Russia Invades

[Cubanforever]

It's good this thread is being cleaned up because it was turning a bit Friday-Night. There are/were posts suggesting NATO militery intervention, for calling a nuclear bluff, for overthrowing a govt by force etc. Unless someone can convince me of the flaws in the following points, it's best to temper your emotions and remain calm, because hysteria leads to bad decision making. So in a sincere answer to some of the points raised (which appear to have been deleted, but I'll address them anyway)...

1. NATO is a mutual defence organisation. It's not a mutual offense pact, it's a mutual defence pact. It concerns itself with the security of its members, not those members' neighbours. An argument can be made for Ukrainian security and Polish security being associated with and necessary to one another, but in practical terms they are not. There's a reason why NATO leaders have continually reaffirmed their commitment to defending NATO territory should any NATO ally be invaded: it contains to the Ukraine the conflict which has been made inevitable by one man only — Putin. A battlefield intervention by NATO on behalf of a non-member state is guaranteed to be interpreted by so-called "natural enemies" (more than just Russia) as NATO overstepping its self-imposed boundaries and acting as an aggressor. This is not a sentimental position to take, it would be a political necessity for Russia to interpret such a battlefield intervention by NATO on behalf of a non-member as being a recalibration of NATO policy. For the duty he ostensibly has to the security of his country (not that Putin really seems to care for that, but it's convenient for him to pretend to) no Russian leader, no matter who it is, would have political wiggle room to assume otherwise. Every player in the game knows this, which is why intervention is off the table. Note the very important difference between an offensive mobilisation abroad and a defensive mobilisation at home. Moral cases can be made left and right for "doing something" (tell me what, then) but this leads to my second point...

2. Nuclear war. A few assumptions which I assume are held to be true by everyone: Putin is in a corner with only the slightest room to back down; Putin has zero regard for human life, even Russian ones; Putin, it is assumed, has surrounded himself with servants who will carry out his every command; Russia can and will escalate to nuclear war if Putin feels as though he has no escape. (Hitler threw child soldiers at his enemies by the end. Don't think Putin isn't capable of similar such horrors). This is a not a bluff any sane person would call. Despite the horrors we're seeing, which our so-called inaction is argued by some to be allowing it to happen, the people who will suffer the most from nuclear war are the Ukrainians. When people demand we call his bluff, know that it's the Ukrainians who will bear the biggest cost if we end up miscalculating. You're being cheap with other people's lives by being so cavalier. The kind of NATO intervention some on here want to see would be interpreted by Russians as presenting an existential threat to their nation, and the first place to be turned to glass by Russian nukes would be Kyiv. I said it right at the beginning on this war and I stand by it, you defeat Putin by arming Ukraine to the teeth and squeezing Russia so hard economically and politically that the Russians, either the military, the establishment, the wealthy, the common people themselves or a combination of all, solve this problem for us. Which leads to...

3. Regime change. Assassination is impossible. Take that off the table. But no leader, no matter how tyrannical or despotic, can survive without the support of the army and the police. A significant NATO presence in the Ukraine would inevitably spook both, and they along with common Russian citizens would naturally rally around Putin and the flag. Just imagine if the shoe was on the other foot. You believe your govt is full of $hit and that the so-called enemy is nowhere near the threat the govt make them out to be. But you're living under a dictator, so you keep your head down, do as you're told etc. Now the so-called enemy crosses borders it said it never would cross and has weapons aimed at you. It's human nature at that point to rally around the $hit govt, because it turns out they might not have been lying after all. Indeed, this is how Putin has accumulated power over the years, by inflating (lying about) the threat we pose to Russia. NATO intervention in Ukraine validates his rhetoric, legitimises his dictatorial rule, strengthens his power base, puts the world at severe risk of nuclear war, and most importantly, exposes the possibility for him to completely unload on Ukraine with nuclear weapons in an act of paranoid madness. Helping the Ukrainians fight this one on their own with all the support we can give them — political and economic support, weapons, intelligence — while isolating Russia from the world, alienating Putin and his enablers and letting him bear the consequences of this invasion alone, will see him relegated to obscurity. Anything else more interventionist is far too dangerous for everyone, especially Ukraine.

All of what we're witnessing is beyond horrible, no doubt, but some of you really need to calm down a bit. When you say "do more" or wring your hands about us "doing nothing" you need to understand that that "more" you want us to do most likely will be more fatal. The images you're seeing are understandably giving you a bloodthirst, but you're not thinking straight. We could have had this exact conversation during all other proxy wars fought in the last seventy years. We never fire on Russians, they never fire on us. We're all still here able to talk about it because of this very principle.

Well done

[KRBFC]

Potentially the comeback for deserting would mean action taken against their families.

It's a rock and a hard place for them really.

Action like prison time? I think I'd rather take a few years in prison than be blown to pieces in another country and my body never be found.

[Vegas Claret]

Informative thread on where we are now, how desperate Russia is, and how dangerous that might be for an escalation

https://twitter.com/BrynnTannehill/stat ... 4448787459

the paper tiger line - superbly written piece, cheers for posting that

[GodIsADeeJay81]

Action like prison time? I think I'd rather take a few years in prison than be blown to pieces in another country and my body never be found.

Its the relatives of the soldiers who could face prison, not just the soldiers.
Putin is unhinged, he could order mass imprisonment or worse of the families of soldiers who abandon their posts.

[Spiral]

Action like prison time? I think I'd rather take a few years in prison than be blown to pieces in another country and my body never be found.

It's been alluded to in a few of the threads posted that people fear torture in Russia. I doubt a lowly conscript truly believes he'll be tortured by the state, but the fear is enough to make him obedient. I suspect most lowly soldiers, having been fed the propaganda that they're being welcomed in Ukraine as liberators, make the calculation that it's an easier life to follow a stupid order and hope what you've been told is true than to risk being done for insubordination. So many soldiers haven't a clue why they're there. The resistance which they're facing is a surprise to them. Penny drops soon enough though, word spreads, and as we're seeing, the invasion falters because they're not up for the fight.

[elwaclaret]

It's been alluded to in a few of the threads posted that people fear torture in Russia. I doubt a lowly conscript truly believes he'll be tortured by the state, but the fear is enough to make him obedient. I suspect most lowly soldiers, having been fed the propaganda that they're being welcomed in Ukraine as liberators, make the calculation that it's an easier life to follow a stupid order and hope what you've been told is true than to risk being done for insubordination. So many soldiers haven't a clue why they're there. The resistance which they're facing is a surprise to them. Penny drops soon enough though, word spreads, and as we're seeing, the invasion falters because they're not up for the fight.

Only so far. Mainly they are told to obey their Military commanders - it must be pretty hard to know which way to jump, the blokes they recognise being shot regularly; and those they watch on tele, at the Kremlin, being sent to the Gulag without warning today. Who is going to be commanding them to do anything?

[KRBFC]

It's been alluded to in a few of the threads posted that people fear torture in Russia. I doubt a lowly conscript truly believes he'll be tortured by the state, but the fear is enough to make him obedient. I suspect most lowly soldiers, having been fed the propaganda that they're being welcomed in Ukraine as liberators, make the calculation that it's an easier life to follow a stupid order and hope what you've been told is true than to risk being done for insubordination. So many soldiers haven't a clue why they're there. The resistance which they're facing is a surprise to them. Penny drops soon enough though, word spreads, and as we're seeing, the invasion falters because they're not up for the fight.

Every single one of the captured Russians claim they've been tricked. In that position once I found out i'd be duped, I definitely wouldn't stay and fight on foreign land. I wonder what the best options are though, turn around and go home, surrender, hibernate in the woods, strip from your Russian uniform pretend to be a Ukrainian refugee and cross into Poland?

[Lowbankclaret]

What exactly is the punishment for Russian soldiers turning around and heading home?

They're just sat waiting to die in vehicles, taking an absolute battering.

On one of the links, a captured soldier talks about ringing home to his parents.
They told him they had booked his funeral already. His only option once back home, firing squad.

[Lancasterclaret]

I don't think you can underestimate the difficulties of fighting somewhere that looks like home, sounds like home and you've been told wants to be home, and it turns out that everyone hates your guts and wants to kill you

That Russian speaking Ukrainian grandmother on Day one talking to one of them and given them sunflower seeds so that when they die something grows was absolutely 100% right

[Vegas Claret]

...

[elwaclaret]

Peter Caddick-Adams contact says Ukrainian Airforce still at 80% of full effectiveness.

https://twitter.com/iaponomarenko/statu ... 82638?s=21

[elwaclaret]

...

Quite a change since that EU meeting today, yesterday Portugal would not touch him; had there mind’s changed last night ( ahead of the meeting) Abramovich was thought to be heading ultimately for Isreal, and more general reports of his boat heading east.

[KRBFC]

I don't think you can underestimate the difficulties of fighting somewhere that looks like home, sounds like home and you've been told wants to be home, and it turns out that everyone hates your guts and wants to kill you

That Russian speaking Ukrainian grandmother on Day one talking to one of them and given them sunflower seeds so that when they die something grows was absolutely 100% right

but surrendering is an option, turning around and going home is an option, desertion is an option. I just wondered the punishment for each, if it was a better option than being blown into pieces on foreign soil, where your body will never be recovered for your family. I think I'd strip from the uniform, go to the mountains and live like Bear Grylls in hope it ends.

[elwaclaret]

Ukrainian (good source) - besides having problems with logistics, starving Russian soldiers rations are being sold on the black market in Russia.

https://twitter.com/christogrozev/statu ... 34979?s=21

[Elbarad]

https://twitter.com/MaximAlyukov/status ... 3012658177

Potentially more good news

(if read the following threads it basically says this wouldn't be done spontaneously, and is almost certainly with Russian Presidency approval)

Be interesting to see where this ends up

Good grief I hope that's true because I don't believe they could air that without the government's approval. If they just declare victory and leave, they could end it quickly.

[Bin Ont Turf]

Peter Caddick-Adams contact says Ukrainian Airforce still at 80% of full effectiveness.

https://twitter.com/iaponomarenko/statu ... 82638?s=21

Whether that's true or not it's been absolutely pathetic from the Ruskies, thank goodness.

It's like they are still stuck in the 1940's.

[elwaclaret]

but surrendering is an option, turning around and going home is an option, desertion is an option. I just wondered the punishment for each, if it was a better option than being blown into pieces on foreign soil, where your body will never be recovered for your family. I think I'd strip from the uniform, go to the mountains and live like Bear Grylls in hope it ends.

You’re braver than most its -14 at night.

[elwaclaret]

Russia starts legal action against Meta (facebook/instagram) for allowing death calls.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1502 ... 16809?s=21

[JarrowClaret]

exactly what I've been saying, West acting like a punch of pussies

Vegas I’m sorry that is utter crap, as sad and nightmareish it is the west currently are doing the correct thing. Every country would want to get involved militarily if they could but unfortunately it isn’t worth the risk the consequences of us getting involved would affect every country not just 2 and probably catastrophic.

I suspect you will get your wish soon enough but hope we don’t though.

[JarrowClaret]

Details from the earlier pentagon briefing:

https://twitter.com/danlamothe/status/1 ... 23237?s=21

[JarrowClaret]

but surrendering is an option, turning around and going home is an option, desertion is an option. I just wondered the punishment for each, if it was a better option than being blown into pieces on foreign soil, where your body will never be recovered for your family. I think I'd strip from the uniform, go to the mountains and live like Bear Grylls in hope it ends.

Sadly I don’t think there is a good option for the Russian soldiers, they sent conscripts to die for Christ sake. I suspect deserters if caught will be shot the POWs I’m not sure about but I don’t think they will be welcomed with open arms.

[Vegas Claret]

Vegas I’m sorry that is utter crap, as sad and nightmareish it is the west currently are doing the correct thing. Every country would want to get involved militarily if they could but unfortunately it isn’t worth the risk the consequences of us getting involved would affect every country not just 2 and probably catastrophic.

I suspect you will get your wish soon enough but hope we don’t though.

couple of things, what happens (unlikely but none of us thought we'd be here in 2022) if Putin lands a rocket in Sweden or Switzerland ? Do we ask them to stop selling watches and chocolate to moscow ?
Secondly, it's absolutely not my wish for any of this to escalate (but Putin will do so regardless) and I've no idea where you've got that from.

[JarrowClaret]

couple of things, what happens (unlikely but none of us thought we'd be here in 2022) if Putin lands a rocket in Sweden or Switzerland ? Do we ask them to stop selling watches and chocolate to moscow ?
Secondly, it's absolutely not my wish for any of this to escalate (but Putin will do so regardless) and I've no idea where you've got that from.

You said the west were being pussies I assumed your wish is for them to stop being? I could be wrong I guess either way we will get to the point that the west has to retaliate what that point is likely to be I don’t know. Short of him leaving office suddenly I can only see this going one way if he doesn’t start to see significant successes soon, sadly.

[JarrowClaret]

Some analysis of the current situation:

https://twitter.com/threshedthought/sta ... 38022?s=21

[Vegas Claret]

You said the west were being pussies I assumed your wish is for them to stop being? I could be wrong I guess either way we will get to the point that the west has to retaliate what that point is likely to be I don’t know. Short of him leaving office suddenly I can only see this going one way if he doesn’t start to see significant successes soon, sadly.

yes and I outlined my reasoning and made it very clear I was talking about rhetoric - I also said it was a very fine line they had to tread and I wouldn't like to be the person making those decisions - but the example I gave about Sweden and Switzerland (which you didn't answer) is a possibility and then what do we do ? If it does happen it will already be far too late for the poor people in Ukraine.

[Vegas Claret]

Some analysis of the current situation:

https://twitter.com/threshedthought/sta ... 38022?s=21

with stuff like this (and pretty much everyone has a similar analysis) do we think it's the military planners in Russia getting it so badly wrong or are they just too scared to tell Putin he is an absolute tool ?

[JarrowClaret]

yes and I outlined my reasoning and made it very clear I was talking about rhetoric - I also said it was a very fine line they had to tread and I wouldn't like to be the person making those decisions - but the example I gave about Sweden and Switzerland (which you didn't answer) is a possibility and then what do we do ? If it does happen it will already be far too late for the poor people in Ukraine.

I sort of answered it without mentioning it by saying I don’t know what will be the line in the sand we’re NATO say enough is enough I hope we don’t get there. Yeh It will be too late for Ukraine by then I agree not sure what the sensible and realistic alternative is though. No idea if any are strong enough but I wonder would happen if a country outside of NATO jumped in and helped?

[Vegas Claret]

I sort of answered it without mentioning it by saying I don’t know what will be the line in the sand we’re NATO say enough is enough I hope we don’t get there. Yeh It will be too late for Ukraine by then I agree not sure what the sensible and realistic alternative is though. No idea if any are strong enough but I wonder would happen if a country outside of NATO jumped in and helped?

interesting point, hadn't thought of that. Not seeing many volunteers for that though - I suspect Putin would say the West is behind it and start chucking chemicals about

[JarrowClaret]

with stuff like this (and pretty much everyone has a similar analysis) do we think it's the military planners in Russia getting it so badly wrong or are they just too scared to tell Putin he is an absolute tool ?

Both surrounded by yes men with little to no actual planning with what if’s involved.

What if they last longer than 4 days
What if they break up into smaller groups and attack our rear echelons
What if we get bogged down in the mud
What if we have logistics problems

They might have been a good start (benefit of hindsight granted)

[Taffy on the wing]

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/11/opin ... 71F2t_G0uw

A little pie to go along with this.

[JarrowClaret]

yes and I outlined my reasoning and made it very clear I was talking about rhetoric - I also said it was a very fine line they had to tread and I wouldn't like to be the person making those decisions - but the example I gave about Sweden and Switzerland (which you didn't answer) is a possibility and then what do we do ? If it does happen it will already be far too late for the poor people in Ukraine.

Just to add it is already too late for some poor people in Russia as well who have done nothing wrong other than believe what there leader is telling them. Not the same I get but still correct.

It is horrible I’m just hopefully that the Russian people start to see this for what it is and rise up against him, I guess the likelihood is near nil but ther is always hope.

[Vegas Claret]

...

[Vegas Claret]

Air strikes near Kropyvytskyi

https://twitter.com/danriversitv/status ... pY-DZQRy7A

[Lancasterclaret]

Some analysis of the current situation:

https://twitter.com/threshedthought/sta ... 38022?s=21

If they think they can magically teleport in L'viv and do something other than surrender straight away then they are madder than we all thought

They are obsessed with special ops, and special ops like that only work when L'viv is practically undefended, the Ukrainian air force no longer exists and they have the training and tactical expertise to carry it out. Even if you give them a pass on the training bit, the first two are clearly going to turn this into the same as the attempt on Hostomel on Day 1 of the war

Regarding NATO (or more specifically President Biden) I think we are lucky that we have an old cold war hand in charge. He's set out the red lines (just for confirmation) and I don't think anyone is in any doubt (including in the Russian Federation) that he means it, and he's pushing NATO support for Ukraine as far as its possible to go without giving Putin a reason to do something daft.

Course, if Putin decides to use chemical weapons to try to break deadlocks in the cities, then all bets are off, but again, you hope that the dangers of what that could mean will stay his hand

[Lancasterclaret]

Some analysis of the current situation:

https://twitter.com/threshedthought/sta ... 38022?s=21

If they think they can magically teleport in L'viv and do something other than surrender straight away then they are madder than we all thought

They are obsessed with special ops, and special ops like that only work when L'viv is practically undefended, the Ukrainian air force no longer exists and they have the training and tactical expertise to carry it out. Even if you give them a pass on the training bit, the first two are clearly going to turn this into the same as the attempt on Hostomel on Day 1 of the war

Regarding NATO (or more specifically President Biden) I think we are lucky that we have an old cold war hand in charge. He's set out the red lines (just for confirmation) and I don't think anyone is in any doubt (including in the Russian Federation) that he means it, and he's pushing NATO support for Ukraine as far as its possible to go without giving Putin a reason to do something daft.

Course, if Putin decides to use chemical weapons to try to break deadlocks in the cities, then all bets are off, but again, you hope that the dangers of what that could mean will stay his hand

[Lowbankclaret]

Russia is planning a false flag operation on the Nuclear plant in Chernobyl, possibly releasing nuclear contamination so they can up their brutality.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... laims.html

[JarrowClaret]

Some more analysis the end game is the concern here what is it?

https://twitter.com/brynntannehill/stat ... 87459?s=21

[Hipper]

Russia is planning a false flag operation on the Nuclear plant in Chernobyl, possibly releasing nuclear contamination so they can up their brutality.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... laims.html

Reading that Daily Mail article we get from 'Kviv's Military Intelligence Directorate' that 'Russian car refrigerators collecting the bodies of dead Ukrainian defenders were spotted near the Antonov airport in Hostomel. There is a possibility that they will be presented as killed saboteurs in the Chernobyl zone.' This leads to the headline in the post. Surely there are other possibilities too, some even worse depending on your imagination.

I was reading the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) latest summary and was struck how much of their sources are Ukrainian.

The Ukrainian's are certainly controlling the information war.

And before someone asks 'whose side am I on' of course I am for the Ukrainians.

[Lancasterclaret]

Reading that Daily Mail article we get from 'Kviv's Military Intelligence Directorate' that 'Russian car refrigerators collecting the bodies of dead Ukrainian defenders were spotted near the Antonov airport in Hostomel. There is a possibility that they will be presented as killed saboteurs in the Chernobyl zone.' This leads to the headline in the post. Surely there are other possibilities too, some even worse depending on your imagination.

I was reading the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) latest summary and was struck how much of their sources are Ukrainian.

The Ukrainian's are certainly controlling the information war.

And before someone asks 'whose side am I on' of course I am for the Ukrainians.

As I've said before, the only vaguely reliable sources are Ukrainian, because the Russian ones are 100% designed for internal consumption

You can use them as a useful backdrop to see where Russian and Ukrainian forces are fighting (and as the various analysts, professional and otherwise do for geolocating losses on both sides) but anything that looks bad for the Russians is just not shown, or not acknowledged

With the course of the war being very clear from multiple reliable Western sources saying one thing (pretty consistent across the board on Russian failures or successes) and the Russian ones completely ignoring those, and the Ukrainian ones being more realistic (and certainly easier to believe, because they are realistic), then yes, Ukraine is winning the (dis)information war hands down

[Hipper]

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/m ... sh-ukraine

[Lancasterclaret]

I thought the footage on the tele of the Ukrainian people singing the national anthem bedecked with flags in front of the occupying Russian soldiers inspiring. Russia will never win against these brave people.

And this is the key

That can be geo located, it can be independently confirmed to being where it is, and what time it is at

It is 100% definitely happening

That is absolutely gold dust propaganda, and has the absolute huge benefit of being 100% true.

[Hipper]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... on-ukraine

[Colburn_Claret]

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2022/m ... sh-ukraine

The problem with these stories, not that I disagree, is that it doesn't take into account of what would have been different under another government, or a different leader. The fact is these Oligarchs have been here for a long time, many individuals have questioned their money and influence, but none of the main Parties has suggested sanctions or restrictions. A knee jerk reaction, to finally do the right thing, but it would have been the same whether the government was Blue, Red or Yellow.
Hindsight being 20-20 vision is one thing, but I doubt anyone believed Putin would invade the Ukraine, in the manner he did, or that the rhetoric he has been spouting would be straight out of the Cold War days. We at least thought that Russia was moving towards the West, if not embracing it's politics.
Putin has isolated himself, not just from the West, but from his own people. Anyone who disagrees with him is removed, and the yes men around him tell him exactly what he wants to here. While Russia moved forward he has gone backwards. I don't think it's right to blame anyone in the west for that.

[Lowbankclaret]

The problem with these stories, not that I disagree, is that it doesn't take into account of what would have been different under another government, or a different leader. The fact is these Oligarchs have been here for a long time, many individuals have questioned their money and influence, but none of the main Parties has suggested sanctions or restrictions. A knee jerk reaction, to finally do the right thing, but it would have been the same whether the government was Blue, Red or Yellow.
Hindsight being 20-20 vision is one thing, but I doubt anyone believed Putin would invade the Ukraine, in the manner he did, or that the rhetoric he has been spouting would be straight out of the Cold War days. We at least thought that Russia was moving towards the West, if not embracing it's politics.
Putin has isolated himself, not just from the West, but from his own people. Anyone who disagrees with him is removed, and the yes men around him tell him exactly what he wants to here. While Russia moved forward he has gone backwards. I don't think it's right to blame anyone in the west for that.

Picking up on the part, I doubt anyone believed Putin would invade Ukraine.

I keep pointing out the guy Zeihan, a geopolitical analyst. He stated in his book that Russia would invade Ukraine and the geopolitical reasons why. I borrowed the book so cannot copy the pages to post on here. He is very well respected in his field.
The book is called Accidental Superpower.

[elwaclaret]

Been a long time since I read The Art of War, but nice to see others doffing their caps, (Caddick-Adams retweet)

https://twitter.com/wodawida/status/150 ... 67085?s=21

[elwaclaret]

It seems Craddock-Adams has been dwelling on his Sun Tzu, a follow up tweet

https://twitter.com/militaryhistori/sta ... 84872?s=21

[Colburn_Claret]

Picking up on the part, I doubt anyone believed Putin would invade Ukraine.

I keep pointing out the guy Zeihan, a geopolitical analyst. He stated in his book that Russia would invade Ukraine and the geopolitical reasons why. I borrowed the book so cannot copy the pages to post on here. He is very well respected in his field.
The book is called Accidental Superpower.

I accept that an individual might, the fall out from the 2014 uprising could have gone a few ways, but if the governments of the west had foreseen it, Ukraine would have been a lot better armed, organised and ready. God help the Russians then.
My main point was political point scoring over the issue is disingenuous, and does nothing for the problems of today.

[elwaclaret]

ELINT NEWS first of the Newsagencies to swoon over this, it’ll probably make the News Chanels later today. Heartwarming, from Ireland…

https://twitter.com/lesiavasylenko/stat ... 35395?s=21

[Lancasterclaret]

http://k.uscnpm.org/wap/article.aspx?d=99&id=27365

Interesting article from within China of the strategic situation and how China should be reacting

[DCWat]

http://k.uscnpm.org/wap/article.aspx?d=99&id=27365

Interesting article from within China of the strategic situation and how China should be reacting

All I got from that was 911