Covid-19

[Taffy on the wing]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/as ... story.html
Have a look at this.....it shows what can be done, if you get your priorities right.

[Taffy on the wing]

And before i hear ...but it's not densely populated.....https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/04/worl ... -rate.html

[CombatClaret]

I think they don't want to discuss the exit plan because it is very far away, and admitting that would cause good many people to just give up on social distancing.
There's going to have to be another concerted effort once we are past the peak, some people may assume that's the worst over with and will do the exact things which will cause it to rise again.

[CombatClaret]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/as ... story.html
Have a look at this.....it shows what can be done, if you get your priorities right.

One of the most vocal denouncers of 'herd immunity' (well them, WHO, CDC, vast majority of the scientific community & countless governments).

[Paul Waine]

I guess this won't be a popular view but.....the journalists yesterday did not ask about an exit plan (ie dates) but an exit strategy ....which to my mind involves discussing the sort of measures we put in place at some as yet unspecified point in the future. The answer they got on each occasion appeared to be "We haven't thought about yet"....which in my view is a rubbish answer. I would hope (and actually I believe) that the government have people working very hard on establishing what measures can be used when the present situation is loosened. Mr Raab and his chums would have looked much better if they had said words to the effect of "We are looking at that right now but cannot finalise our plan until we have the epidemic under control".

Hi keith, you may find the link I posted yesterday evening concerning an essay in TLS interesting: "The Kangaroo Curve."

[Paul Waine]

I note today that once again Dominic Raab isn't answering questions. Laura Kuenssberg and Robert Peston have both asked a simple question really......is he in charge? He just waffles about collective responsibility. If he wants to stop people from asking the same question over and over again then he might try answering it.

To be fair, I'd hope that Kuenssberg and Peston had better knowledge of UK constitution and understood how cabinet government works. What else could the deputy PM say, any deputy PM?

[tiger76]

I think they don't want to discuss the exit plan because it is very far away, and admitting that would cause good many people to just give up on social distancing.
There's going to have to be another concerted effort once we are past the peak, some people may assume that's the worst over with and will do the exact things which will cause it to rise again.

Sums up my thoughts as well,i'm sure the cabinet are holding regular discussions as too when too lessen the restrictions,however this doesn't mean it'll be anywhere close to life as normal,any loosening of the current instructions will have to be gradual,and based on the NHS being able to cope.

My worry is once the peak has been reached the public will take their eyes off the ball,and this is dangerous,because that's what could easily spark a 2nd wave.

[CombatClaret]

FYI amazing efforts going on in NYC including the Department of Education offering free meals to anyone no questions asked.
Sensible distanced queuing for boxes and to-go container of salads, sandwiches, cereal, snacks etc 3 times a day.

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[tiger76]

Key points from the daily briefing,and there is light at the end of the tunnel maybe.

Today's briefing was chaired by Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab who is standing in for Boris Johnson, who remains in intensive care.

He was joined by Sir Patrick Vallance, the chief scientific adviser, and the chief medical officer, Chris Whitty. Here's what they told us:

It is possible we are seeing the start of the flattening of the curve of infections, as the number of new cases is not growing exponentially. The same may be true of hospital admissions, but we won't know for sure for another week or so

Because of the lag between admissions and deaths, we can expect the number of deaths to level off in two to three weeks' time

The government is following instructions already set out by Mr Johnson. Any new decisions will be made under the principle of cabinet responsibility, but Mr Raab will deputise for Mr Johnson "as long as is necessary"

Despite news that an antibody test, which can show if someone has had the virus, will not be ready in time, the government's aim to carry out 100,000 tests a day by the end of the month "still stands"

I have doubts about them reaching the 100,000 tests per day by the end of April,there was 14,006 tests carried out on Monday,so although the testing capacity is increasing,it's not growing hugely.

[CombatClaret]

Despite news that an antibody test, which can show if someone has had the virus, will not be ready in time, the government's aim to carry out 100,000 tests a day by the end of the month "still stands"

"We are going up from 5,000 to 10,000 tests per day, to 25,000, hopefully *very soon* up to 250,000 per day”. - Boris Johnson, March 25th

[jrgbfc]

Not a chance they're going to hit their target by the end of April. I get the feeling they're just making it up as they go along when it comes to testing.

[KateR]

aim, hopefully, I want to see stretch targets coming from the top and used to "drive" others to achieve the maximum regardless of the number, that's what leaders do but others just see it as an excuse to blame, failure and lies, so I guess it just depends on how you read and interpret certain words.

But I do love how we are all in this together and pulling in the same direction, same people deriding the queens speech probably.

[tiger76]

Bit more info of how the curve could hopefully be flattening.

Today’s figures are a record high and bring the currently reported death toll above 6,000 for the first time.

Today's 786 is higher than Saturday’s previous peak of 708 deaths reported in a single day.

We also know that this figure misses deaths that occurred but have not yet been reported, so the true death toll at this point is likely higher.

If there is any silver lining to these grim figures, it is that they represent the fourth day in a row of below-trend growth.

For weeks up until Friday’s figures, the number of deaths had been doubling every three-and-a-half days.

Had that trend continued, we would have seen close to 1,400 deaths today.

So 786 is better than that – although it’s still too soon to know what’s causing it.

It could be a big bottleneck in reporting (we’ve seen that after previous weekends) or genuine evidence that growth is truly slowing down.

More hopefully, for almost a week now, daily new cases of infection have been holding steady at about 4,000 a day, suggesting that while we are still seeing new cases, the growth in this figure could be stalling.

[Lowbankclaret]

Apologies for ******* on the chips of positiveness.
I have not watched any news or looked at any data now for over 48 hours .

In the last 48 as a group we have made 160 Face Shields and have orders for as many as we can make.
Hospitals, Ambulances, GP surgeries, care homes, hospices, funeral directors, all are out of PPE. All out but all telling they have been told not to repeat it.
Care homes told not to ring an ambulance for a patient with Covid in the home, leave them where they are.

My phone has not stopped for 48 hour's.
There’s a reality on the front line.
There’s An alternate one in the news.

If any one feels they would like to help with funds for printers or materials it will make a real difference to those on the from line we have a just giving page.

https://www.justgiving.com/crowdfunding ... =WKWj6v72q

[Grumps]

The experts saying not to take too much notice of daily figs, more the admissions figs over a period of time.
Some of those in today's death figs are from 12th March, so not a 24hr fig

[Taffy on the wing]

aim, hopefully, I want to see stretch targets coming from the top and used to "drive" others to achieve the maximum regardless of the number, that's what leaders do but others just see it as an excuse to blame, failure and lies, so I guess it just depends on how you read and interpret certain words.

But I do love how we are all in this together and pulling in the same direction, same people deriding the queens speech probably.

Give it a rest!

[Lowbankclaret]

The experts saying not to take too much notice of daily figs, more the admissions figs over a period of time.
Some of those in today's death figs are from 12th March, so not a 24hr fig

There people dying of this all around Lancs.
None counted in the figures.
The people dealing with them have NO PPE.

Not the best way to stop it spreading.

We are in deep poo and the Gov is glossing over it.

This is going to get messy.

[KateR]

Give it a rest!

can you please stop stalking me, it's creepy.

if you don't like what I post just ignore, like what I do a lot on numerous posters/posts I don't like. Or just say you don't agree, we obviously look at virtually everything differently so I promise I will accept everything I post is something you don't like

[Grumps]

There people dying of this all around Lancs.
None counted in the figures.
The people dealing with them have NO PPE.

Not the best way to stop it spreading.

We are in deep poo and the Gov is glossing over it.

This is going to get messy.

Other than hospitals I can only speak of one other place I have first hand knowledge of in the care sector and they have all the ppe they require. Not sure why, if they can get it, others in the care sector struggle, bad management?

[KateR]

Apologies for ******* on the chips of positiveness.
I have not watched any news or looked at any data now for over 48 hours .

In the last 48 as a group we have made 160 Face Shields and have orders for as many as we can make.
Hospitals, Ambulances, GP surgeries, care homes, hospices, funeral directors, all are out of PPE. All out but all telling they have been told not to repeat it.
Care homes told not to ring an ambulance for a patient with Covid in the home, leave them where they are.

My phone has not stopped for 48 hour's.
There’s a reality on the front line.
There’s An alternate one in the news.

If any one feels they would like to help with funds for printers or materials it will make a real difference to those on the from line we have a just giving page.

https://www.justgiving.com/crowdfunding ... =WKWj6v72q

well done you, 48% there now, awesome effort

[taio]

There people dying of this all around Lancs.
None counted in the figures.
The people dealing with them have NO PPE.

Not the best way to stop it spreading.

We are in deep poo and the Gov is glossing over it.

This is going to get messy.

Well done for everything you're doing.

PPE is a significant issue but suggesting blanket fashion that organisations and frontline staff don't have PPE is incorrect. More needs to done for certain but many health and care providers and frontline staff have access to PPE. Some have run out of stock, or are running low so are understandably anxious. Tens of millions of items are being distributed each day.

[Lowbankclaret]

Other than hospitals I can only speak of one other place I have first hand knowledge of in the care sector and they have all the ppe they require. Not sure why, if they can get it, others in the care sector struggle, bad management?

So why do I have a spreadsheet of places that don’t have PPE.
I know they have all been told not to say they have a problem by authorities, as I have today.. so I guess your getting your the PC version.

As a group we are printing 50 a day. MacMillian just asked for some urgently which will be priority number one tomorrow.

Pendleside got 20 today, Yorkshire Ambulance 20 in the morning.
2 GP surgeries that were shut have been able to reopen.
Leeds, Burnley and Blackburn Hospitals in next two days.
Several care homes later this week.

The story you have is certainly not the one I have. I have been on the phone to all of them personally.
Funeral directors

[Jakubclaret]

Well done for everything you're doing.

PPE is a significant issue but suggesting blanket fashion that organisations and frontline staff don't have PPE is incorrect. More needs to done for certain but many health and care providers and frontline staff have access to PPE. Some have run out of stock, or are running low so are understandably anxious. Tens of millions of items are being distributed each day.

In some cases though, it's more severe than running low it's actually running out through not being aware the stock is running low &:not replenishing or ordering when low & not anticipating how quick the stock will run out combined with the slightest delay emerges the problem. It cannot be understated when this happens the magnitude of difficulty this causes, from putting people life's at risk, you don't even need to obligate to any purchases with don't use &: return, it's vital more is ordered though, chances are it will be used anyway if not for coronavirus for something else.

[Lowbankclaret]

Other than hospitals I can only speak of one other place I have first hand knowledge of in the care sector and they have all the ppe they require. Not sure why, if they can get it, others in the care sector struggle, bad management?

Why are all these places contacting us if you as you say they have PPE. Feel free to google them all.

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[Zlatan]

Your doing your bit Lowbankclaret, well done. I don’t understand the shortage either though, especially when there are commercial companies producing thousands of them.

https://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/bus ... 529946?amp

[taio]

In some cases though, it's more severe than running low it's actually running out through not being aware the stock is running low &:not replenishing or ordering when low & not anticipating how quick the stock will run out combined with the slightest delay emerges the problem. It cannot be understated when this happens the magnitude of difficulty this causes, from putting people life's at risk, you don't even need to obligate to any purchases with don't use &: return, it's vital more is ordered though, chances are it will be used anyway if not for coronavirus for something else.

I didn't just say running low.

[Lowbankclaret]

Your doing your bit Lowbankclaret, well done. I don’t understand the shortage either though, especially when there are commercial companies producing thousands of them.

https://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/bus ... 529946?amp

I have been brought down to earth with a bang.
I am ringing each contact and talking to them about what they need.
I have nearly been in tears several times talking to them.
We just cannot print enough fast enough.
Luckily Hospital infection control approved cleaning between patients or you could factor this up massively.
Pic of the face Shields.

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[dsr]

But there must be a reason why not as many Germans are dying in critical care when neither country can cure patients.

If there are 5 people on the ward, and the Germans put all 5 on ventilators, and 1 dies, then that's 20% of critical care patients dying. If the same 5 people were on the ward and the British put only 2 on ventilators, and 1 dies, then that's 50% of critical care patients dying.

But of the 3 not on ventilators, if one of them dies in the UK who would not have died in Germany, then we have a problem. I have no idea whether that would be the case. It does not necessarily follow that Germany are saving more people by putting more people on ventilators.

[Jakubclaret]

I didn't just say running low.

I know, you acknowledged both scenarios, it's obviously a problem sourcing, whether that's ordering or distribution or both is a guess, does seem to be improving day by day generally speaking.

[Lowbankclaret]

Care homes have been told that if a inpatient has Covid, don’t ring an ambulance.

Just keep them there and deal with it.

With no PPE.

Plus they do t count on the figures.

[taio]

Care homes have been told that if a inpatient has Covid, don’t ring an ambulance.

Just keep them there and deal with it.

With no PPE.

Plus they do t count on the figures.

This is the guidance to care homes on dealing with symptomatic residents:

Any resident presenting with symptoms of COVID-19 should be promptly isolated (see Annex C for further detail), and separated in a single room with a separate bathroom, where possible. Contact the NHS 111 COVID-19 service for advice on assessment and testing. If further clinical assessment is advised, contact their GP. If symptoms worsen during isolation or are no better after 7 days, contact their GP for further advice around escalation and to ensure person-centred decision making is followed. For a medical emergency dial 999.

[dsr]

Care homes have been told that if a inpatient has Covid, don’t ring an ambulance.

Just keep them there and deal with it.

With no PPE.

Plus they do t count on the figures.

Are you saying that all care homes have been told that no residents with coronavirus should be sent to hospital? Or is it the normal form of of "DNR" for the worst affected?

For example, my grandmother had pneumonia in a nursing home and there was no question of any of us (home or us) ringing the hospital. Simply no point.

[Zlatan]

Care homes have been told that if a inpatient has Covid, don’t ring an ambulance.

Just keep them there and deal with it.

With no PPE.

Plus they do t count on the figures.

Isn’t that the same advice for everyone though? The issue with care homes is agency workers who have the potential to transmit the virus between patients and other care homes. That and of course that the patients are in the group who are statistically most likely to die. I still have a problem with identifying “Norman, the 85 year old with heart and liver failure” as a COVID-19 victim if he tests positive for it though after succumbing to his illnesses, but that’s the stats game isn’t it

[Lowbankclaret]

Just saying what I have been told.
Covid suspected residents will not be taken to hospital.

The care homes are telling me they don’t have PPE to protect their employees.
So we will provide what we can as soon as possible.

[taio]

Just saying what I have been told.
Covid suspected residents will not be taken to hospital.

The care homes are telling me they don’t have PPE to protect their employees.
So we will provide what we can as soon as possible.

I don't doubt for a moment what you say you've been told. But understandably there is misinformation and misunderstanding although not helpful. COVID-19 symptomatic will be taken to hospital if they need acute health care based on clinical judgement. Otherwise they will rightly remain at home and be closely monitored.

[Jakubclaret]

In some ways you are safer at home than in a hospital, didn't Eddie large contact it whilst in hospital.

[quoonbeatz]

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/ ... ssion=true

[Elizabeth]

I so dislike this highlighting of doom

[KateR]

good to see some others donating large sums to help now and in the future:

https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-52209690

[paulatky]

I don't doubt for a moment what you say you've been told. But understandably there is misinformation and misunderstanding although not helpful. COVID-19 symptomatic will be taken to hospital if they need acute health care based on clinical judgement. Otherwise they will rightly remain at home and be closely monitored.

Heard the same from another council area.

Sad but true

[Jakubclaret]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... -days.html
Seems promising, still some distance to go but 1 of the stronger contenders, a few other media outlets are running the same line, apologies if already posted.
A diet consisting of iodine, tuna shrimp,can be effective also.
https://www.theartofhealing.com.au/iodi ... foods.html

[SalouClaret]

2 members of my household work frontline fighting the virus for the NHS (one is getting up for work now, hence me being awake so early)

One works at Blackburn and they are fine in regards to PPE. The other, however, works at St James's in Leeds and has a mask that is useless and currently no eye protection.

I'm scared.


The union has told staff at Leeds not to work until they are fully equipped to do so safely, but the staff really do care about patients.


Keep up the good work, Lowbank.

[Grumps]

So why do I have a spreadsheet of places that don’t have PPE.
I know they have all been told not to say they have a problem by authorities, as I have today.. so I guess your getting your the PC version.

As a group we are printing 50 a day. MacMillian just asked for some urgently which will be priority number one tomorrow.

Pendleside got 20 today, Yorkshire Ambulance 20 in the morning.
2 GP surgeries that were shut have been able to reopen.
Leeds, Burnley and Blackburn Hospitals in next two days.
Several care homes later this week.

The story you have is certainly not the one I have. I have been on the phone to all of them personally.
Funeral directors

I Carnt answer why you have a spreadsheet
As I said, I can only speak for one place, iam not making it up, like you've admitted doing in the past.
It's first hand knowledge, it's up to you if you believe it or not

[LoveCurryPies]

Some good news...

The number of people having heart attacks is much lower than normal. Maybe those attacks brought on by the stress of driving or rail travel etc. Similarly, reduced number of people injured or killed in car accidents.

It’s helping the hospitals cope with the coronavirus.

[CombatClaret]

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/ ... ssion=true

Very interesting & important article. Shows we really got it wrong.

[Lowbankclaret]

well done you, 48% there now, awesome effort

KateR,

Thank you so much for you donation.
That helps us order another printer.

I have just been furloughed, so this is now my full time job for as long as this continues.

[Lowbankclaret]

I Carnt answer why you have a spreadsheet
As I said, I can only speak for one place, iam not making it up, like you've admitted doing in the past.
It's first hand knowledge, it's up to you if you believe it or not

I have it because I am coordinating the effort to get PPE to all these places who have no PPE.

People are desperate for it.

[Grumps]

I have it because I am coordinating the effort to get PPE to all these places who have no PPE.

People are desperate for it.

And the one you keep with the virus death figs on?
I take it you accept iam not telling lies?

[CombatClaret]

Yesterday's numbers, FT now using daily numbers (with a spline function) not a 7 day average.

EVCaZonXQAIoCOp.jpg (223.6 KiB) Viewed 2746 times

https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status ... 7566490626

[Tall Paul]

Some good news...

The number of people having heart attacks is much lower than normal. Maybe those attacks brought on by the stress of driving or rail travel etc. Similarly, reduced number of people injured or killed in car accidents.

It’s helping the hospitals cope with the coronavirus.

I had to call an ambulance for my wife, who had one yesterday morning. She's a theatre nurse and was due to start working in Southport ITU today. I suspect the stress and apprehension of that was a contributory factor.

Thankfully, it was mild and she's recovering well in Broadgreen hospital, but I can't go and see her because of this bloody virus.