Brexit: Uniting the Country Since 31/01/2020

[CombatClaret]

If the EU don't want a free trade deal, then there won't be a free trade deal. It's obvious to all parties, remainers as well as Brexiters, that free trade all round is a good option for both sides; but the EU wants to confuse it with the Elgin Marbles, Gibraltar, and the European Court of Justice.

This sums up my reply more succinctly

"You can make as many arguments as you like about the “fairness” of this, but ultimately, that’s international trade negotiations for you. You decide whether the price that the bigger bloc is offering is worth paying or not. What matters in trade talks is the size of your market – which is why the US, China and the EU get to dictate the terms when they negotiate with smaller countries"

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/s ... ng-failure

[Colburn_Claret]

This sums up my reply more succinctly

"You can make as many arguments as you like about the “fairness” of this, but ultimately, that’s international trade negotiations for you. You decide whether the price that the bigger bloc is offering is worth paying or not. What matters in trade talks is the size of your market – which is why the US, China and the EU get to dictate the terms when they negotiate with smaller countries"

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/s ... ng-failure

The Newstatesman, that'll be right then won't it

[Devils_Advocate]

Try this then Colburn from Mujtaba Rahman

After spending the week in Bxl, I can report that the mood among senior EU officials regarding Monday's start of UK trade talks is extremely gloomy. Expectations have adjusted that EU might end up trading with UK like US or China, on WTO terms. A thread on how I see things 1/
I agree with most in Bxl that odds of no deal are rising & space for a deal is shrinking - & rapidly. This is largely driven by @10DowningStreet super-hardline on divergence, & the need to square this with EU's expectations on the level playing field 2/
The EUs now-final mandate has 3 major asks of UK on LPF: 1) dynamic alignment on state aid; 2) a commitment to not go below env, social, labour & fiscal standards that will be in place at the end of the transition; & 3) an aim to maintain regulatory coherence with EU in future 3/
Senior EU officials tell me that the last bit (3) is where member states turned the screws the most. The EU's original mandate only spoke of the UK not rowing back on env, social, labour & fiscal standards from where they sit when Govt formally exits transition at end of year 4/
The revised text also throws in a forward looking element. Not the full bell & whistles of dynamic alignment - which means EU legislates & UK adopts & transposes, like Norway - but something softer. "A system for two adults", in the words of one official involved in the talks 5/
However, the bigger conclusion for me is not where the EU mandate landed - a slight toughening from the @EU_Commission original proposal - but where it *could* have landed. & what this tells us about the EU's internal political dynamic in phase 2 6/

The French wanted dynamic alignment on all of it. They lost the argument, but suspect they knew they would. What they've won, however, is arguably far more important. The recognition that they'll be the toughest, most important critic to bring on board in this round of talks 7/
Frankly, in light of tough UK messaging, especially ambiguity @10DowningStreet has fostered around implementation of the Irish protocol, I'm surprised Paris didn't win *more* support from EU capitals over mandate 8/
Indeed, senior EU officials tell me they purposely chose to leave some wiggle room for @MichelBarnier to manoeuvre & do a deal. But EU still doesn't feel they actually know what Govt's bottom line *really* is. There are, remarkably, *no* back channels with @DavidGHFrost 9/
So no ground has been prepared in private; all officials in Bxl can go off are public statements. @michaelgove statement in Commons today which will draw attention to mandate Govt won in December’s election as basis for UK's stance - not last year's deal - is a case in point 10/
HOWEVER, the *biggest* problem - greater than the slightly tougher EU mandate, @EmmanuelMacron position or poor information flows between key UK & EU officials - is time, which in some ways will undermine the EU's leverage & increases risks of serious miscalculation. Why? 11/
Because senior EU officials concede that it will be *impossible* to agree internally among the 27 which UK sectors/products should be hit with retaliatory EU tariffs if UK doesn't comply with EU's LPF demands. There's simply no time to have a line-by-line tariff negotiation 12/
"It would take six years, not six months" one central figure tells me. It would undermine EU unity. There's been no discussion on this & likely won't be. All senior officials I spoke to agreed with this point: you can't end up with some LPF & some tariffs. It's very binary 13/
SO EITHER there's agreement on EU's broad terms, where there's room to fudge in some areas (eg regulatory coherence isn't dynamic alignment) but not in others (eg state aid) and the UK will be granted zero/zero access OR there won't be a deal. The messy middle doesn't exist 14/
Has @10DowningStreet calculated that threat of EU tariffs isn't credible? Perhaps Govt also thinks the econ impact of Corona virus will make EU27 more reluctant about no deal? Italy looks likely to tip into recession. Does this EU27 tariff constraint reinforce Govt's hard line?
Of course, EU officials push back against this view, arguing that the qualitative step change in *nature* of UK-EU relationship will happen at end of this year when Govt exits transition; the question of tariffs/quotas is simply one of degree. The major damage is already done 16/
But surely the fact the difference between a zero/zero deal & WTO terms is only one of *degree* will only increase risk of no deal - either by accident (Govt/EU miscalculate) or design (Govt can't pay EU's LPF price; or EU decides it can't risk integrity of its market) 17/
It's clear UK has done itself some serious reputational damage in key EU capitals given its approach. The EU side thinks Govt has yet to fully realise it won't have capacity to set standards. If it chooses not to align with EU, that's ideological. But UK will have to align... 18/
... with someone, eg US, who will be much tougher. "Unless the UK wants to be like North Korea, but even they align to China!" says one senior EU official. "Our offer is genuine, based on shared values." But people I spoke with aren't holding their breath the UK will take it ENDS

[aggi]

I thought Brexit was done... What happened to the oven ready deal.

Flooding hitting communities hard and a global virus outbreak, now is just the time for small 'hands off', I'm alright Jack government.

We have an oven-ready deal. He just neglected to mention that someone else owns the oven.

[dsr]

This sums up my reply more succinctly

"You can make as many arguments as you like about the “fairness” of this, but ultimately, that’s international trade negotiations for you. You decide whether the price that the bigger bloc is offering is worth paying or not. What matters in trade talks is the size of your market – which is why the US, China and the EU get to dictate the terms when they negotiate with smaller countries"

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/s ... ng-failure

If the size of the market is what matters, then I can only presume that Canada is a much bigger market than the UK - how else would they get a trade deal without having to agree to change their laws at the whim of the EU?

This is the intractable problem. The UK wants a deal that is fair to both sides. The EU wants to use its perceived financial muscle, being 4 times bigger than the UK, to get a deal which is weighted in their favour.

One telling aspect of their position is the oft-repeated claim that to have free trade would give the UK the opportunity to have easy access to the EU market while being able to set our own laws. They never mention that the EU would have equal opportunity to have easy access to the UK market while being able to set their own laws. It's fair to both sides.

[Colburn_Claret]

Try this then Colburn from Mujtaba Rahman

After spending the week in Bxl, I can report that the mood among senior EU officials regarding Monday's start of UK trade talks is extremely gloomy. Expectations have adjusted that EU might end up trading with UK like US or China, on WTO terms. A thread on how I see things 1/
I agree with most in Bxl that odds of no deal are rising & space for a deal is shrinking - & rapidly. This is largely driven by @10DowningStreet super-hardline on divergence, & the need to square this with EU's expectations on the level playing field 2/
The EUs now-final mandate has 3 major asks of UK on LPF: 1) dynamic alignment on state aid; 2) a commitment to not go below env, social, labour & fiscal standards that will be in place at the end of the transition; & 3) an aim to maintain regulatory coherence with EU in future 3/
Senior EU officials tell me that the last bit (3) is where member states turned the screws the most. The EU's original mandate only spoke of the UK not rowing back on env, social, labour & fiscal standards from where they sit when Govt formally exits transition at end of year 4/
The revised text also throws in a forward looking element. Not the full bell & whistles of dynamic alignment - which means EU legislates & UK adopts & transposes, like Norway - but something softer. "A system for two adults", in the words of one official involved in the talks 5/
However, the bigger conclusion for me is not where the EU mandate landed - a slight toughening from the @EU_Commission original proposal - but where it *could* have landed. & what this tells us about the EU's internal political dynamic in phase 2 6/

The French wanted dynamic alignment on all of it. They lost the argument, but suspect they knew they would. What they've won, however, is arguably far more important. The recognition that they'll be the toughest, most important critic to bring on board in this round of talks 7/
Frankly, in light of tough UK messaging, especially ambiguity @10DowningStreet has fostered around implementation of the Irish protocol, I'm surprised Paris didn't win *more* support from EU capitals over mandate 8/
Indeed, senior EU officials tell me they purposely chose to leave some wiggle room for @MichelBarnier to manoeuvre & do a deal. But EU still doesn't feel they actually know what Govt's bottom line *really* is. There are, remarkably, *no* back channels with @DavidGHFrost 9/
So no ground has been prepared in private; all officials in Bxl can go off are public statements. @michaelgove statement in Commons today which will draw attention to mandate Govt won in December’s election as basis for UK's stance - not last year's deal - is a case in point 10/
HOWEVER, the *biggest* problem - greater than the slightly tougher EU mandate, @EmmanuelMacron position or poor information flows between key UK & EU officials - is time, which in some ways will undermine the EU's leverage & increases risks of serious miscalculation. Why? 11/
Because senior EU officials concede that it will be *impossible* to agree internally among the 27 which UK sectors/products should be hit with retaliatory EU tariffs if UK doesn't comply with EU's LPF demands. There's simply no time to have a line-by-line tariff negotiation 12/
"It would take six years, not six months" one central figure tells me. It would undermine EU unity. There's been no discussion on this & likely won't be. All senior officials I spoke to agreed with this point: you can't end up with some LPF & some tariffs. It's very binary 13/
SO EITHER there's agreement on EU's broad terms, where there's room to fudge in some areas (eg regulatory coherence isn't dynamic alignment) but not in others (eg state aid) and the UK will be granted zero/zero access OR there won't be a deal. The messy middle doesn't exist 14/
Has @10DowningStreet calculated that threat of EU tariffs isn't credible? Perhaps Govt also thinks the econ impact of Corona virus will make EU27 more reluctant about no deal? Italy looks likely to tip into recession. Does this EU27 tariff constraint reinforce Govt's hard line?
Of course, EU officials push back against this view, arguing that the qualitative step change in *nature* of UK-EU relationship will happen at end of this year when Govt exits transition; the question of tariffs/quotas is simply one of degree. The major damage is already done 16/
But surely the fact the difference between a zero/zero deal & WTO terms is only one of *degree* will only increase risk of no deal - either by accident (Govt/EU miscalculate) or design (Govt can't pay EU's LPF price; or EU decides it can't risk integrity of its market) 17/
It's clear UK has done itself some serious reputational damage in key EU capitals given its approach. The EU side thinks Govt has yet to fully realise it won't have capacity to set standards. If it chooses not to align with EU, that's ideological. But UK will have to align... 18/
... with someone, eg US, who will be much tougher. "Unless the UK wants to be like North Korea, but even they align to China!" says one senior EU official. "Our offer is genuine, based on shared values." But people I spoke with aren't holding their breath the UK will take it ENDS

There is nothing new in that assessment, other than the EU saying it will take 6 years to reach an agreement with the 27, not 6 months. Therein lies their problem, and another reason why we were right to quit. The Federalists have this idealism of the EU that doesn't exist in reality. I doubt they will ever agree a new monetary package for the next 7 years, because the gap between the 2 sides is massive.
There is no point in crawling along until December to decide that they can't, or aren't willing to do a deal. Far better to come out with it a.s.a.p., so the June deadline that Boris quoted makes sense, for them as well as us. If it is going to be WTO, then let's at least give ourselves plenty of time to get ready for it.
I have no prediction of how it will end, I'm not too bothered. I wanted independence, and I've got it. I still find all the prophets of doom hilarious. I doubt we will emerge in a land of milk and honey, but I still think it will be better than where we were.

[Devils_Advocate]

There is nothing new in that assessment, other than the EU saying it will take 6 years to reach an agreement with the 27, not 6 months. Therein lies their problem, and another reason why we were right to quit. The Federalists have this idealism of the EU that doesn't exist in reality. I doubt they will ever agree a new monetary package for the next 7 years, because the gap between the 2 sides is massive.
There is no point in crawling along until December to decide that they can't, or aren't willing to do a deal. Far better to come out with it a.s.a.p., so the June deadline that Boris quoted makes sense, for them as well as us. If it is going to be WTO, then let's at least give ourselves plenty of time to get ready for it.
I have no prediction of how it will end, I'm not too bothered. I wanted independence, and I've got it. I still find all the prophets of doom hilarious. I doubt we will emerge in a land of milk and honey, but I still think it will be better than where we were.

Whether we were right to quit will be correctly judged in the years to come when we see the Brexit our Govt delivers and the impacts it has on our country.

The Brexiteers have got what they wanted and got complete control of our country so the time for blaming the EU, remainers or anyone else has been and gone.

You won a resounding victory and your team is now in charge to make whatever decisions it wishes so if you can't get a deal or f*ck up anything else then be the warrior/man you've been spouting off about on this forum and take some responsibility. (You'll sure as hell be lapping up the credit for anything good that happens)

[Erasmus]

Colburn, in what way will it be better? Will my family and community get some benefit? If so, what benefit will that be?

[keith1879]

If the size of the market is what matters, then I can only presume that Canada is a much bigger market than the UK - how else would they get a trade deal without having to agree to change their laws at the whim of the EU?

This is the intractable problem. The UK wants a deal that is fair to both sides. The EU wants to use its perceived financial muscle, being 4 times bigger than the UK, to get a deal which is weighted in their favour.

One telling aspect of their position is the oft-repeated claim that to have free trade would give the UK the opportunity to have easy access to the EU market while being able to set our own laws. They never mention that the EU would have equal opportunity to have easy access to the UK market while being able to set their own laws. It's fair to both sides.

No .... The UK wants a deal that is best for the UK. This is surely true whether you believe in Brexit or not. The EU (amazingly) wants one that is best for the EU. Both sides cannot win.

[dsr]

No .... The UK wants a deal that is best for the UK. This is surely true whether you believe in Brexit or not. The EU (amazingly) wants one that is best for the EU. Both sides cannot win.

Of course both sides can win. That's what trade is all about. Every time you buy something, you are making a deal that suits you and suits the seller too. If both sides can't win with free trade, then why does the EU have it for its own members?

[KateR]

Whether we were right to quit will be correctly judged in the years to come when we see the Brexit our Govt delivers and the impacts it has on our country.
Very true, so why not wait and keep jumping to conclusions.

The Brexiteers have got what they wanted and got complete control of our country so the time for blaming the EU, remainers or anyone else has been and gone.
Brexiteers have not got what they want, yes if you're talking about the first phase, which should have been the easiest phase the agree, the second phase was always going to be the longest and toughest, unfortunately due to circumstance we all know phase one took far to long and now as with 99% of schedules the most important phase is now shorter than ideal, however I believe it's important to push to complete and I personally anticipate an extension beyond the end of the year.

You won a resounding victory and your team is now in charge to make whatever decisions it wishes so if you can't get a deal or f*ck up anything else then be the warrior/man you've been spouting off about on this forum and take some responsibility. (You'll sure as hell be lapping up the credit for anything good that happens)
Why continue to be argumentative and start with "your team", surely now is the time for it to be us only, I'm not say don't comment on what you perceive as wrong or would be bad, but why start making it personal and confrontational. I'm not sure why you would ask anyone not involved in these negotiations take the responsibility.

You're continued "apparent" lack of knowledge around how negotiations work, between two factions, is worrying when coupled against your aggression to others. Your post is in the main contradictory in that the first para/sentence is I believe a fact, yet your last para flies in the face of this telling someone to "man up & take responsibility".

[Devils_Advocate]

You're continued "apparent" lack of knowledge around how negotiations work, between two factions, is worrying when coupled against your aggression to others. Your post is in the main contradictory in that the first para/sentence is I believe a fact, yet your last para flies in the face of this telling someone to "man up & take responsibility".

Sorry but you've made your point by rewriting the whole Brexit/Leave narrative so I'll leave it there. Plus there's no point conversing with you cos as soon as people start going into details and facts you revert to calling people bully's, brainwashed and clique's.

Have a good day Kate

[Erasmus]

Kate, perhaps you can tell me how things will be better now we have left. What will the main benefits be for the people around me?

[Jakubclaret]

Whether we were right to quit will be correctly judged in the years to come when we see the Brexit our Govt delivers and the impacts it has on our country.

The Brexiteers have got what they wanted and got complete control of our country so the time for blaming the EU, remainers or anyone else has been and gone.

You won a resounding victory and your team is now in charge to make whatever decisions it wishes so if you can't get a deal or f*ck up anything else then be the warrior/man you've been spouting off about on this forum and take some responsibility. (You'll sure as hell be lapping up the credit for anything good that happens)

We've been connected to the EU integrally for years, to say something has been & gone is far too premature without apportioning blame on the EU, remainers or anybody else, to gain complete control means reversing all the damage in place, you are not gutting a house, you are actually demolishing it & rebuilding it from scratch to fully become seperate.

[Colburn_Claret]

Colburn, in what way will it be better? Will my family and community get some benefit? If so, what benefit will that be?

The benefits are yet to be seen, all there are, are the possibilities that being unencumbered with EU regulations, and the freedom to make our own trade deals with the rest of the world can bring. A freedom to invest in communities and factories without having to ask Brussels if it contravenes with some EU trade rule, or undermines another factory on the far side of Europe. A freedom to offer outside countries and businesses the opportunity to invest in this country, without having to have Brussels rubber stamp it. Boris is talking about creating a couple of Free Ports, you only have to look at Asia to see the benefits this can bring to the community and the country at large. THIS is what the EU and particularly Germany fear, despite all their bluster they are frightened that Brexit will be a success.

I could twist it on its head and say what have we lost by leaving, because at the moment we haven't lost anything. Time will tell.

[aggi]

Of course both sides can win. That's what trade is all about. Every time you buy something, you are making a deal that suits you and suits the seller too. If both sides can't win with free trade, then why does the EU have it for its own members?

Well the EU has free trade plus additional provisions for, theoretically, a level playing field. We want free trade without that level playing field which is significantly different.

Examples like Apple in Ireland have shown how such a thing can be exploited so it is obvious why it is a sticking point.

[Erasmus]

Thanks Colburn. So from what you have said, would I be correct in taking it that you believe leaving the EU will lead to economic improvements for the UK, which will in turn bring benefits to the people of the country because of increased revenues to the government? I can see quite clearly how that would be beneficial, but are you saying that leaving will lead to an economic upturn in Britain?

[KateR]

Kate, perhaps you can tell me how things will be better now we have left. What will the main benefits be for the people around me?

Erasmus,
it's a good question that has multiple answer, but first of all back to my agreement with DA in that no one really knows until we are 5 or 10 years down the line, additionally during this future period this Gov or any Gov. can not legislate for things like the financial crash of 2008 or virus spread from China which may cause many issues, financially as well as cultural and business plus of course the deaths of however many.

Having said that I will also repeat to set the scene what I have been saying regularly on here, the effects will be different for various working communities, you can't expect Fishing/Farming/Finance/Rail/Retail, etc. all to have the same benefit or downfall. I am sure there will be a downturn for some but I believe the opportunities and the benefits will result in an upturn in the overall finances of the country and there will be benefits that filter down to everyone.

I obviously have no idea what you do, what your family does or what your friends do or where you live in regard to the people around you, however there are numerous opportunities for people to step into gaps in the market that this leaving will create, the people who do this will be brave, take risks, some will fail and some will soar. I have no idea whether you, your family & friends are of this ilk or you play it safe and stay working for other people for a wage. Basically "things" will change, what you make of this change is up to you but if we stayed then you would have been relatively safe but no guarantees, thing about keep doing what you always do, it results in the same outcome the vast majority of time.

[KateR]

Sorry but you've made your point by rewriting the whole Brexit/Leave narrative so I'll leave it there. Plus there's no point conversing with you cos as soon as people start going into details and facts you revert to calling people bully's, brainwashed and clique's.

Have a good day Kate

I'm not surprised you don't want to debate, it's typical of what bully's do when confronted, I'd really like to see some facts from you that says the UK will be worse off, you've been saying it for 3 years and proved to be false news, yet you want people to own things, and not only that own things they have no control of. Yet as I said I agreed with your first statement, there has been a lot of good data recently regarding the UK, I never see you posting one thing about those and I find it frustrating when people have one view and use everything they can find to try and drive home that point of view.

So yes I agree there is little point in conversing with you because you bring nothing to the debate.

I also hope you have a good day and that's it's a good weekend for both of us, especially Saturday afternoon.

[Colburn_Claret]

Thanks Colburn. So from what you have said, would I be correct in taking it that you believe leaving the EU will lead to economic improvements for the UK, which will in turn bring benefits to the people of the country because of increased revenues to the government? I can see quite clearly how that would be beneficial, but are you saying that leaving will lead to an economic upturn in Britain?

I do believe it, but I don't think it will be an overnight thing, it will take time to lay the foundations and reap any reward. The first step on that path had to be getting out of the EU and its red tape. My overriding reason for voting leave was so that Westminster would have the right to make decisions to encourage growth and prosperity in this country, without having to ask when or if we could do it. It's the same reason why any deal that means we still have to be tied to Brussels 'rules' is a non starter. If we accepted that then there would have been no point in leaving, and if the 'price' of not acceding to their demands is we pay tariffs on our exports, then imo, it's a tariff worth paying. And don't forget that if we are paying tariffs to export, then so are they. In effect what we pay out with one hand we get back with the other. Businesses will adapt, as they always do, but to carry on a phoney cold war, who blinks first brinkmanship beyond June is pointless. It just wastes valuable time, and I'd rather have 6 months to iron out the details of WTO, than 6 weeks or 6 days.
Boris is talking the right talk, I'm not predicting the outcome because there are far too many variables for that. So long as Boris sticks to his word I'll be happy whatever the outcome. Deal or No Deal.

[Erasmus]

As far as I can see, the points about gaining independence from the EU so that we can set our own rules are of importance only if they lead to greater prosperity for the country, which would allow the government to spend more on public services and thereby arrest the dreadful conditions into which health and social care have sunk. Is independence from the EU an end in itself or is it a means by which the desired end can be achieved?

If it is regarded as an end in itself, I can't see that it is of any value except perhaps at an emotional level for one half of the population. If it is the means by which the living conditions of poorest and most deprived people can be improved then it was certainly the right thing to do. If on the other hand it leads to a decline in the strength of the economy, with all the consequences that would entail, then it has surely been a grave error.

Independence, sovereignty etc are in themselves just ideas. It is only when they lead to some tangible result that benefits those most in need that they gain some meaningful significance. That's my view at least. Would you agree with that?

[KateR]

As far as I can see, the points about gaining independence from the EU so that we can set our own rules are of importance only if they lead to greater prosperity for the country, which would allow the government to spend more on public services and thereby arrest the dreadful conditions into which health and social care have sunk. Is independence from the EU an end in itself or is it a means by which the desired end can be achieved?

If it is regarded as an end in itself, I can't see that it is of any value except perhaps at an emotional level for one half of the population. If it is the means by which the living conditions of poorest and most deprived people can be improved then it was certainly the right thing to do. If on the other hand it leads to a decline in the strength of the economy, with all the consequences that would entail, then it has surely been a grave error.

Independence, sovereignty etc are in themselves just ideas. It is only when they lead to some tangible result that benefits those most in need that they gain some meaningful significance. That's my view at least. Would you agree with that?

a post I like very much and yes I think, no, sorry, I can definitely agree with the post and your view, very well put in my opinion, thank you

[Colburn_Claret]

As far as I can see, the points about gaining independence from the EU so that we can set our own rules are of importance only if they lead to greater prosperity for the country, which would allow the government to spend more on public services and thereby arrest the dreadful conditions into which health and social care have sunk. Is independence from the EU an end in itself or is it a means by which the desired end can be achieved?

If it is regarded as an end in itself, I can't see that it is of any value except perhaps at an emotional level for one half of the population. If it is the means by which the living conditions of poorest and most deprived people can be improved then it was certainly the right thing to do. If on the other hand it leads to a decline in the strength of the economy, with all the consequences that would entail, then it has surely been a grave error.

Independence, sovereignty etc are in themselves just ideas. It is only when they lead to some tangible result that benefits those most in need that they gain some meaningful significance. That's my view at least. Would you agree with that?

I would definitely. I just have a lot more faith in this country than the remainers. The juries out and I'm prepared to wait for the verdict, rather than keep making wild predictions.

[AndrewJB]

I do believe it, but I don't think it will be an overnight thing, it will take time to lay the foundations and reap any reward. The first step on that path had to be getting out of the EU and its red tape. My overriding reason for voting leave was so that Westminster would have the right to make decisions to encourage growth and prosperity in this country, without having to ask when or if we could do it. It's the same reason why any deal that means we still have to be tied to Brussels 'rules' is a non starter. If we accepted that then there would have been no point in leaving, and if the 'price' of not acceding to their demands is we pay tariffs on our exports, then imo, it's a tariff worth paying. And don't forget that if we are paying tariffs to export, then so are they. In effect what we pay out with one hand we get back with the other. Businesses will adapt, as they always do, but to carry on a phoney cold war, who blinks first brinkmanship beyond June is pointless. It just wastes valuable time, and I'd rather have 6 months to iron out the details of WTO, than 6 weeks or 6 days.
Boris is talking the right talk, I'm not predicting the outcome because there are far too many variables for that. So long as Boris sticks to his word I'll be happy whatever the outcome. Deal or No Deal.

The rules and regulations that came out from Brussels - that we almost always voted in favour of - will now be replaced by rules and regulations out of Westminster. There won't be a bonfire of regulations, but at most a changing of them, and the cost to us will be greater because we will now have to foot the whole bill for making and executing them, rather than sharing that cost with other EU countries. I imagine you and others think that EU regulations hindered our businesses, but it's now going to be Westminster regulations that do that. Which EU regulations were you most against? I ask because the Westminster replacements are going to ask more of the same in any case. And where they don't - which is to say perhaps fewer workers' rights, or lower environmental standards - then the people of the UK will suffer in order to make business happy.

Independence: A lot of our public infrastructure is owned by companies controlled by EU governments. I've heard nothing about us taking back control of that.

As for leaving the EU on WTO terms, I've said before it will be us cutting off our nose to spite our face. We have always been an independent member of a club - agreeing to collective rules that we played a big part in formulating - but insisting we have free trade without ground rules is delusional, and WTO terms (if the EU accede to that) will hurt us more than it hurts them. There's simply no point, unless that's what you're actually looking to achieve.

Which brings us to Johnson, his big money backers, many of whom have placed their bets on a no deal exit, and his track record of saying things that make people happy without actually delivering. You say "if he sticks to his words".

You had a choice, and didn't vote for a party (there were several) wanting to take back control of areas of our economy that affect everyone's lives, and instead voted for a man without a track record of real success (in fact a track record of failure) who's exit deal was worse than his predecessor's (which he voted against), and is now lazily suggesting we'll just walk away from our biggest export market if they don't agree to his terms.

Had this been put before the British people in 2016, it would have lost. The fact you and others are championing it is a hats off to the media for selling it.

[RingoMcCartney]

The rules and regulations that came out from Brussels - that we almost always voted in favour of - will now be replaced by rules and regulations out of Westminster. There won't be a bonfire of regulations, but at most a changing of them, and the cost to us will be greater because we will now have to foot the whole bill for making and executing them, rather than sharing that cost with other EU countries. I imagine you and others think that EU regulations hindered our businesses, but it's now going to be Westminster regulations that do that. Which EU regulations were you most against? I ask because the Westminster replacements are going to ask more of the same in any case. And where they don't - which is to say perhaps fewer workers' rights, or lower environmental standards - then the people of the UK will suffer in order to make business happy.

Independence: A lot of our public infrastructure is owned by companies controlled by EU governments. I've heard nothing about us taking back control of that.

As for leaving the EU on WTO terms, I've said before it will be us cutting off our nose to spite our face. We have always been an independent member of a club - agreeing to collective rules that we played a big part in formulating - but insisting we have free trade without ground rules is delusional, and WTO terms (if the EU accede to that) will hurt us more than it hurts them. There's simply no point, unless that's what you're actually looking to achieve.

Which brings us to Johnson, his big money backers, many of whom have placed their bets on a no deal exit, and his track record of saying things that make people happy without actually delivering. You say "if he sticks to his words".

You had a choice, and didn't vote for a party (there were several) wanting to take back control of areas of our economy that affect everyone's lives, and instead voted for a man without a track record of real success (in fact a track record of failure) who's exit deal was worse than his predecessor's (which he voted against), and is now lazily suggesting we'll just walk away from our biggest export market if they don't agree to his terms.

Had this been put before the British people in 2016, it would have lost. The fact you and others are championing it is a hats off to the media for selling it.

Who knows what's best for the People of Burnley , Andrew?


The People of Burnley,

Or,

A metropolitan bubble dweller based 100s of miles away?

[Devils_Advocate]

Who knows what's best for the People of Burnley , Andrew?


The People of Burnley,

Or,

A metropolitan bubble dweller based 100s of miles away?

I would suggest that at a complex political and economically global level the people of Burnley really aren't the people who know whats best for Burnley.

If we had a media system that allowed experts and specialists to share their views and which challenged views without bias and held to account the words and promises of those in power and who we are supposed to trust then I think it would be fair to allow the folk of Burnley to make a considered decision about whats best for them.

Unfortunately the last 4 years have seen us move so far away from a political system where truth matters and where those in power are held accountable your words about the people of Burnley and the metropolitan bubble are even more worthless than they ever were in the first place

[RingoMcCartney]

An expression of democracy should count those who voted on either side, so it's actually more like thirty million. As a percentage of the voting public it's still well behind seventeen other expressions of democracy though.

The Leave vote was the largest single expression of democracy this nation has ever witnessed. You appear to claim it wasnt.

I asked previously, but, I'll ask again.


Which other option on a ballot paper, in either a uk general election or referendum, received more votes, than those received by the Leave vote in the 2016 EU referendum ?

[RingoMcCartney]

I would suggest that at a complex political and economically global level the people of Burnley really aren't the people who know whats best for Burnley.

If we had a media system that allowed experts and specialists to share their views and which challenged views without bias and held to account the words and promises of those in power and who we are supposed to trust then I think it would be fair to allow the folk of Burnley to make a considered decision about whats best for them.

Unfortunately the last 4 years have seen us move so far away from a political system where truth matters and where those in power are held accountable your words about the people of Burnley and the metropolitan bubble are even more worthless than they ever were in the first place

There we have it!

The People of Burnley dont know what's best for the People of Burnley!

They need the dwellers of the metropolitan London borough of Ivory Towers , to help them save themselves from themselves.

Then Labour wonder why they've just enjoyed their worst electoral drubbing for , literally, decades!

[Colburn_Claret]

The rules and regulations that came out from Brussels - that we almost always voted in favour of - will now be replaced by rules and regulations out of Westminster. There won't be a bonfire of regulations, but at most a changing of them, and the cost to us will be greater because we will now have to foot the whole bill for making and executing them, rather than sharing that cost with other EU countries. I imagine you and others think that EU regulations hindered our businesses, but it's now going to be Westminster regulations that do that. Which EU regulations were you most against? I ask because the Westminster replacements are going to ask more of the same in any case. And where they don't - which is to say perhaps fewer workers' rights, or lower environmental standards - then the people of the UK will suffer in order to make business happy.

Independence: A lot of our public infrastructure is owned by companies controlled by EU governments. I've heard nothing about us taking back control of that.

As for leaving the EU on WTO terms, I've said before it will be us cutting off our nose to spite our face. We have always been an independent member of a club - agreeing to collective rules that we played a big part in formulating - but insisting we have free trade without ground rules is delusional, and WTO terms (if the EU accede to that) will hurt us more than it hurts them. There's simply no point, unless that's what you're actually looking to achieve.

Which brings us to Johnson, his big money backers, many of whom have placed their bets on a no deal exit, and his track record of saying things that make people happy without actually delivering. You say "if he sticks to his words".

You had a choice, and didn't vote for a party (there were several) wanting to take back control of areas of our economy that affect everyone's lives, and instead voted for a man without a track record of real success (in fact a track record of failure) who's exit deal was worse than his predecessor's (which he voted against), and is now lazily suggesting we'll just walk away from our biggest export market if they don't agree to his terms.

Had this been put before the British people in 2016, it would have lost. The fact you and others are championing it is a hats off to the media for selling it.

We are championing it because so far he is doing, or attempting to do, what he promised.
Explaining why again is pointless, I don't agree with you, then, now or in the future. As has been lauded many times over the last few weeks, our policy and goals on the environment far exceed the par in the EU. Our standing on workers rights and benefits is as good, and in many cases better than the EU. If we are already ahead of the game it wouldn't be necessary to leave to cut those standards, we could have stayed in and cut them. We can have trade without ground rules, or at least trade without the EU telling us what we can and can't do, on fishing for example, or who we can and can't strike deals with, or who we can refuse entry to this country to. We can have trade and just pay the tariffs, as a worst case scenario, only if that's the worst case it isn't bad.
As for putting our trust in Boris, who else was there offering to deliver what the country wanted. Certainly not Corbyn.
Just like Brussels you are frightened to death of Brexit being a success. It could be the end of the EU, and it would be the end of your brand of Socialism.

[RingoMcCartney]

So you can’t find one good piece of economic news then? Yes we’ve left - we are still paying in, still following their rules, still haven’t singed any deals, still governed by the ECJ - what is it we have left?

Here's one piece of good news!


UK SMEs optimistic about 2020 growth following a strong performance last quarter

https://www.home.barclaycard/media-cent ... rowth.html

UK SMEs optimistic about 2020 growth following a strong performance last quarter

Barclaycard’s inaugural SME Barometer shows small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are upbeat about the year ahead, predicting annual revenue to rise by 6.3 per cent on averageBarclaycard sales data also reveals that UK businesses performed well in Q4 2019, with the total volume of merchant transactions up 5.1 per cent year-on-year

One in five SMEs said that they began trading internationally last year, with a further 10 per cent intending to start doing so in 2020The new report combines billions of merchant transactions processed by Barclaycard with research data to provide an in-depth look at the prospects of the UK SME economy

[RingoMcCartney]

So you can’t find one good piece of economic news then? Yes we’ve left - we are still paying in, still following their rules, still haven’t singed any deals, still governed by the ECJ - what is it we have left?

Here's one piece of economic good news.


House prices return to pre-financial crisis levels - CityAM


https://www.cityam.com/house-prices-ret ... is-levels/

Zoopla confirmed the same with Newcastle being the last city to return to pre crash prices!

And to think, that one of those pre referendum predictions that were presented as "evidence" , claimed there'd be a housing market crash following a vote to Leave , then subsequently leaving the EU !!

The simple passage of time has proven it wasnt "evidence." Just good old fashioned conjecture.

[RingoMcCartney]

So you can’t find one good piece of economic news then? Yes we’ve left - we are still paying in, still following their rules, still haven’t singed any deals, still governed by the ECJ - what is it we have left?

Here's one piece of economic good news.

The IMF has predicted that the UK economy will outperform the German, the French and the Eurozone as a whole in the next 18 months!

IMF: British economy ‘to grow faster than eurozone’ | The Week UK


https://www.theweek.co.uk/105298/imf-br ... n-eurozone

Two studies have forecast that Britain’s economy will grow faster than major Eurozone rivals this year.

[RingoMcCartney]

So you can’t find one good piece of economic news then? Yes we’ve left - we are still paying in, still following their rules, still haven’t singed any deals, still governed by the ECJ - what is it we have left?

You were right!

I couldn't find one piece of good economic news.

I found three!

[Devils_Advocate]

There we have it!

The People of Burnley dont know what's best for the People of Burnley!

You respond like it's a surprising statement. We pretty much go through our daily lives trusting skilled, trained and knowledgeable people to help make decisions for us cos in a lot of situations we genuinely aren't the best people to know whats best for ourselves (doctors, mechanics, financial advisors, architects, electricians etc).

Our political system is even set up so we choose someone who is better placed to make ongoing decisions about what is best for us.

We are responsible for ourselves and have the right to make our own decisions and decide whats best for us but anyone who blindly goes through life thinking they always know best is just an ignoramus

[RingoMcCartney]

You respond like it's a surprising statement. We pretty much go through our daily lives trusting skilled, trained and knowledgeable people to help make decisions for us cos in a lot of situations we genuinely aren't the best people to know whats best for ourselves (doctors, mechanics, financial advisors, architects, electricians etc).

Our political system is even set up so we choose someone who is better placed to make ongoing decisions about what is best for us.

We are responsible for ourselves and have the right to make our own decisions and decide whats best for us but anyone who blindly goes through life thinking they always know best is just an ignoramus

Your words! -

so we choose someone who is better placed to make ongoing decisions about what is best for us.

The People of Burnley, and many more towns in the North, chose to vote Leave and subsequently vote Tory. They believe they're better placed "to make ongoing decisions about what is best for us."

We are responsible for ourselves and have the right to make our own decisions and decide whats best for us

The People of Burnley, and many more towns in the North, made use of their "right" and made "our own decisions and decided what's best for us" when they voted to Leave , and voted Tory.

The People of Burnley have done exactly what you said they can and should do!!!


And yet. And yet!

the people of Burnley really aren't the people who know whats best for Burnley.

In other words, the People of Burnley will only know what's better for them rather than metropolitan bubble dwellers, IF theyd voted the same way as you, and think how you think!!

And Labour , and rejoiners, wonder why they lost, the referendum, election and the arguement!

[RingoMcCartney]

So you can’t find one good piece of economic news then? Yes we’ve left - we are still paying in, still following their rules, still haven’t singed any deals, still governed by the ECJ - what is it we have left?

Another piece of economic good news!

Press release | GfK United Kingdom

https://www.gfk.com/en-gb/insights/pres ... uary-2020/

UK Consumer Confidence improves by two points to -7 for February 2020

Consumer sentiment sees third monthly increase in a row

London, 28.02.2020

UK consumer confidence increases in February
https://www.talkingretail.com/news/indu ... 8-02-2020/


UK consumer confidence increases in February


“The rise in the Overall Index Score is driven by our increasingly positive view on the state of the UK’s general economy for both the past and the next 12 months. And, despite the fact that consumers have shown some concern about their day-to-day personal finances this month, a big five-point jump in the Major Purchase Index reflects the recent rebound in retail sales, as widely reported.

What was it that former chancellor Alistair Darling said in the pre referendum project fear?

"A vote to leave will see confidence in the uk economy evaporate overnight "

What did Cameron say?

"Voting to leave would be like putting a nuclear bomb under the british economy"

And this was held up as "evidence" wasnt it Burnley Ace.

It wasnt "evidence" at all.

It was pure, unadulterated, conjecture.....

[Devils_Advocate]

In other words, the People of Burnley will only know what's better for them rather than metropolitan bubble dwellers, IF theyd voted the same way as you, and think how you think!!

Nope, not even close.

I maintain for complex political and economical global issue the people of Burnley are not the best people to know whats best for them.

For political issues we have elected people to represent us. Thus a decision like leaving the EU should have been decided through Parliament and not through a referendum.

[RingoMcCartney]

Nope, not even close.

I maintain for complex political and economical global issue the people of Burnley are not the best people to know whats best for them.

For political issues we have elected people to represent us. Thus a decision like leaving the EU should have been decided through Parliament and not through a referendum.

The People of Burnley did what you're saying they should do. They elected various men and women to represent them!!!

These various representatives met, with other towns representatives in Parliament.

Parliament as a whole , because they were, in your own words-

in better placed to make ongoing decisions

decided to pass the "Final Say" as the Prime Representative, David Cameron, said, to The People.

They majority who voted, chose Leave.

They've done exactly as you say they should do!

We have the right to make our own decisions and decide whats best for us

They exercised their "right and decided" that voting tory for the first time in decades was what was best for them!!

They followed you recommendations to the letter!

But, in your lofty, holier than thou, sneering, and disconnected opinion. They made the cardinal sin of not "deciding" on the right representative. They showed themselves to be true ingnoramus's by making the wrong referendum choice!

It was you that chose the right representative.

It was you who chose the right option at the referendum!!

You know what's best for the People of Burnley than the People of Burnley do!!

At least you've admitted it! Andrew JB........!

Thousands and thousands of Burnley folk got it wrong. Whereas as you!, you knew what these poor misguided souls should've done!

You may want to revisit the meaning of ignoramus!

[Devils_Advocate]

The People of Burnley did what you're saying they should do. They elected various men and women to represent them!!!

These various representatives met, with other towns representatives in Parliament.

Parliament as a whole , because they were, in your own words-



decided to pass the "Final Say" as the Prime Representative, David Cameron, said, to The People.

They majority who voted, chose Leave.

They've done exactly as you say they should do!



They exercised their "right and decided" that voting tory for the first time in decades was what was best for them!!

They followed you recommendations to the letter!

But, in your lofty, holier than thou, sneering, and disconnected opinion. They made the cardinal sin of not "deciding" on the right representative. They showed themselves to be true ingnoramus's by making the wrong referendum choice!

It was you that chose the right representative.

It was you who chose the right option at the referendum!!

You know what's best for the People of Burnley than the People of Burnley do!!

At least you've admitted it! Andrew JB........!

Thousands and thousands of Burnley folk got it wrong. Whereas as you!, you knew what these poor misguided souls should've done!

You may want to revisit the meaning of ignoramus!

I've not criticised the people of Burnley or sneered at anyone in this exchange and my points have nothing to do with how anyone voted in the election or the referendum or what the results of either was.

Just to repeat my main point is that for complex political and economical global issues the majority of people are not informed or knowledgeable enough to understand and make a decision about which course of action is best for them. (I include myself in this)

I'll add to the above that I am not talking about knowing whats best for oneself in general terms but with regards to very specific issues and questions such as Brexit

[AndrewJB]

We are championing it because so far he is doing, or attempting to do, what he promised.
Explaining why again is pointless, I don't agree with you, then, now or in the future. As has been lauded many times over the last few weeks, our policy and goals on the environment far exceed the par in the EU. Our standing on workers rights and benefits is as good, and in many cases better than the EU. If we are already ahead of the game it wouldn't be necessary to leave to cut those standards, we could have stayed in and cut them. We can have trade without ground rules, or at least trade without the EU telling us what we can and can't do, on fishing for example, or who we can and can't strike deals with, or who we can refuse entry to this country to. We can have trade and just pay the tariffs, as a worst case scenario, only if that's the worst case it isn't bad.
As for putting our trust in Boris, who else was there offering to deliver what the country wanted. Certainly not Corbyn.
Just like Brussels you are frightened to death of Brexit being a success. It could be the end of the EU, and it would be the end of your brand of Socialism.

You can't claim we're drowning in EU red tape, and then not provide any examples of EU regulations we're not going to just turn into UK regulations.

And you're completely wrong if you think I'm desperate for Brexit to fail. I'd rather be mistaken and for it to succeed. I'm not young anymore, so would rather my remaining decades be spent in a prosperous and decent country. I just don't think Brexit will take us there.

[AndrewJB]

Another piece of economic good news!

Press release | GfK United Kingdom

https://www.gfk.com/en-gb/insights/pres ... uary-2020/

UK Consumer Confidence improves by two points to -7 for February 2020

Consumer sentiment sees third monthly increase in a row

London, 28.02.2020

UK consumer confidence increases in February
https://www.talkingretail.com/news/indu ... 8-02-2020/


UK consumer confidence increases in February


“The rise in the Overall Index Score is driven by our increasingly positive view on the state of the UK’s general economy for both the past and the next 12 months. And, despite the fact that consumers have shown some concern about their day-to-day personal finances this month, a big five-point jump in the Major Purchase Index reflects the recent rebound in retail sales, as widely reported.

What was it that former chancellor Alistair Darling said in the pre referendum project fear?

"A vote to leave will see confidence in the uk economy evaporate overnight "

What did Cameron say?

"Voting to leave would be like putting a nuclear bomb under the british economy"

And this was held up as "evidence" wasnt it Burnley Ace.

It wasnt "evidence" at all.

It was pure, unadulterated, conjecture.....

You're scraping the barrel looking for good news. Our economy has been stagnant for the last decade due to Tory austerity, and mismanagement of the economy. If you think that's going to change once we leave, then I'll sell you some bags of fresh sunlight for you to brighten up your cellar.

[KateR]

same people banging on for years regarding why it won't work, proven time and time again that the experts they quoted from the Bank of England and across a PM, numerous MP's why Brexit will never pass to the people of the UK just don't know enough to make a meaningful decision/vote to the majority who voted yes leave are just ignorant and stupid.

and then we have statements continually from those who provided link after link that the economy would fail, food, medical shortages etc. over years and even though not one, not one has come to fruition they still have there heads in the sand and still decry everything that is actually happening with statements like "scaping the barrel for good news". You're arguments would be better if you could provide that single piece of evidence in your empty barrel of doom and gloom.

Stop going on about austerity, it's happened, I believe the majority of people would agree with you that it was necessary but went on to long, quoting mismanagement of the economy is simply rubbish, particularly in the context of you wanted everything to remain the same because everything was rosy in the Garden under the EU wasn't it, surely it must have been the way you are clinging to your beliefs of your failure.

Brexit actually happened in case you missed it, done, finished, you were continual wrong during the years leading up to it so why not just wait and see what exactly this year brings, the good the bad and the ugly and then you can sneer, point out you were right all along.

[Tall Paul]

Brexit actually happened in case you missed it, done, finished

Really?

[KateR]

Really?

YES
did no one tell you?

We have left the EU, it's done, even the EU leader or ex leader) MB recently said this. Brexit was about leave or no leave, it's been signed and agreed, as I have said previously, it's just a matter of implementing the changes and agreeing a trade deal if any.

[aggi]

YES
did no one tell you?

We have left the EU, it's done, even the EU leader or ex leader) MB recently said this. Brexit was about leave or no leave, it's been signed and agreed, as I have said previously, it's just a matter of implementing the changes and agreeing a trade deal if any.

And this is a perfect illustration of how the narrative has managed to shift so it's not about results or reality or the future of the country. The only important thing is perception, soundbites and public image.

[Tall Paul]

YES
did no one tell you?

We have left the EU, it's done, even the EU leader or ex leader) MB recently said this. Brexit was about leave or no leave, it's been signed and agreed, as I have said previously, it's just a matter of implementing the changes and agreeing a trade deal if any.

That's fine then. Let's carry on as we are now, I'm sure everybody will be happy.

[Jakubclaret]

YES
did no one tell you?

We have left the EU, it's done, even the EU leader or ex leader) MB recently said this. Brexit was about leave or no leave, it's been signed and agreed, as I have said previously, it's just a matter of implementing the changes and agreeing a trade deal if any.

You would have thought that'd be common knowledge.

[KateR]

And this is a perfect illustration of how the narrative has managed to shift so it's not about results or reality or the future of the country. The only important thing is perception, soundbites and public image.

normally your posts are ok but I have no clue as to what you're trying to insinuate, there is no insinuation or soundbites just facts, let me try to recap because your argumentative approach is like my child when I explain facts to him. We had a referendum, vote leave won, went through agony until we had a GE, vote leave won, BJ and the Gov met with the EU and signed documents with a broad outline of how we would leave and we left.

now that broad outline is under discussion/negotiation whatever you want to call it, the agreement to leave is signed, now it's just agreeing on the terms and conditions, what is it you don't understand. I don't mean what is it you dislike or object to, so in clear terms and simplistic for me please provide the evidence that we might not leave or indeed have not left, nothing else, just that please. The fact we are operating under EU law and regulations does not alter the fact we left so please don't try to provide that as evidence as it would be bogus.

[RingoMcCartney]

I've not criticised the people of Burnley or sneered at anyone in this exchange and my points have nothing to do with how anyone voted in the election or the referendum or what the results of either was.

Just to repeat my main point is that for complex political and economical global issues the majority of people are not informed or knowledgeable enough to understand and make a decision about which course of action is best for them. (I include myself in this)

I'll add to the above that I am not talking about knowing whats best for oneself in general terms but with regards to very specific issues and questions such as Brexit

Your words -

so we choose someone who is better placed to make ongoing decisions about what is best for us.

We are responsible for ourselves and have the right to make our own decisions and decide whats best for us

I may be able to help you.

This is how Burnley has voted -

2005 Labour

2010 Liberal Democrat

2015 Labour

2016 Leave

2015 Labour

2017 Labour

2019 Conservative

It was the same constituency, ( no boundary changes) with pretty much the same constituents , with pretty electorate ( save younger people joining and older people dying and leaving the electoral roll)

In your opinion, in which years , did the same voters make the right or wrong "choice in choosing someone who is better placed to make ongoing decisions about what is best for them" as you put it?

In your opinion, in which years , did the same voters get it right or wrong when they exercised their, "right to make their own decisions and decide whats best for them"?

Which years?

[KateR]

That's fine then. Let's carry on as we are now, I'm sure everybody will be happy.

Paul, no one told you to be happy, you questioned a fact, I told you what I believe/know to be facts. I really really don't care whether you're happy about it or not, but you do know you have choices if you don't want to carry on with what BJ and the Gov are doing, that's down to you and you alone.