O/T - Dutch report into Brexit and recommendations

[Rowls]

We have a trade deficit with Europe.
+
The "weakened" currency you talk about is actually very, very strongly helping our exports market".

= WTF

If we have a trade deficit, and the pound drops against the Euro, the deficit just gets bigger. That's really great for the economy isn't it. Let's just increase the National Debt so that we can keep those horrible Polish people and half our hospital staff out of the country.

And no, the EU don't need us more than we need them. How the F is that even remotely true. What do we have that they can't get elsewhere? Nothing. Even our footballers are generally pretty sh1te.

But, there's plenty that we don't produce ourselves and still need to import from somewhere (and clearly while BMW's don't fit into this category, a whole stack of very basic foodstuffs do).

I can't believe people actually believe some of this Daily Mail tripe without first turning their brains on.............................

Well done timshorts for possibly the dumbest post ever on UTC.

Nothing you've written even warrants a response.

[diamondpocket]

Living in Europe my Dad decided to give me a bit of cash about a year ago so he changed Pounds to Euros (did it about a year and a half ago); he decided it was the best time as the exchange rate was about 1 pound to 1.10 euro.

[JohnMcGreal]

The exchange rate 18 months ago was around £1 - €1.40.

So if your Dad only got €1.10 a year and a half ago, he got ripped off.

[Darthlaw]

Let's just increase the National Debt so that we can keep those horrible Polish people and half our hospital staff out of the country.

I can't believe people actually believe some of this Daily Mail tripe without first turning their brains on.............................

Just to quickly point out that around 5% of EU migrants make up the NHS. maybe the decimal slipped when you mentioned half?

Either that or brain not turned on and all that..?

[Darthlaw]

The exchange rate 18 months ago was around £1 - €1.40.

So if your Dad only got €1.10 a year and a half ago, he got ripped off.

June 2015 the rate was £1 to €1.48

This time last year it was £1 to €1.26

So effectively the Euro/GBP exchange rate has been on the slide since prior to the referendum. It's all brexits fault though.

[claretdom]

You used to get more than 2 pesetas to the £

See the euro is crap

[Lancasterclaret]

Course, this is kinda moving away from the original post, which was how one of closest European partners was going to deal with Brexit.

But I guess I should be lucky no one has called me a remoaner yet or told me to stop "talking Britain down"

[JohnMcGreal]

Give it time, Lancaster

[Right_winger]

The EU sell more to us than we sell to them.
We pay in more to the club than we receive back.

These 2 points are massively in our favour.
Personally I hope we tell the EU to do one and drop taxes to outmanoeuvre the EU.

If there's no deal then there's a lot of jobs going in Europe.

[Imploding Turtle]

The EU sell more to us than we sell to them.

You're dreaming. 44% of our exports go to other EU countries. 8% of the exports from EU countries come to the UK.
https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Quit your bullshit.

[Caballo]

Are you Boris in disguise?

A year ago £1 was worth €1.27. Today it's worth €1.15. It doesn't matter how often you say that those figures are the same, they just aren't.

And, of course, a year ago it was already suffering from Brexit jitters. I seem to remember getting €1.40 in May 2015 before there was a prospect of leaving the EU.

On 31/12/2008 it was €1.02 so you're point is?

[Right_winger]

You're dreaming. 44% of our exports go to other EU countries. 8% of the exports from EU countries come to the UK.
https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Quit your bullshit.

How numb are you.

Clearly what I said was we import more than we export to the EU.

Check the link.

You are wrong yet again.

Trying to baffle people with your bullshit. Doesn't wash im afraid.

https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/ ... _Data.aspx" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Tall Paul]

You're dreaming. 44% of our exports go to other EU countries. 8% of the exports from EU countries come to the UK.
https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Quit your bullshit.

From your link:

The value of trade to the UK and the rest of the EU—we exported about £220 billion worth of goods and services to the rest of the EU in 2015, according to UK data, while the rest of the EU exported somewhere around £290 billion to us. These figures differ if you use EU data. What this means is that the rest of the EU sells more to us than we sell to it.

Pretty sure 290 is a bigger number than 220.

Although I agree that it's disingenuous to use those figures to suggest that the EU relies on us for trade more than we rely on them.

[Imploding Turtle]

How numb are you.

Clearly what I said was we import more than we export to the EU.

Check the link.

You are wrong yet again.

Trying to baffle people with your bullshit. Doesn't wash im afraid.

https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/ ... _Data.aspx" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I don't think you have an adequate understanding of how statistics work.

Yes, we import more from the EU than we export to the EU but so what? We are far more dependent on the EU for trade then the EU are dependent on us and this is borne out when you compare the proportion of each's exports. 44% of what we export goes to EU countries, 8% of what they export goes to us. That's what's important.

The fact that we import more than we export is neither here nor there. The Daily Mail likes to make people like you think it's important, simply to make you feel ebtter about your boneheadedly stupid decision to vote Leave, but it's not.

Edit: And by the way, the fact that we import more from the EU than we export to it hurts your argument that leaving the EU is good for us. What we have to import won't change, it'll just cost more, and it'll be harder and less profitable to export what we export to them.

[Imploding Turtle]

From your link:



Pretty sure 290 is a bigger number than 220.

Although I agree that it's disingenuous to use those figures to suggest that the EU relies on us for trade more than we rely on them.

That's why we should be working with percentages. I was assuming that right-winger wasn't deliberately trying to mislead others by using only the raw £ value. Oh who am I kidding? of course right-winger was deliberately trying to mislead people.

[CrosspoolClarets]

Three things are very clear to me:

1. Our economy relies more on the EU as a whole than any individual EU state economy does on us (Ireland may come close).
2. There will be individual EU states whose desire to give us a free trade deal to protect their economy outstrips their desire to preserve the "four freedoms".
3. The EU 27 all have to agree on any deal so there will be huge arguments between them.

So, based on that, we have two options.

One, roll over and take a free trade deal for 10 years or so whilst preserving the four freedoms in large part and paying the EU a huge wedge (in essence, a partial "toe out of the door" Brexit). I can see why most remainers would go for that one.

Two, brinkmanship in the hope that the internal EU infighting results in us getting a better deal than the above option. That seems to be the way the UK is going. I actually don't think it will be a hard Brexit, I think it is brinkmanship with some form of a free trade deal at the end of it. I think we'll end up paying a dollop to the EU for up to 10 years, and I think we will allow some freedom of movement of capital, but the people argument will be the sticking point that make the end result hard to predict.

[Right_winger]

I don't think you have an adequate understanding of how statistics work.

Yes, we import more from the EU than we export to the EU but so what? We are far more dependent on the EU for trade then the EU are dependent on us and this is borne out when you compare the proportion of each's exports. 44% of what we export goes to EU countries, 8% of what they export goes to us. That's what's important.

The fact that we import more than we export is neither here nor there. The Daily Mail likes to make people like you think it's important, simply to make you feel ebtter about your boneheadedly stupid decision to vote Leave, but it's not.

Edit: And by the way, the fact that we import more from the EU than we export to it hurts your argument that leaving the EU is good for us. What we have to import won't change, it'll just cost more, and it'll be harder and less profitable to export what we export to them.

So you admit that we are a net importer then? So what happens when trade tariffs go on? we WILL receive extra money for importing goods OR we could do 2 things, source the foods from elsewhere OR manufacture them ourselves.

As for exports, there are a whole new world of opportunities.

As you are a leftist liberal it's obvious you don't want to leave he EU as you are in fear that the nonsensical ECHR laws will be trashed. Trying to hoodwink people about economic Doom is clearly the attack on those "thick brexiteers"

[nil_desperandum]

You're dreaming. 44% of our exports go to other EU countries. 8% of the exports from EU countries come to the UK.
https://fullfact.org/europe/uk-eu-trade/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
.

You must also factor in that this 8% is divided by 27 countries, so it affects some countries hardly at all, whereas we cop for the full 44%
Looked at the other way the 290 is divided between 27 countries - if you don't like it expressed in percentage terms

[Paul Waine]

I don't think you have an adequate understanding of how statistics work. .

Hi IT, I love this. I guess we all know about "lies, damn lies and statistics."

Statistics can enable us to make comparisons. Sometimes these comparisons are helpful - sometimes the comparisons are less helpful.

Let's take some football examples:

What percentage of Burnley's points have come from home games and away games this season - and what percentage has come from games in previous seasons. Particularly interesting to compare our 3 Premier League seasons. Less interesting to compare Championship seasons with Premier League seasons - and so on.
What percentage of Burnley's points have come from home games compared with percentage that Chelsea have from home games (or ManU or any other Premier league team). Interesting for this season - but not as interesting as the total points won this season and position in the league.
What percentage of Burnley's points come from home games compared with Celtic's points from home games. We aren't playing in the same competition, so why make this comparison.

Similarly, UK trade with EU - and total EU27 trade with UK: not as interesting as UK with EU and other external countries with EU (after Brexit), also UK with individual EU member states, Germany for example, or Netherlands (as this thread starts with NL) and Germany's trade with UK. But, I'm starting to think that total value can be more useful measures than percentages - and total values are also statistics.

Don't forget, UK used to import a lot of food from Commonwealth countries - this was heavily reduced when we joined EEC to comply with CAP and EEC tariffs.

[Quickenthetempo]

Is it not good news that it could be too expensive to import things the UK could manufacture ourselves? The lefties on the thread must be happy if it produces more jobs for the UK?

One thing for sure is we will get a better deal than some of the doom mongers on here predict/expect so you should be the happier out of all of us.

[Imploding Turtle]

Is it not good news that it could be too expensive to import things the UK could manufacture ourselves? The lefties on the thread must be happy if it produces more jobs for the UK?

One thing for sure is we will get a better deal than some of the doom mongers on here predict/expect so you should be the happier out of all of us.

Have you any links to studies that show the UK can expect a significant increase in manufacturing jobs?

I can understand the logic that says if we're importing less because it's more expensive then we'll make more here to save money but that's dependent on companies seeing it as worthwhile moving here but i've only read in the news that we can't expect a major influx of manufacturing jobs post-Brexit.

[Tall Paul]

Is it not good news that it could be too expensive to import things the UK could manufacture ourselves? The lefties on the thread must be happy if it produces more jobs for the UK?

One thing for sure is we will get a better deal than some of the doom mongers on here predict/expect so you should be the happier out of all of us.

What if the things we import can't be manufactured here?

[Lancasterclaret]

"As you are a leftist liberal it's obvious you don't want to leave he EU as you are in fear that the nonsensical ECHR laws will be trashed. Trying to hoodwink people about economic Doom is clearly the attack on those "thick brexiteers""

Its an economic argument Right winger on here. Nothing to do with the ECHR.

[Colburn_Claret]

The question of EU migrants is raising it's head again.
As a confirmed Brexiteer, can I just reiterate again. I don't have a problem with Europeans working here, the problem is with Europeans living on the social and stretching an already over burdened benefits system.
This idea that post Brexit, all EU nationals will have to vacate Britain, and vice versa, is only propaganda by remoaners. It's a load of ********.

[Quickenthetempo]

Have you any links to studies that show the UK can expect a significant increase in manufacturing jobs?

I can understand the logic that says if we're importing less because it's more expensive then we'll make more here to save money but that's dependent on companies seeing it as worthwhile moving here but i've only read in the news that we can't expect a major influx of manufacturing jobs post-Brexit.

If their is demand for anything in this country firms will sprout up from everywhere to take advantage.

I don't think we need studies to know what happens in real life, our judgements have as much chance of being right as any prediction. I'm sure you will agree that since the brexit vote most predictions proved codswallop.

[Paul Waine]

Have you any links to studies that show the UK can expect a significant increase in manufacturing jobs?

I can understand the logic that says if we're importing less because it's more expensive then we'll make more here to save money but that's dependent on companies seeing it as worthwhile moving here but i've only read in the news that we can't expect a major influx of manufacturing jobs post-Brexit.

Hi IT, no need in many cases for new companies to "move here." It can be as simple as UK consumers buying more UK manufactured products made by existing firms and buying less of the competing products manufactured by EU27 firms. It will enable the UK firms to expand, manufacture more and employ more people. Of course, it can also encourage new firms to be created to meet the opportunities.

[Imploding Turtle]

If their is demand for anything in this country firms will sprout up from everywhere to take advantage.

I don't think we need studies to know what happens in real life, our judgements have as much chance of being right as any prediction. I'm sure you will agree that since the brexit vote most predictions proved codswallop.

No, i won't agree because Brexit hasn't even started yet, let alone happened.

[Quickenthetempo]

No, i won't agree because Brexit hasn't even started yet, let alone happened.

Correct.

So you think all of the predicted stuff will happen still?

I have set a reminder on my phone for 3 years time to bump this thread.

[Lancasterclaret]

I wish your confidence was shared by the people who actually make the decisions Quick.

In six months we've gone from still being a member of the common market, to still being a member of EFTA, to still having access, to going "well, WTO tariffs are actually really, really good" (even though they clearly are not, as that is why countries have free trade deals)

[Imploding Turtle]

Correct.

So you think all of the predicted stuff will happen still?

I have set a reminder on my phone for 3 years time to bump this thread.

All of it? Of course not. I have a fairly good understanding of probability theory. But i'm sure some of it will. Some of the effect won't be as bad as expected and some of the effects wille be worse than expected.

[Longsiders1882]

Back in the day they used to have barrack room lawyers - these days everyone is a barrack room economist, or so it seems.

What I do know is the cost of my shopping each week is going up a lot at the moment

[Right_winger]

Not only do we buy more from he EU than they buy from us, we also pay in for the privaledge being a net contributor.

[claretdom]

I should really ask turtle this (as he knows more than everyyone about everything) but I won't for obvious reasons to anyone who has read his blinkered nonsense, Lancaster & Quoon are about the only ones on here who seem to offer a comment without trying to tell everyone they are thick so perhaps it may be better directed that way.

When we joined this glorious organisation did everything suddenly drop in price the way we are told everything is going to rise now we are leaving. Its a genuine question as I have never seen any comment regards this.

[Lancasterclaret]

I've no idea, I don't honestly think you can judge either way until we are a lot further down the process. I guess you'd have to be a proper economist to link all the potential activities together that might or might not be related to Brexit. Follow Robert Peston or Nick Robinson on twitter is a good start, or Andrew Neil cos they get the info from people who really do know what they are talking about and try to present it with no bias.

One thing I am sure about, and that it will cause economic disruption in the short to medium term. Like everybody else, I'm hoping that its not as bad or lasts as long as it could do.

[Right_winger]

I've no idea, I don't honestly think you can judge either way until we are a lot further down the process. I guess you'd have to be a proper economist to link all the potential activities together that might or might not be related to Brexit. Follow Robert Peston or Nick Robinson on twitter is a good start, or Andrew Neil cos they get the info from people who really do know what they are talking about and try to present it with no bias.

One thing I am sure about, and that it will cause economic disruption in the short to medium term. Like everybody else, I'm hoping that its not as bad or lasts as long as it could do.

Those 3 men you have named are excellent political commentators. Particularly Andrew Neil.

There's not many people arguing the fact that there won't be short term upheaval, as there inevitably will be. However like anything, people adapt to their surroundings. Our economy will adapt, there are a lot of opportunities ahead of us.

[Hipper]

When we joined this glorious organisation did everything suddenly drop in price the way we are told everything is going to rise now we are leaving. Its a genuine question as I have never seen any comment regards this.

The EU (or EEC as it was then - European Economic Union) was a very different organisation when we joined forty years ago. The UK was very different too - the sick man of Europe as we were known and continued to be for a few more years. Mind you there were external factors, notably the OPEC oil price increases, that didn't help matters.

https://www.ft.com/content/202a60c0-cfd ... f7778e7377" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -last-time" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Paul Waine]

The EU (or EEC as it was then - European Economic Union) was a very different organisation when we joined forty years ago. The UK was very different too - the sick man of Europe as we were known and continued to be for a few more years. Mind you there were external factors, notably the OPEC oil price increases, that didn't help matters.

https://www.ft.com/content/202a60c0-cfd ... f7778e7377" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... -last-time" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Hi Hipper, good to be reminded of UK in 1970s.

Yes, UK suffered a lot from "poor industrial relations." My opinion, some of this related to the decline of "old fashioned" industries, several being stated owned nationalised (ship building, coal, British Leyland to name a few "off the top of my head") and some from the "political struggle" that (some of) the trade unions wanted to fight. The 1970s was also a period of high inflation - and a lot of the inflation was fed by OPEC and 1973 oil price increase (which nearly led to petrol rationing in UK).

I think I'm correct in recalling that joining the EEC was seen as one way to help the "sick man of Europe" to recover. One of the costs of joining EEC was signing up for CAP - which also required placing tariffs on food imports from other countries, including the Commonwealth. So both CAP and tariffs on non-EEC food imports further fed food price inflation.... leading to more requests for pay-rises to compensate and more inflation.

In 1980s economic policy switched to control of the money supply - and inflation was, eventually, brought under control.

Hard to claim that the government gained a better understanding of how to manage the economy. In late 1980s the pound was linked to European currencies in the Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM) - before crashing out in September 1992 (black Wednesday - with mortgage rates at 15% for a time - yes, fifteen percent, the decimal point isn't missing).

PS (edit): interesting to read the two articles, FT and Guardian from pre-Brexit vote days. I wonder what they would both write today, or in two years time?

[Hipper]

Yes, I seem to recall, the biggest immediate impact of joining the EEC was in agriculture and maybe fisheries.

The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) was a food security measure, trying to make sure that Europe could feed itself. Cynics said it was merely a way of propping up the inefficient French agricultural system and part time German farmers. It did result in increased food prices and also butter mountains, wine lakes etc.: over production caused by misjudged subsidies. I think our farmers did well out of it although they won't admit it!

For fisheries, we had just lost another 'cod war' with Iceland which had a big impact on the industry and it seems a common assumption that the EEC's Common Fisheries Policy made it worse still. It's not clear to me if this is really true. Was it simply diminishing fish stocks and moves to bigger trawlers?