Russia Invades

[LeadBelly]

Dead/injured people (not shown) may be involved but this is a bit of a watchable oddity: knocked out (but still moving) Russian tank aimlessly going round in circles. https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/15 ... 5597883392

[bfcjg]

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/iran-send-lon ... 45969.html
ThecWest should respond accordingly and supply Ukraine with missiles that can travel a similar distance into Russia, these are obviously not for defence.

[bfcjg]

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/moscow-blocke ... 23638.html
Russian censorship, they are getting increasingly desperate.

[Lancasterclaret]

Interesting comparison about the recent spate of Iranian drone attacks online

"Essentially, these are V1 attacks"

https://twitter.com/edwardstrngr/status ... 9132188674

[superdimitri]

Attacks on civilians exactly like the doodlebugs? What an awful tactic. Decisions to use terror weapons like this are the lowest of the low. Why would Iran even be making these.

[Lancasterclaret]

Attacks on civilians exactly like the doodlebugs? What an awful tactic. Decisions to use terror weapons like this are the lowest of the low. Why would Iran even be making these.

Its Iran!

[superdimitri]

Its Iran!

I know but it just seems odd that these days they'd be making this kind of warfare. What's next? Carpet bombing and mustard gas?

[Lancasterclaret]

I know but it just seems odd that these days they'd be making this kind of warfare. What's next? Carpet bombing and mustard gas?

Drones will create headlines, but they won't do anything other than cause minor inconvenience when used this way (of course, people will die but the economy and military effectiveness of Ukraine will be untouched)

They clearly make a difference on the battlefield, but they are very susceptible to jamming and anti-air defences

The Ukrainian Police shot one down in Kyi'v using just their AK-47s today

[superdimitri]

Drones will create headlines, but they won't do anything other than cause minor inconvenience when used this way (of course, people will die but the economy and military effectiveness of Ukraine will be untouched)

They clearly make a difference on the battlefield, but they are very susceptible to jamming and anti-air defences

The Ukrainian Police shot one down in Kyi'v using just their AK-47s today

They aren't effective but that's not their purpose, they are just there to scare the public. Weapons of terror.

[Lancasterclaret]

They aren't effective but that's not their purpose, they are just there to scare the public. Weapons of terror.

But that doesn't work.

It never worked in WWII for starters

Its just a vengeful Putin lashing out with all he's essentially got left, and it should be treated as such

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/TadeuszGiczan/statu ... 3274822656

Thread on the Belarus-Russian "alliance" and how its not actually going to attack Ukraine

[superdimitri]

But that doesn't work.

It never worked in WWII for starters

Its just a vengeful Putin lashing out with all he's essentially got left, and it should be treated as such

I hope you're right with Putin but I feel like civilians will be terrified and were terrified of these kind of weapons. Whether it's effective or not really isn't the point I was making. It's just very low and rudimentary this day and age to use weapons like that.

[jos]

NEXTA:-
In #Russia, a Su-34 military aircraft crashed on a residential building in #Yeysk (#Krasnodar region).

The pilot managed to eject. His parachute is clearly visible in the first picture.

At least 15 apartments were damaged, according to Ministry of Emergency Situations.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/158 ... cMfDI-__lQ

[IanMcL]

I would not like to be Iran, when the USA flexes.

[Lancasterclaret]

I hope you're right with Putin but I feel like civilians will be terrified and were terrified of these kind of weapons. Whether it's effective or not really isn't the point I was making. It's just very low and rudimentary this day and age to use weapons like that.

Yeah, but you have to remember what type of countries like Iran and Russia are

People will be scared, but the military effectiveness is close to minimal

Unmanned drones attacking civilian targets are essentially a terrorists weapon, and hopefully the countries using them will be treated as such

[Aclaret]

NEXTA:-
In #Russia, a Su-34 military aircraft crashed on a residential building in #Yeysk (#Krasnodar region).

The pilot managed to eject. His parachute is clearly visible in the first picture.

At least 15 apartments were damaged, according to Ministry of Emergency Situations.

https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/158 ... cMfDI-__lQ

I'd imagine many casualties in that explosion, all innocent civilian deaths & injuries are of course tragic

[Claretnick]

I hope you're right with Putin but I feel like civilians will be terrified and were terrified of these kind of weapons. Whether it's effective or not really isn't the point I was making. It's just very low and rudimentary this day and age to use weapons like that.

I follow a couple of citizens currently living in Kyiv, this is what one woman posted about 50 minutes ago;

7:49 pm in #Kyiv

Explosions here. Soon on my way home from the workout.
Afraid? No. Just strange.

I find their courage absolutely awesome.

[Lancasterclaret]

I follow a couple of citizens currently living in Kyiv, this is what one woman posted about 50 minutes ago;

7:49 pm in #Kyiv

Explosions here. Soon on my way home from the workout.
Afraid? No. Just strange.

I find their courage absolutely awesome.

Kyi'v is a big city, so ten/twenty drone attacks each day (of which over half have been shot down) will make very little difference to a country that has been at war for essentially eight years

[bfcjg]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1581589953259405312
Ukraine attacking a Russian airfield.

[Elbarad]

I would not like to be Iran, when the USA flexes.

Biden is still trying to get the nuke deal done with Iran. Which they will never honor. Not sure there will be any flexing other then what’s required to give them a giant stack of cash if it’s anything like the last nuke deal.

[Aclaret]

I've read it somewhere, may even have been on here, now Iran are involved whats the chance of Israel backing Ukraine ?

[Lancasterclaret]

I've read it somewhere, may even have been on here, now Iran are involved whats the chance of Israel backing Ukraine ?

They are certainly selling Ukraine some anti-drone stuff, as they are world leaders in this field

Its in their interests to see how it gets on v Iranian drones

[Lowbankclaret]

This Iran twist has thrown me a curved ball.

The drone thing is in my opinion small beer, not for the poor souls who die from them, like the poor lady six months pregnant today. But in changing the course of the war, it’s not going to. Ukraine will be flooded with air defence systems.

Its the ballistic missiles Iran is going to provide I worry will escalate this further.

[bfcjg]

https://uk.yahoo.com/finance/news/sakha ... 16974.html
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/putin-war-esc ... 00371.html
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/ill-equipped- ... 57629.html
Some articles relating to the consequences of the war,and one regarding how useless the drafted soldiers are.

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status ... 2358390784

Russians never throw anything away

WWII helmets in use

[Taffy on the wing]

Quieter than usual on here.....no news?

[Lancasterclaret]

Quieter than usual on here.....no news?

Russia is targeting Ukrainian energy infrastructure with drones and missiles

There isn't a lot you can say about that

I think we are all in for a tough winter

[Lowbankclaret]

Quieter than usual on here.....no news?

Ukraine called for a news/bloggers blackout on the state of the front line for a couple of days.

They all appear to be complying with the request.

[Taffy on the wing]

Ahh... thank you.

[Aclaret]

Ukraine called for a news/bloggers blackout on the state of the front line for a couple of days.

They all appear to be complying with the request.

Yes I heard this the other day, apparently the Ukraines call for a blackout when they are mounting a big push.

[NewClaret]

Ukraine called for a news/bloggers blackout on the state of the front line for a couple of days.

They all appear to be complying with the request.

Didn’t know that Lowbank.

Losses reported in the last few days have been huge so presumably a push going on.

[Lowbankclaret]

Didn’t know that Lowbank.

Losses reported in the last few days have been huge so presumably a push going on.

Just been on Sky news about the news blackout.

I should have posted a link when it came out, apologies.

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/overdryven/status/1 ... 6307635200

Estonian PM absolutely nailing the Russian tactics of negotiation

[Lowbankclaret]

Kadrovs, spelling sorry, kids have arrived in Ukraine.
Aged 14,15 and 16, his lads are there on a PR stunt.

They appear to have way better kit than the conscripts get.

[Lowbankclaret]

https://twitter.com/gerashchenko_en/sta ... irjNJ1KYmA
Forgot the link.

[AlargeClaret]

Is Kherson the most likely “ big push” here ? I heard on radio that they’re having very pleasant weather for a few weeks so I’d imagine UKR want a real notable scalp here before the almost inevitable poor weather arrives . I’m not fully upto date at all but there’s there appears to be a real feel of a bit of rout in the offing as Vlad’s troops suffer low ammo /poor kit /poor morale and a real lack of high end battle hardened troops left .

[Lancasterclaret]

Is Kherson the most likely “ big push” here ? I heard on radio that they’re having very pleasant weather for a few weeks so I’d imagine UKR want a real notable scalp here before the almost inevitable poor weather arrives . I’m not fully upto date at all but there’s there appears to be a real feel of a bit of rout in the offing as Vlad’s troops suffer low ammo /poor kit /poor morale and a real lack of high end battle hardened troops left .

If I had to guess, then that is where most of the best Russian troops and equipment is, and I'd be surprised if its there

Zaporozhe oblast, aiming towards Melitopol would be where it is

But its just an opinion!

[bfcjg]

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/nato-send-hun ... 32723.html
Hopefully it will render Putins cowardly attacks ineffective.

[It Is What It Is]

Armageddon looms....f..k you Putin.
Nobody will live to see us win the Championship.
Oh well. Why is the West just sitting back and waiting for the n bomb?
All Western nuclear powers should just nuke Moscow and make Russia a car park now.

[IanMcL]

I've read it somewhere, may even have been on here, now Iran are involved whats the chance of Israel backing Ukraine ?

Israel only protects Israel.

[Taffy on the wing]

Armageddon looms....f..k you Putin.
Nobody will live to see us win the Championship.
Oh well. Why is the West just sitting back and waiting for the n bomb?
All Western nuclear powers should just nuke Moscow and make Russia a car park now.

Hello, good evening & welcome to "spot the brain cell"!

[grapidianclaret]

Fiona Hill gave an interview. Northeast born. Is a very knowledgable Russia expert. Not sure how to get it on here,hoping someone can find it and link it. She has lots to say about Putin,his aims and his methods,as well as his use of people like Elon Musk and the American news media.
Incredibly observant lady.
Fiona Hill was the Russia expert for the Trump administration btw

[NewClaret]

Fiona Hill gave an interview. Northeast born. Is a very knowledgable Russia expert. Not sure how to get it on here,hoping someone can find it and link it. She has lots to say about Putin,his aims and his methods,as well as his use of people like Elon Musk and the American news media.
Incredibly observant lady.
Fiona Hill was the Russia expert for the Trump administration btw

Not sure if this is the whole interview, or part of it, but it is interesting:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 8.html?amp

I’d say Musk needs to be very careful how much he comments on this situation going forward.

[bfcjg]

Israel only protects Israel.

By supplying anti drone/anti missile technology to Ukraine the Israeli government will see how effective their weapons are against Iranian armourments and can react accordingly Iran is Israels main enemy.

[NewClaret]

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/nato-send-hun ... 32723.html
Hopefully it will render Putins cowardly attacks ineffective.

This is good news.

From what I can tell they’re all largely ineffective in terms of volumes they have to launch to achieve strikes, and the accuracy of those that do get through, but clearly even one killing civilians is one too many. Hopefully this means that none do.

Lowbanks info on the media blackout was interesting. The death and equipment tolls reported by Ukraine are really high on the last few days. I think these drone strikes are retaliation.

[Colburn_Claret]

Not sure if this is the whole interview, or part of it, but it is interesting:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 8.html?amp

I’d say Musk needs to be very careful how much he comments on this situation going forward.

The problem is Musk doesn't recognise that he is being used.
Reading Fiona Hill, it's a well used trick of Putin, to flatter people, butter them up, into thinking they can help, to send messages out into the wide world, to see what reaction they bring.
Musk 'thinks' he is helping, when really he is just being used. The reversal of his decision on Starlink, hopefully points to someone opening his eyes for him.

[AlargeClaret]

Even the new Russian “ big chief” commander is coming out with quotes such as “ very difficult fighting “ “ outnumbered in certain areas “ and ( ahem ) “ trying to save the civilian population via evacuation “ . Comments related to Kherson fighting .

[Corky]

I thought some of you may like to read this from UKDJ. It is the latest take from Defence Intelligence. There was a map but I couldn't get that to copy!!!!

It is challenging to keep track of Russian and Ukrainian casualties because Russia and Ukraine have the incentive to conceal those numbers. On the other hand, open-source reporting has resulted in some estimates that are most likely to be within a reasonable range of the actual figure.

Many estimate Russia has lost around 2,000 tanks, many of which Ukraine has seized. The most recent offensive alone is estimated to have captured around two dozen tanks, which is sufficient for Ukraine to equip two tank companies.



If accurate, the above represents approximately 66 percent of Russia’s modern tank forces. The figure, of course, does not include the 20,000 old tanks that Russia keeps in storage. Evidence suggests that Russia’s tank problems have reached a crisis level. There is confirmation that T-62s are now in combat in Ukraine.

Russia has become one of the largest suppliers of equipment to Ukraine
According to some estimates, Russia has suffered the loss of around 4,500 infantry fighting vehicles, which accounts for approximately 34% of its total force. Ukraine has also shot down two hundred fifty of Russia’s most cutting-edge aircraft, though this only accounts for about 18% of Russia’s aircraft fleet.

Additionally, 1300 pieces of artillery, both self-propelled and traditional, have been captured, abandoned, or destroyed. This figure accounts for approximately 23% of Russia’s total artillery stock.

As for troops, Over 90,000 Russian soldiers have died, cannot be accounted for, or have suffered such serious injuries that they are unable to return to service, independent Russian media project iStories reported, citing sources close to the Kremlin.

Morale is getting worse, as are Russian results
Russian morale is at an all-time low, according to reports. Of course, this is not Russia’s only problem, but it is a problem nonetheless. Almost from the moment that military operations began, the Russian military was suffering from low morale. In retaliation for the high number of casualties they were suffering, one tank unit even ran over the legs of their commanders.

Following its defeat in the Kharkiv Oblast, Russia has initiated a significant nationwide recruitment effort to compensate for the number of soldiers it lost in battle. However, Russia’s partial mobilisation is indicative of the country’s realisation that it cannot generate the manpower necessary to achieve its goals in Ukraine.

On the front lines at home, sanctions imposed by the West have been criticised, even within the West, as being ineffective, even though Russia’s economy is beginning to show signs of severe deterioration due to the sanctions.

Russian energy has boosted their war effort
However, this was only possible due to Russia’s extensive use of its currency reserves to artificially prop up its economy. These reserves are slowly being depleted, and the reduction in energy that Russia supplies to Europe as a result of both self-imposed energy restrictions in Russia as well as Russia’s deliberate attempt to exert pressure on Europe by cutting off gas flows has resulted in the drying up of Russia’s most lucrative source of revenue. Energy sales have been the primary factor in keeping the Russian economy afloat.

As a result of the steep drop in sales to Europe, Russia has been searching for alternative buyers, and those alternative buyers are now responsible for determining prices. For example, both China and India are stocking up on low-cost energy from Russia at prices they set and then turning around and selling it to other countries to make a profit.

German tanks, American jets, Canadian training and British intelligence
In contrast, Ukraine is gradually gaining the support from Western nations that it has required from the very beginning of its political crisis. Western governments are, for the most part, deciding whether to provide Ukraine with heavy equipment like tanks and aircraft.

The United States has given its approval for Ukrainian pilots to receive training on the F-16 and F-15. And it’s inevitable that the Ukrainian air force will be flying Western fighters within the next six to eight months.

Britain, as many of you know, continues its weekly shipments of everything from anti-air missiles to ammunition. Additionally, the UK is erring ongoing intelligence information to Ukraine through the use of frequent surveillance aircraft missions to the region.

Germany is currently debating whether or not to provide Ukraine with Leopard 2 tanks. Additionally, a growing number of calls coming from within the United States could result in approval to provide Ukraine with Abrams tanks. I’m not joking. This would be huge.

Alongside the US and UK, Canada is even helping to train Ukrainians to defend their homeland. Other countries, are, of course, helping in a multitude of ways.

Get to the point, is Ukraine winning?
Is it fair to say that Ukraine is winning the war? Sorry for the vague answer here, but yes and no. Let me explain. Wars don’t count as won until they’ve been fought and won. Various factors can potentially bring about a significant shift in Ukraine’s circumstances. Ukraine may be offered less support due to the growing sense of exhaustion among some Westerners regarding the situation in Ukraine.

As a result of being cut off from Russian supplies, Europe is already preparing for a harsh winter, which an energy shortage will compound. Moreover, this harsh winter may cause a significant shift in European public opinion against maintaining support for Ukraine. Let’s hope it doesn’t.

The momentum needs to be maintained
Despite this, the United States, the United Kingdom and other significant players maintain their quite solid commitment to Ukraine and appear poised to provide that country with even more technologically advanced equipment. The assistance of the United States and the United Kingdom alone may be sufficient to turn the tide of the war in Ukraine’s favour, but as the old saying goes, the more, the merrier.

Despite all of the above, Russia maintains a military that remains a significantly capable force despite being clumsy and inept. So don’t let their failings make you think Russia is a paper tiger. It isn’t.

Even a full-scale mobilisation is unlikely to win the war for Russia at this point because it would take nearly a year to organise, train, and equip new forces—time that Russia does not have. Moreover, Ukraine had been underestimated at almost every point since the start of the invasion, with many analysts and Western governments expecting the capital to fall within days. It didn’t fall. It pushed back.

Ukraine can win, but it isn’t a sure bet
However, there is a genuine concern that people will overestimate Ukraine’s capacity for success in its objective of retaking the land seized by Russia. The offensive operation in the East is still meeting with a great deal of success. However, the element of surprise played a significant role in the success of that offensive, and it is improbable that the same level of tactical surprise can be achieved again.

But I was wrong about this before, and I hope I am this time too. The conflict will inevitably devolve into a drawn-out slugfest in which Russia will play the heavyweight role. The only way for Ukraine to push Russia back toward its borders is for the West to maintain and significantly increase its support.

Ukraine is not necessarily winning, but it is a long way from losing.

[The Hung Juror]

I’d say Musk needs to be very careful how much he comments on this situation going forward.

When I think of Elon Musk and all his doings, I now think of Dr Strangelove.

[Lancasterclaret]

https://twitter.com/GirkinGirkin/status ... 1949283328

My Russian isn't great, but I think this is pro-Russian people being evacuated from Kherson

That doesn't suggest its going well for the Russian