Russia Invades

[elwaclaret]

THE ECONOMIST: Sir Andrew Roberts looks at the Russia claim that NATO expansion caused Russian invasion, and explains why the argument is so flawed.

https://twitter.com/theeconomist/status ... AEnGXunV6g

[elwaclaret]

OSINTtechncal - Slovakia gives S-300 air defence system to Ukraine

https://twitter.com/osinttechnical/stat ... AEnGXunV6g

[Lowbankclaret]

Estimated losses so far.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... 31bG0gF3rA

If they have lost around 19,000 troops, analysts state they will have around 50-60 thousand of injured.

[Elbarad]

So, looking back at the last couple of days worth of posts I have a genuine question for people here. Disregarding totally whether videos are faked, edited, anything you want to nit pick about. Is shooting a mortally wounded opponent a war crime? Serious question that I don't know the answer to. I can see it as a mercy shot, to put someone out of misery. I can also imagine that the rules of war require you to treat badly wounded opponents. But then I can't imagine the Ukrainians air lifting a Russian prisoner out considering the air advantage the Russians have.

Again, I'm legitimately asking this question. I don't know if the videos I've seen that generated the thought in my head are real, edited or indicative of policy from either side.

[Vegas Claret]

NEXTA: Russian target busy train station full of civilians in Kramatorsk.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/151 ... AEnGXunV6g

(The EU are pushing for more sanctions as a result of this appalling strike)

further proof the response from the West isn't working effectively for the here and now. Running scared from a bully will never be a good look

[ecc]

NEXTA: Russian target busy train station full of civilians in Kramatorsk.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/151 ... AEnGXunV6g

(The EU are pushing for more sanctions as a result of this appalling strike)

Oh dear God.

To quote Primo Levi, who survived Auschwitz:

"If this is a man"

[box_of_frogs]

Is shooting a mortally wounded opponent a war crime?

Yes. End of.

[Lowbankclaret]

Yes. End of.

When I was young teenager I looked after old guys chickens and parrots when he went abroad each year to go visit war graves of his fallen friends from the Second World War.
I once talked to him about war after watching a film.
He got real serious and gave me a stern talking to.
He told me one day they were going to have to retreat quickly but the seriously wounded would be left. He said his friend was fatally wounded and there were rumours the Germans would torture the wounded who were left. His friend begged him to finish him off to save him from that. Was that a war crime? If we assume it was true and not just a story.
He was in the Grenadier Guards and they did have to retreat in France according to their history, he also served in North Africa.
He told me in no uncertain terms never think there is glory in war.

[Lowbankclaret]

So, looking back at the last couple of days worth of posts I have a genuine question for people here. Disregarding totally whether videos are faked, edited, anything you want to nit pick about. Is shooting a mortally wounded opponent a war crime? Serious question that I don't know the answer to. I can see it as a mercy shot, to put someone out of misery. I can also imagine that the rules of war require you to treat badly wounded opponents. But then I can't imagine the Ukrainians air lifting a Russian prisoner out considering the air advantage the Russians have.

Again, I'm legitimately asking this question. I don't know if the videos I've seen that generated the thought in my head are real, edited or indicative of policy from either side.

No matter what we want to call it, it’s not allowed to shoot anyone once disarmed. It is a war crime.

I don’t think anyone is being airlifted on the Ukrainians side. Link says they should be treated with medical care.

https://ihl-databases.icrc.org/customar ... ul_rule110

[Elbarad]

Yeah I've been looking too and it seems there's no allowance for ending suffering. Probably a good thing to remove all ambiguity about motive. Simply no attacking incapacitated foes is clear and simply to follow.

[Lowbankclaret]

Yeah I've been looking too and it seems there's no allowance for ending suffering. Probably a good thing to remove all ambiguity about motive. Simply no attacking incapacitated foes is clear and simply to follow.

And to be fair your not supposed to fire on civilians . The train station being a point in question is also a war crime.

I just wish we could do more.

[Elbarad]

Yeah, no excuse for that to be sure.

[Vegas Claret]

I just wish we could do more.

we could, but are choosing not to. I'll re-iterate what I said the other day. Putin said if there was any attack on Russia then all hell would be unleashed - well the Ukrainians destroyed the fuel depot and there was no response. Does anyone really honestly think that Putin has half the stuff he says he does and that at this stage, with a huge chunk of his forces depleted, would launch an attack against the West ? no chance. I'm disgusted at the response from the West

[Lowbankclaret]

we could, but are choosing not to. I'll re-iterate what I said the other day. Putin said if there was any attack on Russia then all hell would be unleashed - well the Ukrainians destroyed the fuel depot and there was no response. Does anyone really honestly think that Putin has half the stuff he says he does and that at this stage, with a huge chunk of his forces depleted, would launch an attack against the West ? no chance. I'm disgusted at the response from the West

Yes I get it, we talked about it in our group before the game Wednesday . Couple of people were like let’s go in conventionally as he will not escalate
Others were he will go nuclear.

It’s a big gamble to take.

His conventional army is just about ******.

[Aclaret]

In a conventional war, NATO would I imagine, wipe the floor with Russia, Nuclear war ? Is it whoever can push the buttons the quickest ? Not so sure on that one.

[Rumpelstiltskin]

we could, but are choosing not to. I'll re-iterate what I said the other day. Putin said if there was any attack on Russia then all hell would be unleashed - well the Ukrainians destroyed the fuel depot and there was no response. Does anyone really honestly think that Putin has half the stuff he says he does and that at this stage, with a huge chunk of his forces depleted, would launch an attack against the West ? no chance. I'm disgusted at the response from the west.
Putin hates the Ukrainians as much as Hitler hated the Jews.His strategy is genocide and he is happily destroying towns,cities and villages and encouraging his troops to rape,torture and kill.
He is shrugging aside sanctions.How many civilians will die and how much of Ukraine will be razed to the ground while we dither ?
We have to do much much more.

[ecc]

Sorry if this has already been brought up before.

What do the Ukranians have in terms of anti-rocket defence systems? I was thinking yesterday about the Iron Defence system used by Israel to counter rockets sent from Gaza.

[Lowbankclaret]

In a conventional war, NATO would I imagine, wipe the floor with Russia, Nuclear war ? Is it whoever can push the buttons the quickest ? Not so sure on that one.

Based on figures, it appears Ukraine has taken out around 40% of its forces. So any conventional war with NATO is a slam dunk. As you say nukes who knows.
But it shows Putins state of mind, he went to a funeral today with a guy with a briefcase said to be Russias nuke codes. I think he is so deluded he thinks we will fire nukes at Russia. The guy is mad as a box of frogs.

[Lowbankclaret]

Sorry if this has already been brought up before.

What do the Ukranians have in terms of anti-rocket defence systems? I was thinking yesterday about the Iron Defence system used by Israel to counter rockets sent from Gaza.

Very limited I think, but they are improvising kit we have sent and finding it works in environments they were not designed for.
But the west is running out of arms to send them
Take the N-Law they love so much.

We have sent 4200, info online says the company had made 7000 before this kicked off.
We are not send all we have and even if we did they need more.

That’s why we are sending drones now, as we dare not deplete stocks of things like N-law.

[Lowbankclaret]

We all agree, but the ultimate sanction is gas.

It would cause Europe to go into recession that might take 5-10 years to get out off.

Might even cause depression like the last one. Not great.

[Aclaret]

Based on figures, it appears Ukraine has taken out around 40% of its forces. So any conventional war with NATO is a slam dunk. As you say nukes who knows.
But it shows Putins state of mind, he went to a funeral today with a guy with a briefcase said to be Russias nuke codes. I think he is so deluded he thinks we will fire nukes at Russia. The guy is mad as a box of frogs.

Perhaps the guy with the briefcase was Putin's Doc, carrying his medication, as Putin is seriously sick......well at least in the head !

[elwaclaret]

REUTERS: EU add sanctions against Sberbank boss and Putin’s daughters

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1512 ... rpjqi6PGSw

[Lowbankclaret]

Perhaps the guy with the briefcase was Putin's Doc, carrying his medication, as Putin is seriously sick......well at least in the head !

There are rumours he has cancer, I do wonder if he wanted to leave a legacy bringing Ukraine back under Russias control.
He might just have killed off Russia for good instead.

[ecc]

Thank you, Lowbank.

I don't know what stocks the Israelis have of their Iron Defence hardware but they seem very reluctant to get dragged into the war.

[Lowbankclaret]

Thank you, Lowbank.

I don't know what stocks the Israelis have of their Iron Defence hardware but they seem very reluctant to get dragged into the war.

It’s just numbers I have picked up reading loads of reports.

Kinda seems a low number now of N-law now.

But I cannot link anything that says that number is correct.
But sending drones with tech we don’t want the Russians to capture, says we are low on N-law already.

[Lowbankclaret]

They already captured N-law anti tank missiles from the Ukrainians.

[Mala591]

Those who’s bodies have been blown to smitherines, whether child, woman or man, whether Ukrainian or Russian...

...may their souls rest in peace

...and God help the rest of us if we don’t learn the lessons of this horrific nightmare situation where one psychopathic, mentally ill human being can destroy the lives of so many...

[JarrowClaret]

So, looking back at the last couple of days worth of posts I have a genuine question for people here. Disregarding totally whether videos are faked, edited, anything you want to nit pick about. Is shooting a mortally wounded opponent a war crime? Serious question that I don't know the answer to. I can see it as a mercy shot, to put someone out of misery. I can also imagine that the rules of war require you to treat badly wounded opponents. But then I can't imagine the Ukrainians air lifting a Russian prisoner out considering the air advantage the Russians have.

Again, I'm legitimately asking this question. I don't know if the videos I've seen that generated the thought in my head are real, edited or indicative of policy from either side.

It is a war crime as has been said many times by me on here Ukrainians are committing War Crimes not as bad as the Russian ones but still war crimes. They will need investigating and the Ukrainians have said they will clearly they have more important things to deal with first. The Russians on the other hand just deny or blame someone else.

[JarrowClaret]

Yeah I've been looking too and it seems there's no allowance for ending suffering. Probably a good thing to remove all ambiguity about motive. Simply no attacking incapacitated foes is clear and simply to follow.

It is simple to follow until you get caught up in the fog of war it does strange things to people when you see things that they have with there own eyes and in putties such as the train station today or Bucha you react it is human nature sadly.

[JarrowClaret]

Sorry if this has already been brought up before.

What do the Ukranians have in terms of anti-rocket defence systems? I was thinking yesterday about the Iron Defence system used by Israel to counter rockets sent from Gaza.

Very limited the Ukrainians asked for Iron Dome I think last year or the year before the Israelis said no for fear of annoying the Russians.

[JarrowClaret]

They already captured N-law anti tank missiles from the Ukrainians.

There were a number of pictures with the Russians with captured NLAWS and Javelin quite early on. I assume it will have been written into the assessment they did no doubt Thales/ Shorts in Belfast will be beavering away to replace the sticks sent of NLAW and HVM on some sort of UOR contracts.

[Vegas Claret]

give them some B2's and be done with it

[Terrier]

Haven't replied on this post up to now but my take is that the best line i have seen about this war was on another forum which said this is like a modern day auschwitz, we are on the outside looking in and doing nothing about it.
Bullies look for weakness, ours is the use of nukes by the ruskies, we can not keep backing off whilst woman and children are being raped and murdered.
Not sure on our next move but we better make it quick!
Was it over 6 million jews dead mainly because hitler hated them, for hitler replace with putin and for jews replace wit Ukrainians.

[Corky]

Someone asked what do Ukraine have by way of ground to air missiles. They did have the Russian built S300 and I noticed that Slovakia are sending over more of those systems to them and in return are getting Patriot from the Yanks. Shooting down unguided rockets however is very difficult (if indeed that is what hit the Railway Station) and I am far from convinced that even our new Sky Sabre system which is a land based version of the CAMM Sea Septor would be any good. Short range, Starstreak might be OK but rockets are fast and with Starstreak travelling at Mach4 (almost) that combined speed with the inbound rocket it is going to be incredibly difficult to hit.

[Corky]

I have also just noticed this on UKDJ - Britain will be sending an unspecified number of Mastiff heavily armoured vehicles to Ukraine, Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has confirmed.
It is understood that the vehicles will be stripped of sensitive equipment with British troops sent to a country neighbouring Ukraine to provide training.

Hopefully Mastiff 3 with all the additional armour kit. Big target mind but preferable to driving around in a pickup.

[Rumpelstiltskin]

Haven't replied on this post up to now but my take is that the best line i have seen about this war was on another forum which said this is like a modern day auschwitz, we are on the outside looking in and doing nothing about it.
Bullies look for weakness, ours is the use of nukes by the ruskies, we can not keep backing off whilst woman and children are being raped and murdered.
Not sure on our next move but we better make it quick!
Was it over 6 million jews dead mainly because hitler hated them, for hitler replace with putin and for jews replace wit Ukrainians.

This

[JarrowClaret]

I have also just noticed this on UKDJ - Britain will be sending an unspecified number of Mastiff heavily armoured vehicles to Ukraine, Defence Secretary Ben Wallace has confirmed.
It is understood that the vehicles will be stripped of sensitive equipment with British troops sent to a country neighbouring Ukraine to provide training.

Hopefully Mastiff 3 with all the additional armour kit. Big target mind but preferable to driving around in a pickup.

Or a Saxon

[JarrowClaret]

Someone asked what do Ukraine have by way of ground to air missiles. They did have the Russian built S300 and I noticed that Slovakia are sending over more of those systems to them and in return are getting Patriot from the Yanks. Shooting down unguided rockets however is very difficult (if indeed that is what hit the Railway Station) and I am far from convinced that even our new Sky Sabre system which is a land based version of the CAMM Sea Septor would be any good. Short range, Starstreak might be OK but rockets are fast and with Starstreak travelling at Mach4 (almost) that combined speed with the inbound rocket it is going to be incredibly difficult to hit.

I think the question was about rocket protection anyway patriot is a long way from being able to engage anything over central/ eastern Ukraine, it may have changed a bit recently but it needed to be set up to either engage missile type targets or aircraft it couldn’t do both. Gulf War 1 Patriot wasn’t setup correctly and couldn’t engage all the scuds correctly and didn’t have a great hit rate for example.

Sky Sabre the first thing to say on it is it is a huge upgrade on it’s predecessor Rapier FSC not only in range but in capability. It is supposed to be able to engage tennis ball type targets so whilst it is based on CAMM as you said it is also an upgraded version of that. In reality I guess nobody knows how good it is, it looks good in a brochure but until it gets tested in a combat situation it is very much a question mark. Even if it was as good as it is supposed to be the chances it will be entering Ukraine soil anytime soon is 0.

HVM is there and could happily engage a missile rocket sorry to be pedantic but it is just over Mach 3 (3.4) the missile flies at initially. As you say with 2 fast moving objects it can be very difficult to control but in this case as a missile/ rocket would likely stay on the same trajectory it may not be that much of a problem any sudden movements and then it becomes a sniper shot. The problem with HVM dot this type of thing, assuming they haven’t got the alerting device as well, the operator has to visually identify the rocket and engage it very quickly after that dependant on the size of the missile rocket the dart displacement may make it impossible or a very lucky shot to hit something that small. Possible but not a likely option to be taking on missiles in my opinion. Better off relying on there S300 etc.

[JarrowClaret]

Haven't replied on this post up to now but my take is that the best line i have seen about this war was on another forum which said this is like a modern day auschwitz, we are on the outside looking in and doing nothing about it.
Bullies look for weakness, ours is the use of nukes by the ruskies, we can not keep backing off whilst woman and children are being raped and murdered.
Not sure on our next move but we better make it quick!
Was it over 6 million jews dead mainly because hitler hated them, for hitler replace with putin and for jews replace wit Ukrainians.

I hear yah Terrier but there isn’t a simple solution to this, one wrong move and it could mean the end of the world as we know it and the death of millions upon millions of people worldwide. For me the answer has to come from within Russia itself and the west should be pushing that with every lever it has.

[Lowbankclaret]

I hear yah Terrier but there isn’t a simple solution to this, one wrong move and it could mean the end of the world as we know it and the death of millions upon millions of people worldwide. For me the answer has to come from within Russia itself and the west should be pushing that with every lever it has.

This is an interesting article written by a Russian who is in Moscow, written under a pseudonym.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... agedy.html

[JarrowClaret]

Someone asked what do Ukraine have by way of ground to air missiles. They did have the Russian built S300 and I noticed that Slovakia are sending over more of those systems to them and in return are getting Patriot from the Yanks. Shooting down unguided rockets however is very difficult (if indeed that is what hit the Railway Station) and I am far from convinced that even our new Sky Sabre system which is a land based version of the CAMM Sea Septor would be any good. Short range, Starstreak might be OK but rockets are fast and with Starstreak travelling at Mach4 (almost) that combined speed with the inbound rocket it is going to be incredibly difficult to hit.

Oops apologies miss read this earlier clearly you weren’t suggesting Sky Sabre or Patriot as options.

[JarrowClaret]

This is an interesting article written by a Russian who is in Moscow, written under a pseudonym.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... agedy.html

Interesting article Lowbank I truly feel for the average Russian person that is either oblivious to the truth as they believe what they are being told or the ones that know the truth but can’t do anything about it. I would be sick with worry about my eldest getting drafted in these circumstances like she is.

[elwaclaret]

CADDICK-ADAMS retweet - Russia’s biggest independent leaning newspaper Novaya Gazeta has ceased publication after official threats to the paper and directly against its Noble Peace prize winning editor.

https://twitter.com/robertservice00/sta ... P-Sfac2PZA

[elwaclaret]

REUTERS: EU Chairman Von Der Leyen reports back from her visit to Ukraine, yesterday… Russian Actions seem to be war crimes

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1512 ... P-Sfac2PZA

[Lowbankclaret]

Interesting article Lowbank I truly feel for the average Russian person that is either oblivious to the truth as they believe what they are being told or the ones that know the truth but can’t do anything about it. I would be sick with worry about my eldest getting drafted in these circumstances like she is.

One thing I took from the article is that some of the news must be getting through, I just saw a sky news clip from a Russian town. They knew about Bucha but obviously said it was staged. Not sure they dare do anything else to be fair to them.
I also from the article don’t see a Russian up rising anytime soon.

Ukraine are saying this morning they have 7000 Russian troops in their morgues which are going unclaimed. Possibly Russia does not want to be sending them home, probably as they don’t have to put them in official dead figures. They are Missing in action instead.

The Russian people will have a big wake up when they learn how many of their kids are dead. This not going to help Russias demographic losing thousands of young men.

[elwaclaret]

Interesting look at the Russia reorganisation of the RFA command, by a strategic analyist and author Tom Cooper (courtesy of my mate Geoff)

https://medium.com/@x_TomCooper_x/suppl ... bb674718fc

[Lowbankclaret]

That’s not good news.

[ecc]

REUTERS: EU Chairman Von Der Leyen reports back from her visit to Ukraine, yesterday… Russian Actions seem to be war crimes

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1512 ... P-Sfac2PZA

Whilst I think she should have gone earlier I can but praise her for going to Ukraine. A delegation of leaders from Poland, Slovenia and the Czech Republic went to Kiev a few weeks ago but that didn't go down too well with Brussels. Warsaw struggles to deal with the concept of the rule of law as does Ljubljana.

It would have been good to have seen Macron and/or Johnson go.

[JarrowClaret]

Whilst I think she should have gone earlier I can but praise her for going to Ukraine. A delegation of leaders from Poland, Slovenia and the Czech Republic went to Kiev a few weeks ago but that didn't go down too well with Brussels. Warsaw struggles to deal with the concept of the rule of law as does Ljubljana.

It would have been good to have seen Macron and/or Johnson go.

Err check Johnson there now

[Lowbankclaret]

Err check Johnson there now

Beat me to it?