Russia Invades

[elwaclaret]

Prof Phillips OBrian retweet on latest on the ground from Ukraine, Kyiv

https://twitter.com/iaponomarenko/statu ... 64768?s=21

[Taffy on the wing]

NEW YORK TIMES - Turkey peace talks failed because Lavrov claimed Russia DID NOT attack Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1501 ... 89287?s=21

Typical of Lavrov......him and Putin are peas in the same pod.

[Tribesmen]

Thanks to Lancaster, Elwa & Vegas Claret(s) for sharing so much information on this thread. Better than the BBC, this thread.

Mad really as i use this thread to see what going on in Ukraine .

Thanks everyone

[elwaclaret]

Typical of Lavrov......him and Putin are peas in the same pod.

And yet his stepdaughter is living a life we could only dream of in London, unsanctioned (posted earlier)

[NewClaret]

Two Missiles that wont kill Ukrainians - (for those who like to see stuff blown up). I presume a drone?

https://twitter.com/laughing_stoic/stat ... 24001?s=21

So that was a Russian missile system destroyed? Good news.

What’s the reference to the Ukrainian farmer in the tweet. That made me think it was a Ukrainian unit.

[Taffy on the wing]

Yep...money money money......Russians own half of London,New York & other cities, they have to park their dirty money somewhere.....all the seized assets should be used to rebuild Ukraine...IMO.

[LeadBelly]

So that was a Russian missile system destroyed? Good news.

What’s the reference to the Ukrainian farmer in the tweet. That made me think it was a Ukrainian unit.

Ukrainian farmers have been towing away out-of-action Russian armour (broken down/abandoned) for trophies/salvage/reuse.

[TheFamilyCat]

Typical of Lavrov......him and Putin are peas in the same pod.

Two balls in the same scrotum

[NewClaret]

Ukrainian farmers have been towing away out-of-action Russian armour (broken down/abandoned) for trophies/salvage/reuse.

Ah, got you Thanks

[NewClaret]

Found a couple but no idea what’s close to the truth. This lines up with a few of them. So if the 65% is true, that’s about 1,500 tanks committed to the battle field. Let’s assume those in Storage are so old and not maintained they would probably not work or not for long.

4E2AB19A-8B8A-4089-B5FD-C2855027E6F1.png

Thanks.

Yep, they seem to have a lot in storage Let’s hope they date back to the Arc or are not maintained. I’m no military analyst but some of the tanks I’ve seen look very old. Hope Putin’s not been using all his tanks from storage & saving the good gear for when the Ukrainians are weakened!

[elwaclaret]

Just been tweeted and given the source is Phillips OBrian - it suggests Ukraine is now tipping the balance, seemingly on most if not all fronts Ukraine has or is about to take the initiative. This is from several key sources and from analysis of Russian movements preparing to receive Ukrainian assaults. THIS SOUNDS VERY POSITIVE

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... 99686?s=21

[NewClaret]

THIS SOUNDS VERY POSITIVE

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... 99686?s=21

It does, but I’ve just watched ITV news and their map shows large areas under Russian control. This is what I struggle to understand is how some sources are saying these massive land masses are under Russian control & others reporting that Ukraine are on top (or starting to get on top)?

[Vegas Claret]

not sure this has been posted yet - again, well worth the read
https://twitter.com/igorsushko/status/1 ... zIoWAuf2yA

[elwaclaret]

It does, but I’ve just watched ITV news and their map shows large areas under Russian control. This is what I struggle to understand is how some sources are saying these massive land masses are under Russian control & others reporting that Ukraine are on top (or starting to get on top)?

I’d go with these sources on here. Every single time New Claret. Its’s military experts and observers talking to Profs. ITV News is in all honesty, and not being patronising to them - are the people who ask these people to tell them what is going on… as is pretty much any newsagency, tbh.

[Lancasterclaret]

Its a lot harder to attack then it is to defend

Local counter attacks against a demoralised enemy is one thing, but Ukraine just need to stay in the field, and Russia loses

I hope (if this is true) that they don't get too carried away

Its one of those things that you really do wish you knew just how bad the Russian morale and supply situation is

[Lancasterclaret]

It does, but I’ve just watched ITV news and their map shows large areas under Russian control. This is what I struggle to understand is how some sources are saying these massive land masses are under Russian control & others reporting that Ukraine are on top (or starting to get on top)?

Control in the context here is meaningless, its very likely that Russian troops barely control the areas they actually are in, the vulnerable supply and rear areas are getting attacked on a regular basis by the Ukrainian troops, and the abundance of modern anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles amongst them will be destroying Russian morale and faith in their equipment (see that ambush today, that is just about acceptable on Day 1 of a war, but after two weeks?)

The maps I've seen show Russia pushing past pockets in cities and towns, and trying to encircle them, while also trying to push forward on all fronts, and there is nothing to suggest they have the troops, the leadership or the logistics for all or any of that

[Vegas Claret]

Its a lot harder to attack then it is to defend

Local counter attacks against a demoralised enemy is one thing, but Ukraine just need to stay in the field, and Russia loses

I hope (if this is true) that they don't get too carried away

Its one of those things that you really do wish you knew just how bad the Russian morale and supply situation is

thing is, Russia are making their decisions, Ukraine is being advised with real time info that will far supersede what Russia has. Very noticeable that the Awacs have disappeared from the maps (zero chance they aren't up) and I would bet anything that there have been U2's up the entire time. Ukrainians aren't winging any of this imho

[Lancasterclaret]

thing is, Russia are making their decisions, Ukraine is being advised with real time info that will far supersede what Russia has. Very noticeable that the Awacs have disappeared from the maps (zero chance they aren't up) and I would bet anything that there have been U2's up the entire time. Ukrainians aren't winging any of this imho

Yeah, Ukrainian high morale, Western weapons and NATO SIGNIT have made a huge difference

And you are watching a nation state forged in fire here, and that will unite them for decades

An absolutely total clusterf**k of a miscalculation by the Russians

But they still have substantial forces in the field, and we need some more evidence before anyone gets carried away

[elwaclaret]

Of course when the realisation that they are losing really kicks in is when it becomes mostly likely they will employ Chemical Weapons, certainly a concern going around our Brass.

[Vegas Claret]

Of course when the realisation that they are losing really kicks in is when it becomes mostly likely they will employ Chemical Weapons, certainly a concern going around our Brass.

and like I said to you last night (tongue in cheek....ish) is the response from the West going to be asking Yves St Laurent to stop selling perfume in Moscow ? No way they can allow chemical weapons to be used in Europe, no chance

[Vegas Claret]

tank movement through Vegas
https://rumble.com/vwysjd-military-tank ... .6.22.html

https://twitter.com/LeroyNotCenkins/sta ... hldZeHlgtw

[Spiral]

It does, but I’ve just watched ITV news and their map shows large areas under Russian control. This is what I struggle to understand is how some sources are saying these massive land masses are under Russian control & others reporting that Ukraine are on top (or starting to get on top)?

Just in case you or anyone else missed it, it's worth bumping a twitter thread Lancaster posted over a week ago about how maps are understood, or rather, misunderstood.

https://twitter.com/Calthalas/status/14 ... 8755680260

From my understanding of it, the long and short of it is that coloured/shaded areas we see represented as being under Russian control only really represent areas where there is a Russian military presence, but "presence" could just mean fighting, it does not necessarily mean territorial control. The Russian forces in these areas could be at a standstill, holding territory, bleeding resources, establishing quasi-forward operating bases, entirely cut-off from command, pushing through Ukrainian defence, being pushed back by the Ukrainian defence, anything. The areas could still be contested, and many are being contested daily. Presence as represented by the shading seen on the maps we see on the news doesn't necessarily equate to dominance of that territory. It just means 'there's some Russians here'. Doesn't say enough militarily.

[Spiral]

Also, my own input, the size of the area controlled by an invading force is of far less importance than the population density of an area controlled. Putting aside for a moment the fact that by dint of its geography, economy and military Britain is practically un-invadable, let's say for example an invading force attempting to conquer Britain takes the Scottish highlands. It would look impressive on a map, no doubt, but it means little if that invading force still has to fight its way through the country's bigger towns and cities to defeat the military and topple the govt. Taking the population centres and the seat of govt in particular is what matters for an invading force. This was supposed to be a three-day invasion. Those maps we're seeing have changed very little in the last two weeks because the Russians are being stalled whenever they get out of the countryside and into the places where people are.

[Burnley1989]

tank movement through Vegas
https://rumble.com/vwysjd-military-tank ... .6.22.html

https://twitter.com/LeroyNotCenkins/sta ... hldZeHlgtw

Doubt there’s anything in that, they weren’t even tanks

[bfcjg]

Sounds very hopeful but if there is a regime change in Russia after all this has played out with the Russian people also liberated from Putin and the old guard it could become a decent Western style democracy, the younger Russians want freedom it could be the beginning of the end of Russia as we knew it.

[Lancasterclaret]

BBC report from Kharki'v

*content warning btw*

https://twitter.com/sommervilletv/statu ... 5490227206

[Chuckypad]

Not sure if it's been put on here but it seems that huge convoy is no longer stuck, and is now moving/dispersing into towns on the outside of Ky'iv

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60702464

[AlargeClaret]

It’s a clearly a case of “ will the UKR” surrender when the Kiev and other cities are fully surrounded ? This could be when they unleash serious air power . The sheer size of UKR though could make any occupation a logistical nightmare . I think 3 weeks was the most realistic original timescale Russia hoped for . Sanctions are gonna rip through Russia though I just can’t see Vlad backpedaling.

[bfcjg]

More talk of chemical weapons being used,this could be what draws NATO in,if he takes Ukraine by genocide he won't stop there.

[ClaretLoup]

Russia has never had a democracy for any protracted length of time. Consider that serfdom was only abolished in the 1860’s and it was a Tsardom until the Russian Revolution in 1917 . Unlike our democracy and that of other “Western” nations which evolved over hundreds of years the Russians have no real experience of debate discussion, consensus and compromise in their political system. If you read the Kalim Galeev threads on Twitter about the way the Russian Oligarchs have hi-jacked the Russian state focussing on control of natural resources by the likes of Abramovich you’ll understand that their political and economic system is based on a mafia style system of pizzo, protection and armed militias. Putins personal guard consists of 3000 men, plus support from Warlords in Chechnya. Chess champion and Russian exile Garry Kasparov reckons that Putin’s personal wealth is some £200 billion and he’s the richest man in the world. Bear in mind he has always been a Government official.

Add in the massive corruption that evolved during the Soviet era and the likelihood of a fully functioning democracy as we know it is unlikely any time soon. 15 years for war protests, journalists and opposition leaders assassinated with impunity, virtually no free press, mass censorship, internet blocked etc.

When starting from these base points establishing a democracy in Russia is a pipe dream.

[frankinwales]

Thanks ckaretloup,

State organised corruption.

...add to that the total absence of a free and fair judiciary and any new government would have so much to do.

[GodIsADeeJay81]

https://twitter.com/militaryhistori/sta ... 4DfIQ&s=19

Kazakhstan sending aid to Ukraine, despite being a close ally of Russia.

[NewClaret]

BBC report from Kharki'v

*content warning btw*

https://twitter.com/sommervilletv/statu ... 5490227206

The grim realities of war for both sides on full display there.

[NewClaret]

Not sure if it's been put on here but it seems that huge convoy is no longer stuck, and is now moving/dispersing into towns on the outside of Ky'iv

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60702464

This is why I though Ukraine should take it out when it was stuck.

[Burnley1989]

BBC report from Kharki'v

*content warning btw*

https://twitter.com/sommervilletv/statu ... 5490227206

A hard watch was that and the first time I’ve watched one that showed the dead
I do genuinely feel sorry for somebodies Russian son laying face down ‘for the dogs’, war is awful, there are no winners

[ALP]

Oh joy, this could ramp things up further if true

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60685883

Putin welcomes volunteers to help fight in Ukraine
We're now hearing Russian President Vladimir Putin has backed plans to send volunteer fighters to Ukraine.

Putin, speaking at a Russian security council meeting, said those who wanted to volunteer to fight with Russia-backed forces should be allowed to.

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said there were 16,000 volunteers in the Middle East who were ready to come to fight with Russia-backed forces, Reuters news agency reports.

[CoolClaret]

Random one but where do you think Putin is now?

No chance he’s anywhere near the Kremlin, well at least in my own opinion.

I’d like to know if we (NATO/West) has any intel on his location…

[GodIsADeeJay81]

Oh joy, this could ramp things up further if true

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60685883

Putin welcomes volunteers to help fight in Ukraine
We're now hearing Russian President Vladimir Putin has backed plans to send volunteer fighters to Ukraine.

Putin, speaking at a Russian security council meeting, said those who wanted to volunteer to fight with Russia-backed forces should be allowed to.

Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said there were 16,000 volunteers in the Middle East who were ready to come to fight with Russia-backed forces, Reuters news agency reports.

If he's encouraging foreign fighters then that means its really not going well, plus they'll be battle hardened and more used to urban warfare.
Plus they'd be more likely to commit horrific acts against civilians

[Firthy]

If he's encouraging foreign fighters then that means its really not going well, plus they'll be battle hardened and more used to urban warfare.
Plus they'd be more likely to commit horrific acts against civilians

Might just tip NATO into becoming involved because Ukraine would not just be fighting Russia and they would be defending Ukraine against foreign fighters as well.

[ClaretLoup]

Oh joy, this could ramp things up further if true



Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu said there were 16,000 volunteers in the Middle East who were ready to come to fight with Russia-backed forces, Reuters news agency reports.

The more you read about these guys the worse it becomes. Shoigu comes from a long line of Communist Party apparatchiks and is an old buddy of Putin from CCCP days. His daughter is married to the Russian Prosecutor General, guess who appoints him? Putin.

No wonder Russians just keep their heads down and there is no serious organised resistance to Putin.

[Lancasterclaret]

Awaiting confirmation but a report that the two most senior FSB operatives involved in the intelligence gathering that Russia used to attack Ukraine (ie the made up ******** that Putin wanted to hear) both under house arrest

https://twitter.com/AndreiSoldatov/stat ... 4499601411

[elwaclaret]

https://twitter.com/militaryhistori/sta ... 4DfIQ&s=19

Kazakhstan sending aid to Ukraine, despite being a close ally of Russia.

That is incredibly brave of them, Putin would think nothing of squashing them.

[elwaclaret]

Awaiting confirmation but a report that the two most senior FSB operatives involved in the intelligence gathering that Russia used to attack Ukraine (ie the made up ******** that Putin wanted to hear) both under house arrest

https://twitter.com/AndreiSoldatov/stat ... 4499601411

Looking at the comments and retweets on this, as Lancaster says - treat with an element of caution. This may well indeed the case, but we need a stronger web of retweets before we can count on it fully.

[Lancasterclaret]

More maps trying to show what is happening where

https://twitter.com/HN_Schlottman/statu ... 4256816130

[elwaclaret]

Craddock-Adams - Kharkiv reminiscent of its own past history, with no electric church bells now sound alarms and ‘bread queues’ taking two hours to be served.

https://twitter.com/tc1415/status/15022 ... 53955?s=21

[elwaclaret]

Russian claims that they wont be shooting at humanitarian aid planes of food and water, it seems does not extend to DUTCH passenger flights. (Peter Caddick-Adams retweet)

https://twitter.com/llpmachete/status/1 ... 54177?s=21

[elwaclaret]

OTHER NEWS: For those (several posters who have been wondering) whether this new tough European attitude to dirty money may extend to the Middle East, Sweden seems to be providing an answer it is not just Russians who are to be targeted.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1502 ... 62752?s=21

[elwaclaret]

Reuters: UK sanctions will cover Russian lawmakers, a sanctions announced on 368 members of Russias lower house

https://twitter.com/reutersuk/status/15 ... 02272?s=21

[JarrowClaret]

It does, but I’ve just watched ITV news and their map shows large areas under Russian control. This is what I struggle to understand is how some sources are saying these massive land masses are under Russian control & others reporting that Ukraine are on top (or starting to get on top)?

The Russian control centres largely on roads the more accurate maps I have seen will have some blobs but mostly it is multiple lines which basically show there axis of advance. The Maps you are on about basically show where there is Russian activity in no way will they control all the areas though.

[elwaclaret]

World War 2 tank traps have been removed from museums to help protect Kiyv

https://twitter.com/bdmurray/status/150 ... 79013?s=21