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The BBC say "every promoted side over the past 10 seasons with 11 points or more after 10 games has survived"
Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2025 4:40 pm
by ClaretOfMancunia
Can we get 8 points from our next 8 games?
16/08/25: Tottenham (A) - 0pts
23/08/25: Sunderland (H) - 3pts
30/08/25: Man United (A)
14/09/25: Liverpool (H)
20/09/25: Nottm Forest (H)
27/09/25: Man City (A)
05/10/25: Aston Villa (A)
18/10/25: Leeds (H)
26/10/25: Wolves (A)
01/11/25: Arsenal (H)
Re: The BBC say "every promoted side over the past 10 seasons with 11 points or more after 10 games has survived"
Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2025 4:48 pm
by CoolClaret
I think we'd hope to get ~ 4 results from that... I'd take 1 win and three draws right now!
Re: The BBC say "every promoted side over the past 10 seasons with 11 points or more after 10 games has survived"
Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2025 4:49 pm
by ollieclarets8
Minimum of 6. Doesn't really help does it
Re: The BBC say "every promoted side over the past 10 seasons with 11 points or more after 10 games has survived"
Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2025 4:50 pm
by Falcon
If we do then I'd imagine we'd have to win at least 2 out of Forest, Leeds and Wolves. It'll take some doing given the high quality of the rest of the opponents.
Re: The BBC say "every promoted side over the past 10 seasons with 11 points or more after 10 games has survived"
Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2025 4:54 pm
by ClaretOfMancunia
Falcon wrote: ↑Wed Aug 27, 2025 4:50 pm
If we do then I'd imagine we'd have to win at least 2 out of Forest, Leeds and Wolves. It'll take some doing given the high quality of the rest of the opponents.
Agree with that. Win two of those, draw one and a draw somewhere else (perhaps Manure this weekend..) - tall ask.
Re: The BBC say "every promoted side over the past 10 seasons with 11 points or more after 10 games has survived"
Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2025 4:54 pm
by ollieclarets8
Football being football, we'll beat Man U and lose to Wolves.
Re: The BBC say "every promoted side over the past 10 seasons with 11 points or more after 10 games has survived"
Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2025 4:56 pm
by Colburn_Claret
The BBC doesn't say that all those clubs who failed to attain 11 points were relegated. So it's really irrelevant.
Re: The BBC say "every promoted side over the past 10 seasons with 11 points or more after 10 games has survived"
Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2025 5:09 pm
by ClaretOfMancunia
Colburn_Claret wrote: ↑Wed Aug 27, 2025 4:56 pm
The BBC doesn't say that all those clubs who failed to attain 11 points were relegated. So it's really irrelevant.
You're right, but it's a good early indicator regardless.
How many promoted teams of the past 10 seasons who didn't hit 11 points by GW10 went on to stay up?
Re: The BBC say "every promoted side over the past 10 seasons with 11 points or more after 10 games has survived"
Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2025 5:31 pm
by Ampth7
ClaretOfMancunia wrote: ↑Wed Aug 27, 2025 4:40 pm
Can we get 8 points from our next 8 games?
16/08/25: Tottenham (A) - 0pts
23/08/25: Sunderland (H) - 3pts
30/08/25: Man United (A)
14/09/25: Liverpool (H)
20/09/25: Nottm Forest (H)
27/09/25: Man City (A)
05/10/25: Aston Villa (A)
18/10/25: Leeds (H)
26/10/25: Wolves (A)
01/11/25: Arsenal (H)
Crikey, when you see those opponents one after the other, it reminds you why it’s so bloody difficult to win games at this level!
Re: The BBC say "every promoted side over the past 10 seasons with 11 points or more after 10 games has survived"
Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2025 5:41 pm
by ClaretOfMancunia
ClaretOfMancunia wrote: ↑Wed Aug 27, 2025 5:09 pm
You're right, but it's a good early indicator regardless.
How many promoted teams of the past 10 seasons who didn't hit 11 points by GW10 went on to stay up?
I got ChatGPT to crunch the numbers on this as I was interested. Can't speak to the accuracy as I'm no statistician.
Past ten seasons, points after GW10:
>10 points (12 teams)
Stayed up: 12 → 12/12 = 100% survival
Relegated: 0
≤10 points (18 teams)
Stayed up: 2 → Bournemouth 2015–16, Forest 2022–23 → 2/18 = 11.1% survival
Relegated: 16
>10 points (11+) after Gameweek 10
Code: Select all
Team Points Season Outcome
Watford 13 2015–16 Stayed up
Burnley 11 2016–17 Stayed up
Newcastle 14 2017–18 Stayed up
Brighton 12 2017–18 Stayed up
Huddersfield 12 2017–18 Stayed up
Wolves 15 2018–19 Stayed up
Sheff Utd 13 2019–20 Stayed up
Aston Villa 11 2019–20 Stayed up
Leeds 14 2020–21 Stayed up
Brentford 12 2021–22 Stayed up
Fulham 14 2022–23 Stayed up
Bournemouth 12 2022–23 Stayed up
Count = 12 teams
≤10 points (≤10) after Gameweek 10
Code: Select all
Team Points Season Outcome
Bournemouth 8 2015–16 Stayed up
Norwich 9 2015–16 Relegated
Middlesbrough 10 2016–17 Relegated
Hull 7 2016–17 Relegated
Cardiff 5 2018–19 Relegated
Fulham 5 2018–19 Relegated
Norwich 7 2019–20 Relegated
West Brom 6 2020–21 Relegated
Fulham 7 2020–21 Relegated
Norwich 2 2021–22 Relegated
Watford 10 2021–22 Relegated
Forest 5 2022–23 Stayed up
Luton 5 2023–24 Relegated
Burnley 4 2023–24 Relegated
Sheff Utd 1 2023–24 Relegated
Ipswich 5 2024–25 Relegated
Southampton 4 2024–25 Relegated
Leicester 10 2024–25 Relegated
Count = 18 teams
Re: The BBC say "every promoted side over the past 10 seasons with 11 points or more after 10 games has survived"
Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2025 5:41 pm
by bfcmik
2 years ago the BBC said that every promoted club who had achieved a hundred points or more had never been relegated!
Re: The BBC say "every promoted side over the past 10 seasons with 11 points or more after 10 games has survived"
Posted: Wed Aug 27, 2025 5:42 pm
by ClaretOfMancunia
Ampth7 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 27, 2025 5:31 pm
Crikey, when you see those opponents one after the other, it reminds you why it’s so bloody difficult to win games at this level!
Yes, and yet somehow, I still have belief we'll do it!
Re: The BBC say "every promoted side over the past 10 seasons with 11 points or more after 10 games has survived"
Posted: Thu Aug 28, 2025 6:46 am
by Culmclaret
In 2009/10 we had 12 points from our first 10 and 15 from our first 11…..