Russia Invades

[Lowbankclaret]

Is Putin seeing enemies in every shadow, when your arresting your best advisors.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... ircle.html

[Lancasterclaret]

Welcome back, hope you had a nice holiday.

10 days of not worrying about the clarets, the UK or this bloody, pointless war was much needed

If I had a lot of money, I don't think I'd have come back to be honest

[Vegas Claret]

NEW YORK TIMES: Satellite images of large movements of Russian vehicles owing to East Ukraine

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1514 ... n8qaPQnkFw

and that is why our failure to give them long range options and aircraft is abhorrent

[Lancasterclaret]

and that is why our failure to give them long range options and aircraft is abhorrent

This is where I think we differ a bit

Russia will want Ukrainian Air or missile units trying to attack stuff that far behind the Russian lines, its what their anti air defence is practically designed for

But they have proved completely incapable of transferring that combat/logistics power onto the front lines, once they get out of Russia proper and into contested areas

Whatever analysis is done at the end of this (and pray that end is soon), the tactics of the UAF and the targeting of the supply/rear echelon areas of the Russian advance is going to be discussed for decades about how successful they have been (of course, a lot of that will be abysmal decisions by the Russians but still)

[jos]

Financial Times:-
A full EU embargo on Russian energy would trigger a major recession in Germany, sending output down 2.2% next year and wiping out more than 400,000 jobs, according to the country’s top economic institutes

https://twitter.com/financialtimes/stat ... 14916?s=21

[Lancasterclaret]

Financial Times:-
A full EU embargo on Russian energy would trigger a major recession in Germany, sending output down 2.2% next year and wiping out more than 400,000 jobs, according to the country’s top economic institutes

https://twitter.com/financialtimes/stat ... 14916?s=21

Course, you have to balance that with the effect it would have on Russia, which would be much worse and if they didn't have the daily payments for gas and oil coming in from the EU, this war would be over now.

A couple of weeks of a block would completely shaft Russia, end the war and cause (at worst) short term damage to the economies of the West

The longer this goes on, the more likely it is going to be that this will have to be done

I mean, just how many mass graves do we have to find before someone starts understanding what really matters here?

[Lowbankclaret]

10 days of not worrying about the clarets, the UK or this bloody, pointless war was much needed

If I had a lot of money, I don't think I'd have come back to be honest

We all agree it’s pointless.
Most analysts are coming to conclusions that Russia has lost around 30% of the force that invaded, no reserves left to send.

The next move is for Russia to attack from the south and north east and join up entrapping the Ukrainian army facing them in the Donbas. The thinking I have read is attacking from about where the K is in sloviansk word and the et of the work Donetsk creating a pocket of troops then surrounded, but this will leave long lines of kit that the Ukrainians can attack. Let’s see if that’s what they try. Think it would be madness but hey ho. Let’s see.

9A432B49-4995-4CB9-A248-48E13EBB4F34.jpeg (398.64 KiB) Viewed 3839 times

[Vegas Claret]

This is where I think we differ a bit

Russia will want Ukrainian Air or missile units trying to attack stuff that far behind the Russian lines, its what their anti air defence is practically designed for

But they have proved completely incapable of transferring that combat/logistics power onto the front lines, once they get out of Russia proper and into contested areas

Whatever analysis is done at the end of this (and pray that end is soon), the tactics of the UAF and the targeting of the supply/rear echelon areas of the Russian advance is going to be discussed for decades about how successful they have been (of course, a lot of that will be abysmal decisions by the Russians but still)

it's more about giving them something else to think about - let's remember, they couldn't defend the fuel depot on home soil from two crap helicopters

[Lowbankclaret]

Course, you have to balance that with the effect it would have on Russia, which would be much worse and if they didn't have the daily payments for gas and oil coming in from the EU, this war would be over now.

A couple of weeks of a block would completely shaft Russia, end the war and cause (at worst) short term damage to the economies of the West

The longer this goes on, the more likely it is going to be that this will have to be done

I mean, just how many mass graves do we have to find before someone starts understanding what really matters here?

I do wonder if the record amounts of gas passing through to Europe. In recents weeks it has literally been flat out at capacity. Is the west trying to stock up for a ban?? Or next winter. Who knows really.
Putins threat to turn it off if the west didn’t pay with Rubles has gone very quiet. West needs the gas, he needs the cash. A very sorry and sad state of affairs.

[Lancasterclaret]

We all agree it’s pointless.
Most analysts are coming to conclusions that Russia has lost around 30% of the force that invaded, no reserves left to send.

The next move is for Russia to attack from the south and north east and join up entrapping the Ukrainian army facing them in the Donbas. The thinking I have read is attacking from about where the K is in sloviansk word and the et of the work Donetsk creating a pocket of troops then surrounded, but this will leave long lines of kit that the Ukrainians can attack. Let’s see if that’s what they try. Think it would be madness but hey ho. Let’s see.

9A432B49-4995-4CB9-A248-48E13EBB4F34.jpeg

I mean, this is it in a nutshell

Ukraine are not going to sit there and get "pocketed", just like the Russians want them to. I mean, its very clear what Russia would like to do, and that it imagines that it can do, but can they actually do a combined assault on both sides (one assumes from Izyum down and from somewhere in the south up), without Ukraine noticing, or using the reserves bought down from the war its already won in the east and the north?

They didn't sit there and collapse during the first week of the war, when Russia had all its forces and a military reputation, so what on earth does Russia think it can do now?

If the Russian plan is just to bring overwhelming firepower to a smallish sector of the line (again, how they do this without Ukraine noticing is beyond fantasy but hey) and pulverise their way forward, step by step, then at least that makes some sense.

But that won't be quick, and you do think that those in charge of Russia still think there is some magic, quick solution to this that magically results in a Russian win, and there wasn't from about Day 2, or Day 7, or Day 25 or whatever day today is.

Longer it goes on, the worse this gets for Russia

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/sherillyn_raga/stat ... 8159219716

Great article on the economic vulnerability of the low/middle income nations to this war (trading relationships with both Russian and Ukraine, or either)

Course, its Belarus that takes one of the biggest hits, which again, makes you wonder just how their leader is still in charge when what he has essentially done is cripple his own countries economy because Russia told him to.

[Lancasterclaret]

Course, you have to balance that with the effect it would have on Russia, which would be much worse and if they didn't have the daily payments for gas and oil coming in from the EU, this war would be over now.

A couple of weeks of a block would completely shaft Russia, end the war and cause (at worst) short term damage to the economies of the West

The longer this goes on, the more likely it is going to be that this will have to be done

I mean, just how many mass graves do we have to find before someone starts understanding what really matters here?

This isn't having a go at the Germans, or the Austrians, or the Hungarians, or whoever

Its the realistic view now of what Russia is

It is not interested in a democratic Europe, or a Europe being made up of individual states having rights that much bigger ones have to respect, or anything remotely like that

It wants to be able to sell us stuff, take the stuff it needs from us, but not have anything to do with the rules and regulations that have made Western and Central Europe one of more secure, richest and democratic parts of the world to live in, and essentially take with its army if it can't get what it wants by any other way.

There is no place in Europe, or in European trade, or European energy security for any country that does that

(and again, to be fair, the countries that will affected the most realise that, but are trying to minimise the damage first, but its getting to the stage where this will become inevitable)

[Taffy on the wing]

Welcome back Lancaster, you were missed.

This is a good read.

https://twitter.com/ilvestoomas/status/ ... OuAlTl-CVw

Fantastic publication with a great history......Steve Jobs' Widow is the majority owner and funder.

[Taffy on the wing]

Course, you have to balance that with the effect it would have on Russia, which would be much worse and if they didn't have the daily payments for gas and oil coming in from the EU, this war would be over now.

A couple of weeks of a block would completely shaft Russia, end the war and cause (at worst) short term damage to the economies of the West

The longer this goes on, the more likely it is going to be that this will have to be done

I mean, just how many mass graves do we have to find before someone starts understanding what really matters here?

Sacrifice for the "common good"......has been replaced by me, me, me....Putin needs to be finished off while there's a chance.

[jos]

Welcome back Lancaster, you were missed.

This is a good read.

https://twitter.com/ilvestoomas/status/ ... OuAlTl-CVw

I can’t help thinking that some top brass generals in the USA are wringing their hands at this conflict, with Russia’s slowly being decimated without having to send a marine into battle.
The longer this goes on the worst it gets for Putin, granted at the expense of the Ukrainians but hey… they don’t affect the politics of USA do they!.

I hope I’m wrong.

[Lancasterclaret]

I can’t help thinking that some top brass generals in the USA are wringing their hands at this conflict, with Russia’s slowly being decimated without having to send a marine into battle.
The longer this goes on the worst it gets for Putin, granted at the expense of the Ukrainians but hey… they don’t affect the politics of USA do they!.

I hope I’m wrong.

tbh Jos, the US only realistic opponent for world hegemony is China, the regional superpowers (India, I don't think we can even fit Russia into this group anymore, Brazil, South Africa) will happily tweak the US nose and back Russia until it actually becomes something concrete, and then they won't

If Russia is knocked back (and it looks like its going to be) ,the European nations spend more on defence (and it looks like that is happening) AND NATO expands into Sweden and Finland, then this is all great for the US

Europe would be safe for a least a decade, which would mean that the US could but its resources into where it is needed to stop China doing to places like Vietnam, Indonesia, The Philippines and others what Russia has done with its neighbours

Transfers the dangers of global conflicts to areas like the South China Sea, but also to places where China wants to be dominant, but isn't, and won't be as long as the circle of US allies remains strong*

*interesting bit on the Solomon Islands signing a defence treaty with China btw, which has got the US, NZ and Aus very concerned

Basically, its cheering Ukraine on, and learning as much lessons as it can get without having a single US soldier die.

Win/Win

[jos]

I do wonder if the record amounts of gas passing through to Europe. In recents weeks it has literally been flat out at capacity. Is the west trying to stock up for a ban?? Or next winter. Who knows really.
Putins threat to turn it off if the west didn’t pay with Rubles has gone very quiet. West needs the gas, he needs the cash. A very sorry and sad state of affairs.

And as I’m sure you know and any heating engineer will tell you that unlike electricity, you can’t just turn off gas!.
Electric fails safe.
Gas fails into a dangerous state and has to be kept under pressure in order for it to remain safe, so stockpiling makes sense.
Take a look at your local Gas Storage Tank, is it high or low?
(Ps, filling these tanks are normally controlled by links to satellite’s which notify the servers and the servers open the valves that control the flow of gas to the Storage Tank, as mentioned by me earlier, management of these servers has been outsourced to our good friends the Indians) $$$$ is king.

[Lancasterclaret]

US supplies getting from the US to Ukraine in 48 hours, plus more training of Ukrainian troops on US/NATO weapons

https://twitter.com/JackDetsch/status/1 ... 1727322133

[ecc]

https://twitter.com/sherillyn_raga/stat ... 8159219716

Great article on the economic vulnerability of the low/middle income nations to this war (trading relationships with both Russian and Ukraine, or either)

Course, its Belarus that takes one of the biggest hits, which again, makes you wonder just how their leader is still in charge when what he has essentially done is cripple his own countries economy because Russia told him to.

Hi Lancaster,

Great to have you back.

I think the answer is that this individual is still in power purely because of his mate and consequently he does what he's told.

[CoolClaret]

I’m absolutely disgusted with Germany and Austria - Macron as well when he through some profanities at the President of Poland after he criticised his dealings with Putin.

https://www.jpost.com/international/article-703803

We really need to take a short term hit to get this war over ASAP.

Open up Keystone Joe Biden, lets get our energy from non rogue nations please.

Oh and India as well - abhorrent

[ecc]

Macron's not wrong about the Polish leaders.

[Taffy on the wing]

Macron is just an empty suit.......Blairesque!

[CoolClaret]

Macron's not wrong about the Polish leaders.

Doesn't matter if he is - the fact is that this appeasement of Putin right now whilst this horror show goes on is a massive stain on humanity.

The Polish President can be whatever he is or isn't but he has a valid frigging point - what the hell are you doing Macron?

[Lowbankclaret]

Doesn't matter if he is - the fact is that this appeasement of Putin right now whilst this horror show goes on is a massive stain on humanity.

The Polish President can be whatever he is or isn't but he has a valid frigging point - what the hell are you doing Macron?

He is trying to win an election against a Putin supporter. At this point say anything to win.

[Elbarad]

Report that came across a few minutes ago. Hopefully true.

Ukrainian military launched 2 Anti-ship missile Neptun at Russian navy Project 1164 Atlant cruiser Moskva near Zmeinii island, reportedly setting her on fire/causing damage - head of Odesa regional administration

[elwaclaret]

PHILLIPS-OBrien : looks at President Biden’s latest promise of aid for Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... V8gzmaD06A

[Lowbankclaret]

Report that came across a few minutes ago. Hopefully true.

Ukrainian military launched 2 Anti-ship missile Neptun at Russian navy Project 1164 Atlant cruiser Moskva near Zmeinii island, reportedly setting her on fire/causing damage - head of Odesa regional administration

To be fair we are sending Harpoon missiles, which used to be welded up at Harger Clough works which is now demolished. They are that old these missiles. Hope they still work.

[jos]

Report that came across a few minutes ago. Hopefully true.

Ukrainian military launched 2 Anti-ship missile Neptun at Russian navy Project 1164 Atlant cruiser Moskva near Zmeinii island, reportedly setting her on fire/causing damage - head of Odesa regional administration

https://twitter.com/odesaforce/status/1 ... 05762?s=21

[TsarBomba]

Russia confirming a fire onboard the Moskva because of an ammunition detonation.

Rumours that the Ukrainians discovered the Moskva can only track one target at a time, which is frankly just insane.

[JarrowClaret]

Russia confirming a fire onboard the Moskva because of an ammunition detonation.

Rumours that the Ukrainians discovered the Moskva can only track one target at a time, which is frankly just insane.

That would fit in with them apparently flying a TB2 over it to distract whilst the missiles were launched. There are strong rumours it had sunk but clearly nothing confirmed as yet

[Lancasterclaret]

More evidence, if anymore was needed, that the big Soviet era ships with masses with weapons visible on them, might not actually be terribly useful in a modern combat environment

Apparently the Russians spent £1 billion upgrading her less than five years ago, and it gets taken out by Ukraine's only Neptune anti-ship battery

NATO must be slowly shaking its head at stuff like this wondering just what else the Russians look good at and turn out to be totally crap at

[Hipper]

More on the Moskva:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-61101906

Go down a bit.

This is a superb achievement and may well force the Russian navy to operate further away from Ukraine.

Moskva translates as Moscow. To lose a ship as important as this is a big loss of prestige.

[Colburn_Claret]

Macron is just an empty suit.......Blairesque!

I think, along with Putin, he has 'little man syndrome '.

[Lancasterclaret]

That would fit in with them apparently flying a TB2 over it to distract whilst the missiles were launched. There are strong rumours it had sunk but clearly nothing confirmed as yet

If this bit is true, there is going to be some pretty remarkable drone camera footage

[NewClaret]

NEW YORK TIMES: Satellite images of large movements of Russian vehicles owing to East Ukraine

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1514 ... n8qaPQnkFw

I just cannot understand why they don’t fly some planes over and take these convoys out before they reach the East? Not sure how many planes would be required, but assuming each carry 6 missiles, can’t imagine it’s more than a couple.

[CoolClaret]

He is trying to win an election against a Putin supporter. At this point say anything to win.

Not so sure going after the Polish President will aid in that effort.

And yeah for Le Pen - I’m actually disgusted by her.

[NewClaret]

More evidence, if anymore was needed, that the big Soviet era ships with masses with weapons visible on them, might not actually be terribly useful in a modern combat environment

Apparently the Russians spent £1 billion upgrading her less than five years ago, and it gets taken out by Ukraine's only Neptune anti-ship battery

NATO must be slowly shaking its head at stuff like this wondering just what else the Russians look good at and turn out to be totally crap at

Good stuff.

I read yesterday there are about 10 Russian ships deployed in the seas around Ukraine, so that’s 10% knocked out, presumably.

£1bn upgrade eh? Money well spent.

[CoolClaret]

The infamous Red Army has certainly lost any sort of ‘respect’ for the lack of a better word that it once had.

Seems the current iteration of the Russian Federation is no different to other rogue, mineral rich nations across the Middle-East and Africa.

Little to no innovation, complete lack of care for sanctity of human life and a total disregard for their people.

Just a nation set up to benefit a tiny tiny few, at the expense of the rest.

The Wild West (East)

[elwaclaret]

I just cannot understand why they don’t fly some planes over and take these convoys out before they reach the East? Not sure how many planes would be required, but assuming each carry 6 missiles, can’t imagine it’s more than a couple.

When you look at the surveillance that Ukraine can employ, one has to suspect the Ukrainians know they will have a less risky chance as they form a traffic jam in the border areas.

This shows how they can follow ‘teams’ back to their positions - they could look what they had for breakfast if they wanted to know.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1514 ... xMXQGB56wQ

[elwaclaret]

REUTERS: Show that Russia is even now not just committing war crimes in Ukraine, New York Human Rights Watch have identified Russian involvement in the massacre of 300 Civilians in Mali

https://twitter.com/reuters/status/1514 ... xMXQGB56wQ

[elwaclaret]

ROB LEE: With more evidence of Russia’s attempts to control African politics and wealth

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1178 ... xMXQGB56wQ

[elwaclaret]

GOOD MORNING BRITAIN: Holocaust survivor Lily Ebert - passivity of holocaust must not be repeated in Ukraine, a brave and impressive woman tells it like she sees it.

https://twitter.com/gmb/status/15145138 ... xMXQGB56wQ

[elwaclaret]

ROB LEE looks at the Russian Navy and suggests it is acting on the same flawed intelligence that led to Russia being so outgunned in the North.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1514 ... xMXQGB56wQ

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1514 ... xMXQGB56wQ

[JarrowClaret]

More evidence, if anymore was needed, that the big Soviet era ships with masses with weapons visible on them, might not actually be terribly useful in a modern combat environment

Apparently the Russians spent £1 billion upgrading her less than five years ago, and it gets taken out by Ukraine's only Neptune anti-ship battery

NATO must be slowly shaking its head at stuff like this wondering just what else the Russians look good at and turn out to be totally crap at

I think the upgrade was cancelled basically it would have taken 3 years but only added 5 years on to it’s life expectancy so was deemed not worth it. The ship is about 50 years old and they have massive issues with the fire suppression systems on board so any fire is going to cause major problems.

It think it is still afloat actually and it could turn out to be just a fire rather than a hit whatever it is it clears up a bit of space for Ukraine air activity in the South if they are still capable.

[Lancasterclaret]

I think the upgrade was cancelled basically it would have taken 3 years but only added 5 years on to it’s life expectancy so was deemed not worth it. The ship is about 50 years old and they have massive issues with the fire suppression systems on board so any fire is going to cause major problems.

It think it is still afloat actually and it could turn out to be just a fire rather than a hit whatever it is it clears up a bit of space for Ukraine air activity in the South if they are still capable.

At some stage, someone is going to get a pic of it, and I'm guessing it will be a pic of a ship that will be fit only for scrap

I'm sceptical about Russian and Ukrainian claims with stuff like this, perfectly possible that the Russians are so poor at ammo handling that they might well have sunk or badly damaged two of their ships (the Saratov? in Berdyansk and now the Moskva) but also perfectly possible that the Ukrainians hit both with well planned attacks

Either way, its a very poor look for the Russians, and the loss of their biggest warship in the Black Sea

[Hipper]

I think the upgrade was cancelled basically it would have taken 3 years but only added 5 years on to it’s life expectancy so was deemed not worth it. The ship is about 50 years old and they have massive issues with the fire suppression systems on board so any fire is going to cause major problems.

It think it is still afloat actually and it could turn out to be just a fire rather than a hit whatever it is it clears up a bit of space for Ukraine air activity in the South if they are still capable.

If it is a fire (not Ukrainian action), obviously these sort of things can happen but it's interesting. It may further illustrate the general incompetence of Russian forces particularly in handling munitions - recall that the landing ship fires in Berdyansk also seems to be from ammuntion issues. I'm surprised that their navy isn't more efficient as they've been pretty active recently.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61103927

[Lancasterclaret]

If it is a fire (not Ukrainian action), obviously these sort of things can happen but it's interesting. It may further illustrate the general incompetence of Russian forces particularly in handling munitions - recall that the landing ship fires in Berdyansk also seems to be from ammuntion issues. I'm surprised that their navy isn't more efficient as they've been pretty active recently.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61103927

If they have had two ammo storage accidents in a month, then you'd expect them to have a lot of them normally, and I don't think they do

They are unlikely to admit to Ukrainian successes, but I think both are more likely to be a result of an attack than an accident, certainly the one on the Moskva

[Hipper]

It would be brilliant if it was Ukrainian action. Only a good view of the ship would tell us.

[Lancasterclaret]

It would be brilliant if it was Ukrainian action. Only a good view of the ship would tell us.

Well, not really

Its clearly been a catastrophic fire (for whatever reason) resulting in the crew being evacuated (so on board fire fighting clearly failed) and the fire has burnt itself out

My guess is that there is nothing left but the hull, with everything topside being either completely destroyed or damaged beyond repair

But we will see!

[Lancasterclaret]

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/20 ... a-pattern/

Bit on the Moskva and what she has been doing during the war, and as the title says, a pattern is very easy to detect, and that is a very, very, very, very bad thing to do when you are at war