Laying Half Time Scores

Fretters · Post by **Fretters** » Fri Mar 31, 2017 1:10 pm

Just wondering anybody else on here uses betting exchanges?

I've made a decent amount lately by 'laying' half time scores on Smarkets (you can also use Betfair's exchange but they charge a higher commission). For those not familiar, you use a betting exchange to bet against something happening. So, if a game is 0-0 and you think there will be a goal, you can lay 0-0 and, if you're right, you win the amount you staked (less 2% commission to the exchange). However, you're essentially acting as a bookie so, if you're wrong, you have to pay out a liability to the punters who backed 0-0. So, the longer the game goes on, the odds for the current score will drop to a point where you can lay it without it costing you an absolute fortune in liability. You need to be careful not to lay it too late obviously as your chances of there being another goal are also dropping.

So, lately I've been laying the current half time score in a few games. I usually look at the stats of the current game and, if it's looking pretty boring with very few shots on goal, I'll avoid it. I also look at the two teams' head-to-head record. I usually stake £25 on a lay and wait till the odds of low enough for my liability to be under £150. I've got it wrong a few times and lost the liability, but thankfully I've won enough to leave me in profit.

I've now taken it further and, using stats website Football Form Labs, I've developed a formula to tell me if it's worth laying a half time score or not. The formula takes into account the head-to-head record but also the two teams' respective games so far this season, in terms of how many had second half goals. The formula then gives me a number for each game. If the lay odds are below this number at half time then it's worth a lay, if the odds are above then it isn't.

I've applied this formula to all Premier League games and Championship games tomorrow. For the majority of games, the number comes out at around 3.5. It's rare you'll find odds this low at half time so I'll steer clear of these. However, the following games look interesting:

Brentford v Bristol City (12.7)
Rotherham v Fulham (12.6)
Newcastle v Wigan (10.6)
Hull v West Ham (6.1)
Wolves v Cardiff (5.9)
Man Utd v West Brom (5.8)

Remember, the number in brackets is the odds of their NOT being another goal in the second half so it's only worth laying if the exchange lay odds are below this number. It's rare you will find odds much below odds of 5.8 which is why I've only listed the games above. I won't be laying these games blindly, I'll be checking the first half stats and looking out for other factors (adverse weather conditions, red cards etc.)

If this system does well, I'll be working this out for all games every weekend. I'll post an update next week with my results.

cricketfieldclarets · Post by **cricketfieldclarets** » Fri Mar 31, 2017 1:18 pm

Nice one. Some effort gone into studying this.

BFCCRAZY Gave some tips yesterday after studying horse form - all 6 came in. Would have been a nice accumulator.

I always find it interesting how many of our games under dyche are half time draw full time burnley.

cutsy123 · Post by **cutsy123** » Fri Mar 31, 2017 1:50 pm

cricketfieldclarets wrote:Nice one. Some effort gone into studying this.

BFCCRAZY Gave some tips yesterday after studying horse form - all 6 came in. Would have been a nice accumulator.

I always find it interesting how many of our games under dyche are half time draw full time burnley.

2.00pm Lingfield

Saleh

Fretters · Post by **Fretters** » Fri Mar 31, 2017 1:55 pm

cricketfieldclarets wrote:Nice one. Some effort gone into studying this.

BFCCRAZY Gave some tips yesterday after studying horse form - all 6 came in. Would have been a nice accumulator.

I always find it interesting how many of our games under dyche are half time draw full time burnley.

Took me a little while to come up with the formula but now it's just a case of inputting four numbers into a spreadsheet to get my number.

happyclaret is handy with the racing tips too.

cricketfieldclarets · Post by **cricketfieldclarets** » Fri Mar 31, 2017 2:02 pm

cutsy123 wrote:2.00pm Lingfield

Saleh

And that my firends is why I dont do horses!

Fretters · Post by **Fretters** » Fri Mar 31, 2017 2:06 pm

£10 down the drain for me too! Should have laid it instead

Quickenthetempo · Post by **Quickenthetempo** » Fri Mar 31, 2017 2:13 pm

Anyone who has followed Cutsy123 tips will know he has more money than sense. In fact I think he his a millionaire that just bets to pass the time.

titsoutforthelads · Post by **titsoutforthelads** » Fri Mar 31, 2017 7:06 pm

Just make sure you keep Joey in the loop

bfccrazy · Post by **bfccrazy** » Sat Apr 01, 2017 2:42 am

cricketfieldclarets wrote:Nice one. Some effort gone into studying this.

BFCCRAZY Gave some tips yesterday after studying horse form - all 6 came in. Would have been a nice accumulator.

I always find it interesting how many of our games under dyche are half time draw full time burnley.

The one I gave you earlier came in too

Not been a bad few days for one of lads wanting some tips. Especially when he started with £10 in his account.

*was funny that he's started ignoring all info from a "tipster service" as their nap finished last in the race I gave him the winner in

cricketfieldclarets · Post by **cricketfieldclarets** » Mon Apr 03, 2017 11:48 pm

How did you get on fretters

happyclaret17 · Post by **happyclaret17** » Tue Apr 04, 2017 1:09 am

I spent ages looking at corners markets some years ago...exactly 12 corners in a game showed big profits if you backed them blind at the price ( think it was 8/1 but true odds should have been 11/2 but cannot swear by that )...doing doubles and trebles compounded the profit further...not sure of the odds currently available but perhaps worth doing selectively depending on both teams corner stats.

paulatky · Post by **paulatky** » Tue Apr 04, 2017 11:03 am

Bfccrazy your screen shots prove nothing.
Make a deposit ,withdraw the same amount.
Get same as your screenshot.
Just saying like.

bfccrazy · Post by **bfccrazy** » Tue Apr 04, 2017 11:21 am

paulatky wrote:Bfccrazy your screen shots prove nothing.
Make a deposit ,withdraw the same amount.
Get same as your screenshot.
Just saying like.

Haha, it's not my slips mate. A mate was asking for tips and he had them on. I'm more gutted as I mentioned to cricketfieldclarets at the time that I hadn't backed the tips I gave to the lad...... Which meant they'd all come in (sods law).

Fretters · Post by **Fretters** » Tue Apr 04, 2017 12:53 pm

cricketfieldclarets wrote:How did you get on fretters

Sorry, meant to post yesterday but didn't get round to it.

Well, Brentford v Bristol City proved this isn't guaranteed. Despite it being the highest chance of a second half goal - and there being three first half goals - it was all quiet in the second half and I lost £105 in liability.

Thankfully I avoided Utd v WBA as the first half stats were poor. The other four games came in at £25 a pop so, overall, I was left a fiver down. I was one Brentford / BC goal away from £125 profit, so frustrating!

cricketfieldclarets · Post by **cricketfieldclarets** » Tue Apr 04, 2017 12:58 pm

Fretters wrote:Sorry, meant to post yesterday but didn't get round to it.

Well, Brentford v Bristol City proved this isn't guaranteed. Despite it being the highest chance of a second half goal - and there being three first half goals - it was all quiet in the second half and I lost £105 in liability.

Thankfully I avoided Utd v WBA as the first half stats were poor. The other four games came in at £25 a pop so, overall, I was left a fiver down. I was one Brentford / BC goal away from £125 profit, so frustrating!

Thanks. You doing any tonight?

It will have ups and downs no doubt. But I lost over a fiver on saturdays bets on illogical betting

Fretters · Post by **Fretters** » Tue Apr 04, 2017 1:05 pm

cricketfieldclarets wrote:Thanks. You doing any tonight?

It will have ups and downs no doubt. But I lost over a fiver on saturdays bets on illogical betting

Not tonight, but I'll be doing some tomorrow. I'll post the stats when I have them.

Quickenthetempo · Post by **Quickenthetempo** » Tue Apr 04, 2017 2:27 pm

I backed a 2-1 home win with a pound stake for every game for a few weeks. Around 7/1 but the lowest odds of any score, I was trying to play the bookies at their own game of numbers rather than thought. I covered what I put on but no real profit. The third week I put just the most likely but the games I left out game produced some 2-1s and would of made a decent profit.

Fretters · Post by **Fretters** » Tue Apr 04, 2017 3:57 pm

I sometimes back 0-0 and lay it for profit later on (of course, it only takes a goal and you're out). I once did it and then had to go out so couldn't lay and the game finished 0-0 so I was £280 up.

RalphCoatesComb · Post by **RalphCoatesComb** » Tue Apr 04, 2017 4:32 pm

Long-term, there is only one winner and it's not the punter.

This time of year there are some strange results, (Palace at Chelski was a real coupon buster!)

I do Draw H/T with the underdogs to win at F/T When they come in , they pay handsomely but, they don't come in often enough to make at crust at it.

bfccrazy · Post by **bfccrazy** » Tue Apr 04, 2017 4:41 pm

RalphCoatesComb wrote:Long-term, there is only one winner and it's not the punter.

This time of year there are some strange results, (Palace at Chelski was a real coupon buster!)

I do Draw H/T with the underdogs to win at F/T When they come in , they pay handsomely but, they don't come in often enough to make at crust at it.

For football I tend to go for over 1.5/2.5 goals.

Over 1.5 has been quite profitable and I've had a few very nice cashouts and wins on over 2.5 goal accas.

They don't come in often but I usually do silly bets on them on purpose with disposable funds. If one a season lands for over 2.5 goals it means that I am in profit ...... If it doesnt land all season then it just means a pint less on a match day..... Not much to give up.

Walton · Post by **Walton** » Wed Apr 05, 2017 9:29 am

8-fold of Bilbao, Dortmund, Leicester, Wednesday, Aberdeen, Tranmere, Brighton, Atletico came in last night. Tenner on, 19.24/1.

Tranmere threw away a 2 goal lead late on, only to snatch it in injury time.

Fretters · Post by **Fretters** » Wed Apr 05, 2017 1:03 pm

FFS, just posted a long post looking at tonight's games, clicked submit and it disappeared. Can't be arsed typing it all out again, but the games I expect a second half goal in are:

Sheff Utd v Coventry
Arsenal v West Ham
Swansea v Spurs
St Johnstone v Hearts

I'll be watching the half time stats closely before laying any scores.

cricketfieldclarets · Post by **cricketfieldclarets** » Wed Apr 05, 2017 1:58 pm

Arsenal have a real chance playing two games.

Fretters · Post by **Fretters** » Wed Apr 05, 2017 2:03 pm

cricketfieldclarets wrote:Arsenal have a real chance playing two games.

Ha - copied the wrong line on my spreadsheet

Replace with St Johntsone v Hearts.

Fretters · Post by **Fretters** » Wed Apr 05, 2017 9:34 pm

Went on all four tonight and thankfully they all came in. £100 profit.

Spurs was looking a bit dicey, got to 86 minutes without a second half goal, and then there were two!

Fretters · Post by **Fretters** » Wed Apr 05, 2017 9:35 pm

Make that three! Unbelievable.

cricketfieldclarets · Post by **cricketfieldclarets** » Wed Apr 05, 2017 9:40 pm

Fretters wrote:Went on all four tonight and thankfully they all came in. £100 profit.

Spurs was looking a bit dicey, got to 86 minutes without a second half goal, and then there were two!

Did this at HT. Bloody Rangers. Dont know why I bothered they are awful!

Fretters · Post by **Fretters** » Wed Apr 05, 2017 9:49 pm

cricketfieldclarets wrote:Did this at HT. Bloody Rangers. Dont know why I bothered they are awful!

Unlucky

Quickenthetempo · Post by **Quickenthetempo** » Wed Apr 05, 2017 9:55 pm

Bloody Celtic and their missed penalty let me down.

cricketfieldclarets · Post by **cricketfieldclarets** » Wed Apr 05, 2017 9:56 pm

Yep. Was either Rangers or Huddersfield. Typical.

TurfyMoore · Post by **TurfyMoore** » Wed Apr 05, 2017 10:46 pm

Just laid the draw Leones FC v Boyaca Chico in the Columbian Primera B Divison.....Not looking good though.....could be a fix

TurfyMoore · Post by **TurfyMoore** » Wed Apr 05, 2017 11:00 pm

haha Leones have scored

TurfyMoore · Post by **TurfyMoore** » Wed Apr 05, 2017 11:02 pm

2 in 2 minutes, jackpot if over 2.5 comes in

TurfyMoore · Post by **TurfyMoore** » Wed Apr 05, 2017 11:13 pm

3 0 the beers are on me....!!!!

cutsy123 · Post by **cutsy123** » Thu Apr 06, 2017 7:27 am

cricketfieldclarets wrote:Did this at HT. Bloody Rangers. Dont know why I bothered they are awful!

Good job i cashed out as soon as all wer winning. Liverpool are shite

cutsy123 · Post by **cutsy123** » Thu Apr 06, 2017 7:29 am

cutsy123 wrote:Good job i cashed out as soon as all wer winning. Liverpool are shite

Then covered the result

Fretters · Post by **Fretters** » Mon Apr 10, 2017 4:13 pm

I was at a wedding at the weekend so didn't apply my formula to every game. It told me the odds of there not being a goal in the second half of the City v Hull game were very high so I did get on that and it came in.

The odds of there not being a second half goal in tonight's Palace v Arsenal game are 9.38 so I'll probably get on that at half time if the lay odds are below this figure. £25 stake again.

aggi · Post by **aggi** » Mon Apr 10, 2017 5:25 pm

I'm curious why you put weight on the head to head form. Do you mean the results when they have played each other in the past or something else?

Fretters · Post by **Fretters** » Mon Apr 10, 2017 8:58 pm

aggi wrote:I'm curious why you put weight on the head to head form. Do you mean the results when they have played each other in the past or something else?

Exactly that, aggi. The previous games between the two sides can give you an idea of how open the game will be (despite playing staff turnover, different form etc.). For instance, for Palace v Arsenal, the past seven games have seen either two or three goals between the two sides (four with two and three with three). The head to head I use in my formula drills down even further in terms of how many of those games had second half goals. And, all seven of those games had second half goals.

Based on that - and the number of games this season in which each of the two clubs has scored or conceded a second half goal - I'd be surprised if there isn't another goal tonight. My formula told me the odds of there not being another goal are 9.38 and the current lay odds are 7.6 so I'll probably go in soon.

Fretters · Post by **Fretters** » Mon Apr 10, 2017 9:20 pm

And there it is.

Fretters · Post by **Fretters** » Fri Apr 14, 2017 12:58 pm

Today's top four games likely to see second half goals:

Gillingham v Bristol Rovers
Newcastle v Leeds
Norwich v Fulham
Sheff W v Cardiff

I'll be laying whatever score it is half time after I've checked the first half stats.

cricketfieldclarets · Post by **cricketfieldclarets** » Fri Apr 14, 2017 4:51 pm

Well the two of yours that you tipped sorted me.

Look which set of bastards let me down!

cricketfieldclarets · Post by **cricketfieldclarets** » Fri Apr 14, 2017 4:51 pm

Didnt pick the fulham one because of score at time ffs. All three of yours came in.

Fretters · Post by **Fretters** » Fri Apr 14, 2017 6:26 pm

cricketfieldclarets wrote:Didnt pick the fulham one because of score at time ffs. All three of yours came in.

£75 up from laying those three half times, might quit while I'm ahead and leave the Newcastle one... sod it, I know I'll be in when it comes down to it!

cricketfieldclarets · Post by **cricketfieldclarets** » Fri Apr 14, 2017 6:32 pm

Shouldve stuck to them.

cricketfieldclarets · Post by **cricketfieldclarets** » Fri Apr 14, 2017 6:44 pm

Shouldve stuck to them.

Fretters · Post by **Fretters** » Fri Apr 14, 2017 10:05 pm

Went for Newcastle and it came in. Another £100 profit in the bag for today. That's £195 using this system since I started the thread. Will post tomorrow's games in the morning.

Fretters · Post by **Fretters** » Sat Apr 15, 2017 12:26 pm

Slim pickings today, only three hit my criteria for likely second half goals:

RB Leipzig v Freiburg
Pescara v Juventus
Fiorentina v Empoli

Inter v AC Milan came close and that one is currently half time so I'm tempted by it. 2-0 to Inter but Milan have had more shots on goal.

cricketfieldclarets · Post by **cricketfieldclarets** » Sat Apr 15, 2017 7:02 pm

Did you do it? My brother went with some milan clarets in inter section. Dont think theyre happy your bet came in haha

Fretters · Post by **Fretters** » Sun Apr 16, 2017 9:25 am

cricketfieldclarets wrote:Did you do it? My brother went with some milan clarets in inter section. Dont think theyre happy your bet came in haha

I did, thankfully. What drama at the end!