Russia Invades

[Vegas Claret]

https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1 ... z-4KbhbiTQ

[Colburn_Claret]

Just read a report of a massive explosion at Chernobaevka Airport in Kherson, but it didn't say who is holding the airport, Russia or Ukraine, it looks close to the front line. Anyone able to enlighten me please.

[elwaclaret]

Interesting thread from a journalist with intimate knowledge of Mariupol (having fought for Ukraine there previously)

https://twitter.com/fri_skytt/status/15 ... xMXQGB56wQ

[elwaclaret]

NEW YORK TIMES: The Moskva key Russian warship ‘suffers catastrophic damage’

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1514 ... xMXQGB56wQ

[elwaclaret]

NEXTA: Sumy region under Russian bombardment again today

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/151 ... xMXQGB56wQ

[Taffy on the wing]

I think, along with Putin, he has 'little man syndrome '.

He's got Mummy issues too...

[Taffy on the wing]

When you look at the surveillance that Ukraine can employ, one has to suspect the Ukrainians know they will have a less risky chance as they form a traffic jam in the border areas.

This shows how they can follow ‘teams’ back to their positions - they could look what they had for breakfast if they wanted to know.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1514 ... xMXQGB56wQ

Must be a nightmare for soldiers in modern warfare........one minute you are hidden & the next you're toast...I'd never sleep.

[elwaclaret]

PHillips OBrien - Update on Donbas, and latest of his ongoing musings.

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... ZwNWWiGu2A

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/LMartinezABC/status ... 9421826057

Only 65 Russian BTGs in Ukraine as of today

That means that half have left, and if I had to guess, that half would be combat ineffective and has been withdrawn for rest and refit (assuming they can refit and rest them)

I'm not sure that 65 Russian BTGs are capable of hanging on to what they have now, let alone attacking anywhere

[elwaclaret]

Peter CADDOCK-ADAMS retweet: NATO patrolling Rumania, Black Sea region.

https://twitter.com/radu_pirlog/status/ ... ZwNWWiGu2A

[elwaclaret]

Kyiv Independent - Russia likely to re-introduce conscription to make up umbers

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... ZwNWWiGu2A

…and locals do not want to fight Ukraine and there are not enough Russians in North Causcasas.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... ZwNWWiGu2A

[box_of_frogs]

All I’ll say about the Moskva is “oh dear, how sad”.

Doesn’t matter if it was a “fire” or a genuine strike by Ukraine. The key thing we learnt from the Falklands is that that fires and ammunition detonation kills ships (whether sinking or just K-kill).

Massive game changer on the amphibious assault option IMHO.

[elwaclaret]

All I’ll say about the Moskva is “oh dear, how sad”.

Doesn’t matter if it was a “fire” or a genuine strike by Ukraine. The key thing we learnt from the Falklands is that that fires and ammunition detonation kills ships (whether sinking or just K-kill).

Massive game changer on the amphibious assault option IMHO.

I’m sure I read they’ve lost 6 of those expected to take part in the landing at the beginning of the week. Seems to be going as well as taking Kiev so far, hopefully it all becomes untenable for Russia soon.

[TsarBomba]

I think the upgrade was cancelled basically it would have taken 3 years but only added 5 years on to it’s life expectancy so was deemed not worth it. The ship is about 50 years old and they have massive issues with the fire suppression systems on board so any fire is going to cause major problems.

It think it is still afloat actually and it could turn out to be just a fire rather than a hit whatever it is it clears up a bit of space for Ukraine air activity in the South if they are still capable.

Just going back to the Moskva, briefly.

If I remember correctly, the same article/thread speculated that up to 70% of that £1BN ‘upgrade’ was embezzled by senior officers in the Russian navy and civilians at the ship yard where maintenance took place.

I’ll try and dig a link out.

[Colburn_Claret]

It's obvious by now that there are Russians, and then there are Russians.
The conscripts from the East are untrained, poorly armed, and just cannon fodder when/if the next offensive starts.

Amazed by the psyche of these people, treated like 2nd class citizens, yet prepared to die for an immoral cause. It must be awful to be living such an ignorant life, and unaware of the world around you.

[elwaclaret]

Phillips OBrien - (Mud, mud glorious mud) Russia being further hampered by spring rains, and it looks like it will be weeks until the spring rains ease.

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... ZwNWWiGu2A

[bfcjg]

If this is true it shows just how good the Ukrainian forces are.

Screenshot_20220414-180917_Samsung Internet.jpg (467.26 KiB) Viewed 3179 times

[Lancasterclaret]

Just going back to the Moskva, briefly.

If I remember correctly, the same article/thread speculated that up to 70% of that £1BN ‘upgrade’ was embezzled by senior officers in the Russian navy and civilians at the ship yard where maintenance took place.

I’ll try and dig a link out.

Dunno about that, but the £1 billion upgrade was scrapped in favour of an engine repair program to extend her service life

We are all awaiting the first pics, but she's heading for the scrapyard (assuming she doesn't sink under tow to Sevastopol)

[Vegas Claret]

Putin's defence minister Sergei Shoigu has had 'massive heart attack' and allegedly not from natural causes
https://twitter.com/Billbrowder/status/ ... 3Bux4hwysQ

[bfcjg]

Putin's defence minister Sergei Shoigu has had 'massive heart attack' and allegedly not from natural causes
https://twitter.com/Billbrowder/status/ ... 3Bux4hwysQ

Hopefully Putin next.

[TsarBomba]

It's obvious by now that there are Russians, and then there are Russians.
The conscripts from the East are untrained, poorly armed, and just cannon fodder when/if the next offensive starts.

Amazed by the psyche of these people, treated like 2nd class citizens, yet prepared to die for an immoral cause. It must be awful to be living such an ignorant life, and unaware of the world around you.

The only motivation to join the Russian military is money.

The central and eastern districts are incredibly poor. No prospects and opportunity whatsoever.

From what I remember, pay is around 500 roubles per month in the Army, and if you are deployed to a war zone, this jumps to 2,500 roubles, which is huge money for these people.

But even so, the Russian Army are REALLY struggling to fill their coffers with new recruits at the moment.

[Lowbankclaret]

The only motivation to join the Russian military is money.

The central and eastern districts are incredibly poor. No prospects and opportunity whatsoever.

From what I remember, pay is around 500 roubles per month in the Army, and if you are deployed to a war zone, this jumps to 2,500 roubles, which is huge money for these people.

But even so, the Russian Army are REALLY struggling to fill their coffers with new recruits at the moment.

Exactly what I had read this week. There was an article on Twitter. Wish I had linked it now.

[Lowbankclaret]

This is a link to the blown bridge with a picture of the charges set. It’s either a good mock up or real.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1514 ... UgvxGra-Aw

[Lowbankclaret]

That was a lucky find, this is the thread about Russia soldiers. Pure luck I found it quickly.

https://twitter.com/oivshina/status/151 ... UgvxGra-Aw

[JarrowClaret]

Just going back to the Moskva, briefly.

If I remember correctly, the same article/thread speculated that up to 70% of that £1BN ‘upgrade’ was embezzled by senior officers in the Russian navy and civilians at the ship yard where maintenance took place.

I’ll try and dig a link out.

I read this the guy is a Naval expert though so I would trust what he says, not sure about funds getting embezzled but it seemingly didn’t get it’s refit and hasn’t had one it basically had some running repairs in around 2016.

https://twitter.com/alessionaval/status ... JekSr0vDsA

[Lowbankclaret]

I read this the guy is a Naval expert though so I would trust what he says, not sure about funds getting embezzled but it seemingly didn’t get it’s refit and hasn’t had one it basically had some running repairs in around 2016.

https://twitter.com/alessionaval/status ... JekSr0vDsA

The whole Russia system is based around corruption, I watched the program on Chelsea’s owner. Roman.
He bought the state “Putin” Russian oil company in an “auction”, where a chineses delegation turned up to bid, let’s just say they were intimidated to leave Russia. Roman won unopposed for something like 100 million. Allegedly money loaned to him.
I think 7 years later the state “Putin “ bought it back for I think it was 1.6 billion.

He owes Putin big time.

That’s how it’s done.

[Lowbankclaret]

Worth a read. Former commander of US forces in Europe.

https://twitter.com/markhertling/status ... 4KV11vNeYg

[JarrowClaret]

Dunno about that, but the £1 billion upgrade was scrapped in favour of an engine repair program to extend her service life

We are all awaiting the first pics, but she's heading for the scrapyard (assuming she doesn't sink under tow to Sevastopol)

Interestingly there are reports that it sunk in a storm while under tow. Now either it was deliberately sunk after they got everything they wanted off it so Nobody could see the damage or it sunk genuinely. I know what I think

[elwaclaret]

Interestingly there are reports that it sunk in a storm while under tow. Now either it was deliberately sunk after they got everything they wanted off it so Nobody could see the damage or it sunk genuinely. I know what I think

Ukraine were first to report it was sinking… they also say they fired the shot. Interesting Putin would rather see Russian shoddy practices blamed, than Ukraine credited. I think it tells us that the Kremlin is not s cock sure as they are making out…

[elwaclaret]

Phillips OBrien - Experts have overestimated Russia, and hugely underestimated the level of training (from the UK pre war) of Ukraine forces; but now they cannot understand why Russia is doing so badly.

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... ZwNWWiGu2A

https://twitter.com/phillipspobrien/sta ... ZwNWWiGu2A

[NewClaret]

When you look at the surveillance that Ukraine can employ, one has to suspect the Ukrainians know they will have a less risky chance as they form a traffic jam in the border areas.

This shows how they can follow ‘teams’ back to their positions - they could look what they had for breakfast if they wanted to know.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1514 ... xMXQGB56wQ

Thanks. That’s one of the best videos I’ve watched (feel terrible saying that) in terms of showcasing their ability to deploy surveillance and pinpoint the Russians.

With that kind of capability it makes me wonder how they’re being so successful in the East.

Also saw the bridge destroyed today. Suppose that’s a good example of why the might just leave them to slog out a long journey, use all their fuel/food/supplies and then just blow a bridge up so they can’t reach their target

[Lowbankclaret]

This looks very believable, possibly over 400 lost on the ship.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1514 ... 4KV11vNeYg

[Nonayforever]

BBC reporting the Russian warship has sunk, with the Russians blaming a storm whilst it was being towed.
Whatever spin they try to put on it, the loss is a massive humiliation witnessed by the whole community.

[elwaclaret]

NEW YORK TIMES: Underline the argument about who did what, and said, underlined earlier.

https://twitter.com/nytimes/status/1514 ... ZwNWWiGu2A

If Rob Lee is saying that Lowbank think we can except it, he uses mainly Russian sources.

[elwaclaret]

ROB LEE: Photos of Russians in Mariupol.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1514 ... ZwNWWiGu2A

[bfcjg]

Surprised that the Kremlin haven't spun it to say the ship also doubles up as a new prototype submarine.

[Lancasterclaret]

Remarkable

Confirmed as sunk

Almost certainly hit by at least one missile, setting off secondary explosions and sinking her

Biggest naval loss since WWII (Bigger than the General Belgrano)

Be a huge lesson to any navy about operating too close to land

[Elbarad]

Remarkable

Confirmed as sunk

Almost certainly hit by at least one missile, setting off secondary explosions and sinking her

Biggest naval loss since WWII (Bigger than the General Belgrano)

Be a huge lesson to any navy about operating too close to land

I'm not so sure, perhaps it's a mere coincidence. Hopefully the Russians will test your theory by placing the rest of their fleet close to shore and see if the same thing happens to them.

Actually it is amazing that they've confirmed it sunk. I guess it was just too big a deal to lie about. Other then lying about the cause of course.

[jos]

NEXTA TV -
An air-raid alert on the entire territory of #Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/151 ... 47552?s=21

[NewClaret]

NEXTA TV -
An air-raid alert on the entire territory of #Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/151 ... 47552?s=21

Sounds worrying!

[Lancasterclaret]

I'm not so sure, perhaps it's a mere coincidence. Hopefully the Russians will test your theory by placing the rest of their fleet close to shore and see if the same thing happens to them.

Actually it is amazing that they've confirmed it sunk. I guess it was just too big a deal to lie about. Other then lying about the cause of course.

They are learning, no point in hiding stuff that is all over the internet within a day, and its a ship with a big crew, all of whom probably live close or in Sevastopol.

Pretending it hasn't sunk when thousands of relatives are wondering where their boys are is just going to make this even worse for them

The fact that they are claiming its their own very poor ammunition storage procedures that sunk it rather than admitting it was sunk by a Ukrainian missile is so telling

Imagine being at the stage of a special operation where its actually politically better to admit you are crap at this than admit the opposition are sinking ships?

[Nonayforever]

The big risk now, in the face of such humiliation is that Putin gets so angry he demands they go nuclear.
Apparently they have " small " nuclear warheads. I really don't know how the West would deal with that situation.

[Lancasterclaret]

The big risk now, in the face of such humiliation is that Putin gets so angry he demands they go nuclear.
Apparently they have " small " nuclear warheads. I really don't know how the West would deal with that situation.

He dies if he does that, and so does Russia

He must know this, and as his entire life is about serving Russia then its still a very low probability

Tactical nukes in the Donbass? An area with a huge percentage of Russian speaking Ukrainians and home to the two separatist republics that Russia back?

Not going to happen

Whoever or whatever persuaded him that there wasn't any point fighting in northern and north eastern Ukraine has to persuade him that there isn't any point fighting in east or southern Ukraine as well, and that they might have to give up territory to achieve a peaceful solution

Course, I don't know how far away we are from that, nor do I know if the Ukrainians can take back significant amounts of territory, but (again) the longer this goes on, the worse it gets for Russia

And as Philip O'Brien has said on twitter, once Russia attacked, it lost control over the situation, and it needs another country (Ukraine) to agree to stop , it just can't stop this on its own anymore

[Hipper]

Well, not really

Its clearly been a catastrophic fire (for whatever reason) resulting in the crew being evacuated (so on board fire fighting clearly failed) and the fire has burnt itself out

My guess is that there is nothing left but the hull, with everything topside being either completely destroyed or damaged beyond repair

But we will see!

In the report by the US Defence official he say that '......... in the wake of the damage that the Moskva experienced all of the northern Black Sea ships have now moved out, away from that the northern areas where they were operating in.'

https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcript ... l-14-2022/

That's telling and suggests it was a Ukrainian attack, or at least the Russians think it might have been.

[Lancasterclaret]

In the report by the US Defence official he say that '......... in the wake of the damage that the Moskva experienced all of the northern Black Sea ships have now moved out, away from that the northern areas where they were operating in.'

https://www.defense.gov/News/Transcript ... l-14-2022/

That's telling and suggests it was a Ukrainian attack, or at least the Russians think it might have been.

Yup

Chalk it down to another "the Russians never tell the truth and everything they say must be assessed using that basis"

[Colburn_Claret]

This looks very believable, possibly over 400 lost on the ship.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1514 ... 4KV11vNeYg

I would have thought only a skeleton crew was left on board, in order to tow it to port, but with Russia any cock up is possible.

[Colburn_Claret]

He dies if he does that, and so does Russia

He must know this, and as his entire life is about serving Russia then its still a very low probability

Tactical nukes in the Donbass? An area with a huge percentage of Russian speaking Ukrainians and home to the two separatist republics that Russia back?

Not going to happen

Whoever or whatever persuaded him that there wasn't any point fighting in northern and north eastern Ukraine has to persuade him that there isn't any point fighting in east or southern Ukraine as well, and that they might have to give up territory to achieve a peaceful solution

Course, I don't know how far away we are from that, nor do I know if the Ukrainians can take back significant amounts of territory, but (again) the longer this goes on, the worse it gets for Russia

And as Philip O'Brien has said on twitter, once Russia attacked, it lost control over the situation, and it needs another country (Ukraine) to agree to stop , it just can't stop this on its own anymore

I was looking forward to Ukraine gaining some ground back, but thinking about it, just dragging this out, as long as possible, hitting strategic targets that undermine any Russian push, and sooner or later the Russians are just going to run out of everything they need to even hold on to what they have.

It's so important that we keep supplying them with whatever they need.

[Lancasterclaret]

I was looking forward to Ukraine gaining some ground back, but thinking about it, just dragging this out, as long as possible, hitting strategic targets that undermine any Russian push, and sooner or later the Russians are just going to run out of everything they need to even hold on to what they have.

It's so important that we keep supplying them with whatever they need.

I think Ukraine will take land back, certainly can see them being able to retake Kherson, and possibly some (if not all) of the Donbass

Russia will take Mariupol, but I just don't see how they achieve anything other than a huge slog in the Donbass, with heavy casualties and every day more and more economic damage

The worry really is that Ukraine actually defeats the Russian army, and essentially retakes all pre-2014 Ukraine, and how the Russians deal with that

[Lowbankclaret]

I would have thought only a skeleton crew was left on board, in order to tow it to port, but with Russia any cock up is possible.

I am going to defer to the two 1 tonne missiles hit her slightly above the water line and blew two great holes in her. It would sink pretty quickly. The Turks said they got 50 odd men off.. the other poor souls will be at the bottom of the sea.
All this stuff from Russia, I believe none of it unfortunately for the poor sailor on board.
But we may learn more as time goes on.

[Colburn_Claret]

Is it a worry.
I can see it's a real possibility, but should we be worried by the consequences, I fear the consequences of Russia succeeding far more. The message that it sends to China alone, that just because the West enjoys an easy life-style doesn't make us weak. That political bullies will be faced off. That expansionism, will not be tolerated. There are a lot of lessons here for any despots in the World to see.
It's a fight nobody wants, but a fight we can't afford to avoid. I would say can't afford to lose, but nobody wins in this scenario.