Magic Numbers - 2016/17

[evensteadiereddie]

You're right, sorry about that. Trying to work out too many things at once.

[Clarets4me]

Updated....

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110

[Goddy]

Currently now;

West Ham 23
Palace 24
Swansea 18
Hull 17
Boro 16
Sunderland 10

One, or both, Hull and Boro will drop tomorrow night too.

Realistically, still on for us to be technically safe around game 35/36 but could done and dusted as early as game 34.

[Vince Fontaine]

Ooo look they've tumbled a little more

West Ham..........20
Palace...............21
Hull..................17
Swansea.............15
boro .................13
Sunderland ..........10

Not long now until we get our first 0
UTC

[evensteadiereddie]

A win at Boro would do some serious damage to those below us.
I've a feeling that Boro will try and rough us up on Saturday but I'm pretty confident we'll do it.

[morpheus2]

This must be looking better after today...

[Goddy]

Palace 20
Hull 13
Swansea 11
Boro 10
Sunderland 9

One team now in single figures!!! Excellent.

[bfcmik]

Swansea have to get 8 points more than us in their final 6 games to pull level on points and we currently have a +18 goal difference advantage over them making it effectively 9 extra points required.

On form, Stoke would appear to be the team on 36 points most under threat!

[Goddy]

...put another way, if Swansea and Boro each lose 4 more games (possible), we can afford to lose every game from here and still stay up (assuming Sunderland don't go mad, of course, and start winning pretty much every game). (Sunderland only have to lose 3 out of their remaining 8 games for us to be above them at the end of the season, come what may).

[dibraidio]

Are Sunderland on 6 now?

[dibraidio]

We're guaranteed to stay out of the bottom 3 until April 30th when Swansea go to Old Trafford.
If Boro win all four of their games they could draw level with us that day too...but they'd have to beat Arsenal and Man City to do that.

Even if they did they'd have away trips to Chelsea and Liverpool to come in their last 3 games when we'd be at home to West Brom and West Ham.

[Goddy]

Are Sunderland on 6 now?

Yep - Sunderland now on 6. In theory, they could be on zero - which means we couldn't finish bottom of the league - after next weekend's fixtures if we win at Everton and they lose to WHU. Unlikely eventualities (at least as far as next weekend is concerned) but possible.......

[mkmel]

Baring in mind the goal differences I would say the magic numbers are

Hull 9
Swansea 7
Middlesbrough 9
Sunderland 3

Add 1 on to Hull Swansea and Sunderland if you want to be ridiculously ultra pessimistic

[Vegas Claret]

Mkmel you need to give someone a like, I spoiled your equilibrium !

[Goddy]

It would be disappointing if we weren't mathematically safe after game 36 (WBA) given how the magic numbers have dropped (consistently) across the season.

[mkmel]

Mkmel you need to give someone a like, I spoiled your equilibrium !

There you go!

Now don't go liking this post or I'll be chasing my tail

[Garnerssoap]

Boro Swansea and hull all still to play Sunderland
So that can be factored in
Basically a late Sunderland rally would do us fine
Pity the others don't still have to play each other as it's a bonus 3 off either total or 2 off both

[Spijed]

Boro play Arsenal at home tonight so hopefully they'll go down by 3.

[mkmel]

Edit after Middlesbrough's defeat tonight

Baring in mind the goal differences I would say the magic numbers are

Hull 9
Swansea 7
Middlesbrough 7
Sunderland 3

Add 1 on to Hull Swansea and Sunderland if you want to be ridiculously ultra pessimistic

[evensteadiereddie]

Hull have to win 2 and draw one of their last 5 to pass us. v Watford H, Soton A, S'land H, Palace A, Spurs H
Swansea have to win 3 of the last 5 to pass us. v Stoke H, Man U A, Everton H, S'land A ,WBA H.
That's assuming we lose all our last five.
I know whose shoes I'd rather be in....

[Vince Fontaine]

Hull............10
Swansea.......8
Boro............7
Sunderland....4

Three teams down to single figures, we could be mathematically safe in two matches time.
Not long now
UTC

[Wile E Coyote]

Mmm, one of those is united, the next away to Palace. hardly confidence boosting !

[Paul Waine]

Hull............10
Swansea.......8
Boro............7
Sunderland....4

Three teams down to single figures, we could be mathematically safe in two matches time.
Not long now
UTC

I've been predicting mathematically certain to play Premier League again next season after Crystal Palace game for a few weeks - and we've only added 5 points in that time.

UTC

[dibraidio]

We're guaranteed to stay outside the bottom three until May 6th. We're now up to 2 weeks away from the end of the season.

Swansea would need to win their next three to catch us on May 6th.
Boro could draw level with us on May 8th but they'd need to win 4 games in a row including beating Man City at home and Chelsea away.
Sunderland could catch us on the second to last day of the season but they'd still be behind on goal difference. To do that they'd need to win all of their 5 games including Arsenal away. To be honest the other four are winnable, Bournemouth and Swansea at home and Boro and Hull away but they'd have to win as many games as they have all season.

[Goddy]

Sunderland could catch us on the second to last day of the season but they'd still be behind on goal difference. To do that they'd need to win all of their 5 games including Arsenal away. To be honest the other four are winnable, Bournemouth and Swansea at home and Boro and Hull away but they'd have to win as many games as they have all season.

I wouldn't mind Sunderland winning those 4 winnable games (i.e. lose to Arsenal). It would effectively relegate Boro and probably take Swansea down too. It'd probably mean we'd be safe without kicking another ball and leave the final relegation place for S'land and Hull to fight out. Not going to happen, mind (I wouldn't have thought) but probably does mean S'land still have something to fight for.....

[Spijed]

Mmm, one of those is united, the next away to Palace. hardly confidence boosting !

But Swansea have got Utd away and Everton at home after this weekend.

For a team that's got one point in their last six matches it will hardly fill them with confidence.

An eight point gap (nine with GD) is going to very hard to make up in the circumstances.

[Clarets4me]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... =267725110

Bump... Sunderland now effectively gone...

[Vince Fontaine]

Hull............-5...........5
Swansea.......-3...........5
Boro............-3...........1
Sunderland....-6..........-5

One gone, boro to go soon and Swansea need 3 wins from 4 if we lose all 3 remaining matches

UTC

[ElectroClaret]

Lads on a high, we'll get at least a point against West Brom.

COYC!!

[Vince Fontaine]

Hull....................5
Swansea.......-2.....3

Swansea need to win all 3 and we need to lose all 3.
Two wins and one draw for them and three deafeats for us would mean it went down to goal difference and a swing of 15 goals
UTC

[CnBtruntru]

It could come down to Swansea winning all three and us and West Spam having to fight it out to see who goes down, but not to worry we will be safe by 5 pm Saturday, 4-0 win against the Brom.

[Vince Fontaine]

Not officially at zero BUT

Hull........-4......1
Swansea...-1......2

Now Hull need to win each of their matches by 5 goals and hope we lose each of our matches by 5 goals. Now if they do that means crystal palace who they play next, at crystal palace would need to win their last match away at Man Utd
As for Swansea they need to win their last 2 (assuming they beat Everton, they currently lead 1-0) against Sunderland away and WBA at home.
UTC

[Paul Waine]

Bump!

Watford equalise at Chelsea - and Burnley slip to 16th.

EDIT: Chelsea win 4-3. Burnley back above Watford in 15th.

If all Sunday's games go our way, magic numbers show that Burnley could end the season in 11th.

Is it £2m for every place higher up the table?

A lot of "squad building money" still to be played for.

UTC