Russia Invades

bfcjg · Post by **bfcjg** » Fri Oct 21, 2022 9:14 am

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/army-nothing- ... 56781.html
More front line complaints feeding through.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Fri Oct 21, 2022 1:18 pm

Kyiv Independent: Belarus Defense Ministry announced the arrival of the first group of Russian servicemen to Belarus.

Around 170 Russian tanks, up to 100 artillery, and 200 combat vehicles are also expected to arrive.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... lPDT8Lt03Q

Hipper · Post by **Hipper** » Fri Oct 21, 2022 1:57 pm

elwaclaret wrote: ↑
Fri Oct 21, 2022 1:18 pm
Kyiv Independent: Belarus Defense Ministry announced the arrival of the first group of Russian servicemen to Belarus.

Around 170 Russian tanks, up to 100 artillery, and 200 combat vehicles are also expected to arrive.

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... lPDT8Lt03Q

ISW latest views on this build up - see fifth paragraph:

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... october-20

Hipper · Post by **Hipper** » Fri Oct 21, 2022 2:05 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Wed Oct 19, 2022 7:16 pm
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/stat ... 5304729601

Russian war correspondent in Kherson

Main take aways

- telling everyone that Russia will lose battles
- usual stuff about potential war crimes (chemical weapons and flooding, which could be well be used by Russia, especially the flooding)
- telling everyone that Russian supply situation is critical
- telling everyone that only Ukraine attacks civilian infrastructure

I'd say that Russia will abandon Kherson, and blow the dam at Nerson Kharkova (spelling?)

But its stark how defeatist he is being, so clearly the Russian population are being primed for some very bad news

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63341251

Interesting point made by Zelensky at the end of the article:

President Zelensky said that if the Russians were seriously considering blowing up the Kakhovka dam, it meant they realised they would not merely lose control of Kherson but the entire south including Crimea.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Fri Oct 21, 2022 2:17 pm

Hipper wrote: ↑
Fri Oct 21, 2022 2:05 pm
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63341251

Interesting point made by Zelensky at the end of the article:

President Zelensky said that if the Russians were seriously considering blowing up the Kakhovka dam, it meant they realised they would not merely lose control of Kherson but the entire south including Crimea.

Course, if they lose the water supply to the Crimea, and blame Ukraine for it (which they will), then they will probably use that as justification for more mobilisation decrees or worse

Hipper · Post by **Hipper** » Fri Oct 21, 2022 3:10 pm

But if Russia were to lose Crimea, could Putin survive that?

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Fri Oct 21, 2022 3:43 pm

Hipper wrote: ↑
Fri Oct 21, 2022 3:10 pm
But if Russia were to lose Crimea, could Putin survive that?

I don't think they will

As previously discussed, the land connection (Perekop Isthmus) only has a couple of crossing points and I just can't see how Ukraine can break through there

Course, if there is a total Russian collapse, then its possible

But a collapse like that would almost certainly result in either Putins removal or Russia using weapons that we all hope they never use

claret59 · Post by **claret59** » Sat Oct 22, 2022 5:40 am

I read somewhere that the first casualty of war was 'truth.' That certainly seems to be the case here. Are all these reports of Russian troops being 'next to useless' because of rubbish leadership, poor equipment and nil motivation accurate? If so , why (and how, )are they still in there? How does Putin 'spin' the decision to invade Ukraine in the first place and why do some countries support him in this when it looks to us as naked aggression without rhyme or reason? Even allowing for the fact that Russia is a dictatorship you would think that Putin would be wildly unpopular and the war as well but that does not seem to the the case. What little opinion of the 'man in the street' leaks out about the war still shows a lot of support for Putin and he looks to be secure . The sanctions imposed do not look to have been much of a disadvantage to the regime. Indeed they are prospering because of the global prices of energy which they supply! I am baffled by it all. There must be some kind of hidden agenda.

Corky · Post by **Corky** » Sat Oct 22, 2022 9:21 am

claret59 wrote: ↑
Sat Oct 22, 2022 5:40 am
I read somewhere that the first casualty of war was 'truth.' That certainly seems to be the case here. Are all these reports of Russian troops being 'next to useless' because of rubbish leadership, poor equipment and nil motivation accurate? If so , why (and how, )are they still in there? How does Putin 'spin' the decision to invade Ukraine in the first place and why do some countries support him in this when it looks to us as naked aggression without rhyme or reason? Even allowing for the fact that Russia is a dictatorship you would think that Putin would be wildly unpopular and the war as well but that does not seem to the the case. What little opinion of the 'man in the street' leaks out about the war still shows a lot of support for Putin and he looks to be secure . The sanctions imposed do not look to have been much of a disadvantage to the regime. Indeed they are prospering because of the global prices of energy which they supply! I am baffled by it all. There must be some kind of hidden agenda.

You are of course right. It can be very difficult to dissect truth from fiction or propaganda. We in the UK are seeing the situation from a western perspective. Russia bad Ukraine good. But in recent history Ukraine has been a part of the USSR with significant numbers of Russian speaking people living there. And these people, rightly or wrongly, have been fighting an internal war with Ukraine with some interference and direct help from Russia.
This has then resulted in what we are experiencing now. There will be people in Russia who still support Putin and believe that he his fighting this war to safeguard those Russian speaking Ukrainians, and they will look no further than what the official media is telling them. There will however be others who are able to access other sources of media and they will see what is happening from a western perspective.

However I think today with the abundance of Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) it does become much more difficult to pretend that a defeat is just a tactical withdrawal to a newly prepared defensive line. Almost everything is reportable and reported on with in many cases strong evidence of what has actually happened. But it does throw up the question of why then haven't the Russians capitulated or why haven't Ukraine with all the military stuff that has been donated been able to make more headroom. I think in part the reason for that is the sheer size of the country and it does take time for a country to organise and mobilise for war. We are now seeing the seeds of the re-equiping of Ukraine starting to flourish. And I expect to see further gains by Ukraine.

With regards to the energy issue, it is indeed correct that Russia can no longer hope to sell gas to the west but I believe that both China and India have agreed to purchase some of the Russian surplus at a cheap rate and then themselves sell it on the open market at a much higher rate.

Finally, and something different, I was wondering if this conflict becomes more protracted and if Putin showed no signs of relinquishing his hold on certain territories would the west considerer doing something similar to the occupation of Crimea with Kaliningrad. It would be easy for Poland to invade and it would make a change for them for once being able to have a pop at the Russians.

SurreyClaret · Post by **SurreyClaret** » Sat Oct 22, 2022 9:33 am

I think the Russians lost some of their elite forces early on when aiming for Kiev, but I think the reports of their troops being useless is based on the fact they seem to put their non regular army in the first line or two when defending, or put them in areas where they are just expected to hold ground. The Ukrainians massively fooled them with all the reports of a major offensive in the south then blitzed them in the north, routing the unprepared reservists. Harder to fool them that big again.

It's also hard to know if this is just an operational pause by Ukraine to allow them to refresh their troops and equipment (hopefully it is) but you can't just keep attacking constantly - your troops need rotating and logistics have to catch up and reset in behind the new lines. The Ukrainians are definitely in the Russians heads right now in terms of tactics, and they fear
the special forces and partisan activity behind the Russian front line. Ukraine and their followers have become masters of using social media for that, quite ironic really based on the FSB having done that for years.

I think it's probably also settled down now as the more regular Russian army troops are in defensive positions, now being supplemented by the more recently mobilised, who are just used as cannon fodder tbh. The Russians have dug in better in many areas without the reckless abandon they approached earlier parts of the conflict (made worse by the Russia arrogance).
If the stories about the 3 lines are indeed true, I'd constantly target that 2nd and 3rd line with artillery and drone drops if I were Ukraine. Something like 80-90% of soldiers killed are due to artillery, I do think some people watch a few videos and think it's like Call of Duty!

Nothing much has changed in that the Russians are tired due to low rotation, have low morale, and are still suffering in terms of equipment and logistics. In contrast, Ukraine, increasingly backed by NATO, get stronger in spurts as stuff arrives, and troops fresh from training return. Russian money is of little use when they can't get components, or when nobody but the pariah states wil sell them arms. The winter and the mud will possibly help the Russians by slowing down the counter offensive, as you don't have to defend the off-road areas from vehicles. That said, the more HIMARS and anti missile technology the Ukrainians get, the more they can grind the Russians down.

Kherson is about to be retaken in the coming weeks by all reports, which will have a massive psychological impact on both sides. More progress will be made in the north, as Russia continue to pound away and heavily lose troops in the east (not sure on their reasoning tbh, seems folly) . I hope the Ukrainians are holding back right now, then going for large scale attacks when opportunity arises. Doing this
generally results in bigger gains, giving the Russians no time to dig in further back, but only time will tell if they have the manpower and equipment for that. Ideally they need to surprise the Russians but it wont be so easy this time.

Crimea and to a lesser extent Donbass may be difficult to take and probably left until last - they are the key areas in terms of determining where Putin goes next (hopefully to an early grave).

Lowbankclaret · Post by **Lowbankclaret** » Sat Oct 22, 2022 11:11 am

Still lots of news black out going on but this one came up, looks like the Ukrainians have reach MyLove.

https://twitter.com/georgian_legion/sta ... sKjlsVCICA

Lowbankclaret · Post by **Lowbankclaret** » Sat Oct 22, 2022 11:24 am

On energy, I linked a speech by Ursula in the EU earlier in the week.
She stated the EU has reduced its need for Russian gas by 80%.
The storage facilities are 92% full.
She also talked about EU countries fighting each other for gas pushed up the price nd now the bloc is going to purchase gas for everyone and then they will share it out.
They will also cap gas prices.

What this has done is that the global gas price has nearly halved in the last couple of weeks, the scare stories of bills at £5000, I don’t think will happen now. Several weeks ago it was $9.6 per MMbtu. It’s now $4.99
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

You can see the reduction already in price of electric here in the UK. I see it in the export price on Octopus energy last month it was averaging 35-40p and now it’s down below 20p.

Paul Waine · Post by **Paul Waine** » Sat Oct 22, 2022 12:27 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑
Sat Oct 22, 2022 11:24 am
On energy, I linked a speech by Ursula in the EU earlier in the week.
She stated the EU has reduced its need for Russian gas by 80%.
The storage facilities are 92% full.
She also talked about EU countries fighting each other for gas pushed up the price nd now the bloc is going to purchase gas for everyone and then they will share it out.
They will also cap gas prices.

What this has done is that the global gas price has nearly halved in the last couple of weeks, the scare stories of bills at £5000, I don’t think will happen now. Several weeks ago it was $9.6 per MMbtu. It’s now $4.99
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/natural-gas

You can see the reduction already in price of electric here in the UK. I see it in the export price on Octopus energy last month it was averaging 35-40p and now it’s down below 20p.

Hi Lowbank, the natgas prices you quote are US natural gas. The link you provide also shows prices for the major northwest Europe benchmark, TTF (title transfer facility) in the Netherlands and, separately UK Natgas prices (TTF and UK are in euros and GBP, respectively - also different units from US). Natgas is for the most part shipped through pipelines and the capacity to link markets using LNG carriers is limited by LNG terminal capacity at both the loading and the receiving ends of the LNG train, thus big differences in price between different geographic areas are common. The US doesn't have all LNG terminal capacity required to be able to export "surplus" US natgas production to Europe and other parts of the world that are big buyers of LNG (especially Japan and S. Korea), so US natgas prices responds to "local" supply and demand - including medium term weather forecasts. This is also true, but now to a much lesser extent, in pipeline capacity between UK and Europe. These effects are reflected in the narrative in your link with respect to the 3 separate natgas prices, US, TTF and UK. None of these prices can be considered the "global gas price" - unlike crude oil which, because it is transported by ocean going tankers, has a true global benchmark price, i.e. Brent crude.

Of course, it is good to see TTF and UK natgas prices falling. However a cold winter and little wind (often seen in combination) will push up natgas prices and electricity prices, if it occurs.

Dark Cloud · Post by **Dark Cloud** » Sat Oct 22, 2022 1:54 pm

I actually think the Russian build up in Belarus is simply a smoke screen to distract the Ukrainians from the real front and ensure that they can't afford to put everything into their Eastern/Southern counter offensive. Clearly it forces them to keep more than an eye on the northern border. The chances of opening another front with an invasion there, especially with Belarusian troops in tow are very low, but you can't assume that.

Lowbankclaret · Post by **Lowbankclaret** » Sat Oct 22, 2022 5:10 pm

Paul Waine wrote: ↑
Sat Oct 22, 2022 12:27 pm
Hi Lowbank, the natgas prices you quote are US natural gas. The link you provide also shows prices for the major northwest Europe benchmark, TTF (title transfer facility) in the Netherlands and, separately UK Natgas prices (TTF and UK are in euros and GBP, respectively - also different units from US). Natgas is for the most part shipped through pipelines and the capacity to link markets using LNG carriers is limited by LNG terminal capacity at both the loading and the receiving ends of the LNG train, thus big differences in price between different geographic areas are common. The US doesn't have all LNG terminal capacity required to be able to export "surplus" US natgas production to Europe and other parts of the world that are big buyers of LNG (especially Japan and S. Korea), so US natgas prices responds to "local" supply and demand - including medium term weather forecasts. This is also true, but now to a much lesser extent, in pipeline capacity between UK and Europe. These effects are reflected in the narrative in your link with respect to the 3 separate natgas prices, US, TTF and UK. None of these prices can be considered the "global gas price" - unlike crude oil which, because it is transported by ocean going tankers, has a true global benchmark price, i.e. Brent crude.

Of course, it is good to see TTF and UK natgas prices falling. However a cold winter and little wind (often seen in combination) will push up natgas prices and electricity prices, if it occurs.

Thank you for correcting my obvious lack of knowledge on world gas pricing, I mean that sincerely. I kinda thought it was like oil, but as you point out it’s not. So I should be looking at uk gas and TTF for the impact on us here in the UK.
Thank you again for your knowledge

Lowbankclaret · Post by **Lowbankclaret** » Sat Oct 22, 2022 5:19 pm

Paul Waine wrote: ↑
Sat Oct 22, 2022 12:27 pm
Hi Lowbank, the natgas prices you quote are US natural gas. The link you provide also shows prices for the major northwest Europe benchmark, TTF (title transfer facility) in the Netherlands and, separately UK Natgas prices (TTF and UK are in euros and GBP, respectively - also different units from US). Natgas is for the most part shipped through pipelines and the capacity to link markets using LNG carriers is limited by LNG terminal capacity at both the loading and the receiving ends of the LNG train, thus big differences in price between different geographic areas are common. The US doesn't have all LNG terminal capacity required to be able to export "surplus" US natgas production to Europe and other parts of the world that are big buyers of LNG (especially Japan and S. Korea), so US natgas prices responds to "local" supply and demand - including medium term weather forecasts. This is also true, but now to a much lesser extent, in pipeline capacity between UK and Europe. These effects are reflected in the narrative in your link with respect to the 3 separate natgas prices, US, TTF and UK. None of these prices can be considered the "global gas price" - unlike crude oil which, because it is transported by ocean going tankers, has a true global benchmark price, i.e. Brent crude.

Of course, it is good to see TTF and UK natgas prices falling. However a cold winter and little wind (often seen in combination) will push up natgas prices and electricity prices, if it occurs.

Thank you for the info, having now looked at UK gas, The points are still valid I put forward, but I agree if the wind does not blow and it’s really cold it could go up again.
However, the EU are not going to do the same bidding against each other, so I suspect the energy markets to be calmer, unless Russia blows up the new gas pipeline from Norway.

jos · Post by **jos** » Sun Oct 23, 2022 11:54 am

ROB LEE :-
Crazy helmet camera footage showing a Russian Su-25 pilot ejecting.
From the Russian Fighter Bomber Telegram channel.
youtube.com/watch?v=qkT7Q5…
t.me/fighter_bomber…
https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1584 ... 6fmJAyBsTQ

LeadBelly · Post by **LeadBelly** » Sun Oct 23, 2022 7:09 pm

Following a similar event in a different locality last week - another Russian SU war plane crashing in a Russian residential area (Irkutsk this time).
The fall of the SU30 is so dramatic (falling nose first under gravity), I though the first film I saw of this may be a fake but there are several views of the same event (and aftermath) now.
https://twitter.com/search?q=irkutsk%20 ... yped_query

NewClaret · Post by **NewClaret** » Sun Oct 23, 2022 7:16 pm

jos wrote: ↑
Sun Oct 23, 2022 11:54 am
ROB LEE :-
Crazy helmet camera footage showing a Russian Su-25 pilot ejecting.
From the Russian Fighter Bomber Telegram channel.
youtube.com/watch?v=qkT7Q5…
t.me/fighter_bomber…
https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1584 ... 6fmJAyBsTQ

Crazy footage.

He’s hanging around a lot longer than I would do.

NewClaret · Post by **NewClaret** » Sun Oct 23, 2022 7:18 pm

LeadBelly wrote: ↑
Sun Oct 23, 2022 7:09 pm
Following a similar event in a different locality last week - another Russian SU war plane crashing in a Russian residential area (Irkutsk this time).
The fall of the SU30 is so dramatic (falling nose first under gravity), I though the first film I saw of this may be a fake but there are several views of the same event (and aftermath) now.
https://twitter.com/search?q=irkutsk%20 ... yped_query

This is happening so regularly now it makes me wonder if these are being shot down in Russia? Although no smoke, damage, etc so doesn’t look like like it.

Not sure what’s worse for Russian pilot morale. Knowing you’re likely to be shot down or fall out of the sky anyway.

bfcjg · Post by **bfcjg** » Sun Oct 23, 2022 7:56 pm

https://news.sky.com/story/ukraine-war- ... t-12728437
Russian defence minister ringing round, what are they up to I wonder ?

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Sun Oct 23, 2022 11:13 pm

KYIV Independent: Moscow is preparing for a further Ukrainian counteroffensive in the mostly Russian-occupied Luhansk Oblast.

The U.K. intelligence said that "Russia is making a significant effort to prepare defenses in-depth behind the current front line."

https://twitter.com/kyivindependent/sta ... V1UWBahk5w

bfcjg · Post by **bfcjg** » Mon Oct 24, 2022 12:42 pm

Some missiles hopefully destroying Russian equipment fired from these HIMARS.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1584235704355360769

Paul Waine · Post by **Paul Waine** » Mon Oct 24, 2022 12:55 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑
Sat Oct 22, 2022 5:19 pm
Thank you for the info, having now looked at UK gas, The points are still valid I put forward, but I agree if the wind does not blow and it’s really cold it could go up again.
However, the EU are not going to do the same bidding against each other, so I suspect the energy markets to be calmer, unless Russia blows up the new gas pipeline from Norway.

Hi Lowbank, I've no idea how the EU plans will work, or even if they can work. The last I read a few days back was that France (plus a number of other member states) was very angry with Germany about natgas situation. There's a lot of energy companies involved in buying and selling energy across all of Europe, including EU member states, UK, Norway and others. I find it hard to think that the EU could somehow set up their own energy trading activities covering the needs of all their different member states and add any value to what the professional and experienced energy traders have done for best part of two decades. However, good luck to them. I guess you know that a lot of the natgas storage in Germany has been filled with LNG to that has been delivered to one or other of the 3 UK LNG terminals and transferred through the UK pipelines and the two natgas interconnectors from UK to Belgium and Netherlands, respectively. (Fees have been paid to UK businesses that operate this infrastructure).

This is a good winter when we need the weather to remain warmer than average.

JarrowClaret · Post by **JarrowClaret** » Mon Oct 24, 2022 2:04 pm

bfcjg wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 24, 2022 12:42 pm
Some missiles hopefully destroying Russian equipment fired from these HIMARS.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1584235704355360769

Not HIMARS too many missile launches from a single platform I counted 12 maybe there was more didn’t look like M270 either. so I think these are soviet type mlrs from the look of it probably smerch but that is pure guesswork on my behalf.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Mon Oct 24, 2022 2:39 pm

Am wondering (along with everybody else) on how Russia, with an army low on morale, training and equipment, can successfully pull off a retreat under pressure over a major river with no bridges, without suffering a catastrophic defeat

Closest example (successful) that I can think of is Army Group South managing it over the same River in late 1943, but they had the advantage of Manstein in command and the Russians didn't have HIMARS

Elbarad · Post by **Elbarad** » Mon Oct 24, 2022 3:50 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 24, 2022 2:39 pm
Am wondering (along with everybody else) on how Russia, with an army low on morale, training and equipment, can successfully pull off a retreat under pressure over a major river with no bridges, without suffering a catastrophic defeat

Closest example (successful) that I can think of is Army Group South managing it over the same River in late 1943, but they had the advantage of Manstein in command and the Russians didn't have HIMARS

And the Germans weren't trying to carry every washing machine in Ukraine with them as they left.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q1Mlg8xtbt0

Corky · Post by **Corky** » Tue Oct 25, 2022 2:42 pm

Bit more info from UKDJ

In a Defence Intelligence update, the Ministry iof Defence said that there have “been at least 23 verified losses of Russia’s Ka-52 HOKUM attack helicopter in Ukraine since the invasion”.

“There have been at least 23 verified losses of Russia’s Ka-52 HOKUM attack helicopter in Ukraine since the invasion. This represents over 25% of the Russian Air Force’s in-service fleet of 90 Ka-52s, and nearly half of Russia’s total helicopter losses in Ukraine. Russian attack helicopters have likely suffered particular attrition from Ukrainian man-portable air defence systems (MANPADS), while the helicopters frequently operate with less consistent top-cover from combat jets than they would expect under Russian military doctrine.
Russia is still failing to maintain adequate air superiority in order to reliably carry out effective fixed wing close air support near the front line, and its artillery ammunition is running low. Russian commanders are likely increasingly resorting to conducting high-risk attack helicopter missions as one of the few options available to provide close support for troops in combat.”

Hipper · Post by **Hipper** » Tue Oct 25, 2022 3:32 pm

Elbarad wrote: ↑
Mon Oct 24, 2022 3:50 pm
And the Germans weren't trying to carry every washing machine in Ukraine with them as they left.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q1Mlg8xtbt0

Those Russians are very 'Bold'.

Perhaps the Russians are looking to construct a 'clean' bomb?

upanatem · Post by **upanatem** » Wed Oct 26, 2022 10:44 am

David Murrin, a 'geopolitical forecaster' gives his take on the state of play in Ukraine and his view of the Taiwan situation in this 35-minute podcast:

https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/media/pod ... -relations

bfcjg · Post by **bfcjg** » Wed Oct 26, 2022 12:32 pm

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/russian-anti- ... 36945.html
Anything that slows Russia is welcome.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Oct 26, 2022 3:25 pm

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... 1666794036

Stuff on sanctions

bfcjg · Post by **bfcjg** » Wed Oct 26, 2022 7:02 pm

https://uk.yahoo.com/news/putins-goddau ... 37549.html
https://uk.yahoo.com/news/nuclear-russi ... 29414.html
Couple of issues, Putin doing his usual stirring, BUT , could he press the trigger or will the military stop him ?

GodIsADeeJay81 · Post by **GodIsADeeJay81** » Thu Oct 27, 2022 7:16 am

https://twitter.com/saitomri/status/158 ... fXqSw&s=19

Short thread about russian documents found after their chaotic retreat from the Kharkiv area.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Fri Oct 28, 2022 9:04 am

Putins speech yesterday appeared to show that he's retreating further from reality

His call to arms for all the fruitcakes of the world to unite behind his vision of what the world should be was a particular highlight

NewClaret · Post by **NewClaret** » Fri Oct 28, 2022 9:12 am

Was quite literally the mumbling of a madman.

elwaclaret · Post by **elwaclaret** » Fri Oct 28, 2022 11:08 am

ROB LEE: Regarding nuclear signals from Russia this week: the annual Grom strategic nuclear forces exercise looked pretty routine and Russia notified the US beforehand.

https://twitter.com/ralee85/status/1585 ... 7_kWAUjYhg

Colburn_Claret · Post by **Colburn_Claret** » Fri Oct 28, 2022 12:12 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Fri Oct 28, 2022 9:04 am
Putins speech yesterday appeared to show that he's retreating further from reality

His call to arms for all the fruitcakes of the world to unite behind his vision of what the world should be was a particular highlight

It was a good speech. I'm sure he thought he was helping his cause, but to the rest of the World it just highlights what a tool he is. He adds strength to the West's position, rather than weakens it.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Fri Oct 28, 2022 12:54 pm

Lots of posts on twitter about advances around Svatove and Kreminna

Needs some official confirmation though

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1585949955843182592

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Fri Oct 28, 2022 2:08 pm

https://www.rte.ie/news/ukraine/2022/10 ... a-ukraine/

I think its safe to say that Ireland is probably small enough for Russia to take on but I wouldn't be 100% confident based on their current position

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Fri Oct 28, 2022 4:11 pm

Keeping track of Russian claims of destroyed Ukrainian equipment

Good article on how inflated these are, and why they have to do it

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/10/l ... ssian.html

The highlight being the attempt to justify the war by claiming Ukraine attacked first, and destroying one of their own APCs painted in Ukrainian camouflage as visual confirmation

So far, so good, but they actually managed to use a type of APC that wasn't in Ukrainian service, and considering the huge amount of Russian made equipment in Ukrainian service, that is a hell of a achievement

Taffy on the wing · Post by **Taffy on the wing** » Fri Oct 28, 2022 4:16 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Fri Oct 28, 2022 12:54 pm
Lots of posts on twitter about advances around Svatove and Kreminna

Needs some official confirmation though

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1585949955843182592

Nothing there.

Tribesmen · Post by **Tribesmen** » Fri Oct 28, 2022 6:53 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Fri Oct 28, 2022 2:08 pm
https://www.rte.ie/news/ukraine/2022/10 ... a-ukraine/

I think its safe to say that Ireland is probably small enough for Russia to take on but I wouldn't be 100% confident based on their current position

Don't worry Lancaster , out fishermen will sort out the Russian navy , rough buggers i can tell yer

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Sat Oct 29, 2022 11:52 am

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/status/1 ... 2848716803

At least one conscript taking absolute no s**t

JarrowClaret · Post by **JarrowClaret** » Sat Oct 29, 2022 1:40 pm

It is very interesting that there are reports of the Russian MOD pointing the finger at the Royal Navy for the nord stream explosion. I have no idea if we were involved or not I suspect not but they certainly make a lot of noise about us which is very odd stinks of them picking the smallest guy in a group to have a go at.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Sat Oct 29, 2022 7:37 pm

https://twitter.com/SubBrief/status/1586371492031307776

There are some stunning videos of the drone attacks on Sevastopol today

Hipper · Post by **Hipper** » Sat Oct 29, 2022 7:52 pm

More of Sevastapol:

https://twitter.com/AndrewPerpetua/stat ... 1950721024

Most interesting is the fourth post.

Also this on the Beeb:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63439760

GodIsADeeJay81 · Post by **GodIsADeeJay81** » Sat Oct 29, 2022 11:01 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote: ↑
Fri Oct 28, 2022 2:08 pm
https://www.rte.ie/news/ukraine/2022/10 ... a-ukraine/

I think its safe to say that Ireland is probably small enough for Russia to take on but I wouldn't be 100% confident based on their current position

The Irish when they read that article and see the Russian threats...

: CppY7YDUIAQX2hm.jpg (17.29 KiB) Viewed 1886 times

Lowbankclaret · Post by **Lowbankclaret** » Sat Oct 29, 2022 11:17 pm

Watched a particularly brutal video that has been deleted.
Several Russians are surrendering but one decides to throw a grenade. Which hits a tree branch and bounces back. Bless him he dies in a hail of bullets and the blast from his own grenade.

GodIsADeeJay81 · Post by **GodIsADeeJay81** » Sat Oct 29, 2022 11:20 pm

Lowbankclaret wrote: ↑
Sat Oct 29, 2022 11:17 pm
Watched a particularly brutal video that has been deleted.
Several Russians are surrendering but one decides to throw a grenade. Which hits a tree branch and bounces back. Bless him he dies in a hail of bullets and the blast from his own grenade.

That's one of those stories that you shouldn't really find any humour in.....