still finish above us? I am pretty sure we will go up but it’s not mathematical until no other outcomes are possible surely!

Simple. I’ve considered every possible outcome between now and the end of the season and they all result in us being promoted. It’s just math, baby.

The way I see it is, that apart from ourselves, Sheffield United & now 'Boro, the other teams are very similar in terms of ability at least from 4th down to 16th, who are separated by 10 points or so. Add in the odd surprise result and the inevitable shock as the relegation threatened clubs battle to stay up and I can't see any of them putting together a serious challenge.

If it is Burnley, Sheffield United & Middlesborough who go up, then it's 3 " proper " Northern Clubs, which would please me ....

Rileybobs wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 17, 2023 12:20 pm

Simple. I’ve considered every possible outcome between now and the end of the season and they all result in us being promoted. It’s just math, baby.

No you haven’t

It's not over until the fat lady sings.
There's still a possibility that Boro' will go on the sort of
run of wins we recently recorded.
I mean who would have predicted we would go on a run of 10 wins and draw
11 games ago. Not many for sure.

So it's possible that Boro' might do the same.
Possible but not likely.

I'll feel a lot more positive if we can come away from the games at Luton and Millwall
with 3 or more points with Boro' still 15 or so points behind.

If so the lady will be tuning up.

Chill out guys we where promoted round about December last year,the plans for the Premier league will already be being made by the club as we speak
There simply isn't a club in this league to touch us,most of us know it but some are afraid it will jinx us....it won't
We are Premier league once again.

There isn't the slightest chance of us not being promoted.

Not the slightest. Relax.

ElectroClaret wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 17, 2023 2:49 pm

There isn't the slightest chance of us not being promoted.

Not the slightest. Relax.

err... no! Didn't you get the memo? Vinnie says we can't, and neither can the team! Even so, don't you kick every ball? I do - I can't relax

BBC appears to agree with me.

ElectroClaret wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 17, 2023 2:49 pm

There isn't the slightest chance of us not being promoted.

Not the slightest. Relax.

I am totally relaxed! Doesn’t mean that rileybobs understands what mathematically means though

I can't believe some folks are still worrying about whether we'll be promoted or not, teams don't claw back a 15 point deficit in the final 14 games.

Boro would have to win pretty much all their remaining fixtures, and Burnley would to completely implode, it ain't gonna happen not under Vinny's watch.

DHClaret wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 17, 2023 3:08 pm

I am totally relaxed! Doesn’t mean that rileybobs understands what mathematically means though

I know very well what 'mathematically' means. I've even used my scientific calculator to prove that we're mathematically up. When I input a scenario where we miss out on promotion I get the following
Sure looks mathematically assured to me.

Twenty odd years ago, Kevin Keegan's Newcastle United somehow blew a 12-point lead to finish second to Manchester United in the Premier League. It was among the most heart-breaking capitulations in the history of football.

I doubt very much we would do the same but ...

It could happen.

Bosscat wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 17, 2023 3:17 pm

Twenty odd years ago, Kevin Keegan's Newcastle United somehow blew a 12-point lead to finish second to Manchester United in the Premier League. It was among the most heart-breaking capitulations in the history of football.

I doubt very much we would do the same but ...

It could happen.

But they weren't mathematically champions.

Rileybobs wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 17, 2023 3:19 pm

But they weren't mathematically champions.

Very true

Bosscat wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 17, 2023 3:17 pm

Twenty odd years ago, Kevin Keegan's Newcastle United somehow blew a 12-point lead to finish second to Manchester United in the Premier League. It was among the most heart-breaking capitulations in the history of football.

I doubt very much we would do the same but ...

It could happen.

It won't Kevin Keegan dosent manage us

Bosscat wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 17, 2023 3:17 pm

Twenty odd years ago, Kevin Keegan's Newcastle United somehow blew a 12-point lead to finish second to Manchester United in the Premier League. It was among the most heart-breaking capitulations in the history of football.

I doubt very much we would do the same but ...

It could happen.

I can't see Paul Heckingbottom turning VK into a jibberinh wreck though

Muric Leggings wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 17, 2023 3:28 pm

It won't Kevin Keegan dosent manage us

"I would love it"
The funniest sport related interview, Keegan really was a bellend, would have loved to see Ferguson's face the first time he ever saw that,United won the league minutes after that interview without even playing

Well the bookies are vary rarely wrong.

Odds to win championship title

https://www.oddschecker.com/football/en ... e=coventry

And odds to get promoted 1/1000

If we win this weekend, and Cardiff lose and Blackpool and Huddersfield don't win we cannot be relegated (barring a points deduction).

We'll have 72 and the max that those three can get is 71 (they play each other too but I can't be bothered with those permutations).

Horay!

Clarets4me wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 17, 2023 12:23 pm

.
If it is Burnley, Sheffield United & Middlesborough who go up, then it's 3 " proper " Northern Clubs, which would please me ....

Southampton & Bournemouth relegated would save on a lot of travelling for Northern followers.

Tricky Trevor wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 17, 2023 5:06 pm

Southampton & Bournemouth relegated would save on a lot of travelling for Northern followers.

Reckon it's gonna be those 2 for a start that take the drop. Saints looking terrible.

Hopefully, they'll be accompanied by Leeds.

Thank goodness for that Hipper , we should be resting players in league games and concentrating on the cup

Coal no longer giving odds for promotion and 1/16 to be champions. Enough said

Some of us 'old hands' still have sad memories of 1961 season when we were leading the first Division ( 2 points for a win,) by some distance and on course for the 'double.' We then won only one more league game in the last ten fixtures and were overtaken by Ipswich to finish as runners up 3 points behind them. (All stats taken from memory as I cannot locate my relevant stats book.) We were fantastic for the first 30 games . scoring over 100 goals and there was possibly some impact from the bribery scandal, although I cannot recall the exact details.
That is why some of us are nervous.

expoultryboy wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 17, 2023 6:19 pm

Thank goodness for that Hipper , we should be resting players in league games and concentrating on the cup

We might well be able to exercise that luxury if we win our next few before Fleetwood.

Hipper wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 17, 2023 4:33 pm

If we win this weekend, and Cardiff lose and Blackpool and Huddersfield don't win we cannot be relegated (barring a points deduction).

We'll have 72 and the max that those three can get is 71 (they play each other too but I can't be bothered with those permutations).

Horay!

Let's hope for a peaceful weekend then!

Hipper wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 17, 2023 4:33 pm

If we win this weekend, and Cardiff lose and Blackpool and Huddersfield don't win we cannot be relegated (barring a points deduction).

We'll have 72 and the max that those three can get is 71 (they play each other too but I can't be bothered with those permutations).

Horay!

Disaster!

Cardiff, Blackpool and Huddersfield all win. Even Wigan get a draw. Luckily we got a win but we are still in trouble.

claret59 wrote: ↑

Fri Feb 17, 2023 8:28 pm

Some of us 'old hands' still have sad memories of 1961 season when we were leading the first Division ( 2 points for a win,) by some distance and on course for the 'double.' We then won only one more league game in the last ten fixtures and were overtaken by Ipswich to finish as runners up 3 points behind them. (All stats taken from memory as I cannot locate my relevant stats book.) We were fantastic for the first 30 games . scoring over 100 goals and there was possibly some impact from the bribery scandal, although I cannot recall the exact details.
That is why some of us are nervous.

Weren't we 6 clear of Ipswich with about 7 or 8 to go ir something (I am too young to remember that).

But that's less than the gap now for promotion and less than the gap for 2nd (even counting 2 vs 3 points) - although there are a fee more games left yet