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Run in
Posted: Tue Nov 26, 2024 9:58 pm
by Goliath
Just had a look at the fixtures out of curiosity.
After Leeds on the 27th Jan, we've pretty much got all of the most difficult games out of the way, the run in from there looks very kind.
If we are top 2 after the Leeds game, we are going to be extremely hard to stop. Probably a good one to help.sell the club to any new signings as well
Re: Run in
Posted: Tue Nov 26, 2024 10:02 pm
by Lip
No easy games in this league mate.
Re: Run in
Posted: Tue Nov 26, 2024 10:03 pm
by expoultryboy
Calm down , one game at a time .
Re: Run in
Posted: Tue Nov 26, 2024 11:42 pm
by HurstGrangeClaret
A few chickens being counted there.
Re: Run in
Posted: Wed Nov 27, 2024 2:20 am
by Sheedyclaret
Then look forward to getting trounced every week in the premier league ..
Re: Run in
Posted: Wed Nov 27, 2024 6:57 am
by equinox
Goliath wrote: ↑Tue Nov 26, 2024 9:58 pm
Probably a good one to help.sell the club to any new signings as well
Do you seriously believe this would make the slightest bit of difference to any potential new signing?
Re: Run in
Posted: Wed Nov 27, 2024 6:59 am
by Row x
Lip wrote: ↑Tue Nov 26, 2024 10:02 pm
No easy games in this league mate.
Last night was
Re: Run in
Posted: Wed Nov 27, 2024 7:12 am
by MrTopTier
7 out of the next 10 games are against teams in the top 10.
One game at a time.
Re: Run in
Posted: Wed Nov 27, 2024 7:23 am
by equinox
MrTopTier wrote: ↑Wed Nov 27, 2024 7:12 am
7 out of the next 10 games are against teams in the top 10.
One game at a time.
All our remaining games are against teams that will start the game with 11 players on the pitch.
Re: Run in
Posted: Wed Nov 27, 2024 7:33 am
by The Hung Juror
Your view is based on current form, who knows what's going to happen between now and then.
Re: Run in
Posted: Wed Nov 27, 2024 8:02 am
by bfcjg
Nah, we'll beat bstards !
Re: Run in
Posted: Wed Nov 27, 2024 8:19 am
by Goliath
equinox wrote: ↑Wed Nov 27, 2024 6:57 am
Do you seriously believe this would make the slightest bit of difference to any potential new signing?
Whether we are likely to get promoted to the Premier League?
I think it would be our single biggest selling point yes.
Re: Run in
Posted: Wed Nov 27, 2024 8:20 am
by Goliath
MrTopTier wrote: ↑Wed Nov 27, 2024 7:12 am
7 out of the next 10 games are against teams in the top 10.
One game at a time.
Ye the hardest run of the season is m from about now until the Leeds game. If we can come out of that in the top 2 we are sitting very pretty
Re: Run in
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:12 pm
by Goliath
3 games left of the toughest run of the season by far. With the points total in recent weeks being so good, things are looking even more promising.
If we can get just 1 win from the next 3 and avoid defeat against Leeds then we really would be in a fantastic position.
Re: Run in
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:16 pm
by Vegas Claret
we've done far better against the better sides, this could be a 3 way fight on the last day
Re: Run in
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:17 pm
by JR1882
We make harder work of the bottom half teams so I don’t think it’s necessarily a good thing.
Re: Run in
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:19 pm
by ElectroClaret
And only Watford out of the top ten to play away.
(Actually we're playing better away)
But some very winnable games coming up, if we
shape ourselves.
Re: Run in
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:21 pm
by Stonehouse
Vegas Claret wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:16 pm
we've done far better against the better sides, this could be a 3 way fight on the last day
Empty heads on the Rovers site play Sheff Utd last game of the season away and are hoping to lose it if it stops us going up,wouldn’t be comical if Sheffield needed a point to stop us going up and Rovers beat them,the fans would be fuming.
Re: Run in
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:25 pm
by mdd2
Goliath wrote: ↑Tue Nov 26, 2024 9:58 pm
Just had a look at the fixtures out of curiosity.
After Leeds on the 27th Jan, we've pretty much got all of the most difficult games out of the way, the run in from there looks very kind.
If we are top 2 after the Leeds game, we are going to be extremely hard to stop. Probably a good one to help.sell the club to any new signings as well
Our problem has been getting home draws against poor teams like QPR PNE Stoke Derby done ok against better teams although to draw half your home games is poor for a team in the top six but balanced by better away results
8 wins from 14 is some performance given who we have beaten Leeds Utd Rovers and Norwich
Just hope we do the business in 2025 against the less able teams
Re: Run in
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:26 pm
by mdd2
It’s was Sheffield
Re: Run in
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:28 pm
by warksclaret
We also seem to play better and win against the top sides. We need to find a way of beating the lower teams on a consistent basis
Re: Run in
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:33 pm
by Colburn_Claret
warksclaret wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:28 pm
We also seem to play better and win against the top sides. We need to find a way of beating the lower teams on a consistent basis
It would help if we started creating some chances against them.
I don't want to spoil a great day, but it isn't as though we've been unlucky, we've just been very poor. For all the great wins away from home, SP has us set up to play so negatively on the Turf, that every game is a yawnfest. It's an easy fix, but I'm still holding my breath.
Re: Run in
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:43 pm
by Sheedyclaret
We’ve been dreadful at home against the so called lesser teams
Re: Run in
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:45 pm
by Bosscat
Sheedyclaret wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:43 pm
We’ve been dreadful at home against the so called lesser teams
We ain't been bad away at top six teams though
Re: Run in
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:47 pm
by Bosscat
As someone pointed out Win away and draw at home and we will be promoted
Re: Run in
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 7:45 pm
by Elizabeth
Colburn_Claret wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 6:33 pm
It would help if we started creating some chances against them.
I don't want to spoil a great day, but it isn't as though we've been unlucky, we've just been very poor. For all the great wins away from home, SP has us set up to play so negatively on the Turf, that every game is a yawnfest. It's an easy fix, but I'm still holding my breath.
I doubt Parker will be contacting you about this easy fix you know about.
Re: Run in
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 9:03 pm
by agreenwood
We’ve now played all of the top 8 away from home. In fact we’ve played 10 of the top half away from home.
Re: Run in
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 9:55 pm
by Roosterbooster
Home record:
P 12 W 6 D 6 L 0 Pts 24
Away record:
P 14 W 8 D 4 L 2 Pts 28
Home v Top 12:
P 4 W 2 D 2 L 0 Pts 8
Home v Bottom 12:
P 8 W 4 D 4 L 0 Pts 16
Away v Top 12:
P 9 W 6 D 2 L 1 Pts 20
Away v Bottom 12:
P 5 W 2 D 2 L 1 Pts 8
Still to play:
Home: Sunderland (4th), Leeds (1st), Oxford (17th), Sheff Wed (10th), Luton (20th), WBA (6th), Bristol City (8th), Norwich (11th), Sheff Utd (3rd), Millwall (13th)
Away: Plymouth (24th), Portsmouth (21st), Preston (14th), Cardiff (23rd), Swansea (12th), Coventry (15th), Derby (18th), Watford (9th), QPR (16th)
Re: Run in
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 9:59 pm
by Goliath
Roosterbooster wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 9:55 pm
Home record:
P 12 W 6 D 6 L 0 Pts 24
Away record:
P 14 W 8 D 4 L 2 Pts 28
Home v Top 12:
P 4 W 2 D 2 L 0 Pts 8
Home v Bottom 12:
P 8 W 4 D 4 L 0 Pts 16
Away v Top 12:
P 9 W 6 D 2 L 1 Pts 20
Away v Bottom 12:
P 5 W 2 D 2 L 1 Pts 8
Still to play:
Home: Sunderland (4th), Leeds (1st), Oxford (17th), Sheff Wed (10th), Luton (20th), WBA (6th), Bristol City (8th), Norwich (11th), Sheff Utd (3rd), Millwall (13th)
Away: Plymouth (24th), Portsmouth (21st), Preston (14th), Cardiff (23rd), Swansea (12th), Coventry (15th), Derby (18th), Watford (9th), QPR (16th)
It's ours to throw away if we are top 2 after the Leeds game.
Re: Run in
Posted: Sat Jan 04, 2025 10:45 pm
by Spijed
Roosterbooster wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 9:55 pm
Home record:
P 12 W 6 D 6 L 0 Pts 24
Away record:
P 14 W 8 D 4 L 2 Pts 28
Home v Top 12:
P 4 W 2 D 2 L 0 Pts 8
Home v Bottom 12:
P 8 W 4 D 4 L 0 Pts 16
Away v Top 12:
P 9 W 6 D 2 L 1 Pts 20
Away v Bottom 12:
P 5 W 2 D 2 L 1 Pts 8
Still to play:
Home: Sunderland (4th), Leeds (1st), Oxford (17th), Sheff Wed (10th), Luton (20th), WBA (6th), Bristol City (8th), Norwich (11th), Sheff Utd (3rd), Millwall (13th)
Away: Plymouth (24th), Portsmouth (21st), Preston (14th), Cardiff (23rd), Swansea (12th), Coventry (15th), Derby (18th), Watford (9th), QPR (16th)
You'd like to think that none of the teams we play away will defend deep (although Oxford did), as they are at home so should be looking to win virtually all those games.
And looking at our home games you'd think a few of those sides will be as open as Watford.
Promotion is ours to lose
Re: Run in
Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2025 9:24 am
by scouseclaret
Roosterbooster wrote: ↑Sat Jan 04, 2025 9:55 pm
Home record:
P 12 W 6 D 6 L 0 Pts 24
Away record:
P 14 W 8 D 4 L 2 Pts 28
Home v Top 12:
P 4 W 2 D 2 L 0 Pts 8
Home v Bottom 12:
P 8 W 4 D 4 L 0 Pts 16
Away v Top 12:
P 9 W 6 D 2 L 1 Pts 20
Away v Bottom 12:
P 5 W 2 D 2 L 1 Pts 8
Still to play:
Home: Sunderland (4th), Leeds (1st), Oxford (17th), Sheff Wed (10th), Luton (20th), WBA (6th), Bristol City (8th), Norwich (11th), Sheff Utd (3rd), Millwall (13th)
Away: Plymouth (24th), Portsmouth (21st), Preston (14th), Cardiff (23rd), Swansea (12th), Coventry (15th), Derby (18th), Watford (9th), QPR (16th)
Looking at those remaining away fixtures, our away record could/should be truly spectacular by the end of the season…
Re: Run in
Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2025 9:33 am
by Roosterbooster
Only just realised this, but we have taken same proportion of points available at home as away. And our worst record is away against the bottom half (although admittedly skewed having only played 5, and if we beat Plymouth goes up to 61%, if we also beat Portsmouth, goes up to 67%)
Home record: 67%
Away record: 67%
Home v Top 12: 67%
Home v Bottom 12: 67%
Away v Top 12: 83%
Away v Bottom 12: 53%
Re: Run in
Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2025 9:37 am
by TheFamilyCat
We've played every once, and two teams twice. We've virtually the full league to play once, like everyone else.
How is this easier for us?
Re: Run in
Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2025 9:39 am
by BabylonClaret
Interesting stats and blows awaybrhusnidea that we have been crap at home - it's been harder as teams play the team behind the ball but we have still win as many as we have draw.
Re: Run in
Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:03 am
by Rowls
Our run in looks easy on paper.
However we’ve struggled more against teams who refuse to tango rather than teams who want to have a go.
Re: Run in
Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:10 am
by Roosterbooster
TheFamilyCat wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 9:37 am
We've played every once, and two teams twice. We've virtually the full league to play once, like everyone else.
How is this easier for us?
I think the argument is that you'd expect away games against the top 6 to be the hardest. So far we've beaten 1st and 3rd away from home, and drawn against 5th and 6th. We've also beaten 7th, 8th, 10th and 11th. Also only have 9th and 12th to play away from home from top half.
But I agree, it isn't that simple. On paper we have a decent enough run in, especially after Leeds at home. But statistically we are only on for 80pts based on our form (home and away, and top v bottom half). That's usually not enough for top 2
Re: Run in
Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:10 am
by burnleycclaret
What are people's thoughts on Barnes being key against these lower-table teams? We've tried to pass our way through 11 (12 at times) men sitting back instead of throwing it into the mixer for the likes of Flemming and Barnes.
Re: Run in
Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:26 am
by Roosterbooster
burnleycclaret wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:10 am
What are people's thoughts on Barnes being key against these lower-table teams? We've tried to pass our way through 11 (12 at times) men sitting back instead of throwing it into the mixer for the likes of Flemming and Barnes.
Need better delivery if we are gonna make that work. Admittedly both Flemming v Blackburn, and Brownhill v Sheff U were superb crosses. But both from a LB. Last goal we scored from a winger's cross was.......
Hull away
16 games ago
Re: Run in
Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:28 am
by burnleycclaret
Roosterbooster wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:26 am
Need better delivery if we are gonna make that work. Admittedly both Flemming v Blackburn, and Brownhill v Sheff U were superb crosses. But both from a LB. Last goal we scored from a winger's cross was.......
Hull away
16 games ago
I was thinking more of his physicality in the box. So yeah headers straight from the cross but also Barnes just being a pain in the backside in and around the box and being more direct in some situations.
Re: Run in
Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:37 am
by mdd2
MrTopTier wrote: ↑Wed Nov 27, 2024 7:12 am
7 out of the next 10 games are against teams in the top 10.
One game at a time.
W5 D4 F10 A3 PTS 19 the 7th team Sunderland, up next.
Our form thus far suggests we should fear the lower clubs more than the top half teams
I know league positions change but of the present bottom 12 our stats are P 13 W6 D6 L1 Pts 24 F17 A4
Top 11 (cant count us) P13 W8 D4 L1 PTS 28 F14 A5
Re: Run in
Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:41 am
by burnleycclaret
Regarding our points top vs bottom I think there are too many variables to forecast the rest of the season.
Re: Run in
Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2025 12:19 pm
by Rileybobs
Roosterbooster wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:10 am
But I agree, it isn't that simple. On paper we have a decent enough run in, especially after Leeds at home. But statistically we are only on for 80pts based on our form (home and away, and top v bottom half). That's usually not enough for top 2
Surely a better indication of our points return would be the 2 points per game that we’ve averaged over the 26 games played to date, which would result in 92 points over a season.
It would take a significant drop in form for us to finish with just 80 points.
Re: Run in
Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2025 12:25 pm
by Big Vinny K
Roosterbooster wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:26 am
Need better delivery if we are gonna make that work. Admittedly both Flemming v Blackburn, and Brownhill v Sheff U were superb crosses. But both from a LB. Last goal we scored from a winger's cross was.......
Hull away
16 games ago
Classic UTC…..”the last goal we scored from a winger’s cross”….
When was the last goal we scored from a cross from the wing ?
Re: Run in
Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2025 12:26 pm
by taio
Roosterbooster wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 10:10 am
I think the argument is that you'd expect away games against the top 6 to be the hardest. So far we've beaten 1st and 3rd away from home, and drawn against 5th and 6th. We've also beaten 7th, 8th, 10th and 11th. Also only have 9th and 12th to play away from home from top half.
But I agree, it isn't that simple. On paper we have a decent enough run in, especially after Leeds at home. But statistically we are only on for 80pts based on our form (home and away, and top v bottom half). That's usually not enough for top 2
When you say statistically 80 points, how is this calculated?
Re: Run in
Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2025 12:32 pm
by Spijed
I'd say we are also better placed with a tighter defence than teams that score plenty.
Leeds have scored four goals in their last two games but only gained two points.
Whereas we scored one goal in the last two but gained four points.
Re: Run in
Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2025 12:32 pm
by Roosterbooster
Rileybobs wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 12:19 pm
Surely a better indication of our points return would be the 2 points per game that we’ve averaged over the 26 games played to date, which would result in 92 points over a season.
It would take a significant drop in form for us to finish with just 80 points.
Here's my working:
Avg pts per game so far:
Home v Top 12 - 2
Home v Bottom 12 - 2
Away v Top 12 - 2.49
Away v Bottom 12 - 1.59
Games to go:
Home v Top 12 - 7
Home v Bottom 12 - 4
Away v Top 12 - 2
Away v Bottom 12 - 7
Expected points in remaining games:
Home v Top 12 - 2x7=14
Home v Bottom 12 - 2x4=8
Away v Top 12 - 2.49x2=5
Away v Bottom 12 - 1.59x7=11
Total = 14+8+5+11=38
38+52=90
Must have forgotten to carry a 1
Re: Run in
Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2025 12:42 pm
by Rileybobs
Roosterbooster wrote: ↑Sun Jan 05, 2025 12:32 pm
Here's my working:
Avg pts per game so far:
Home v Top 12 - 2
Home v Bottom 12 - 2
Away v Top 12 - 2.49
Away v Bottom 12 - 1.59
Games to go:
Home v Top 12 - 7
Home v Bottom 12 - 4
Away v Top 12 - 2
Away v Bottom 12 - 7
Expected points in remaining games:
Home v Top 12 - 2x7=14
Home v Bottom 12 - 2x4=8
Away v Top 12 - 2.49x2=5
Away v Bottom 12 - 1.59x7=11
Total = 14+8+5+11=38
38+52=90
Must have forgotten to carry a 1
Seems an overly complicated way of getting to roughly 2 points per game which we are averaging.
Re: Run in
Posted: Sun Jan 05, 2025 12:52 pm
by kentonclaret
You only have to check the Championship Predictions League and the latest round of results to see that well over 90% of entries predicted wins yesterday for Stoke, Middlesbrough and Leeds. But Plymouth, Cardiff and Hull are battling for survival so in the latter half of the season not all games go with the form table or according to league position.
Re: Run in
Posted: Mon Jan 06, 2025 11:55 am
by IanMcL
At the end of the season, the bottom clubs play out of their skin to stay up. The top clubs throw everything into wins and sometimes come unstuck and the middle teams are trying for that ladt play off place!
Nothing predictable or easy.
Up the Clarets.
Re: Run in
Posted: Sat Jan 18, 2025 6:33 pm
by Goliath
2 huge games coming up. If we can come out of it with 4 points we really are looking in good shape, Leeds have a really tricky period in Feb/March so we need to get the pressure on them.
On top of coming to Turf Moor next week, they have Watford away, Sunderland at home, Sheff Utd away and West Brom at home in four consecutive weeks through Feb. It's a horrible run and even if they win them all then it means the other 2 have dropped points. It's crunch time, we can't afford to throw points away against sides lower down the division anymore.
