Russia Invades

[Spiral]

The more likely outcome is that convoy bit by bit starts filtering in and around the capital once fueled.

There's a saying, a bit of a meme, that you don't invade Russia in the winter. It comes from the two most famous examples of armies being destroyed by their ambitions to take Russia: Hitler's and Napoleon's. Both suffered during the Russian winter, and while the weather no doubt affected the ability of their armies to fight and hold territory, the closer reading of history is that they simply over-stretched. Napoleon wasn't forced to withdraw his army from Russia solely because of the winter conditions (though that did play a role), it's because his supply lines were in shambles. Hitler ignored his generals and chose to fight on too many fronts. So it isn't necessarily the conditions, but the state of supply lines which determine an army's ability to fight. And by all accounts THIS is precisely what the Ukrainians are focusing on. Whether that's the case in the north where this convoy is, I can't say, but it's the strategy the Ukrainians appear to have adopted. When you add the fact the Belarusians are more reluctant to join the war than Putin probably expected, that convoy is stranded and going nowhere. Also remember that a convoy only moves as fast as the vehicles at its head. If the Ukrainians can in perpetuity prevent the first few kilometres from being supplied, it will remain a static living monument to awful military planning and little else. The roads are so narrow and the banks to the sides so muddy that those vehicles struggle even to clear a path though the middle like you would for an ambulance on a road here in England, and by all accounts the Russian air force is being denied presence by the Ukrainians, making supply by air impossible.

[HahaYeah]

What Russia Wants From Its Invasion of Ukraine—and Why Zelensky Is Evil

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vdiEABLFoo&t=214s

[NewClaret]

I can see your points Spiral. Those guys shooting themselves in the foot may be strategically advantageous. I do worry they’ll sort it out and Ukraine will regret not blowing them to pieces while they had the chance though.

On the point of arming Ukraine; great if it did play out like that, and the thought of Putin leaving their ‘army’ stronger than he found it whilst weakening their own is pretty appealing, but I’d be pretty worried about civilians taking charge of military equipment. On balance would much rather they blow it all to smithereens.

[elwaclaret]

This is a long one… analysis of the Russia by a serving FSB analyst, Igor Sushko

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1 ... 99937?s=21

[SalouClaret]

What Russia Wants From Its Invasion of Ukraine—and Why Zelensky Is Evil

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vdiEABLFoo&t=214s

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status ... 2919006208

Abandoned BMD-2s, essentially a whole companys worth

I have absolutely no idea what the Russians are playing at, but this is not how a well organised and trained army operates

[elwaclaret]

But well worth reading… he hasn’t prepared for sanctions because no one knew in the FSB that the plan for Ukraine wasn’t just a regular analysis they carry out. Russia will be verging on famine by June, overworked and frightened and horrified by what is happening. He wants the leadership to fall…

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1 ... 78819?s=21

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1 ... 5750206465

Huge supply convoy that is essentially just scrap metal, location unknown

[Lancasterclaret]

Analysis of that convoy

https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/67331.html

[Lancasterclaret]

Look how badly Russian logistics are screwed?

They are shipping civilian cars and trucks to the front

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1 ... 3504910337

[elwaclaret]

Look how badly Russian logistics are screwed?

They are shipping civilian cars and trucks to the front

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1 ... 3504910337

Posted the link around teatime.

[elwaclaret]

Sushko… even if we take Ukraine (which I doubt) it would take 500,000 to Marshall it, not including supplies.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1 ... 88226?s=21

[elwaclaret]

There is no command and control of what’s going on the FSB has no contact with Russian commanders in the Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1 ... 56448?s=21

[elwaclaret]

Conditional end of campaign was set for June, now by June Russia will be in chaos, and suffering famine conditions.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1 ... 01601?s=21

[NewClaret]

Also remember that a convoy only moves as fast as the vehicles at its head. If the Ukrainians can in perpetuity prevent the first few kilometres from being supplied, it will remain a static living monument to awful military planning and little else. The roads are so narrow and the banks to the sides so muddy that those vehicles struggle even to clear a path though the middle like you would for an ambulance on a road here in England, and by all accounts the Russian air force is being denied presence by the Ukrainians, making supply by air impossible.

I’d love to know what, if anything, they’re doing to keep the front few km’s from moving. Or if it’s just their own incompetence?

Will also be interesting to see if Ukraine have done anything up stream to prevent them getting further - landslides, road blocks, land mines, general sabotage, etc.

[BERNIEU]

Think one or two may be over thinking the convoy - it is sitting there like a great big lump of cheese. Suggestions it’s commander was taken out by a Ukrainian sniper before they got any orders and no attempt to move it suggests the Russians are hoping to sucker some attempt from the resistance.

Genuine question: What do you expect will happen? Do you think things will calm? I just don't think this is going to end up like WW3. I think he's taken on more than he can chew.

[Bin Ont Turf]

Funny

https://twitter.com/evanbmontgomery/sta ... ddTFlXpTlw

[elwaclaret]

Russian Pope more frightened of Putin than God. The West want to destroy Russia because they don’t allow Gay Pride marches. Strange I’d have been astonished two weeks ago, today it seems typical of Fascist history.

https://twitter.com/mjluxmoore/status/1 ... 64641?s=21

[Lancasterclaret]

I’d love to know what, if anything, they’re doing to keep the front few km’s from moving. Or if it’s just their own incompetence?

Will also be interesting to see if Ukraine have done anything up stream to prevent them getting further - landslides, road blocks, land mines, general sabotage, etc.

The link I've posted sums it up

Not only are they out of fuel and battery power, but the area around the roads have been flooded by the Ukrainians, so they are as stuck as we are with our 4-4-2

[elwaclaret]

Genuine question: What do you expect will happen? Do you think things will calm? I just don't think this is going to end up like WW3. I think he's taken on more than he can chew.

If you want a better view of Russia’s chaos, I’d check out my FSB insider (its their department of logistics)… Russia has no resources to go to war… they did what they always do, tell their bosses what they wanted to hear… it was a regular request, no one took seriously and they are tired, hungry and worried because no-one saved or stocked up, because they told no one not even their own logistics it was happening.

My take is the best case scenario is looking increasingly likely; there is a lot of very annoyed people - people that matter that are increasingly raising their voices against Putin. Will he hit out, defiantly and Ukraine will bare the brunt. But on the bright side with the leadership increasingly isolated (looking like for their own protection), the army get less likely to fire Nukes on Putin’s order by the day.

[Lowbankclaret]

Posted the link around teatime.

Don’t the Russians know the most reliable utility trucks are Toyotas.

[JarrowClaret]

Americans have suggested that putin suspects that his defence minister is to form a coupe interesting development.

The optimum word is putin suspects

[Colburn_Claret]

Genuine question: What do you expect will happen? Do you think things will calm? I just don't think this is going to end up like WW3. I think he's taken on more than he can chew.

I think most of us think he's taken on more than he can chew.
Any normal person would see the writing on the wall and quit/pull out, but Putin isn't normal. I think he would rather Russia and half of Europe be blown to smithereens than admit defeat. It needs the people, or his Generals, to turn against him to end this. It's why the sanctions are our only hope, because he cares as little about Russian losses as he does about Ukrainian. If he isn't mad, he's certainly not a full shilling.

[ŽižkovClaret]

Don’t the Russians know the most reliable utility trucks are Toyotas.

I had a mate once who got offered the job of managing a Mitsubishi dealership in Kabul. He offered me the assistant role, and i said nah yer alright

Apparently the Mitsy dealer was unofficial neutral ground as everyone needed them at one time or another ha

[elwaclaret]

Regarding the reason everything’s stopping read the Russian logistics guy FSB, he is not a happy Russian :-

There is no command and control of what’s going on the FSB has no contact with Russian commanders in the Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1 ... 56448?s=21

[JarrowClaret]

If you want a better view of Russia’s chaos, I’d check out my FSB insider (its their department of logistics)… Russia has no resources to go to war… they did what they always do, tell their bosses what they wanted to hear… it was a regular request, no one took seriously and they are tired, hungry and worried because no-one saved or stocked up, because they told no one not even their own logistics it was happening.

My take is the best case scenario is looking increasingly likely; there is a lot of very annoyed people - people that matter that are increasingly raising their voices against Putin. Will he hit out, defiantly and Ukraine will bare the brunt. But on the bright side with the leadership increasingly isolated (looking like for their own protection), the army get less likely to fire Nukes on Putin’s order by the day.

I posted it earlier Elwa he isn’t the insider he translated it to English I think but there is definitely a lot to concern the Russians contained in it clearly we have no idea if it is genuine or not seems it and well worth a read.

[elwaclaret]

Over 3,000 protestors arrested on Sunday in Russia according to the latest New York Times post

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1500 ... 67496?s=21

[elwaclaret]

Times reporter in Moscow thinks everyone in power is terrified of Putin’s torture cells, making it unlikely they will discuss takeover.

https://twitter.com/thetimes/status/149 ... 09895?s=21

[NewClaret]

The link I've posted sums it up

Not only are they out of fuel and battery power, but the area around the roads have been flooded by the Ukrainians, so they are as stuck as we are with our 4-4-2

Crikey, they are stuck then

What difference does the flooding make? The mud? Don’t recall reading that thread (there’s been a lot tbf).

[elwaclaret]

I posted it earlier Elwa he isn’t the insider he translated it to English I think but there is definitely a lot to concern the Russians contained in it clearly we have no idea if it is genuine or not seems it and well worth a read.

Sorry just to add Jarrow - I followed the link of a Military History Lecturer with more letters after his name than in it… I think we can assume its a good source.

[Lowbankclaret]

I had a mate once who got offered the job of managing a Mitsubishi dealership in Kabul. He offered me the assistant role, and i said nah yer alright

Apparently the Mitsy dealer was unofficial neutral ground as everyone needed them at one time or another ha

To be fair they are just as good!

[elwaclaret]

Crikey, they are stuck then

What difference does the flooding make? The mud? Don’t recall reading that thread (there’s been a lot tbf).

Best of all, Ukraine is so hush-hush Russians own logistics have little idea of what is happening on the ground and so have no chance of supplying, by the sound of it.

[elwaclaret]

Johnson promises to work with allies supplying weapons to Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1500 ... 87239?s=21

[elwaclaret]

More analysis of the CGI ‘meeting’ of that posted here yesterday… this time someone has spotted Putin’s real location reflected in a close up of his decanter… a big empty office.

https://twitter.com/piperdewn/status/15 ... 95681?s=21

[NewClaret]

https://twitter.com/Archer83Able/status ... 2919006208

Abandoned BMD-2s, essentially a whole companys worth

I have absolutely no idea what the Russians are playing at, but this is not how a well organised and trained army operates

That’s unbelievable. Presumably either they were instructed to leave their tanks to fight somewhere else, or perhaps just agreed they’d scarper? Best to put some missiles through those tanks!

That one posted before looked to me like they were blowing up abandoned tanks.

[elwaclaret]

500lb bombs dropped on residential area. One that failed to explode…

https://twitter.com/piperdewn/status/15 ... 95681?s=21

[elwaclaret]

That’s unbelievable. Presumably either they were instructed to leave their tanks to fight somewhere else, or perhaps just agreed they’d scarper? Best to put some missiles through those tanks!

That one posted before looked to me like they were blowing up abandoned tanks.

The explanation is posted on the FSB posts above… the FSB are being told nothing.

[Lowbankclaret]

Crikey, they are stuck then

What difference does the flooding make? The mud? Don’t recall reading that thread (there’s been a lot tbf).

From everything I have read.

From a British soldier in a video fighting for Ukraine.

The front of the column moves it gets hit from the front by javelin missiles. Ukraine has soldiers hitting any resupply attempts using the same missiles.
The column cannot leave the road as it gets stuck in the mud.

[elwaclaret]

Kazakhstan turns out if force to demonstrate in favour of Ukraine

https://twitter.com/militaryhistori/sta ... 25484?s=21

[elwaclaret]

Netflix pulls plug on Russia

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1500 ... 95339?s=21

[dermotdermot]

What Russia Wants From Its Invasion of Ukraine—and Why Zelensky Is Evil

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1vdiEABLFoo&t=214s

Is there any credence to this? No one has
made a comment.

[elwaclaret]

Reuters reporting figures far in excess of New York Times - (Trust Reuters news agency) 4,300 detained for protesting.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1500 ... 88872?s=21

[elwaclaret]

Another of todays St Petersburg anti-war marchers today

https://twitter.com/mikegalsworthy/stat ... 29063?s=21

[elwaclaret]

US diplomatically leans on the Warcrimes commission…

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1500 ... 97345?s=21

[elwaclaret]

Russia cutting of the global internet in an attempt to stop news leakage into Russia.

https://twitter.com/nigroeneveld/status ... 50530?s=21

[Devils_Advocate]

Is there any credence to this? No one has
made a comment.

Nope if you look the guy up on Twitter you can see that he's a Russian asset spreading propaganda mainly aimed at attacking Zalensky.

Used to have a lot of awful stuff on his channel (things like how to train your women to be your slave) but he's binned it all to try and look like a credible source on the Russian invasion.

I think Salou's response to the post sums it up perfectly

[RingoMcCartney]

Those proud Ukrainians are putting up one hell of a fight.

Fair play and respect to them.


Pound for pound, patriotism is no match against tyranny.

[Vegas Claret]

Americans have suggested that putin suspects that his defence minister is to form a coupe interesting development.

The optimum word is putin suspects

that'll just make him more paranoid !

[NewClaret]

Russia cutting of the global internet in an attempt to stop news leakage into Russia.

https://twitter.com/nigroeneveld/status ... 50530?s=21

Imagine living in Russia right now - disconnected from the flab all internet, social media blocked, cards not working…

The older Russians may accept it but I very much doubt the young will - they’ll be off.

[NewClaret]

that'll just make him more paranoid !

Think that’s the plan