Vince Fontaine wrote: ↑

Tue Aug 13, 2024 12:27 pm

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

I hope I’ve got this link right
UTC

Goddy wrote: ↑

Wed Oct 23, 2024 8:54 am

...and at the top end there were 10 teams at 106 points or more last year at this stage, compared to only 5 this time round (which maybe suggests more teams taking points off each other, perhaps, as well as highlighting our strong start).

Whatever, it's a promising start and fingers crossed another 3 points (minimum) off everyone after a victory at Hull tonight........

Dark Cloud wrote: ↑

Wed Jan 15, 2025 8:59 pm

My maths has never been my strong point (in fact I'm still searching for my strong point of any kind and I'm 66!) and I've regularly struggled with the magic numbers thread, but my perception of them is that they probably work better in a relegation scrap than a promotion race. When we were in the Prem we just needed 3 other teams to hit zero and it was champagne time. In a promotion race, like this one, we need every other team to reach zero bar one for us to go up automatically. Is that correct?

Commy wrote: ↑

Sat Feb 22, 2025 6:57 am

Luton now on 0 with Derby and Plymouth on 1.

mdd2 wrote: ↑

Sun Mar 16, 2025 11:35 am

WBA is 421 depending on their result against Bristol who are also 124, meaning assuming our goal difference holds up we are already in the play offs doesn't it?

Bullabill wrote: ↑

Mon Mar 31, 2025 11:01 pm

I'd like to know how this works. I think I understood it once but I've lost the plot. Is there a treatise somewhere I could look at?

Tribesmen wrote: ↑

Tue Apr 01, 2025 10:59 am

I am glad someone explained it , but I seems a lot of work as it would be easy to say we need to have one point better than Leeds to go up as it stands

mdd2 wrote: ↑

Tue Apr 01, 2025 9:45 am

mutiply the remaining games of each club by 3. add them to the clubs points total.
So as an example Sunderalnd have 72 points and can get another 21=93. We have 81 points so need 13 points to get to 94 points . Coventry have 59 so can get to 59+21=80 points so cant catch us and we need 0 points to stay above them.
Leeds can reach 102 points so we need 22 points to get above them after 46 games. If we both win our next matches we then need 19 points but if we draw and Leeds win we would need 21 points. The first figure in the Table is what that day or weeks results has done for our points needed. As we won all clubs will have at least -3, but if they lost it will be -6 and -5 if they drew
So before the Bristol game we needed 27 points to get above Leeds. They had 80 points and could get to 104, we had 78 and needed 27 (impossible) to get to 105. As we won and they drew the points we now need are 22 points (still impossible) to beat Leeds possible total of 102.
That final figure is the points we theoretically need to be above a club. If 0 or minus it means we stay above them after 46 games no matter.
It is a complicated way of showing what I imagine we all do. Look at the table see what Sunderalnd can get and how many points we need theoretically to stay third.
Rovers fan will be bricking it as presently they need 10 points from 7 games to be sure of staying up.
But those of us who know this league and Stan's predictions know that 52 points is usually enough to stay up so they are OK.
Derby's 9 points in last 3 games and maybe another 3 tonight will have clubs from Stoke downwards sweating.
So magic numbers is Shakespearian "Much ado about nothing"