Russia Invades

Corky · Post by **Corky** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 8:29 am

If Putin does use nukes then it all depends what type; strategic or more likely tactical ones. Then it depends on the size and yield. If he fires off one nuclear tipped artillery shell and drops it on Kyiv then how does NATO react.

fatboy47 · Post by **fatboy47** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 8:38 am

Just reading the thread with increasing disbelief.

I'm left wondering if some posters actually realise the almost certain scenario once that first missile is unleashed?

I'd seriously suggest (like KRBFC) that posters stick to linking reasonable sources of intelligence...and leave out the doomsday stuff.

Dark Cloud · Post by **Dark Cloud** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 9:00 am

KRBFC wrote: ↑
Fri Mar 25, 2022 11:37 pm
The problem with invading a country is you're automatically up against an army of millions of people, so you're out numbered from the get go.

Exactly. Invading a country is one thing, but actually holding on to that (hostile) country long term is quite another as you'll never be able to withdraw a serious armed presence and they'll be constantly getting picked off and subject to guerilla attack.
Re the separatists. My understanding is that they are Russians who were settled there during the soviet era to try to make the country feel more like part of Russia and it happened in other soviet countries too. Now we have second, third and fourth generations who have never been to Russia, but speak Russian and still identity with Russia and playing to their feelings of insecurity (real or imagined) is what Putin is doing.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 9:04 am

fatboy47 wrote: ↑
Sat Mar 26, 2022 8:38 am
Just reading the thread with increasing disbelief.

I'm left wondering if some posters actually realise the almost certain scenario once that first missile is unleashed?

I'd seriously suggest (like KRBFC) that posters stick to linking reasonable sources of intelligence...and leave out the doomsday stuff.

Thing is, NATO have to consider the implications if Putin is mad enough to launch a nuke, even a battlefield one.

First, it means he's mad, and second, it means that he's not worrying about the short. medium or long term implications, as long as it appears to show a way for him to win

If NATO (or China) let him get away with that, then he will just do it again

I'm sorry if its doomsday speak, but if Putin decides that to this, then the consequences are either waiting for him to do it again (and he will, because he will have been emboldened by the failure to react first time around) or reacting

I've blocked KRBFC a long time ago, so I've no idea if what he is saying is similar (but I doubt it)

Again, can only apologise for being fatalistic about this, but we have to hope that he has capability to admit that this was a mistake and that he might have to take a defeat, rather than following what is essentially both NATO and Russian doctrine.

bobinho · Post by **bobinho** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 9:17 am

Putin doesn’t strike me as someone who is prepared to accept defeat in any form.

The rest of the world needs to unite on this. At least, the major players need to unite.

One nuke, and it’s all over…. I don’t believe it can and will be ignored by anyone. Salisbury and Crimea have all added to his belief that he can act with impunity…. That HAS to stop now.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 9:19 am

NewClaret wrote: ↑
Fri Mar 25, 2022 10:08 pm
Just read on BBC that Russia have claimed to have completely destroyed Ukraines Air Force and air defence systems.

Not seen that reported on here. That sounds very bad!

They haven't

Essentially Russia hasn't control of the air, and can't really venture over the Dnieper River with its fixed wing or helicopter assets because of the dangers of the remaining Ukrainian aircraft and the SAM systems

They are flying a lot more sorties than they were at the start, and that will have an effect, but it still looks like Ukraine can move at will at night, and certainly doesn't appear to be hindered during the day east of the Dnieper, and as Ukraine gets more SAM systems, and Russian losses continue to mount, then its doubtful the Russian Air Force is having the success that is claimed (well, not doubtful, more impossible)

Interesting to note that the map they used in the briefing wasn't massively out, which shows they know full well that everyone knows where they are, and I wonder if the reality rather than the fantasy reporting will be there in the future

Essentially, no one knows better than the Russians about the dangers of battlefield losses not being reporting accurately up the chain of command, so maybe they are re learning the lessons of WWII quickly?

Hipper · Post by **Hipper** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 9:33 am

Vegas Claret wrote: ↑
Fri Mar 25, 2022 8:02 pm
how they are keeping in such good spirits is beyond me. Truly fabulous people and an example to everyone

My mother was Dutch and was in occupied Holland in WW2. She used to tell me all sorts of stories which, in the comfort of a non war situation, seemed brave, stupid or just down right dangerous, but in the situation they were in, helped keep up spirits. Tiny victories, meaningless in themselves, increased morale no end.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 9:39 am

Hipper wrote: ↑
Sat Mar 26, 2022 9:33 am
My mother was Dutch and was in occupied Holland in WW2. She used to tell me all sorts of stories which, in the comfort of a non war situation, seemed brave, stupid or just down right dangerous, but in the situation they were in, helped keep up spirits. Tiny victories, meaningless in themselves, increased morale no end.

One thing I always took with a huge pinch of salt was all the stories about "wartime spirit"

I don't anymore, seeing a month of ridiculously cheerful Ukrainians (considering what is happening) is a proper eye opener

Hipper · Post by **Hipper** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 9:42 am

bfcjg wrote: ↑
Fri Mar 25, 2022 8:29 pm
https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war- ... t-12575013
Quite an interesting take on the sanctions against Russia.

We are a global world and that is why sanctions, if properly target and actually implemented by all parties, can destroy a country.

The UK has always been vulnerable to this, especially as we could never feed ourselves. We have always been interested in global networks and it suits us, both for trade and finance for it to continue as it is.

Russia has entangled itself with the world economy but the world has now turned against them. The global economy is now being used as a weapon against them. I'm sure if Russia, more accurately the Putin mob, survive all this, they will revise their economic stance, as might other countries who think they might feel the wrath of the western economic arrangements. It could radically change the global economy.

Interesting but dangerous times.

Colburn_Claret · Post by **Colburn_Claret** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 9:46 am

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Sat Mar 26, 2022 9:39 am
One thing I always took with a huge pinch of salt was all the stories about "wartime spirit"

I don't anymore, seeing a month of ridiculously cheerful Ukrainians (considering what is happening) is a proper eye opener

Shared adversity draws people together like nothing else.
Londoners during the blitz most poignant, just because it was US, but I'm sure it will have been repeated in every conflict in history. The Russians themselves at Stalingrad. The feeling of injustice is something the Russians would understand, if only they were given the truth about Putins 'operation'.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 9:54 am

REUTERS: Iran EU agreement over nuclear power close.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1507 ... UreGzoAg9A

It seems Iran is now coming in from the cold.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 9:56 am

NEXTA: Spartak Moscow owner Fedun, admits he’s lost 99% of his fortune.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... Cf9lmqUMaQ

Hipper · Post by **Hipper** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 10:00 am

I don't see the statement from Russia about the phases of war as significant in the real world. I see it just as an explanation to Russians. The only way we can tell what the Russians are up to is by their actions on the ground and perhaps, in the higher echelons of the military, what they hear from intelligence or political activity.

I think we should keep telling ourselves this is not a Russian war but one of the Putin Mafia, protecting their interests. That's why attacking his supporters with sanctions etc. may well have a big effect if they think they will permanently lose their wealth and status. For the moment it seems, there are still places they can go - witness the movements of those super yachts - but we must try and close as many of those loopholes as we can.

If they can be convinced that Putin cannot support their current lifestyles they might remove him. Sure he'll be replaced with another crook but one who will be more pragmatic.

I can't see though that we will all return to how it was before the invasion. Wealthy people will think twice about investing as they do now and will look for other ways to protect their status. This will affect the economies of the UK and other western countries, as they seem to have placed a lot their wealth here, maybe for the better but I'm not sure.

Hipper · Post by **Hipper** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 10:03 am

elwaclaret wrote: ↑
Sat Mar 26, 2022 9:54 am
REUTERS: Iran EU agreement over nuclear power close.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1507 ... UreGzoAg9A

It seems Iran is now coming in from the cold.

Oil!

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 10:31 am

REUTERS: President Zelenskiy calls on energy producers to hike output.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1507 ... PEU7d7GKcw

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 10:50 am

NEXTA: High level Ukrainian/US Conference to co-ordinate next steps and further help

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... 537_aPd-2A

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 11:06 am

NEXTA: Ukraine Intelligence report Russian tank commander of the the 13th Tank Regiment of the 4th Tank Division has committed suicide.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... 0bmY-0GkBw

bfcjg · Post by **bfcjg** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 11:10 am

: FOxNCt7WUAUOZ5g.jpeg.jpg (37.03 KiB) Viewed 3117 times

Reading the recent Twitter feed this picture jumped out.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 11:11 am

Ukraine Independent: Ukraine FM calls out French companies still trading with Russia.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... yI4e15pJqg

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 11:15 am

REUTERS: 10 Humanitarian corridors agreed to front line areas

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1507 ... gZDtviTUKQ

The usual Russian tactic when a severe re-organisation is needed, sceptics may assume.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 11:17 am

NEXTA: Ariel shot of Mariupol today

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... cH0INTq7kA

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 11:30 am

elwaclaret wrote: ↑
Sat Mar 26, 2022 11:15 am
REUTERS: 10 Humanitarian corridors agreed to front line areas

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1507 ... gZDtviTUKQ

The usual Russian tactic when a severe re-organisation is needed, sceptics may assume.

Or that they will just shell them, as they have done before and did in Syria

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 11:57 am

Phillips OBrian - strategy thread update

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... AU42U931PA

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 12:06 pm

Kyiv Independent report Slavutych Mayor kidnapped close to Chernobyl, but ten minutes later update he has been released following actions by Ukrainian activists

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... fSijgQPf4g

CoolClaret · Post by **CoolClaret** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 12:26 pm

I posted early on in this thread about how I believed the Russians may struggle fighting a motivated and trained defence force once I found out that they had conscripts fighting and also the culture of extreme hazing that is present in the Russian army.

https://www.vice.com/en/article/gqdx44/full-v13n4

The article above lays it out in greater detail - really troubling stuff.

Can kinda of understand why they are abandoning gear and even killing their COs as we saw yesterday or the day before.

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 2:01 pm

CoolClaret wrote: ↑
Sat Mar 26, 2022 12:26 pm
I posted early on in this thread about how I believed the Russians may struggle fighting a motivated and trained defence force once I found out that they had conscripts fighting and also the culture of extreme hazing that is present in the Russian army.

https://www.vice.com/en/article/gqdx44/full-v13n4

The article above lays it out in greater detail - really troubling stuff.

Can kinda of understand why they are abandoning gear and even killing their COs as we saw yesterday or the day before.

jesus

Lowbankclaret · Post by **Lowbankclaret** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 2:30 pm

CoolClaret wrote: ↑
Sat Mar 26, 2022 12:26 pm
I posted early on in this thread about how I believed the Russians may struggle fighting a motivated and trained defence force once I found out that they had conscripts fighting and also the culture of extreme hazing that is present in the Russian army.

https://www.vice.com/en/article/gqdx44/full-v13n4

The article above lays it out in greater detail - really troubling stuff.

Can kinda of understand why they are abandoning gear and even killing their COs as we saw yesterday or the day before.

There are something you just wish you hadn’t read.

No wonder they officers with tanks!

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 3:06 pm

Caddick- Adams - “One of those heart attacks” reaction to news as to why Russian Defence Minister Shoigu has not been seen since mid-March

https://twitter.com/militaryhistori/sta ... 70GfNULZdw

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 3:08 pm

NEXTA: “No to War” is now officially interpreted as Nazism within Russia.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... Pdtb97JWEQ

ecc · Post by **ecc** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 3:27 pm

Sorry but can't see anything about the Russians announcing their dead and wounded.

Whilst 1,351 killed is clearly not true it is a very significant public admission for their "Special Operation".

Why do people think they decided to announce the figures (irrespective of their lack of veracity)?

NewClaret · Post by **NewClaret** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 4:12 pm

Sounds like Lviv has been badly hit today

Lowbankclaret · Post by **Lowbankclaret** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 4:26 pm

ecc wrote: ↑
Sat Mar 26, 2022 3:27 pm
Sorry but can't see anything about the Russians announcing their dead and wounded.

Whilst 1,351 killed is clearly not true it is a very significant public admission for their "Special Operation".

Why do people think they decided to announce the figures (irrespective of their lack of veracity)?

It’s a guess to be fair.
But I would think there will be rumours getting back to Russia.
Lots of Russians have fled Russia to go to Finland and Turkey.
They will be getting western news and numbers and are likeLy to be ringing friends back home and discussing it.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 4:48 pm

NEXTA: British intelligence March 26 Map of situation in Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... qjj7YVMjEA

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 5:00 pm

REUTERS: EXXON looking at options to exit Russian supplies

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1507 ... 9dskfHsVqA

jos · Post by **jos** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 5:06 pm

Apologies if already mentioned,

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu had a heart attack. Therefore, he has not appeared at official events since mid-March,” writes Anton Gerashchenko, adviser to the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/alexandruc4/status/ ... 18851?s=21

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 5:18 pm

jos wrote: ↑
Sat Mar 26, 2022 5:06 pm
Apologies if already mentioned,

Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu had a heart attack. Therefore, he has not appeared at official events since mid-March,” writes Anton Gerashchenko, adviser to the head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/alexandruc4/status/ ... 18851?s=21

Or as Peter Caddick-Adams put it:- “one of those heart attacks”

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 5:19 pm

Kyiv Independent - Lviv under attack

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... nkZ7M2-Lwg

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... r-3gOnqO1g

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 5:23 pm

BBC World Service - Paranoia about ‘red lights’ and painted arrows being signals from Russian saboteurs.

https://twitter.com/bbcworld/status/150 ... alqdPsSi_g

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 5:24 pm

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... t-march-25

ISW summary

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 5:25 pm

OSINTtechnical - Russia footage demonstrating they are still relying on unloaded communications systems.

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... oD2p5W5CRQ

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 5:28 pm

BBC WORLD NEWS - Another Russian General killed in Ukraine - it is thought poor moral in the ranks is forcing the top brass to move into harms way.

https://twitter.com/bbcworld/status/150 ... qMl6XRgf1g

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 5:32 pm

NEXTA: Belarusian Ukrainian Volunteers show off Russian destroyed equipment

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... F_ZzUAZTWQ

AlargeClaret · Post by **AlargeClaret** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 5:39 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Fri Mar 25, 2022 1:39 pm
Not necessarily countries, more the people in those countries who were happy to take Putins money to spout stuff that would damage the Western alliance

And the horrendous cost of living crisis is going to make it hard for Western countries to prioritise, especially if it turns into a slog fest

But I am relatively comfortable that the EU/UK/NATO/AUS/JAPAN etc will remain united v Russia

Still think the key could be China, but it doesn't have to do a right lot now and Russia is falling over itself to sell them discounted oil and gas

Interesting ,though I feel the whole media seems to be right behind UKR with a refreshing lack of point scoring .And yes China are a huge key in this , not quite as matey with RUS as many seem to think , but cheap oil and gas are huge plays no doubt about it . I’m naively hoping Zelensky will hand over Donbas region and Putin can claim “ victory “ while UKR stays neutral but leans to the west in future .

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 6:23 pm

AlargeClaret wrote: ↑
Sat Mar 26, 2022 5:39 pm
Interesting ,though I feel the whole media seems to be right behind UKR with a refreshing lack of point scoring .And yes China are a huge key in this , not quite as matey with RUS as many seem to think , but cheap oil and gas are huge plays no doubt about it . I’m naively hoping Zelensky will hand over Donbas region and Putin can claim “ victory “ while UKR stays neutral but leans to the west in future .

Not sure it will last though with the media

The cost of living thing will (rightly btw) be huge and could get a lot worse

There has to be someway out for both sides here, and hopefully they can find it

Hipper · Post by **Hipper** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 6:25 pm

ecc wrote: ↑
Sat Mar 26, 2022 3:27 pm
Sorry but can't see anything about the Russians announcing their dead and wounded.

Whilst 1,351 killed is clearly not true it is a very significant public admission for their "Special Operation".

Why do people think they decided to announce the figures (irrespective of their lack of veracity)?

Pro-Kremlin tabloid Komsomolskaya Pravda reported and quickly deleted an article on March 22 citing the Russian Defense Ministry that 9,861 Russian soldiers have been killed and 16,153 have been wounded in Ukraine.[26] Komsomolskaya Pravda claimed that hackers posted the “fake news,” and Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov declined to comment on the initial report.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... -update-19

About one third of the way down.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 6:31 pm

NEW YORK TIMES: Biden tells Poland (Putin) “This man cannot remain in power”

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1507 ... TsZUb7ypFA

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 6:52 pm

Kyiv Independent - shelling across Kiev Oblast region

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... daV6yAdDbA

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 6:54 pm

Prof. Alice Roberts retweet - Britain backs Ukraine, outside the Ukrainian embassy in London, today

https://twitter.com/ukremblondon/status ... 5ZQ9k2y8_Q

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 6:59 pm

OTHER NEWS: BBC World Service - P&O Ferry Detained in Ireland over crew training concerns.

https://twitter.com/bbcnwt/status/15077 ... imF_Ca6RxA

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sat Mar 26, 2022 7:03 pm

Phillips OBrian - Russian MP further offensives… “and after that they invade Mars!”

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... wzbpC6SvKg