We aint catching them. Leeds are on track for 100 points, Sheff u for 98.
Getting to 98+ points is a bridge to far for us this year. Shame, but all things considered the lads are doing us proud.
It aint over til its over but im preparing myself for the stress of the play offs.

UTC

They will both drop points in the last batch of games
It wont be a rout

If Leeds beat Sheff Utd and we beat Sheff Utd we are back in it (providing we can beat weaker teams)

kevinlasagne wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:13 pm

We aint catching them. Leeds are on track for 100 points, Sheff u for 98.
Getting to 98+ points is a bridge to far for us this year. Shame, but all things considered the lads are doing us proud.
It aint over til its over but im preparing myself for the stress of the play offs.

UTC

Pathetic post! 39 points still to play for!

Nowhere near over yet! I still think we'll do it, with Edwards being the catalyst we need

If our players shared the same defeatist attitude as some of our fans everyone would be going mad at them. Still lots to play for.

We’re gonna win the league

Said the other day mathematically the odds are massively against us now.

We need to win best part of 10 games out of the last 13 including against Sheffield to get close.

kevinlasagne wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:13 pm

We aint catching them. Leeds are on track for 100 points, Sheff u for 98.
Getting to 98+ points is a bridge to far for us this year. Shame, but all things considered the lads are doing us proud.
It aint over til its over but im preparing myself for the stress of the play offs.

UTC

Thank god we won’t rely on you to see the Season through.
You might even turn out to be right but have some backbone!

Good cast!



Haven't we just had one of these threads?

Newcastleclaret93 wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:22 pm

Said the other day mathematically the odds are massively against us now.

We need to win best part of 10 games out of the last 13 including against Sheffield to get close.

We’ve got another 6/7 draws in us yet this season. Realistic view is it’s gonna be the playoffs

Mud, mud, glorious mud
Nothing quite like it for cooling the blood
So follow me follow, down to the hollow
And there let me wallow in glorious mud

Milltown1882 wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:23 pm

We’ve got another 6/7 draws in us yet this season. Realistic view is it’s gonna be the playoffs

Brownhill and Flemming the only players to score more than 3 goals this season in the league and neither of them have cracked double figures yet.

Milltown1882 wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:23 pm

We’ve got another 6/7 draws in us yet this season. Realistic view is it’s gonna be the playoffs

Yep I think third place on around 92 points.

Unfortunately a great season but we have left it to late to change our approach and we won’t get top two

Just one thing to throw in - Sheff UTD are s hite !

Newcastleclaret93 wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:22 pm

Said the other day mathematically the odds are massively against us now.

We need to win best part of 10 games out of the last 13 including against Sheffield to get close.

10 wins and 3 draws puts us on 98 points

Newcastleclaret93 wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:22 pm

Said the other day mathematically the odds are massively against us now.

We need to win best part of 10 games out of the last 13 including against Sheffield to get close.

The bookies have us at 15/8 for a top 2 finish. So as usual you are exaggerating your point by claiming the odds are massively against us. At present a play off position is more likely, but the situation could be completely different in a couple of games time.

Bowclaret wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:25 pm

Just one thing to throw in - Sheff UTD are s hite !

Won 30 percent more games than us this season and had points reduction

Bowclaret wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:25 pm

Just one thing to throw in - Sheff UTD are s hite !

Can’t be that shite. They’re 5 points ahead, even with that -2 points they started with.

Rileybobs wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:26 pm

The bookies have us at 15/8 for a top 2 finish. So as usual you are exaggerating your point by claiming the odds are massively against us. At present a play off position is more likely, but the situation could be completely different in a couple of games time.

Mathematical odds and bettings odds are two different things you realise?

Newcastleclaret93 wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:26 pm

Mathematical odds and bettings odds are two different things you realise?

Yes, I realise. Please can you tell me what are the mathematical odds of us finishing in the top two?

Newcastleclaret93 wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:26 pm

Mathematical odds and bettings odds are two different things you realise?

Explain how they both work. I’m off to make a brew, but I’ll come back and have a sit down whilst you explain it to us.

Looking forward to it.

agreenwood wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:28 pm

Explain how they both work. I’m off to make a brew, but I’ll come back and have a sit down whilst you explain it to us.

Looking forward to it.

One is based on how many people bet on it and the other is based on percentage chances of results.

So Burnley on average win 50% of there games.

Sheffield on average win 66% of there games.

Sheffield will end up 96 points plus.

Burnley won’t. Simple really

Newcastleclaret93 wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:31 pm

One is based on how many people bet on it and the other is based on percentage chances of results.

So Burnley on average win 50% of there games.

Sheffield on average win 66% of there games.

Sheffield will end up 96 points plus.

Burnley won’t. Simple really

You think bookmakers odds are based purely on how many people place a bet on a certain outcome?

Rileybobs wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:33 pm

You think bookmakers odds are based purely on how many people place a bet on a certain outcome?

No but that’s a factor

Leeds gone by a distance in the bookies eyes

willsclarets wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:18 pm

Nowhere near over yet! I still think we'll do it, with Edwards being the catalyst we need

I genuinely hope you're right but i think the difference between us and leeds/SU is the willingness to go balls to the wall to secure late wins.
As we just saw, leeds went for the jugular and reaped the rewards in a tight game against top opposition. Would SP do the same? or would he settle for the draw?

Newcastleclaret93 wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:33 pm

No but that’s a factor

Well of course it is. Do you think the bookies would have shortened Leeds’ odds of a top two finish after tonight’s result if nobody placed a bet?

Newcastleclaret93 wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:31 pm

One is based on how many people bet on it and the other is based on percentage chances of results.

So Burnley on average win 50% of there games.

Sheffield on average win 66% of there games.

Sheffield will end up 96 points plus.

Burnley won’t. Simple really

Been a long time since I did my maths GCSE, but I don’t think that’s how probability works. All you’ve done there is show what happens if absolutely nothing changes between now and the end of the season.

You’d definitely get excellent odds on those win percentages remaining exactly the same over the next 3 months.

agreenwood wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:40 pm

Been a long time since I did my maths GCSE, but I don’t think that’s how probability works. All you’ve done there is show what happens if absolutely nothing changes between now and the end of the season.

You’d definitely get excellent odds on those win percentages remaining exactly the same over the next 3 months.

It’s an average off course it might go up and down slightly but the trends are there throughout the season.

It would take a massive change from Burnley to get close to them. Our goals scored per game would have to dramatically increase (currently not scored in 42 percent of our games).

We have the easiest run in. No team can score against us and we have Sheff UTD to come at home. We have Edwards to come in who is a game changer and the bench is looking much much stronger now with the returning players.

Lots of football to be played yet

What a loser.

Bowclaret wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:43 pm

We have the easiest run in. No team can score against us and we have Sheff UTD to come at home. We have Edwards to come in who is a game changer and the bench is looking much much stronger now with the returning players.

Lots of football to be played yet

Our worst form this season has came since we haven’t conceded. I personally think it’s harming us

Newcastleclaret93 wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:42 pm

It’s an average off course it might go up and down slightly but the trends are there throughout the season.

It would take a massive change from Burnley to get close to them. Our goals scored per game would have to dramatically increase (currently not scored in 42 percent of our games).

We’re less than two wins off Sheffield United. If by “massive change” you mean we could be above them as soon as 10pm on 4 March, then yes I agree.

agreenwood wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:46 pm

We’re less than two wins off Sheffield United. If by “massive change” you mean we could be above them as soon as 10pm on 4 March, then yes I agree.

The big change is do you believe between now and the end of the season we will win 2 more games than a team that has won 30 percent more games than us this season.

The change is they will win around 9 games between now and the end of the season and we will need more than that.

Bowclaret wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:43 pm

We have the easiest run in. No team can score against us and we have Sheff UTD to come at home. We have Edwards to come in who is a game changer and the bench is looking much much stronger now with the returning players.

Lots of football to be played yet

Do we have the easiest run in? Our last 5 games look tough to me

Newcastleclaret93 wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:45 pm

Our worst form this season has came since we haven’t conceded. I personally think it’s harming us

I’m probably more pessimistic than optimistic, but bloody hell, you could sap the life out of Superman.

Whilst it’s still achievable, there’s hope. You yourself reckoned that Edward’s could have a huge bearing on us being more effective at the other end of the pitch.

We get that we aren’t favourites for automatic.

Bowclaret wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:43 pm

We have the easiest run in. No team can score against us and we have Sheff UTD to come at home. We have Edwards to come in who is a game changer and the bench is looking much much stronger now with the returning players.

Lots of football to be played yet

Bold statement about teams not scoring against us with our 0-0 record this season and expecting that to contend with the top 2 in the run in.

DCWat wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:51 pm

I’m probably more pessimistic than optimistic, but bloody hell, you could sap the life out of Superman.

Whilst it’s still achievable, there’s hope. You yourself reckoned that Edward’s could have a huge bearing on us being more effective at the other end of the pitch.

We get that we aren’t favourited for automatic.

I hope we do it but I’ve just resigned to the fact that even with the best intentions (if Edwards does make a big difference which i think he will) we will need one of Sheffield or Leeds to not win 6 of there next 13 games to give us a chance.

I hope Sheffield lose against Leeds to give us a sniff but I suspect the club are preparing for the play offs

Newcastleclaret93 wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:49 pm

The big change is do you believe between now and the end of the season we will win 2 more games than a team that has won 30 percent more games than us this season.

The change is they will win around 9 games between now and the end of the season and we will need more than that.

Here’s some maths. Sheff Utd have picked up 0.21 points per game more than us. To overturn this deficit we will need to pick up 0.54 points per game more than them over the next 13 games. This could be a 0.27 ppg improvement from us and a 0.27 ppg deterioration from them. This is hardly massive. Then when you consider that their next fixture is against Leeds United who are on a seemingly unstoppable run, and they have to come to Burnley for a one-off fixture where anything can happen, it’s fair to say you’ve exaggerated the actual probability of us catching them.

If I had to put money on it, I would back Sheff Utd, but there’s a long way to go and the margins are fine.

Newcastleclaret93 wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:53 pm

I hope we do it but I’ve just resigned to the fact that even with the best intentions (if Edwards does make a big difference which i think he will) we will need one of Sheffield or Leeds to not win 6 of there next 13 games to give us a chance.

I hope Sheffield lose against Leeds to give us a sniff but I suspect the club are preparing for the play offs

I'm worse than you. I said right from the off that without a striker we would come 3rd or 4th.

Pointless, going back on that point of view when it actually looks like we are going to come 3rd or 4th.

But it will be close I think Sheffield United for one will lose games.

Newcastleclaret93 wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:49 pm

The big change is do you believe between now and the end of the season we will win 2 more games than a team that has won 30 percent more games than us this season.

The change is they will win around 9 games between now and the end of the season and we will need more than that.

I think you’re misunderstanding the point that some posters have been making since the weekend.

I’m not sure if we’ll finish in the top two. It’s well and truly in the balance. However, what’s irked me since Saturday is the exaggerated description of the situation we’re in. It’s not unrealistic to think that we might finish in the automatic places, whether that’s due to an improvement in our points average or a decline in someone else’s (or both). It doesn’t mean it’ll happen and maybe we do finish 3rd or 4th, but at this stage I find it really weird just how quickly people have written this team off.

agreenwood wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 17, 2025 11:03 pm

I think you’re misunderstanding the point that some posters have been making since the weekend.

I’m not sure if we’ll finish in the top two. It’s well and truly in the balance. However, what’s irked me since Saturday is the exaggerated description of the situation we’re in. It’s not unrealistic to think that we might finish in the automatic places, whether that’s due to an improvement in our points average or a decline in someone else’s (or both). It doesn’t mean it’ll happen and maybe we do finish 3rd or 4th, but at this stage I find it really weird just how quickly people have written this team off.

It’s not writing them off. I hope they do it.

The reality is they won’t.

Newcastleclaret93 wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 17, 2025 11:04 pm

It’s not writing them off. I hope they do it.

The reality is they won’t.

“I’m not writing them off, but they won’t go up”.

agreenwood wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 17, 2025 11:03 pm

I think you’re misunderstanding the point that some posters have been making since the weekend.

I’m not sure if we’ll finish in the top two. It’s well and truly in the balance. However, what’s irked me since Saturday is the exaggerated description of the situation we’re in. It’s not unrealistic to think that we might finish in the automatic places, whether that’s due to an improvement in our points average or a decline in someone else’s (or both). It doesn’t mean it’ll happen and maybe we do finish 3rd or 4th, but at this stage I find it really weird just how quickly people have written this team off.

I'm just glad that the lads haven't written themselves off and still run themselves into the ground every game.

Really is embarrassing what has happened to some of our 'support'.

Rileybobs wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 17, 2025 10:57 pm

Here’s some maths. Sheff Utd have picked up 0.21 points per game more than us. To overturn this deficit we will need to pick up 0.54 points per game more than them over the next 13 games. This could be a 0.27 ppg improvement from us and a 0.27 ppg deterioration from them. This is hardly massive. Then when you consider that their next fixture is against Leeds United who are on a seemingly unstoppable run, and they have to come to Burnley for a one-off fixture where anything can happen, it’s fair to say you’ve exaggerated the actual probability of us catching them.

If I had to put money on it, I would back Sheff Utd, but there’s a long way to go and the margins are fine.

Maths aside what it boils down to is whether Parker will try to attack more or whether he'll just use the same safe tactics we've already seen.
For me if he was going to do that he would have started 2-3 games ago.
Parker has been good for us overall but i'm worried that his inclination towards safety is his achilles heel.

agreenwood wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 17, 2025 11:03 pm

I think you’re misunderstanding the point that some posters have been making since the weekend.

I’m not sure if we’ll finish in the top two. It’s well and truly in the balance. However, what’s irked me since Saturday is the exaggerated description of the situation we’re in. It’s not unrealistic to think that we might finish in the automatic places, whether that’s due to an improvement in our points average or a decline in someone else’s (or both). It doesn’t mean it’ll happen and maybe we do finish 3rd or 4th, but at this stage I find it really weird just how quickly people have written this team off.

Some people just lack any nuance. It’s the same as those who were claiming we’d win the league after beating Hull on Wednesday. If (big if) we win on Friday and Leeds beat Sheff Utd on Monday then we will be two points behind Sheff Utd with them still to play and no doubt the same people will be getting giddy.

agreenwood wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 17, 2025 11:05 pm

“I’m not writing them off, but they won’t go up”.

They will go up play offs regardless

Newcastleclaret93 wrote: ↑

Mon Feb 17, 2025 11:08 pm

They will go up play offs regardless

I mean, there’s a whole new can of worms there if you’re saying we won’t win enough of our remaining games (largely against teams outside the top 6) to finish in the top two, but will then be able to win at least 66% of our play off games….

…but I’ll leave you to ponder that and wish you goodnight.

Our problem has been dropping points when leading off the weekend games - we have been better playing catch up. Sadly we have another shitty Friday game again this week.