Russia Invades

[Vegas Claret]

this is not good, two very reliable sources (so far)

[TsarBomba]

Ukrainian Intelligence:

- Putin furious. Believed the operation would be concluded in 1-4 days.
- war costing Russia 20 billion dollars per day
- only enough rockets for 3-4 more days
- cannot replace munitions quickly enough and may take 3-4 months to replenish stockpiles
- sanctions are cutting off the raw materials needed for rearming, specifically from Germany, Slovenia and Finland.
- Ukraine believe if they can hold on for 10 days, may force Russia to table as they are quickly running out of money.
- Russian SF have been in Kiev since Feb 18.
- Russia plan to start terrorising local population and are preparing provocations to instil panic. This is their trump card.
- hope that Kharkiv will soon fall and begin a domino effect.

[JarrowClaret]

Losses Ukraine's military has imposed on Russia's armed forces at the end of the third day, according to Ukraine's Ministry of Defense.
No update on the cost to Ukraine.

FMjMu6GWUAkaDTT.jpg

Very sobering figures if true I suspect the Ukrainians are trying to be honest but I imagine the reality and what is being announced will have differences.

Very interesting that the Russians don’t seem to be showing any videos at all normally ie in Syria they shared lots.

Russians apparently calling up student Nurses to deal with casualties which is crazy in itself. I am shocked at how they are running out of fuel and food they are using missiles sparingly also so I read I wonder if they will come across an ammo shortage as well!

Found out yesterday that someone I know who settled in Ukraine is fighting to get out as we speak madness.

[TsarBomba]

Anonymous- Russian TV hacked and showing reality of what is happening in Ukraine.

[Bordeauxclaret]

BBC reported earlier than Russian TV were claiming no Russian casualties at all as yet.

[TheFamilyCat]

this is not good, two very reliable sources (so far)

Given Tsar Bomber's post, I wonder if this **** or bust.

[TsarBomba]

EU airspace closed to Russian airlines.

[Vegas Claret]

Anonymous- Russian TV hacked and showing reality of what is happening in Ukraine.

Brilliant !

[TheFamilyCat]

BBC reported earlier than Russian TV were claiming no Russian casualties at all as yet.

Those student nurses must be good.

[Zlatan]

Anonymous- Russian TV hacked and showing reality of what is happening in Ukraine.

If true, the propaganda machine in Russia is vulnerable and gives hope

[bfcjg]

Looking after my grandchildren tonight, gave them an extra hug at bedtime, might be thousands of miles away but people are all the same all over the world, we just want peace those poor children on both sides of the conflict, surely the Russian people will get out in numbers when they see the carnage that Putin will start when he bombs civilian areas. He wants the west to react so he can claim he is defending the motherland, but people can see through him. The Russian orthodox church is very powerful with ordinary Russians, anyone got a link to their opinion ?

[RalphCoatesComb]

Putin has made himself and his Country a pariah throughout the civilised World.

Hopefully, ordinary Joe (Ivan) Public will not allow him to continue for much longer. The whole thing makes me feel sick.

Time for millions within the Free World to show solidarity to the Ukrainians

[TsarBomba]

Heavy push today from Russian forces on following axis:

- Melitopol > Mariupol
- Melitopol > Zaporizhzhia
- Belgorod > Kharkiv
- Ivankiv > Kyiv

[Vegas Claret]

Given Tsar Bomber's post, I wonder if this **** or bust.

It does seem like a bit of a hail mary but the issue Ukraine will find is the Russians trying to cut off the supply route from the west - if they do that then there are no supply routes, utterly vital they keep the West of the Country. I saw a stat an hour or go that said for every Russian soldier in Ukraine there are 110 fighting aged men on the Ukranian side - that's without the women. If the supply routes are kept open and the west can continue the anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons flowing then Russia could have serious issues.

[JarrowClaret]

Anonymous- Russian TV hacked and showing reality of what is happening in Ukraine.

The anonymous hackers are doing some good stuff intercepted Russian communications earlier today. And warned of attacks in some Cities as well.

[Vegas Claret]

The trouble with one- sided, credulity-stretching propaganda like this is that when more balanced and credible information becomes available it is treated with extreme cynicism.

Quite honestly, you sound like Lord Haw Haw.

so far, the Ukranian Intelligent agency has been extraordinarily accurate - like last night when Russia denied having 2 IL76 transport planes shot down and the Ukranians said they had been............Ukranians were correct.

[ksrclaret]

Great to see the thread back, firstly. There are some excellent contributions specifically from TsarBomba.

Ignore those who are already trying it on with insults as this is an excellent source of information.

[JarrowClaret]

It does seem like a bit of a hail mary but the issue Ukraine will find is the Russians trying to cut off the supply route from the west - if they do that then there are no supply routes, utterly vital they keep the West of the Country. I saw a stat an hour or go that said for every Russian soldier in Ukraine there are 110 fighting aged men on the Ukranian side - that's without the women. If the supply routes are kept open and the west can continue the anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons flowing then Russia could have serious issues.

The west of Ukraine is so far away from the Russian aircraft could they land troops to block the supply line. They have the Russian territory in the west is it called transnistria? That they could deploy from I guess but what have they got there that could do it?

[TsarBomba]

Russia dropping parachutists SW of Kyiv.

[tiger76]

So Ukraine are claiming lots of Russian casualties, whereas Russia are claiming zero casualties, in which case it's probably roughly in the middle of both claims.

However if this goes on for another week or so, I can see Putin quickly losing face with the Russian populace, and this might be his ultimate downfall, mind you it's fine getting rid of him, but who'll replace him at the top, that's one of the big unknowns.

[CombatClaret]

Up until now Putin has avoided the optics of Russian attacks on civilians, it would also be counter to his made-up rhetoric of the aim being to oust a government to protect the people.
It also avoided a path that could see intervention on humanitarian grounds.

Seems like he might have run out of patience.

[Vegas Claret]

The west of Ukraine is so far away from the Russian aircraft could they land troops to block the supply line. They have the Russian territory in the west is it called transnistria? That they could deploy from I guess but what have they got there that could do it?

yes that's the issue if they start to troop drop on the West, current map looks like this so as you say, quite a distance at the moment - but still utterly vital for it to remain open

[Vegas Claret]

Russia dropping parachutists SW of Kyiv.

the photo that is floating around of that looks dodgy as, treating that as unconfirmed atm

[Bordeauxclaret]

The big worry for me, if he feels he’s been made to look foolish, what does he do next?


He obviously already is foolish but he won’t know it.

[Vegas Claret]

So Ukraine are claiming lots of Russian casualties, whereas Russia are claiming zero casualties, in which case it's probably roughly in the middle of both claims.

However if this goes on for another week or so, I can see Putin quickly losing face with the Russian populace, and this might be his ultimate downfall, mind you it's fine getting rid of him, but who'll replace him at the top, that's one of the big unknowns.

the bigger issue is once he realises he's done and has nothing to lose he may well decide (because he's clearly unhinged) to just launch nukes and be done with it - it's a very real concern

[TsarBomba]

the photo that is floating around of that looks dodgy as, treating that as unconfirmed atm

Correct.

[tiger76]

the bigger issue is once he realises he's done and has nothing to lose he may well decide (because he's clearly unhinged) to just launch nukes and be done with it - it's a very real concern

He might and that is a concern, but how do you actually just launch a nuke, I'm assuming there's more to the process than simply pushing a button, but I'm happy to be corrected on that.

[jrgbfc]

Guardian reporting that a children's cancer hospital has been hit. Shocking.

[CombatClaret]

So Ukraine are claiming lots of Russian casualties, whereas Russia are claiming zero casualties, in which case it's probably roughly in the middle of both claims.

Given that forces at staging areas were estimated to be up to 1200 tanks and 200,000 personnel at the time of attack.
108 tanks destroyed and 3500 personnel killed.
Not much reason to lie, Russia won't report it internally. No good telling the people you want to join the fight you're winning too easily.

[Bordeauxclaret]

He might and that is a concern, but how do you actually just launch a nuke, I'm assuming there's more to the process than simply pushing a button, but I'm happy to be corrected on that.

Good question.
I’m not sure he’s answerable to anyone though is he?

[Vegas Claret]

He might and that is a concern, but how do you actually just launch a nuke, I'm assuming there's more to the process than simply pushing a button, but I'm happy to be corrected on that.

I honestly don't know when it comes to Russia and a dictator

[NewClaret]

this is not good, two very reliable sources (so far)

Any update on this?

[Vegas Claret]

Guardian reporting that a children's cancer hospital has been hit. Shocking.

this is the problem, the more difficult it's got the more reckless the Russians have been. Some of the things I've read and seen I would never report on here, truly horrific and barbaric

[tarkys_ears]

He won't launch nukes.

I suspect his generals are embarrassed and furious. If they keep targeting civilians then NATO will start policing the air.

As for China, some see this as their opportunity to invade Taiwan. I don't think so. They'll see it as an opportunity to buy half of Russia for £100.

Great news from the EU decision to close airspace and not allow any aircraft parts of servicing, insurance to a mainly Airbus fleet.

Not long now until the oligarchs can't spend money and the public are queuing 6 hours for a load of bread - they won't accept that.

Let's hope Kyiv stands strong tonight and these sanctions take serious hold before long.

Actually, let's hope someone takes out Putin before long.

[TsarBomba]

yes that's the issue if they start to troop drop on the West, current map looks like this so as you say, quite a distance at the moment - but still utterly vital for it to remain open

Hadn’t seen a current map for today- thanks.

However, some Russian troop movements documented today are way ahead of the areas on that map under Russian control. Certainly in the North/North East, there’s a consensus that the Russians are really pushing hard, but in obvious danger of over extending supply lines.

[JarrowClaret]

yes that's the issue if they start to troop drop on the West, current map looks like this so as you say, quite a distance at the moment - but still utterly vital for it to remain open

Ha ha I have been trying to get that graphic on or versions of it for days no idea how to do it ha ha.

I think reading OSint accounts it is fairly accurate just shows how slow the Russian advance has been apart from the NW of Kyiv and to the South from Crimea. From what I can gather certainly Crimea a lot of that advance was allowed basically it was all open dead ground so perfect for armour, Aircraft and attack Helis.

[Vegas Claret]

Any update on this?

not as yet, tweets were also put out from high ranking Ukranians - it's expected

NATO E3 up near Moldovo will no doubt be looking

[tiger76]

Good question.
I’m not sure he’s answerable to anyone though is he?

No that's the problem with megalomaniac's they rarely listen to any voices of reason, hopefully there is still some sensible heads within The Kremlin though that would realise the absurdity of such action, but given how Putin has surrounded himself with yes men and women that might be a forlorn hope.

[JarrowClaret]

Hadn’t seen a current map for today- thanks.

However, some Russian troop movements documented today are way ahead of the areas on that map under Russian control. Certainly in the North/North East, there’s a consensus that the Russians are really pushing hard, but in obvious danger of over extending supply lines.

If you believe everything you read they have already gone beyond over extending they have broken them. They are literally asking Ukrainians for food and fuel I saw a video of one telling the Russians he would tow him back to Russia if he likes.

They are doing some good stuff the Ukrainians allowing POWs to phone home discussing repatriation of dead Russians with the UN as well.

[Vegas Claret]

Hadn’t seen a current map for today- thanks.

However, some Russian troop movements documented today are way ahead of the areas on that map under Russian control. Certainly in the North/North East, there’s a consensus that the Russians are really pushing hard, but in obvious danger of over extending supply lines.

yeah as soon as someone updates it it's effectively out of date

It sounds like they are running seriously low on a lot of things which you would think astonishing........but the propaganda out of Russia is next level, people far smarter than me with far greater knowledge have said they don't have half the things they say they do

[CombatClaret]

the bigger issue is once he realises he's done and has nothing to lose he may well decide (because he's clearly unhinged) to just launch nukes and be done with it - it's a very real concern

I don't think he's gone that mad. Remember he's still the invader and is 'up' in terms of land.

He could just give up on Kiev and the idea of a total puppet state, you'd think based on what we've seen it would face constant uprising without heavy occupation.
Pull back to the Dnieper River and he's got half a country with a clearly defined/defensible border plus 2/3rd of the Black Sea coastline he so clearly wants.

Somewhat reminiscent of the expansion under Catherine the Great and the old imperial/soviet borders Putin dreams of.

new_russia_on_territory_of_ukraine.jpg (149.73 KiB) Viewed 2190 times

[Claret Alfie]

If Ukraine stand tall and Russia do pull out (like Putin’s dad should have done) Is there any chance the international court get Putin for war crimes?

[TsarBomba]

EU and US agree to remove some Russian banks from Swift.

Also going to take measures to stop Russian Central Bank from deploying its international reserve to undermine sanctions.

[Vegas Claret]

I don't think he's gone that mad. Remember he's still the invader and is 'up' in terms of land.

He could just give up on Kiev and the idea of a total puppet state, you'd think based on what we've seen it would face constant uprising without heavy occupation.
Pull back to the Dnieper River and he's got half a country with a clearly defined/defensible border plus 2/3rd of the Black Sea coastline he so clearly wants.

Somewhat reminiscent of the expansion under Catherine the Great and the old imperial/soviet borders Putin dreams of.
new_russia_on_territory_of_ukraine.jpg

and the experts have all said that Russia don't have the finance, man power or machinery to have a drawn out occupation - especially with the rest constantly re-supplying the Ukrainians - one of the effects of the sanctions on Russia is they can not buy weaponry from the west (which they do) nor supplies to make/fix their current inventory

[Vegas Claret]

YES! Ursula von Der Leyen announces disconnecting Russian banks from SWIFT payment system !!!!!!!! HUGE

[NewClaret]

YES! Ursula von Der Leyen announces disconnecting Russian banks from SWIFT payment system !!!!!!!! HUGE

Brilliant. About time too.

[Vegas Claret]

If Ukraine stand tall and Russia do pull out (like Putin’s dad should have done) Is there any chance the international court get Putin for war crimes?

if there is any sign of Russia pulling out I'd invite every single country that wanted to join NATO to join NATO. Putin has made a colossal error in judgement imho

[TsarBomba]

Heavy Russian shelling of residential areas in Kharkiv tonight.

[Conroysleftfoot]

Just watching BBC news, women spending their Saturday making Molotov cocktails.
Got to admire these people.

[tiger76]

If Ukraine stand tall and Russia do pull out (like Putin’s dad should have done) Is there any chance the international court get Putin for war crimes?

The only way I can see that scenario happening is if Putin is overthrown by either his generals or the Russian people, as happened with Slobodan Milosevic in the 1990's, but it's doubtful he could be held personally responsible, even though he quite possibly should be.

The whole thing is a tragedy, and as always it's the innocent civilians who cop the brunt of the indiscriminate violence, so much for only targeting military sites.