Darthlaw wrote:Sturgeon needs the Indy ref date to be set before he terms of Brexit are finalised because its the best chance the SNP have for winning.
Once the terms are agreed, the Unionists will have a definite 'This is what Scotland will look like if they choose to stay in the Union'. The SNP can only argue about what they hope to happen if they leave the Union i.e. Oil recovers, they will be allowed to use the pound, The EU will fast track them, etc.
What is easier for Nicola Sturgeon to argue? Uncertainty of Independence vs Uncertainty of The Union or Uncertainty of Independence vs Clear matter of fact remaining in the Union.
By setting a date prior to the terms of Brexit being agreed, it will also allow the SNP to begin rhetoric around 'hard brexit' and what poor position Scotland could be in. Once the terms are agreed the SNP are knacked as they will only have their own ideals vs fact.
Scotland should absolutely be allowed a referendum on independence, however for the SNP to deny their people the right of an informed decision of what is on the table for staying in the Union just shows how badly their motives are idealistic and not in the interests of the people of Scotland.
SNP - Independence at all costs.
I don't think "independence at all costs" is at all fair, at least not yet.
The UK and EU have 2 years to negotiate Brexit since there's no guarentee that the EU will give consent for the UK to remain a member for an extra two years to continue negotiations, so i think we'll be able to tell a lot by how close to the end of this 2-year period the SNP seek to hold the referendum.
For example, if they want it in March 2019 then that's a pretty good indication that the Sturgeon is maximising the leverage the referendum gives them in the Brexit negotiations to force May to negotiate a much softer Brexit than she otherwise would. This is because if May still goes for the hard Brexit we're expecting then that will make it much easier for the pro-indy campaign to win by saying "have you seen this deal these Westminster ***** have negotiated for us?", and the Conservatives, at least officially, still oppose Scottish independence.
If she seeks the referendum much earlier, like March 2018, then that would suggest Sturgeon is not really interested in the outcome of the Brexit negotiations and is going full throated for independence, or bust. It think this because the earlier they have the referendum the more time
after it that Brexit negotiations go on for without the SNP having significant leverage against a harder Brexit.