REPORT: The home defeats keep coming

[ClaretTony]

Burnley v West Ham report

See link
https://www.uptheclarets.com/the-home-d ... eep-coming

[ElectroClaret]

A very fair report.
Yes, the substitutions were undoubtedly the turning point and as you say CT, the Cullen/Guddy one utterly baffling.

Can't really be anything but fearful given the nature of the defeat yesterday, should have quite easily closed the game out.

Hoping for a minor miracle.
UTC

[JohnDearyMe]

It's hard to reconcile the current season with the previous one. We could well end up going from having one of our best ever seasons to having the worst in our history.

Absolutely huge game next Saturday

[ClaretTony]

A very fair report.
Yes, the substitutions were undoubtedly the turning point and as you say CT, the Cullen/Guddy one utterly baffling.

Can't really be anything but fearful given the nature of the defeat yesterday, should have quite easily closed the game out.

Hoping for a minor miracle.
UTC

Didn’t understand any of the changes yesterday but the third one I found baffling.

[FCBurnley]

Fair enough report but I would have made much more of the non penalty in the first half. Having viewed it from every angle I can see why the ref did not give it but I cannot see any reason why VAR said no except to support the refs decision
As for next weeks game v Sheff U it is a must win if only because our opponents will almost certainly be relegated even if they beat us !!
I have to add that I am finding it very difficult to understand our clubs logic since winning the Championship at Ewood. We knew we were promoted way before the end of the season which gave us more time to plan than most promoted clubs get and yet we still ended up with a very young unbalanced and inexperienced squad. This in my opinion is the root cause of our current problems. We never replaced our 3 key loanees who were the heart of our team. We replaced our keeper who had improved dramatically during our Championship season. We appeared to be gambling on young unproven players in the hope of discovering a gem. Well I think we have found one in Koleosho but the majority of our other signings are way off the quality required to survive in the PL. Two exceptions are Berge who is developing into a top quality player and Koleosho. Obviously the illness suffered by Lyle Foster has left a huge void. Jay does his best to cover but is never going to be prolific at this level. I have to wonder what has happened to
Roberts
Al Dakhil
Benson ( injured still ?)
Zaroury
Cork
Muric etc All of which were excellent last season If they are deemed not good enough then why were they not sold ? Maybe I am expecting too much too soon from the likes of Tresor Ramsay Amdouni Trafford O’Shea Vitinho etc
Finally and my biggest disappointment of all is our Manager. Last season I truly thought we had acquired potentially one of the best future managers in the world ! What the hell happened and that is what us making this season so tough to take.
Ok now I have got that controlled rant off my chest I will get back to watching Spurs v Villa

[groove]

I'm not so sure it was a stonewall penalty. LK's touch was awful and he'd never have got the byline if he'd stayed on his feet. LK knew this and awaited the inevitable contact. If it's a better touch by LK, it's a penalty.

[bfcjg]

TBH it is quite depressing going on now, you just know in your bones what's going to happen, yesterday you could sense it was just a matter of time after the first substitutions when the ball was constantly launched into the box. If we win next week who knows it might be a catalyst.

[jojomk1]

It's hard to reconcile the current season with the previous one. We could well end up going from having one of our best ever seasons to having the worst in our history.
Absolutely huge game next Saturday

You can't reconcile the current season to the last one
The PremierLeague is way above the Championship at all levels
Expectations of finishing around mid table were only for fools - it was always going to be a struggle just to survive
The fact that summer recruitment was abysmal with a manager looking blindly towards youth when a minimum half measure of experience was required has condemned us to a likely quick return via relegation
And the current level of untried youth will also find it difficult to cope with the physical battles required at Championship level
Next Saturday is just one game from thirty eight and whatever the result it is highly unlikely to make any difference to our end of season position

[agreenwood]

TBH it is quite depressing going on now, you just know in your bones what's going to happen, yesterday you could sense it was just a matter of time after the first substitutions when the ball was constantly launched into the box. If we win next week who knows it might be a catalyst.

Isn’t that just the Premier League though? I think I stopped enjoying being in it the season we were in Europe. I was willing to buy the idea that our dominance last season might make this one more than just the typical newly promoted side’s relegation scrap, but that was extinguished pretty quickly.

It’s hard spending multiple years in a division you know that it’ll be tough to even break into the top 14.

[Kilson810]

You can't reconcile the current season to the last one
The PremierLeague is way above the Championship at all levels
Expectations of finishing around mid table were only for fools - it was always going to be a struggle just to survive
The fact that summer recruitment was abysmal with a manager looking blindly towards youth when a minimum half measure of experience was required has condemned us to a likely quick return via relegation
And the current level of untried youth will also find it difficult to cope with the physical battles required at Championship level
Next Saturday is just one game from thirty eight and whatever the result it is highly unlikely to make any difference to our end of season position

Correct, even if we kept the whole squad together next year (which won't happen), I don't fancy them going away to places like Rotherham and Hull on a Tuesday night battling for 3 points.

[fidelcastro]

It’s hard spending multiple years in a division you know that it’ll be tough to even break into the top 14.

Which made what Dyche achieved all the more remarkable.

[quoonbeatz]

Isn’t that just the Premier League though? I think I stopped enjoying being in it the season we were in Europe. I was willing to buy the idea that our dominance last season might make this one more than just the typical newly promoted side’s relegation scrap, but that was extinguished pretty quickly.

It’s hard spending multiple years in a division you know that it’ll be tough to even break into the top 14.

Bang on. I want us to be playing as high as we can but it's largely a waste of time for anyone but about 6-7 clubs being in this division. No chance of winning it, very little chance of getting into Europe and when you do it just costs you a lot of money and has an adverse effect on your domestic season. It's a money league, not a football league. Great if we're here but I'm not really arsed if we're not.

[Fretters]

Fair enough report but I would have made much more of the non penalty in the first half. Having viewed it from every angle I can see why the ref did not give it but I cannot see any reason why VAR said no except to support the refs decision
As for next weeks game v Sheff U it is a must win if only because our opponents will almost certainly be relegated even if they beat us !!
I have to add that I am finding it very difficult to understand our clubs logic since winning the Championship at Ewood. We knew we were promoted way before the end of the season which gave us more time to plan than most promoted clubs get and yet we still ended up with a very young unbalanced and inexperienced squad. This in my opinion is the root cause of our current problems. We never replaced our 3 key loanees who were the heart of our team. We replaced our keeper who had improved dramatically during our Championship season. We appeared to be gambling on young unproven players in the hope of discovering a gem. Well I think we have found one in Koleosho but the majority of our other signings are way off the quality required to survive in the PL. Two exceptions are Berge who is developing into a top quality player and Koleosho. Obviously the illness suffered by Lyle Foster has left a huge void. Jay does his best to cover but is never going to be prolific at this level. I have to wonder what has happened to
Roberts
Al Dakhil
Benson ( injured still ?)
Zaroury
Cork
Muric etc All of which were excellent last season If they are deemed not good enough then why were they not sold ? Maybe I am expecting too much too soon from the likes of Tresor Ramsay Amdouni Trafford O’Shea Vitinho etc
Finally and my biggest disappointment of all is our Manager. Last season I truly thought we had acquired potentially one of the best future managers in the world ! What the hell happened and that is what us making this season so tough to take.
Ok now I have got that controlled rant off my chest I will get back to watching Spurs v Villa

I don't disagree with the majoiry of that, but in terms of the 3 key loanees you refer to, THB was out for almost half a season and I think Amdouni would do just as well as Tella did at Championship level. As for Maatsen, I actually think we'd be conceding even more without the more defence-minded Taylor there.

The biggest mistake for me is going into the Premier League with a novice keeper.

[vinrogue]

Back 5 Muric, Roberts, Ekdal, Beyer, Maatsen, maybe add Harwood Bellis. Promoted and we started vs WHU Trafford, Vitinho, OShea, Beyer and Taylor. We have ripped up our back 5 from last season entered the big boys league and crossed our fingers ….currently I am gutted

[FCBurnley]

Back 5 Muric, Roberts, Ekdal, Beyer, Maatsen, maybe add Harwood Bellis. Promoted and we started vs WHU Trafford, Vitinho, OShea, Beyer and Taylor. We have ripped up our back 5 from last season entered the big boys league and crossed our fingers ….currently I am gutted

And what amazes me is our Manager was a top if not world class defender!!

[ClaretTony]

Back 5 Muric, Roberts, Ekdal, Beyer, Maatsen, maybe add Harwood Bellis. Promoted and we started vs WHU Trafford, Vitinho, OShea, Beyer and Taylor. We have ripped up our back 5 from last season entered the big boys league and crossed our fingers ….currently I am gutted

And unlike a lot of people on here, I'm far from convinced with Beyer.

[CoolClaret]

And unlike a lot of people on here, I'm far from convinced with Beyer.

He’s been a bit disappointing this season hasn’t he CT?

Not sure if he’s got the physicality to be a center half in the PL.

May do a better job at RB or RCB in a three.

[Cirrus_Minor]

I am not convinced that we have a Premier league level centre back in our squad. Why we didn't go for at least one experienced centre back in the close season, especially with all the money that has been made available, is beyond me. Even more surprising since we have a manager who was one of the best in this position in Europe.

[jojomk1]

And unlike a lot of people on here, I'm far from convinced with Beyer.

You know what's going to happen when he starts on those runs out from the back - gets caught on the ball and found way out of position

Needs a lot more discipline in staying within the back four formation

And for those who think he could play in midfield the same scenario applies

Don't get me wrong, he's as good as anything we have - but not that good

[Wokingclaret]

And unlike a lot of people on here, I'm far from convinced with Beyer.

Probably missing THB alongside him. Al Dakil and O'Shea can't of helped

[Wokingclaret]

Time for Ekdal but a mystery why he disappeared at the end of last season and not first choice at the beginning of this

[Nonayforever]

Back 5 Muric, Roberts, Ekdal, Beyer, Maatsen, maybe add Harwood Bellis. Promoted and we started vs WHU Trafford, Vitinho, OShea, Beyer and Taylor. We have ripped up our back 5 from last season entered the big boys league and crossed our fingers ….currently I am gutted

It was more of a back 6 which included Cullen.
They had it all worked out between themselves. The defence was the engine of the team in the second half of the season.
PL teams sussed Cullen out straight away, pressed the full backs and Trafford, we can all see the results.
Performances seem to be getting better but apart from Koleosho, I can't see a saviour.

[ClaretLoup]

We’ve got big problems at both ends. In the last seven games Burnley have scored four and conceded seventeen. This means they need to score three goals to get all three points, when they are struggling to score one.

[ClaretTony]

Time for Ekdal but a mystery why he disappeared at the end of last season and not first choice at the beginning of this

He was injured at the end of last season

[ClaretTony]

You know what's going to happen when he starts on those runs out from the back - gets caught on the ball and found way out of position

Needs a lot more discipline in staying within the back four formation

And for those who think he could play in midfield the same scenario applies

Don't get me wrong, he's as good as anything we have - but not that good

I’m still trying to work out what on earth he’s doing for their first goal on Saturday.

[elwaclaret]

I maintain the opinion VK has been using the start to the season to try to settle additions in and get a feel for them as players and people.

West Ham was a sickener, and came from the manager showing he IS now feeling the pressure to deliver. A confident manager does not go to tighten up when the team is controlling the game. Hopefully just as being against a follow promoted team seemed to breed confidence when we played Luton, we will see a more confident Burnley next game… and our season can start.

I do wonder if the elongated pre-season has backfired, not least because we seem to have got quite a few fit for both other clubs and our reserves.

[Papabendi]

Bang on. I want us to be playing as high as we can but it's largely a waste of time for anyone but about 6-7 clubs being in this division. No chance of winning it, very little chance of getting into Europe and when you do it just costs you a lot of money and has an adverse effect on your domestic season. It's a money league, not a football league. Great if we're here but I'm not really arsed if we're not.

The slight issue with your view is that it renders any success in the Championship rather pointless too. Surely Brighton and Brentford are good models for us. Able to have enjoyable seasons and stick it to the big boys whilst thriving with talented players spotted through clever scouting. And sure, bring no good at this level as we have been this season and in the last season we appeared in it is no fun at all, that is obvious.

[Billyblah]

Which made what Dyche achieved all the more remarkable.

Not entirely remarkable, Dyche took an intelligent and pragmatic approach, realising that teams wishing to 'compete ' In the PL in the 21st century need a particularly wealthy sugar daddy.

He realised that survival on lesser budgets involved a quality keeper and defenders (they are the cheaper players on the pitch), and up front players capable of knicking 1-0 wins.
Dycheball gained much criticism on this forum but it allowed us to compete in the PL until the previous Chairman stopped investing in the team.

I can see what Kompany is doing in investing in youth but first you have to build the foundations of survival...relying on a backbone of experience....without that foundation we slip straight back down.

[Rileybobs]

Not entirely remarkable, Dyche took an intelligent and pragmatic approach, realising that teams wishing to 'compete ' In the PL in the 21st century need a particularly wealthy sugar daddy.

He realised that survival on lesser budgets involved a quality keeper and defenders (they are the cheaper players on the pitch), and up front players capable of knicking 1-0 wins.
Dycheball gained much criticism on this forum but it allowed us to compete in the PL until the previous Chairman stopped investing in the team.

I can see what Kompany is doing in investing in youth but first you have to build the foundations of survival...relying on a backbone of experience....without that foundation we slip straight back down.

I’ve seen a lot of people over the past couple of years compare our model with ‘moneyball’, yet there’s a good argument that the previous tenure of Garlick and Dyche was far more so. Signing less fashionable players who hit the required numbers. Goalkeepers who would win games single-handedly. Strong defenders at a relatively low cost who will also contribute with vital goals from set pieces. Strikers like Wood who didn’t look particularly slick and often frustrated fans, but consistently came up with enough goals throughout a season. Players like Hendrick who had some fans bamboozled with what he offered but obviously filled a very specific role and did exactly what was asked of him.

That era was far less ‘sexy’, for sure, but the strategy was clear to see.

[Spijed]

The slight issue with your view is that it renders any success in the Championship rather pointless too. Surely Brighton and Brentford are good models for us. Able to have enjoyable seasons and stick it to the big boys whilst thriving with talented players spotted through clever scouting. And sure, bring no good at this level as we have been this season and in the last season we appeared in it is no fun at all, that is obvious.

It does need emphasising though that Brighton have been funded to rhe tune of nearly half a billion to get to where they are now and they spent many millions on players who turned out to be complete duds before making good profits on others.

We can't afford that luxury of writing off a £20 million signing like they could. That's a big difference.

[CoolClaret]

The slight issue with your view is that it renders any success in the Championship rather pointless too. Surely Brighton and Brentford are good models for us. Able to have enjoyable seasons and stick it to the big boys whilst thriving with talented players spotted through clever scouting. And sure, bring no good at this level as we have been this season and in the last season we appeared in it is no fun at all, that is obvious.

It does need emphasising though that Brighton have been funded to rhe tune of nearly half a billion to get to where they are now and they spent many millions on players who turned out to be complete duds before making good profits on others.

We can't afford that luxury of writing off a £20 million signing like they could. That's a big difference.

Agreed Spijed, it's a detail lost on some. Not to mention that 'The Lizard; Tony Bloom has vastly more experience in football and football data analytics than Alan Pace and co.

On Brentford - they've always supplemented their sides with some physical center halves / defensive midfieldes and did change their setup to be a little more pragmatic, which at least helps them compete when not matching up in technical ability...

Signigns such as Ethan Pinnock, Pontus Jansson, Christian Norgaard, Ben Mee, Kristoffer Ajer.

[quoonbeatz]

The slight issue with your view is that it renders any success in the Championship rather pointless too. Surely Brighton and Brentford are good models for us. Able to have enjoyable seasons and stick it to the big boys whilst thriving with talented players spotted through clever scouting. And sure, bring no good at this level as we have been this season and in the last season we appeared in it is no fun at all, that is obvious.

Not really. I'd rank all of our successful championship seasons above all of our premier league seasons bar the one we finished 7th. I've seen us stick it to the big boys plenty of times and it's all a bit meh now. Enjoyable being in the top league but there's less of an edge to it, knowing that so many games can be written off as free hots before the season starts. The whole thing needs a massive reset (which is never going to happen) to make it truly competitive.

[Papabendi]

It does need emphasising though that Brighton have been funded to rhe tune of nearly half a billion to get to where they are now and they spent many millions on players who turned out to be complete duds before making good profits on others.

We can't afford that luxury of writing off a £20 million signing like they could. That's a big difference.

I think you need to relook the Brighton model over the past five years

[Papabendi]

Not really. I'd rank all of our successful championship seasons above all of our premier league seasons bar the one we finished 7th. I've seen us stick it to the big boys plenty of times and it's all a bit meh now. Enjoyable being in the top league but there's less of an edge to it, knowing that so many games can be written off as free hots before the season starts. The whole thing needs a massive reset (which is never going to happen) to make it truly competitive.

And the irony of your best seasons in the Championship is they all lead back to the Prem. So I guess you have to work out what you want. I guess we could be a PNE, treading water down there if you prefer.

[Spijed]

I think you need to relook the Brighton model over the past five years

But without the money in the first place (almost half a billion) they would never have got to where they are now. That's something we can never compete with.

[fidelcastro]

Not entirely remarkable, Dyche took an intelligent and pragmatic approach, realising that teams wishing to 'compete ' In the PL in the 21st century need a particularly wealthy sugar daddy.

He realised that survival on lesser budgets involved a quality keeper and defenders (they are the cheaper players on the pitch), and up front players capable of knicking 1-0 wins.
Dycheball gained much criticism on this forum but it allowed us to compete in the PL until the previous Chairman stopped investing in the team.

I can see what Kompany is doing in investing in youth but first you have to build the foundations of survival...relying on a backbone of experience....without that foundation we slip straight back down.

Of course it was remarkable what Dyche achieved given the lack of funds he had compared to Kompany.

[Belgianclaret]

Dyche slipped back to the championship the first time of asking - so probably will VK.
It’s what happens thereafter that will count.
The squad under Dyche were much more robust and experienced, the one we have now much more talented but young and frail, but with a better sale on value

[Papabendi]

But without the money in the first place (almost half a billion) they would never have got to where they are now. That's something we can never compete with.

Brighton ran a net negative transfer spend of between. £50-70M for a number of seasons while they got established. They have bought the odd player for around £20M, very few. The outlier this season was Pedro up at nearly £30M whilst they were recouping serious income from sales. Not all the signings have worked, of course not. But that probably doesn't matter so much when you continually unearth the likes of Mac Allister and Mitoma for very low fees at the same time.


Since around 2019, they've largely balanced spend with income from sales. Last season that ran into a positive £100M and I think they've made over £200M from Chelsea alone over the past few seasons. So the £0.5BN you refer to is over a Premier League lifetime with most of that money recouped. And of course they are now an established Premier League club into the bargain. It looks a rather solid strategy to me, others may beg to differ. But please don't go around throwing out a single number to prove an argument because that never washes.

[Papabendi]

And just as an aside, our transfer strategy this season looks remarkably like a version of theirs from years past.

I guess the likes of Luton and Sheffield Utd will be looking at it with the same shock and awe you have for Brighton's strategy, and pondering the same barriers to entry.

[Spijed]

Brighton ran a net negative transfer spend of between. £50-70M for a number of seasons while they got established. They have bought the odd player for around £20M, very few. The outlier this season was Pedro up at nearly £30M whilst they were recouping serious income from sales. Not all the signings have worked, of course not. But that probably doesn't matter so much when you continually unearth the likes of Mac Allister and Mitoma for very low fees at the same time.


Since around 2019, they've largely balanced spend with income from sales. Last season that ran into a positive £100M and I think they've made over £200M from Chelsea alone over the past few seasons. So the £0.5BN you refer to is over a Premier League lifetime with most of that money recouped. And of course they are now an established Premier League club into the bargain. It looks a rather solid strategy to me, others may beg to differ. But please don't go around throwing out a single number to prove an argument because that never washes.

But the point is they would never have been able to have that negative spend were it not for Tony Bloom's money. That's the whole point. It's an enormous safety net that meant they could run up huge debts whilst building up their transfer strategy.

We can't do that. That's the difference.

[Spijed]

If we can replicate Brighton's strategy why did Tony Bloom have to put so much money in the club if it's possible for other clubs to replicate what Brighton have done without his finances?

[quoonbeatz]

And the irony of your best seasons in the Championship is they all lead back to the Prem. So I guess you have to work out what you want. I guess we could be a PNE, treading water down there if you prefer.

Not sure what your point is here as that's nothing we don't already know. There were plenty of people on here saying when we got promoted it was bittersweet because it means you have to go up to the PL. It's a necessary evil, using the PL money to keep a small club like this towards the top end of the pyramid, but if it means we have a few yoyos then it's worth it.

Just surviving at any level is dull after a while and that's what 3/4 of the teams in their division are doing, including Brighton and Brentford. The ideal is a reset that means everyone has a decent chance of doing something every season but utopia will never come.

[vinrogue]

I decided having read all these comments and thought that this is a balanced thread, I would have a look at last seasons starting teams. I was shocked to be reminded that the back 4 up until December 2022 primarily had Charlie Taylor alongside Harwood-Bellis in the CB positons (memory playing tricks) with Maatsen and Roberts in the FB slots and Muric ever present. Ekdal, Al-D, Beyer, O'Shea, Delcroix, Trafford and any one I have missed or got the spelling wrong were just visions to regain fitness or be bought and come and join us for our PL mission to 12 points and breathing a sigh of relief when Derby County can keep their 11 point record!! UTC
p.s. I remember finishing 7th and European games, I also remember European games in the 60's but I have no idea what I am doing for the rest of today, retirement rocks!!

[Papabendi]

If we can replicate Brighton's strategy why did Tony Bloom have to put so much money in the club if it's possible for other clubs to replicate what Brighton have done without his finances?

We already are doing it. Really the only question now is whether we have a Cucurella, Mac Allister, Mitoma, Caicedo on the books. If you look at the overall spend Burnley have outlayed over the course of our tenure in the Prem League and then our net spend, our net spend far outweights Brighton's for far less return regarding Prem L stature. That, you will find, is the difference.

[Papabendi]

Not sure what your point is here as that's nothing we don't already know. There were plenty of people on here saying when we got promoted it was bittersweet because it means you have to go up to the PL. It's a necessary evil, using the PL money to keep a small club like this towards the top end of the pyramid, but if it means we have a few yoyos then it's worth it.

Just surviving at any level is dull after a while and that's what 3/4 of the teams in their division are doing, including Brighton and Brentford. The ideal is a reset that means everyone has a decent chance of doing something every season but utopia will never come.

Thank you for your reply. More nuanced and balanced than your original post on the matter.