Covid-19

[thatdberight]

I just do, common sense, I think you've been watching too many episodes of silent witness & think all the mortuaries are like the Lyell, it's a straightforward process signing off, the sensitivity with the family also plays a massive part & respectful considerations are an normality.

I have no idea what you're talking about with the (I presume) TV reference. I stopped after "I just do, common sense..." after you'd told me about the detail of coroner's procedures.

What you said actually means that you just made it up.

[thatdberight]

You just do not get me at all do you.
So here is me going to care homes, funeral directors, etc . Yes respecting social distancing. They need our help , so it needs to be done.
The data says we are in the sh1t.

You just keep taking the **** and making it joke of it.

When you do good things, I support you. No matter how much rubbish you talk on here, that won't stop me supporting the good things.

[quoonbeatz]

In the event of an homeless person's death the coroner would swiftly record it without even investigating, you'd see the track marks ect & swiftly sign it off.

Ha, what?

[Jakubclaret]

A young Lad in manor park was stressed his mum stopped him from going out for weed.he comitted suicide....the Body was not removed from the house for 3 days. Some crap situations going on.

A lot could be said & debated there, a tragic waste of young lads life, I’m not judging I don’t know the full story, yes I agree it’s crap for everybody at the moment, I feel for the mum in a way.

[tim_noone]

A lot could be said & debated there, a tragic waste of young lads life, I’m not judging I don’t know the full story, yes I agree it’s crap for everybody at the moment, I feel for the mum in a way.

My point being though it wasnt dealt with swiftly...it took 3 days.

[TVC15]

In the event of an homeless person's death the coroner would swiftly record it without even investigating, you'd see the track marks ect & swiftly sign it off, if it's suspicious circumstances the need for a detailed examination would be necessary, a coroner simply doesn't have the time to investigate every single death unless it's suspicious, the morgues simply don't have the capacity as well to be stacking corpses up whilst investigations are being carried out.

You’re making this up right ?
Where are you getting this from ?

[Jakubclaret]

My point being though it wasnt dealt with swiftly...it took 3 days.

Yes I know some cases will, if it’s straightforward less, it’s 3 days because of the lockdown it’s changing everything you’ve even got to have no more than 10 people at the funeral gathering, with the social distancing if it’s a short person will the pole bearers be exempt. I read today the Muslim funerals are speeded up contrary to the Islamic traditions.

[Bordeauxclaret]

lol at you calling me naive. You keep licking those boots, lad.

The approach and decisions the government is taking should be being questioned every step of the way. They should be transparent and held to account. These arent just numbers; lives are at stake.

Hey, come on now, these guys in charge had no idea this was coming. Nobody predicted it.
We didn’t do any trial runs for a pandemic that told us what might be needed.
We reacted as soon as we could.
Now isn’t the time to question, just let it happen and be ok with it.

[TVC15]

Hey, come on now, these guys in charge had no idea this was coming. Nobody predicted it.
We didn’t do any trial runs for a pandemic that told us what might be needed.
We reacted as soon as we could.
Now isn’t the time to question, just let it happen and be ok with it.

Usually agree with you Bordeaux and you are of course correct that nobody could have planned for how serious this was going to be....but
.....the UK did have the benefit of seeing what had happened in other countries and in my view they have made mistakes which have and will cost lives.
Lockdown came too late and testing has not been adequate and also too slow.
PPE has also been a big issue.

For weeks we have watched in horror at Italy, then Spain - and there is now a good chance the UK will end up worse.

On top of that there is 10 years of austerity which even though I accept nobody could have know the extent of this pandemic has meant that our NHS and care systems have struggled to cope....as have emergency services and other areas.

It’s especially hard to be “ok with it” when you have had people close to you die and you are convinced that it could have been prevented.

[Devils_Advocate]

Usually agree with you Bordeaux and you are of course correct that nobody could have planned for how serious this was going to be....but
.....the UK did have the benefit of seeing what had happened in other countries and in my view they have made mistakes which have and will cost lives.
Lockdown came too late and testing has not been adequate and also too slow.
PPE has also been a big issue.

For weeks we have watched in horror at Italy, then Spain - and there is now a good chance the UK will end up worse.

On top of that there is 10 years of austerity which even though I accept nobody could have know the extent of this pandemic has meant that our NHS and care systems have struggled to cope....as have emergency services and other areas.

It’s especially hard to be “ok with it” when you have had people close to you die and you are convinced that it could have been prevented.

[quoonbeatz]

Pretty sure he was being sarcy

[TVC15]

Pretty sure he was being sarcy

Oh ok - I thought I usually agreed with him !!
It’s been a long day !

[dsr]

This model suggests there will be 7 or 8 waves before a vaccine is found https://mobile.twitter.com/globalhlthtw ... 5694437377

I know you're very anxious to spread bad news, but are you sure you've read the article? I think you have seen something that looks bad and rushed to spread the "news" and upset people without properly checking. Feel free to put me right, of course.

But my reading of the article doesn't find the word "vaccine" at all. What that article is talking about is how long before herd immunity is achieved.

If you think about it, why would a vaccine be related to how many outbreaks there have been?

[NottsClaret]

Oh it's here to stay now, that's for sure. I know we've planned for a definite 3 months of WFH, but wouldn't at all be surprised with 6.

Sunak announcing the furlough scheme covering 3 months (plus more if needed) was a pretty big indicator of what they're expecting.

Yeah, I can work from home too, and I could probably do that indefinitely. But mine is a bull**** job. Most are if they can work from home.

But as a country we’ll need those with actual jobs - people who manufacture, build, supply things - to work again. There’s only so many emails you can send about what you’re going to do before somebody somewhere needs to make something.

Maybe we will do it for 6 months. The country will be ruined by then though. How does the NHS get funded with no tax revenue? Is all infrastructure investment cancelled now? If not, how’s it funded? What we’re doing is going to hurt the NHS big time and for years - as well as protect it for the next month or two. Then there’s all the kids’ education we’re disrupting and damaging. These all have huge costs long term.

I think the talk of being ‘at war’ or the ‘battle’ with the virus has got into people’s heads and leave us wanting an ultimate victory. It’s not going to happen. We’re just going to have to find ways of living with it, limiting damage as much as possible and not burning everything we have to the ground in the meantime.

[Bangers&Mash]

Can any country afford 12 weeks in lockdown though? We are going to have to accept a balance at some point.

It’s going to come back if you lockdown for 24 weeks.. for 52 weeks. The idea is to keep numbers below those the NHS can cope with.

As soon as that is achievable - which it pretty much is now - then it’s a case of seeing which levers you can release while keeping the curve below the line. We’re becoming too obsessed with an unachievable goal of getting this virus back in the box and deaths down to zero.

That ship has sailed and now it’s just a case of management until the vaccine arrives.. or everyone has had it.

Congrats NottsClaret, 1000s of replies on this thread and yours is the first sensible one.

Impossible to cure this virus at present so the only plan is to manage it - ensure that number of patients requiring ICU is less than number of beds. Before lockdown happened there needed to be enough of a spread an enough infected to get us to near breaking point (which was probably considered when deciding if Cheltenham should go ahead). Extra beds created to allow this 1st peak to be bigger to get it out of the way.

We are obviously at the point of lockdown where things are looking a little better so the other side needs to be considered (economic and mental health) else the decision would already have been made.

I'd say another 3 weeks is coming and then the beginning of the removal of measures. Kids back to school after May half term, pubs open (with restricted numbers) for late May BH and ensure the economy starts to be lifted through summer. There will be some measures in place for a long time after still (no mass gatherings) and there will be things that will start to open back up but in different ways (sitting alternate seats in the cinema).

The slope to 0 will be a long one, but there wont be a timescale on it, just a plan to keep it dropping and keeping spikes to a minimum (which will probably still happen in local areas)

[paulatky]

I know you're very anxious to spread bad news, but are you sure you've read the article? I think you have seen something that looks bad and rushed to spread the "news" and upset people without properly checking. Feel free to put me right, of course.

But my reading of the article doesn't find the word "vaccine" at all. What that article is talking about is how long before herd immunity is achieved.

If you think about it, why would a vaccine be related to how many outbreaks there have been?

The end to the problem is either a vaccine or herd immunity. The fact that the article talks about 7 or 8 peaks before herd immunity implies they dont think a vaccine will be the solution to come along first. And yes of course I read the article in detail and the short comment I made when I posted the link is correct.

[NottsClaret]

The case of Boris Johnson, if we can keep away from politics for a second, is a good example to use.

A person on the fringes of high risk: Mid fifties, male, carrying a bit of timber.. he gets the virus and becomes seriously ill.

If the NHS is overwhelmed then a patient such as him (ignoring his status for a moment) probably dies. But as we still have capacity, we’re ‘below the line’ - he gets an ICU spot and the right care and makes a full recovery and now carries some immunity.

That’s all we can hope to achieve for now and if we can maintain that, while increasing testing and shielding more vulnerable then we should be able to get through the next 18 months without society collapsing.

[quoonbeatz]

I think the talk of being ‘at war’ or the ‘battle’ with the virus has got into people’s heads and leave us wanting an ultimate victory. It’s not going to happen. We’re just going to have to find ways of living with it, limiting damage as much as possible and not burning everything we have to the ground in the meantime.

Absolutely, I don't know why people think it's going to be eradicated, although it probably comes from the likes of Johnson saying we'll send it packing in 12 weeks.

I don't think lockdown in its current form would go to 6 months, that's just the planning our org did so we're ready for it. As a guide though, the peak in the north west isn't expected for another 1-2 weeks, at which point we'll be what, 6 weeks into social distancing and 5 into 'lockdown'. Stands to reason that it would take another good few weeks after that to start lifting restrictions, hence I wouldn't be surprised if we go to the full 12 weeks.

Interesting take on jobs btw, there's loads of important ones that are being done remotely, and can continue to be as long as the infrastructure is in place. What's interesting is that we might well see a big reset in the way we work, with the realisation that there's not really a need for so much office space, there's less need for commuting into cities which would be excellent for the environment and public health. As ever it's all about striking a balance but there's some real benefits to be realised from this enforced situation.

[jrgbfc]

Not to mention the damage to people's mental health, loneliness, women and children trapped in abusive homes, vital cancer treatments being delayed. The tragedy of the lockdown is that its doing just as much damage as the virus.

[Bfcboyo]

South Korea not all as rosy as expected in the rural areas with the latest images and information filtering out.

[FactualFrank]

This 12 week duration is obviously a moving target, but I can certainly see it going on for longer.

[taio]

Absolutely, I don't know why people think it's going to be eradicated, although it probably comes from the likes of Johnson saying we'll send it packing in 12 weeks.

I don't think lockdown in its current form would go to 6 months, that's just the planning our org did so we're ready for it. As a guide though, the peak in the north west isn't expected for another 1-2 weeks, at which point we'll be what, 6 weeks into social distancing and 5 into 'lockdown'. Stands to reason that it would take another good few weeks after that to start lifting restrictions, hence I wouldn't be surprised if we go to the full 12 weeks.

Interesting take on jobs btw, there's loads of important ones that are being done remotely, and can continue to be as long as the infrastructure is in place. What's interesting is that we might well see a big reset in the way we work, with the realisation that there's not really a need for so much office space, there's less need for commuting into cities which would be excellent for the environment and public health. As ever it's all about striking a balance but there's some real benefits to be realised from this enforced situation.

Agree with most of this. Peak in the region not for a week or two, in fact some Trusts planning on the basis the peak will be into May. And there can be some good that comes out of this - remote working, environment and how health services are accessed. Johnson didn't say we'd send it packing in 12 weeks though - he said the tide would be turned in this period if people follow the measures.

[Spijed]

What will change in the coming weeks is if we get the anti-body testing that will allow many people to go outside in complete safety, knowing they can neither catch it or infect others (as they've had it).

Also, once treatments become available (long before a vaccine) that'll mean survival rates will go up enormously.

[quoonbeatz]

Johnson didn't say we'd send it packing in 12 weeks though - he said the tide would be turned in this period if people follow the measures.

He should probably sue the sun, the mail, the express at al for misrepresenting his words then.

“I think, looking at it all, that we can turn the tide within the next 12 weeks and I’m absolutely confident that we can send coronavirus packing in this country. But only if we all take the steps that we’ve outlined – that is vital.”

That's what he actually said. The headlines all read "boris says we can send the virus packing in 12 weeks."

[FactualFrank]

What will change in the coming weeks is if we get the anti-body testing that will allow many people to go outside in complete safety, knowing they can neither catch it or infect others (as they've had it).

Also, once treatments become available (long before a vaccine) that'll mean survival rates will go up enormously.

I agree. I'm not sure what the latest is with this test, as we were expecting it before now, but they say it's not accurate.

[TVC15]

What will change in the coming weeks is if we get the anti-body testing that will allow many people to go outside in complete safety, knowing they can neither catch it or infect others (as they've had it).

Also, once treatments become available (long before a vaccine) that'll mean survival rates will go up enormously.

By treatment are you referring to more ventilators ?

[Spijed]

By treatment are you referring to more ventilators ?

No, the drugs, possibly quinine and others etc. which will act in a similar way to antibiotics and help your body fight more effectively against the virus.

[taio]

No, the drugs, possibly quinine and others etc. which will act in a similar way to antibiotics and help your body fight more effectively against the virus.

You raise a good point. Drugs that can treat somebody already infected, whereas a vaccine would protect someone from contracting it in the first place.

[Dy1geo]

The case of Boris Johnson, if we can keep away from politics for a second, is a good example to use.

A person on the fringes of high risk: Mid fifties, male, carrying a bit of timber.. he gets the virus and becomes seriously ill.

If the NHS is overwhelmed then a patient such as him (ignoring his status for a moment) probably dies. But as we still have capacity, we’re ‘below the line’ - he gets an ICU spot and the right care and makes a full recovery and now carries some immunity.

That’s all we can hope to achieve for now and if we can maintain that, while increasing testing and shielding more vulnerable then we should be able to get through the next 18 months without society collapsing.

I think that is the plan and has been all along, it was all to do with capacity of the NHS. A mate of mine told me that in January Warrington Hospital has around 20 ITC beds they have now got that up to around 80 although they are short of ventilators which should be addressed in the next few months. The downside is all those waiting for elective surgery will have to wait.

The Govt put things in place to protect people financially and although not perfect are adequate for the vast majority but they can’t do that indefinitely.

Austria are lifting some restrictions tomorrow and I can see us doing that in May for Restaurants, Shops etc and then for pubs etc a month or so later and then I expect this to be monitored for a couple of months to see the impact.

As for sport and large gatherings although at the beginning the risk of large gatherings was deemed to be minimal I think there has been an about turn on this. The anecdotal evidence of the amount of people that caught Covid from the Atalanta v Valencia game is staggering so I think it will be a long time before people get to see sporting events.

In reality it will be down to human behaviour and whether people are prepared to do things go places that may increase their risks of getting Covid before a vaccine is available

[dsr]

The end to the problem is either a vaccine or herd immunity. The fact that the article talks about 7 or 8 peaks before herd immunity implies they dont think a vaccine will be the solution to come along first. And yes of course I read the article in detail and the short comment I made when I posted the link is correct.

No, you're wrong. When someone does a study based on there being no vaccine, it's not the same as saying there will be no vaccine. It's called a "what if" scenario, where they look at what will happen IF something else happens or does not happen.

You said that the model suggests there will be no vaccine until 7 or 8 peaks have happened. You are wrong. The model suggests there will be no herd immunity until 7 or 8 peaks have happened. Herd immunity is not the same as a vaccine.

[FactualFrank]

I think that is the plan and has been all along, it was all to do with capacity of the NHS.

Which is how I think they'll handle the lockdown. They'll relax it slightly for certain people, while keeping below NHS capacity - then see what the numbers show, before relaxing it even more.

[taio]

The case of Boris Johnson, if we can keep away from politics for a second, is a good example to use.

A person on the fringes of high risk: Mid fifties, male, carrying a bit of timber.. he gets the virus and becomes seriously ill.

If the NHS is overwhelmed then a patient such as him (ignoring his status for a moment) probably dies. But as we still have capacity, we’re ‘below the line’ - he gets an ICU spot and the right care and makes a full recovery and now carries some immunity.

That’s all we can hope to achieve for now and if we can maintain that, while increasing testing and shielding more vulnerable then we should be able to get through the next 18 months without society collapsing.

Spot on. Sufficient general and ICU hospital bed capacity has been a key part of the strategy. So far the NHS has coped tremendously well after monumental efforts to create capacity and manage demand on hospital services - A&E attendances and emergency admissions were down by nearly 30% on typical activity recently. We have still to see demand peak in many hospitals but the preparations so far have been very good.

[NottsClaret]

Interesting take on jobs btw, there's loads of important ones that are being done remotely, and can continue to be as long as the infrastructure is in place. What's interesting is that we might well see a big reset in the way we work, with the realisation that there's not really a need for so much office space, there's less need for commuting into cities which would be excellent for the environment and public health. As ever it's all about striking a balance but there's some real benefits to be realised from this enforced situation.

Agree with most of this. If you have a made-up 'service industry' job like I do, and a lot of us do, then the office commute has long been pretty pointless. So much time and money has been wasted on having a fancy HQ for staff to talk nonsense in long non-productive meetings. As you say, there's without doubt going to be positives come from all this also. The noticeable positive impact we can so quickly have on the environment and wildlife is definitely one, certainly something to think about.

I see the Spanish are going back to construction and manufacturing jobs this week, that'll be one to watch for certain.

[TVC15]

Even though we have allowed construction to continue the reality of it is that building suppliers and merchants are either closed or only supplying to businesses who are involved in construction or working on things like hospitals. Unless of course you are called Barnfield in which case they will supply you too in fear of what would happen after the virus has gone !

We need those building merchants / suppliers etc to start opening again when its deemed safe as that will trigger a number of tradesman and work that was halted to get going again.

The pubs opening again soon I’m not sure is a good thing - it could easily lead to binge drinking, lack of social distancing and the police and hospitals having to deal with the mess they do on Friday, Saturday nights around the country.
Restaurants - possibly ok as social distancing can be deployed and with the chefs, front of house etc you have a number of people returning to work. It might also start to slowly allow people to return to socialising and getting their their sanity back !

[paulatky]

No, you're wrong. When someone does a study based on there being no vaccine, it's not the same as saying there will be no vaccine. It's called a "what if" scenario, where they look at what will happen IF something else happens or does not happen.

You said that the model suggests there will be no vaccine until 7 or 8 peaks have happened. You are wrong. The model suggests there will be no herd immunity until 7 or 8 peaks have happened. Herd immunity is not the same as a vaccine.

Lets just agree to disagree!!

[paulatky]

Which is how I think they'll handle the lockdown. They'll relax it slightly for certain people, while keeping below NHS capacity - then see what the numbers show, before relaxing it even more.

The real game changer will be the availability of the antibody test.
Relatively small random samples of 374 people can give estimates within 5% accuracy with 95% confidence levels. If these samples are taken across the country it should be possible to work out how many of the population have had it and recovered. Maybe a large percentage without even realising they had had it.

[Jakubclaret]

Not to mention the damage to people's mental health, loneliness, women and children trapped in abusive homes, vital cancer treatments being delayed. The tragedy of the lockdown is that its doing just as much damage as the virus.

Some men also suffer domestic violence & abuse, it's not just women & children, the mental health 1 you could also argue is debatable, I agree the lockdown will be causing some mental health issues but once raised the mental health issues will resurface for some people going back to work & also the fear of not being able to avoid people thus increasing the chances of contacting the virus, the loneliness & cancer treatments I agree with.

[CombatClaret]

Perhaps put them in quarantine then, or stop the flights.

Well once they get to their destination they will be in quarantine because of the lockdown.
I think it's worth remembering that anyone arriving into the county is subject to the same rules as the rest of us.
At this stage there's probably about as much risk from them catching it from a key worker as they travel home to lockdown as the other way around.

[CombatClaret]

The real game changer will be the availability of the antibody test.
Relatively small random samples of 374 people can give estimates within 5% accuracy with 95% confidence levels. If these samples are taken across the country it should be possible to work out how many of the population have had it and recovered. Maybe a large percentage without even realising they had had it.

I'm trying to find the tweet threat by some modelers that predicted we may see 10+ waves before we reach 'herd immunity' as each period of 'freedom' before a lockdown needed to protect the NHS may only see around 10% of the population contract the virus. Obviously with each one it's gets easier as more people can return to normal.
Sadly I think the tests are a long way off and it may show fewer people than hoped have now got immunity, I dearly hope I'm wrong.

[Jakubclaret]

Even though we have allowed construction to continue the reality of it is that building suppliers and merchants are either closed or only supplying to businesses who are involved in construction or working on things like hospitals. Unless of course you are called Barnfield in which case they will supply you too in fear of what would happen after the virus has gone !

We need those building merchants / suppliers etc to start opening again when its deemed safe as that will trigger a number of tradesman and work that was halted to get going again.

The pubs opening again soon I’m not sure is a good thing - it could easily lead to binge drinking, lack of social distancing and the police and hospitals having to deal with the mess they do on Friday, Saturday nights around the country.
Restaurants - possibly ok as social distancing can be deployed and with the chefs, front of house etc you have a number of people returning to work. It might also start to slowly allow people to return to socialising and getting their their sanity back !

Chefs working in a busy kitchen the social distancing would be a nightmare you'd have plenty of impatient diners, the manager would be make Gordon Ramsay look like Mary Poppins just not practically viable in a busy kitchen environment, the drinking I don't think would lead to binges (odd exceptions) reason I don't think it would is alcohol is still accessible now if people wanted/needed a drink, pubs have generally been on there a**e & in decline for years I don't think you'll see a mass stampede to the pub the majority are equally happy doing what there do at home.

[Spijed]

It may show fewer people than hoped have now got immunity, I dearly hope I'm wrong.

If that's the case then it can't be as infectious as first thought.

[Damo]

He should probably sue the sun, the mail, the express at al for misrepresenting his words then.

“I think, looking at it all, that we can turn the tide within the next 12 weeks and I’m absolutely confident that we can send coronavirus packing in this country. But only if we all take the steps that we’ve outlined – that is vital.”

That's what he actually said. The headlines all read "boris says we can send the virus packing in 12 weeks."

I'd stop reading those newspapers if I were you.
It's no wonder people are pulling you up for posting nonsense if those are your sources

[TVC15]

Chefs working in a busy kitchen the social distancing would be a nightmare you'd have plenty of impatient diners, the manager would be make Gordon Ramsay look like Mary Poppins just not practically viable in a busy kitchen environment, the drinking I don't think would lead to binges (odd exceptions) reason I don't think it would is alcohol is still accessible now if people wanted/needed a drink, pubs have generally been on there a**e & in decline for years I don't think you'll see a mass stampede to the pub the majority are equally happy doing what there do at home.

Certainly not the case in Burnley. Maybe you missed what happened on the night Boris announced pubs would be shutting from midnight. Maybe you haven’t seen what Burnley centre is like on a Friday, Saturday night with many people still out till 8am.
As for A & E maybe it just Burnley (but I doubt it) but it is not correct to say that incidents from drinking and drugs on the busy drinking nights have declined - they have not and the hospital has less resources to deal with it too.

As I said I don’t think Burnley is unique - drinking in local pubs has definitely declined over the last 20 years but many town centres on the main nights of Thursday to Sunday are still full of drinkers and binge drinking and that’s despite alcohol being as cheap as ever to drink from home - youngsters don’t want to do that.

Yes social distancing would be difficult in some kitchens but if the customers are having to socially distance there is less food to serve and less chefs required - so it’s more about gradually getting the hospitality sector back to work because it’s a key sector in this and many countries.

[TVC15]

https://twitter.com/johnrashton47/statu ... 11553?s=12

[Jakubclaret]

He should probably sue the sun, the mail, the express at al for misrepresenting his words then.

“I think, looking at it all, that we can turn the tide within the next 12 weeks and I’m absolutely confident that we can send coronavirus packing in this country. But only if we all take the steps that we’ve outlined – that is vital.”

That's what he actually said. The headlines all read "boris says we can send the virus packing in 12 weeks."

I don't think the paper misquoted him, I think he was so confident (mistakenly) that it would be 3mths & everything would be back to normal, the press advisor's also would have also recommended him not to panic the public to reassure them, lots of gullible people were under the impression that after 3mths the virus wouldn't be a threat because of that statement.

[jrgbfc]

Chefs working in a busy kitchen the social distancing would be a nightmare you'd have plenty of impatient diners, the manager would be make Gordon Ramsay look like Mary Poppins just not practically viable in a busy kitchen environment, the drinking I don't think would lead to binges (odd exceptions) reason I don't think it would is alcohol is still accessible now if people wanted/needed a drink, pubs have generally been on there a**e & in decline for years I don't think you'll see a mass stampede to the pub the majority are equally happy doing what there do at home.

I disagree about the pubs. I think when they finally reopen they'll be really busy. Probably only for a few weeks until the novelty wears off and things go back to how they were before the virus hit.
They might have to reopen with a limited capacity to start with and some changes. Not sure how you adhere to social distancing while queuing at a crowded bar mind.

[taio]

I don't think the paper misquoted him, I think he was so confident (mistakenly) that it would be 3mths & everything would be back to normal, the press advisor's also would have also recommended him not to panic the public to reassure them, lots of gullible people were under the impression that after 3mths the virus wouldn't be a threat because of that statement.

If parts of the media communicated it would end within 12 weeks based on what Johnson said they have misquoted him. It was a message by him to say follow our instructions and the trend will decline within 12 weeks - a call to action if you like to encourage people to take personal responsibility for playing their part which, of course, the majority of people are doing.

[CombatClaret]

If that's the case then it can't be as infectious as first thought.

I'm just saying we shouldn't expect to start testing and find out despite going into lock down half the country has somehow had it, gotten over and now has immunity. I'll be very pleased if that's the case but I think it an optimistic wish rather than reality.

[paulatky]

I'm trying to find the tweet threat by some modelers that predicted we may see 10+ waves before we reach 'herd immunity' as each period of 'freedom' before a lockdown needed to protect the NHS may only see around 10% of the population contract the virus. Obviously with each one it's gets easier as more people can return to normal.
Sadly I think the tests are a long way off and it may show fewer people than hoped have now got immunity, I dearly hope I'm wrong.

I gave a link to that tweet earlier

[Jakubclaret]

Certainly not the case in Burnley. Maybe you missed what happened on the night Boris announced pubs would be shutting from midnight. Maybe you haven’t seen what Burnley centre is like on a Friday, Saturday night with many people still out till 8am.
As for A & E maybe it just Burnley (but I doubt it) but it is not correct to say that incidents from drinking and drugs on the busy drinking nights have declined - they have not and the hospital has less resources to deal with it too.

As I said I don’t think Burnley is unique - drinking in local pubs has definitely declined over the last 20 years but many town centres on the main nights of Thursday to Sunday are still full of drinkers and binge drinking and that’s despite alcohol being as cheap as ever to drink from home - youngsters don’t want to do that.

Yes social distancing would be difficult in some kitchens but if the customers are having to socially distance there is less food to serve and less chefs required - so it’s more about gradually getting the hospitality sector back to work because it’s a key sector in this and many countries.

As a novelty factor initially you will see pub trade pick up again in certain places, town pubs (some) do tend to be busy on a typical Fri/sat night, it's a case of waiting & seeing what happens when it's eventually lifted, I see positives & negatives, i did miss that particular evening as I was working the late shift so getting a last round in wasn't factored into the equation, the drug trade will still be the same I should imagine, people still seem to be snorting & smoking I've noticed & drinking off licence alcohol. It will be completely different for some people not wanting to go into the line of fire & for some people it won't be a problem until it strikes.