Russia Invades

[Hipper]

Captured equipment from the 1940’s.
Here’s hoping Russia has just about run out of equipment and will be run out of Ukraine.

https://twitter.com/warmonitor3/status/ ... vveNt5_5Xg

Maybe......

http://www.saint-petersburg.com/museums/cruiser-aurora/

[NewClaret]

The front is over 2000 km long, and the Russians have about 200,000 troops

They cannot be strong everywhere

Those numbers help put things in to context.

The UK intelligence reports - which I don’t pay much attention to as they just read like trolling to me, but assuming there is some truth to them - suggested the Russians had been forced to deploy troops from other areas to the South. Assuming they are successful there you have to think that at some point they become so thin on the ground that they become vulnerable to attacks everywhere.

I think it’s when morale completely sinks and the conscripts start deserting the sinking ship that things will quicken up!

[Hipper]

Those numbers help put things in to context.

The UK intelligence reports - which I don’t pay much attention to as they just read like trolling to me, but assuming there is some truth to them - suggested the Russians had been forced to deploy troops from other areas to the South. Assuming they are successful there you have to think that at some point they become so thin on the ground that they become vulnerable to attacks everywhere.

I think it’s when morale completely sinks and the conscripts start deserting the sinking ship that things will quicken up!

This may well be happening - see fifth paragraph:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... eptember-6

[Lowbankclaret]

If this tweet turns out to be true, Ukraine is really pushing forwards, move a little further and they can cut off the troops supply in Izyum.

https://twitter.com/warmonitor3/status/ ... orf8e96j-g

[GodIsADeeJay81]

Do we think Putin will accept the losses/territory or will he do something really stupid to avoid losing face?

[Lancasterclaret]

Do we think Putin will accept the losses/territory or will he do something really stupid to avoid losing face?

He's already threatening to tear up the deal he made for grain exports (though I'm not sure Russia has the capacity to cut that route off now)

If I had to guess what he'll do, then I think he'll go for full mobilization rather than admit defeat

But what Russia thinks that it can do and what it actually can (especially in view of the losses already sustained) might make that counter productive

What I also would say that the army and pride in the armed forces are huge in Russia, and the army are No 1 in importance for keeping him in power.

With heavy losses and clear interference from the top in military operations, that might no longer be the given it was

In short, I don't know, because he already has completely trashed his legacy and the short and medium prosperity of his country with a gamble that if he'd had advisors he listens to (and who have the balls to tell him what is reality) he'd never have taken

[Lowbankclaret]

Reports of 1000 Russian troops captured. Things might be turning.

https://twitter.com/jayinkyiv/status/15 ... orf8e96j-g

[Lancasterclaret]

If this tweet turns out to be true, Ukraine is really pushing forwards, move a little further and they can cut off the troops supply in Izyum.

https://twitter.com/warmonitor3/status/ ... orf8e96j-g

It took Russia about five months to advance that far

Been said a lot on twitter, but if Ukraine has managed to achieve operational and strategic surprise in the Kharkiv reason, and Russia has pushed its best troops over the Dnipro to Kherson to counter the much trumpeted Ukrainian counter attack (which now looks like feint), then we are talking about probably one the greatest military master strokes of all time

[Lowbankclaret]

It took Russia about five months to advance that far

Been said a lot on twitter, but if Ukraine has managed to achieve operational and strategic surprise in the Kharkiv reason, and Russia has pushed its best troops over the Dnipro to Kherson to counter the much trumpeted Ukrainian counter attack (which now looks like feint), then we are talking about probably one the greatest military master strokes of all time

I am seeing multiple breakthroughs with videos on Twitter. Lots of dead and captured Russians. Obviously not going to link. Putin is going to be sacking everyone tomorrow.

[welsbyswife]

Let's hope it's not long before someone decides to sack Putin himself. He may look like he has a tight grip on power but these things can come tumbling down pretty quickly when things go catastrophically wrong.

[Billy Balfour]

I think Putin is here until he shuffles off this mortal coil. If he was going to be toppled, it would have been done by now. Those who surround him are too dependent on his power. It was the same with Stalin, and he lasted until he died from natural causes. Hope I'm wrong, though.

[Elbarad]

It took Russia about five months to advance that far

Been said a lot on twitter, but if Ukraine has managed to achieve operational and strategic surprise in the Kharkiv reason, and Russia has pushed its best troops over the Dnipro to Kherson to counter the much trumpeted Ukrainian counter attack (which now looks like feint), then we are talking about probably one the greatest military master strokes of all time

Well if Kherson is a feint, it's a darn good one. They're gaining territory there as well. I lean towards an idea that they intended to do Kherson, and were ready if an opportunity presented itself in the Kharkiv region. I expect things to get worse for the Russians in Kherson instead of better. They have a lot of troops there, but supply is going to become more of a problem every day. Morale as well. 20K soldiers throwing rocks and eating weeds from the field isn't going to slow the offensive much.

[Lancasterclaret]

Seems a very logical summary of what Ukraine is trying to achieve in the Izyum region



https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1567467507665051648

[Elbarad]

Supposedly taken from dead/captured Russians on the Kharkiv front. No idea if that's true or even if they're Russians taking the video. No blood or gore, just an amazing amount of fire going in and out. Absolutely grateful I'm not in that trench. Edit: You need sound on.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/stat ... 7742870530

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/JimmySecUK/status/1 ... 5761011712

Some recently released footage of Zelinsky talking to Macron on the 1st day of the war

[Lowbankclaret]

Seems a very logical summary of what Ukraine is trying to achieve in the Izyum region



https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1567467507665051648

They appear to have made progress. If this tweet is correct, it normally is when this person tweets.

https://twitter.com/warmonitor3/status/ ... -v2FMgAPZg

[Lancasterclaret]

Ukrainian General Staff just reporting that they have liberated 20 settlements in the Kharkiv region, and broken through to a depth of 50 km

[Lancasterclaret]

Ukrainian flag fluttering above the main administration building in Baliklaya

https://twitter.com/DmitryOpines/status ... 6176647172

Almost certainly a Russian withdrawal to avoid being encircled

[GodIsADeeJay81]

https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/ ... SZh2g&s=19

Unrest in St Petersburg and a suggestion of accusing Putin of Treason

[Lowbankclaret]

Best Map I have seen of the current position. You have to zoom in to the area your interested in. Above Izyum they have made significant gains.

https://twitter.com/kamil35148325/statu ... -v2FMgAPZg

[Vegas Claret]

Supposedly taken from dead/captured Russians on the Kharkiv front. No idea if that's true or even if they're Russians taking the video. No blood or gore, just an amazing amount of fire going in and out. Absolutely grateful I'm not in that trench. Edit: You need sound on.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/stat ... 7742870530

[Lowbankclaret]

Holy moly, balls of steel. No graphic images or bodies. But talk about attack all guns blazing.

https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/15 ... i4EAnlW01g

https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/15 ... i4EAnlW01g

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status ... 9498811392

This is very illuminating of how successful Ukraine have been

Tanks and trucks parked on the side of the road, no need for camouflage, no real need for dispersal

You only do that if you are really confident that there are no artillery, no drones and no aircraft anywhere near

[Colburn_Claret]

He's already threatening to tear up the deal he made for grain exports (though I'm not sure Russia has the capacity to cut that route off now)

If I had to guess what he'll do, then I think he'll go for full mobilization rather than admit defeat

But what Russia thinks that it can do and what it actually can (especially in view of the losses already sustained) might make that counter productive

What I also would say that the army and pride in the armed forces are huge in Russia, and the army are No 1 in importance for keeping him in power.

With heavy losses and clear interference from the top in military operations, that might no longer be the given it was

In short, I don't know, because he already has completely trashed his legacy and the short and medium prosperity of his country with a gamble that if he'd had advisors he listens to (and who have the balls to tell him what is reality) he'd never have taken

Going for full mobilization, would mean an admittance that all the pro Russian propaganda he's been putting out since February is ********. Considering how many citizens have been fined, jailed, or fallen from windows for stating that all is not well with the special operation, that would be a very risky strategy.

[Taffy on the wing]

Non of these twitter links are working for me.

[LeadBelly]

Non of these twitter links are working for me.

Are you a Twitterer? I'd never been on Twitter until I started following this thread and had trouble following the links so I signed up on twitter (I've never posted anything & haven't put any info up about myself but I can follow all the links here and find my own links).

I have to say stick closely to the Ukraine-related stuff, otherwise twitter is largely full of half-witted garbage

[Elbarad]

Are you a Twitterer? I'd never been on Twitter until I started following this thread and had trouble following the links so I signed up on twitter (I've never posted anything & haven't put any info up about myself but I can follow all the links here and find my own links).

I have to say stick closely to the Ukraine-related stuff, otherwise twitter is largely full of half-witted garbage

I'm in the same boat as you LeadBelly.

And I agree. Every time I allow myself to be sidetracked from the Ukraine posts, I find myself wondering how a hundred posters can simultaneously over react about any little thing.

So-and-so said this!! Don't you know that's horrible for whatever reason?!?! Seriously, who cares and maybe look outside the echo chamber for a minute and learn something.

[Lancasterclaret]

I'm in the same boat as you LeadBelly.

And I agree. Every time I allow myself to be sidetracked from the Ukraine posts, I find myself wondering how a hundred posters can simultaneously over react about any little thing.

So-and-so said this!! Don't you know that's horrible for whatever reason?!?! Seriously, who cares and maybe look outside the echo chamber for a minute and learn something.

Genuinely don't get that

If you make sure you follow the right people, and reply in the same vein as you want to be replied to, then you won't have an issue

I get occasionally annoyed at stuff on there, but as a resource for up to date info on absolutely anything, its unmatched

[elwaclaret]

Genuinely don't get that

If you make sure you follow the right people, and reply in the same vein as you want to be replied to, then you won't have an issue

I get occasionally annoyed at stuff on there, but as a resource for up to date info on absolutely anything, its unmatched

Quite agree. I keep my circle fairly tight and see very little nonsense, when it appears I operate a three strikes, even against those I was interested in following, but who proved to be unworthy.

[elwaclaret]

Lawrence Freedman retweet of War Monitor: Ukrainian Kharkiv Counteroffensive Map:
08/09/2022
Ukrainian forces have liberated 20+ villages in a spearhead operation and are fighting in the settlements just west of Kup'yans'k.

https://twitter.com/warmonitor3/status/ ... ZX8YGixp9Q

[Elbarad]

So let's give Phillips OBrian as an example. He's an excellent resource. He and I probably don't agree on much politically, but that's ok. He has every right to post his thoughts and have his own opinions. Even when I disagree with him, he has put good thought into what he says. Fair play to him. I don't respond to him on things I disagree with him about, I just read and move on.

What's annoying to me, and this is a me problem and not a them problem is that I then start looking at other posts, and it's just a bunch of people saying they agree with him or going further down the rabbit hole.

Again, this is my lack of skill at using Twitter. I just don't need to see an incredibly long thread of basically, 'Yeah! We're right! And smart! And anyone who doesn't agree with us is stupid or a criminal!'

I wouldn't want to read that from someone on the right's twitter followers either.

100 posts of back slapping and self congratulating and mutual masturbation.

Anyway, sorry for my little rant. The simple answer of course is for me to just stop reading the replies after the initial post. Then I get the info I want, without the BS. But I never claimed to be smart

[JarrowClaret]

So let's give Phillips OBrian as an example. He's an excellent resource. He and I probably don't agree on much politically, but that's ok. He has every right to post his thoughts and have his own opinions. Even when I disagree with him, he has put good thought into what he says. Fair play to him. I don't respond to him on things I disagree with him about, I just read and move on.

What's annoying to me, and this is a me problem and not a them problem is that I then start looking at other posts, and it's just a bunch of people saying they agree with him or going further down the rabbit hole.

Again, this is my lack of skill at using Twitter. I just don't need to see an incredibly long thread of basically, 'Yeah! We're right! And smart! And anyone who doesn't agree with us is stupid or a criminal!'

I wouldn't want to read that from someone on the right's twitter followers either.

100 posts of back slapping and self congratulating and mutual masturbation.

Anyway, sorry for my little rant. The simple answer of course is for me to just stop reading the replies after the initial post. Then I get the info I want, without the BS. But I never claimed to be smart

Ha ha Twitter can be a cesspit iignore most of what I read, I am doing this more and more on this board as well sadly. The replies can sometimes be funny though I follow 2 sites just for that fesshole and RAFLuton both can be a good source of fun although fesshole does make me cringe at the same time some awful stuff admitted on it.

[Taffy on the wing]

Are you a Twitterer? I'd never been on Twitter until I started following this thread and had trouble following the links so I signed up on twitter (I've never posted anything & haven't put any info up about myself but I can follow all the links here and find my own links).

I have to say stick closely to the Ukraine-related stuff, otherwise twitter is largely full of half-witted garbage

Thank you.....i'm not, but will give it a go.

[Lancasterclaret]

Ha ha Twitter can be a cesspit iignore most of what I read, I am doing this more and more on this board as well sadly. The replies can sometimes be funny though I follow 2 sites just for that fesshole and RAFLuton both can be a good source of fun although fesshole does make me cringe at the same time some awful stuff admitted on it.

I can't follow fesshole cos the stuff is too cringe

RAF Luton is great, but I think if you follow more than about 500-700 people your feed gets too big and you just miss good stuff

I think my feed is about 20% Burnley, 10% football, 30% journalists and the rest a collection of military/history stuff, both current and historic

[Hipper]

Regarding Twitter, I notice that O'Brian and other Twitterers that were regularly quoted earlier in the thread are no longer being mentioned???

[Hipper]

Lawrence Freedman retweet of War Monitor: Ukrainian Kharkiv Counteroffensive Map:
08/09/2022
Ukrainian forces have liberated 20+ villages in a spearhead operation and are fighting in the settlements just west of Kup'yans'k.

https://twitter.com/warmonitor3/status/ ... ZX8YGixp9Q

This is getting pretty exciting.

Ukrainian forces will likely capture Kupyansk in the next 72 hours, severely degrading but not completely severing Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... eptember-8

[Lancasterclaret]

Regarding Twitter, I notice that O'Brian and other Twitterers that were regularly quoted earlier in the thread are no longer being mentioned???

I think they are, but the more active members of this thread have clearly all joined twitter to follow people like him

As has been said, its an unrivalled real time information service

[Lancasterclaret]

This is getting pretty exciting.

Ukrainian forces will likely capture Kupyansk in the next 72 hours, severely degrading but not completely severing Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... eptember-8

It looks like the Ukrainians hit positions held by DNR troops (conscripts, with out of date equipment and limited training) and hit them with Ukrainian battle hardened regulars with numerical superiority in tanks, aircraft and men

You'd have thought that the Russians would have learnt this lesson in the last war, as they made sure they targeted the positions of the lightly armed and low morale Axis allies to achieve huge breakthroughs and successes in Operation Uranus, Saturn and Little Saturn in 1942

[bfcjg]

The economic effect will be felt in Russia for generations as the West becomes more self sufficient, I think their only hope is to become a truly democratic western looking country.
https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/gas-t ... 43235.html
The West keep emphasising this is Putins war, they are giving the Liberal Russians wriggle room, as a previous poster put a link on some beurocrats in Cities such as St Petersburg have called for his overthrow.

[LeadBelly]

I found this poll from Germany interesting. The question was as per the translation given (should we continue to support Ukraine despite higher energy prices?). 70% yes, 21% no (presumably 9% ?). I wonder if this would be the same here (I doubt it would be as high but it's difficult to judge)

Also notable that those who vote Green Party are the biggest supporters, weakest support from AfD voters (right wing party).

Another bit that interested me was in the bar chart below on voting intentions - only a small number but Green support has fallen slightly 25%-23% (I assume the comparison is with the recent actual election in Sept 2021). This despite the recent various various deluges/droughts etc.

https://twitter.com/marceldirsus/status ... 6799444992

[Lancasterclaret]

Pics online of Ukrainian forces actually in Kupyansk

Remarkable

[JarrowClaret]

Saw this if it is true the figures are staggering and very close to what the Ukrainians announce.

https://twitter.com/mbk_center/status/1 ... Edoei8Skfw

[Lowbankclaret]

This is getting pretty exciting.

Ukrainian forces will likely capture Kupyansk in the next 72 hours, severely degrading but not completely severing Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... eptember-8

Latest map, Izyum will soon be under pressure.

32159969-34BD-42BE-8D1F-A24534EC896F.png (1.75 MiB) Viewed 1975 times

[Lowbankclaret]

I can the town of Kun’je, being liberated soon, with a lot of Russians captured. All the Russian troops north and west of that town in a very precarious position.

[Elbarad]

Supposedly there are around 20,000 troops in Izyum. I'd say it won't be easy to take, but I've never been less sure about anything in this war then I am about that now.

[Colburn_Claret]

Supposedly there are around 20,000 troops in Izyum. I'd say it won't be easy to take, but I've never been less sure about anything in this war then I am about that now.

I think if it was 20,000 well supplied, well-equipped, well motivated troops it would be a big problem, hopefully these cannon fodder just want to get home alive.

[Lowbankclaret]

Supposedly there are around 20,000 troops in Izyum. I'd say it won't be easy to take, but I've never been less sure about anything in this war then I am about that now.

I had read the officer in charge of Izyum fled 2 days ago. So he was not too confident.

Then I came across this, if this is true, the Troops in Izyum will very quickly get surrounded.

https://twitter.com/warmonitor3/status/ ... xj1Fa9VRww

[LeadBelly]

You've got to wonder where the Russian air force is whilst this is going on. I've seen that the incursion force has SAMS with it but the Ukrainian armour/ troop carriers have to be vulnerable to air attack so far from main bases surely? Or is the Ukrainian air defence so good they daren't risk it?

[Lancasterclaret]

There are a load of maps around, but the two key points are that the only railway line to Izyum that isn't cut by Ukrainian positions is through Kupyansk, and the River from Kupyansk down to Izyum has only five crossing points, and all are in artillery range of the Ukrainian army

The key is just how much armor, artillery and highly trained troops Russia has at the edges of the breakthrough

If they have enough, then they could close the pocket at the breakthrough point

It does look like they don't have anywhere near enough, but the Ukrainians will want to widen the penetration as much as possible

[Lowbankclaret]

You've got to wonder where the Russian air force is whilst this is going on. I've seen that the incursion force has SAMS with it but the Ukrainian armour/ troop carriers have to be vulnerable to air attack so far from main bases surely? Or is the Ukrainian air defence so good they daren't risk it?

I have read that most Ukrainian units now have stingers and reports of a few planes and helicopters being shot down on Twitter, certainly one with video.

Stingers being hand held anti aircraft missiles.