Another massive transition required?

[northeastclaret]

It’s becoming clearer from comments by VK and Bellamy that they initially built a team to eventually develop into one that could win promotion in two or three seasons.

Due to VK’s amazing ability he has achieved it one season. But they signed players to develop to primarily succeed in the championship not the premier league. Also he has maximised the contribution from some of the aging players so he will now be assessing who can do it again in the league above.

Another massive transition required, but is this even harder than last seasons?

[RVclaret]

No I don’t think it’s harder. I think we only need 5/6 new players as well as signing 3 out of the 4 loanees again. Compare that to having to bring in 15 new players and gel them all during a frantic Championship season with a rushed pre season. This time we’ve had / still have plenty of time to plan ahead for what has been glaringly apparent for a while (promotion).

[equinox]

There is this theory of the Moebius. A twist in the fabric of space where time becomes a loop from which there is no escape. So when we reach that point, whatever happened will happen again.

[Jjjack]

No massive transition required. We have money in the bank and we have prepared for this eventuality. I'd imagine Tella, Maatsen, and Beyer to become perms, secure THB for another season. New keeper, 2 midfielders and a striker and we are probably going to be just fine.

[Silkyskills1]

I agree with the OP. We have had a competitive squad this season able mostly to cope with the demands of Championship football. I don't think any of them envisaged achieving what we have and nor did I and those I go to the match with. Victims of their own success perhaps but I suspect a number of players that have been with us throughout VK's time will be looking for a move sooner than later.

[gtclaret]

No I don’t think it’s harder. I think we only need 5/6 new players as well as signing 3 out of the 4 loanees again. Compare that to having to bring in 15 new players and gel them all during a frantic Championship season with a rushed pre season. This time we’ve had / still have plenty of time to plan ahead for what has been glaringly apparent for a while (promotion).

5/6mew signings for the prem is incredibly hard, much more difficult than the recruitment we had to do in the championship

[Pickles]

We'll be reyt next season. looking forward to a midtable finish, safe by Xmas and a little flirt with the European places in March.

[RVclaret]

5/6mew signings for the prem is incredibly hard, much more difficult than the recruitment we had to do in the championship

That’s what we’ve been led to believe over the years but I don’t think it is. There will be a larger transfer budget due to how we’ve managed the wage bill on relegation and we have Kompany’s pull & style of football, which is far more attractive for players to buy into, and widens the net for who we can target.

[4midable]

You think pep will lend us another city player to help take points off their rivals?

[beddie]

If we do secure promotion I have 5 players in mind that we might need to move in in order to bring in new recruits. VK will again have to be looking abroad for the quality required. Let’s get over the first hurdle before we think of recruiting.

[Conroy92]

I believe you can only have two active loans at any one time in the prem although someone might correct this if not true. Based on that hoping on loans to bolster us out like we have this year is unlikely. This will be an extremely tough window for us based upon the fact that our current loanees have performed well and may cost upwards of 10m plus per player. If your looking at us spending 30-40m plus on converting the 4 loans, Beyer, Bellis, Maatsen and Tella I think it unlikely we will be signing any other first team players. We need to be smart. With Ekdal and Al Dakhil signing I'd question needing both CB's. With any luck Beyer has a release fee at a low cost but sky Germany have been reporting around 13m. Maatsen I think is costing 10m plus and I'd be surprised if saints didnt want 15m for Tella. With an outlay of around 30m just to convert three loans I stuggle to see where we will find more money for other signings. We have done well this season finding value in players but this is even harder to do at prem level. It's unlikely we are going to find the centre midfielder we require for under 10m to start in the prem for us. Realistically we probably need to be looking at spending 50m plus this window. Realistically I can't see that happening.

[TravisBickle]

I’d be confident of staying up em if we just kept all of this seasons players.

I’m even more confident when we add a few to it. We should have plenty to play with after our cost cutting last summer, coupled with the new money coming in (prem and any sponsorship and investment) plus some more older, bigger earners off the books.

Jay is almost certain to leave and is reportedly our highest earner. I’m sure barnes will follow and will be one of the top earners. Possibly cork. Although I’d be inclined to keep cork. (Think barnes has been good this season, especially since the derby, but think he will move on and would hope we could get a younger version).

Then we will probably cash in on BPF, may also on some of the fringe players like churlinov and even Twine. Not forgetting Wout.

Should have a good budget especially if we maximise loans again. Granted we can only use a couple from the English leagues.

[TravisBickle]

I believe you can only have two active loans at any one time in the prem although someone might correct this if not true. Based on that hoping on loans to bolster us out like we have this year is unlikely. This will be an extremely tough window for us based upon the fact that our current loanees have performed well and may cost upwards of 10m plus per player. If your looking at us spending 30-40m plus on converting the 4 loans, Beyer, Bellis, Maatsen and Tella I think it unlikely we will be signing any other first team players. We need to be smart. With Ekdal and Al Dakhil signing I'd question needing both CB's. With any luck Beyer has a release fee at a low cost but sky Germany have been reporting around 13m. Maatsen I think is costing 10m plus and I'd be surprised if saints didnt want 15m for Tella. With an outlay of around 30m just to convert three loans I stuggle to see where we will find more money for other signings. We have done well this season finding value in players but this is even harder to do at prem level. It's unlikely we are going to find the centre midfielder we require for under 10m to start in the prem for us. Realistically we probably need to be looking at spending 50m plus this window. Realistically I can't see that happening.

We will easily recoup £20m in fees from players we don’t want and free up loads of wages.

There will be good frees and loans available. And kompany has proven he can spot a bargain at this level. So hoping for more of the same.

As it stands I’d fancy our side now against all of the bottom eight.

[Guich]

Nottingham Forest had a massive transition which they needed. But we are much more comparable with Fulham who were by far the best team in the Championship last season.

Our players, under our brilliant coaching team, have improved hugely and are already good enough to beat half of the teams in the Premier League (imo). If we sign or retain four of the loanees and bring another four or five in I reckon we'll finish around 10th - just above Fulham

[Rowls]

There is this theory of the Moebius. A twist in the fabric of space where time becomes a loop from which there is no escape. So when we reach that point, whatever happened will happen again.

This is why I always write down the winning lottery numbers.

[ŽižkovClaret]

Could/would we cherry pick some players from the relegated teams? not many spring to mind, admittedly, but that could be one way to add an experienced core.....

[Conroy92]

We will easily recoup £20m in fees from players we don’t want and free up loads of wages.

There will be good frees and loans available. And kompany has proven he can spot a bargain at this level. So hoping for more of the same.

As it stands I’d fancy our side now against all of the bottom eight.

The problem is our first 11 right now probably has 4 players we don't own, ranging from 30-40m of value. I appreciate what your saying about recouping 20m from moving players on but we'd still have to stump another 20m up just to keep the first 11 the same along then having 4/5 squad spots to fill from the players moved on. We will have far fewer loans due to the rules of the prem, two active at any time if I'm not mistaken. Kompany has proved he can spot a bargain at this level but not the one above as of yet.
We are going to need at least one premier league ready midfielder and that will cost.

Basically we move on 4/5 and make 20m back. We spend 40m on keeping the loans. We have spent an outlay of 20m still have the same first 11 but a smaller squad. We'll then have around 5/6 spots to fill in the team, you'd want at least 2/3 first team players with 2/3 squad/younger players.
I still think your looking at a 40-50m pound spend just keeping this squad together and adding that.

[Conroy92]

If we sign or retain four of the loanees and bring another four or five in I reckon we'll finish around 10th - just above Fulham

Signing the four loanees, 30-40m
Signing another 4/5 players- (even at 5m a piece) 25m

Expenditure 55-65m.

Not likely.

[TravisBickle]

Could/would we cherry pick some players from the relegated teams? not many spring to mind, admittedly, but that could be one way to add an experienced core.....

Ward prowse is the obvious one and would be an excellent replacement for cork. Granted his a bit ‘slighter’.

Would he come here? Unsure. I’m sure we were after him or even close under Dyche.

Of the other clubs down there. Hard to say who would be realistic. But there are some good individuals in poor squads.

[TravisBickle]

The problem is our first 11 right now probably has 4 players we don't own, ranging from 30-40m of value. I appreciate what your saying about recouping 20m from moving players on but we'd still have to stump another 20m up just to keep the first 11 the same along then having 4/5 squad spots to fill from the players moved on. We will have far fewer loans due to the rules of the prem, two active at any time if I'm not mistaken. Kompany has proved he can spot a bargain at this level but not the one above as of yet.
We are going to need at least one premier league ready midfielder and that will cost.

Basically we move on 4/5 and make 20m back. We spend 40m on keeping the loans. We have spent an outlay of 20m still have the same first 11 but a smaller squad. We'll then have around 5/6 spots to fill in the team, you'd want at least 2/3 first team players with 2/3 squad/younger players.
I still think your looking at a 40-50m pound spend just keeping this squad together and adding that.

What will be will be. I’m confident we can build a squad good enough to stay up. And if we don’t I’m confident we have a good model in place now and would be well equipped to come back again.

I think the board and manager will go all out though (within reason) to make sure we don’t go down.

[Tricky Trevor]

Hasn't it already been reported that VK said he expected 5+ flops when he made so many signings and that 5+ incoming would be needed to improve the team?

[AlargeClaret]

It’s the ( as good as) totally losing the old guard and their influence and guile which has served us well at champ level . They’re pretty much past it now as starters even in the champ . Though I love these guys Barnes/Cork/JBG/Jay etc they all need replacing . That said I think we’ve a v good chance of keeping /signing 3 of our loans . Add a leader and a good mid/cf we’ll be ok . Also clear out our “ not quite made the graders” Though I like Ekdal he’s miles too slow for prem .

[ervi34]

Loan THB and Maatsen, buy Tella and Beyer.

Sign another keeper, CM and 1 striker and we should be fine.

[Spike]

i think to think that Kompany didnt think we could go up is incorrect

[TsarBomba]

We dismantled Bournemouth, and played very well against a good Man U side.

We’ll be fine.

[randomclaret2]

None of us had any idea what would unfold last summer , so let's just see what happens...

[northeastclaret]

Hasn't it already been reported that VK said he expected 5+ flops when he made so many signings and that 5+ incoming would be needed to improve the team?

Yes I think he said recently if you sign 20 players you would expect 5 not to succeed , I don’t remember him saying anything about saying how many we need. Although it was said he spent a week , with his coaching team ,planning for next season during the international break .

[northeastclaret]

i think to think that Kompany didnt think we could go up is incorrect

I think the point is we planned , with the players we signed to have a squad that was capable of winning promotion with development in the next two or three years. I don’t think they would ever think they couldn’t win promotion sooner. But it means that most of the players weren’t signed with the premier league in mind, apart from Foster and Obefemi and our two new centre backs .

[CoolClaret]

Wouldn’t say a massive transition; more that we need to hit on quality in key areas….

… Easier said than done mind

[Rowls]

We dismantled Bournemouth, and played very well against a good Man U side.

We’ll be fine.

And we only have to play Man City twice.

[Newcastleclaret93]

I suspect our summer will look something like the following.

Extend:
Cork
Taylor
Barnes

Sell/loan out:
Twine
Bastien
Churlinov
McNally
Egan Riley
BPF
Al Dakhell

Sign:
2 x CMs
2 x wingers
1 x striker
2 x CBs
1 x left back

Busy summer but I suspect that’s the reality of it.

[RVclaret]

I suspect our summer will look something like the following.

Extend:
Cork
Taylor
Barnes

Only Barnes is out of contract here. I personally don’t think we will extend his either. Jay got another year. Time to move on.

[houseboy]

You think pep will lend us another city player to help take points off their rivals?

Haarland do would be handy.

[Newcastleclaret93]

Only Barnes is out of contract here. I personally don’t think we will extend his either. Jay got another year. Time to move on.

I could see them extending all three by one more year each. Just for a bit of security.

Barnes I can definitely see getting an extension just purely down to the fact it gives the squad a bit of prem experience in the dressing room.

[houseboy]

The problem is our first 11 right now probably has 4 players we don't own, ranging from 30-40m of value. I appreciate what your saying about recouping 20m from moving players on but we'd still have to stump another 20m up just to keep the first 11 the same along then having 4/5 squad spots to fill from the players moved on. We will have far fewer loans due to the rules of the prem, two active at any time if I'm not mistaken. Kompany has proved he can spot a bargain at this level but not the one above as of yet.
We are going to need at least one premier league ready midfielder and that will cost.

Basically we move on 4/5 and make 20m back. We spend 40m on keeping the loans. We have spent an outlay of 20m still have the same first 11 but a smaller squad. We'll then have around 5/6 spots to fill in the team, you'd want at least 2/3 first team players with 2/3 squad/younger players.
I still think your looking at a 40-50m pound spend just keeping this squad together and adding that.

But for the time being would we need to buy Maatsen? That’s if Chelsea would let him go. Rumour has it that they have already agreed to let him stay on loan for another season. We do need him, he’s amazing, but no point paying out until we have to. And to be honest knowing Chelsea and the way he has been playing I doubt we could afford him.

[RVclaret]

I could see them extending all three by one more year each. Just for a bit of security.

Barnes I can definitely see getting an extension just purely down to the fact it gives the squad a bit of prem experience in the dressing room.

Taylor will likely be allowed to leave. See what you are saying with Barnes but Jay Rod & Cork will give that experience, even though I don’t expect either to feature much.

[Swizzlestick]

I think VK will want to offer an extension to Barnes. He's highlighted Barnes' importance, especially in the dressing room, practically since day one, and he's obviously a well respected presence with some of the younger lads. Personally I think time to move on, just trying to predict what VK will be thinking.

[GodIsADeeJay81]

Massive transition?

So a Nottingham forest style transfer window?
Ace

[Boss Hogg]

Don’t think we’ll need many but we will need quality particularly in CM x2, another striker and maybe RB after that. CM need to be proven players and will cost if we want to make a fist if it. In the last few seasons we’ve always looked week in this area in the top flight.

[Chester Perry]

No massive transition required. We have money in the bank and we have prepared for this eventuality. I'd imagine Tella, Maatsen, and Beyer to become perms, secure THB for another season. New keeper, 2 midfielders and a striker and we are probably going to be just fine.

I am really intrigued by this:
- How much?
- Where has it come from?

there is much detail I would like to know and would love to be shown that all the outgoings I have suggested in quite some detail in the past year or so is incorrect - I truly do want to be wrong on that, even knowing of all the gleeful ridicule that would follow, if it is so

[Mala591]

There is this theory of the Moebius. A twist in the fabric of space where time becomes a loop from which there is no escape. So when we reach that point, whatever happened will happen again.

i.e. we are a PL/Championship yo-yo club

[jlup1980]

If we manage to sign the lads currently on loan then I suspect we'll focus on CM. Maybe Pep will do us a deal for Kalvin Phillips haha, him and Ward Prowse wouldn't be bad!! Harvey Barnes as well please... sorry, I've dropped into Championship Manager mode!!

[Jjjack]

I am really intrigued by this:
- How much?
- Where has it come from?

there is much detail I would like to know and would love to be shown that all the outgoings I have suggested in quite some detail in the past year or so is incorrect - I truly do want to be wrong on that, even knowing of all the gleeful ridicule that would follow, if it is so

Just parroting what I've heard, but profit in the last transfer windows, wage bill reduced, debts serviced and incoming promotion money would suggest we have a healthy transfer kitty coming up.

[boyyanno]

Just parroting what I've heard, but profit in the last transfer windows, wage bill reduced, debts serviced and incoming promotion money would suggest we have a healthy transfer kitty coming up.

The debts being serviced is more likely a reason we have less money in the bank as opposed to more. Wage bill will have been reduced from the PL but I expect will still be high for this division, especially if promotion bonuses are paid out. We made a bit of money on player transfers as our reported incomings didn't quite match the outgoings, although it's probably closer if you factor in Foster and Obefami. The leftover money from that is what has serviced the debt though isn't it?

Everyone assumes the PL money is a massive figure dropped straight into the bank but the reality is it needs to cover the clubs costs in the PL, increased wages etc. Reading this board you'd think we hadn't already been in the PL, debt free, and turning a profit. If we struggled to compete financially at that point then we are going to struggle again without taking on further debts.

[RVclaret]

The debts being serviced is more likely a reason we have less money in the bank as opposed to more. Wage bill will have been reduced from the PL but I expect will still be high for this division, especially if promotion bonuses are paid out. We made a bit of money on player transfers as our reported incomings didn't quite match the outgoings, although it's probably closer if you factor in Foster and Obefami. The leftover money from that is what has serviced the debt though isn't it?

Everyone assumes the PL money is a massive figure dropped straight into the bank but the reality is it needs to cover the clubs costs in the PL, increased wages etc. Reading this board you'd think we hadn't already been in the PL, debt free, and turning a profit. If we struggled to compete financially at that point then we are going to struggle again without taking on further debts.

PL revenue will be around 125-135m depending on where we finish in the league. Our current wage bill has been suggested to be under 30m. Even with promotion bonus’ and increases, it would be hard to see that going any higher than, let’s say a maximum 70m. Other costs (going off our last PL accounts) are around 13m. This leaves a fair chunk (50m approx) of PL income (before mentioning potential sales of the likes of Weghorst, Taylor, McNally possibly etc).

[SalisburyClaret]

Players who have proven they are good enough or definitely look good enough for the Premier League -

Cork
Taylor
Barnes
Beyer
Brownhill
Roberts
Rodriguez
Gudmundsson

Players who really don’t look good enough -

Bastien
Churlinov
McNally
Egan Riley

Everyone else is a maybe. Keeper, Central Midfield and Centre Forward look crucial

[Chester Perry]

Just parroting what I've heard, but profit in the last transfer windows, wage bill reduced, debts serviced and incoming promotion money would suggest we have a healthy transfer kitty coming up.

it would be worthwhile you seeking more detail from those who relate this to you - there are a lot of people passing off 'plausible' explanations, including myself. The difference is I provide all the supporting information and workings as to how I come to the explanations I provide - those who make counter arguments don't.

The amount of money that has washed through on takeover/share acquisition related payments, including MSD debt clearance, in 2022 is probably greater than the overall operational revenue of the club last season (2021/22) in the Premier League.

[Chester Perry]

PL revenue will be around 125-135m depending on where we finish in the league. Our current wage bill has been suggested to be under 30m. Even with promotion bonus’ and increases, it would be hard to see that going any higher than, let’s say a maximum 70m. Other costs (going off our last PL accounts) are around 13m. This leaves a fair chunk (50m approx) of PL income (before mentioning potential sales of the likes of Weghorst, Taylor, McNally possibly etc).

We do not know what the PL money will be next season - because next season there will be a new distribution system to the rest of football, not just the EFL, but also women's football, the grassroots and the FA. Also we know that the size and duration of Parachute payments are going to change. There is also suggestion that there may be changes to the distribution formula's within the Premier League as a direct result of the impacts of the above changes

One thing that is likely to disappear is the the retention of parachute payments not utilised as a result of re-promotion to the Premier League

[RVclaret]

We do not know what the PL money will be next season - because next season there will be a new distribution system to the rest of football, not just the EFL, but also women's football, the grassroots and the FA. Also we know that the size and duration of Parachute payments are going to change. There is also suggestion that there may be changes to the distribution formula's within the Premier League as a direct result of the impacts of the above changes

One thing that is likely to disappear is the the retention of parachute payments not utilised as a result of re-promotion to the Premier League

Well I highly doubt the clubs will receive less money than this season, whatever happens. There hasn’t been confirmation of any parachute payment changes yet, in fact in the last article I posted in the magic money thread it was suggesting the PL are doing everything they can to leave them as they are.

[Chester Perry]

Well I highly doubt the clubs will receive less money than this season, whatever happens. There hasn’t been confirmation of any parachute payment changes yet, in fact in the last article I posted in the magic money thread it was suggesting the PL are doing everything they can to leave them as they are.

Yet Premier League Chief Exec Richard Masters told the DCMS in parliament only in the last week or so that changes to Parachute payments would be in place for next season, also he strongly suggested that a new set of agreements would be in place for next season for the EFL, grassroots etc - the Premier league does not have huge reserves and is still trying to regain contracted unpaid monies from former TV partners, most notably in China

It is indeed possible that the base distributions will not change within the Premier League for the rest of the cycle but most of the fringe benefits such as the unused parachutes are unlikely to be given to the 20 members going forward.

If I have learned anything about football finance in the last few years it is verify any report that is made with understanding of all the surrounding events and regulation