Sunday Racing

[happyclaret17]

2 15 Chamasay 13/8
3 10 flashman 11/10
3 20 zylan 7/4
3 55 English Hero 20/1
4 05 like the sound 3/1
4 30 gnaad 6/4
4 40 phobophiliac 9/2

probably go yankee 2.15...3 10...3 20...4 30
small ew double 3 55...4 40 and ew singles.
and a teeny weeny each way all ew roll up all 7.

plenty of short prices there for combination bets...I have negatives for most of the runners in their races.

3 55 ENGLISH HERO is currently available at 20/1...a price that should be taken.
I am taking on trust that he is fit after a lay off but trainer is in form
trainer at track has run 14 horses...4 won...3 placed
when morris rides he has had 11 rides...4 wins...2 places
this horse ran a really good race from a bad draw at newcastle late last year
this field has a lot of exposed horses and this has the look of an improver
I think there will be money for this today but if he does disappoint he will
be interesting in next few runs where any losses should be recouped with interest.

4 40 PHOBIAPHILIAC is a top of the ground horse...was pulled up last time on soft ground....prior to that ran a great 2nd
conceding weight to a horse who since has won again of higher marks and also ran 3rd at Aintree.

off cycling now...will be checking markets nearer lunch and update before 1 oclock if anything else of interest.

for those that like to watch the golf on sunday evening I will post some bits n bobs mid to late afternoon.

[happyclaret17]

in the time it took me to write the post all the 20s for English hero now gone....16s top price,,,,get the 16s guaranteed.

[PaintYorkClaretnBlue]

I've just got 20/1 on paddy power happy

[Mrpotatohead]

Still 20s on betvictor.

[Bordeauxclaret]

23s on betfair sportsbook

[tim_noone]

I thought this was a football forum?

[TeesClaret]

Put on my last £3 from my Skybet account - Lucky 15 and some singles. I'm hoping to have £100+ by 5 o clock tonight.

[happyclaret17]

tonights golf
DUFNER -13....2/1
DE LAET -12...11/2
KISNER -11...4/1
SIMPSON -11...8/1
POULTER -10....20/1

HOLE BREAK DOWN FOR HOLES 1 TO 6 FIRST 3 ROUNDS
POULTER -7
SIMPSON -7
DUFNER -5
KISNER -5
DE LAET -2

HOLES 7 TO 12
DE LAET -7
DUFNER -5
SSIMPSON -5
KISNER -4
POULTER +1

HOLES 13 TO 18
POULTER -4
DUFNER -3
DE LAET -3
KISNER -2
SIMPSON +1

At the prices I like Kisner...he is fine under pressure...had an average first round but 2nd and 3rd round has had 12 birdies and no bogeys.
Dufner had a good round yesterday but not one I like under pressure.
De Laet is poor under pressure.
Simpson has played well but fell away yesterday....much better on front 9 than back 9.
Poulter doesnt win that side of the pond.

backing Kisner at 5.2 betfair and will use the above hole stats to play around in running.

[TVC15]

Kisner is playing well - not dropped a shot for last 36 holes.

However 2-1 is not a great price in golf when 10 players could easily win it - I think Hatton and McGirt are both easily capable of shooting a 64 or 65 today. Donald loves this track aswell.

Too many ifs and buts for me personally...the week after the Masters is always a really hard one to pick the winner. I would have not gone anywhere near McGirt after being up there all week at Augusta as it takes its toll mentally - but he has played really well this week.

[happyclaret17]

tv Kisner is 4/1...5.2 on betfair...I like mc girt...he was tough when winning jacks tournament...a real solid player...similar to Kisner...can see Kisner shooting 4 or 5 under tonight and that would mean mcgirt would need a wonder round.

[TVC15]

Sorry happy - misread your post.
4/1 is decent on Kisner.
I very rarely bet on golf on the last day - did it once on Hunter Mahan a few years ago and won but usually leave it well alone.

[happyclaret17]

I very rarely bet before last round as well tv...kisner at 4/1 looks decent to me though...most at the top of the leaderboard are wobbly on the last day and kisner doesnt have the same pressure as dufner so is well placed 2 shots back.

[TVC15]

Duffner seems in a better place after getting rid of that screwball wife of his - he is the class player in the field and whilst I would not back him I wouldn't like to bet against him. He has the game to win more majors.

[dogwith3legs]

Not big poster but always read your tips Happy… keep shouting them up !

I enjoy the golf punting…. And this is a wide open event still. Poulter needs a top 4 (or thereabouts) in this or the next tournament to keep his tour card. Donald hasn’t played that well really – his short game has been great and this is usually the key stay on this course…. Scrambling to tight greens. Pre-play bets (e/w pays top 7 places with PP) I have Patrick Cantlay 70/1 and Wes Bryan 60/1 e/w and with top 10 finishes. Also at around the 150/1 mark I took e/w Blair, Kung, Campos & Chad Campbell… taken with top 20 finishes and they are on course for that after rd 3. I bombed out with some other picks so not all positive

In play I took Hatton at the end of round 2 at 40/1 e/w (5 places). I think that’s holding up as a good price. I quite fancy him to go well later and get placed – he is the best golfer in the field on ranking and he left a lot of putts out there yesterday…. It could have been better

[happyclaret17]

well dogwith3legs
it sounds like you follow the golf closely...always interested in others views on sports betting...I only get involved on the last round...dont like doing money when they miss the cut...bottle plays a huge part in my betting/laying and I try to focus on that type of player....look at Matt kuchar...how many top tens does he have...sees the winning line then goes backwards.
hope you post later in week for next tourny...

[cutsy123]

I thought this was a football forum?

Anutha tool
Bore off

[tim_noone]

Anutha tool
Bore off

You blind..... im always on the betfred

[dogwith3legs]

Will try and do that happy, although this is a particularly good tournament for pre-play – it does suit a particular type of golfer and most of the big guns are absent. Also I ignored any golfer that made the cut at the Masters figuring mental fatigue. Hence I left Kisner for this – though I do feel he has a win coming.... he went very well a few weeks back finishing 2nd to Leishman at the Arnold Palmer. I have Wes Bryan, Delaet and Cantlay on that list also. Hadwin was also but he got his win now at the Valspar - actually there was a theory also that those that went well at the Valspar should go well here (similarities with course). That's been proven in some cases I suppose

My punting strategy has been carpet bombing with a lot of picks and getting 3 or 4 of them in for a top 10 or 20 for a profit. Plus betting on Dustin Johnson It was going ok but lost half my pot on the Masters i bombed on Hatton and Fleetwood amongst others after getting my money back on DJ - experience is key there i learned that lesson (again)

Back to DJ - before his fall I seriously had some confidence of him winning all four major's this year and had that at 500/1. He really had been dominant the last few months. He is back for the Wells Fargo in 3 weeks - that course suits long hitters and will be very interested in the price on DJ for that