Falcon wrote: ↑

Thu Apr 03, 2025 2:29 pm

It's that time of year again when a lot of people have their only bet of the year!

I have drawn Stumptown in the work's sweepstake, which appears to be one of the favourites.

What do our resident horse racing experts think though?
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I’m no expert but a so called “expert” told me last week to bet on Stumptown, good luck

Claretitus wrote: ↑

Thu Apr 03, 2025 8:43 pm

Dusty Carpet for me. It’ll take some beating.

dougcollins wrote: ↑

Thu Apr 03, 2025 9:58 pm

It Mite be too slow.

THEWELLERNUT70 wrote: ↑

Fri Apr 04, 2025 1:43 pm

A quick rule of thumb for "the modern version" of the Grand National

Age 8-10
Weight - Carrying less than 11st 6
Jumping ability - no more than 1 fall in the current season
Betting - first 8 to 10 in the betting at off time
Fitness - has run within the last 60 days
Distance - has won at least once over 3 miles

bfccrazy wrote: ↑

Fri Apr 04, 2025 6:11 pm

Who fits the bill here the most then?

bfccrazy wrote: ↑

Fri Apr 04, 2025 6:11 pm

Who fits the bill here the most then?

Bosscat wrote: ↑

Sat Apr 05, 2025 4:13 pm

Hope Broadway Boy gets up that fall didn't look good

Aclaret wrote: ↑

Sat Apr 05, 2025 6:15 pm

Thought he was a goner when seeing it, seemed to fall on his neck.....apparently survived the fall and being assessed so I've just read. Hopefully good news.

THEWELLERNUT70 wrote: ↑

Sun Apr 06, 2025 5:29 pm

His trainer reported this morning that Broadway Boy was on his way back home in his horse box

AlargeClaret wrote: ↑

Sun Apr 06, 2025 5:54 pm

While it’s still a top spectacle, the modern race truly is a pale shadow of its former self . The “ modern “ national is simply a fast run ,good ground stamina fest with jumping being almost secondary.While safety really had to be improved , many fences are now almost laughable in parts.

The flipside being top horses , rare fatalities,less injured jockeys so not all bad , though one feels they should have left the original Beechers /Chair / water jump ( perhaps just on the 1st circuit ) . At one time the 2nd circuit of the canal was a truly iconic and exiting moment in major sports , as the remaining contenders gathered , jumping full stretch on the turn .
Regardless of my reverie , it was a good race yesterday and all back safe and sound .

THEWELLERNUT70 wrote: ↑

Sun Apr 06, 2025 11:15 pm

I agree to an extent having been a veteran of 30 consecutive Nationals between 1989 to 2019 ( even going back for the Monday National). However Beechers had to be changed after the 1989 debacle that saw Brown Windsor slide back into the brook when it was still an open stream and the modified fences that came in after 2012 were much needed to to move with the times. The only thing they got wrong then was the shape of the fence because it encouraged speed and anyone that understands National Hunt racing knows speed is the biggest danger hence the have been modified since.

Yesterday's winner was the greatest weight carrying performance since Many Clouds and before that Red Rum. Just as an aside Nick Rockett gained 27 lengths when jumping a fence over last year winner I Am Maximus in the race which is a mental stat, so the ability to jump is still a massive factor

kentonclaret wrote: ↑

Mon Apr 07, 2025 2:18 pm

How easy the Grand National course has now become to jump was highlighted in last Friday’s Topham Trophy where, in a field of around 30 runners, there were no fallers (one jockey unseated) and 5 or 6 horses were pulled up.
I would not give any credence to records set over the modified course comparing them to times recorded or weight carried over the old style fences. The greatest weight carrying performance I witnessed in the Grand National was by the top weight Crisp in 1973, who was only overhauled by Red Rum on the run-in who was only carrying a feather weight. The subsequent performances of Red Rum showed that Crisp faced a mere impossible task. For anybody who hasn’t seen the race it is well worth a watch.

THEWELLERNUT70 wrote: ↑

Mon Apr 07, 2025 6:34 pm

I was reading something this morning around the last two Nationals and since the reduction in field size that it appears ( in those two at least ) that weight is no longer the stopper it used to be as only one of the top 5 home in the last two Nationals had carried less than 11st 6 which is an interesting trend. Instead it's suggested that stamina more than ever is the main requirement and also a "hold up horse" as both I Am Maximus in 2024 and Nick Rockett this year were both held in 11th approaching the third last and then came through late to take the race and those at the head of the field ran out of gas. Not 1 of the first 5 passing the winning post 1st time round finished in the places. An interesting development