A Second Sweaty Referendum

[Quickenthetempo]

There's a lot of different figures banded about for the UK but if it is 4 trillion and Scotland leave us that should lose 1 trillion straight away. How good would that be?

[Spiral]

In case anyone is short of time, I've got a quick tl;dr for you on the last ten posts of this thread.

-Does Sturgeon have a cock?
-Kick 'em out
-Does Sturgeon have a cock?
-Aliens
-Usefulness of Surgeon's imaginary cock
-Clarification on preferred pejoratives
-Boring stuff about Basque/Catalonia
-I don't quite understand this one but I think it's a projection of the 'fear of a foreign oppressor' routine successfully used throughout history(???)
-More Basque/Catalonia
-I don't quite understand this one but I think it's akin to claiming a victory for weight loss by way of cutting off your arm(???)

Ha! And here's me thinking political discourse in this country is dead.

[Imploding Turtle]

There's a lot of different figures banded about for the UK but if it is 4 trillion and Scotland leave us that should lose 1 trillion straight away. How good would that be?

What are you talking about?

[Sidney1st]

What are you talking about?

National debt and handing some to Scotland as a leaving present if they decide to break up with us.

That's how it works when relationships end, the debt gets shared out.

[nil_desperandum]

In case anyone is short of time, I've got a quick tl;dr for you on the last ten posts of this thread.

-Boring stuff about Basque/Catalonia

-More Basque/Catalonia

Ha! And here's me thinking political discourse in this country is dead.

So does the discussion of the Basques, Catalans and other nationalist groups in a thread about Scottish nationalism not count as political discourse?
You're correct on the other points of course, but I can't see why a rational exploration of the parallels (or non-parallels) between minority "nationalities" in other parts of Europe and the Scots shouldn't be debated on here. (Even if just to conclude that the historical situations and context are very different and the comparison therefore pretty irrelevant)

[Paul Waine]

So does the discussion of the Basques, Catalans and other nationalist groups in a thread about Scottish nationalism not count as political discourse?
You're correct on the other points of course, but I can't see why a rational exploration of the parallels (or non-parallels) between minority "nationalities" in other parts of Europe and the Scots shouldn't be debated on here. (Even if just to conclude that the historical situations and context are very different and the comparison therefore pretty irrelevant)

I met a Spanish guy a few weeks ago, born in north west Spain, "the Basque country." His story is that the "Basque language" was created in early 1900s as part of a political campaign - otherwise there is no difference between Basque people and the rest of the Spain. Interesting to hear a local's perspective.

[nil_desperandum]

I met a Spanish guy a few weeks ago, born in north west Spain, "the Basque country." His story is that the "Basque language" was created in early 1900s as part of a political campaign - otherwise there is no difference between Basque people and the rest of the Spain. Interesting to hear a local's perspective.

Hi Paul,
I think he may have had an anti-Basque agenda. My understanding is that the Basque language is a pre-Indo-European language of prehistoric origin that has no connection to any other in the world. It certainly goes back to 16,000 BC, and there is documentary written evidence going back to Roman times. I'm not suggesting, of course, that this gives the Basques any rights of independence, just that you have to be careful of instinctively accepting what people say.
He possibly meant that there was a campaign to revive the Basque language around 1900, as, of course had happened with several other European languages in the previous few decades. (notably - e.g. Czech)

[Lancasterclaret]

Nil desperandum is spot on. I'm guessing you were speaking to someone who was originally from Castile or thereabouts. They are very touchy about anything to do with Basques or Catalans.

Interesting that Catalonia is the wealthiest part of Spain, and it wants to break away. Scotland is certainly not the most wealthiest part of the UK!

[Quickenthetempo]

What are you talking about?

I was saying how good it would be to lose 1/4 of the national debt if Scotland leave Britain.

How much do you think they should have to pay?

[Lancasterclaret]

Its like Brexit Quick, there is no economic argument that stacks up in favour of independance.

But like brexit, its not about facts and stuff like that, its about just how much bullshit you can persuade either side to swallow.

See this morning, the start realities of a non-deal with the EU have been laid out by David Davis

10% tariffs on cars, 30-40% on food.

Sounds great that

[Lancasterclaret]

Oh, and we won't have access to the EHIC card when we holiday in Europe as well.

Ace.

But hey! Blue passports!

[Sidney1st]

Food goes up every year in cost and we're in the EU....

Cars increase in price too as they get more advanced.

How many people use the EHIC card, let alone know what it is?

[nil_desperandum]

Food goes up every year in cost and we're in the EU....

Cars increase in price too as they get more advanced.

How many people use the EHIC card, let alone know what it is?

I just checked, and apparently about half a million travel to Europe each year without one, but that's a tiny percentage of those who holiday or work in Europe. (Around 50 millions visits in 2015 I think, though obviously some people travel more than once per year).
According to Martin Lewis over 5 million expire and have to be renewed each year, so that gives some idea of how many are in circulation.

[Lancasterclaret]

Sidney, I'm not sure you understand the impact of tariffs that high on British business.

[Sidney1st]

Sidney, I'm not sure you understand the impact of tariffs that high on British business.

Yes actually I do.

All the businesses who decided to get their goods in Europe because it was cheaper then the UK will just go find it from somewhere else in the world instead quite simply.
My company does it.

If prices go up after that then it's going to be the normal inflation rates.

Prices have been going up even before Brexit deal has been struck, it was in the media recently remember?

[Lancasterclaret]

The you will understand that it works both ways. Thats why people have trade deals to avoid getting hit by tariffs like this.

Don't get me wrong, not having a deal is the worst case scenario and I'm sure even this bunch in power are capable of understanding that, but its still a risk that wasn't there before.

[Sidney1st]

They'll get a deal of some sort.

Right now it's all gobbing off at each other to impress the voters during the initial break up.
When everyone's calmed down they'll get together and work it out.

The EU don't want other countries to leave so they're posturing and arm waving.
The UK don't want their voters to think they'll roll over for the EU and are doing the same.

[box_of_frogs]

On the OP, thank chuff I'm leaving Scotland in the next month. I really can't be ar$ed with all the willy waving again, although it's a shame I can't vote 'No' just to remind wee Nicola what I think of the SNP.

[IanMcL]

My lady friend also tells me that Basque people are distinctive too.

[nil_desperandum]

Yes actually I do.


Prices have been going up even before Brexit deal has been struck, it was in the media recently remember?

True, but don't you think that this is in a large part due to the devaluation of sterling after the Brexit vote?
Good for exports, and for the stock market who tend to work in dollars, but pushes up the cost of imports and therefore bad for the ordinary working family, and businesses who import more than they export.

[Right_winger]

Sidney, I'm not sure you understand the impact of tariffs that high on British business.

If there are tariffs imposed we will win hands down.
We import more than we export to the EU.

also we are a net contributor to the EU budget. Thats a fair crack of money saved right there again.

If you can't see that then you don't want to see it.

[Lancasterclaret]

The economic arguments for Brexit do not stack up, never have done, never will do.

If you want to leave because of immigration, or centralisation concerns in Brussels, then that is fine, it is very hard to argue against those points.

Economically? Not a chance, it will cost British jobs, businesses and living standards in the short, medium and probably long term.

I'm sure everyone on here is well aware of that, but think its a price worth paying. I (and others) don't.

[Sidney1st]

You don't know that it will have a negative effect, it's all pure speculation, even by the experts.

[Lancasterclaret]

And we are going into these negotiations with a very, very slim majority for the Conservatives.

Look at what has happened in the last hour with regards to the NICs contributions for the self-employed.

Imagine what would happen if Labour suddenly developed some balls and started doing its job?

[Lancasterclaret]

Which is more likely to have an effect economically Sid?

Staying as we are (not an option I know, but hypothetically!)

Or spending a fortune and up to ten years (or more, but probably not less) sorting all this out.

[nil_desperandum]

If there are tariffs imposed we will win hands down.
We import more than we export to the EU.

also we are a net contributor to the EU budget. Thats a fair crack of money saved right there again.

If you can't see that then you don't want to see it.

That's an over-simplication because we currently export to 27 different EU countries, so each one would be hit a bit, (some more than others), whereas we would feel the full force of tariffs on our own. If there are tariffs it's most likely that everyone will lose, that's why the single market has been a good idea.
It's true that we are a net contributor, but most of things that have been promised post-brexit will cost money, so until we have some idea of the sort of deal we might have then it is impossible to estimate how much the net saving would be.
One thing is for sure, I 'm not aware of anyone on the leave side now who is saying that there will be a massive surplus available to feed into the NHS.

[Paul Waine]

I'm puzzled.

Why are a lot of you arguing that the UK only trades with the 27 member states of the EU? What about trade with the rest of the world?

Didn't we give up our New Zealand lamb when we joined EEC (and CAP)? Similarly, Caribbean fruit and sugar cane and lots more besides?

Doesn't the EU operate with external trade barriers with the rest of the world?

How does the UK's contribution to EU budgets compare with the costs of WTO import duties?

[nil_desperandum]

I'm puzzled.

Why are a lot of you arguing that the UK only trades with the 27 member states of the EU? What about trade with the rest of the world?

Who has argued that point? I can't see it anywhere, although recent posts have been concerned specifically with the impact of tariffs on EU goods and vice versa, because that was the point raised by one poster.

[Paul Waine]

Who has argued that point? I can't see it anywhere, although recent posts have been concerned specifically with the impact of tariffs on EU goods and vice versa, because that was the point raised by one poster.

Hi nil_d, but if you read what is posted it seems to be "out of EU = economically bad..." without any thought to the costs that will be saved by leaving and the better terms of trade with the rest of the world.

In a similar vein, everyone argues that the NHS is the best health care system in the world - because its free at the point of use - without looking at health care systems in other countries that produce better health outcomes and are organised differently.

[quoonbeatz]

i've only skimmed the last couple of posts of this thread but if anyone's seen what David Davis has been saying this morning, this country is absolutely ******.

he has no idea whatsoever what he's doing.

[Lancasterclaret]

Notice he's been saying it 24 hours AFTER the last possible obstacle to Brexit has been passed as well.

They know that the people who voted for this just don't care, or don't understand, or are not going to be affected by the consequences.

When you are telling a another bunch of MPs, with full public access and are quite happy to say "don't know" to questions when it is your job to know, then the only conclusion you possibly draw is that we are heading into this with the same sort of plan that Baldrick was famous for coming out with.

[Sidney1st]

Which is more likely to have an effect economically Sid?

Staying as we are (not an option I know, but hypothetically!)

Or spending a fortune and up to ten years (or more, but probably not less) sorting all this out.

I don't actually know, I'll be honest.

It's all new territory leaving the EU, I can't recall anyone else doing it.

[taio]

They know that the people who voted for this just don't care, or don't understand, or are not going to be affected by the consequences.

I voted Remain so god knows what those who voted Brexit would make of a such an arrogant and contemptuous statement. I thought you were better than that Lancaster.

[JohnMcGreal]

i've only skimmed the last couple of posts of this thread but if anyone's seen what David Davis has been saying this morning, this country is absolutely ******.

he has no idea whatsoever what he's doing.

It's genuinely frightening.

[Lancasterclaret]

"Don't care" can mean anything. Ringo doesn't care for example, he's got his reasons and they are more important to him than anything esle

"Don't understand" - I don't understand a lot of this, I don't think anybody really understands everything to do with it, as its so complex

"Not affected by it" - if you are well off now, then you won't be affected by it, so again, valid

I didn't mean to offend anyone! So apologies if it comes across that way.

Point I was trying to make is that the Govt have a clear run now, so don't even have to pretend that the arguments they all trotted out before are clearly bogus.

[taio]

"Don't care" can mean anything. Ringo doesn't care for example, he's got his reasons and they are more important to him than anything esle

"Don't understand" - I don't understand a lot of this, I don't think anybody really understand everything to do with it, as its so complex

"Not affected by it" - if you are well off now, then you won't be affected by it, so again, valid

I didn't mean to offend anyone! So apologies if it comes across that way.

Point I was trying to make is that the Govt have a clear run now, so don't even have to pretend that the arguments they all trotted out before are clearly bogus.

No need to apologise - I wasn't offended...just a little disappointed because there's usually some balance to your argument.

"Don't care" - singling out individuals whether correct or not tars everyone with the same brush

"Don't understand" - quite. So why tie it to those who voted Brexit.

"Not affected by it" - some remainers may not be affected too. But the same applies - nobody knows the extent to which individuals will be affected.

Framing it how you did suggested those descriptions only apply to those who voted Brexit.

[Lancasterclaret]

Well, to be fair that kinda my target audience!

The govt have a mandate from the referendum to leave the EU. My point was that now its all done and dusted and can't be stopped, they have just stopped pretending to defend things they know that they can't.

All David Davis performance did today was prove that the fears that people like me have over this whole thing are justified, and that this lot don't have a plan yet to sort it all out ( I appreciate that they have only had nine months, but still, there were some pretty basic questions in there)

[Bacchus]

Notice he's been saying it 24 hours AFTER the last possible obstacle to Brexit has been passed as well.

Remarkable that the passing of the A50 bill happened just before Davis was grilled by (some, at least) of the Brexit committee. How on Earth this sequence wasn't challenged is beyond me. I've only skim read what was said but it is genuinely terrifying. There's been no economic assessment of the 'no deal' scenario, which is absolutely staggering given that it's the one possibility that isn't subject to negotiation and that May has been banging on about no deal being better than a bad deal since even she got bored of saying 'Brexit means Brexit.' What the hell has Davis been doing for the last 9 months if not assessing the various scenarios and their possible outcomes?

It all feels a bit like I'm on a bed, waiting for open heart surgery and counting down having been anaesthetised and the last thing I hear is the surgeon walking into the room and everybody shouting "Hi, Dr Nick!"

[Caballo]

It's genuinely frightening.

it is genuinely terrifying

I hope that's hyperbole gents and you're not both cowering behind your settees!

[Sidney1st]

According to some polls, Sturgeon could well get her arse handed to her if she holds another referendum on independance.

[Spiral]

So does the discussion of the Basques, Catalans and other nationalist groups in a thread about Scottish nationalism not count as political discourse?
You're correct on the other points of course, but I can't see why a rational exploration of the parallels (or non-parallels) between minority "nationalities" in other parts of Europe and the Scots shouldn't be debated on here. (Even if just to conclude that the historical situations and context are very different and the comparison therefore pretty irrelevant)

Oh, I completely agree with you, nil. (It was me that brought Spain up again responding to a point made on page three). I found the tonal shift and the fact that those points you and I made were nestled in amongst the others I mentioned to be quite funny.

[Colburn_Claret]

That's an over-simplication because we currently export to 27 different EU countries, so each one would be hit a bit, (some more than others), whereas we would feel the full force of tariffs on our own. If there are tariffs it's most likely that everyone will lose, that's why the single market has been a good idea.
It's true that we are a net contributor, but most of things that have been promised post-brexit will cost money, so until we have some idea of the sort of deal we might have then it is impossible to estimate how much the net saving would be.
One thing is for sure, I 'm not aware of anyone on the leave side now who is saying that there will be a massive surplus available to feed into the NHS.

If they'd just left it alone as a single market, which is what we signed up to, we wouldn't have needed a referendum. I've nothing against Europe but the EU......... They've just gone too far, and all their rhetoric is to go even farther. Whatever the economic future holds, Brexit is still the best thing we could have done.

[Colburn_Claret]

According to some polls, Sturgeon could well get her arse handed to her if she holds another referendum on independance.

That would be so sweet if true. Before she joined SNP she came across as quite likable. But just like Tony Blair she seems to have morphed into a characature of herself.

[Right_winger]

According to some polls, Sturgeon could well get her arse handed to her if she holds another referendum on independance.

The polls have consistently never favoured indepenance.
The SNP are failing as an administration and another Indy campaign is the perfect distraction for them. Brexit just so happens to be the latest excuse.

The majority of people up here don't want another campaign as the last one was full of bigoted bile from those hardcore supporters.

[Sidney1st]

That would be so sweet if true. Before she joined SNP she came across as quite likable. But just like Tony Blair she seems to have morphed into a characature of herself.

It's times like these I wish Spitting Image was still going.

[Spijed]

The polls have consistently never favoured indepenance.
The SNP are failing as an administration and another Indy campaign is the perfect distraction for them. Brexit just so happens to be the latest excuse.

The majority of people up here don't want another campaign as the last one was full of bigoted bile from those hardcore supporters.

They'll still wipe the floor with everyone else at the next election. The SNP are likely to win every seat next time.

[Bacchus]

I hope that's hyperbole gents and you're not both cowering behind your settees!

I might cower behind it for a while until Davis unleashes his economic destruction on us all and I need to use it for fuel or something.

Hopefully he'll be removed from post and we'll ask a grown up to take over before we get to that point though.

[nil_desperandum]

If they'd just left it alone as a single market, which is what we signed up to, we wouldn't have needed a referendum. I've nothing against Europe but the EU......... They've just gone too far, and all their rhetoric is to go even farther. Whatever the economic future holds, Brexit is still the best thing we could have done.

Hi Colburn. As you will probably be aware I was a committed remainer, but that doesn't mean that I disagree with much that you have written there. Hardly anyone thinks that everything is wonderful about the EU, but to many of us, it still seems a better option than the alternatives. So far as I and many others (presumably 48% + of the population) are concerned, its the uncertainty of the country's economic future outside the Single Market that persuades us that - despite the very failings that you identify, large areas of the country and especially the poorer areas and poorer people are going to be hit economically. (And probably not in a minor or inconsequential way).

[Sidney1st]

No ones certain though, its all speculation you forgot to add.

[ClaretMoffitt]

Hi Colburn. As you will probably be aware I was a committed remainer, but that doesn't mean that I disagree with much that you have written there. Hardly anyone thinks that everything is wonderful about the EU, but to many of us, it still seems a better option than the alternatives. So far as I and many others (presumably 48% + of the population) are concerned, its the uncertainty of the country's economic future outside the Single Market that persuades us that - despite the very failings that you identify, large areas of the country and especially the poorer areas and poorer people are going to be hit economically. (And probably not in a minor or inconsequential way).

Most of the people who think everything about the EU is wonderful have absolutely no idea what it does. They just associate it with Europe and progressive-ism with no real substance. They are a minority of course, but there is a good amount of them, particularly among young people.