O/T - Dutch report into Brexit and recommendations

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 10:14 am

On twitter, but worth a read if you are into that kind of thing.

https://twitter.com/remkorteweg/status/ ... 7822863362" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 10:17 am

http://aiv-advies.nl/976#advice-summary" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 10:18 am

Not once has Gibraltor having to leave the EU popped into my head in all this.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 10:18 am

The twitter summary is easier to read Sid, not least because its in English!

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 10:19 am

Google auto translates the page, but it's still odd to read.

claretdom · Post by **claretdom** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 10:20 am

Sidney1st wrote:Google auto translates the page, but it's still odd to read.

Click the Steve McClaren translates version its easier to read.

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 10:20 am

So they want a hard stance in some aspects but not in others ?
Am I reading that right?

They also want the EU to be unified during Brexit and to strengthen ties with the rest of the EU.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 10:23 am

Basically yeah

The non-passporting bit is the real bit of interest.

I think its important that one of our closer trading partners in the EU is recommending that.

Its our only trump card really (Londons financial sector), and if the EU is going to play hardball over that, then potentially we have a problem.

We have a massive, world class service industry, and we need that market, or we really could take a huge hit.

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 11:03 am

Lancasterclaret wrote: The non-passporting bit is the real bit of interest.

I think its important that one of our closer trading partners in the EU is recommending that.

Its our only trump card really (Londons financial sector), and if the EU is going to play hardball over that, then potentially we have a problem.

We have a massive, world class service industry, and we need that market, or we really could take a huge hit.

Goldman Sachs have already started to move staff out of London and, from people I've talked to, it won't be long until others follow (although some are planning to do it through natural wastage, when people leave in the UK recruit replacements in the EU so it won't be as obvious).

A lot of the problem is the total lack of clarity. Companies can't wait for a deal to be done and discover at the end of it that passporting or whatever won't be a part of it. There was a good article in the FT (I've put it in the next post) about how the suggested deal has been constantly downgraded and that is concerning a lot of businesses.

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 11:03 am

From the FT
Over-optimistic ministers manipulate the Brexit debate
At each stage they spin the new bottom-line as something they half-expected all along
Janan Ganesh

There are medical students who glide through every stage of their training bar the bedside manner. They know the human body and its processes but cannot manage patient expectations or break bad news.

The three men in charge of Brexit, that elective operation on Britain’s body politic, evoke the opposite — and the worst — type of doctor. What they lack in core competence they redress with tongues of purest silver.

Pressed for detail on his work by MPs last week, David Davis, the minister for exit, left them vaguer. It hurts to inform you that diplomats find him well-briefed next to Liam Fox, whose trade portfolio is a phantom thing until Britain leaves the EU, and Boris Johnson, who has not let his rise to foreign secretary disrupt his work as a jester for the kind of Tories who laugh when a bird lands on centre court at Wimbledon.

But then look at what these ministers have achieved as manipulators of public debate. Over the past year, the terms on which Britain will leave have been talked down on such a fine gradient that even vigilant observers of politics are only semi-conscious of how far the country has been led.

As an opening pitch, voters were told that Britain could retain single-market membership without its corollary burdens. Norway and Switzerland have tried for the same Utopia but our superior size would clinch it. When Leavers were disabused of this dream, they spoke of “access” to the market and zero barriers for traded goods. German exporters, blessed with supernatural lobbying powers that somehow failed to soften European sanctions on Russia, would persuade the EU of the mutual interest in such an arrangement.

When even this diminished plan ran into trouble, when it became clear that Britain’s desire for bilateral dealmaking power could not be accommodated inside the customs union, Leavers fell back on a formal trade relationship with the EU instead. Britain would do business with Europe as Canada does, as if geography had been abolished and the access terms enjoyed by a nation 4,000km away would serve for a nation whose physical and economic orientation is to the continent.

That seemed to be the last recourse. But now ministers are trying to normalise the idea of total exit without a trade pact. Mr Johnson says this would not be “by any means as apocalyptic as some people like to pretend” (roll up, roll up for a future that stops short of apocalypse) and Mr Davis describes it as “not harmful”. Economists disagree with him but politicians are allowed to question their record of clairvoyance.

What they are not allowed is a pardon for a solid year’s worth of promissory slippage: from single market membership to a commodious niche in the customs union to a trade deal to absolute severance. Even if they are right that Britain can prosper in its principal market as a World Trade Organization member, this was never their vision.

At every stage, they overpromise. At every stage, reality finds them out. At every stage, they spin the new bottom-line as something they half-expected all along and as nothing to fear. If the sun melted the northern hemisphere, they would hope to finesse these isles out of the generalised inferno with a bespoke deal. This is the kind of confidence that arouses the opposite of confidence in others. It is the confidence of a lost tour guide who cannot be seen to scrutinise a map in front of paying holidaymakers.

If these ministers erred in different ways at different times, they could hope to improve through practice. But they consistently err on the side of optimism. The problem is not technical incompetence so much as a mystical belief that the EU will unpick its fundamental principles to accommodate Britain, that the whole world will make exceptions for the nation of Shakespeare and the spinning jenny. If these men were shocked that the EU turned out to be a tough interlocutor with interests of its own, imagine their first contact with the American industrial lobby or the Indian state.

On March 29, the government will file Article 50 and begin talks that have no precedent in sweep or complexity. If we are now inured to the prospect of the very hardest of exits, that is some feat by Leavers. There is an art to the gradual normalisation of previously extreme ideas. In the hands of a good politician, you cannot tell you are being let down.

It is just that you would rather be in the hands of statesmen. Seeing these ministers talk their way out of old promises leaves you with a sense of sinuous political skill but also smallness — of a trio pulling themselves up to their full height to look at the monumental work of exit straight in the ankles.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 11:13 am

I've just checked, and I can't get the font of that small enough to fit on the side of a bus.

This fits though

STOP TALKING BRITAIN DOWN

and

REMOANERS

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 11:13 am

aggi wrote:Goldman Sachs have already started to move staff out of London and, from people I've talked to, it won't be long until others follow (although some are planning to do it through natural wastage, when people leave in the UK recruit replacements in the EU so it won't be as obvious).

A lot of the problem is the total lack of clarity. Companies can't wait for a deal to be done and discover at the end of it that passporting or whatever won't be a part of it. There was a good article in the FT (I've put it in the next post) about how the suggested deal has been constantly downgraded and that is concerning a lot of businesses.

The government can't make a promise on anything before negotiations have started or been completed, so it's abit unfair that companies aren't willing to wait.

nil_desperandum · Post by **nil_desperandum** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 11:23 am

Sidney1st wrote:The government can't make a promise on anything before negotiations have started or been completed, so it's abit unfair that companies aren't willing to wait.

Companies /businesses - by their nature, generally can't wait. It's all about keeping one step ahead of competitors. In some cases they will currently be planning 5 years and more ahead.

kentonclaret · Post by **kentonclaret** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 11:33 am

Leave campaigners told us repeatedly throughout the referendum debate "They need us as much as we need them."

I guess over the next 2 years we are about to find out whether that statement is true or not.

Quickenthetempo · Post by **Quickenthetempo** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 12:00 pm

Lets just abandon the Island, we are doomed. Doomed I tell thee.

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 12:07 pm

Sidney1st wrote:The government can't make a promise on anything before negotiations have started or been completed, so it's a bit unfair that companies aren't willing to wait.

Agreed, it is difficult, but the noises coming out of the government (the no deal is better than a bad deal rhetoric, etc) is giving no confidence that a deal for their priorities will be agreed quickly, if at all. The hope was that at the start of the negotiating period some of the areas could be agreed very quickly (EU workers currently in the UK and vice versa, passporting, security co-operation) but that is looking less and less likely.

There was an expectation that there would be a transition period post-negotiation which the talk of defaulting to WTO if we don't get our way seems to have scuppered.

The immaturity (from both sides) so far isn't giving the impression that things will be dealt with sensibly.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 12:12 pm

Lets just abandon the Island, we are doomed. Doomed I tell thee.

Yeah, that fits on the side of a bus as well

Bit short on any real facts or figures though!

KateR · Post by **KateR** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 12:13 pm

Some will go others will come, it is what it is and that is a "trade off" Neither side in this can get everything they want and everyone will want to keep trade moving, both sides can add tax to goods but what it should definitely do is push up how much manufacturing is done in the UK. I also see corporate tax dropping for new entries for a number of years to encourage companies to establish themselves in the UK Not Scotland of course because they are going to leave the UK and have no idea what currency they will be playing with since they will be outside EU also, isolationists of the pure kind. T May is going to build a wall and the Scottish people will pay for it but the UK people will build it providing thousands of jobs in the infrastructure field plus more custom time people as well as a maintenance crew like the Forth Road Bridge creating jobs for life!!

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 12:14 pm

What is really worrying is the amount of Tory MPs who think WTO tariffs are going to be ok.

Fine for certain parts I'm sure, but for our biggest trading partner? Not a chance

JohnMcGreal · Post by **JohnMcGreal** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 12:27 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:What is really worrying is the amount of Tory MPs who think WTO tariffs are going to be ok.

Fine for certain parts I'm sure, but for our biggest trading partner? Not a chance

WTO tariffs will be ok. For them. I can't see the likes of Boris, Gove, Fox etc struggling financially whatever happens.

But for a lot of regular, working people, it will be a disaster.

Hipper · Post by **Hipper** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 1:28 pm

I didn't find that Financial Times article at all enlightening.

It seems obvious to me that no-one at this stage can possibly know what the outcome of negotiations will be as this whole business has never been done before, and anyone that says they do know cannot be believed (which is all the article says).

I agree it is troubling for business that they can't predict what the future holds, but it is troubling for everyone else too. This instability for at least the next two years has been brought on by the decision to leave. I just hope the benefits of all this (potential) upheaval will be enough to offset the negatives. I would think the very process, let alone the outcome, will do considerable damage (in relationships, unnecessary admin costs, and not devoting our attention to vital 'running of the country' issues).

Hipper · Post by **Hipper** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 1:34 pm

KateR wrote:T May is going to build a wall and the Scottish people will pay for it but the UK people will build it providing thousands of jobs in the infrastructure field plus more custom time people as well as a maintenance crew like the Forth Road Bridge creating jobs for life!!

I think you'll find the Italians already built it although it may need some attention.

http://www.english-heritage.org.uk/visi ... l/history/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Quickenthetempo · Post by **Quickenthetempo** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 2:08 pm

Lancasterclaret wrote:Yeah, that fits on the side of a bus as well

Bit short on any real facts or figures though!

But there are no facts and figures available yet.

Is anyone on this forum suffering as a consequence of Brexit?

claretdom · Post by **claretdom** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 2:15 pm

Some will claim to have been struggling within minutes of the result.

Yet when you challenge the same people with a question regarding the immediate doom that was about to begin the day after the result you are told "aye but we haven't left yet" eventually when it is all done and above 95% of the population notice no real change to their life it will quickly turn to "might as well just have stayed as we were" unless you take into account the a bottle of san miguel might cost them 1.40euros instead of 1.30 as a hardship.

Bertiebeehead · Post by **Bertiebeehead** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 2:21 pm

Quickenthetempo wrote:But there are no facts and figures available yet.

Is anyone on this forum suffering as a consequence of Brexit?

I'm bored of hearing about it, does that count?

JohnMcGreal · Post by **JohnMcGreal** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 2:25 pm

Quickenthetempo wrote:But there are no facts and figures available yet.

Is anyone on this forum suffering as a consequence of Brexit?

Well, we haven't left the EU yet. We haven't even started the process to leave the EU.

Despite that, our currency has lost about 15% of it's value, which has led to higher food and fuel costs, which has pushed inflation past the BoE target.

So yes, we've all felt some consequences (you included) and we haven't even begun the process to leave.

KateR · Post by **KateR** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 2:38 pm

JohnMcGreal wrote:Well, we haven't left the EU yet. We haven't even started the process to leave the EU.

Despite that, our currency has lost about 15% of it's value, which has led to higher food and fuel costs, which has pushed inflation past the BoE target.

So yes, we've all felt some consequences (you included) and we haven't even begun the process to leave.

Not ALL, for example hubby gets paid in $US so no affect and anyone with shares should have seen an increase that will offset the reduced GBP to Euro/$US

But I do understand what you mean in this short term fluctuation

Quickenthetempo · Post by **Quickenthetempo** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 2:40 pm

JohnMcGreal wrote:Well, we haven't left the EU yet. We haven't even started the process to leave the EU.

Despite that, our currency has lost about 15% of it's value, which has led to higher food and fuel costs, which has pushed inflation past the BoE target.

So yes, we've all felt some consequences (you included) and we haven't even begun the process to leave.

One year ago the pound to euro was around the 115 mark like today. So how can we blame that?

JohnMcGreal · Post by **JohnMcGreal** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 2:42 pm

Quickenthetempo wrote:One year ago the pound to euro was around the 115 mark like today. So how can we blame that?

Are you saying that our weakened currency and higher inflation rate is nothing to do with the vote on June 23rd last year?

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 2:43 pm

Food and fuel costs go up every year pretty much.

I remember fuel being 60p a litre when I was a kid in the 90's.
I also remember Freddo's being 5-10p and now it's 25-30p.

JohnMcGreal · Post by **JohnMcGreal** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 2:44 pm

Sidney1st wrote:Food and fuel costs go up every year pretty much.

I remember fuel being 60p a litre when I was a kid in the 90's.
I also remember Freddo's being 5-10p and now it's 25-30p.

Are you saying that our weakened currency and higher inflation rate is nothing to do with the vote on June 23rd last year?

edit - 23rd, sorry.

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 2:46 pm

JohnMcGreal wrote:Are you saying that our weakened currency and higher inflation rate is nothing to do with the vote on June 25th last year?

I just pointed out stuff goes up in cost every single year pretty much.

That was before the Brexit vote.

As for weakened currency and higher inflation, that's above my knowledge level, I just look at it from the bottom of the ladder.
Has our currency been weak in the past, it must've been?

Quickenthetempo · Post by **Quickenthetempo** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 2:50 pm

JohnMcGreal wrote:Are you saying that our weakened currency and higher inflation rate is nothing to do with the vote on June 23rd last year?

I'm asking you. It just looks like it evens itself out to me. Fuel had been coming down for two years and the supermarkets were having a price war with each other. Stands to reason they start to go back up.

JohnMcGreal · Post by **JohnMcGreal** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 2:50 pm

Of course things go up and down. I'm not disputing that.

What I'm saying is the value of our currency reduced dramatically immediately after the vote last year, and it still hasn't recovered from it. That is a fact.

So unless you think the timing of that devaluation was just coincidental, the cause can certainly be attributed to the Leave vote.

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 2:51 pm

Has it devalued before?

JohnMcGreal · Post by **JohnMcGreal** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 2:52 pm

Quickenthetempo wrote:I'm asking you. It just looks like it evens itself out to me. Fuel had been coming down for two years and the supermarkets were having a price war with each other. Stands to reason they start to go back up.

So you think the timing of all of this was just a coincidence? You don't think it had anything to do with the Leave vote?

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 2:53 pm

Of course the leave vote has caused things to change, it's a period of uncertainty...

Markets change when someone important dies, so Britain leaving the EU was bound to cause something to happen financially.

The way you're banging the drum though you'd think price changes and currency devaluation had never happened before.

JohnMcGreal · Post by **JohnMcGreal** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 2:54 pm

Sidney1st wrote:Has it devalued before?

Yes. The last major fall of the Pound was during the financial crisis in 2008.

But I didn't say that it hadn't devalued before. I'm saying that the current weakness of the pound is a direct result of the country voting to leave the EU last year. Is that even up for debate? I thought it was obvious.

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 2:55 pm

It is obvious, we all know it is, but you're clinging onto it like a dog does to a bone.

It's happened and things take a while to settle, but the imminent financial crash the experts said would happen still hasn't happened.....

Quickenthetempo · Post by **Quickenthetempo** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 2:56 pm

JohnMcGreal wrote:So you think the timing of all of this was just a coincidence? You don't think it had anything to do with the Leave vote?

Obviously the pound dropped after the brexit vote but if you look back it's at the same level it was a year ago against the Euro, so not as dramatic as you think.

Sidney1st · Post by **Sidney1st** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 2:57 pm

Quickenthetempo wrote:Obviously the pound dropped after the brexit vote but if you look back it's at the same level it was a year ago against the Euro, so not as dramatic as you think.

Or wants

claretdom · Post by **claretdom** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 2:57 pm

How did prices go up before the vote

How did we ever have a recession before the vote

I have just paid £71 return for flights to Malaga would I have paid a lot less prior to vote (heres a tip I paid £84 before the vote for the same flight same time of year)

Are the rise of house prices to a rate that young people can no longer buy a result of the vote ?

JohnMcGreal · Post by **JohnMcGreal** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 2:59 pm

If it's obvious, Sid, why did it take you 4 posts before you could agree with the point that I made in post #26?

Why write 3 posts of whataboutery before eventually agreeing with my original point?

Rowls · Post by **Rowls** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 3:02 pm

kentonclaret wrote:Leave campaigners told us repeatedly throughout the referendum debate "They need us as much as we need them."
I guess over the next 2 years we are about to find out whether that statement is true or not.

Not true. We have a trade deficit with Europe. We don't need them as much as they need us; they need us more than we need them.

Lancasterclaret wrote:What is really worrying is the amount of Tory MPs who think WTO tariffs are going to be ok.
Fine for certain parts I'm sure, but for our biggest trading partner? Not a chance

I'm not sure if you can back this up with quotes but I haven't heard any amount (less so a "worrying amount") calling for WTO tariffs.
WTO tariffs are not OK but they are not the end of the world. They also make a great minimum starting point for negotiations. However, I don't imagine French wine makers, German car manufacturers etc will be calling for large tariffs on their goods...

JohnMcGreal wrote:Are you saying that our weakened currency and higher inflation rate is nothing to do with the vote on June 23rd last year?

The "weakened" currency you talk about is actually very, very strongly helping our exports market. That's the beauty of being in control of your own currency. A variable price currency, unlike the Euro, helps the economy and works for our economy. Thank goodness we have the pound.

As for inflation, 2.3% is not anything to wet pants about. It is 0.3% above target.

JohnMcGreal · Post by **JohnMcGreal** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 3:05 pm

Rowls wrote:Thank goodness we have the pound.

I think that's something we can all agree on.

Hipper · Post by **Hipper** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 3:11 pm

Quickenthetempo wrote:Is anyone on this forum suffering as a consequence of Brexit?

It's difficult to say if some things are the result of the Leave decision or something else but properties where I live were selling or being rented easily and now they are not. Some Hungarians, Spanish and Rumanians I know are going home, at least temporarily, and they site Brexit as the reason, even though they have had no problems from anyone since the decision.

LeadBelly · Post by **LeadBelly** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 3:15 pm

If currencies going up or down determines whether an event is good or bad for a country then Trump's election must've been good for the USA. The dollar has increased noticeably (c 5% on average) against the mighty Euro since the election. On 19th December, it hit a high of .9623 having been c 0.9 just before the election (and below 0.9 on average in the 3-4 months prior).

timshorts · Post by **timshorts** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 6:06 pm

Quickenthetempo wrote:Obviously the pound dropped after the brexit vote but if you look back it's at the same level it was a year ago against the Euro, so not as dramatic as you think.

Are you Boris in disguise?

A year ago £1 was worth €1.27. Today it's worth €1.15. It doesn't matter how often you say that those figures are the same, they just aren't.

And, of course, a year ago it was already suffering from Brexit jitters. I seem to remember getting €1.40 in May 2015 before there was a prospect of leaving the EU.

Lancasterclaret · Post by **Lancasterclaret** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 6:14 pm

Rowls

https://www.pressreader.com/uk/the-guar ... 6974274801" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Its Boris Johnson, who doesn't have a scooby, but its still there.

timshorts · Post by **timshorts** » Wed Mar 22, 2017 6:21 pm

[quote="Rowls"] We have a trade deficit with Europe.
+
The "weakened" currency you talk about is actually very, very strongly helping our exports market".

= WTF

If we have a trade deficit, and the pound drops against the Euro, the deficit just gets bigger. That's really great for the economy isn't it. Let's just increase the National Debt so that we can keep those horrible Polish people and half our hospital staff out of the country.

And no, the EU don't need us more than we need them. How the F is that even remotely true. What do we have that they can't get elsewhere? Nothing. Even our footballers are generally pretty sh1te.

But, there's plenty that we don't produce ourselves and still need to import from somewhere (and clearly while BMW's don't fit into this category, a whole stack of very basic foodstuffs do).

I can't believe people actually believe some of this Daily Mail tripe without first turning their brains on.............................