Russia Invades

[claret2018]

Fuel will be £2 a litre and I was just quoted £450 per month to fix my gas and electric for 2 years. Add in the NI rise next month and the longer this war goes on the worse it’s going to be for a lot of people.

[Lowbankclaret]

What I find concerning today is,
US has put further sanctions on.
We have announced the delivery of Starstreak.

Putin has been quiet for two days. That concerns me slightly.

[elwaclaret]

U.S. Stocks bounce back after several days of loses due to uncertainty over Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1501 ... 54434?s=21

[elwaclaret]

Fuel will be £2 a litre and I was just quoted £450 per month to fix my gas and electric for 2 years. Add in the NI rise next month and the longer this war goes on the worse it’s going to be for a lot of people.

Not least the Ukrainians, least we can do is suck it up in good grace.

[elwaclaret]

Worsley and Eccles MP is at this moment asking for help for most vulnerable through the crisis…

https://twitter.com/bbcnwt/status/15015 ... 12160?s=21

[BERNIEU]

Fuel will be £2 a litre and I was just quoted £450 per month to fix my gas and electric for 2 years. Add in the NI rise next month and the longer this war goes on the worse it’s going to be for a lot of people.

£450 a month? What are you currently paying?

You'd think the government would have done 1 of 2 things: Remove VAT from energy bills or freeze the National Insurance and not raise it. But nooooo, instead, they know how much fuel is rising yet they thought, "I know - let's also raise National Insurance as well!"

[elwaclaret]

£450 a month? What are you currently paying?

You'd think the government would have done 1 of 2 things: Remove VAT from energy bills or freeze the National Insurance and not raise it. But nooooo, instead, they know how much fuel is rising yet they thought, "I know - let's also raise National Insurance as well!"

Where do you think the money will come from? The country has not had time to recover from the Billions spent and lost due to COVID. With the squeeze against dirty money and investigations left right and centre over awards of contracts given out - Britain has taken its biggest hit since WW2 (and this is not a party political post).

[Billy Balfour]

Nice idea, but not very likely.

They'll have to if it hits £1.90 litre. It would be political suicide not to do so.

[BERNIEU]

and this is not a party political post.

Quite true, so we'll leave it there. Back to the thread in hand.

[elwaclaret]

They'll have to if it hits £1.90 litre. It would be political suicide not to do so.

No its a none political move, probably bourn of necessity - I expect all the parties to line up behind whatever needs to be done, although as we can see Parliament is attempting to mitigate impact for those who will face difficult choices.

[Claretincraven]

OTHER NEWS: More on Shackleton discovery

https://twitter.com/erelija/status/1501 ... 59873?s=21

Completely off topic but has anyone tried the Shackleton Malt Whiskey? Based on the blend Shackleton took with him, they found 11 bottles under the base camp and copied it. Has been on offer at Tesco at £18 this last week. Salted a couple of bottles away!

[claret2018]

£450 a month? What are you currently paying?

You'd think the government would have done 1 of 2 things: Remove VAT from energy bills or freeze the National Insurance and not raise it. But nooooo, instead, they know how much fuel is rising yet they thought, "I know - let's also raise National Insurance as well!"

£110 currently

[BERNIEU]

They'll have to if it hits £1.90 litre. It would be political suicide not to do so.

My car packed in, in May of 2019. I was going to get another early 2020 until Covid hit. Now I'm wondering whether I'm best just sticking with walking, cycling and public transport. It comes across to me that the government are trying to push people into buying electric cars.

[claret2018]

Not least the Ukrainians, least we can do is suck it up in good grace.

Agree completely, but I think a lot won’t be able to afford the huge hit to household incomes that’s coming this year, especially the longer this conflict drags on.

[AlargeClaret]

What I find concerning today is,
US has put further sanctions on.
We have announced the delivery of Starstreak.

Putin has been quiet for two days. That concerns me slightly.

Is this true re: starstreak ? Very serious kit indeed ,though these are not “ plug n play “ like a stinger . You’d need a lot of trained up soldiers but boy do these beauties lock on .

Re: US sanctions , they need neither gas or oil , though corporate America totally pulling its ops may cause problems after a couple of months

[elwaclaret]

Agree completely, but I think a lot won’t be able to afford the huge hit to household incomes that’s coming this year, especially the longer this conflict drags on.

See posts just above for mitigation… already being discussed in Parliament.

CAN WE PLEASE MOVE ON NOW.

[elwaclaret]

Perhaps distancing themselves from being accused of driving the war U.S. (by Russia), reject Poland’s plan over MIG transfer

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1501 ... 63623?s=21

[KateR]

Is this true re: starstreak ? Very serious kit indeed ,though these are not “ plug n play “ like a stinger . You’d need a lot of trained up soldiers but boy do these beauties lock on .

Re: US sanctions , they need neither gas or oil , though corporate America totally pulling its ops may cause problems after a couple of months

Enter Venezuela, they will ramp up there oil, plus some gas, US will keep their reserves as much as possible, Fracking will ramp up as much as possible, ME asked to ramp up but so far as OPEC they have refused, hence Venezuela.

[Lowbankclaret]

Is this true re: starstreak ? Very serious kit indeed ,though these are not “ plug n play “ like a stinger . You’d need a lot of trained up soldiers but boy do these beauties lock on .

Re: US sanctions , they need neither gas or oil , though corporate America totally pulling its ops may cause problems after a couple of months

Defence Secretary announced in the Commons today we would supply some in the coming days.

[Vegas Claret]

Perhaps distancing themselves from being accused of driving the war U.S. (by Russia), reject Poland’s plan over MIG transfer

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1501 ... 63623?s=21

do you not find the way this "Story" is being delivered a little odd ? Why would Poland hold a press conference to announce it for it to then be denied by America ? They are making such a song and dance about it and I don't believe an of it, doubt Putin does either.

We have an AFB 1 hour or so north of me (Creech), doesn't get much traffic at all because it is a drone base, in the last 10 days there has been 1 C5 Galaxy and 3 x C17 .............they aren't picking up fresh air.

[Colburn_Claret]

Hopefully it would only come to that if the West was stupid enough to give in to Zelensky and implement a no fly zone. I don’t think that they will but am getting increasingly agitated by his demands. The day before he made this so called Churhillian speech he was referring to NATO as being weak for not capitulating to his requests.

I think you need to sit down and imagine how we would feel, if we were under attack, and someone was trying to pinch a quarter of our country, under the pretext of a tissue of lies.
Would we be stupid for asking our friends, neighbours, allies to aid us. Should we just capitulate to aggression, just to spare their blushes.

Zelensky has done a hell of a job for his people, under circumstances you obviously don't appreciate, or you wouldn't make such a statement.

[Vegas Claret]

sometimes I feel Zelensky is putting on a well orchestrated show, almost as if he is being asked/told what to say by others. His messaging has been very irratic over the last week where previously it wasn't, like it's meant to confuse and show disharmony within NATO etc.

[Lancasterclaret]

sometimes I feel Zelensky is putting on a well orchestrated show, almost as if he is being asked/told what to say by others. His messaging has been very irratic over the last week where previously it wasn't, like it's meant to confuse and show disharmony within NATO etc.

I think its nothing more than lack of sleep, worry and the fact he's responsible for the fate of his country

He knows that his mere presence in the Western media is having a huge positive effect for his country, and he's playing on that as much as he can

And there are divisions in NATO, those bordering Ukraine and Russia are far more worried about Russia intentions and are willing to go far further to support Ukraine

I think the UK is on the side of the more militant side of the alliance, and I suspect that side of NATO will ramp up weapon supplies and sanctions

[elwaclaret]

do you not find the way this "Story" is being delivered a little odd ? Why would Poland hold a press conference to announce it for it to then be denied by America ? They are making such a song and dance about it and I don't believe an of it, doubt Putin does either.

We have an AFB 1 hour or so north of me (Creech), doesn't get much traffic at all because it is a drone base, in the last 10 days there has been 1 C5 Galaxy and 3 x C17 .............they aren't picking up fresh air.

Me either, unless there are better planes they could substitute. Think this is designed to Reach Putin, be extremely surprised id U.S. was really denying equipment, more likely just their (unnecessary) involvement as intermediaries.

[Colburn_Claret]

Just a heads up. Try and get the fuel in while you can because prices are going to be in the high 180s minimum by next week. We have already seen over 2 pound a litre on some motorway sites today.

It makes sense, for anyone who can to start car pools, or car sharing. Every little will help.

[BERNIEU]

It makes sense, for anyone who can to start car pools, or car sharing. Every little will help.

Just make sure James Corden isn't sharing.

[Colburn_Claret]

CNN reporting that Russians have cut the power supply to Chernobyl and the spent nuclear fuel is no longer cooled. A meltdown will occur in 48 hours if nothing is done. Apparently the source was from the Ukraine officials who are very worried.

I maybe wrong, but looking at a map the other day it looked like Chernobyl is close to the Belarusian border. If I'm right, I don't think they'd be best pleased either.

[Colburn_Claret]

£450 a month? What are you currently paying?

You'd think the government would have done 1 of 2 things: Remove VAT from energy bills or freeze the National Insurance and not raise it. But nooooo, instead, they know how much fuel is rising yet they thought, "I know - let's also raise National Insurance as well!"

They would be better off putting a tax on the suppliers.
The fuel you are buying today was bought, and processed 2 months ago, at 2 months ago prices. They always put prices up instantly, but take 2 months to drop it after the cost of a barrel drops back to normal. Ripping off sods.

[Lowbankclaret]

sometimes I feel Zelensky is putting on a well orchestrated show, almost as if he is being asked/told what to say by others. His messaging has been very irratic over the last week where previously it wasn't, like it's meant to confuse and show disharmony within NATO etc.

Friend of mine who worked for the NHS, told me some time ago. 3 days without sleep can lead to mental health issues, he probably hasn’t had much sleep for 13 days.

[elwaclaret]

I maybe wrong, but looking at a map the other day it looked like Chernobyl is close to the Belarusian border. If I'm right, I don't think they'd be best pleased either.

The usual practice is for a ‘neutral’ team to maintain Nuclear sites that could pose threats - there has been much discussion over who will police power stations, they reached agreement over the one that was attacked; I expect much the same will be happening with Chernobyl - the last thing Russia needs is that blowing towards their cities.

[Vegas Claret]

Friend of mine who worked for the NHS, told me some time ago. 3 days without sleep can lead to mental health issues, he probably hasn’t had much sleep for 13 days.

yeah Lancaster made a similar point, but when you put his delivery with the whole Polish Mig "fiasco" I'm just wondering if it's an orchestrated attempt to seed confusion and doubt - I could well be completely over thinking it of course !

[Lowbankclaret]

yeah Lancaster made a similar point, but when you put his delivery with the whole Polish Mig "fiasco" I'm just wondering if it's an orchestrated attempt to seed confusion and doubt - I could well be completely over thinking it of course !

You could be right, I just think it’s probably more due to a lack of sleep. At the start he spoke very well, he now seems to jump a bout a bit and mis messages are not so controlled.

[Vegas Claret]

Mariupol maternity hospital destroyed https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/ ... Q7rSeTrplg

Dan Rivers reporting it too

[elwaclaret]

Reuters, U.S. House sitting today will be looking for agreement over $1.5T dollar funding deal to cover domestic issues and Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1501 ... 58305?s=21

[Lancasterclaret]

One thing that has to be done is to make sure that Ukraine can rebuild

Its almost certainly a war aim of Russia now to destroy as much of it as possible, and the Western world has to make sure there are funds and people available to rebuild it

[gandhisflipflop]

Got £1.58 at Asda on Monday

We are going to look at those prices with sighs in the coming weeks I think

Absolutely. Texaco in Padiham was already 176.9 this morning. A site in a few places today I’m told are 189.0 so I’m trying to be modest in those predictions. If you are getting fuel in the 150s now, it’s because the garage hasn’t yet bought in new stock, and when they do the prices will soar.

[elwaclaret]

Reading between the lines Germany was uncomfortable about the Polish Mig’s been transferred to U.S. bases in Germany without going through NATO channels.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1501 ... 68098?s=21

[elwaclaret]

OTHRE NEWS: Reuters now confirming ‘Endurance’ found

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1501 ... 51011?s=21

[elwaclaret]

New York Times reporting a major increases in Oligarch sanction list expected from Europe, along with the closure of Crypto loopholes

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1501 ... 93540?s=21

[elwaclaret]

Poland seem to be confirming that NATO must be involved in the plane transfer

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1501 ... 09571?s=21

[elwaclaret]

Ukrainian’s are barricading Odessa’s landmarks in an attempt to prevent Russian missiles destroying them.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... 77568?s=21

[barba]

You'd think the government would have done 1 of 2 things: Remove VAT from energy bills or freeze the National Insurance and not raise it. But nooooo, instead, they know how much fuel is rising yet they thought, "I know - let's also raise National Insurance as well!"

I've just watched a market webinar with JP Morgan and they think the NI rise will go ahead and there won't be any VAT cuts on energy costs. The reason being is that once they reduce tax / halt increases it would be nearly impossible for them to put them back on. What they expect is more Government direct help for low / middle income earners as we have seen in the £150 council tax rebate recently announced.

[elwaclaret]

Another standoff as unarmed Ukrainian civilians block a Russian troop advance “Ukrainians are incredible” Gary Linacre comments as he retweets.

https://twitter.com/garylineker/status/ ... 17444?s=21

[elwaclaret]

Putin signs another finance law to try to stabilise Russia

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1501 ... 53992?s=21

[brunlea99]

This is a summary by an ex colleague of mine from my Army days. Ex Intelligence Corps who has been working as a consultant for a number of years. He posted this on he FB page.

"All else being equal and assuming that the Russians don’t suddenly decide to declare a unilateral end to operations and simply squat, sullenly, on those parts of Ukraine they’ve occupied, but, rather, carry grimly on, eventually, they’ll no doubt be able to eliminate or at least sufficiently attrite the Ukrainian Armed Forces and occupy at least some urban centres. It’ll cost them more casualties, more destroyed (and practically irreplaceable) high tech platforms, land and air alike and further demoralise an already not notably enthusiastic land force.
Russian combat power has been inexorably declining since the start of the war in Ukraine. The Russians deployed the bulk of their combat-ready and high-technology forces in the action and these are largely ineffective, or will be soon, through both hostile action and mechanical attrition. By the time they ‘win’, they’ll effectively be back in the 1980s, with boots on the ground toting automatic rifles and last-generation vehicles, nowhere near as fragile as their high-tech equivalents and, vitally, within the competence of the Russian logistic and maintenance operation to keep serviceable, at least against 1st line equipment failures.
The operations to date have shown some very serious weaknesses in Russian staff work, as well, ranging from dreadful pre-invasion intelligence and assessment of likely Ukrainian resistance, through ****-poor management and control of logistics, through very poor coordination of air and ground operations, to some breathtakingly inept tactical decisions (I’m thinking here of the desant at the airfield outside Kiyiv in a contested air environment and a recent clip of a T-90 regiment making a 100km approach march to Ukraine on its tracks – panzer veterans will know just how impactful that is on track mileage and serviceability).
What then? There is no way in the world a hundred thousand or so Russians can conceivably occupy an immense nation of 40,000,000 people. They can hold the urban centres, probably and secure some of the vital land communications links between them – major roads and railways, that kind of thing – but will be unable to dominate the white space on the map – and thus ensure the supply of food, energy and vital services to the cities and their garrisons. The Russians haven’t shown themselves to be remotely concerned for the fates of local civilians in Grozny or Aleppo, of course and if the Ukrainians muster – as I’d expect them to – staunch partisan and insurgent resistance, that lack of concern will become ever more evident.
This is unsustainable, short of national mobilisation in Russia – which, frankly, they couldn’t afford and which would – even given the power and strength of Russian internal propaganda – not attract wide public support. Unless, of course, it can be spun as Russia versus an aggressive NATO. That’s why we’re treading very carefully and actively avoiding giving the Russians a pretext for involving NATO in an Article 5 action.
The reality is that Russian combat power is barely sufficient to take and hold Ukraine. They couldn’t possibly do anything much in the Baltic or against the Finns, never mind the Poles. The Russians – or, more accurately, the President of Russia – has driven the nation into a strategic cul-de-sac. He may choose to escalate in the hope of sparking national mobilisation, but I sincerely hope that sanctions will bite his backers hard enough that he is persuaded to pack it in – or that the General Staff, who aren’t in any way stupid – will have now begun to realise just how useless their much-vaunted high-tech military establishment is without the educational, training, logistics and maintenance structures which it signally lacks at the moment.
The Russians bought some very nice and highly advanced kit, certainly – but not the means to deploy and sustain it successfully. Building that means is a generation’s work and the steady flow of body bags back to Russia as Cargo 200 loads will become public knowledge very, very soon."

[Lancasterclaret]

This is a summary by an ex colleague of mine from my Army days. Ex Intelligence Corps who has been working as a consultant for a number of years. He posted this on he FB page.

"All else being equal and assuming that the Russians don’t suddenly decide to declare a unilateral end to operations and simply squat, sullenly, on those parts of Ukraine they’ve occupied, but, rather, carry grimly on, eventually, they’ll no doubt be able to eliminate or at least sufficiently attrite the Ukrainian Armed Forces and occupy at least some urban centres. It’ll cost them more casualties, more destroyed (and practically irreplaceable) high tech platforms, land and air alike and further demoralise an already not notably enthusiastic land force.
Russian combat power has been inexorably declining since the start of the war in Ukraine. The Russians deployed the bulk of their combat-ready and high-technology forces in the action and these are largely ineffective, or will be soon, through both hostile action and mechanical attrition. By the time they ‘win’, they’ll effectively be back in the 1980s, with boots on the ground toting automatic rifles and last-generation vehicles, nowhere near as fragile as their high-tech equivalents and, vitally, within the competence of the Russian logistic and maintenance operation to keep serviceable, at least against 1st line equipment failures.
The operations to date have shown some very serious weaknesses in Russian staff work, as well, ranging from dreadful pre-invasion intelligence and assessment of likely Ukrainian resistance, through ****-poor management and control of logistics, through very poor coordination of air and ground operations, to some breathtakingly inept tactical decisions (I’m thinking here of the desant at the airfield outside Kiyiv in a contested air environment and a recent clip of a T-90 regiment making a 100km approach march to Ukraine on its tracks – panzer veterans will know just how impactful that is on track mileage and serviceability).
What then? There is no way in the world a hundred thousand or so Russians can conceivably occupy an immense nation of 40,000,000 people. They can hold the urban centres, probably and secure some of the vital land communications links between them – major roads and railways, that kind of thing – but will be unable to dominate the white space on the map – and thus ensure the supply of food, energy and vital services to the cities and their garrisons. The Russians haven’t shown themselves to be remotely concerned for the fates of local civilians in Grozny or Aleppo, of course and if the Ukrainians muster – as I’d expect them to – staunch partisan and insurgent resistance, that lack of concern will become ever more evident.
This is unsustainable, short of national mobilisation in Russia – which, frankly, they couldn’t afford and which would – even given the power and strength of Russian internal propaganda – not attract wide public support. Unless, of course, it can be spun as Russia versus an aggressive NATO. That’s why we’re treading very carefully and actively avoiding giving the Russians a pretext for involving NATO in an Article 5 action.
The reality is that Russian combat power is barely sufficient to take and hold Ukraine. They couldn’t possibly do anything much in the Baltic or against the Finns, never mind the Poles. The Russians – or, more accurately, the President of Russia – has driven the nation into a strategic cul-de-sac. He may choose to escalate in the hope of sparking national mobilisation, but I sincerely hope that sanctions will bite his backers hard enough that he is persuaded to pack it in – or that the General Staff, who aren’t in any way stupid – will have now begun to realise just how useless their much-vaunted high-tech military establishment is without the educational, training, logistics and maintenance structures which it signally lacks at the moment.
The Russians bought some very nice and highly advanced kit, certainly – but not the means to deploy and sustain it successfully. Building that means is a generation’s work and the steady flow of body bags back to Russia as Cargo 200 loads will become public knowledge very, very soon."

Only thing I would say about that is the Russians are already making huge efforts not to repatriate their fallen. I suspect that when that becomes common knowledge (if it does) then it will be even more damaging than returning loads of body bags.

I do wonder if the reason not to give Ukraine jets is the strong belief that they don't actually need them

I would imagine that the Russians cannot count on the fighting effectiveness of too many of their troops, and the ones they can rely on will have to lead the attacks, with the rather obvious conclusion that they will have less and less of them each attack

[Vegas Claret]

I do wonder if the reason not to give Ukraine jets is the strong belief that they don't actually need them

for reasons I've already stated I think they are being given plenty of drones

[Claret]

Mariupol maternity hospital destroyed https://twitter.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/ ... Q7rSeTrplg

Dan Rivers reporting it too

This is awful. Dreadful.

[ALP]

Another tweet on the maternity hospital

https://twitter.com/DmytroGurinMP/statu ... 8761176066

[BERNIEU]

Ukraine: Woman travels from home from NI to deliver aid
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-60653666

She said she saw some children who had been sent across the border without their parents, but had contact telephone numbers written on their arms for their families.

Not many words to describe that, just heart-breaking. Imagine going through that as an adult, but as a child.