Magic Numbers 2024/25

[Vince Fontaine]

I know it’s only one match in but I think the time is right for the magic numbers to start falling. So please could I ask aggi to put the link on.
Thanks in advance.

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[Vince Fontaine]

http://www.uptheclarets.com/messageboar ... c#p1871372

Link to 2022/23 for comparison.
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[Vince Fontaine]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

I hope I’ve got this link right
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[Vince Fontaine]

Bump
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[aggi]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

I hope I’ve got this link right
UTC

I'm surprised that is still working, I've not looked it at since our last Championship season. I'll clean it up a bit

[aggi]

I've added xG into this for those who are interested with a column for under/overperforming xG Goal Difference.

[Vince Fontaine]

Match Day 10

19-20/10/2024

Sheffield Wednesday 0-2 Burnley


Sunderland……………..110
Burnley
Leeds……………………..107
Sheffield Utd ………..107
West Brom …………….106
Blackburn ………………106
Norwich …………………104
Watford …………………104
Middlesbrough ……..102
Bristol City …………..102
Oxford Utd ……………101
Derby …………………..101
Swansea ……………….100
Hull ………………………100
Preston …………………100
Stoke …………………….99
Luton …………………….99
Sheffield Wed………..99
Plymouth ……………….99
Millwall ………………….98
Coventry ……………….96
Cardiff …………………..96
Portsmouth ……………96
QPR ……………………….95

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[Vince Fontaine]

Looking back after our first 10 matches of our last promotion season I must say they look a lot better this time round. Nine teams under 100.

UTC


W/E 18/09/22

Matchday 10

Sheffield United……………………-24…………….115
Norwich ……………………………….-27…………….112
Reading ……………………………….-29……….…….110
Burnley
Sunderland…………………………..-32……….….107
QPR……………………………………..-32…………….107
Blackburn…………………………….-32…………….107
Rotherham………………….……….-30…………….109
Bristol City………………………….-33……………..106
Watford……………………………….-33……………..106
Luton ………………………………….-34……………..105
Wigan…………………………………..-31…………….108
Millwall……………………………….-34………………105
Stoke…………………………………..-35……………..104
Preston………………………………..-35……….…..104
Swansea……………………………….-35…….…....104
Birmingham…………………………-35………………104
Cardiff…………………………………-36……………..103
Blackpool…………………………….-36……………..103
Hull……………………………………..-36……………..103
West Brom…………………………..-37……………..102
Middlesbrough…………………….-37………………102
Huddersfield………………………..-37…………….102
Coventry……………………………..-35……………..104

[fatboy47]

Good lad Vince....or Jack?

[Goddy]

...and at the top end there were 10 teams at 106 points or more last year at this stage, compared to only 5 this time round (which maybe suggests more teams taking points off each other, perhaps, as well as highlighting our strong start).

Whatever, it's a promising start and fingers crossed another 3 points (minimum) off everyone after a victory at Hull tonight........

[Spijed]

...and at the top end there were 10 teams at 106 points or more last year at this stage, compared to only 5 this time round (which maybe suggests more teams taking points off each other, perhaps, as well as highlighting our strong start).

Whatever, it's a promising start and fingers crossed another 3 points (minimum) off everyone after a victory at Hull tonight........

Without looking at the fixtures there's the potential for all but five clubs to be on less than 100 points after tonight

Edit: Scrap that. As Watford played last night that's not possible.

[Vince Fontaine]

Match Day 11

22-23/10/2024

Hull City 1-1 Burnley

Sunderland………………………….-1…….109
Burnley
Leeds …………………………….…..-1……106
West Brom …………….……………-3…..103
Sheffield Utd ……………………..-4……103
Blackburn …………………………..-3…..103
Norwich ……………………………..-3……101
Middlesbrough …………………..-1……101
Watford ………………….…………-4…..100
Bristol City …………………………-3…….99
Oxford ……………………………….-3…….98
Derby ………………………………..-3…….98
Millwall ………………………….….-1…….97
Swansea …………………………….-3…….97
Hull ……………………………………-3…….97
Preston ………………………………-3…….97
Stoke ………………………………..-3…….96
Sheffield Wednesday …….….-3…….96
Luton …………………………………-4….…95
Cardiff ……………………………..-1……..95
Plymouth ………………………….-4……..95
Coventry …………………….…….-3….….93
QPR……………………………………-3………92
Portsmouth ……………………….-4…….92

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[Vince Fontaine]

Match Day 15

8/9/10/11/2024

Burnley 1-0 Swansea

Sunderland………….98
Sheffield Utd ……..98
Leeds…………………..96
Burnley
West Brom……….….92
Watford……………….92
Middlesbrough….….91
Millwall………………..90
Blackburn…………….89
Bristol City…………..89
Swansea……………….86
Derby County……….86
Stoke City…………….86
Norwich City………..85
Sheffield Wed……….85
Oxford Utd…………..84
Coventry City……….83
Plymouth………………83
Hull City……………….82
Preston……….………..82
Luton…………….………82
Cardiff City…………..82
Portsmouth…………..79
QPR……………………….77

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[Commy]

Bump

[Vince Fontaine]

Match Day 20

10/12/2024

Burnley 0-0 Derby

Sheffield Utd…………83
Leeds…………………….82
Burnley
Sunderland……………78
Blackburn……………..78
West Brom…………….73
Middlesbrough………72
Watford…………………75
Swansea………………..68
Norwich…………………67
Bristol City…………….67
Sheffield Wed……….67
Millwall………………….69
Derby…………………….62
Preston………………….63
Luton…………………….63
Coventry……………….62
Stoke…………………….62
QPR……………………….62
Oxford…………….…….62
Portsmouth……………61
Cardiff………………….61
Plymouth………………61
Hull………………………57

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[Vince Fontaine]

Match Day 23

26/12/2024

Sheffield United 0-2 Burnley

Leeds ……………….71
Sheffield Utd…….71
Burnley
Sunderland……….67
Blackburn…………64
Watford…………….63
Middlesbrough….59
West Brom……….58
Sheffield Wed….56
Swansea…………..53
Bristol City……….53
Norwich……………52
Millwall…………….54
Derby……………….50
Coventry………….50
Preston…………….49
QPR………………….48
Luton……………….48
Stoke……………….45
Oxford…………….47
Portsmouth……..49
Hull………………….42
Cardiff…………….44
Plymouth…………44

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[Vince Fontaine]

Match Day 25

01/01/2025

Burnley 0-0 Stoke


Leeds…………………67
Burnley
Sheffield Utd …..64
Sunderland …….…62
Middlesbrough .…55
West Brom ……….54
Blackburn ………..57
Watford …….…….55
Sheffield Wed…..51
Bristol City ……….49
Norwich ……….….48
Swansea …………..48
Millwall ……….……47
Coventry ………….44
QPR…………………..44
Preston …………….44
Derby ……………….42
Oxford ……………..45
Stoke ………………..41
Luton ………………..40
Portsmouth ……….44
Hull …………………..37
Cardiff ………………40
Plymouth …………..37


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[Dark Cloud]

My maths has never been my strong point (in fact I'm still searching for my strong point of any kind and I'm 66!) and I've regularly struggled with the magic numbers thread, but my perception of them is that they probably work better in a relegation scrap than a promotion race. When we were in the Prem we just needed 3 other teams to hit zero and it was champagne time. In a promotion race, like this one, we need every other team to reach zero bar one for us to go up automatically. Is that correct?

[Jel]

My maths has never been my strong point (in fact I'm still searching for my strong point of any kind and I'm 66!) and I've regularly struggled with the magic numbers thread, but my perception of them is that they probably work better in a relegation scrap than a promotion race. When we were in the Prem we just needed 3 other teams to hit zero and it was champagne time. In a promotion race, like this one, we need every other team to reach zero bar one for us to go up automatically. Is that correct?

I think that's correct

[Goddy]

I think that's correct too, however the biggest difference is seeing teams drop off at the bottom ie the number of teams that can catch us keeps reducing till it becomes (hopefully) only one team, or better still, no-one that can catch us.

In theory, the first of those teams that will drop off could happen in 6 games time and could see up to Derby unable to catch us!!!!

[Vince Fontaine]

Match Day 26

04/01/2025

Blackburn 0-1 Burnley

Leeds……………….62
Burnley
Sheffield Utd ….61
Sunderland …….59
Middlesbrough .50
West Brom …….49
Blackburn ……..51
Bristol City ……46
Watford …….….49
Sheffield Wed .46
Norwich …….….45
Swansea ……….43
Millwall …….….42
Preston …………39
Coventry ……..38
QPR ……………..41
Oxford …………40
Derby ………….36
Stoke ………….36
Luton ………….37
Portsmouth ..41
Hull …………….32
Cardiff ……….35
Plymouth ……32

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[Vince Fontaine]

Match Day 27

W/E. 17/18/19-01-2025

Burnley 0-0 Sunderland


Leeds ………………..61
Sheffield Utd …….60
Burnley
Sunderland ……….56
Blackburn …………47
West Brom ……….46
Middlesbrough ….46
Watford …………..46
Bristol City ……..42
Sheffield Wed …42
Norwich ………….41
QPR ………………..40
Swansea …………39
Coventry ……….37
Oxford …………..37
Preston ………….36
Millwall …………38
Stoke …………….33
Derby ……………32
Cardiff ………….32
Hull ………………31
Portsmouth ….34
Luton …………..31
Plymouth …….26

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[Commy]

Luton now on 0 with Derby and Plymouth on 1.

[distortiondave]

Luton now on 0 with Derby and Plymouth on 1.

So we might be safe from relegation today?
That's one hurdle safely cleared then.

[Vince Fontaine]

As stated above we now have 1 team, Luton, on zero and we could be safe today. Here is the full list of magic numbers.

22/02/2025

Leeds ………………..44
Sheffield Utd …….42
Burnley
Sunderland………….34
Blackburn ………….23
Bristol ………………..18
West Brom ………….20
Coventry …………….19
Watford ………………17
Sheffield Wed …….14
Middlesbrough …….16
Norwich ………….……16
QPR ……………………..16
Millwall ………………..14
Preston …………………14
Oxford ………………….10
Swansea …………………9
Portsmouth …………….8
Stoke ……………………..10
Cardiff …………………..7
Hull ………………………..5
Derby ……………………..1
Plymouth …………………1
Luton ……………………….0

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[Vince Fontaine]

Just for a little context. Before we played last night we had 13 matches left to play. So I’ve looked back 13 matches to match day 20 to see how much each team’s magic number has dropped. We then won reducing all teams by 3 and Sheffield Wed by 6.

Leeds………………..-38
Sheffield Utd…….-41
Burnley
Sunderland……….-44
Blackburn ………..-55
Bristol City……….-49
West Brom………..-53
Coventry…………..-43
Watford…………….-58
Sheffield Wed…..-53
Middlesbrough….-56
Norwich…………….-51
QPR…………………..-46
Millwall……………..-55
Preston……………..-49
Oxford……………….-52
Swansea…………….-59
Portsmouth………..-53
Stoke………………….-52
Cardiff……………….-54
Hull City…………….-52
Derby…………………-61
Plymouth…………..-60
Luton………………….-63

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[Vince Fontaine]

With just Sheffield Utd to play Leeds. Here are the up to date magic numbers

Leeds………………….44
Sheffield Utd……..42
Burnley
Sunderland………..31
West Brom…………20
Blackburn………….20
Coventry…………..19
Bristol City……….18
Norwich………….…17
Watford…………….16
Millwall…………….14
Sheffield Wed…..14
Middlesbrough….16
QPR…………………..13
Preston……………..11
Swansea…………….9
Portsmouth……….8
Oxford……………….7
Stoke…………………7
Hull City…………..5
Cardiff……………..5

Plymouth………..-1
Derby……………..-2
Luton……………..-3

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[Vince Fontaine]

Match Day 35

01/03 to 05/03

Cardiff 1-2 Burnley


Leeds……………………-5…39
Sheffield Utd……….-3…36
Burnley
Sunderland………….-3….28
Coventry……………..-3….16
West Brom…………..-5….15
Bristol City…………..-3…15
Blackburn…………….-5….15
Middlesbrough……..-3….13
Watford………………..-5….12
Norwich………………..-5….11
Millwall…………………-6…..8
Sheffield Wed…….…-6……8
QPR……………………….-6…..7
Preston………………….-5…..6
Swansea………………..-5…..4
Portsmouth……………-6…….2
Oxford Utd…………….-6…..1

Hull City………………..-3….-1
Stoke……………………..-5….-1
Cardiff…………………..-6…..-1
Luton……………………..-3…..-6
Plymouth……………….-6…..-7
Derby……………………..-6….-8

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[Vince Fontaine]

Come Sunday evening I’m hoping 3 more teams will be on negative magic numbers
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[Vince Fontaine]

Should have read Saturday evening not Sunday. Can’t edit sorry

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[Vince Fontaine]

Match Day 36

08/03/2025

Burnley 4-0 Luton

Leeds………………….-6……….33
Sheffield Utd……..-3……….33
Burnley
Sunderland………..-3………..25
Coventry…………….-3………..13
West Brom………….-3………..12
Bristol City………..-5…………10
Blackburn………….-6…………..9
Middlesbrough…..-6…………..7
Norwich…………….-5……………6
Watford…………….-6……………6
Millwall…………….-3……………5
Sheffield Wed…..-3…………..5
QPR…………………..-6……………1
Swansea…………..-3…………….1

Preston…………….-6…………….0
Portsmouth……..-3…………….-1
Oxford…………….-5…………….-4
Hull…………………-5……………..-6
Stoke………………-6……………..-7
Cardiff …….…….-6…………….-7
Derby …………..-3……………..-11
Luton ……………-6……………..-12
Plymouth ……..-6…………….-13

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[Spijed]

So a chance to at least be safe in the play-offs after this weekend.

[Commy]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110

That's Rovers out of the equation.

[Vince Fontaine]

Match Day 37 and 38

11/03/2025

Burnley 1-1 West Brom

15/03/2025

Swansea 0-2 Burnley


Leeds…………….-6………..27
Burnley
Sheffield Utd…-6………..27
Sunderland …..-9……….16
Coventry ……….-7………..6
West Brom …….-8………..4
Bristol City …….-6……….4
Middlesbrough… -6……..1

Blackburn ………-10…….-1
Watford ………….-7….….-1
Millwall ……..…..-7…….-2
Sheffield Wed ….-4……..1
Norwich …………..-10…..-4
Preston …………….-6…….-6
QPR ………………….-9…….-8
Swansea …………..-10….-9
Portsmouth ……..-10….-11
Oxford ……………..-7…..-11
Hull City ………….-6…….-12
Stoke City ……….-7…….-14
Cardiff …………….-7…….-14
Derby ……………..-4…….-15
Luton ……………..-6……..-18
Plymouth ………..-6…….-20

Sheffield Wed still to play Sheffield Utd

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[Ric_C]

13 seasons on the trot we have finished above Rovers

[mdd2]

WBA is 421 depending on their result against Bristol who are also 124, meaning assuming our goal difference holds up we are already in the play offs doesn't it?

[mdd2]

WBA is 421 depending on their result against Bristol who are also 124, meaning assuming our goal difference holds up we are already in the play offs doesn't it?

And then Sunderland playing both WBA and Coventry also helps although the important results are ours, DL and Blades and who ends up in the top two.

[Vince Fontaine]

Match Day 39

29/03/2025

Burnley 1-0 Bristol City

Sheffield Utd…………..-3………24
Leeds……………………….-5……..22
Burnley
Sunderland……………..-3………13

Coventry………………….-6……..0
West Brom……………….-6…….-2
Middlesbrough ………..-3…….-2
Bristol City……………….-6…….-2
Watford …………………..-5…….-6
Norwich …………………..-3…….-7
Blackburn ………………..-6…….-7
Sheffield Wed ………….-5…….-7
Millwall …………………….-6…….-8
Preston …………..(38)…-3…….-9
QPR ………………………….-6…..-14
Swansea …………………..-5……-14
Portsmouth ………………-3…….-14
Stoke ………………………..-3…..-17
Oxford ………………………-6……-17
Hull City …………………..-6…..-18
Cardiff ……………………..-5……-19
Derby …………….(38)…..-3…..-18
Luton ………………………..-3……-21
Plymouth ………………….-5…….-25

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[Vince Fontaine]

After match day 34 when Leeds had beaten Sheffield Utd
The magic numbers were

Leeds……………..44
Sheffield Utd….39
Burnley
Sunderland …….31


So that means in 5 matches the magic numbers have dropped by
Sheffield Utd…….-15…..24
Leeds………………..-22……22
Burnley
Sunderland………..-18….13

In those 5 matches we’ve affected each team by 13.

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[Vince Fontaine]

Since match day 34. The last 5 matches Blackburn’s magic number has dropped by 27 from 20 to -7, with us affecting it by 13 and the other 14 from them. The most a magic number can drop by in 5 matches is 30!!

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[Bullabill]

I'd like to know how this works. I think I understood it once but I've lost the plot. Is there a treatise somewhere I could look at?

[CharlieinNewMexico]

I'd like to know how this works. I think I understood it once but I've lost the plot. Is there a treatise somewhere I could look at?

I’ve been following this for about 5 years and I still don’t understand it

[mdd2]

mutiply the remaining games of each club by 3. add them to the clubs points total.
So as an example Sunderalnd have 72 points and can get another 21=93. We have 81 points so need 13 points to get to 94 points . Coventry have 59 so can get to 59+21=80 points so cant catch us and we need 0 points to stay above them.
Leeds can reach 102 points so we need 22 points to get above them after 46 games. If we both win our next matches we then need 19 points but if we draw and Leeds win we would need 21 points. The first figure in the Table is what that day or weeks results has done for our points needed. As we won all clubs will have at least -3, but if they lost it will be -6 and -5 if they drew
So before the Bristol game we needed 27 points to get above Leeds. They had 80 points and could get to 104, we had 78 and needed 27 (impossible) to get to 105. As we won and they drew the points we now need are 22 points (still impossible) to beat Leeds possible total of 102.
That final figure is the points we theoretically need to be above a club. If 0 or minus it means we stay above them after 46 games no matter.
It is a complicated way of showing what I imagine we all do. Look at the table see what Sunderalnd can get and how many points we need theoretically to stay third.
Rovers fan will be bricking it as presently they need 10 points from 7 games to be sure of staying up.
But those of us who know this league and Stan's predictions know that 52 points is usually enough to stay up so they are OK.
Derby's 9 points in last 3 games and maybe another 3 tonight will have clubs from Stoke downwards sweating.
So magic numbers is Shakespearian "Much ado about nothing"

[Tribesmen]

I am glad someone explained it , but I seems a lot of work as it would be easy to say we need to have one point better than Leeds to go up as it stands

[bfccrazy]

I am glad someone explained it , but I seems a lot of work as it would be easy to say we need to have one point better than Leeds to go up as it stands

It keeps track over the season though not just when there are a few games to go any it's easy to work out as we're only chasing a couple of teams.

It gets exciting at this point of the season but some of us saddos follow this over the season

[Row x]

Football is a simple game

[CharlieinNewMexico]

mutiply the remaining games of each club by 3. add them to the clubs points total.
So as an example Sunderalnd have 72 points and can get another 21=93. We have 81 points so need 13 points to get to 94 points . Coventry have 59 so can get to 59+21=80 points so cant catch us and we need 0 points to stay above them.
Leeds can reach 102 points so we need 22 points to get above them after 46 games. If we both win our next matches we then need 19 points but if we draw and Leeds win we would need 21 points. The first figure in the Table is what that day or weeks results has done for our points needed. As we won all clubs will have at least -3, but if they lost it will be -6 and -5 if they drew
So before the Bristol game we needed 27 points to get above Leeds. They had 80 points and could get to 104, we had 78 and needed 27 (impossible) to get to 105. As we won and they drew the points we now need are 22 points (still impossible) to beat Leeds possible total of 102.
That final figure is the points we theoretically need to be above a club. If 0 or minus it means we stay above them after 46 games no matter.
It is a complicated way of showing what I imagine we all do. Look at the table see what Sunderalnd can get and how many points we need theoretically to stay third.
Rovers fan will be bricking it as presently they need 10 points from 7 games to be sure of staying up.
But those of us who know this league and Stan's predictions know that 52 points is usually enough to stay up so they are OK.
Derby's 9 points in last 3 games and maybe another 3 tonight will have clubs from Stoke downwards sweating.
So magic numbers is Shakespearian "Much ado about nothing"

Thanks!

[Vince Fontaine]

Match Day 40

05/04/2025

Coventry City 1-2 Burnley

Burnley
Sheffield Utd……….-6……..18
Leeds…………………..-5………17
Sunderland…………..-3……..10

No one else matters now!!!

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[Vince Fontaine]

After match day 34 when Leeds had beaten Sheffield Utd
The magic numbers were

Leeds……………..44
Sheffield Utd….39
Burnley
Sunderland …….31

So over the last 6 matches and with only 6 matches to go the magic numbers have dropped by

Burnley
Sheffield Utd……….-21……18
Leeds……………………-27……17
Sunderland…………..-21…..10

In those matches we’ve affected each team’s magic number by 16.

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[Vince Fontaine]

Match Day 41

08/04/2025

Derby 0-1 Burnley

Leeds…………….…-1……….16
Burnley
Sheffield Utd ….-4……….14
Sunderland……..-3………….7

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