Russia Invades

[bfcjg]

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/russia-invite ... 46026.html
They really do live in a strange world the Russian leaders.

[Vegas Claret]

I hope Boeing and Airbus have put their prices up to those OPEC countries that decided to stiff us on oil

[Taffy on the wing]

I mentioned night vision equipment the other day and the advantages.The video shows soldiers walking across a field to engage Russian troops who are in a tree line. They use a drone to guide them in and engage the Russians. All the Ukrainians walk away after.
I watched a video of a new conscript who was captured, he said he was the only one left of 26 new conscripts. A team of Ukrainians with NVG attacked them, they had just AK47s and a small amount of ammo. In just two minutes he said 25 of his fellow conscripts were killed and him captured. He said it was 12 days from call up to capture.
Russia is not learning and its poor conscripts are just going to be eliminated in the cold dark winter in Ukraine.


https://twitter.com/blue_sauron/status/ ... JKdg-dag6A

Nightmarish stuff........poor bastards!

[Taffy on the wing]

I hope Boeing and Airbus have put their prices up to those OPEC countries that decided to stiff us on oil

I doubt it!

[Vegas Claret]

I doubt it!

same

[Lancasterclaret]

I'd actually copied that link ready to post but you obviously beat me to it. Kill Putin and someone as mad as him will takeover, the only solution is to get a moderate popular leader via an uprising which I'm sure the Western nations are working on .

Again, there is no real tradition of democracy in Russia

All they remember from democracy is the chaos and near collapse of Russia after the end of communism, and its not easy to see how they forget that, whatever Putin or his successor does

[NewClaret]

Thanks to Lancaster and Lowbank for their updates on the previous page.

[Stayingup]

I haven't followed this thread at all, but I can see many who have know a lot more than I do. BUT is this - the headline in a Daily - true???

'Decisive rout': Putin's crumbling army on verge of total 'collapse' with morale 'gone'

[JarrowClaret]

I haven't followed this thread at all, but I can see many who have know a lot more than I do. BUT is this - the headline in a Daily - true???

'Decisive rout': Putin's crumbling army on verge of total 'collapse' with morale 'gone'

I would doubt it there will be some truth in it but the Russian Army is not currently near total collapse.

[bfcjg]

Again, there is no real tradition of democracy in Russia

All they remember from democracy is the chaos and near collapse of Russia after the end of communism, and its not easy to see how they forget that, whatever Putin or his successor does

I do take the point,however the Russians in the Cities are more clued up,informed and Westernised then their forebears were at the collapse of the Soviet Union, as with what is happening in Iran it's young people who will be the catalyst for change not old farts, every person fleeing the call up is a vote for democracy.

[Lancasterclaret]

I haven't followed this thread at all, but I can see many who have know a lot more than I do. BUT is this - the headline in a Daily - true???

'Decisive rout': Putin's crumbling army on verge of total 'collapse' with morale 'gone'

No

Look, the Russians still have some good units, the Wagner ones, probably some of the Guards Units, and they still have a lot of artillery and a s**t load of armoured vehicles (most older than you or me)

The collapses in the line have happened when a poor unit, with limited equipment and support and low morale has collapsed when attacked by good, well trained, well equipped Ukrainian ones

They can't be everywhere (though morale is not an issue for the Ukrainians at the moment)

A complete collapse would be when they try to withdraw (ie like they did at Lyman) and it falls apart

That looked liked it might be happening in Kherson as well, but the lines have stabilised again

Its all about whether the Russians have enough of the troops in the "decent to good" category in the line, and as long as they are realistic about what they have (which is not a guarantee based on current performance) then they should be able to make it very difficult for Ukraine to do another Lyman

But no one really knows how bad their supply and ammo situation is, and the heavy damage to the Kerch Bridge could be the pillar that collapses their already stretched supply situation

Quick edit - I don't think anyone knows how close they are to collapse!

Not even the most motivated troops can fight when they have no ammo, food or fuel

[Lowbankclaret]

I haven't followed this thread at all, but I can see many who have know a lot more than I do. BUT is this - the headline in a Daily - true???

'Decisive rout': Putin's crumbling army on verge of total 'collapse' with morale 'gone'

I think it’s difficult to judge, but having followed it from the start, what I will say is this.
Russia started this war with 200,000 troops, around 1800 tanks and they have lost 60,000 troops killed (allegedly) and 2500 tanks destroyed or abandoned to Ukraine.

I believe his army is running out of equipment, Belarus just gave Russia 30 tanks T72’s . They will not last more than 2 weeks.
Drones from Iran are being shot down in large numbers. Again showing he has ran out of his own kit.

This coming winter Russia will simply lose troops to frost bite and cold as they don’t have the kit to keep themselves warm.

I don’t think it’s going to be over very soon but winter will be massive I think.

I will go with around February.

[ClaretCliff]

Just read this in the Telegraph …

Ukraine’s armed forces on Wednesday downed four Russian helicopters in 18 minutes in the south of the country.

Between 8.40am and 8.58am, anti-aircraft missile units of Ukraine’s Air Force managed to hit the Russian aircrafts, it was claimed.

“Combat work was carried out on two more helicopters, so there is a high probability that the number of confirmed down helicopters will increase,” the Air Force said in a press release.

It was claimed one Russian helicopter, believed to be a Ka-52, crashed on territory recently liberated from Russian-backed militants, while the rest crashed behind enemy lines.

The helicopters were said to be “providing fire support to ground occupation troops in the southern direction” when they were gunned down.

The claims were partially confirmed by pro-Russian sources on the Telegram messaging app.

[Hipper]

I haven't followed this thread at all, but I can see many who have know a lot more than I do. BUT is this - the headline in a Daily - true???

'Decisive rout': Putin's crumbling army on verge of total 'collapse' with morale 'gone'

Comes from here:

Vladimir Putin's crumbling Russian army is facing a "decisive rout" and is edging closer to total "collapse", with morale among troops now completely evaporated, according to a leading British Army officer. General Sir Richard Shirreff, who served as Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Europe for the alliance, also believes Ukrainian forces can succeed in driving back the opposition by the end of this year. Russia unleashed a barrage of missile on several Ukrainian cities on Monday as part of a furious reaction for the bombing of its prized bridge in Crimea.


https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/16 ... kraine-war

As other's have said, it's doubtful. More wishful thinking.

Latest maps on ISW show the Russians have yesterday regained some land in from Ukraine near Lyman.

Russian sources claimed that Russian forces conducted a local counterattack and recaptured territories west of Kreminna while continuing to establish defensive positions in the Kreminna-Svatove area on October 11. Russian milbloggers claimed on October 11 that Russian forces conducted counteroffensive operations east of Lyman and recaptured Terny, Torske, Novosadove, Makiivka, and Nevske, although ISW cannot independently verify any of these claims.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... october-11

They are also moving stored equipment from Belarus to Ukraine. They're not dead yet.

[Hipper]

Russia arrest suspects for bridge bombing.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63225947

[Lowbankclaret]

Now what does this thread say about the state of Russias army.
In the next 3 years this factory will modernise 800 T-62 tanks. About 19 a month, is this going to help?? I think not.

Looking at the footage, looks to me like a quick refurbishment. Questions in thread on why not refurb T72 or T 80’s. I think the common thought is they deployed them all.

I will repeat I think this could be over by the end of Feb.

https://twitter.com/barracudavol1/statu ... IZML2jTAAg

[Lowbankclaret]

Another example of the deep ness of the poo, Russia is in. Now deploying howizers that first entered service in 1943.

https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/15 ... IZML2jTAAg

[JarrowClaret]

What a wonderful video this is!

https://twitter.com/prof_preobr/status/ ... oV9AgxcoSA

[NewClaret]

Another example of the deep ness of the poo, Russia is in. Now deploying howizers that first entered service in 1943.

https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/15 ... IZML2jTAAg

Unbelievable

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/DefenceU/status/1580090899228418048

The Ukrainians do social media rather well

[Lancasterclaret]

Now what does this thread say about the state of Russias army.
In the next 3 years this factory will modernise 800 T-62 tanks. About 19 a month, is this going to help?? I think not.

Looking at the footage, looks to me like a quick refurbishment. Questions in thread on why not refurb T72 or T 80’s. I think the common thought is they deployed them all.

I will repeat I think this could be over by the end of Feb.

https://twitter.com/barracudavol1/statu ... IZML2jTAAg

The T-62 is actually a far better tank than the T-72, but its still essentially a variant of a tank that entered service over 50 years ago, and are absolutely defenceless against modern anti-tank missiles

[Lancasterclaret]

Another example of the deep ness of the poo, Russia is in. Now deploying howizers that first entered service in 1943.

https://twitter.com/uaweapons/status/15 ... IZML2jTAAg

Bloody good piece of artillery but yeah, not so useful in 2022

[bfcjg]

https://mobile.twitter.com/COUPSURE/sta ... 6348279809
Some debate on the Russian defensive lines, will they be sitting ducks for drones and HIMARS etc ?

[Lowbankclaret]

Bloody good piece of artillery but yeah, not so useful in 2022

The speculation is the Russians are running out of 152mm munitions and these older howizers use a different ammo they still have.
Borrowing 32 tanks from Belerus, dragging out old T62’s and getting them running and using old WW2 howizers all says they are running out of equipment.
Just wish it would happen quickly.

[Lowbankclaret]

7000 pieces of equipment have been visually identified as destroyed or captured. So the true amount is way higher.
Another reason Russia cannot sustain this attrition rate.

https://twitter.com/rebel44cz/status/15 ... bQcdSmcauw

[bfcjg]

BBC News - Gas taps can be still turned on to EU, says Vladimir Putin
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63231826
He must think the West are stupid, he is desperate for cash for weapons to threatened the West and Ukraine.

[Lowbankclaret]

BBC News - Gas taps can be still turned on to EU, says Vladimir Putin
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63231826
He must think the West are stupid, he is desperate for cash for weapons to threatened the West and Ukraine.

Here is why.

16833F9C-B558-48CF-AC3E-25DC31F7B941.png (1.47 MiB) Viewed 2751 times

[Lowbankclaret]

Putin is suddenly seeing he has run out of tanks, troops BMP’s.
25% of his helicopters and aircraft.

Now he has no money either.

It’s all closing in.

I have seen captured troops saying they don’t get paid until they return to Russia. So they don’t get rest or rotated, so they don’t get paid. I hoping it’s all coming home to roost.

[Stayingup]

Putin meeting Erdogan tomorrow and the latter who controls access to the Black sea from the Eastern Med wants an end to this conflict - so I have read. Interesting to see what happens there.

[elwaclaret]

ROB LEE: Thread on Russian losses in Ukraine. Note, I will only share information from Russian sources, either media, social media or officials, which means the family members will have been previously notified.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1500 ... LMYJ5FTQZw

[elwaclaret]

Shared by ROB LEE:

Europe at War -- Ukraine Map Briefing for Oct 11th.
In the last few days, most action has been behind the front. Ukraine has made slight gains into noman's land in Luhansk, incremental back-and-forth gains in Kherson & Russia gained near Bakhmut. Yellow dots show new captures.

https://twitter.com/nrg8000/status/1580 ... LMYJ5FTQZw

[NewClaret]

Shared by ROB LEE:

Europe at War -- Ukraine Map Briefing for Oct 11th.
In the last few days, most action has been behind the front. Ukraine has made slight gains into noman's land in Luhansk, incremental back-and-forth gains in Kherson & Russia gained near Bakhmut. Yellow dots show new captures.

https://twitter.com/nrg8000/status/1580 ... LMYJ5FTQZw

By “most action has been behind the front”, does he mean they’ve been exchanging fire at targets deep in to territory? Ammo dumps and the like? Seems a pattern there, if so.

I just sense Ukraine are regrouping, resting, gathering intel & preparing to go again.

[NewClaret]

Putin meeting Erdogan tomorrow and the latter who controls access to the Black sea from the Eastern Med wants an end to this conflict - so I have read. Interesting to see what happens there.

That’s interesting. Never heard of that chap although won’t get my hopes up if India/China can’t convince him.

I think the Putin is the only one who wants the war to continue.

[NewClaret]

7000 pieces of equipment have been visually identified as destroyed or captured. So the true amount is way higher.
Another reason Russia cannot sustain this attrition rate.

https://twitter.com/rebel44cz/status/15 ... bQcdSmcauw

The way I see it, Putin had 3 strong cards when he went in to this war:

1. The size of his army
2. Access to energy/raw materials
3. Nuclear weapons

A very good chunk of his army has been destroyed. 5 helicopters yesterday, he just cannot sustain that. Plus his soldiers have been exposed as untrained drunks/convicts.

The West has sorted the energy piece and so he’s blown his bolts on that piece.

That leaves the most frightening left, which is why I’d say slow and steady dismantlement of his army and retaking ground is the most sensible approach now. Not that I actually think he will use them, just that that I wouldn’t provoke a reaction.

[bfcjg]

https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/russi ... 54531.html
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/everything-co ... 01263.html
A couple of articles re the affect of the call up on the economy.

[AlargeClaret]

The way I see it, Putin had 3 strong cards when he went in to this war:

1. The size of his army
2. Access to energy/raw materials
3. Nuclear weapons

A very good chunk of his army has been destroyed. 5 helicopters yesterday, he just cannot sustain that. Plus his soldiers have been exposed as untrained drunks/convicts.

The West has sorted the energy piece and so he’s blown his bolts on that piece.

That leaves the most frightening left, which is why I’d say slow and steady dismantlement of his army and retaking ground is the most sensible approach now. Not that I actually think he will use them, just that that I wouldn’t provoke a reaction.

Worth noting only a small % of Russia’s army has been lost per se . While this is much of his better/best troops , it’s the sheer loss of ordnance ( as you rightly state ) that has been crippling ,allied to a huge underestimate of how much and how good modern tech has been given to UKR , who have applied it with aplomb.
My concern is once winter /mud sets in Putin can deploy /recover /rebuild huge troop numbers . Flip side being UKR can get even more HIMRS etc and on it goes ..

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/HKaaman/status/1580202165838413824

Good thread on the attack on the Kerch Bridge

[Lowbankclaret]

Worth noting only a small % of Russia’s army has been lost per se . While this is much of his better/best troops , it’s the sheer loss of ordnance ( as you rightly state ) that has been crippling ,allied to a huge underestimate of how much and how good modern tech has been given to UKR , who have applied it with aplomb.
My concern is once winter /mud sets in Putin can deploy /recover /rebuild huge troop numbers . Flip side being UKR can get even more HIMRS etc and on it goes ..

I would like to humbly disagree, his numbers of troops have obviously been exaggerated. The force he started with was around 180,000 to 200,000. Based on the normal numbers of war of 3 injured to 1 dead. His whole starting invasion force has been lost. Hence the call up of another 300,000, but these new guys are either getting killed very quickly or surrendering.
I posted earlier a capture POW told the story, he was with 25 other new conscripts. Ukrainians with NVG showed up and in two minutes he was the only survivor.
Videos today of conscripts surrendering. On another link it says there were three more walking down the road to surrender.
https://twitter.com/militarylandnet/sta ... 8y_IpgzxYA

His biggest problem is loses of tanks and BMP’s, they are simply running out of them, hence the refurb factory doing T62’s. 19 a month ain’t going to help. They can be losing that amount a day.
He has lost 25% of his helicopters and fixed wing fighters, they simply dare not fly near the front, think it was yesterday they attacked with 6 of thier too attack helicopters, Ukrainians shot down 5 in 18 minutes. They take months to make and they probably cannot get hold of the teck they need now they cannot buy chips.

Throwing I’ll equipped men at this will just be devastating to Russia.

The new HIMARS the US sent are devastating. I think inhumane to be fair. They explode and release 120,000 ball bearings. You don’t want to be anywhere in Ukraine as a Russian right now. IMHO

[JarrowClaret]

I would like to humbly disagree, his numbers of troops have obviously been exaggerated. The force he started with was around 180,000 to 200,000. Based on the normal numbers of war of 3 injured to 1 dead. His whole starting invasion force has been lost. Hence the call up of another 300,000, but these new guys are either getting killed very quickly or surrendering.
I posted earlier a capture POW told the story, he was with 25 other new conscripts. Ukrainians with NVG showed up and in two minutes he was the only survivor.
Videos today of conscripts surrendering. On another link it says there were three more walking down the road to surrender.
https://twitter.com/militarylandnet/sta ... 8y_IpgzxYA

His biggest problem is loses of tanks and BMP’s, they are simply running out of them, hence the refurb factory doing T62’s. 19 a month ain’t going to help. They can be losing that amount a day.
He has lost 25% of his helicopters and fixed wing fighters, they simply dare not fly near the front, think it was yesterday they attacked with 6 of thier too attack helicopters, Ukrainians shot down 5 in 18 minutes. They take months to make and they probably cannot get hold of the teck they need now they cannot buy chips.

Throwing I’ll equipped men at this will just be devastating to Russia.

The new HIMARS the US sent are devastating. I think inhumane to be fair. They explode and release 120,000 ball bearings. You don’t want to be anywhere in Ukraine as a Russian right now. IMHO

I think he was referring to the total Russian army around 1 mill rather than what was amassed at the border with Ukraine. Anyway there figures are misleading as it is a relatively low figure when we talk about contracted professionals the vast majority are conscripts and we know how professional most of them are.

[Lowbankclaret]

It’s all over Twiitter but cannot see it in mainstream media.
Reports Putin has offered to turn the gas back on.
Now that shows a very big and real weakness if it turns out to be true.

[Lowbankclaret]

Another massive donation of munitions to Ukraine from Russia.

https://twitter.com/gregsiero/status/15 ... 8y_IpgzxYA

[Lowbankclaret]

I think he was referring to the total Russian army around 1 mill rather than what was amassed at the border with Ukraine. Anyway there figures are misleading as it is a relatively low figure when we talk about contracted professionals the vast majority are conscripts and we know how professional most of them are.

Yes I I stand that, I probably didn’t put my point across well. I think the 1 million of Russian army is way over stated. If they had 1 million they could have easily rotated troops out for R and R , which they haven’t done and they could have quickly backed up the forces when they saw it going badly. At a guess, I would say it’s a lot less than 1/2 a million or they would not need another 300,000 which is rumoured to be 1.2 million called up.

[Lowbankclaret]

So here is a thread, this guy states it’s around 90k troops that are KIA or permanently injured to a point they cannot return. Of the 190k they started with. If you had 800,000 in reserve, you don’t need 300,000 more all of a sudden, is my point.

https://twitter.com/paulniland/status/1 ... 8y_IpgzxYA

[NewClaret]

Another massive donation of munitions to Ukraine from Russia.

https://twitter.com/gregsiero/status/15 ... 8y_IpgzxYA

How incredibly sad that a school has been used (and damaged) in that way.

[JarrowClaret]

Yes I I stand that, I probably didn’t put my point across well. I think the 1 million of Russian army is way over stated. If they had 1 million they could have easily rotated troops out for R and R , which they haven’t done and they could have quickly backed up the forces when they saw it going badly. At a guess, I would say it’s a lot less than 1/2 a million or they would not need another 300,000 which is rumoured to be 1.2 million called up.

I read an article once which suggested they have around 250,000 contracted military with the remainder being conscripted. If I am honest I have no idea how many Russian troops are deployed around the the world in places like Syria but I would imagine that the vast majority of there pro army have either tasted a bit of Ukraine already or are deployed and can’t be moved. I agree that they are short hence the extra conscription but not short on overall numbers per say just the right type of soldier

[NewClaret]

AFP reporting that an ammo depo has been blown up over the Russian border

[NewClaret]

Think it’s this one:

https://mobile.twitter.com/Liveuamap/st ... 4810845185

[Lancasterclaret]

Read a report today that gas prices are falling because Europe has reached its storage capacity

Will try to find it

[bfcjg]

https://m.jpost.com/israel-news/article-719525
Israeli help for Ukraine.

[Claretnick]

Read a report today that gas prices are falling because Europe has reached its storage capacity

Will try to find it

I have seen this on twitter

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/15806 ... nNAS3FfsJw