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What's happened to you need 40 points to survive ??
Posted: Mon May 05, 2025 7:08 pm
by kenyon6923
Last 2 seasons looks like 27 points is enough to survive, has the gulf widened that much ?? It's 4 wins less.
Re: What's happened to you need 40 points to survive ??
Posted: Mon May 05, 2025 7:14 pm
by Clockwork Claret
?
23/24 season Forest finished 17 on 32 points with a 4 point deduction
24/25 West Ham are 17th on 37 points, 3 to play
Re: What's happened to you need 40 points to survive ??
Posted: Mon May 05, 2025 7:18 pm
by NewClaret
Yep you still need 40 points. Hard to see us getting 10+ wins and 10 draws next season when you look at it that way.
Re: What's happened to you need 40 points to survive ??
Posted: Mon May 05, 2025 7:27 pm
by dsr
If we are to survive next season, we will need closer to 40 than 30. We might need 40. The chances are the existing 17 clubs could get by with 30, but equally, the chances are that they will all get more.
The clubs just outside the bottom three, like West Ham, Tottenham, or Man United, needed only 30 or so to survive this year, and they all got more. The newly promoted three teams, they did need 40.
Re: What's happened to you need 40 points to survive ??
Posted: Mon May 05, 2025 7:43 pm
by ChrisG
Clockwork Claret wrote: ↑Mon May 05, 2025 7:14 pm
?
23/24 season Forest finished 17 on 32 points with a 4 point deduction
24/25 West Ham are 17th on 37 points, 3 to play
It's somewhat irrelevant what 17th finished on, you need to look at 18th and get one more point than that
Re: What's happened to you need 40 points to survive ??
Posted: Mon May 05, 2025 8:04 pm
by martin_p
The Championship was reassuringly consistent. 50 points good enough to stay up, 91 (just less than the standard 2 points per game) would have been good enough for automatic promotion.
Re: What's happened to you need 40 points to survive ??
Posted: Mon May 05, 2025 8:16 pm
by Vegas Claret
what happened ?........
Re: What's happened to you need 40 points to survive ??
Posted: Mon May 05, 2025 8:39 pm
by dsr
martin_p wrote: ↑Mon May 05, 2025 8:04 pm
The Championship was reassuringly consistent. 50 points good enough to stay up, 91 (just less than the standard 2 points per game) would have been good enough for automatic promotion.
Good enough for us, but not good enough for Sheffield United.
Same in the PL - West Ham would be safe with 30 points, but Leicester wouldn't.
Re: What's happened to you need 40 points to survive ??
Posted: Mon May 05, 2025 9:23 pm
by gawthorpe_view
If we can finish above Leeds and the play-off winners, we only need one of the 17 others to have a bad season for us to have a good chance of survival.
Re: What's happened to you need 40 points to survive ??
Posted: Mon May 05, 2025 9:34 pm
by Spijed
martin_p wrote: ↑Mon May 05, 2025 8:04 pm
The Championship was reassuringly consistent. 50 points good enough to stay up, 91 (just less than the standard 2 points per game) would have been good enough for automatic promotion.
I always thought two points per game would be good enough to get promoted, but not really any longer.
Had Sheff United not been deducted those two points they would have been on 92 and even that wouldn't have been enough to go up automatically.
I think we'll start to see more teams get 100 points or more in a season, and it may now be the case that you need 94-95 points to get into the top two.
Re: What's happened to you need 40 points to survive ??
Posted: Mon May 05, 2025 9:53 pm
by fidelcastro
As brilliant as this season has been, surviving in the PL next season would be a far bigger achievement!
Re: What's happened to you need 40 points to survive ??
Posted: Mon May 05, 2025 9:57 pm
by scamander
Wasn't 40 points an outlier - when West Ham got relegated with 40 points?
In recent years 35/36 has been enough - the issue is more in recent seasons that the gap between 17th and 18th has been wider than a few points indicating that the relegated teams are not even close to being able to compete.
The inherent difference is salaries. Let's assume West Ham are in contention for relegation next season. Perhaps Leeds might be able to compete salary wise but they can attract players we couldn't get close to.
In the past I have seen the league sorted by salary and that usually mirrors the final league table in terms of relegated teams. But Sky and the pundits don't like the idea because the TV money is linked. Hence pundits blaming the promoted teams for not 'having a go' or 'having enough quality'.
Re: What's happened to you need 40 points to survive ??
Posted: Mon May 05, 2025 10:00 pm
by Clockwork Claret
That assumes those 3 teams (18-20) aren't being relegated when we go up.
So we only have to beat Ipswich's total next year?
Point is the clubs coming up aren't getting to 40.
ChrisG wrote: ↑Mon May 05, 2025 7:43 pm
It's somewhat irrelevant what 17th finished on, you need to look at 18th and get one more point than that
Re: What's happened to you need 40 points to survive ??
Posted: Mon May 05, 2025 10:04 pm
by ClaretPete001
Who knows the wheels might fall off a Brentford or Bournemouth or even more amusingly Everton in their new stadium.
Let's be honest Championship teams and fans need to know more about Science and who better to teach them than the School of Science.
Re: What's happened to you need 40 points to survive ??
Posted: Mon May 05, 2025 10:08 pm
by Foshiznik
ClaretPete001 wrote: ↑Mon May 05, 2025 10:04 pm
Who knows the wheels might fall off a Brentford or Bournemouth or even more amusingly Everton in their new stadium.
Let's be honest Championship teams and fans need to know more about Science and who better to teach them than the School of Science.
It happened to us under Dyche so it can’t be completely written off with teams like Brentford, Palace, etc.
Re: What's happened to you need 40 points to survive ??
Posted: Mon May 05, 2025 10:20 pm
by Clockwork Claret
They may. But the established Premier league teams seem to get to or close on 40 points. What's changed is the quality coming up.
ClaretPete001 wrote: ↑Mon May 05, 2025 10:04 pm
Who knows the wheels might fall off a Brentford or Bournemouth or even more amusingly Everton in their new stadium.
Let's be honest Championship teams and fans need to know more about Science and who better to teach them than the School of Science.
Re: What's happened to you need 40 points to survive ??
Posted: Mon May 05, 2025 10:55 pm
by JR1882
2 things have happened.
2 years of promoted teams being really really poor, trying to play football against better players and getting battered. Someone is going to have to try something different to break the cycle.
Secondly a Weakened top 6 - United, Spurs especially, a weaker Chelsea and in the first half of the season City, have all had poor seasons gifting points to lower mid table sides who in season gone by have lost these games, and been closer to the bottom 3. A strong “big 6” may not be great for the game but it’s helpful when you need the teams above you to loose more than we do!
Re: What's happened to you need 40 points to survive ??
Posted: Mon May 05, 2025 11:02 pm
by Robbie_painter
Imagine getting promoted and the best you can hope for is survival.What a bag of ****.
Re: What's happened to you need 40 points to survive ??
Posted: Mon May 05, 2025 11:04 pm
by Dy1geo
The task facing us next season is huge but this time I think given our defensive capabilities and workrate we have a better chance of staying up.
To me the big difference now from before is the 9 on the bench 5 subs rules that has allowed those mid-bottom teams to build deeper squads with better quality.
Re: What's happened to you need 40 points to survive ??
Posted: Mon May 05, 2025 11:08 pm
by Wile E Coyote
its pointless (no pun) to speculate, we either survive, or get relegated.
we all know the reality of promotion, its rarely good news.
criticism of the style of play, criticism of lack of backing, slagging off the system, manager, individual players.
shame, because the euphoria of seeing a squad producing what Burnley have achieved this season has been momentous.
Personally it doesn't matter , I can rejoice in the success under Scott Parker, and accept the inevitable if we cannot compete next season. Fans are at the mercy of whoever has the purse strings, you just have to remain loyal no matter what.
Re: What's happened to you need 40 points to survive ??
Posted: Mon May 05, 2025 11:23 pm
by Colburn_Claret
Trends change, eventually. I'm not saying it will be next year but it will happen.
The consistency of the prem doesn't last long. Those teams deemed to have overachieved this season will very likely be back to normal next season.
We'll need a lot of luck, but so does every team that gets promoted, you just have to keep believing.
Re: What's happened to you need 40 points to survive ??
Posted: Mon May 05, 2025 11:39 pm
by Darnhill Claret
We have to do better than 3 other teams/clubs/squads.
Recruitment is key, and it might mean not overdoing the number of recruits.
We need enough players with the quality, confidence and ability to make the ball stick, the ability to travel with the ball, and penalty area 'winners'.
Re: What's happened to you need 40 points to survive ??
Posted: Mon May 05, 2025 11:40 pm
by fidelcastro
Robbie_painter wrote: ↑Mon May 05, 2025 11:02 pm
Imagine getting promoted and the best you can hope for is survival.What a bag of ****.
What are you expecting?
Re: What's happened to you need 40 points to survive ??
Posted: Tue May 06, 2025 5:55 am
by Vegas Claret
If you are the Leeds owners with the deep pockets they have you are spending 3-400 million, comfortably getting to 50 points and taking the 15 point deduction and still stay up. There is no other way for a team to stay up now imho. In the PL Dyche era our competitors towards the bottom weren't spending 20-40 million on ONE player but now it's a regular thing. Impossible to compete with that.
Re: What's happened to you need 40 points to survive ??
Posted: Tue May 06, 2025 6:57 am
by Goalkeeper
Colburn_Claret wrote: ↑Mon May 05, 2025 11:23 pm
Trends change, eventually. I'm not saying it will be next year but it will happen.
The consistency of the prem doesn't last long. Those teams deemed to have overachieved this season will very likely be back to normal next season.
We'll need a lot of luck, but so does every team that gets promoted, you just have to keep believing.
I think you couldn't be more wrong. Those teams will be even stronger next season.
Re: What's happened to you need 40 points to survive ??
Posted: Tue May 06, 2025 7:00 am
by ChrisG
Clockwork Claret wrote: ↑Mon May 05, 2025 10:00 pm
That assumes those 3 teams (18-20) aren't being relegated when we go up.
So we only have to beat Ipswich's total next year?
Point is the clubs coming up aren't getting to 40.
No, the point is that to have stayed up this, and any other season, you only need one point more than 3rd bottom. You said West Ham had 37 points I think, when in reality one more than Ipswich would do it.
So if over the last couple of years 18th has only got 27 points, then 28 is enough for survival.
What would be more relevant would be to see when the last 18th placed team to get 40 points was
Re: What's happened to you need 40 points to survive ??
Posted: Tue May 06, 2025 7:18 am
by ChrisG
Either way it's depressing that all we have to look forward to is maybe scraping 30 points
Re: What's happened to you need 40 points to survive ??
Posted: Tue May 06, 2025 7:31 am
by distortiondave
17 teams only need 1 point more than the bottom three to stop up, but the teams in the bottom three need one point more than 17th to stop up, so the 40 point marker is still there, nominally, it's just the three worst teams haven't got near it for a couple of seasons.
Re: What's happened to you need 40 points to survive ??
Posted: Tue May 06, 2025 7:31 am
by Petersa
I tend to think that by the law of averages a promoted team will stay up next year whatever the expert prophets of doom may say. Whether that's Burnley I wouldn't like to say at this stage.
Re: What's happened to you need 40 points to survive ??
Posted: Tue May 06, 2025 8:27 am
by IanMcL
ChrisG wrote: ↑Mon May 05, 2025 7:43 pm
It's somewhat irrelevant what 17th finished on, you need to look at 18th and get one more point than that
Correct in as much as you either need one point more or better goal difference than 18th team, however, you then have to look on what the usual number of points that is, in the Prem. That is usually.mid to high thirties.
So in theory yes, in practise no.
Re: What's happened to you need 40 points to survive ??
Posted: Tue May 06, 2025 8:50 am
by getbennyon
It was an ill thought number plucked from air simply because it wasrounded number to the nearest ten.
The average points needed to remain in the Premier League is 36.
Re: What's happened to you need 40 points to survive ??
Posted: Tue May 06, 2025 9:14 am
by Quickenthetempo
ChrisG wrote: ↑Tue May 06, 2025 7:00 am
No, the point is that to have stayed up this, and any other season, you only need one point more than 3rd bottom. You said West Ham had 37 points I think, when in reality one more than Ipswich would do it.
So if over the last couple of years 18th has only got 27 points, then 28 is enough for survival.
What would be more relevant would be to see when the last 18th placed team to get 40 points was
But in this debate we would have to be considered one of the bottom 3, until we get more points than West Ham or 4th bottom.
Who would then fall in to the bottom 3.
Re: What's happened to you need 40 points to survive ??
Posted: Wed May 07, 2025 9:09 am
by Clockwork Claret
I dont see it that way.
3 teams coming up have gone down with c27 points and below.
To stay up they needed to get to 17th. That place has consistently got c40 points.
As we are one of the 3 thats our target. 28 points won't cut it.
It might for one of the incumbents looking down at the 3 that come up. Hopefully we make a better fist of it. UTC.
ChrisG wrote: ↑Tue May 06, 2025 7:00 am
No, the point is that to have stayed up this, and any other season, you only need one point more than 3rd bottom. You said West Ham had 37 points I think, when in reality one more than Ipswich would do it.
So if over the last couple of years 18th has only got 27 points, then 28 is enough for survival.
What would be more relevant would be to see when the last 18th placed team to get 40 points was
Re: What's happened to you need 40 points to survive ??
Posted: Wed May 07, 2025 10:42 am
by turfytopper
5 subs as had the biggest impact....
Klopp pleaded for it and of course he got his own way.
In Boxing it would be the equivalent of facing 8 rounds against Oleksander Usyk giving it a right go, only for Uskyk to be replaced by the Daniel Dubois. The Championship is also showing the same signs.
Re: What's happened to you need 40 points to survive ??
Posted: Wed May 07, 2025 10:45 am
by kentonclaret
Robbie_painter wrote: ↑Mon May 05, 2025 11:02 pm
Imagine getting promoted and the best you can hope for is survival.What a bag of ****.
Sadly, it is only when a club gets promoted from the Championship to the PL that all hope of further progression is dampened if not extinguished. If you come up from the National League fans have realistic hopes of doing well in League Two (Chesterfield). Likewise promotion from League Two to League One brings hope of going still further (Wrexham, Stockport). And you can be certain that Birmingham and Wrexham will not be just aiming to “survive” in the Championship next season.
Re: What's happened to you need 40 points to survive ??
Posted: Wed May 07, 2025 2:00 pm
by Woodleyclaret
Leeds have hugh debts from previous transfers still to be settled or are they going to do the dodgy and be allowed a reprieve Leicester style and go unpunished. Let's us no forget they are the most popular team in Yorkshire. Some say back where they belong .I personally say unfortunately. UTC
Re: What's happened to you need 40 points to survive ??
Posted: Thu May 08, 2025 8:48 am
by claretinkorea
There are two completely different ways of looking at this neither of which is completely right or wrong, but it all about perspective and all depends on whether you are looking at it from above or below the dotted line. From West Ham's perspective they only need 1 point more than Ipswich to stay up, so (at present 23 would do it). But from Ipswich's perspective they would need to have reached 38 to stay up this season (assuming WH lose their last 3). So if we were in Ipswich's position then just beating their tally by one point wouldn't be enough to get out of the bottom 3 in the present table.
Exactly the same with the PL title, would you in theory need 83 points or would 68 points win the title (on current tally) based on the two different approaches? Depends whether you are replacing Liverpool or Arsenal in the table...
Re: What's happened to you need 40 points to survive ??
Posted: Thu May 08, 2025 9:52 am
by Clockwork Claret
claretinkorea wrote: ↑Thu May 08, 2025 8:48 am
There are two completely different ways of looking at this neither of which is completely right or wrong, but it all about perspective and all depends on whether you are looking at it from above or below the dotted line. From West Ham's perspective they only need 1 point more than Ipswich to stay up, so (at present 23 would do it). But from Ipswich's perspective they would need to have reached 38 to stay up this season (assuming WH lose their last 3). So if we were in Ipswich's position then just beating their tally by one point wouldn't be enough to get out of the bottom 3 in the present table.
Exactly the same with the PL title, would you in theory need 83 points or would 68 points win the title (on current tally) based on the two different approaches? Depends whether you are replacing Liverpool or Arsenal in the table...
Ye. And given we're not incumbent but replacing one of the 3, we need 40 points.
Re: What's happened to you need 40 points to survive ??
Posted: Thu May 08, 2025 10:01 am
by Spijed
The 40 points total, regardless of whether the league has got stronger, has always been a red herring.
I think since the formation of the 38 game season in the Prem it's only been required twice to survive, and every other season far less. Until the last few years you were pretty much guaranteed to survive with 36 points, and quite easily as well.