Covid-19

[Gordaleman]

Nobody knows only paulatky, and he refuses to answer why.

Must be a State Secret eh? I'll have a word with Daniel Craig.

[Claret32yrs]

Yes, I understand that, but why is Britain so far behind the rest of Europe? Don't people travel to the UK at the same speed?

Coronavirus has seen the weather we've had the last few months. Even it was considering abandoning coming here.

[FactualFrank]

Coronavirus death toll in Italy rises to 631 in biggest single day jump.

Italy's death toll has risen by 168 people in the space of 24 hours - with 631 people confirmed to have died after contracting the virus so far.

[paulatky]

No. You'll have seen that I've challenged him on quite a few occasions.

I said stock market would crash, pension funds become significantly underfunded,airlines would go bust and we would see mergers,house prices would fall.Econmic health to suffer more than personal health and UK would follow Italy in that we were 14 days behind them.
Also there could well be 100,000 + extra deaths in UK.

What of the above are incorrect

[Zlatan]

I said stock market would crash, pension funds become significantly underfunded,airlines would go bust and we would see mergers,house prices would fall.Econmic health to suffer more than personal health and UK would follow Italy in that we were 14 days behind them.
Also there could well be 100,000 + extra deaths in UK.

What of the above are incorrect

Qualify your post with links and references to where and when you said it, and then we can see how “right” you were.

Oh and we’ve had 6 deaths in the UK. I don’t even think China will reach anywhere near 100,000 deaths.

[Claret32yrs]

I said stock market would crash, pension funds become significantly underfunded,airlines would go bust and we would see mergers,house prices would fall.Econmic health to suffer more than personal health and UK would follow Italy in that we were 14 days behind them.
Also there could well be 100,000 + extra deaths in UK.

What of the above are incorrect

Do you have the winning lottery numbers for tomorrow night perchance?

[barba]

I mentioned this briefly before but no one responded, so let me ask again, as I've obviouy missed something.

Why is the UK considered to 13.5 days (Half a day?) behind Italy and why would that be case? The same thing is being applied to other European countries as well with different timescales.

I was wondering the same as to why the automatic assumption it will spread at the same rate as Italy?

I would say the factors which could be attributed to the high levels in Italy could be:

- Older demographic
- Intra-generational households
- Large family gatherings
- Kissing as a greating
- High cases of Flu and "excess mortality compared to other European countries. especially in the elderly"

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 1219303285

[Lowbankclaret]

Yes, I understand that, but why is Britain so far behind the rest of Europe? Don't people travel to the UK at the same speed?

Dr Hilary this morning said that Italy had a strategy of monitoring everyone who came back from China.

They didn’t start testing people who presented with symptoms till it had spread a lot and also didn’t do contact tracing either.


That was his explanation why Italy is worse.

[barba]

I said stock market would crash, pension funds become significantly underfunded,airlines would go bust and we would see mergers,house prices would fall.Econmic health to suffer more than personal health and UK would follow Italy in that we were 14 days behind them.
Also there could well be 100,000 + extra deaths in UK.

What of the above are incorrect

Aside from the stock market crash which after a long bull run wasn't unexpected have any of your other predictions actually happened?

[Claret32yrs]

- Kissing as a greating

I've found this to be highly frowned upon in the UK. Even more so when her legs are up in the air and her knickers are around her ankles. The wife doesn't approve of that sort of thing with the neighbour I have found.

[Gordaleman]

Also there could well be 100,000 + extra deaths in UK.

What of the above are incorrect

The stock markets were overdue a big correction, coronavirus was all the excuse they needed. The fact that they fell does not mean that the virus got worse. It just means that fear and uncertainly over the world's economy, that has always influenced markets, came into play.

As for your projection of 100,000 + deaths in the UK, I really con't know where you came up with that figure. Worldwide, there have been about 4,000 deaths and yet you think our small island will have 100,000 all on it's own. Crazy. Even so, that crazy figure is just one in 700 approximately.

[Gordaleman]

Dr Hilary this morning said that Italy had a strategy of monitoring everyone who came back from China.

They didn’t start testing people who presented with symptoms till it had spread a lot and also didn’t do contact tracing either.


That was his explanation why Italy is worse.

But that wasn't my question.

[FactualFrank]

Greece will shut schools, universities, daycare centres and other educational establishments for a two-week period to contain the spread of the coronavirus, the health minister has said.

[Paul Waine]

So Austria has placed a block on Italians crossing the border into Austria. I shared a gondola heading up the ski slopes this morning with 2 Italians who'd travelled to Austria to continue their ski team training. Lots of sponsors badges on their ski wear, including one that suggested they might be police officers.

Stable door, perhaps?

Edit: I'll let you all know the next game I'm attending.

[Grumps]

There’s a few select people on here who post who pretty much know exactly what’s going on or have a fair idea, I’d just check for updates, as & when, right now it’s the critical phase if it starts rising more than 54 on a daily basis doesn’t bode well.

Who are those people?

[Claret32yrs]

So Austria has placed a block on Italians crossing the border into Austria. I shared a gondola heading up the ski slopes this morning with 2 Italians who'd travelled to Austria to continue their ski team training. Lots of sponsors badges on their ski wear, including one that suggested they might be police officers.

Stable door, perhaps?

Does anyone else have this vision of two Italian police officers in native Italian costume carrying a Gondola and a couple of poles up a snowy mountain and one says to the other 'Act natural, I don't think anyone has noticed our cunning disguise'.

[Jakubclaret]

Who are those people?

I’m not starting arguments or naming names, it’d wouldn’t enrich the debate, generally speaking I feel we all should have an idea on who seems to be in loop, & the crux being on what’s said at 1 point & what really happens at a later point & the 2 things merging should be testament.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/heal ... 89271.html

Noticeable that the independent are running a similar line to the mail, admittedly I was 2 weeks out, paulatky said a month when we was discussing the UK roughly about 2 weeks ago, give or take a day.

[Gordaleman]

BBC 6pm news says Italy had poor early surveillance and also has the second highest percentage of elderly people in the world.

Maybe those two points explain why they are having such a bad time?

[Claret32yrs]

BBC 6pm news says Italy had poor early surveillance and also has the second highest percentage of elderly people in the world.

Maybe those two points explain why they are having such a bad time?

Was married to an Italian. Emphasis on family is way stronger than here. May explain some of it. One of those ironic and sad moments when being 'close' is a bad thing. Family is huge there. Likelihood of cross contamination therefore is more likely. Still doesn't necessarily explain how it got so rampant to begin with, but from then on. Obvious. Same with Asian, predominantly Muslim. Who also put a great deal of emphasis on physical contact and family. It's not a huge surprise it's spreading more rapidly in nations where close social interaction is normal. A saving grace for here is that we're naturally reserved generally. It'll still spread, but nowhere near as quickly.

[Gordaleman]

Was married to an Italian. Emphasis on family is way stronger than here. May explain some of it. One of those ironic and sad moments when being 'close' is a bad thing. Family is huge there. Likelihood of cross contamination therefore is more likely. Still doesn't necessarily explain how it got so rampant to begin with, but from then on. Obvious. Same with Asian, predominantly Muslim. Who also put a great deal of emphasis on physical contact and family. It's not a huge surprise it's spreading more rapidly in nations where close social interaction is normal. A saving grace for here is that we're naturally reserved generally. It'll still spread, but nowhere near as quickly.

Never been to Italy. I'm sure it's a wonderful place with wonderful people but it does seem that in different ways they have shot themselves in the foot. Mainly I think because of the poor early surveillance which probaly allowed hundreds of people to become infected but also, as you say, close family ties. People will have been greeting each other with kisses and cuddles, probably fot several days at least, before the authorities did much.

To be honest, I'm not sure Britain has done enough either but I don't think we'll be as bad as Italy.

You're also right about British people being rather more reserved.

[Blackrod]

For a bit of perspective:

The Chinese Population is over 1.4 billion unless I’m mistaken and 89,000 have been infected ( not died).
This is a relatively small percentage at 0.006%.

[Grumps]

I’m not starting arguments or naming names, it’d wouldn’t enrich the debate, generally speaking I feel we all should have an idea on who seems to be in loop, & the crux being on what’s said at 1 point & what really happens at a later point & the 2 things merging should be testament.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/heal ... 89271.html

Noticeable that the independent are running a similar line to the mail, admittedly I was 2 weeks out, paulatky said a month when we was discussing the UK roughly about 2 weeks ago, give or take a day.

I never get people who say things, then say, I'd rather not say anymore
I can guarantee one thing, nobody on here is in the loop, nobody on here knows what is going to happen. If you think they do I feel sorry for you.

[Gordaleman]

For a bit of perspective:

The Chinese Population is over 1.4 billion unless I’m mistaken and 89,000 have been infected ( not died).
This is a relatively small percentage at 0.006%.

It's been said before but it just doesn't get through to some people.

[Grumps]

Never been to Italy. I'm sure it's a wonderful place with wonderful people but it does seem that in different ways they have shot themselves in the foot. Mainly I think because of the poor early surveillance which probaly allowed hundreds of people to become infected but also, as you say, close family ties. People will have been greeting each other with kisses and cuddles, probably fot several days at least, before the authorities did much.

To be honest, I'm not sure Britain has done enough either but I don't think we'll be as bad as Italy.

You're also right about British people being rather more reserved.

Like I said a few days ago, Italians greet each other with a kiss, or three. We don't. A good reason not to compare the two countries

[Claret32yrs]

Never been to Italy. I'm sure it's a wonderful place with wonderful people but it does seem that in different ways they have shot themselves in the foot. Mainly I think because of the poor early surveillance which probaly allowed hundreds of people to become infected but also, as you say, close family ties. People will have been greeting each other with kisses and cuddles, probably fot several days at least, before the authorities did much.

To be honest, I'm not sure Britain has done enough either but I don't think we'll be as bad as Italy.

You're also right about British people being rather more reserved.

Don't think there's right or wrong in this instance. It's unprecedented. We just have to work through it. We can't expect the PM to click his heels and have all the answers. Just as if Jeremy Corbyn had been in power, or whoever. Nobody has answers. Everyone is winging it. Time to pull together. We're jolly good at that.

[Jakubclaret]

I never get people who say things, then say, I'd rather not say anymore
I can guarantee one thing, nobody on here is in the loop, nobody on here knows what is going to happen. If you think they do I feel sorry for you.

Nobody can be sure, I’ll agree with you there, we can predict with a certain degree of accuracy but never 100%, my prediction will be it’s going to hit the NHS massive in about - you’ll get the 2 week trickle down & then a further bigger instalment in early mid April to late, let’s just see if I’m right.

[FactualFrank]

One of the few mercies of the spreading coronavirus is that it leaves young children virtually untouched — a mystery virologists say may hold vital clues as to how the virus works.

In China, only 2.4 percent of reported cases were children and only 0.2 percent of reported cases were children who got critically ill, according to the World Health Organization. China has reported no case of a young child dying of the disease covid-19.

That means the new coronavirus is behaving very differently from other viruses, like seasonal influenza, which are usually especially dangerous for the very young and very old.

“With respiratory infections like this, we usually see a U-shaped curve on who gets hits hardest. Young children at one end of the U because their immune systems aren’t yet developed and old people at the other end because their immune systems grow weaker,” said Vineet Menachery, a virologist at the University of Texas Medical Branch. “With this virus, one side of the U is just completely missing.”

Some experts have floated a theory that because children are so heavily exposed to four other mild coronaviruses, which circulate every year and cause the common cold, that may give kids some kind of strengthened immunity. But many have doubts about that argument because adults catch the common cold coronaviruses too, and the immune systems of children — especially under the age of five — are underdeveloped, which should make them more vulnerable, not less.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2 ... eat-virus/

[Claret32yrs]

you’ll get the 2 week trickle down & then a further bigger instalment in early mid April to late, let’s just see if I’m right.

I get the trickle down already but that's just because I don't shake it enough....

[Zlatan]

But many have doubts about that argument because adults catch the common cold coronaviruses too, and the immune systems of children — especially under the age of five — are underdeveloped, which should make them more vulnerable, not less.

I read some papers regarding people who are immunosuppressed and it links the immune system over reacting in the lungs in normal people which intensifies the damage done, hence those with lower immune responses (like children and people who are immunosuppressed) may in fact handle the virus better.

[AlargeClaret]

Nobody can be sure, I’ll agree with you there, we can predict with a certain degree of accuracy but never 100%, my prediction will be it’s going to hit the NHS massive in about - you’ll get the 2 week trickle down & then a further bigger instalment in early mid April to late, let’s just see if I’m right.

You’re simply quoting the general official medical consensus which is out there for all to see . To think that you might be some sort of scientific genius with your swinging d1ck quotes it’s almost a parody.
# mysticbellend

[Gordaleman]

One of the few mercies of the spreading coronavirus is that it leaves young children virtually untouched — a mystery virologists say may hold vital clues as to how the virus works.

In China, only 2.4 percent of reported cases were children and only 0.2 percent of reported cases were children who got critically ill, according to the World Health Organization. China has reported no case of a young child dying of the disease covid-19.

That means the new coronavirus is behaving very differently from other viruses, like seasonal influenza, which are usually especially dangerous for the very young and very old.

“With respiratory infections like this, we usually see a U-shaped curve on who gets hits hardest. Young children at one end of the U because their immune systems aren’t yet developed and old people at the other end because their immune systems grow weaker,” said Vineet Menachery, a virologist at the University of Texas Medical Branch. “With this virus, one side of the U is just completely missing.”

Some experts have floated a theory that because children are so heavily exposed to four other mild coronaviruses, which circulate every year and cause the common cold, that may give kids some kind of strengthened immunity. But many have doubts about that argument because adults catch the common cold coronaviruses too, and the immune systems of children — especially under the age of five — are underdeveloped, which should make them more vulnerable, not less.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2 ... eat-virus/

Maybe it's an alien invasion from the planet Zog? The aliens will kill off all the adults who might fight them, and then they will be able to eat our children at their leisure.

Well, it's no crazier than some of the crackpot ideas and figures I've heard on here.

[Jakubclaret]

You’re simply quoting the general official medical consensus which is out there for all to see . To think that you might be some sort of scientific genius with your swinging d1ck quotes it’s almost a parody.
# mysticbellend

You show me the consensus which states what I’m predicting I’d love to see it.

[Claret32yrs]

Maybe it's an alien invasion from the planet Zog? The aliens will kill off all the adults who might fight them, and then they will be able to eat our children at their leisure.

Hmm. Netflix! I have this cool idea for a series!

[Gordaleman]

Hmm. Netflix! I have this cool idea for a series!

Off topic:

Does your name mean that you have been watching Burnley for 32 years, or that you are 32 years old?

I'm 72 and I've been watching them since I was four at least. I know that, because my Father died when I was four, and he used to take me on.

[Claret32yrs]

Off topic:

Does your name mean that you have been watching Burnley for 32 years, or that you are 32 years old?

I'm 72 and I've been watching them since I was four at least. I know that, because my Father died when I was four, and he used to take me on.

No it should be Claret 42. Been a Claret since 78. I'd already registered when I realised I was ten years out. Mind you. I wish I was 37 . I'm 47 next month. First went on in 78.

[mdd2]

I think SARS also spared children from severe illness and proportionally fewer were infected

[RingoMcCartney]

Bloody good job theres strong border checks in place, all across Europe , which will help to stop people , who may be carriers, moving freely and spreading the virus across the continent.







Oh hang on......

[Devils_Advocate]

I've lost track / failed to keep up with all the discussions on this topic but the question I haven't seen anyone ask and the answer that might hold the key to this is whether Jakub's postman is still smiling and looking cheerful with a spring in his step?

Im weary about so called experts and facts but if there's one thing we can rely on to tell us how serious things are then its got to be Jakubs postman and his general demeanor

[Zlatan]

Bloody good job theres strong border checks in place, all across Europe , which will help to stop people , who may be carriers, moving freely and spreading the virus across the continent.







Oh hang on......

Ringo, without wanting to sound rude, please keep your politics out of this thread.

[Claret32yrs]

Bloody good job theres strong border checks in place, all across Europe , which will help to stop people , who may be carriers, moving freely and spreading the virus across the continent.






Oh hang on......

Think that's changed, unless you carry a Gondola and act inconspicuous.

[Claret32yrs]

I've lost track / failed to keep up with all the discussions on this topic but the question I haven't seen anyone ask and the answer that might hold the key to this is whether Jakub's postman is still smiling and looking cheerful with a spring in his step?

Im weary about so called experts and facts but if there's one thing we can rely on to tell us how serious things are then its got to be Jakubs postman and his general demeanor

[Claret32yrs]

Zlatan, without wanting to sound rude, the truth hurts.

I think Zlatan's polite way of saying. This is a serious thread (Ok I'm not taking it that seriously, you have to laugh or you'll cry) but it's not a political football. It's something that is global and borders and seas make no difference. It's not the time nor place for points scoring mate. It's a time to pull together and reflect.

[Lowbankclaret]

Zlatan, without wanting to sound rude, the truth hurts.

Ringo, your coming across as a raving racist.

[Claret32yrs]

Ringo, your coming across as a raving racist.

Not sure that's fair. Misguided comments maybe. I get the 'fear factor' but it's not racist. I'd use words more akin to worried. We all lash out when worried, scared. Fear of the unexpected. The ideology of this being contained by closing borders is just not realistic as we are a global economy. I think he's just misguided and worried. We're all worried.

[RingoMcCartney]

I think Zlatan's polite way of saying. This is a serious thread (Ok I'm not taking it that seriously, you have to laugh or you'll cry) but it's not a political football. It's something that is global and borders and seas make no difference. It's not the time nor place for points scoring mate. It's a time to pull together and reflect.

What makes you think I dont , for one minute, take this serious?

Austria and Slovenia have beefed up border controls with Italy.

Borders provide protection.

However , in many parts of europe , thanks to the EUs policies, the borders between nations are non existent and the physical infrastructure of former checkpoints, has been allowed to fall into disrepair. Had it not, border checks would have surely helped in quarantining.

FREE MOVEMENT OF PEOPLE = FREE MOVEMENT OF VIRUS.

[Gordaleman]

What makes you think I dont , for one minute, take this serious?

Austria and Slovenia have beefed up border controls with Italy.

Borders provide protection.

However , in many parts of europe , thanks to the EUs policies, the borders between nations are non existent and the physical infrastructure of former checkpoints, has been allowed to fall into disrepair. Had it not, border checks would have surely helped in quarantining.

FREE MOVEMENT OF PEOPLE = FREE MOVEMENT OF VIRUS.

Now we all know you're a racist. What a load of tosh.

[RingoMcCartney]

Now we all know you're a racist. What a load of tosh.

[Lowbankclaret]

Not sure that's fair. Misguided comments maybe. I get the 'fear factor' but it's not racist. I'd use words more akin to worried. We all lash out when worried, scared. Fear of the unexpected. The ideology of this being contained by closing borders is just not realistic as we are a global economy. I think he's just misguided and worried. We're all worried.

Whilst we have had debates, fall outs, name calling and bullying on this thread.

Only one one person pops up with racist remarks.

No surprise to me it’s Ringo.

[Bfcboyo]

Screenshot_20200310-200856_Samsung Internet.jpg (181.12 KiB) Viewed 3914 times

I know we will be above Holland by Saturday. Come on we can do this.

[Zlatan]

Whilst we have had debates, fall outs, name calling and bullying on this thread.

Only one one person pops up with racist remarks.

No surprise to me it’s Ringo.

Personally I’d like him banned from the forum because he ruins debate