Russia Invades

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 2:50 pm

bpgburn wrote: ↑
Tue Mar 29, 2022 2:47 pm
Butter is much better for you nowadays

Love it

- found out my auto-spell is also to blame for replacing Caddick with Craddock, something I was really beating myself up about earlier in the thread… it wasn’t me!

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 2:54 pm

Hipper wrote: ↑
Tue Mar 29, 2022 2:46 pm
In the latest ISW report:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... t-march-28

they assume that the Russians haven't abandoned their efforts on Kviv but are 'reconstituting' their forces, moving some units out and replacing with others.

Whatever the truth, I assume any activities like this - basically movement - leaves them exposed to attack by Ukrainian forces, if the Ukraines have them.

If they are pulling out regular Russian troops, and replacing them with barely trained LNR/DNR conscripts, then that is a recipe for disaster

I imagine (probably accurately) that the Russians are gambling on Ukraine being unwilling to attack into Russia, but will stop at the border

But I just can't see how they can hold on to what they have in the North

And if they are going for the concentrated mass of troops, to try and get a massive local superiority, then that is going to be really obvious and no chance of being a surprise

Watch this space!

Hipper · Post by **Hipper** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 2:57 pm

For those like me who don't know what NLAW is:

https://www.military-today.com/missiles/nlaw.htm

Also check the images at the bottom - click to enlarge one of them then click the arrows on the image to run through them all. You'll see how the missile 'lights up' at a safe distance from the firer. 20 metres is the diameter of a football centre circle.

Hipper · Post by **Hipper** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 2:59 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Tue Mar 29, 2022 2:54 pm
If they are pulling out regular Russian troops, and replacing them with barely trained LNR/DNR conscripts, then that is a recipe for disaster

I imagine (probably accurately) that the Russians are gambling on Ukraine being unwilling to attack into Russia, but will stop at the border

But I just can't see how they can hold on to what they have in the North

And if they are going for the concentrated mass of troops, to try and get a massive local superiority, then that is going to be really obvious and no chance of being a surprise

Watch this space!

I'd love there to be some sort of rout where the Russians are chased out of Ukraine leaving their kit behind. Don't suppose it will happen, or be allowed to happen without some sort of Russian escalation.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 3:04 pm

Hipper wrote: ↑
Tue Mar 29, 2022 2:59 pm
I'd love there to be some sort of rout where the Russians are chased out of Ukraine leaving their kit behind. Don't suppose it will happen, or be allowed to happen without some sort of Russian escalation.

I think if it gets to that stage, and Russia decides to escalate, and the Russians allow Putin to escalate, then the consequences for Russia are incrediably grave

They don't need to be anywhere near Kyi'v, Sumy, Kharki'v if they are concentrating on the south

It would actually make more sense for them to withdraw back to the border

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 4:00 pm

https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/sta ... 7913736195

The Battle of Kyi'v is over

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 4:00 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Tue Mar 29, 2022 4:00 pm
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/sta ... 7913736195

The Battle of Kyi'v is over

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 4:05 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑
Tue Mar 29, 2022 9:54 am
Two Czechia Saab Gripens

Lads, the way the mil stuff works is VERY often only one of a "flight" will show. So say the tracker show the 2 Gripens (look at how far apart they are) then I will all but guarantee there will be at least another 1 not showing alongside the one that does (I would suggest 4 Gripens up in 2 pairs). We get loads of movements into Nellis Air Force Base and the tracker might show one (either as a correct identifier or an unknown) aircraft and there could easily be a flight of 6-10. The skies above Europe are absolutely hammered at the moment and that is for certain.

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 4:08 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Tue Mar 29, 2022 4:00 pm

interesting development and as he says puts Ukraine in a very strong negotiating position - hope it's true

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 4:15 pm

ELINT NEWS- The head of European based US forces states Russia has employed multiple hypersonic shells at Ukrainian military targets.

https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status ... 5FnzAN3_rA

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 4:17 pm

Kyiv Independent - Johnson assures Ukraine this ceasefire will not be enough to make the west tone down sanctions on Russia.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... f7CnMxegpA

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 4:21 pm

NEW YORK TIMES - Attacks continues despite peace talks, a local government building was attacked in Mykolayiv leaving 11 government officials trapped in the rubble.

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1508 ... uGIKWIYz0w

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 4:26 pm

ELINT retweet - Situation in Ukraine 29th March

https://twitter.com/coupsure/status/150 ... 5vnRekJVmQ

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 4:31 pm

Kyiv Independent - Blinken, no sign Russian peace talks are genuine “there is what Russia says, and what Russia does” (surely not the first to doubt Russian integrity in this)

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... zjzDrjhPhQ

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 4:32 pm

US General says 70%-75% of Russian total army in Ukraine

I mean, they are now massively over extended on just one part of their huge border

They have to make peace here, they really have no choice

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1 ... 1033337857

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 4:37 pm

Phillips OBrien - Mulls over Lancaster’s post immediately above -‘remarkable’

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... a_yh4sWtDA

Lowbankclaret · Post by **Lowbankclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 4:41 pm

Vegas Claret wrote: ↑
Tue Mar 29, 2022 4:05 pm
Lads, the way the mil stuff works is VERY often only one of a "flight" will show. So say the tracker show the 2 Gripens (look at how far apart they are) then I will all but guarantee there will be at least another 1 not showing alongside the one that does (I would suggest 4 Gripens up in 2 pairs). We get loads of movements into Nellis Air Force Base and the tracker might show one (either as a correct identifier or an unknown) aircraft and there could easily be a flight of 6-10. The skies above Europe are absolutely hammered at the moment and that is for certain.

That’s a very good and valid point, I don’t think I have seen fighter planes flying in singles. Didn’t even think of of it to be fair.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 4:44 pm

Kyiv Independent - fuel depot in Khmelnytskyi Oblast targeted

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... TzieqyZa1Q

Lowbankclaret · Post by **Lowbankclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 4:49 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Tue Mar 29, 2022 4:00 pm
https://twitter.com/PhillipsPOBrien/sta ... 7913736195

The Battle of Kyi'v is over

When it was announced I did mention I thought this would be the case. Just carrying on with what they were doing looked like it would cost them them up to 50% of the troops sent to Ukraine if this carried on for another 8 weeks.

When this kicked of we banded figures around.

Russia in Afghanistan had 1 soldier to 9 Afghans and they lost.

In Ukraine they had 1 soldier to 142 Ukrainians.

The numbers game said they could not win.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 5:00 pm

ROB LEE - another DNR ATGM strike at a (supposedly) Ukrainian defence position

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1508 ... GaF_6YfiLg

And another…

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1508 ... A_anowZ4kA

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 5:03 pm

ROB LEE - EU Diplomatic expulsions of Russians gathers pace.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1508 ... 5Puce0byiA

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 5:05 pm

Rob LEE - reminds us Columbia were among the first to react to growing Russian spying back in December

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1343 ... QbzJMXf2bQ

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 5:07 pm

NEXTA - De-escalation of fighting in the North is not a ceasefire, Medinskiy

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... u84NESZRmQ

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 5:12 pm

Garry KASPAROV - Change in Russian position should be net with increased pressure from the West, not decreased pressure.

https://twitter.com/kasparov63/status/1 ... RMYK577eJg

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 5:15 pm

ROB LEE - Russian Central commander hand out war medals, covered in body armour not supplied to the troops on the ground.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1508 ... wuIUoR3nWA

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 5:17 pm

REUTERS - Defence of villages around Kyiv needs to be remembered by the ‘big histories’ of the future.

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1508 ... fABxTT7Z4A

Gerry Hattrick · Post by **Gerry Hattrick** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 5:20 pm

AfteLowbankclaret wrote: ↑
Tue Mar 29, 2022 12:04 pm
I cannot find all military stuff on Flightradar24, how did you find that??

cbx750 wrote: ↑
Tue Mar 29, 2022 12:14 pm
Put your cursor over the plane and it will show the call sign, RAF are usually RR followed by a number or sometimes the tankers are Kayak. USAF have names like Large25 for tankers or Duke for helicopters.

Hi again Lowbank,
Having found a flight you may be interested in on FR24 as cbx750 has explained, you can then ‘isolate’ it (clear the screen of all other flights) by clicking the ‘Filter’ icon at the bottom and then typing the call sign or registration in the panel that appears. I find it better to do this.

Actually, three B52s departed Fairford this morning. The third one, 61-0039 is currently over Norway. The URL I mentioned last week, https://ffdmovements.blogspot.com/ is worth a look at.

Oh, and on a lighter side of military flights, did anyone else notice last Saturday that if Mr Prez’s plane, - which wasn’t using the Air Force One c/s – followed by a C32 which had been behind him previously from Brussells to Rzescow hadn’t thrown a left over Clay Cross, just over 5 minutes later he would have been able to look out of a port side window and get a good view of t’Turf. That would have made his trip worthwhile.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 5:21 pm

Kyiv Independent - Russian Kamaz Typhoon, ambush protected vehicles among those knocked out by Ukrainian forces

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... oKvOXKgcIg

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 5:24 pm

ROB LEE - Russia captures Ukrainian missiles around Kherson.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1508 ... BDLiGae4jw

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 5:29 pm

OTHER NEWS (BBC) - Max Moseley, F1 main player and youngest son of Fascist Black shirt leader Oswald Moseley committed suicide by shooting himself after he was given a ‘terminal cancer’ diagnosis.

https://twitter.com/bbcnews/status/1508 ... GNziGVk3ig

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 5:33 pm

NEW YORK TIMES - Ukrainian Volunteers are doused in Holy Water at the conclusion of training, before being sent to the lines/

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1508 ... 3NScT9oV5w

Lowbankclaret · Post by **Lowbankclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 5:33 pm

Gerry Hattrick wrote: ↑
Tue Mar 29, 2022 5:20 pm
AfteLowbankclaret wrote: ↑
Tue Mar 29, 2022 12:04 pm
I cannot find all military stuff on Flightradar24, how did you find that??

cbx750 wrote: ↑
Tue Mar 29, 2022 12:14 pm
Put your cursor over the plane and it will show the call sign, RAF are usually RR followed by a number or sometimes the tankers are Kayak. USAF have names like Large25 for tankers or Duke for helicopters.

Hi again Lowbank,
Having found a flight you may be interested in on FR24 as cbx750 has explained, you can then ‘isolate’ it (clear the screen of all other flights) by clicking the ‘Filter’ icon at the bottom and then typing the call sign or registration in the panel that appears. I find it better to do this.

Actually, three B52s departed Fairford this morning. The third one, 61-0039 is currently over Norway. The URL I mentioned last week, https://ffdmovements.blogspot.com/ is worth a look at.

Oh, and on a lighter side of military flights, did anyone else notice last Saturday that if Mr Prez’s plane, - which wasn’t using the Air Force One c/s – followed by a C32 which had been behind him previously from Brussells to Rzescow hadn’t thrown a left over Clay Cross, just over 5 minutes later he would have been able to look out of a port side window and get a good view of t’Turf. That would have made his trip worthwhile.

Thank you and that’s a good spot.

Elbarad · Post by **Elbarad** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 5:34 pm

I don't see any reason why the Ukrainians would allow these troops pulling back from Kviv to do so unhindered. And I don't believe they will. Anything they pull from this front will show up at another and they know it. I'd love to see those trains take a pounding.

GodIsADeeJay81 · Post by **GodIsADeeJay81** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 5:42 pm

Russia 'considers switch from UEFA to Asian federation' https://mol.im/a/10662709 via https://dailym.ai/android

This is interesting, they're thinking about ditching Uefa and joining AFC.

One thing they say is they cannot compete/be competitive in Uefa Champions League

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 5:42 pm

BBC - Was the Dairy shooting of Russian prisoners staged or a war atrocity - pros/cons; further investigation required say experts unwilling to commit whether Ukrinian/separatists/Russian propaganda who involved amid contradictory evidence.

https://twitter.com/bbcnews/status/1508 ... KcbsAqRCPw

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 5:48 pm

NEXTA - Polish begin process of making Russian coal imports illegal

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... 0x3It3xrjg

ecc · Post by **ecc** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 5:59 pm

I wouldn't trust anything Putin says.

Lowbankclaret · Post by **Lowbankclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 6:18 pm

ecc wrote: ↑
Tue Mar 29, 2022 5:59 pm
I wouldn't trust anything Putin says.

None of us would.

But I think we have tried to provide evidence he cannot move forward on all fronts.

Committed 70-75% of his forces into Ukraine.

Out of 150,000 troops he has lost 30,000 to injury or death.

Hugh amounts of equipment, 2060 confirmed, estimated 4000. Probably 20% of his equipment.

If you continue to do the same thing and expect a different result, your going to be disappointed.

4 more weeks fighting like this, just doubles Russias losses.

The Russian army are then n a whole world of pain, just as long as we keep sending munitions.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 6:33 pm

NEXTA - Russian Servicemen kidnap Head of Ukraine’s National Union of Journalists in Zaporozhye

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... hL3eJTAQow

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 6:53 pm

ROB LEE : Ukrainian forces use quiet time to dig out trapped Russian tanks

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1508 ... Xr2gWnINMg

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 6:55 pm

ROB LEE - Russian MoD footage of Helicopter strikes

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1508 ... pHNtkGg5AA

Vegas Claret · Post by **Vegas Claret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 7:03 pm

Gerry Hattrick wrote: ↑
Tue Mar 29, 2022 5:20 pm
did anyone else notice last Saturday that if Mr Prez’s plane, - which wasn’t using the Air Force One c/s

would have been the spare, both aircraft always go. Only ever AF1 when the President is on board. My guess was this used a SAM callsign

ecc · Post by **ecc** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 7:31 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑
Tue Mar 29, 2022 6:18 pm
None of us would.

But I think we have tried to provide evidence he cannot move forward on all fronts.

Committed 70-75% of his forces into Ukraine.

Out of 150,000 troops he has lost 30,000 to injury or death.

Hugh amounts of equipment, 2060 confirmed, estimated 4000. Probably 20% of his equipment.

If you continue to do the same thing and expect a different result, your going to be disappointed.

4 more weeks fighting like this, just doubles Russias losses.

The Russian army are then n a whole world of pain, just as long as we keep sending munitions.

Hi Lowbank,

Putting aside, if one can, his folly and evil mentality, yes, it would be a logical move. I haven't got a clue whether his generals dare make suggestions and/or whether he listens to them, but the Russians have to change tactics or risk getting hammered in many parts of Ukraine.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 7:34 pm

NEXTA- Russian withdrawal from the North is a result of lack of support being offered by a reluctant Belarus

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/150 ... dobp258Xsw

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 7:36 pm

ROB LEE: Russian LC Igor Zharov, killed in Ukraine

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1508 ... Nx8qo4BVVA

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 7:40 pm

OSINTtechnical - Belgorod in Russia sees a huge explosion across the border from Kharkiv

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... to4Z8-FPkg

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 7:45 pm

Al Murray retweet of another report of the explosion in Russia, saboteurs or poor care with munitions among the possible other explanations - like cross border rocket fire are all being suggested as possibilities

https://twitter.com/twlldun/status/1508 ... 5BGjXlEwtA

Lowbankclaret · Post by **Lowbankclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 7:47 pm

ecc wrote: ↑
Tue Mar 29, 2022 7:31 pm
Hi Lowbank,

Putting aside, if one can, his folly and evil mentality, yes, it would be a logical move. I haven't got a clue whether his generals dare make suggestions and/or whether he listens to them, but the Russians have to change tactics or risk getting hammered in many parts of Ukraine.

Don’t you think it’s interesting that sane people who are watching it from afar can see that.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 7:48 pm

NEW YORK TIMES - Rape and sexual violence endemic in Russian invasion claims Ukrainian lawyer; in a distant echo of similar atrocities emanating from Russian payback towards the close of WW2.

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1508 ... 7S_xGGwJ-Q

Vino blanco · Post by **Vino blanco** » Tue Mar 29, 2022 7:52 pm

elwaclaret wrote: ↑
Tue Mar 29, 2022 7:45 pm
Al Murray retweet of another report of the explosion in Russia, saboteurs or poor care with munitions among the possible other explanations - like cross border rocket fire are all being suggested as possibilities

https://twitter.com/twlldun/status/1508 ... 5BGjXlEwtA

Russian TV news is reporting it as their troops celebrating their victory with a firework display.